VIII. SOCIO-CULTURAL MEASURES ASSUMED IN THE SUFFICIENCY SENSITIVITY

This appendix details all assumptions taken in the sufficiency sensitivity per sector and per measure with their source. All the measures with their impact are listed in Table VIII-1:

TABLE VIII-1 — LIST OF SOCIO-CULTURAL MEASURES ASSUMED FOR THE SUFFICIENCY SENSITIVITY

Tertiary by 2050. / -0,5 CLEVER study [CLE-1], note on industry - take average reduction estimated for 2050 & divide by two to have value for 2035

Impact of circularity on chemicalammonia Between -20 to -32% by 2050. / 0,0 CLEVER study [CLE-1], note on industry - take average reduction estimated for 2050 & divide by two to have value for 2035

Impact of circularity on steel Between -8 to -25% by 2050. / -0,6 CLEVER study [CLE-1], note on industry - take average reduction estimated for 2050 & divide by two to have value for 2035

Lower hot water needs (in quantity and temperature)

Lower heating setpoint by 2°C

Lower hot water needs (in quantity and temperature)

The same relative reduction than in residential sector is applied.

The same relative reduction than in residential sector is applied.

Elia's assumption is a consumption of 1800 kWh/y per dwelling (assuming 2.3 persons per dwelling). CLEVER estimates 500 kWh/pers. (or 1150 kWh/y/dwelling) by 2040.

Assuming linear decrease, this results in 1312 kWh/y/ dwelling by 2035 corresponding to a decrease of -27%)

The CLEVER study specifies the trajectory between 2020 & 2040. Consumption of specific electricity goes from 950 kWh/pers in 2020, to 700 kWh/pers by 2040.

Same reference than for the residential sector

Same reference than for the residential sector

-0,8 -0,8 CLEVER study [CLE-1], p32, residential note.

Decrease use of appliances

Residential

Lower heating setpoint by 2°C

Turn off the lights

Smaller residential area

Reduction in person kilometers/person

Assuming a linear decrease, a consumption of 762 kWh/pers by 2035.

This includes consumption of lightning, going from 69 kWh/pers in 2020 to 47 kWh/pers by 2035.

Final values used correspond to a change from 881 to 715 kWh/person.

Lowering temperature by 1°C reduces consumption by 7%. It's assumed that the relationship is non-linear for 2°C, resulting in a reduction of 12%.

According to CLIMACT data, lightning use in 2022 was of 69 kWh/person.

-1,5 -1,5 CLEVER study [CLE-1], residential note p 47 & 49.

-0,4 -0,4

ADEME estimation for reduction of 1°C [ADE-1]

Where CLEVER suggests 20 - 30 kWh/person by 2050. Assuming a linear decrease, this results in 48 kWh/ person in 2035 -0,1 -0,1 CLEVER study [CLE-1], p32, residential note.

Reduction of 0.4% every year of residential area per person. Note that this can come from increasing the amount of person per dwellings as well as living in smaller homes. / -0,3

Size of average dwelling: EUROSTAT, report 2020. Reduction every year: CLEVER study [CLE-1], residential note

Transport

Drive more slowly (applied on freight and passenger BEV/ PHEV whether LDV or passenger cars)

Lower size of new cars

Reduction of pkm/person applied directly on car consumption -0,2 -0,2

CLEVER [CLE-1] p.17 on transport note. Shows pkm per capita evolution for Belgium, starting from 11 000 pkm/cap in 2015 with 2% evolution between 2015 & 2030. and -16% decrease between 2015 & 2050. This gives 11077 pkm/cap, 10824 pkm/cap in 2035 resulting in a reduction of 2.2% between 2022 & 2035

4% reduction in energy consumption -1,0 -1,0 CLEVER presentation slides[CLE-1], note on transport.

Lower size of new cars from 1770 kg (avg weight of EV in Europe), to 1400 kg by 2035 (-27%). / -0,3

Assumed that new car sales reduce progressively in weight. With car sold up to 2025 sizing 1.7 tons, then 1.5 tons up to 28, then 1.2 tons up to 2.35. this reduces the average EV size from 1.7 to 1.4 tons, a decrease of 27%. This translates to a 5% reduction of energy consumption in 2035 [ICC-1] [UCS-1]