2025 Broker Predictions

If only we had a crystal ball to predict how 2025 will play out for brokers and loan customers across Australia and NZ. Instead, we have the next best thing –experienced brokers with their fingers on the pulse. Here, we asked four brokers to share their predictions for the year ahead

Meaningful work over awards, continued rise of video marketing, more new brokers and tiered-level clawbacks

- RHIANNA FARNAN COO & DIRECTOR, DERWENT FINANCE

Predictions: Meaningful work over awards, continued rise of video marketing, more new brokers and tiered-level clawbacks

Derwent Finance COO and Director Rhianna Farnan expects to see some major shifts within the broking industry this year.

First, she predicts there will be more new-to-industry brokers than ever before. “The appeal of broking is growing, with flexible work opportunities and high earning potential drawing in fresh talent,” says Rhianna. “This means more competition, but also more innovation. The brokers who stand out will be the ones investing in personal branding, video marketing, and client experience.”

With the general outlook suggesting 2025 will bring a slight drop in interest rates, Rhianna says this will lead to consumers looking to refinance, or look to withdraw equity to renovate their homes.

“Brokers will need to ensure they are in contact with their clients on a regular basis to ensure they are not forgotten about and lessen the chances of a clawback.”

On the topic of clawbacks, Rhianna expects more lenders will follow suit on tiered level clawbacks. “In 2024, we saw some lenders revise their policies, with some reducing the clawback period to 18 months and others introducing a tiered structure where clawbacks decrease the longer a client stays with the lender.

“With more consumers turning to mortgage brokers, I believe lenders will start to favour brokers more and provide better support in this space. As the broker channel continues to grow, lenders will see the value in working more closely with brokers – not just to attract new business but to retain existing clients as well.”

The way brokers connect with clients will continue to evolve through 2025, with the ongoing rise of video marketing, says Rhianna. “Short-form video, vlogs, and educational content will continue to dominate. Expect to see more brokers doubling down on TikTok, Instagram, YouTube, and LinkedIn.”

With industry awards becoming so saturated and the nomination process taking considerable time, Rhianna says she wouldn’t be surprised if brokers directed their time elsewhere. “While recognition

is great, many brokers will shift their energy toward community impact and business growth rather than chasing trophies.”

Following from that, Rhianna predicts prioritising community impact over just-profits will increase. “The conversation around mental health, motivation, and personal development is growing. I believe we’ll see more brokers stepping up – not just as finance professionals but as leaders in mental fitness, wellbeing, and community support. Expect to see more industry-run mental health events, networking groups focused on mindset, and brokers using their platforms to make a real impact.”

In fact, industry events in general will continue to grow, believes Rhianna. “Industry events will only get bigger and better. More brokers will host workshops, panels, and client education nights to build their personal brands and create deeper connections. Networking won’t just be about business—it’ll be about meaningful conversations and collaboration.”

Networking won’t just be about business — it’ll be about meaningful conversations and collaboration - RHIANNA FARNAN

JAMIE SANDERSON –DIRECTOR / PRINCIPAL ADVISER, JAMIE & CO. LENDING

Predictions: home loan refixing, interest rate cuts, debt-to-income ratio, rise of AI.

Like Australia, New Zealand’s loan market is a mixed bag of challenges and opportunities. And, like Rhianna, Jamie & Co Lending Director and Principal Adviser Jamie Sanderson predicts 2025 will be a year of home loan refixing.

“With just over 80% of all mortgage borrowing due to be refixed in 2025 there will be existing and many new home loan clients out there needing advice from a mortgage adviser to look at their refix / refinance options,” says Jamie. “With a number of banks offering up big cashbacks, 2025 could be the year that tests people’s loyalty to their bank if there is a more enticing offer out there.”

Jamie also predicts interest rates will see cuts, but cuts may not be as quick as some would like.

“Whilst the NZ Reserve Bank has signalled they will look to continue to cut the NZ OCR, many home loan clients may be disappointed if they think fixed rates are going to drop at the same speed as the variable home loans. With many clients now coming off from a high to lower rate, advice from a mortgage adviser will be key to helping clients understand their options and trying to pay down their home loans faster.”

Jamie says overall the NZ housing market outlook for 2025 looks like it’s going be a flat year. “With many home owners reluctant to list until they find their next home, it may mean we see properties sit there a little longer than normal.”

Also, 2025 may see more competitive rates in the non-bank space, says Jamie. “With nonbank lenders sitting on money to lend, this year we may see the non-bank space get competitive for business, especially as banks lower their test rates.”

Debt-to-income (DTI) ratios which may officially come in to play in 2025 if Jamie’s prediction is correct. “As lenders reduce their servicing test rates we may start to see the impact on the DTI changes set out by the NZ Reserve Bank in late 2024 on clients’ affordability,” offers Jamie, and warns the first people it will most likely trip up is investors.

Artificial intelligence (AI) will continue to be keenly watched, for all sectors not just broking. “Like all industries, the finance industry is still in its infancy with AI. The big question is: will any New Zealand banks adopt AI to support mortgage advisers or is that still some time away?”

With a number of banks offering up big cashbacks, 2025 could be the year that tests people’s loyalty to their bank. - JAMIE SANDERSON

STEPHEN DINTE – PRINCIPAL MORTGAGE PLANNER, AUSTRALIAN MORTGAGE PLANNERS

Predictions: increased market share and competition with banks, continued rise of technology, inflation, and property prices

Stephen Dinte, Principal Mortgage Planner at Australian Mortgage Planners, observes that the broking industry has changed considerably over his 30-year career, with the “pace of change” likely to continue “accelerating exponentially” in 2025.

“The majors will continue to do everything possible to reduce the market share of brokers compared to their directto-bank business,” says Stephen. “This will include full on promotion of their digital businesses, with pricing differential to discriminate against what brokers can offer via the direct channel, and the distinct possibility that they will look to further lower commissions paid using small reductions to clawback periods to justify their position.

“Meanwhile, the secondtier lenders will continue to embrace brokers as a way to increase their market share. Unfortunately, they will also likely have to lower commissions as the squeeze on margins, due to digital competition, impacting their bottom lines.”

Stephen predicts mergers and acquisitions will continue amongst smaller lenders in an attempt to remain competitive through economies of scale. “I don’t believe the ACCC will continue to allow any more takeovers, by the majors, of the smaller players with the ANZ/ Suncorp merger likely to be the last one we see.”

Of course, in 2025 technology will continue to be king, but Stephen says that may be at the expense of lasting client relationships. “Technology will enable brokers to increase their volumes without the added expense of additional back-office staff, but at the cost of reducing human interaction which is vital in establishing long-term clients who can advocate for the broker’s business.”

Regarding interest rates, Stephen says early signs are showing a lowering of core inflation which in turn signals a lowering of interest rates during the year. "If major world conflicts get resolved this bides well for inflation to continue declining and stay within the RBA's preferred range. The fly in the ointment might be low unemployment numbers leading to an inflationary upward spiral of wages."

Regarding property market, Stephen predicts property prices in major capital cities will continue increasing but at a slight;y lower pace compared to the last couple of years. "Population increases due primarily to migration will be the catalyst for these property increases with delays in getting suitable building blocks to market ensuring the continuation of a significant mismatch between supply and demand.

Stephen also predicts there will be a quiet couple of months leading up to the Federal election. “Consumers tend to take a waitand-see attitude resulting in a lowering of auction clearance rates and a corresponding reduction in the demand for housing finance. Post-election, regardless of result, the market will again start to move in a positive direction."

Consumers tend to take a wait-and-see attitude (leading up to an election) resulting in a lowering of auction clearance rates and a corresponding reduction in the demand for housing finance

- Stephen Dinte

TRENT CARTER – PARTNER, ACCENDO FINANCIAL

Prediction: continued rise of SMEs seeking broker assistance

Western Australia-based broker and partner at Accendo Financial, Trent Carter predicts a continued rise in small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs) seeking broker assistance for finance.

“While residential lending has reached unprecedented levels, SME and commercial lending remain relatively underrepresented by brokers,” says Trent. “However, I feel the tide is shifting as SMEs across Australia are starting to call on brokers to help them navigate a complex lending landscape to get access to capital efficiently.

“Brokers are uniquely positioned to address this demand, offering expertise and options that traditional channels often lack, particularly for businesses seeking tailored finance solutions to grow, manage cash flow, or invest in new opportunities.

“Business sentiment in 2025 is likely to be characterised by cautious optimism. While many SMEs will proceed carefully given the lingering economic u n ce r t a i n t y, s e c to r s s u c h as Agribusiness, healthcare, technology and green industries are poised to thrive. For brokers, this highlights the importance of relationship-driven lending.

“SMEs want more than just funding – they seek trusted advisors who understand their business goals and can offer tailored strategies to secure the right mix of financial products. Building and maintaining these relationships will be a cornerstone of success for brokers, enabling them to provide real value to clients and deepen their market share.

“Finally, I see SMEs doubling d o w n o n r e s i l i e n c e a n d adaptability, driving opportunities for brokers to assist in funding diversification, digitisation, and even mergers or acquisitions.”

Trent says becoming an SME- focused broker requires more than just accreditations – it demands a combination of skills, confidence, and a deep understanding of the SME landscape. “Programs like the FBAA’s Certified Finance Broker (CFB) certification are essential for brokers who aspire to work with SMEs, providing the knowledge and tools needed to navigate this dynamic and rewarding sector with confidence.”