COVID 19 Climate

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Stopping runaway carbon emissions and ascending temperatures is seen as our biggest challenge as a global society. Has the carbon crash from lockdown during the Covid 19 pandemic shown us all that a carbon free world is at least possible?

First, let us recap on climate change for a moment. Climate Since the Covid 19 crisis, however, a lot has changed, including just change goals can vary in different countries, but the maybe, us too. European Union wishes to be the first major economy to be climate neutral by 2050. This would perhaps give the world Reality shock a chance to keep global temperatures under the 1.5 degrees There are big lessons that the Covid 19 pandemic has taught us in Celsius aim, this century. relation to our climate emergency.

The problem is real and here now. In 2019, the global surface One of them, and perhaps the most important one, is that there are temperature of the Earth was the second warmest it has been since large scale scientific inevitabilities for our future on the course we have modern record keeping began in 1880. It was also recorded as 0.98 set, and we should no longer sideline them. degrees Celsius warmer than the 1951 to 1980 mean, according to Covid 19 may have surprised us, but as a social, intercontinental, rapidly NASA. In 2019, there were many records set, in fact almost 400 allexpanding species and one prone throughout history to be attacked by time high temperatures were seen in the northern hemisphere. new deadly viruses, arguably, we could have been better prepared.

If the trend continues as it is, it is estimated that temperatures Around a hundred years ago, in 1918 the world faced Spanish influenza may rise by 3-5 degrees Celsius by 2100, which would be a major which took 50100 million people’s lives and since then we have had several catastrophe and perhaps even lead a path to our demise. less severe pandemics, as recently as 2009, facing the H1N1 virus. H1N1’s

It is a climate emergency, but for some people it doesn’t really feel death toll was estimated as somewhere between 151,000-579,000, with an like an emergency, which could be the biggest problem of all. For infection rate in the region of 11-21% of the global population. Pandemics those who do ‘get it’ and feel the fear, the onslaught of negative media are something humans have regularly had to endure through history. messages about impending doom from climate change makes the Yet, Covid 19 has truly shocked the majority of us. Why? Spanish flu, challenge seem unsurmountable, like the changes needed are simply which was a horror story of enormous magnitude for humanity, was an impossible ask. in another era, and people will not be alive to remember it. Today, we

also perhaps have a disproportionate faith in technology to solve every human problem.

It is the massive personal impact on all of our lives that has shaken us with Covid 19. It is the shock of isolating, of witnessing a killer virus in our midst, in our city, town or village and sometimes in our home. This pandemic has given us more than fear and isolation but a heightened sense that we should not ignore science, especially warnings by science. As a species we have been served a lesson by nature in cause and effect that no textbook could convey in the same way. For a supposedly unstoppable, economy driven world, it has done the unimaginable and stopped us all in our tracks.

A pandemic was always expected in scientific circles and with equal certainty, escalating, destructive climate change will happen too, if we are unable to collectively make significant changes in our way of life.

Of course, some climate scientists believe we are already teetering on or even past the tipping point of no return. Several years ago it was presumed a rise in average global temperature of 5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels was the tipping point, but more recent reports by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that the point of no return may be between 1 and 2 degrees Celsius – which we are currently heading for.

For some reason, the science does not scare populations enough into radical action and that maybe because we are not shocked into reaction. Climate change is literally a slow burner, like watching a clock ticking down. For now, putting aside incidents of weather phenomena, for most people it’s not possible to directly experience its threat by stepping outside the front door. Covid 19, in contrast is a deadly virus, potentially in every human being you encounter.

Covid 19 presents us with an arresting event we cannot look away from. What’s new, is that this generation now has the shared experience of a world emergency first hand that should remind all of us and especially our leaders that in a similar way, climate change is both real and will - if we return to the ‘old normal’ - impact on everything. We can also see how viruses cannot be swept away with dismissive political remarks and reassurance, and nor can science. There are those who are using Covid 19 as a comparative example of the level of impact that climate change could have on all of us.

Former US President Barrack Obama warned the world via Twitter: “We’ve all had to adapt to cope with a pandemic. Climate change will force far harsher changes on our kids. All of us should follow the young people who’ve led the efforts to protect our planet for generations, and demand more of our leaders at every level.”

You could argue, all the things that our young climate change protesters have demanded in rallies, on podiums and in broadcasts, have inadvertently been implemented via this human disaster, in lockdown – if only temporarily. In an unprecedented way we have stopped using our vehicles, we have worked from home, we have stopped air traffic, abandoned the highstreets and halted production in manufacturing. In essence, we have put our everyday human activity on pause. These collective actions dramatically reduced our impact on climate change.

Whilst for many this collective stopping has been unpleasant or depressing, there is no question that the environment has benefited tremendously.

In the last few months analysts tracked what is described as a huge ‘carbon crash’, the biggest ever in recorded history.

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The journal Nature Climate Change claimed that carbon emissions dropped by a sixth, by about 17 percent at the peak of confinement measures in early April, around the world, compared to levels in 2019.

There have been large falls in carbon output before, such as the fall in CO2 in the wake of World War II that dropped by around 800 million tonnes and a worldwide recession in the early 1980s saw C02 fall by a billion tonnes. These crashes don’t come close to what occurred around the world in lockdown, where emissions dropped by as much as 3 billion tonnes. This follows a decline in energy use equivalent to the entire energy demand in India, the world’s third largest consumer, in a year.

The world’s energy watchdog, International Energy Agency (IEA) claims that the coronavirus pandemic has caused the biggest global energy shock in 70 years. The demand for fossil fuels has collapsed to a greater degree than in the global financial crisis. A report by the IEA stated we have experienced the most severe fall in energy demand since the second world war which could trigger a multi-decade low for global consumption of oil, gas and coal. Global electricity demand is also down by around 20%. Interestingly, renewable energy will continue to grow. It is clear a different kind of energy industry will emerge from the crisis and there are calls for stimulus packages to focus on a green recovery.

When you halt industry in such an abrupt way, and take people off the streets and roads, wildlife and nature returns, to find a foothold for a moment without human interruption. We have all seen what it looks like now, to have a glimpse of a natural world free from fossil fuels.

If not on our daily walks, we have seen those images on the internet of ‘people-free’ landmark locations now being explored by animals. Venice has the clearest canals in 60 years because of tourism drops and less boat traffic. Seabirds and fish are now visible at the canals. Orcas have been seen in new places in Vancouver’s Burrell Inlet, the bear population of Yosemite Park in California in the US has quadrupled and the waves light up with blue bioluminescent plankton for the first time in 60 years at Mexico’s Acapulco beach.

Without cars on the road, animals are not killed and without people around, cities are explored by animals more used to hiding in the recesses. Wild animals are waking up, without the pressures from people for the first time in a long time and they like it. And for us, under strict lockdown rules of exercising close to home, without traffic noise and places to go to, we have noticed and appreciated nearby birds, trees and natural things that have always been barely visible to us, in plain sight.

Reducing traffic, industry and carbon output is not just about saving nature around us either, it is directly saving human lives in only a short time of reduction. Orbiting satellites have proven that nitrogen dioxide levels have fallen in China. Indeed, China had a significant reduction in air pollution because of the lockdown. One analysis by Stanford University scientist Marshall Burke, who used data from sensors in four Chinese cities estimated that two months of pollution reduction “likely saved the lives of 4,000 kids under 5 and 73,000 adults over 70 in China”.

Closer to home in Europe, a study at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) stated that there were 11,000 fewer deaths in European countries under coronavirus lockdown due to a sharp drop in fossil fuel pollution during April.

In the UK it was found that in some cities the nitrogen dioxide levels fell by up to 60% compared to the same time last year. In India, where air pollution can be stifling, lockdown improved air quality to satisfactory levels in nearly 90% of the 103 cities, it was claimed by Bloomberg Green.

Even the sky is bluer and that’s official. William Collins, a climate professor at the University of Reading in the UK indicated in a recent media interview that the layer of haze that pollution brings to the air is missing in the usual locations, making the sky look a richer, deeper blue than before.

We have for the first time in the Industrial era, been shown what life is like without a fully-fledged carbon economy and although we miss our daily rituals, many would agree, that a truly natural world is a beautiful world.

There is a hope that leaders will see possibilities of transformation within this global disaster, in as much as green aims are not a lost cause and possible, if hard. As leaders are already talking about ‘bounce back’ and stimulus packages to kickstart economies to avoid a Great Depression, we should ask, ‘is there more leverage to restart with greener aims?’ Targets are already set on more reliance on green solutions across the world, so shifting that bounce back with greener focus is something that could be attractive and a ‘reset’ starting place.

Many industries will be thinned out from the lockdown, including ‘carbon-heavy’ industries such as events, airlines and fashion (fashion’s carbon footprint is bigger than the airline industry) and with that comes an opportunity to re-invent and re-point these sectors with innovations that are environmentally sensitive. Indeed, some of the fallout in terms of work culture changes from lockdown may include more home-working and less travel, as these have now been trialed over long periods and would have saved money for businesses. Shopping online will now be second nature to lot more people, who may not miss their car trips.

Covid 19 will give many of us a new mindset, new feelings and perhaps a new respect for nature and science too.

The hardest truth however, is that to reach that ambitious target of zero emissions by 2050, we need to repeat this year’s emissions drop, to around 5%, every year toward that date. When you put it in those terms, the challenge obviously remains as enormous as it was before 2020, a year that will be permanently marked as the time we all had to change everything about our daily routines.

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