Premier League: Who avoids the drop?

Rhys Wallis assesses the survival chances of the Premier League relegation candidates

AS May rolls around, it is always crunch time in the Premier League, and with three (or, for some teams, four) matches left in the League season, there are battles at both ends of the table. The relegation race, however, looks the most competitive, with seven teams still facing the possibility of playing in England’s second tier next season. Everyone knows about the worlds of difference between Premier League money, and Championship money, so these final fixtures in the season will potentially be crucial for those seven clubs, and three of them will not like the outcome. Let’s take a look at the seven relegation candidates, and how they might fare over the final stretch.

Southampton: Fixtures — Fulham (h), Brighton (a), Liverpool (h)

Let’s start with the easiest one of the lot: Southampton will be a Championship club next season. After a dismal run of form under Nathan Jones that made Ralph Hassenhüttl look like prime Ferguson, the Saints will be marching straight into 20th place by the looks of things. Just when you thought a draw against Arsenal might have been able to resurrect their season with six matches to go, they’ve bottled it against Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest in the last few games, and now face a very tricky run in, against teams with plenty to play for. If you’d have told a Southampton fan at the start of the season that they would do the double over Chelsea, end City’s hopes of a Quadruple, and get to the EFL Cup Semi Final, they might have been over the moon: as it stands though, they’ve done all that this season, and are still headed for the drop.

Leeds United: Fixtures — Newcastle (h), West Ham (a), Tottenham (h)

Big Sam is back in the Premier League, and with a win record of roughly one win every 4.5 matches, Leeds fans had better hope that he improves on his ratio, as he stepped into the Elland Road dugout with only four matches to save the Yorkshire club’s Premier League status. Leeds looked bereft of ideas under Jesse Marsch (himself only hired last season, to arrest the slide brought on by Marcelo Bielsa run- ning out of steam) and I really don’t know what was going on in the boardroom when they turned to Javi Gracia… but it clearly didn’t work. Now facing a real test over their final set of fixtures, Leeds must hope that the veteran manager really is as good as Klopp, Guardiola, and Arteta. For my money though, I’d fancy Leeds to take it to the final day — as long as they stop conceding stupid goals, which is quite a big ask…

Leicester City: Fixtures — Liverpool (h), Newcastle (a), West Ham (h)

Leicester have flattered to deceive this season, with several false dawns from the Midlands club, and the opportunity to become the first of the 21st century Premier League Champions to be relegated appears to be quite a strong pull on the Foxes. A hideous collapse against Fulham last time out will only rattle them more as they approach a tough set of fixtures, with their only realistic chance of a win on current form coming against a potentially European-distracted West Ham on the final day of the season. Losses against the teams around them have really not helped Leicester, and whilst they have managed some creditable results, like their victory over Spurs, it doesn’t look like Dean Smith will be able to pull them out of the hole Brendan Rogers sleepwalked them into.

Everton: Fixtures — Man City (h), Wolves (a), Bournemouth (h)

Two home fixtures for the Toffees may mean that they can look a little more confident than they perhaps ought to feel in their position, especially with the opportunity to play Manchester City at their most distracted: right in the middle of the two Real Madrid legs. For that reason, it looks like Sean Dyche could pull off what seemed nearly impossible not that long ago, and keep Everton in the Premier League (not that they would actually particularly deserve it, on the basis of their Lampardera form, and the nonsense in the boardroom). The Merseyside outfit have struggled this season, but look to be putting together a team ethos and cohesion that they simply didn’t have before Dyche-ball revolutionised the Goodison Park faithful, and — despite some missteps in recent weeks — it looks like we’ll be hearing that famous Z-Cars walkout music on Match of the Day for at least another season to come.

Nottingham Forest: Fixtures — Chelsea (a), Arsenal (h), Crystal Palace (a)

If you’d asked me at the start of the season whether or not a Nottingham Forest side facing these final three fixtures could survive in the Premier League, I would have laughed in your face. It looks like an incredibly tough task for Forest on paper, but — crucially, the game isn’t played on paper. Chelsea (now safe themselves, only just) may look distracted, but they have plenty to play for, knowing that consistently performing poorly means that Boehly will just go and buy someone else to take their squad position. Arsenal have turned into a world-class team since that loss at the hands of their title rivals, and will be looking to keep the pressure on City, meaning I think at most, Forest can hope for two points out of those matches. All of this leaves a rejuvenated Palace away day to potentially save the Forest season, which will be more of a test than it once was. All that being said, I think it is between Leeds and Forest for the final relegation spot, and the last day of the season will seal one of their fates, and remember: Forest have the worst goal difference except for Southampton…

West Ham (Fixtures: Brentford (a), Leeds United (h), Leicester City (a) and Bournemouth (Fixtures: Crystal Palace (a), Man United (h), Everton (a)

I’ll put it simply — if either of these teams go down this season, it would be an escape of gargantuan proportions from some of the clubs below them. West Ham might feasibly be distracted by their European adventure, but Bournemouth, particularly on current form, should be able to get the points from Palace, and perhaps Everton, that they need to stay up. Even if they both lose all of their remaining fixtures, I can’t see the teams below them making up the gap. Welcome to staying in the Premier League, Bournemouth, it’s good to have you back, even if your ground is tiny.

So there you have it, a rundown of the final fixtures for the teams facing the drop this season. It’s been a long campaign, and we have to lose three teams at the end of it, so I don’t think any of the clubs here can have any complaints if they do go down; for most of the season, they just haven’t been good enough. Whoever it ends up being, I think we’ll see one of them in a season’s time, and as for those who just about survive relegation, well I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re in the same predicament in about 12 months’ time. All anyone really knows, however, is that these are going to be feisty matches, with a lot on the line, so they’re definitely worth a watch.

WHEN I previewed the 2023 Formula 1 season back in March, I said that this season “looked set to give us an epic championship battle.” Alas, that has not proven to be the case, and just four races in, it seems we can already crown Red Bull with both world titles. Nonetheless, there has been plenty to keep fans enthused, both on and off track, so far in 2023.

Although Red Bull have dominated the opening five races, all hope is not lost for a potential battle for the Drivers’ Championship — but this time, coming from two teammates. Red Bull’s Verstappen and Pérez have looked relatively evenly matched in the opening races, with three wins versus two. On race day, two-time world champion Verstappen seems to have that tiny edge over his teammate — but could Pérez benefit from a bit of luck to continue the fight?

Unfortunately for the rest of the grid, there is little hope of catching up in the near future. However, there is an epic fight between Ferrari, Mercedes and newcomers Aston Martin for that coveted P2 in the Constructors’ Championship. Surprisingly, Aston Martin have looked the favourites so far, helped by the signing of double world champion Fernando Alonso. He was on the podium three times in the first three races, and even at 41 years old, has proven he’s still got plenty in the tank.

With Mercedes’ pace looking heavily track-specific, the main rivals to Aston Martin seem to be Ferrari. Charles Leclerc was finally able to kickstart his 2023 campaign in Baku, after a run of abysmal luck in the opening three races that was bad even by Leclerc’s standards — two DNFs and a grid penalty. He turned that around in Azerbaijan, perhaps spurred on by his first ever song reaching the top ten in the iTunes charts, by taking two pole positions and his first podium of the year. However, the Ferrari of old crept back in in Miami, and Aston Martin seem to have the momentum at the moment. Car development will start in earnest from the next race, which has the potential to shake up this three-way battle — and perhaps even bring fifth-placed Alpine into play.

Formula 1 action will be relentless in the next couple of weeks, with a Mediterranean triple-header in Imola, Monaco and Spain. Hopefully the warm weather of the European summer will be able to heat up this 2023 season.

Harry Craig