APPENDICES ON THE SCENARIO AND DATA I. ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN BELGIUM

This appendix compiles supplementary information that complements the data presented in Chapter 3 and is utilised to establish the assumptions regarding electricity consumption in Belgium.

I.1. MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS

The consumption forecasts for electricity in Belgium take into account macroeconomic indicators derived from the macroeconomic forecasts report published by the Federal Planning Bureau in June 2022.

Figure I-1 illustrates that the outlook presented in June 2022 depicts a more favourable trend compared to the previous year’s forecast. A more recent economic growth projection in February 2023 from the Federal Planning Bureau suggests that economic activity is evolving slightly more positively than anticipated in the previous year. However, it is important to note that this latest projection does not include all the necessary indicators required for the forecasting tool, such as ‘added value per sector’. Therefore, this report’s electricity usage projection relies on the June 2022 report, which could be considered slightly more conservative in terms of GDP growth when compared to the most recent projections, particularly for the later years.

I.2. COMPARISON WITH OTHER STUDIES

The consumption assumed in the CENTRAL scenario for Belgium is compared to other studies and forecasts found. Those are depicted on Figure I-2. Sources include:

• The 'Fit For 55' MIX from the European Commission [EUC-1];

• EnergyVille-Febeliec – Paths 2050 study [ENE-1];

• Ember – Clean Power pathways [EMB-2];

• TYNDP 2024 and ERAA 2023 data collection National Trends+ (NT+) scenario guidance range.

It can be clearly observed that the consumption values assumed in the CENTRAL scenario lie in the range of the different other studies for Belgium.