Ron DeSantis launches 2024 Presidential campaign

THE presidential candidacy of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has been perhaps the most widely discussed among Washington political operatives over the past two years. DeSantis’ penchant for passing conservative and so-called “anti-woke” legislation within the heavily Republican state government concerning anti-abortion and antiLGBT measures. These cumulatively led to the conventional wisdom that DeSantis offered a form of “respectable” Trumpism which could realise the conservative crusade across the US without the more questionable aspects of former President Trump’s personality. These high aspirations have

Examines

been met with a hard slap by reality. The latest polling aggregates have DeSantis only on around 20 per cent of the national Republican primary vote, while Trump has over 50 per cent of the vote. The most significant moment of DeSantis’ nascent political campaign is its disastrous launch on a Twitter Space hosted by Twitter CEO Elon Musk, a questionable venue for a campaign which requires broad support across the country anyway.

Trump has over 50 per cent of the [Reupublican] vote

The constantly crashing audio livestream led to mass confusion and ridicule, including a parody from Trump which included former Vice President Dick Cheney persistently coughing, the Devil and Adolf Hitler. Perhaps even more concerning for DeSantis, his on-air interviews include unfortunate images of DeSantis’ face with his mouth agape, eyes crinkled, and chin high in the air. Much like how the unfortunate “Dean Scream” of 2004 Democratic presidential candidate and former Vermont Governor Howard Dean ended his hopeful candidacy, a perception among the American people that DeSantis is simply too weird and unlikeable could be terminal for his campaign. As well

Launch

as Dean, another apt comparison may be the failed 2016 campaign of former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, scion of the Bush political dynasty, who was seen as the favourite to win the Republican primary until floundering after scrutiny and ridicule from other candidates, most notably Trump.

The key question for the 2024 Republican primary field is not the viability of DeSantis taking the stage at the Republican convention in Milwaukee, but if it is even possible for that person to be anyone except Donald Trump, if the current polling numbers do not change dramatically over the next year. Although this may seem like a very big caveat, it is worth considering the grip that Trump has over the Republican voter base (even if it is weaker than under his presidency). A poll released in January 2023 revealed that 65 per cent of Republicans believe that loyalty to Trump is important, while only 35 per cent do not. With Trump’s current vice grip on 50 per cent of primary voters, the antiTrump wing of the party must rely on one unifying figure who could make the contest somewhat competitive.

Looking forward from DeSantis, the currently announced alternative candidates in the primary have so far had even less impact. Two candidates from South Carolina may present the greatest threat to President Joe Biden in the general election: Senator Tim Scott and former Governor Nikki Haley. Both being from an ethnic minority with establishment and relatively moderate views, they would be the furthest away from the appearance of the radical MAGA candidate which Biden and the Democrats present the modern Republican party as being. However, Scott and Haley are currently polling at 2 per cent and 4.5 per cent respectively, with other candidates like former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson are polling similarly poorly.

The currently announced alternative candidates in the primary has so far had even less impact

Repeating the refrain that the first results from the Iowa Caucus are not until early 2024 and eight months is a lifetime in American politics, the stability of Trump’s polling position compared to the collapse of DeSantis’ and everyone else’s continued languishing may mean that the 2024 Republican primary may — atypically for American politics — be the most boring in a generation.