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Vol 20 No 12, April 4, 2022
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Top analyst issues China warning Nigel Stirling nigel.g.stirling@gmail.com
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HINA’S role as the biggest buyer of New Zealand’s primary products is under threat as its struggle with the United States for global preeminence reaches a new level of intensity, a top analyst believes. Rabobank’s Singapore-based global analyst Michael Every says the US is incensed by China’s failure to condemn Russia’s attack on Ukraine and is readying economic sanctions should it go further and provide military backing. Trade-limiting sanctions have been likened to economic weapons of mass destruction, with the potential to far exceed the damage to both the US and Chinese economies that followed the tit-for-tat tariffs on billions of dollars of trade between the two countries initiated by former US President Donald Trump in 2018. Many analysts believe the damage to both countries’ economies would be so severe that the US would be unlikely to pull the trigger on sanctions nor would China provoke it to do so. Every, however, isn’t so sure China is ready to back down. “They can afford to do it. And the historical likelihood is that
they will at some point … if we carry on the dynamic we are in now it will be to a greater degree than anyone thought possible and sooner than anyone thought possible,” Every said.
If you put all your eggs in one basket and somebody decides to cut off the handle because they don’t like the basket, then you go down with that basket. Michael Every Rabobank The US, too, could not be counted on to back away from its threats, he said. Russia’s stranglehold on European oil and gas had given the US pause for thought about its own reliance on imports from China. While sourcing fewer of its consumer goods from China would push up the cost of living, for Americans it was a cost the US was increasingly looking like it could be willing to pay. “The alternative is that if you
WEANING: Preparing calves for the Haast calf sales is Courtney Landreth from Waitoto Cattle, Haast. Photo Vicki O’Connor
Sale boosts covid-disrupted Haast Neal Wallace neal.wallace@globalhq.co.nz COVID has been especially tough on the economy of the South Island’s Haast community, so when about 1000 calves were sold this week, West Coasters rallied around. “The Haast economy has been diminished dramatically by covid affecting fisheries and tourism, so this was a chance
do not do that you can never have control of those supply chains and from a national security perspective you are just waiting for another country like China
for the community to enjoy a social gathering,” local farmer Kim Landreth said. Community groups raised money by providing catering and ran raffles, which Landreth said was helped by perfect weather and excellent quality calves. PGG Wrightson agent Craig Knight said it was an especially strong sale for medium and light cattle.
to do something like Russia [has done] and you cannot do anything about it,” he said. Every said the scenario he was outlining threatened to pull the
Top Angus and Angus-cross steers sold for $990 to $1000 and heifers $820-$830, medium Angus heifers $750 and top Hereford steers $880 and medium $780-$790. Calves of medium to light quality sold for $550-$660. Buyers came from the North Island and Canterbury, but the dry weather in Southland meant many buyers were largely absent.
rug on the decades-old global free trade model, where countries allocated their economy’s
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