POPULATION BY SEX PYRAMIDS

Population pyramids with ten-year intervals for the analysis years 2010 and 2018 are provided in the charts below. Each pyramid depicts the population by sex and age. The pyramids are both contractive pyramids which represent that those within Millcreek have experienced low birth rates, low death rates, a longer life expectancy, and a high dependency ratio. The population pyramids are very similar between the two analysis time periods which indicate little change has occurred within the age and sex distribution of Millcreek’s population during the study period. This means that while the population continues to age, a steady and sufficient number of people will continue to fill age brackets associated with the working class (16 -60 years old according to the U.S. Census Bureau) which will support dependent populations (0-14 years old and 65 and older according to the U.S. Census Bureau). This can be confirmed with the consistency of the calculated dependency ratio which will be discussed in the economic portion of this report.

Race And Ethnicity

The majority of Millcreek's total population is white and accounts for just over 80% of residents' ethnic makeup. Millcreek race and ethnicity percentages are shown in Figure 2.4 below. A rise in Hispanic and/or Latino population increased by almost 3% throughout the analysis period, whereas most other races remained constant.

Dissimilarity Index (DI) is a calculation which determines how segregated racial and ethnic groups are within a city. It is calculated on a 1 to 100 scale, the closer to 1 means the less segregated a city’s population is within the city boundaries. Millcreek's dissimilarity index was 0.223 or 22% in 2010 and 0.247 or 25% in 2018. When compared to the larger Salt Lake County Region, in 2010 Salt Lake County’s DI measured at .33 or 33%. Concluding that Millcreek is less segregated than the Salt Lake County Region. This is confirmed in the Millcreek Together General Plan which states, “Millcreek is a City with a rich diveristy of demographics, neighborhoods, and cultures. Millcreek resident’s include multigenerational families from early pioneer settlers to new arrivals from Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.”

While the great diversity of Millcreek is apparent, it is also very clear that the majority of residents are white. Maps 2.1-2.3 below are just three examples of where two racail groups, White alone and Black or African American alone predominately reside within the city. Higher concentration of each racial or ethnic populations is represented in darker shaded areas of the map. As we can see in Map 2.1 White alone populations are heavily concentrated on the east bench of Millcreek as well as scattered throughtout the city. Map 2.2 represents the absence of Black or African American populations on the east bench of Millcreek and are more concentrated in the middle of the city. Map 2.3 represetns Hispanic or Latino population which is most heavily concentrated in south western portions of the city.

These maps indicate that the majority of those residing on the east bench of Millcreek were predominately white alone populations whereas other races including Black, Native Hawaiian, American Indian, and two or more races were more concentrated on the west areas of the city. While it makes sense that due to the high percentage of white residents, that there inevitably would also be higher concentrations, however careful attention should be made to ensure that all racial and ethinic groups are given equal opporunities to Millcreek’s residents.

Households

The total number of households within Millcreek was 26,007 in 2010 and 25,443 in 2018 which shows a decline in 564 occupied houses in the later year. Additionally, the average household size also experienced a minor decrease by .03 in 2018 at 2.48 when compared to 2010 at 2.51. Considering that the population declined by 444 people in 2018 when compared to 2010, its reasonable that the number of occupied households and the average household size also decreased. This could be caused by the limitation of Millcreek’s geographic boundaries and the inability to expand due to land conservation easements to the east and neighboring cities to the north, south, and west.

Median Household Income (MHI) data reported the MHI in 2010 as $57,385 and in 2018 as $66,572. When adding this piece of information to the analysis of Millcreek’s housing situation an increase of nearly $10,000 in the MHI potentially indicates the rise of house prices within Millcreek city, thus causing the decline in the population of occupied households as more residents could no longer afford to live within the city boundaries and therefore had to relocate.

Population Projection (1990-2050)

Total Population Projection

Total population projections were calculated using trend analysis method. This method was chosen due to the unique population pattern experienced in Millcreek during the last decade. The trend analysis uses data from 1990, 2000, and 2010 Decennial Census. Linear trend analysis was conducted to estimate the population projected for the target year 2050 with 1990 as the base year and 2010 as the launch year. This data is included in Figure 2.5 to the right.

For the trend analysis, a growth limit is required for the Gompertz curve. This was calculated with data gathered from the US Census Bureau. Population by group quarters, average household size, and total housing unit counts were gathered in order to calculate Millcreek’s growth limit. Generous approximation was given, and the growth limit calculated was 76,300.

Goodness of fit statistic results

are shown in Table 2.2 below. According to the goodness of fit statistics the parabolic and geometric had the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 18.1%. Yet, since all of the projection types exceeded the calculated growth limit beside the Gompertz curve which is calculated so as to never exceed the growth limit, a trimmed average projection was conducted. The trimmed projected excluded the highest and lowest trend lines (Geometric and Gompertz) in order to eliminate extreme outliers and determine the most accurate population projection.

Table 2.2 Goodness of Fit Statistics: Millcreek Population Estimates for 1990-2010 Fit Period

linear

Note: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; MPE, mean percentage error; MAPE, mean absolute percentage error

The trimmed average projection for Millcreek shown in Table 2.3 produces a population of 118,172 in the year 2050 (increase of 52% from 2010). Importantly, as previously stated, all trend curves appear to exceed the growth limit of 76, 300 for the city, excluding Gompertz which already accounts for it within its calculation.

This suggests that Millcreek is expected to experience a population growth that is likely to exceed its growth limit. In order to accommodate such significant growth in the future, the city of Millcreek may want to reconsider their density regulations or the acquisition of more land to meet the future demands of its residents.

Population By Sex Projection

Linear Trend Analysis was conducted for the population by sex projection show in Figure 2.6. The linear method was chosen after conducting a Hamilton-Perry method population projection and the results were very unrealistic and exaggerated with the total population projected to exceed 500,000 by the year 2050. While the linear method also exceeds the calculated growth limit (76,300), the results from the trend analysis provide evidence that Millcreek will outgrow the estimated growth limit. Therefore, this method is still a reasonable projection to be analyzed for

Millcreek. The projected total female population in 2050 was 59,599 and the projected total male population in 2050 was 56,756. The projected total population count is 103,355. Male and female populations are very close as females approximately 3,000 greater than males.

Population Projection: Linear Method

Implications

Due to Millcreek's population projections and the limited growing capacity, the city should find innovative and creative solutions to prepare and accommodate for an increasing population with only 500 acres of vacant land (Millcreek Together General Plan).

Adjustments to the density regulations, city code, and General Plan should be considered as one strategy to meet the anticipated demands of an increasing population. An increase in high-density housing would be an excellent benefit for the city. Furthermore, another factor to consider is the rise of MHI. In order to meet the housing demands of the growing population, providing affordable housing options will be crucial in order to allow more residents to stay in the city without being priced out of their budget.

Furthermore, while Millcreek does have a relatively impressive dissimilarity index, the city still lacks racial and ethnic diversity when compared to the surrounding areas of South Salt Lake and Salt Lake City. According to Millcreek Together General Plan, “Millcreek’s diversity of neighborhoods, businesses, and residents as an important attribute that makes Millcreek a desirable place to work and live”. With the vision to celebrate cultural diversity, efforts should be focused to promote opportunities for people of underrepresented racial and ethnic backgrounds to have a place within Millcreek.