3 minute read
Looking Ahead to the Next 20 Years
LOOKING AHEAD: NEXT 20 YEARS
EVOLVING THREAT
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Potential adversaries continue to evolve. This requires a flexible and dynamic response from NSDD. Whether designated rogue regimes or proliferators, areas of instability, uncontrolled areas, breakaway regions NSDD dedicates specialized resources, expertise, and cooperation to mitigate these threats as quickly as possible.
This approach has led NSDD to assess regional and subregional smuggling pathways, prioritize possible exploitation of commercial transportation routes, research the activities and the nature of criminal groups, and enable partners to identify and interdict illicit activities occurring in areas outside of and between official crossing points.
STRATEGIC POSTURE
As expected, NSDD’s strategies for implementation and sustainability have matured and adapted in response to internal and external changes. How NSDD completes its mission now is not the same as implemented 20 years ago. Similarly, how NSDD addresses the risk of nuclear smuggling in the future is expected to evolve as the threat, technologies, and methodologies evolve. However, NSDD’s core strengths lie within the experience of the implementation process and framework – covering risk identification and assessment, equipment use and capabilities, deep understanding and expertise in radiation detection and associated technologies, adult learning, relationship development, and sustainment through continued engagement.
NSDD, as part of its collaborative US interagency efforts to survey and monitor the current and future horizon of R/N smuggling risks, continually seeks input and suggestions to its strategic plans. Working across the nuclear security spectrum and connecting seemingly disparate organizations, NSDD structures and validates strategies with input from a wide range of USG partners, internal and external collaborators and perhaps most importantly, validates the proof of concept through pilots, exercises and other initiatives with NSDD’s foreign partners. NSDD maintains dedicated groups that continually monitor the environment and regularly conducts strategic, programmatic and individual project reviews.
FUTURE OF NSDD
The world 20 years ago is very different from today and it’s highly likely that the next 20 years will present unanticipated challenges and opportunities to mitigate the risk of R/N material smuggling. NSDD will continue to be a leader in preventing terrorist acquisition of these materials and will remain at the forefront of operational and technical engagement with foreign partners from law enforcement and intelligence agencies.
NSDD’s history is one of continuous adaption and improvement. Over 20 years, NSDD through its partnerships with industry has lead new approaches, technical advances, improved detection capability and usability for partners and has advanced systems integration and data analysis. NSDD has created approaches to better meet the needs of our partners and improve their indigenous capabilities to operate, train, and maintain the systems provided by NSDD. Through adaptation and adoption, NSDD will continue to develop and rely on strong partnerships cemented in a global belief in the importance of countering nuclear and radioactive smuggling threats.
Moving forward, NSDD will identify and engage agencies that are actively involved in counter-smuggling missions and will improve their broad spectrum effectiveness to detecting and interdicting materials suitable for weapons of mass effect. NSDD will also reach out to agencies that are newcomers to addressing this evolving mission. Employing an integrated strategy and approach that improves a partner’s capability to target, identify, detect, and interdict illicit trafficking which includes monitoring and awareness of their areas of responsibility, early identification of anomalies and suspicious activities, novel approaches to deploy improved detectors in innovative methods, and quick deployment methods to respond.
NSDD will continue to develop nuclear forensics capabilities so that interdicted material can be identified and traffickers prosecuted. Since these efforts will have an overall impact, NSDD will help partners understand the impact of their operations and along with assessing external impacts and changes, adapt their approach to keep traffickers off-balance, uncertain of interdiction capabilities and overall increase their perceived probability of failure. NSDD, together with partners worldwide, is poised to continue to lead the effort to strengthen international capabilities to deter, detect, and investigate smuggling of R/N materials.
