TÜRKIYE AT THE CROSSROADS

by Zoltán Koskovics

TÜRKIYE'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS AND THE FIRST ROUND OF THE PRESIDEN-

TIAL CONTEST WERE HELD ON MAY 14. THE FINAL RESULTS, AFTER A SECOND ROUND OF VOTING FOR THE PRESIDENCY SCHEDULED FOR MAY 28, WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE GEOPOLITICAL BALANCE.

Elections to the Grand National Assembly were concluded on May 14. President Erdoğan's "People's Alliance" was a comfortable winner, albeit with a slightly reduced majority. The pro-Western "National Alliance" came in a distant second with more than 100 fewer seats than the ruling coalition. "Labour and Freedom," with only 66 seats, rounds out the list of alliances and parties that won seats in the 600-member parliament.

The presidential election is clearly a referendum on Erdoğan, who has become a towering figure in recent Turkish history. The opposition was resigned to this fact when it nominated the uncharismatic economist and retired bureaucrat Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. The "Democratic Uncle," as he was dubbed, clearly hoped to attract the anti-Erdoğan vote. So far, this has propelled him into the second round, but in a much weaker position than his supporters had hoped. Erdogan fell just 0.6 percent short of the 50 percent of the vote that would have allowed him to win outright. His rival trails him by 4.5 percent.

Under Erdoğan’s leadership, Türkiye has become a formidable regional power. On the other hand, the country has suffered from sky-high inflation. Relations with EU and NATO allies have soured over ideological differences, with Erdoğan unwilling to follow the West down its woke path, as well as over the war in Ukraine, after Türkiye adopted a much more cautious position.

The stakes are enormous. The opposition promises to bring Türkiye back into ideological and military alignment with the U.S. and the EU. This would mean sacrificing strategic, economic, and trade opportunities and the dream cherished by many in Türkiye of becoming a regional power broker as the world transitions to a multipolar order.

The gravest problems, however, come from internal pressures. The opposition was convinced that it would win in the first round. The well-oiled propaganda machines that recently produced a virtual revolt in Georgia and Israel over developments that did not suit the liberal globalists could kick into high gear if President Erdoğan is declared the winner. This is potentially a recipe for disaster that would reverberate throughout the region and have dire security implications.

The author is a geopolitical analyst at the Center for Fundamental Rights (Alapjogokért Központ)