PROTEIN MARKET UPDATE AUGUST 2026
Red Meat Beef Market Update EU carcass prices have been mixed over the last month, there are further signs of stabilisation in key producing markets like France (-2% MoM), however increases across some origins from lows of May/June, e.g. Ireland (+6% MoM). Overall, this is a demonstration of local market pressures taking effect at country levels rather than regional movements and is not being driven by any global export markets. The market outlook is that from 3rd of September there will be no beef exports for Europe from Brazil. This means any meat produced / certified 3rd September onwards cannot be shipped. This is an impact of ~125k tons per year and will put pressure on volumes going into winter. Whilst traders and customers of Brazilian meat will be holding Brazilian stocks to hedge the transition, by Christmas, most of this stock will be utilised we therefore expect price pressure on cattle during this period. Unlike chicken, there is not a publicised timeframe for reviews on beef between Brazil & the EU commission, the expectation is that it could be one full cattle cycle until Brazil is reapproved – this will be ~1.5-2 years. The UK has not followed the EU commission’s stance on Brazilian beef, although the expectation is they will replicate in next 6 months. For the time being, this does present short term opportunity as EU volumes that fall
into quota allocations (~25k per year) will be directed to the UK. Outside of Europe, this ban presents opportunities: domestically in Brazil and globally in USA and APMEA, however the deflationary opportunity will not be significant given this volume is representative of only ~3.5% of Brazil’s beef exports and globally cattle numbers remain extremely tight. USA: In an effort to meet demand and put pressure on prices, from the end of August, the USA will recommence live cattle exports from Mexico-USA, with a plan to contain disease risk via animal inspection and joint pest control measures. Historically 1mn head of cattle crossed the border annually. The USA continues to contain New World Screworm cases, officially confirmed cases have increased to 42 (total) over July, the issue remains contained to Texas and has not expanded to other states. Brazilian cattle pricing decreased -3.52% MoM as global quota fulfilments and the pending EU export ban limits export potential. The cattle price remains +8% above January prices, indicating further room to reduce to align with end of 2025 values, prices are expected to reduce further as H2 orders for EU customers are shipped ahead of proposed 3rd Sept ban.
Beef Category Recommendations (EU&UK): •
Review supply chain to understand direct & indirect Brazil origin supply for Fresh, frozen, cooked, ready meals, charcuterie etc – this is now critical understanding
Pork
EU Pig pricing remains depressed, piglet prices have slowed in their decline but are still in a negative position MoM, this is a significant indicator that herd contraction will be large and could mean a sharp upward trend is coming in 1 to 2 cycles time – each gestation cycle is 3 months 3 weeks, therefore we are ~6 months away from market impact. Currently the average quoted loss is €50/per finished pig, we know the current market situation will reverse in the medium term. China pricing has rallied from the end of June to July +14%, we saw a similar spike in May before pricing retracted within the month. The expectation depressed prices will remain in China for the remaining calendar year, however the ambitions of the Chinese Government to lower the national pig herd (-3%) in order to raise prices domestically is well documented. USA Pricing continued to rise in line with seasonal expectations however carcass value remains lower vs. same period 12 months ago despite the perception of protein switching being greater in the USA vs. Europe. Pork consumption per capita in the USA is reported as being at lowest level in 10 years, which is surprising with the ~40% value gap between ground pork vs. beef.
Pork Category Recommendations: •
Challenge supply base on fresh as much as frozen. Long term fixed fresh pricing (12 months) has been achieved in our buying network
Poultry Poultry Over the past four weeks, the global poultry market has remained broadly balanced, with supply generally keeping pace with demand across most regions. While there have been no major supply disruptions, regional market dynamics continue to be influenced by seasonal consumption patterns, export demand, feed cost movements, and evolving trade regulations. Market participants remain focused on potential regulatory changes in Europe and their implications for global trade flows, particularly involving Brazilian exports. In the EU, poultry prices have remained firm throughout July, supported by strong seasonal demand during the summer period and a continued reduction in avian influenza-related supply constraints compared with
earlier in the year. Production levels have improved, but demand from both retail and foodservice channels has kept the market relatively tight. Looking ahead, the most significant development is the implementation of the EU’s new antimicrobial compliance requirements from 3 September. Unless Brazilian exporters receive the necessary approvals in time, imports of poultry and other animal-origin products from Brazil could face temporary restrictions. As Brazil is one of the EU’s largest poultry suppliers, any interruption could tighten supply, increase competition for available product, and place upward pressure on prices until alternative supply channels are established.
The US poultry market has remained relatively stable, with balanced production and steady domestic demand. Price movements across most cuts have been modest, reflecting adequate supply availability and efficient processing capacity. Feed costs have remained manageable, helping producers maintain competitive production economics. Export demand continues to provide support, although domestic availability remains sufficient to prevent significant price escalation. Overall, market fundamentals do not currently suggest any immediate upward pricing risk. The Brazilian poultry market has remained stable to slightly firmer, underpinned by strong export demand, competitive feed costs, and efficient production. Brazil continues to benefit from its position as one of the world’s most competitive poultry exporters, supporting steady processing volumes. However, the potential EU import restrictions from September could significantly alter market dynamics. If shipments destined for Europe are delayed or restricted, additional product may remain within Brazil or be redirected to other export markets. This could increase domestic availability, reduce export premiums,
and moderate price increases in the short term. Despite this uncertainty, global demand from the Middle East and Asia continues to provide a solid export base, limiting the likelihood of any prolonged market weakness. Demand across the APAC region has remained healthy, supported by steady economic activity, population growth, and continued recovery in foodservice consumption. Although regional production remains adequate, sustained import demand has helped keep market conditions firm across several countries. Feed costs have remained relatively stable, but exchange rate movements and freight costs continue to influence import pricing for many buyers. Should demand continue strengthening during the second half of the year, import-dependent markets may experience increased competition for available supply. The global poultry market remains fundamentally well supplied, with no immediate indication of widespread shortages or significant supply imbalances. Production continues to support current consumption levels, while feed costs have remained relatively supportive for producers.
Poultry Category Recommendations: •
EU: Monitor regulatory developments closely, assess exposure to Brazilian imports, and consider securing Q4 volumes if approval delays become likely.
Fish & Seafood Fish Whitefish markets remain structurally tight, with July confirming a continuation—and partial escalation— of the supply constraints already observed in June. Limited quotas, low biomass, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continue to restrict availability, keeping prices elevated despite weaker consumer demand across Europe. Alaska pollock remains the key swing factor in the category. Pricing has risen sharply throughout 2026 and remains under pressure, supported by constrained supply, strong global demand, and reduced EU-approved Russian volumes. Into July, uncertainty around EU sanctions on Russian seafood has intensified rather than resolved, with the market shifting from expectations of a full ban toward a quota-based approach. This evolving framework is disrupting trade flows—particularly between Russia, China, and Europe—reducing visibility on forward supply and reinforcing upward price pressure. At the same time, Chinese demand and shifting export dynamics continue to tighten availability in Western markets, while buyers increasingly prioritize securing volume over optimizing price. As a result, inflationary pressure is expected to persist into H2 2026, with market volatility driven by policy decisions and supply chain adjustments rather than demand recovery. The salmon market remains structurally supply-constrained, reinforcing its role as a premium and relatively inelastic category. The tight supply conditions highlighted in June persist into July, driven by biological limitations, regional production constraints, and weaker wild harvests. However,
regional divergence has become more apparent. Chile continues to face constrained production alongside stable demand, particularly in key export markets, maintaining price support. In contrast, Norway is experiencing softer pricing due to higher harvest volumes and an increased share of smaller fish, providing buyers with more negotiating leverage. At a global level, supply remains limited and unevenly distributed, and while some markets show short-term demand softness, structural constraints are expected to keep prices elevated and volatile. Shrimp markets continue to show a bifurcated dynamic. Farmed shrimp remains in structural oversupply, with historically low prices driven by strong production— particularly in Ecuador—and ongoing demand weakness in key markets such as the US. This creates clear opportunities for cost mitigation in value segments. In contrast, coldwater shrimp is tightening further, supported by constrained inventories and strong demand, particularly from China, which is diverting supply away from Europe and increasing price pressure. This divergence reinforces shrimp’s role as both a risk and an opportunity depending on segment and specification. Tuna is entering a more defined tightening phase, consistent with June signals. Reduced catches in early 2026 and increasing supply variability linked to environmental factors—including the emerging El Niño event—are beginning to constrain raw material availability. While the market is not yet in a fully
supply-constrained state, the directional trend points toward tighter availability and potential upward price pressure in the coming months, particularly if environmental disruptions intensify. Squid markets maintain a clear split dynamic. Peruvian jumbo flying squid remains oversupplied, with high catch volumes driving continued price pressure and creating attractive short-term sourcing opportunities. Conversely, Argentine illex squid is structurally tight following weaker fishing seasons and limited post-season availability, keeping prices firm—especially for larger sizes. This divergence highlights opportunities to optimize sourcing based on specification and end-use. Freshwater species such as pangasius and tilapia continue to play a critical role as affordability levers in a structurally inflationary seafood environment. Tilapia
markets remain stable to slightly bearish, supported by consistent production and increasing Chinese exports at competitive pricing levels. Meanwhile, pangasius continues to benefit from substitution dynamics, particularly in foodservice and value segments, where buyers are actively seeking alternatives to higher-cost whitefish. Looking ahead, the emerging risk is the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Any sustained increase in oil prices would have far-reaching consequences across seafood supply chains, increasing fishing vessel operating costs, processing expenses, freight rates and aquaculture feed costs. As feed production remains heavily dependent on agricultural commodities, higher energy prices could also lift grain and oilseed costs, creating a secondary inflationary impact on farmed species.
Fish Category Recommendations: •
EUROPE: Continue reducing exposure to Russian-linked supply; accelerate substitution into sustainable freshwater species (Tilapia/Panga).
Market Prices MARKET PRICE TRACKER - July 2026 Protein
Last price
MoM
QoQ
YoY
EU Pork - Deadweight/Carcass
€ 1.53
-4.44%
-8.22%
-26.67%
EU Beef - Deadweight/Carcass
€ 6.39
-1.63%
-9.43%
€ 6.38
2.39%
-4.42%
EU Chicken - Breast EU Chicken – Broiler
€ 3.06
1.51%
1.30%
0.51%
Atlantic Cod H&G NO
$10.60
-4.50%
2.65%
4.04%
Saithe H&G NO
$ 3.70
-4.64%
-3.64%
25.74%
Alaska Pollock H&G RU
$ 2.39
-1.65%
-9.27%
14.59%
$ 4.65
50.95%
Alaska Pollock DF Blocks CN
2.20%
3.70%
€ 5.74
57.63%
Salmon 3-6kg FPI NO
-5.75%
16.25%
14.34%
Cage Eggs (€/kg)
€ 2.45
-7.13%
-20.06% -13.46%
-4.34%
Barn Eggs (€/kg)
€ 2.66
-9.03%
-10.77%
-1.52%
Free Range Eggs (€/kg)
€ 3.26
-4.13%
-4.69%
5.15%
Free Range Eggs (€/kg)
€ 4.60
-0.65%
6.61%
17.40%
* Last price updated July 2026. Source – Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development - European Commission / Undercurrent News / FishPool
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