NB|AZ Volunteer of the Quarter

We expect to see housing values diminish by 20% from peak levels of 2022. Homebuilders are seeing significant increases in their cancellation rates from near 0% to 25%. Although 20% to 25% has been an historical average, recent cancellation rates are rising above those levels in many cases, along with interest rates for mortgages.

There is an old adage that buyers delay buying decision when interest rates are declining or increasing, and this cycle has not been the exception. We have been advising clients to utilize adjustable terms up to 10 years to take advantage of the current lower rate differential to a 30-year fixed rate, mainly in anticipation of them cooling over the next three-to-five-year period.

The overall job outlook for Arizona has been strong, but is cooling. Many businesses are still having difficulty filling open positions with nearly all industries experiencing significant wage growth expectations from the labor pool.

Arizona State University economists predict the state will continue to add jobs in 2023, with approximately 24,500 net jobs in Arizona. That rate of growth would account for a meager .8% gain, but it’s still positive and beats what many of our neighboring states may experience. Additionally, the 30-year outlook forecasts close to 1.4 million jobs added through 2052, which is robust.

While there isn’t a lot of cheer in the near-term forecast, the expectation is for reasonable and sustainable growth. We anticipate opportunities for contrarian investors to be available between now and the next 18 to 24 months.

Opportunities for investors who prefer confirmed data points and trend lines are not likely to emerge until after that time. We are in pretty good shape relative to core economic fundamentals here in Arizona, and benefit from a highly competitive economy relative to many of our neighboring states.

Stay positive and find ways to benefit your community through active engagement both professionally and philanthropically with local organizations.

Mark Young PRESIDENT AND CEO NATIONAL BANK OF ARIZONA

EACH QUARTER, we celebrate the volunteerism efforts of our associates. Our volunteer of the quarter for 3Q22 is Sandy Navarrete. A retail regional sales manager in Yuma, Sandy is being recognized for the volunteer work she does for such organizations as the Yuma Community Food Bank, Arizona Historical Society, and the Yuma County Industrial Development Authority.

Sandy leads a group of NB|AZ associates who volunteer at least once a quarter for the Yuma Community Food Bank, where they sort food or build food bags to distribute to families in need. She says she chose the food bank because it’s a great organization that truly helps the community in their time of need. The Yuma area has a significant seasonal work population that is dependent on this assistance while agriculture is down during the hot summer months.

Sandy is also on the finance committee for the Arizona Historical Society. The committee reviews financials and makes recommendations on saving money or bringing more money in to help different charters. After participating in her first call with the society, she was hooked.

“It’s great to see how a nonprofit works and how we can help others become more effective and efficient in their financial operations to continue seeing them succeed,” she says.

Furthering her work in the community, Sandy works with the Yuma County Industrial Development Authority, which reviews new construction projects that come to the city. As a volunteer, she helps decide if each new project is a good investment and verifies if appropriate financing is available to start and complete the projects. She also reviews paperwork associated with the new business or construction, and makes recommendations on where the new construction should be placed.

“I usually volunteer with organizations that really make an impact in people’s lives, whether it’s in an economic, social or educational capacity,” Sandy says. “I believe it takes a village to have a successful and productive society. I love to volunteer. It gives me a sense of purpose knowing that can make a difference in people’s lives…even if it’s just a little.”

THE HOLIDAYS are a time for sharing, caring and spreading joy. As part of our company picnic in early November, NB|AZ associates collected food donations totaling 550 pounds, which will allow St. Mary’s Food Bank to provide enough food to make 459 meals for those in need in our community.

Associates around the state also volunteered their time at local food banks to help during this busy time of year, and more than 40 children from Southwest Human Development were “adopted” for the holidays, receiving gifts from their Gingerbread Kids Wish List.