SEPTEMBER 2019 Vol. 06 | Issue 9
Recession Is Coming to the US, Are We Prepared for It?
CFPB & Trump
Tony
Thompson
Founder and CEO
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CONTRIBUTORS The Power Is Now Research Team
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The Power Is Now Magazine | September 2019
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CONTENTS
the power is now
magazine
12. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in the Spotlight 18. HUD Proposes More Hurdles to Prove Housing Discrimination 22. Oakland’s Measure W Leaves Property Owners in A Limbo 26. Recession Is Coming to the US, Are We Prepared for It? 32. Tony Thompson, Founder and CEO of NAMMBA 36. The Streets of Los Angeles In Crisis: More Tents Less Houses
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FROM THE
EDITOR
D
ear Esteemed Readers,
I hope that you are having a prosperous September. Fall is right around the corner, and before long, the year will be long gone, but what an amazing year here at The Power Is Now. We are continuing to grow, and with the growth, we are diligently working towards changing homebuyers into homeowners. The National Association of Real Estate Brokers annual national conference has already passed and if you missed the event, you missed out on some premium professional development and connections. The new NAREB president took on helm with a promise to continue the good the organization stands for. According to the 2nd quarter 2019 homeownership Census report from the U.S. Census Bureau, black homeownership rates now stands at 40.6%, the lowest it has ever been in more than 50 years. That compared to the white homeownership rate, is a significant 30 percent gap. As year progresses, it is time that we actively hold the campaign to get our people into homes and I like the proposal from NAREB. First a home, or an alternate investment in real estate, then a car. The sooner we realize this, the better because for most black families, a home will always represent wealth. There is a lot on our plate, and I am very excited to share a few things with you. First of all, I would like to acknowledge that we have partnered with First Bank to make sure that you get the best you could ever ask for. It is such partnerships and business collaborations that help us serve you better. Other than that, we are continuing to increase our pool of resources to make sure that you are always up to date with current information. In our magazine this month, we feature the Founder and CEO of NAMMBA, Tony Thompson, an organization that is dedicated to the enrichment and the betterment of minorities and women
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The Power Is Now Magazine | September 2019
who work in the mortgage industry. Tony is an industry veteran who has campaigned to increase minority and women engagement in the mortgage banking industry. Get the full story on who Tony is, and what his organization is doing creating a transformation in the mortgage industry. Also, within this ezine is perhaps one of the most controversial moves by HUD. A proposed amendment to the Fair Housing Law. Apparently, the Agency proposed an algorithm that would make it even harder for people to report cases of discrimination. It is a topic that has sparked a debate and the question most people are asking is whether HUD is serious about protecting the rights of minority groups in the country. In other news making headline this month is the homelessness menace that has impacted the city of Los Angeles like a plague. Tents are all over and the problem seems to be evolving into becoming a permanent situation in the county. As L.A struggles with homelessness, Oakland city enacted a tax that would ensure that there is money to fight homelessness, blight and perhaps spur development in the county. The Measure W by Oakland City seeks to enact a tax on all “not in use” properties in the city. I think it is a good measure, but the city seems stuck in implementing the bill. It is a month full of interesting and thought-provoking stories that will keep your busy and engaged. I cannot forget to mention that according to most economists, we might be headed for a recession. The las one hit our people very bad and one of the reasons for this is lack of information beforehand. Are we prepared for yet another recession? It is a question we analyze in depth only in this issue of the TPIN magazine. I am excited to say that everything seems to be flowing on smoothly and we look forward for a very calm third quarter of 2019. Please take a moment to read and share our current issue. Like on us on Facebook and Follow us on Twitter and let us continue to support each other in all our undertakings. Through all the challenges the real estate industry faces, we need to be flexible and adaptable in order to remain relevant and competitive. If there anything we can do to help improve our service, please email your concerns to eric.frazier@thepowerisnow. com. It is with this note that I send you sunshine, warmth and summer fun for your entire family. Remember “we are at our best and we maximize our success when we act now”. The Power Is Now!
Eric Lawrence Frazier, MBA CEO The Power Is Now Inc.
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[POWER FINANCIAL]
IN THE SPOTLIGHT “What should be a bipartisan program to protect consumers has turned into typical Washington partisanship that will ultimately undermine consumer protection. Nothing is getting done. Our Congress is powerless because they refuse to work together for the American people.” Eric L. Frazier MBA
P
resident Trump’s campaign promise, to do everything in his power to protect the most vulnerable people in the society– the ‘forgotten man and woman’ as he called them, and to make America great again, is under fire? In his 2016 speech, he told the press and his supporters that “It’s not just the political system that’s rigged, it’s the whole economy,” but now that he is in office is the President doing anything to un-rig the rigged system? I agree that the system needs structural changes in many areas. But, his administration may be doing more harm than good to unrig it by systematically dismantling the institutions set up to safeguard the ‘forgotten men and women.’ Ever since his appointment to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Mick Mulvaney had made it his sole purpose to shift the balance of power between the politically influential industries that lend money to ordinary Americans. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau over the last one year has been in the spotlight first over the leadership fights about control of the financial watchdog agency and over change in policies. The battle started when the then CFPB’s director Richard Cordray resigned, following his resignation hours later, Trump appointed the White House budget director Mick Mulvaney as the CFPB’s acting director. His appointment prompted a lawsuit from Leandra English who was appointed as the bureau’s deputy director. English argued that she was CFPB’s rightful acting director and sought to temporarily to block Mulvaney from ascending to power. Elizabeth Warren, who helped create the bureau in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis had envisioned the agency as a
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The Power Is Now Magazine | September 2019
kind of economic stabilizer for the American consumers, a kind of counter to the country’s rising structural inequality. The Republicans viewed the creation of the agency as a rogue agency institutionalized with dictatorial powers so unique in the American Republic. While in congress, Mulvaney had established himself as a sworn enemy of the bureau, describing the agency as a ‘joke’ in ‘a sick, sad kind of way’ and ironically, this is the same person now leading it. Under Mulvaney’s leadership, the CFPB has moved to rein in many of the consumer protection and enforcement actions taken by his predecessor, Richard Cordray. In addition, the bureau has also dropped cases against predatory payday lenders, reportedly rolled back investigations of the Equifax data breach and also, reformulated its mission to scale back its potential reach.
Legislation Put Forward to Put Consumers First
In October 2018, Congresswoman Maxine Waters (D-CA) announced the introduction of the H.R. 6972, the Consumer First Act, a bill directly aimed to block Trump’s forces on what she calls his anti-consumer agenda and reverse their efforts. “It is clear that President Trump and his budget director are doing everything in their power to roll back consumer protections, strip the Consumer Bureau of its resources and prioritize Wall Street at the expense of consumers,” said Waters. The consumer first Act main agenda is to restore powers to the consumer bureau by
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re-introducing the agency’s supervisory and enforcement powers and increasing agency’s accountability to carry out its mandated missions. “Under prior leadership, the Consumer Bureau returned $12 billion to nearly 30 million consumers who have been harmed by financial institutions, handled over 1.3 million consumer complaints about financial institutions, and made the financial marketplace stronger and fairer for all Americans. But under Trump and Mul vaney’s direction, consumers come last. This critically important agency must get back to work fulfilling its statutory purpose and protect Americans from unfair, deceptive or abusive practices. I call on my colleagues in Congress to put consumers first by supporting this legislation to ensure the Consumer Bureau’s statutorily mandated mission no longer continues to be undermined.” Said Waters. I believe that what the Democrats are doing is important. Strengthening consumer protection rights, they feel have been weakened since Mulvaney stepped into office is a virtuous thing to do. “Putting Mick Mul vaney in charge of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau was the epitome of a fox guarding the hen house,” Representative Carolyn Maloney said in House floor speech, “so we have to undo all the damage he did while he was acting director of the CFPB.” The Consumer First Act was well received and was approved by the House Financial Services Committee in late March. The bill would require the CFPB to reverse all the anti-consumer actions made under Mulvaney’s tenure. This is a small victory for the Democrats, the Consumer First Act will have a tough time passing through the Republican-controlled senate and even if the bill will pass and be approved in the senate, Trump has promised to veto the bill. When I first read about the bill by Maxine Waters, I couldn’t believe that everything she was saying was true. I have followed the Consumer First Act from the beginning. I think the Bureau is a highly politicized entity. This will be a tough battle for the Trump administration going forward because Republicans view the bureau as an anti-business and will continually
13
seek to defame it. Democrats view the bureau as a way to empower and protect consumers from predatory lenders and unethical lending practices. In my view both make strong cases and so we need a compromise and to balance the power so that the consumer comes first. But, the war of words and accusations continue. “I don’t see this going anywhere,” said Alan Kaplinsky, a partner at the national law firm Ballard Spahr and an expert on the CFPB. “I think it’s just an opportunity for Democrats to vent about their unhappiness over Mulvaney having been acting director.” With the appointment of Kathy Kraninger, who replaced Mulvaney in December, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has been and will continue to be a ground for political contentions. And over the years, in fact, ever since its formation, the Republicans have decried the Bureau viewing its policies as overzealous regulatory overreach by Obama-appointed director, Richard Cordray. With so much hostility, do you think the bill has a chance? I really don’t think so. Kraninger indicated that the Bureau is still exploring whether to let the public consumer complaint database remain private alongside reviewing how it measures whether a company 14
has fallen out of the parameters regarded nondiscriminatory lending practices. Among many other controversial moves, the Bureau under its new leadership has also come out to say that it will review the so-called payday lending rule. Meanwhile, as the battle continues to see the bill passes both the houses, three cases have been filed in different circuit courts challenging the constitutionality of the bureau, one important reason being that its singledirector structure puts too much power in the hands of the president. There is a likelihood that one of the cases put forward might end up in the Supreme Court. If that happens, and the bureau is ruled unconstitutional, then many consumers will be on a hot seat. It is not a matter of ‘if’ but ‘when’ and when this happens. We will need new solutions on how to protect consumer. Allowing financial institution selfpolice themselves with little oversight is one of the reasons that we experience the Great Financial Crisis. This is role and responsibility of government to protect consumers. Not business. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau should a bipartisan program that congress can come together on. It’s about making America The Power Is Now Magazine | September 2019
Safe again from companies that are intent on doing wrong. No business is exempt from scrutiny and all of them when uncheck are capable of evil because the love of money is the root of all evil. I agree completely with Alan Kaplinsky that replacing the position of the solo director with a five-member commission might be a right solution. “The FCC [Federal Communications Commission] has a fivemember commission,” Kaplinsky said. “Republicans have three of the spots and Democrats have two.” “They manage to function very well,” he added. “You don’t have the extremes that we’ve seen with the CFPB — the swinging back and forth, depending on who’s in control.” In the meantime, most of the consumer advocates remain optimistic that the Consumer First Act could get some traction in the senate. Let’s hope so. The Power Is Now Inc. is committed to consumer advocacy especially related to housing and mortgage lending We will continue to bring news and events that will help you identify the opportunities to create wealth and the challenges that may rob you of your wealth and the ability to create it. We want the government to be the wind at our back to help Americans instead of a head wind in our face that may be preventing many consumers from moving forward and building wealth. We are a media company promoting homeownership as a reality for people by educating them and inspiring them with knowledge on how to do it; because they can. We have also partnered with First Bank to provide the products and programs that First Time Homebuyers need to buy a home now because tomorrow it will be even more challenging. Go to www.neverrentagain.com and get started today with your American Dream of Homeownership.
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The Power Is Now!. Eric Lawrence Frazier MBA Vice President and Mortgage Advisor of First Bank NMLS 461807 President and CEO of The Power Is Now Inc. www.thepowerisnow.com The views and opinions of Eric Frazier, the Power Is Now and it affiliates, do not necessary reflect the views of the First Banks. www.thepinmagazine.com
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First Bank Legacy For over four generations, First Bank has enjoyed a legacy of strength, agility, and long-term perspective. Since 1910, we have remained dedicated to serving the communities in which we operate with an unwavering commitment. This commitment began over 100 years ago in a small, rural community in St. Louis to help local clients reach their financial goals. And, although First Bank has grown to be one of the largest family-owned banks in the country, the steadfast commitment to serving our clients—and treating them like family—still remains the same. From Main Street America to large-scale metropolitan areas, First Bank continues to be a vital part of the communities in which we serve. At First Bank, you’ll find the products and offerings typically only found with larger, publicly held financial institutions. Quite simply, we’re big enough to provide the products and services you need, but small enough to provide caring, personal service. At First Bank, our clients become part of the family.
1910
William Dierberg, Sr.,
President, Creve Coeur Farmer’s Bank
1945
William Dierberg, Jr.,
President, Creve Coeur Farmer’s Bank
1966
James Dierberg,
President, Creve Coeur Farmer’s Bank
2016
Michael Dierberg, Chairman, First Bank
1973 Creve Coeur Bank becomes First Missouri Bank
Missouri Bank 1986 First becomes First Bank
1974
First Acquisition: Hermann, MO
1995 First Bank expands into California
1983
Expansion into Illinois
century of treating 2010 Aclients like family
[POWER LEGAL]
No Such Thing as
Housing Discrimination! HUD Proposes More Hurdles to Prove Housing Discrimination
O
ver 50 years ago, the united states enacted the fair housing rule into law. This law aimed to protect individuals and families from discrimination in sale, rental, financing or advertising of housing and housing related products. 20 years later, the Fair Housing law would see its first amendment, which would strengthen by adding more dockets to it. The amendment prohibited discrimination on the basis of race, color, religion, sex, disability, family status and 18
national origin. The FHA rule essentially was enforced to spot and root out ‘evil and malice’ that was so widespread in the housing industry. This discrimination was often egregious; the-then called Real Estate professionals steered black families away from the white neighborhoods. More often than not, landlords refused to rent black families, and openly, property managers’ racism was plainly listed on the apartment listings. The Power Is Now Magazine | September 2019
Then, the perpetrators were clear in every motive and intentions. Their intentions were relatively very simple to understand and document, in short, there was nothing to hide. Today, 50 years later, civil right activists and groups warn that discrimination in housing still exists. Though not openly as it used to be, it exists in subtler form that raise the most sophisticated questions. How do you prove that discrimination exists? Who is to be held accountable? How do you interpret the evidence of its existence when it can only be seen in algorithms or government data, than on the ‘for-rent’ sign?
An attack on Disparate Impact About two weeks ago, the Department of Housing and Urban Development published a proposed rule that would raise the bar for housing discrimination claims that rely on the most obvious evidence such as the ‘for-rent’ signs among others. Technology is a good thing. With an advancement in technology, lives are changed, and in most cases, positively. As the technology continues to play a more important role in the housing market, I am not sure whether this time, lives will be changed positively. All signs point towards a shaky and turbulent times ahead. The proposed regulation by HUD directly aims to replace the Obama-era rule on Disparate Impact, a legal theory that has guided the FHA law for more than 50 years. Disparate Impact refers to the practices adversely impacting on minority groups without discriminating against them in explicit terms. The Supreme Court has recognized the existence of this form of bias as prohibited under the FHA law. However, the proposed amendment by FHA would substantially raise the burden of proof for parties claiming discrimination. HUD is basing its amendment on a 2015 Supreme Court ruling where the court had interpreted that the policy identified must be an “artificial, arbitrary, and unnecessary barrier” to fair housing. It doesn’t stop at that. The new rule carves
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out an unprecedented guidance for automated decision-making system that power the housing market. Notably, these proposed algorithms are the same used to pass judgement by lenders and landlords on credit risks, home insurance, mortgage interest rates and more. Under this new law, lenders will not be liable for any effects of an algorithm provided by third parties. This creates a room for biasness to permeate housing market rendering FHA rule powerless. “This is a proposal to very dramatically revise and effectively destroy an existing 2013 civil rights regulation,” says Megan Haberle, deputy director for the Poverty & Race Research Action Council. “This is a core part of the Fair Housing Act, and very early fair housing cases across the country have recognized the discriminatory effects standard.”
Federal Law against outright discrimination The Federal Law is very direct on what entails discrimination, otherwise, the Disparate Impact. In other words, it is illegal for example to design a rental application that has an effect of excluding minorities, even if it wasn’t intended to discriminate against them. Raising the bar on such claims makes it harder for people to be held accountable. If, for example banks have underwriting algorithms that repeatedly deny mortgages to seemingly qualified minority group, it would be hard to hold them accountable. Or, if a city has zoning guidelines that make no mention of race still have the
19
“People don’t just say the things they used to say,” said Myron Orfield, a law professor at the University of Minnesota who directs the Institute on Metropolitan Opportunity there. “A black household that makes $167,000 is less likely to qualify for a prime loan than a white household that makes $40,000,” Mr. Orfield said, citing analysis of public mortgage data by the institute. “That looks funny. What the banks say in these cases is, ‘It’s the credit histories, and our models explain the differences.’ But you can’t look at those models. They’re proprietary.”
effect of racially segregating neighborhoods, it wouldn’t be held accountable. In June, the Housing Secretary Ben Carson said that his department was making an overhaul on the Disparate Impact Doctrine. The new rule was published on Monday triggering a 60-day comment period before being officially implemented. This move by the Trump Administration to tighten the Disparate Impact claims is just a minor cog in a larger battle that goes beyond the limits of housing. Several industry groups have constantly warned that any landlord, company or city official could be accused of discriminatory patterns emerge. “Something has gone badly awry when a city can’t even make slumlords kill rats without fear of a lawsuit,” Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. wrote in a dissenting opinion to a 2015 Supreme Court decision upholding disparate impact claims under the Fair Housing Act. The amendment by HUD responds to the Supreme Court ruling by redefining more strictly how disparate impact might be proved. If Disparate Impact becomes a lesser viable tool, it will become impossible to highlight and curb policies that reinforce segregation. Or the strict policies and decision that widen racial wealth gap. If a person must prove that someone explicitly intended to discriminate, they’ll never be able to police city officials or algorithms who keep that intent silent. 20
In a case where algorithms are alleged to cause a discriminatory effect, the defendant can rebut the claim by providing the inputs to the model and showing that “these factors do not rely in any material part on factors which are substitutes or close proxies for protected classes … and that the model is predictive of credit risk or other similar valid objective.” In its defense, HUD says that the proposal will bring, in its interpretation of the disparate impact standard in line with a 2015 supreme court ruling, where the court held that disparate impact claims can be brought under the Fair Housing Act but said “disparate impact liability must be limited so employers and other regulated entities are able to make the practical business choices and profit-related decisions that sustain a vibrant and dynamic freeenterprise system.”
Works Cited Kriston Capps. “How HUD Could Dismantle a Pillar of Civil Rights Law.” CityLab, CityLab, 19 Aug. 2019. O’DONNELL, KATY. “HUD to Propose More Hurdles to Prove Housing Discrimination.” POLITICO, 31 July 2019. Radhika Ojha. “HUD Tackles the Role of Algorithms in Fair Housing.” DSNews, 16 Aug. 2019. “Who’s to Blame When Algorithms Discriminate?” The New York Times, 20 Aug. 2019. Accessed 5 Sept. 2019. The Power Is Now Magazine | September 2019
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[POWER LEGAL]
Oakland’s Measure W
Leaves Property Owners in A Limbo
T
he state of California is in a crisis. A crisis that appears to be growing stronger and wider by the day. Homelessness is a menace that has taken the county like a wildfire. As San Francisco supervisors consider putting the Vacant Property Tax on the ballot, Oakland is struggling with the reality of implementing it. The Measure W was written by City Council President Rebecca Kaplan and was put before the voters in November. Seventy percent of Oakland voters passed the bill which came, probably as a measure of last resort and a desperate move to discourage corporate speculators and spur development, and raise money for homeless services and fight illegal dumping. A report from the UC Berkeley’s Terner Center for Housing Innovation cited that one of the primary reasons property stays vacant is land speculation. The tax applies to any privately owned property in Oakland. This includes residential, commercial, and empty lots that are not in use for over 50 days in a calendar. The annual tax is $6,000 per parcel of most properties in Oakland, regardless of size or value. For a duplex or a condo unit, or ground-floor of a commercial space, the tax is $3,000 a year. 22
The measure was put on the ballot with the proponents saying that it would raise $10 million annually. The money would be channeled for homeless services, affordable housing, programs to fight blight and illegal dumping. Some challenges facing the city are; defining “in use properties,” identifying vacant properties, clarifying exemptions, developing a channel or a software to administer the program and forming a commission on homelessness to recommend on the use of the revenue. Opponents of the measure say that the measure hurts those who do not have money yet to build on their property. Which puts them in limbo, to sell their property or to pay the annual taxes. Ever since the tax passed, Oakland real estate market has been flooded with people trying to sell vacant lots.
The backstory For many years, vacant land and blight have been a challenge for Oakland City. Back in 2012, the city council voted to create a registry for vacant and foreclosed properties. The registry was then expanded to include defaulted The Power Is Now Magazine | September 2019
properties and REO properties. In 2014, the council gave a directive to prepare a plan to create a registry of vacant lots and vacant ground-floor commercial storefronts. Given the state law limits on the ability of the city to charge a fee to cover the costs, creating such a registry was prohibitively expensive. As a result, the registry could not be created. Fast forward to 2018, Councilwoman Kaplan put forward a proposal to tax vacant properties and to use the funds to address homelessness and illegal dumping. Estimates suggest that the revenue would cover the expense of creating and maintaining the registry. In addition, it would provide the needed resources to combat homelessness and dumping. In December, the Finance Department sent a letter to owners of 25,000 non-owneroccupied properties warning of a tax should the property be declared vacant, which sent most of them in a frenzy. Measure W exempts owners “who can demonstrate that exceptional specific circumstances prevent the use or development of the property.” However, most owners cannot tell with absolute certainty if they qualify for this exemption, until the Finance Department writes rules implementing the measure and the city county adopts them.
Fighting homelessness James Vann of the Oakland Homeless Advocacy Working Group said that funding is needed to manage the growing homelessness cases. The 2017 Alameda’s County Biannual Point-in-time Homeless count reported 2,761 homeless people in Oakland, which is a 26 percent rise from the previous year. According to Vann, this number is conservative; his organization estimates a figure closer to 6,000. “If the city does not create a new source of revenue, they just will be stymied in being able to address the homeless crisis at all, which is just growing astronomically,” Vann said. Since 2015, the city has struggled with funding solutions to homelessness. But the www.thepinmagazine.com
officials agree that part of the reason the crisis is deepening is because of economic factors rather than substance abuse or mental problems. Over the past, the city has tried controversial programs such as sanctioned volunteer run camps were temporary. Oakland mayor Libby Schaaf supports the tax. Through her spokesman Justin Berton, she said in a mail “It’s a novel idea that will generate new resources to address some of Oakland’s biggest challenges, such as homelessness,” Berton said. It also “taxes people who are failing to utilize their property during a housing shortage, which damages overall community vitality.” At this moment, we can’t authoritatively say the number of vacant properties in the county. However, data from an independent researcher from UC Berkeley estimates there are about 4,000 undeveloped privately owned lots in Oakland. Most of which are in residential neighborhoods.
My take on Measure W There are very many things to like about this measure. First, similar bills have been implemented in other cities and around the world to help inactive land become active. This eliminates blight among many other problems. The tax, especially in hot markets, can help propel landowners to develop their properties. However, my only concern would be the city’s ability to effectively implement this measure. First, I don’t think we can precisely define vacant properties, and it would be difficult judging what property is in use and which one is not. In addition, the exemptions to the tax are so broadly defined. The vague language would make it difficult to implement the tax effectively.
Works Cited Pender, Kathleen. “Oakland’s Vacant-Property Tax Takes Effect, Sparking Hope - and Alarm.” SFChronicle.Com, San Francisco Chronicle, 26 Jan. 2019. Tadayon, Ali. “Oakland’s Vacant Parcel Tax Takes a Big Bite out of Property Values.” East Bay Times, East Bay Times, 3 July 2019. Trent, Sarah. “Measure W Proposes a Tax on Vacant Properties in Oakland.” Oakland North, 2018,
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Your loan officer should be as invested in your home as you are. Let’s feather your nest. First Bank Mortgage offers three tips to help you on the path to homeownership! 1. Start by checking your credit score. Your credit history is an important factor when you decide to apply for a loan. The score reflects how well you manage your debt. It’s important to discuss this, and other factors, with your First Bank home loan consultant. If you find that your credit score is too low, there are a number of steps you can take to improve your credit score. 2. Get organized. Getting a loan requires a few different documentations including, but not limited to, pay stubs, tax returns, and financial statements. You’ll also need to provide copies of additional monthly payments such as car loans, credit cards, and student loans. Keep all of this in mind, when you begin organizing. If you have this information readily available when you decide to apply for a home loan, it will make the process much more efficient. 3. Start Saving! Set up a designated savings account and start saving as much as you can each pay period to use as a down payment on the purchase of your new home. Although we offer first-time homebuyer programs with little to no down payment, it is still a good idea to have some available funds in reserve to use for a potential down payment, utilities, moving expenses, new home furnishings, or unforeseen emergencies. With some preparation now, you’ll be even closer to rolling out the welcome mat on your own, new home later. We’re here to help answer any questions to help make that dream a reality.
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[POWER MORTGAGE]
RECESSION IS COMING TO THE US,
ARE WE PREPARED FOR IT? T
he Power Is Now is an online media company that produces relevant, insightful, interesting and thoughtprovoking content for both internal and external audiences. The company’s diverse industry and economics allow us to bring to you insights and sophisticated analysis to complex industry based questions. Our publication ranges from in-depth articles to magazine publication and executive briefs aimed at keeping you and our partners abreast with topical issues. The views and opinions of The Power Is Now or Eric Frazier do not necessarily represent the First Bank. Tuesday last week saw the equity markets across the globe jump as the Trump Administration announced that it would delay some of the tariffs on China. But a day later, global stock markets sold off hard because of the ever-weakening economic data in Europe and Asia and further yield curve inversions. Of late, there has been much speculation from ma jor media houses about an impending global crash and the inevitable fallout that will result from the crash. As of August 2019, the US economy is flourishing, but fears of another global recession are rising. Reliable data show that the United States, one of the largest economies in the world, may be headed for another recession. It has been already 10 years since the last global economic slowdown, unemployment rates In the country have never been this low, the stock market, while still shaky, are close
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to record highs, consumer confidence is also high and shoppers are still shopping, in short, despite the U.S. and China trade war, the economy looks very strong. As the trade war heats up, economists in the country warn of a huge possibility a global economic slowdown. Lawrence Summers a former U.S. Treasury Secretary and a white House economic adviser told Bloomberg that the recession risk is “much higher than it needs to be and much higher than it was two months ago,” though he notes that there is still less than a 50/50 chance that the U. S will enter recession in the next 12 months.
The U.S and China Trade War On July 2019, the United States President Donald Trump followed through months of threats to impose tariffs on China for the alleged unfair trade practices. As of date, the United States government has already slapped tariffs on over $250 billion worth of Chinese products. China has also responded in kind setting tariffs on $110 billion worth of US goods and it has threatened of a qualitative measure that would affect US businesses operating in china. What does this mean for the United States economy? For certain, the President is increasingly frustrated with the fruitless negotiations with China and that would
The Power Is Now Magazine | September 2019
explain a lot about the 10 percent tariff on some additional $300 billion worth of Chinese products into the United States. I see the new tariff as an addition of the 25 percent that the president already imposed on the $250 billion worth of goods from china. This means that the United States government is taxing almost everything from China. In June, the President had agreed that he would not impose more tariffs after a successful meeting with President Xi Jinping, both agreeing to renegotiate new terms of trade between both countries. However, Trump said that he would be moving ahead with the tariff as of September 1st due to failure on Chinese government to live up to the commitments it made, including buying more of America’s agricultural products. The commerce ministry in China stated that both the countries have to come to a mutual ground to restart talks on the phone in about two weeks to avoid the U.S and China trade war from escalating further. This is expected to happen just days before President Trumps ultimatum. “China’s position is very clear that if U.S. wishes to talk, then we will talk,” Zhang Jun,
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China’s new ambassador to the United Nations, said Friday. “If they want to fight, then we will fight.” The two sides seem to drift further away from the table and they don’t seem to be alone! While the trade war between the US and China heats up, elsewhere Japan and South Korea veered towards their own trade confrontation leading to greater uncertainty in the region.
Economic Recession’s Impact on Housing The global economic standoff between these big countries is what’s sparking fears of a global economic slowdown. It is like a bubble just waiting to burst. Certainly, economic conditions around the world deeply affect the United States housing market. “Sharp and deep stock declines reduce confidence among all players in the economy. As such, potential homebuyers may become more cautious about making such a significant and long-term financial commitment,” said Tendayi Kapfidze, LendingTree’s Chief Economist. “Others may see their down payment
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funds decline if they were keeping some money in the stock market. The stock decline is accompanied by a significant decline in interest rates so this makes the monthly payments more affordable for buyers who chose to follow through.” A report from the National Association of Home Builder in June noted that the imposition of tariffs on $10 billion worth of Chinese goods contributed to the nation’s affordability issues, stating that regulations accounts for 25% of the price of a single home. “Removing regulatory barriers that contribute to the increased costs of housing will pave the way to homeownership,” said NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde, a builder and developer from Torrington, Connecticut. “Home builders and the residential construction community are committed to working with Congress to ensure homeownership is within reach of hard-working families.” If the United States and China trade war continues, and more tariffs imposed on Chinese products, especially those related to the homebuilding, the effect will be passed down to the cost of construction and renovations. Meaning, an increasing cost of housing. The
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sector that would suffer more would be the lower-priced homes as thin margins on these homes will shrink further. “This will exacerbate the inventory challenge at the lower end of the housing market, accelerating prices here beyond the added tariff expense, and worsening the affordability and availability problems in this part of the market,” Kapfidze said.
Effect of Another Recession on African American Community Recession for any country is bad, but it gets worst for the socially marginalized populations and the fact is, in the United States, I think the Black Americans would suffer the most from another global economic slowdown. I think right now we need to start getting prepared because it’s not a matter of if, but when. While the late 90s produced full employment in the country and a significant absolute and relative economic gains for the Black people, the 2001 is a recession that to date, Black Americans have never recovered from. The recession pushed the white annuals unemployment rate from a low of 3.5% in 2000 to a high of 5.2% in 2003 while the
The Power Is Now Magazine | September 2019
black shot up from 7.6% to 10.8%. A report from the ACLU states that Black people will continue to suffer the effects of the great recession for some decades to come. By 2031, their white counterparts will be 31 percent below the figure that should have been, assuming the recession never happened. For the black Americans, wealth will be 40 percent lower, which only means that black families will be about $98,000 poorer than if the recession hadn’t happened. The wealth gap between the white community and the Black has always trailed significantly, with the recession, the gap even grew wider. In 2013, the net worth of white households was 13 times greater than that of the blacks, which was the largest gap ever since the 1989. Part of the reason why our community was hit hard by the recession was the fact that we gutted home values, and homeownership was, and is still a part of our community wealth. Even as the worry of another recession happening soon grows much stronger by the day, I want to imagine what that would do to our community. Are we prepared to face another recession? The Power Is Now is an advocate for the empowerment of the minority communities all around the United States. We engage with various thought leaders to make sure that you are equipped with knowledge about our economy. We have partnered with First Bank to provide you with products and services that will help you better prepare for the future. We are also advocating for first-time home buyers. The Power Is Now can help you make your homeownership dream a reality. Go to www.neverrentagain.com and get started today.
Works Cited Adejumo, Vincent. “African-Americans’ Economic Setbacks from the Great Recession Are Ongoing – and Could Be Repeated.” The Conversation, Aug. 2019. “Bloomberg - Are You a Robot?” Bloomberg.Com, 2019. Borak, Donna. “Five of the World’s Biggest Economies Are at Risk. Here’s Where the US Stands.” CNN, 2019. Briefing, China. “The US-China Trade War: A Timeline - China Briefing News.” China Briefing News, 26 Feb. 2019. Conerly, Bill. “How Bad Is The U.S. Economy In 2019?” Forbes, 15 Aug. 2019. “How the Recession of 2020 Could Happen.” The New York Times, 17 Aug. 2019. Rushe, Dominic. “Is a Recession Coming to the US? Here’s What to Watch for.” The Guardian, The Guardian, 17 Aug. 2019. “Trump Escalates Trade War with More China Tariffs.” BBC News, 2 Aug. 2019. Ward, Alex. “Recession Fears 2019: The US and Other Countries Face Trouble.” Vox, Vox, 15 Aug. 2019. Welborn, Seth. “Home Building Drags as GDP Increases.” TheMReport.Com, 26 July 2019. ---. “World Economic Conditions and U.S. Housing.” DSNews, 7 Aug. 2019.
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Eric Lawrence Frazier MBA Vice President and Mortgage Advisor of First Bank NMLS 461807 President and CEO of The Power Is Now Inc. www.thepowerisnow.com
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104 E Ontario Ave Corona, CA 92879 FirstBanks.com/Mortgage NMLS 551928
Eric Lawrence Frazier MBA Vice President & Mortgage Advisor Office: (800) 261- 1634 ext. 103 eFax: (314) 264-0211 Cell: (714) 475-8629 NMLS: # 461807 eric.frazier@fbol.com https://www.firstbanks.com/hlc/EricFrazier/Eric-Frazier
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Eric Lawrence Frazier MBA Vice President & Mortgage Advisor Office: (800) 261-1634 ext. 703 Fax: (314) 264-0211 NMLS: # 461807 eric.frazier@fbol.com Firstbanks.com
Tony Thompson
Tony Thompson Founder and CEO of NAMMBA
J
. Tony Thompson III is the founder and the CEO of the National Association of Minority Mortgage Bankers of America (NAMMBA), which is a national trade association dedicated to the enrichment and the betterment of the minorities and women who work in the mortgage industry. Tony is an industry veteran who has set the mission for NAMMBA to increase the engagement of the minority and women in the mortgage banking industry at the local, state and national level. With that, the association seeks to partner and leverage the mortgage Bankers Association to provide education, career development and resources which align and support strategic direction for the mortgage industry. NAMMBA’s members work in all segments of the mortgage and housing industry and serve in sales, operations and servicing capacities within their respective organization. NAMMBA members are from diverse backgrounds as membership is not limited to minorities and women.
Education Mr. Thompson is a graduate from the South Carolina State University where he earned his undergraduate degree and went on to do his masters of business administration from the Webster University. He also holds a master of science from the Pfeiffer University.
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Career Apart from being the president of NAMMBA, tony is also the vice president of Silverton Mortgage Specialists, Inc. where he oversees the company wide business development efforts both within its existing markets across the 13 states and Washington D.C. He is also charged with leading Silverton Mortgage’s expansion into the new markets across the country. “Tony has a proven track-record of leadership and strategic expansion within the mortgage industry,” said Josh Moffitt, president and founder of Silverton Mortgage Specialists, Inc. “He shares our commitment to growing smart by adding the best mortgage professionals in the country in order to better serve our clients, as well as the communities in which we do business.” Prior to joining Silverton Mortgage, Thompson held leadership position at large national banks and mortgage lenders, where he oversaw development and execution of growth strategies. The most recent one being the senior vice president at Guaranteed Rate Mortgage, where he presided over the expansion efforts throughout the southeast. He also served at the PNC Mortgage, first as a Market Origination Manager where he was recruited to “relaunch” Central Florida market after National City Bank/PNC Bank merger. Tony was responsible for the largest geographical
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market in Florida and to accomplish his mission, he partnered with Retail Bank, Wealth Management and Corporate Banking leaders to grow mortgage and deposit market share. As a result, his market was recognized as one of the top 3 in the company for acquiring new Wealth Management Clients ($1M+ net worth) in 2011. Secondly, he served as a Regional Manager where he was responsible for the development and execution of PNC Mortgage growth strategy in the Georgia, Alabama and North Florida region. He led the company in Loan Originator growth by hiring over 30 FTE in year one. He executed purchase money strategy which resulted in region moving from last quartile to first quartile within 12 months. As a result, he achieved 105% increase in YOY retail bank cross sells resulting in share of wallet growth. 34
Mentorship As an industry leader Mr. Thompson is seeking to expand the scope of the industry’s professionals, where NAMMBA is seeking to diversify the executive levels of the mortgage companies. In a statement, Tony said the following, “We are trying to focus on helping women and minorities get into leadership roles,” through the NAMMBA Leadership Academy, his organization is seeking to provide both online and inperson seminars to train tomorrows industry chieftains. “We will provide a macro overview of the mortgage industry and also focus on the micro level expectations in professional development.” His ma jor focus has been on the high school and college students, where he mentors them about careers in the industry and providing them with financial literacy education. The Power Is Now Magazine | September 2019
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The Streets of Los Angeles In Crisis:
More Tents Less Houses R
ecently, we have seen a spur in heretical measures curtailed to driving away homeless people from the streets, making their way into the headlines, as communities grapple with the escalating crises of people facing housing shortages, drug addiction and mental health issues. The United States GDP is an outstanding $18 trillion, if the state of California was to dissociate from the United States, it would be the eighth largest economy in the world, surpassing Italy. If you think about how much wealth America has, it would make it absurd that the country has a homelessness crisis.
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How Bad Is Homelessness in The Country? First, to paint out a clear picture of how bad it is, we need to first understand what homelessness means. A person could be said to be homeless when they lack permanent housing. Like Wikipedia puts it, “Homelessness is the condition of people lacking a fixed, regular, and adequate nighttime residence.� According to the Annual Homelessness Assessment Report by U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), as of 2018 there were around 553,000 homeless people in the United
The Power Is Now Magazine | September 2019
from the National Alliance to End Homelessness notes. In California, in a single night in 2016, about 21.48 percent of the total population were homeless, in New York, about 15.7 percent of the population experienced homelessness.
States on a given night. This means that 0.17 percent of the total population in the United States are homeless. These are the people on the street, if we factor in people who “double up” with friends and family because they cannot afford a place of their own, you’d be surprised. Looking at these figures, I thought to myself, “These statistics must be wrong.” Homelessness, might have escalated in the wake of the Great Recession of 20082009, but it’s not a decade old problem. The issue started to gain roots back in the 1870s and ever since, it has continued to pervade the society to this present day. On just one single night, January 2015, there were about 564,708 people who were considered homeless in America, a report www.thepinmagazine.com
Homelessness crisis seems to be spreading its roots far and wide. Even though it is a crisis that pervades every fabric of societies all around the world, this crisis seems to be a rare and an exceptional case and struggle for the United States. Among the top cities in the United States to have many homeless people, New York city ranks second with Los Angeles following closely at third position. I think there is so much work that needs to be done, the national rate of homelessness has gone down slightly from 21.5 per 10,000 people in 2007 to 17.7 per 10,000 people in 2015. The homelessness crisis among individual states continues to soar higher while the amount of affordable housing remains low.
Los Angeles In Crisis There has been long standing battle with homeless in the California state and Los Angeles seems to be losing by every mean. California released it annual homelessness count that revealed that after a significant 4 percent drop from the years 2017 to 2018, Los Angeles’s homeless counts grew by 16 percent in 2019 which brings the post-2011
growth up to 52 percent. These statistics would be alarming for any state but for the city of Los Angeles, they are worrying given the fact that the city serves as an epicenter of a particularly brutal style of homelessness. Of the people who are homeless, about 75 percent are unsheltered which means a higher risk of typhus and typhoid among other diseases creating a public health emergency. The more people pouring into the streets of Los Angeles are either the perpetrators of crime or victims of crime themselves. What we are seeing is a rise of a semi-permanent structures that are threatening to take an entire city block. These makeshift structures for the city’s homeless people are now becoming a recognizable part of the city’s landscape with barbeque grills and clusters of bikes alongside them. The mayor’s response to this problem has been to increase public spending on homelessness, but so far, he has done so little. I remember a few years back when the issue first hit the headlines, the mayor jumped into action with an ambitious plan to build emergency shelters for the homeless people in all the 15 districts. But as the mayor would soon realize it, building ‘emergency’ centers would not be easy. The plan has faced a vigorous resistance not just from the neighborhoods where the residents fear more crime and blight, but also from some within the homeless community who hold that it would be better living
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independently, and on the tents. In June, Los Angeles released the results of their findings from their last and most recent count which showed that homelessness in the county was up 12 percent and 16 percent in the city. Yet, I fail to understand why communities around that state have been channeling more money into services for the homeless, like the L. A’s Measure H Sales tax, which adds $355 million each year into the arsenal. According to the advocates for the homeless, “Our housing crisis is our homeless crisis,” Elise Buik, president and chief executive of the United Way of Greater Los Angeles, told the New York Times. “And we’ve got to get people to understand that.”
Dealing with Homelessness Crisis One of the misconceptions that has risen over the recent past in the fight against homelessness is the fact that people struggling with mental illness, substance abuse and homeless people are refusing help and prefer to live on the streets. Much emphasis has been on the Measure H money which, according to Peter
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Lynn, the executive director of L.A Homeless Services Authority (L.A.H.S.A), has significantly increased the number of people the region’s service providers has been able to help. The authority says that outreach workers have been able to engage with 34,110 people over the year which is triple the number before the introduction of the Measure H. “I do feel like the first honest year to assess will be to freeze frame from now to next year,” Mayor Eric Garcetti of Los Angeles told me late last week. Ultimately, housing affordability has been the main issue and the main driver of homelessness in the county. According to the L.A.H.S.A figures, a median Angeleno would have to earn $47.52 an hour just to afford the median monthly rent. What the state needs is a bill that would effectively enforce more construction. For a fact, one such bill that would have brought a revolution to the homelessness crisis is the Senate Bill 50, which was effectively crashed for the year. The Bill would have allowed a denser development in many areas including some neighborhoods of the single-family houses. The Power Is Now Magazine | September 2019
Elsewhere, the Vacant Property Tax was on the ballot for Oakland Voters in the Alameda County of California on November 2018. The bill was approved. This bill will establish an annual tax on vacant land and buildings. Vacant lots would be taxed at a minimum rate of $6000 per parcel and unoccupied condos would be taxed at a minimum rate of $3000 per parcel. The parcels that allow a ground-floor commercial activity and have a vacant ground floor would also be taxed at $3000 per parcel.
Richmond and there have been reports that San Francisco officials have considered a much similar measure for the 2019. Here is how the measure would work to resolve housing crisis; first they are meant to dis-incentivize speculative property investing and encourage housing development and secondly should the homeowners choose not to develop or use their vacant property, the new tax they’d owe would provide funding for affordable housing and homeless solutions.
What the bill does is that it allows the Oakland City Council to set the tax rates at amounts lower than the maximum rate without having to go back to the voters. The measure comes as a response to the difficulties with finding the money to manage the homelessness crisis and to also encourage development of more than 5,000 vacant properties across the city. However, the bill was under a lot of fire from property managers, brokers and developers who had lined up nearly $700,000 to counter the motion, saying that the property taxes in the state are already high and that the property owners should not be punished for using their property as they wish.
The fact of the matter is, funding is required to manage the growing homelessness crisis. According to the Alameda County’s biannual “point-in-time” homeless count, it identified 2,761 homeless people in Oakland and a 26 percent increase from the previous survey in 2015. “If the city does not create a new source of revenue, they just will be stymied in being able to address the homeless crisis at all, which is just growing astronomically,” James Vann, a member of Oakland’s Homeless Advocacy Working Group, said.
A 2018 report from the U.C. Berkeley’s Terner Center for Housing Innovation found that in Oakland alone, there are about 4,000 privately owned vacant lots most of which are sized for the single-family homes or duplexes and are sitting on residential areas. The city also estimates another 1,000 vacant homes and other structures which are potentially eligible for the tax. “Part of what’s so powerful about Measure W,” Rebecca Kaplan said, is that it would be a demonstration that “we can actually sol ve multiple problems at once. And we need to.” Identical measures have already been implemented in ma jor cities like Vancouver, Melbourne and Washington D.C., and Kaplan is optimistic that more vacant structures would be identified if the tax measures pass. Pointing to Vancouver, Kaplan said that officials learnt that 5 percent of the city’s fully built residence were sitting empty. The measure is being implemented on more states for example
Like many in many cities, Alameda has struggled with homelessness crisis funding since 2015 which is particularly reinforced by economic conditions rather than supposedly mental illness or substance abuse and also like many states, the city has tried some conventional means such as the sanctioned Volunteer-run camps that have been opened, closed and moved. Therefore, this is a good legislation that would suffice to lower homelessness crisis. If a similar measure was implemented in the state of Los Angeles, the homelessness crisis would be averted and probably even resolved. Also, I think it is a good measure since it tries as much to avoid the confrontation with the NIMBY resistant group. As a proactive measure, L.A City imposed a new sales tax which targets to deal with the homelessness. The tax boosted the budget for dealing with homelessness to more than $600 million, while a bond issuance injected $1.2 billion towards the construction of an estimated 10,000 housing units over the next 10 years. These structures would be reserved for the people transitioning off the streets or an in danger of ending up on the streets. The county
has taken about 16 percent if the funds and packaged it as a voucher of offer a share to the homeless people, allowing them to buy into the rental marketplace with the understanding that their subsidy would eventually fade off over the course of the year, shifting the burden to new renters. Desperate times calls for desperate measures. While the county is right to want a program that would see homeless people becoming more self-sufficient, the steep monthly increases as the vouchers fades off will outpace the low wage, part-time work recipients are able to salvage. Most people don’t see it as a turnaround point, to start off a better and stable life, rather, they see it as a one-year reprieve.
Homelessness Might Be the New Normal Before the city’s new homelessness count was released, the mayor for the Los Angeles county had been touting of the fact that he’d about 20,000 people from the streets of Los Angeles. However, what he failed to understand is that while his administration was moving about 380 people off the streets each week, some 480 others were actively joining the streets. Unless someone does something about the homelessness crisis in the county, this might be our new reality. While building new structures seem like the only way to deal with homelessness, it might be too much to ask. Like I had mentioned earlier, there is this notion that most people homeless people are facing some form of illness. The slice of the homeless Angelenos dealing with a mental problem is believed to be 25 percent which is a substantial figure. It is also worthwhile noting that Los Angeles 40
attract quite a huge number of homeless young adults from elsewhere in the United States and also from abroad. These populations present a complicated situation for the city officials. However, the fact that these groups of people are the minority in the large homeless population, that alone should give us hope that the ma jority of the city’s homeless population could be reached through a more conventional public policy means such as reforms to increase housing supply. Honestly, 10 years down the line, if the state of Los Angeles and the California county as a whole would push the median rents downwards as a result of a denser building, Skid Row and others might still be existing, but only to house people who are facing serious battles with mental health and addiction. But, at this point, the city would have a more comfortable breathing position and a room to focus more on helping the hardest cases. Getting to such a point is the hard part.
References Bachega, H. (2018, October 7). Homeless in US: A deepening crisis on the streets of America. Gallagher, T. (2019). Homelessness Is a National Crisis. Golgowski, N. (2019, August 2). America’s Homeless Crisis Is Inspiring New Acts Of Cruelty. Homeless Populations Are Surging in Los Angeles. Here’s Why. (2019, June 5). Moorhead, J. (2019). LA’s homeless crisis: too many tents, too few beds. Retrieved August 20, 2019. Neiditch, D. (2017, April 18). How Bad is Homelessness In America? Retrieved August 20, 2019. OAK Measure W - Vacant Property Tax. (2018, October 29). Retrieved August 20, 2019. Reihan Salam. (2019, June 19). How to Solve Los Angeles’s Homelessness Crisis. Smith, D. (2019, June 6). Garcetti faces heat over L.A.’s homeless crisis but remains optimistic. Is he being realistic? Trent, S. (2018). Measure W proposes a tax on vacant properties in Oakland.
The Power Is Now Magazine | September 2019
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HOME OWNERSHIP By Eric Lawrence Frazier MBA
Home ownership brings stability to individuals and families who have never had a dwelling place that they could call their own. There is something special about owning real estate that is unlike anything else on earth you can own. Real Estate you own is not like cars that decay over time and you have to replace them. Real Estate you own is not like clothes that go out of style and you have to buy new ones. Real Estate you own is not like expensive vacations or experiences that only last a moment in time. Real Estate you own is not like an apartment where the landlord may increase the rent until it’s no longer affordable. Real Estate you own is not like staying at your parents house where you know can’t stay forever. Home ownership is the beginning of wealth that increases over time and becomes your estate & legacy Home ownership is the pride of a mother nurturer and the kitchen her domain Home ownership is the pride of a father provider and protector of his territory and family. Home ownership is the foundation of permanence and the place where life happens, birthdays celebrated, deaths mourned. Home ownership is the place you build memories that can never be taken from you. Memories etched in walls and concrete, experienced in rooms and floors, Memories living in trees and shrubs planted by your hand. Howe ownership is the manifestation of you - your style, your colors, your smell, your stuff, your junk, your memories, your yard and your spaces, your life. It’s the height markers on your first child’s bedroom wall. It’s the hearts drawn in the concrete slabs when you pour your patio floor It’s the birthday parties, and anniversaries in the living room and kitchen. It’s the back yard barbecue with friends, neighbors and family contentions it’s the high school and college graduation, and wedding receptions Its’ the family nights and block parties and the fellowship of family connections Home ownership It’s more than real estate. Land, brick and mortar, wood frame construction and chicken wire. It’s more than money saved, gifts recieved and grants obtained It’s more than the debt you incur to buy it. It’s more than the payments you make to own it. It’s more than the appreciation that comes with keeping it over time. It’s memories, it’s family, and it’s life that can happen in one place Until you say it’s time to move.