Wisconsin'sChangingNovember2020Vote History
NineofficialWECvoterdatabases,2023–2026,comparedagainstthestate'sreportedballot total
June4,2026•Dataanalysisby:SteveHufton
ExecutiveSummary
BetweenFebruary2023andMay2026,ninecompletesnapshotsofWisconsin's statewidevoterregistrationdatabase(WisVote)werepurchaseddirectlyfromthe WisconsinElectionsCommission(WEC).EverysnapshotistheALLlist:active andinactiveregistrantstogether.Foreachsnapshot,thenumberofvoterrecords carryingaparticipationmark(“Absentee”or“AtPolls”)fortheNovember3,2020 GeneralElectionwascountedandcomparedtotheofficialballottotalWisconsin reportedtothefederalElectionAssistanceCommission:3,308,331ballotscast.1
Thatnumbershouldbeafixedhistoricalfact.Itisnot.Acrosstheninesnapshots, thecountofWisconsinitescreditedwithvotinginNovember2020 fellby43,870 recordsbetweenMayandAugust2024,then roseby106,898 recordsbyMay 2026.AsoftheMay2026database,Wisconsin'sofficialvoterlistcredits 3,379,178peoplewithvotinginanelectioninwhichthestatesays3,308,331 ballotswerecast,a surplusof70,847votersoverballots.
NoroutineexplanationsurvivesWEC'sownpublicstatements.Inrecorded testimonybeforetheLegislature'selectionscommittee,WECAdministratorWolfe andDeputyAdministratorKehoestatedthatrecordsareneverdeletedfromthe statewidelist.2 Becauseeverysnapshotincludesinactivevoters,listmaintenance cannotreducethesecountseither.Onlyonemechanismremains:theNovember 2020participationhistoryontensofthousandsofexistingrecordswas modified insidethesystemofrecord,yearsaftertheelection,atminimumroughly 150,000grossfieldchangesbetween2024and2026.
Thisreportdoesnotallegewhomadethesechangesorwhy.Itestablishes,from WEC'sowndataproductsandWEC'sowntestimony,thattheyoccurred,and thatWECmustexplainwhomodifiedfederalelectionparticipationrecordsin 2024–2026,underwhatauthority,andwithwhataudittrail.
1U.S.ElectionAssistanceCommission,ElectionAdministrationandVoting Survey(EAVS),2020,Wisconsin:totalballotscast,3,308,331.TheEAVSfigure isself-reportedtotheEACbytheWisconsinElectionsCommission.
2RecordedtestimonyofWECAdministratorWolfeandDeputyAdministrator KehoebeforetheWisconsinLegislature'selectionscommittee,statingthat recordsareneverdeletedfromthestatewidevoterlist.
1.SourcesandMethod
NinesnapshotsoftheWisVotestatewidevoterfilewerepurchasedfromWECon thefollowingapproximatedates:February2023,July2023,March2024,May 2024,August2024,September2024,February2025,May2025,andMay2026. EachpurchasewasthecompleteALLlist(activeandinactiveregistrants).Each recordineachsnapshotincludesper-electionparticipationfields;forthe November3,2020GeneralElectionarecordshows“Absentee,”“AtPolls,”an “X,”oranemptyfield.
Foreverysnapshot,theAbsenteeandAtPollscountsweresummedtogivethe numberofregistrantsthatsnapshotcreditswithvotinginNovember2020.The benchmarkis3,308,331,thetotalballotscastthatWisconsinreportedtotheU.S. ElectionAssistanceCommission.3 Allcountsanddifferencesbelowwere independentlyrecomputedfromthesourcespreadsheetandverifiedagainstthe underlyingsnapshottotals.
2.Findings
WECdatabase snapshot Recordscreditedwith votingNov.3,2020 Deviationfrom
CountsofrecordsmarkedAbsenteeorAtPollsforNov.3,2020,ineachWECALL-listsnapshot.Source: 2026.05.21b_ElectionCounts_9DBs_with.Nov2020.EAC.Diffs.xlsx(S.Hufton),columnAU;independentlyverified.
3EAVS2020,Wisconsin;seenote1.
DeviationfromthereportedNovember2020ballottotal(3,308,331)acrosstheninesnapshots(S.Hufton).
Threefactsstandout:
1. Thehistoryisunstableinbothdirections. BetweentheMay2024and August2024snapshots,43,870fewerrecordscarriedaNovember2020 votecredit(Absentee−29,607;AtPolls−14,263),whilethecountofempty participationfieldsjumpedby100,793.BetweenAugust2024andMay 2026thecreditedcountroseby106,898,including51,321newcredits (34,392Absentee;16,929AtPolls)inthefinalyearalone,morethanfive yearsaftertheelection.
2. Thenetswingsarefloors,nottotals. Anetlossof43,870followedbya netgainof106,898meansatminimumroughly150,000grosschangesto November2020participationfieldsbetween2024and2026.Additionsand removalsoccurringwithinthesameintervalcancelinnetfigures,sothe truechurnmaybehigher.
3. Thecurrentstateisasurplus. TheMay2026databasecredits 3,379,178voterswithparticipatinginanelectionof3,308,331ballots: 70,847morevotersthanballots.Undervotes,latecorrections,andsimilar artifactscanexplainadatabaseshowingfewercreditedvotersthan ballots;nothingroutineexplainsmore.
3.WhyRoutineExplanationsFail
Twofacts,bothoriginatingwithWEC,eliminatethestandardexplanations.
• Recordsareneverdeleted. AdministratorWolfeandDeputy AdministratorKehoetestifiedontherecordthatnothingisdeletedfromthe
statewidevoterlist.4 Thedataisconsistentwiththattestimony:totalrecord countsacrosstheninesnapshotsonlygrow,from7,436,867(February 2023)to8,354,245(May2026),nevershrinking.
• Everysnapshotincludesinactivevoters. Becauseeachpurchaseisthe ALLlist,votersdeactivatedthroughroutinelistmaintenanceremaininthe filewiththeirhistoryintact.Deactivationthereforecannotreducethe November2020counts.
Ifnorecordleavesthefileandnorecordisdeleted,thecountofrecordscredited withvotinginapastelectioncanonlystayflatorgrowthroughlegitimatelate corrections.Itcannotfallby43,870inasinglequarter.Theonlymechanism consistentwithboththedataandWEC'stestimonyisthattheNovember2020 participationfielditselfwaschangedonexistingrecords:clearedontensof thousandsofrecordsinmid-2024,andwrittenontotensofthousandsofothersin 2025–2026.TheAugust2024numbersshowthesignaturedirectly:votecredits fellby43,870whileemptyparticipationfieldsroseby100,793inthesame snapshot.
Wisconsin'sstatutoryschemecontemplatesparticipationhistorybeingrecorded bymunicipalclerksshortlyaftereachelection(seeWis.Stat.§6.56, reconciliationofpolllistsandvotingrecords).Masschangestoafederal election'sparticipationrecordsfourtosixyearslatersitoutsidethatprocess.
4.ReportsClaim
Wisconsin'ssystemofrecordforwhovotedinNovember2020hasbeen materiallyrewrittensince2024,andcurrentlycontradictsthestate'sownreported ballottotalby70,847inthesurplusdirection.Thatfindingrestsentirelyondata productssoldbyWECandonWEC'sowntestimony.
Onerelatedfigureshouldnotbeconfusedwiththeanomalyabove.Wisconsin's certifiedpresidentialvotetotalis3,298,041,5 whichis10,290belowthe 3,308,331ballotscast.Thatgapisexpectedandnormal:itreflectsballotson whichnovalidpresidentialvotewasrecorded(undervotes,overvotes,write-in spoilage),about0.31percent,atypicalresidualrate.Theanomalyinthisreport istheinstabilityoftheparticipationrecordsandthepresent-daysurplus,notthat gap.
5.QuestionsWECMustAnswer,andNextSteps
4WolfeandKehoetestimony;seenote2.
5WisconsinElectionsCommission,certifiedresultsoftheNovember3,2020 GeneralElection(PresidentoftheUnitedStates),asconfirmedbythepartial recountofDaneandMilwaukeeCounties:3,298,041totalpresidentialvotes.
1. Identifythechangedrecords. Becausetherawsnapshotsareretained, arecord-levelcomparisonofVoterRegistrationNumbersbetweentheMay 2024andAugust2024fileswillidentifytheapproximately44,000records whoseNovember2020creditwasremoved,andtheMay2025versusMay 2026comparisonwillidentifytheapproximately51,000recordsthatnewly acquiredone,bymunicipality,registrationdate,andvotingmethod.This workisinprogressandmakeseveryclaiminthisreportfalsifiableatthe individual-recordlevel.
2. Obtaintheaudittrail. WisVotelogsuseractions.Publicrecordsrequests shouldseektheauditlogscoveringthetwomodificationwindows (May–August2024andMay2025–May2026)forchangestoNovember3, 2020participationfields,includingtheuseraccountsandprocessesthat executedthem.
3. AwrittenexplanationfromWEC. WhoauthorizedchangestoNovember 2020participationhistoryin2024–2026,underwhatstatutoryauthority, andwhydoesthecurrentstatewidedatabasecredit70,847morevoters thanballotscast?
4. Recommendation:anchortheballotcount. WECshouldpublishan officialtotal-ballots-castfigureonelectionnightandagainatcertification (approximately10daysaftereachelection).Todaytheonlyauthoritative ballottotalisthebiennialEAVSsurvey,self-reportedbyWECandnot auditableagainstthelivedatabase,whichiswhydriftofthissizecan persistundetectedforyears.
5. Sequential,UniformVoterIDAssignment: iftherearecurrently1000 votersregistered,thenextpersonwhoregisterstovoteisassignedvoter IDno.1001,thenext1002andsoforthandsoon.AsDrAndrewPaquette (@zarkfiles),JeffO’Donnell(@FSociety_1942)andmyselfargue:the currentalgoassigningofvoterID’senablesthebackdatingofnewrecords withnoevidenceitwasdone.
AthankyoutoSteveHuftonforrunningthedata.@nogabapentin4u