EGYPTAIR News 14 feb 2015

‫‪http://www.almasalla.travel/‬‬

‫ٍصشىيغُشاُ رْظٌ َىً اىىفبء ىزنشٌَ اىَذبىُِ ىيزقبػذ ثبىششمخ اىقبثضخ‬ ‫فٍ جى أسشي سائغ ّظَذ اىيجْخ اىْقبثُخ ىيؼبٍيُِ ثبىششمخ اىقبثضخ‬ ‫ىَصشىيغُشاُ دفال ىزنشٌَ ‪ 101‬صٍُال وصٍُيخ ٍِ اىَذبىُِ ىيزقبػذ ثبىششمخ‬ ‫اىقبثضخ وقغبػبرهب خاله ػبً ‪ 2014‬ثذضىس اىغُبس سبٍخ اىذفًْ سئُس‬ ‫ٍصشىيغُشاُ و" دسِ شذبره " سئُس اىْقبثخ اىؼبٍخ ىيْقو اىجىي و"ٍذَذ‬ ‫خشجه" سئُس اىيجْخ اىْقبثُخ ىيؼبٍيُِ ثبىششمخ اىقبثضخ ‪.‬‬

‫وقذ أػشة اىغُبس سبٍخ اىذفًْ ػِ سؼبدره ثذضىس اىذفو اىزي َجسذ ٍؼًْ‬ ‫اىىفبء واىؼشفبُ ثبىجَُو ألثْبء اىششمخ اىزَِ ثزىىا اىىقذ واىجهذ ىشفؼخ‬ ‫اىششمخ اىىعُْخ ووضؼهب فٍ ٍصبف ششمبد اىغُشاُ اىؼبىَُخ‪ ،‬وقبً ثَصبفذخ‬ ‫جَُغ اىَنشٍُِ وٍْذهٌ شهبداد رقذَش وٍنبفأح ٍبىُخ رقذَشا ىجهىدهٌ خاله‬ ‫األػىاً اىَبضُخ‪ .‬وأمذ ىهٌ أُ ٍصشىيغُشاُ سُظو ثبثهب ٍفزىدب دائَب أٍبً‬ ‫أثْبئهب‬

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‫(ربثغ)‬ ‫ٍِ ّبدُخ أخشي رقذً "ٍذَذ خشجه" سئُس اىيجْخ اىْقبثُخ ثبىششمخ اىقبثضخ‬ ‫ثبىشنش ىجَُغ اىذضىس وػيً سأسهٌ اىغُبس سبٍخ اىذفًْ ػيً سػبَزه‬ ‫اىنشَ​َخ ىهزا اىذفو ورقذً ثبىزهْئخ ىيسبدح اىَنشٍُِ ٍزَُْب ىهٌ اإلسزَزبع‬ ‫ثبىَشديخ اىجذَذح ٍِ دُبرهٌ وأُ َىفق اهلل اىؼبٍيُِ اىذبىُ​ُِ فٍ إسزنَبه‬ ‫ٍسُشح اىْجبح خبصخ وأُ اىششمخ ػبٍشح ثبىنىادس اىجششَخ اىَزَُضح‪.‬‬

‫قبً ثزقذٌَ اىذفو ػجذ اىؼظٌُ صذقٍ ػضى اىيجْخ اىْقبثُخ وٍسزشبس اػالٍ​ٍ‬ ‫سئُس اىششمخ اىقبثضخ ىيَغبساد واىَالدخ اىجىَخ واىششمخ اىقبثضخ ىَصش‬ ‫ىيغُشاُ‪ ،‬مَب أششف ػيٍ رْظٌُ اىذفو اإلداسح اىؼبٍخ ىيؼالقبد اىؼبٍخ واإلداسح‬ ‫اىؼبٍخ ىيذػبَخ واإلػالً ثبىششمخ اىقبثضخ ىَصش ىيغُشاُ‬

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‫وصَش اىغُشاُ ىـ «اىىادي»‪ٍ :‬سزؼذوُ إلجالء اىَصشَُِ ٍِ ىُجُب ‪ ..‬وّْزظش‬ ‫رؼيَُبد اىخبسجُخ‬ ‫امذ اىغُبس دسبً مَبه وصَش اىغُشاُ اىَذًّ فً رصشَخ خبص ىيىادي ‪ ،‬ثبُ‬ ‫ٍصش ىيغُشاُ ػيً ارٌ االسزؼذاد الجالء اىَصشَُِ فً ىُجُب ‪ ،‬ػْذ صذوس‬ ‫رؼيَُبد ٍِ وصاسح اىخبسجُخ ثزىل‪.‬‬ ‫وأوضخ أّه سجق ورٌ اجالء اػذاد مجُشح ٍِ اىَصشَُِ اىؼبً اىَبضً ثبىزْسُق‬ ‫ٍغ وصاسح اىخبسجُخ ‪ ،‬ػِ عشَق رجَؼهٌ ثزىّس ‪.‬‬ ‫وقبه وصَش اىغُشاُ ‪ ،‬ثبُ ٍصش ىيغُشاُ رىقفذ ٍْز فزشح ػِ سدالرهب‬ ‫ىيَغبساد اىيُجُخ ثسجت االوضبع االٍُْخ هْبك‪ ،‬ثشنو َزؼبسض ٍغ االٍِ‬ ‫واىسالٍخ اىجىَخ ‪ ،‬وىنِ هْبك ششمبد ىُجُخ رؼَو ٍِ ٍغبساد ىُجُخ اىً ثشج‬ ‫اىؼشة ‪.‬‬

‫وٍِ ّبدُخ أخشي أوضخ اىىصَش‪ ،‬ثبُ هْبك رْسُق دائٌ ٍغ وصاسح اىسُبدخ ‪،‬‬ ‫ىزْشُظ اىذشمخ اىسُبدُخ ‪ ،‬فً اىَذُ اىسُبدُخ اىَصشَخ‪ ،‬ورىل ثؼَو اسؼبس‬ ‫خبصخ ورخفُضبد فً اىشسىً ىششمبد اىشبسرش االجْجُخ واىَصشَخ ‪.‬‬

‫‪www.libyaakhbar.com‬‬

‫اػالُ اىغىاسئ ثَغبس اىقبهشح اثش اّجؼبس دخبُ ٍِ عبئشح ٍصش‬ ‫ىيغُشاُ‬ ‫أعلٌج سلطاث هطار القاهرة ‪ ،‬اليىم الجوعت ‪ ،‬حالت الطىاريء اثر‬ ‫إًبعاد دخاى فً طائرة حابعت لشركت هصر للطيراى قبل دقائق هي‬ ‫إقالعها ‪ .‬وقالج هصادر هالحيت بالوطار ( إًه أثٌاء ححرك الرحلت‬ ‫الوخجهت إلً أهسخردام ‪ ،‬فىجًء قائد الطائرة بإًبعاد دخاى في غرفت‬ ‫القيادة وعلً الفىر هرعج سياراث الوطافًء إلً هىقع الطائرة خىفا هي‬ ‫حدود حريق ) ‪ .‬وأضافج الوصادر " بعد ايقاف هحركاث الطائرة وهً‬ ‫هي طراز بىيٌج ‪ 737‬حن إًسال ركابها البالغ عددهن ‪ 60‬راكبا ‪....‬‬

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‫اىخغىط اىسؼىدَخ رشغو سدالد ٍجبششح ثُِ جذح واىؼال ‪ 26‬فجشاَش‬ ‫اىجبسي‬ ‫اىشَبض "اىَسيخ" ‪ ...‬رجذأ اىخغىط اىسؼىدَخ اػزجبساً ٍِ ‪ 26‬فجشاَش‬ ‫‪ 2015‬رشغُو سدالرهب اىَجبششح ثُِ جذح واىؼال فٍ إعبس خغزهب‬ ‫االسزشارُجُخ ىخذٍخ دشمخ اىسفش اىَزْبٍُخ ثُِ ٍخزيف ٍْبعق اىَ​َينخ‬ ‫ثبإلضبفخ إىً رشجُغ ودػٌ اىسُبدخ اىذاخيُخ‪.‬‬

‫أوضخ رىل ٍسبػذ ٍذَش ػبً اىخغىط اىسؼىدَخ اىزْفُزٌ ىيؼالقبد‬ ‫اىؼبٍخ اىسُذ ػجذاهلل األجهش ٍشُشًا إىً أُ اىزشغُو ػيً هزا اىقغبع‬ ‫سُزٌ ثىاقغ سديزُِ أسجىػُبً‬

http://www.atn.aero

ANA HOLDINGS Announces New CEO and Chairman ANA HOLDINGS )hereafter “ANA HD”( today announces changes to its board. Shinya Katanozaka, Senior Executive Vice President, will succeed Shinichiro Ito as President and CEO from 1 Aprilwhile Mr. Ito will take over from Yoji Ohashi as Chairman of ANA HD on the same date.

Mr. Katanozaka joined ANA in 1979, after graduating from Tokyo University‟s Faculty of Law. He has held a wide range of senior positions within the group, and was one of the key architects of ANA‟s new holding company structure put in place two years ago. He is aged 59.

In his 36 years at ANA, Mr. Katanozaka has led a number of the company‟s major divisions, including corporate planning, marketing & sales, products & services strategy, Customer Satisfaction promotion and personnel.

Mr. Ito was appointed President and CEO of ANA in April 2009 and became President and CEO of ANA HD in 2013.

During his leadership of the group, ANA has become Japan‟s biggest airline by passenger numbers and revenues and has embarked on a major expansion of its international network.

Mr. Ohashi, who became Chairman of ANA in April 2005 after previously serving as the company‟s President and CEO, will continue to act as a Corporate Counselor of ANA HD. Mr. Katanozaka joined the board of ANA in 2009 when he

was named Senior Vice President,Marketing & Executive Vice President of ANA HD

http://www.atn.aero

(Continue) Sales, Customer SatisfactionPromotion, Products & Services Strategy. Under his leadership, ANA introduced the „Inspiration of JAPAN‟ brand and its fully-flat seat in Business Class. The achievement led ANA to be awarded Japan‟s first „5-Star airline‟

by SKYTRAX in 2013.

Prior to taking up this position, Mr. Katanozaka was Senior Vice President for Personnel, during which time he contributed to the strengthening of training and human resource development in the group. In April 2012, he was appointed as Senior Executive Vice President, Corporate Planning. He played an important role in executing the strategic transition to a new holding company structure. In April 2013, ANA Group moved to a holding company structure and Mr. Katanozaka was appointed Senior

http://www.theguardian.com

JFK airport baggage handlers strike despite sacking threat Contract workers at New York‟s John F Kennedy airport took strike action on Thursday morning despite a recent letter sent by their employer warning of possible consequences including termination.

British Airways and United Airlines passengers arriving at JFK were greeted by a picket line of striking baggage handlers. Some people snapped photos and videos as they passed.

The workers who were on strike are employed by Aviation Safeguards, part of Command Security – a company that provides baggage handlers and security guards to various airlines at New York City‟s airports. About 100 of those workers handle baggage for British Airways and United Airlines at JFK. The reason for Thursday‟s strike was the lack of union representation, low wages and a hostile working environment, say the workers. The strike also served to prove a point, as Aviation Safeguards recently sent a letter to its employees informing them of potential consequences, including termination, for striking and speaking out.

Holding signs that read “Stop Illegal Threats”, the workers marched in circles and chanted: “Airport workers under attack, what do we do? Stand up, fight back.”

http://www.theguardian.com

(continue) “There have been no threats. There has been none of that,” Craig P Coy, the CEO of Command Security, told the Guardian. The letter was only intended to inform the workers of what can happen to employees who strike, under the Railway Labor Act, if the company chose to act, he said. “We want to make sure the employees are aware and not surprised by what the law is,” he said.

According to the strike‟s organizers, only about three of the 27 Aviation Safeguards employees scheduled to work on Thursday morning went to work. The majority of the 24 employees went on the strike – the remaining handful opted to call in sick.

Aviation Safeguards challenged those numbers.

“I am not there but what I was told is that we had a few people went out this morning but they are back to work and most of the people out there do not work for us,” Coy said a little after noon.

At that time about 50 people – some wearing Aviation Safeguards winter coats – were still marching in circles outside Terminal 7.

I am not saying there aren‟t any employees out there. I am just saying that my experience has been that most of them are not,” Coy said.

By late afternoon some of the protesters were spotted by the Guardian wearing bright yellow vests on top of their coats and working.

http://www.theguardian.com

(continue) While capturing the attention of arriving passengers, the strike didn‟t seem to disrupt the airlines‟ services.

“Our flights are operating as normal. Aviation Safeguards has assured us there will be no disruption to our customers‟ service,” a British Airways spokesperson told the Guardian. „We should be paid a lot better‟ Pedro Gamboa Bermudez, 58, joined the picket line at 6am. Instead of working his seven hour shift from 4am to 11am, he marched outside demanding better working conditions. Bermudez has been working for Aviation Safeguards for four and half years as a baggage handler.

Most often he works for British Airways loading bags on the conveyor belt so that they can be X-rayed by the TSA. When he started working for Aviation Safeguards, Bermudez was making $8 an hour. Thanks to a recent ruling by Port Authority, he and about 12,000 other contractors‟ employees now make $10.10 an hour. The increase was a victory but not enough, protesters said.

Advertisement The workers need a living wage to make ends meet in New York, said state senator James Sanders Jr, who came out to provide his support to the strike.

“We really don‟t have a target price but we do know because of the value of our work that we should be paid a lot better for what we do,” said Bermudez. “We know that the airlines, not only do they make millions, they make

http://www.theguardian.com

(continue) billions, billions of dollars. We don‟t get to see nothing.”

International Airlines Group, owner of British Airways, is aiming for operating profit of €1.8bn – equivalent to £1.41bn and US$2bn – in 2015, according to Reuters.

The protest is just the latest in a series organized by 32BJ SEIU union, which hopes to represent the contractors‟ employees in the near future.

“Welcome again to John F Kennedy airport, the largest sweatshop in NYC, where people work in poverty wages, multiple jobs, don‟t have healthcare, have their rights violated,” said Rob Hill, vice president of 32BJ. “What this strike today is about, we got to teach a bully a lesson. That bully is Aviation Safeguards, who hasn‟t gotten a message that airport workers have woken up …

The airport workers aren‟t going to work without dignity anymore.”

'We wear red, they wear blue': Delta contractors barely braving the cold Read more The union‟s involvement in these strikes is a cause of frustration to Aviation Safeguards.

In May 2014, 3,800 contractors‟ employees voted to be represented by 32BJ, according to the Associated Press and the Wall Street Journal. The union says that Aviation Safeguards employees were part of the vote. Bermudez remembers participating in the vote and so does Gian Lopez, who is employed by Aviation Safeguards as baggage handler for Delta.

http://www.theguardian.com

(continue) Coy insists that no vote by Aviation Safeguards employees took place.

“There is no recognition of this union. They don‟t represent the employees. If employees want to vote for them, they should vote for them and follow the process.

We support the employees,” said Coy, pointing out that the company provided healthcare, benefits and supported the recent increase to $10.10.

Bermudez, striking for the first time, said the company healthcare was too expensive. “I didn‟t enrol for the one they offered me because if I enrol, I am not making enough to pay for it and I would not have anything to support myself,” he explained.

The John F Kennedy baggage workers employed by Aviation Safeguards were joined by other employees including security guards and baggage handlers from LaGuardia, who came on their day off or after their shift.

Among them was Lopez. As he walked over, Lopez was wearing a bright red and blue NY Giants hat and a brand new Aviation Safeguards coat.

Lopez received the new coat from his supervisor after the Guardian reported that his uniform was not weatherappropriate.

“It‟s warmer,” Lopez said of the coat, smiling. .

http://centreforaviation.com

Aviation and oil prices: potentially a negative for airport capital expenditure. Time for PPPs? Coy insists that no vote by Aviation Safeguards employees took place.

The price of a barrel of Brent Crude, the most popular method of tracking oil prices, is today around USD56 a barrel - and this follows a (brief?) rally. A year ago it was trading above USD100.

The falling oil price has already prompted the likes of BP, Shell, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Russiaâ€&#x;s Gazprom and Chinaâ€&#x;s Cnooc to announce cuts in investment. It is occasioned, in the main, by steadily rising supply from non-OPEC countries, and especially from the US, and is, in theory at least, good news for air travellers, if and when airlines feel able to pass on any savings to their customers (assuming they are able to, they may be hedged at higher rates). Some airlines in Southeast Asia and China have already reduced their fuel price surcharge, at least.

But the other side of the industry coin is that some countries may feel the squeeze on their big ticket airport construction projects. Already, they are looking to trim them back. At the very least, smaller construction projects could be postponed or abandoned in many countries, either because the revenues to support them have been reduced or because of declining investment in neighbouring oil facilities and consequential effects on passenger traffic flows, as employees are laid off and executive travel cut back.

http://centreforaviation.com

(continue) This could be the moment when the PPP, already gaining in popularity as a method of ensuring critical airport infrastructure is secured, makes a quantum leap - but the private sector must have confidence in its counterparts in the public arena.

Rising supply is the main cause of the oil price drop The scale of the price reduction can be instantly ascertained from the chart below, which is accurate to 02-Feb-2015.

Oil prices (USD/barrel) – most recent quarter: 02-Nov2014 to 02-Feb-2015

The biggest cause of the falling price is rising supply from non-OPEC countries, particularly from the US and Canada, and partly as an offshoot of burgeoning shale oil and gas industries there. The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes that US supply alone will raise total non-OPEC production by a record 1.9 million barrels per day in 2015. (OPEC is responsible for about 40% of the worldâ€&#x;s oil supplies(.

http://centreforaviation.com

(continue) There is no guarantee that oil prices will remain in this zone and the small but significant increase in the last week is noted. Indeed, according to OPEC's Secretary-General Abdulla al-Badri we have already hit bottom. Not only that; he sees a real possibility that oil prices could dramatically explode to upwards of USD200 per barrel in the future (a figure that aviation analysts worried about incessantly during 2008/9 because at that level operating just about any airline is unsustainable).

The Secretary General is not party to the belief that his organisation will ride in and rescue the oil market by reversing its previous commitment to holding steady on production.

Rather, he takes the view that the oil market is ‘self-correcting’ as oil companies have made deep cuts to their spending, which will eventually lead on to lower production growth.

Furthermore, the oil rig count in the US is plunging, which is regarded by some as an indicator of a bottoming in oil prices.

Then again, Citi's leading commodity research analyst suggests that the price could go as low as "the USD20 range for a while", reducing Citi's forecast for 2015 of an average price of USD54, down from its previous USD63 forecast.

The simple fact: nobody knows. Not even OPEC. The long term impact of short term low priced oil will be today's under investment

http://centreforaviation.com

(continue) However, in the midst of all the cutting back as the industry works through the current oversupply Secretary-General al-Badri also warns that the industry is putting future oil supplies at risk by under-investing today. The same may be true for airport investment.

Some oil industry analysts take the view that OPEC is a participant in a game and that an equally likely outcome is that under-investment has the potential at least to cause oil prices to rocket higher if demand grows faster than future supplies. In other words, OPEC is happy to endure short-term pain for the potential of a big long-term gain.

But assuming that, unlikely as it may seem, he is wrong, and that oil prices continue to land south of USD75 for the foreseeable future. Or that they continue to rally for a short time only then plunge below USD50 again.

That will have a serious impact on the ability of many states to balance their budgets. Treasuries do not respond well to instability, notably when they are relying on the income from oil to underwrite their budget.

As the chart below indicates at least 11 states need the oil price to be above USD75/barrel in order to do so.

Marginal breakeven cost of production by country

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(continue) All but three of these are in the Middle East, West Asia or North Africa.

Furthermore, as this analysis by Deutsche Bank from Oct-2014 makes clear, that breakeven figure has been rising steadily over the years.

Fiscal breakeven price (Brent crude USD bbl) 2006-2015f

Deficits are a bigger problem for some countries than others.

Owing to their considerable dollar reserves, the Saudis can afford to overspend for a while at least, while Russia, too, has a cushion. But countries like Nigeria that barely have any reserves are in far greater trouble. Nigeria only has one quarterâ€&#x;s worth of assets to play with oil at USD83/barrel.

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(continue) Many of the high cost oil producers are due to be the biggest airport investors Indeed, in another survey undertaken by the BBC in the UK, only the (non-OPEC) Kazakhstan could sustain oil production at USD50/barrel, that mainly due to the 2014 shutdown of the Kashagan oil field and the payment of “subsistence wages� to oil workers.

There are 115 countries producing oil, from 10.5 million barrels per day (bpd) to just 2,000 in the case of Panama.

The real power, though, resides with the top 30 producers, those that extract more than half a million barrels each day.

All 12 of the OPEC members are represented, with the exception of Ecuador, which currently comes in at number 31 on the list.

http://centreforaviation.com

(continue) The worldâ€&#x;s top 30 oil producing nations, over 500,000 barrels/day, including OPEC members

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(continue) Coincidentally, many of the countries are also the location of some of the world’s largest airport construction projects, as shown in the following table.

The worldâ€&#x;s largest airport projects in oil producing countries

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(continue)

This report deals mainly (but not exclusively) with those countries where the state has overall responsibility for airport construction and associated investment and where oil revenues are a significant part of its income.

Non-oil dependent states could also experience turmoil in their infrastructure - for example as the result of exposure of neighbouring oil producing states to the situation that exists momentarily, the Gulf being a good example.

There is a possibility that non-oil dependent states could thrive as investment funds are redirected their way but there are always other factors involved and such a possibility requires further research and a separate report.

http://centreforaviation.com

(continue) The Middle East is the most likely region to suffer investment setbacks Diversified industries help protect UAE airport investments Two of the largest airport construction projects anywhere are at the existing Dubai International and under-construction Dubai World Central airports in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), totalling in excess of USD44 billion and with completion dates varying from Q42015 to 2027 in the case of DWC. Dubai is expected to become the world‟s largest hub for air transport by around 2020, once DWC (aka Al Maktoum) comes fully on stream. Dubai International overtook London Heathrow to the title of world‟s busiest international airport in 2014 and is the sixth busiest overall with 70.3 million passengers (+6.1%) in that year.

The UAE‟s airports also include Abu Dhabi, an emirate that is more oil dependent than is Dubai, but where economic diversification has encouraged the country‟s non-oil and gas GDP to outstrip that attributable to the energy sector to an extent that non-oil and gas GDP now constitutes 64% of the UAE‟s total GDP. Those airports are state-funded but do not appear to be at risk yet, partly because of the diversification of revenue earning activities in Abu Dhabi and the fact that only around 7% of the Dubai emirate's revenues now emanate from oil and natural gas.

In any case those reserves are expected to run out in 20 years or so and Dubai has therefore carved an economic future for itself that is more related to trade, entrepôt activities, financial services and tourism; all of which require investment in the final part of the Dubai economic jigsaw, construction.

http://centreforaviation.com

(continue) Overall, the UAE is not considered to be at risk in this respect just yet at least. But the effect of the oil price drop has been more in evidence elsewhere in the region and notably in Kuwait and Oman.

Kuwait's airport project could be broken into three parts, with private investment possible Like the UAE, Kuwait has amassed considerable foreign currency reserves, which means that they could run deficits for several years if necessary. But low oil prices does focus the mind and influence decisons on government expentiure.

Kuwait is apparently already considering breaking up the USD4.8 billion Kuwait International Airport expansion project into three parts and in Jan-2015 formed a committee to do just that.

Options include adding new terms for current major contractor Kharafi National Engineering and Procurement, breaking the work up into separate private contracts, using government engineering resources for certain infrastructure elements or excluding certain elements of infrastructure development to reduce costs. The development plan as it exists before any cutbacks will increase capacity to 25 million passengers per annum by 2025 (from 13 million) and is expected to be completed by 2020. The Kuwaitis are inherently nervous about this sort of infrastructure; previous plans have been cancelled on several occasions.

On 08-Feb-2015 fears were realised when the Ministry of Public Works tender committee recommended rejecting all bids for the development of new terminal and infrastructure modernisation at the airport. A joint venture between Kharafi National and Turkeyâ€&#x;s Limak Holding had submitted the lowest bid, of KWD1.4 billion (USD4.8 billion) but it was reported to be 39% above projected programme costs and failed to meet technical specifications.

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(continue) Kuwait is considered to be a Middle East leader in diversifying earnings away from oil exports but that has proved to be difficult since the first Gulf War in 1990-91(which in itself had an adverse upward effect on oil prices and, thereby, aviation). Hence petroleum still accounts for nearly half of GDP and 94% of export revenues and government income.

Oman may also be looking at trimming some of its airport projects it has been working hard to improve its tourism product, which is based on culture, history and nature Having already reduced the parameters for regional airports, which led to a trimmer Cap Ex already, in 2011, Oman may have other options in mind. Situated on the south eastern coast of the Arabian Peninsula, facing the Indian Ocean, Oman has modest oil reserves, ranking at #25 in the global table and it holds a similar rank for natural gas reserves. A relative regional backwater until the last twenty years or so, Oman was awarded the title of the most improved nation in the world in terms of development during the preceding 40 years by the United Nations Development Programme in 2010 and it has been working hard to improve its tourism product, which is based on culture, history and nature rather than the hedonistic pursuits associated with some parts of the UAE. That product, which is expected soon to be one of the countryâ€&#x;s biggest foreign currency earners, requires airport investment, which is being undertaken by the government, a privatisation procedure involving what was then the BAA and the now defunct ABB Equity Ventures having been abandoned in 2004, three years after it began.

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(continue) There are five projects under way in Oman; the main two are at Muscat, the capital, and Salalah. Overall, OMR3 billion (USD7.8 billion) is due to be invested in the Muscat airport over a 10-year period and it is one of the largest projects to ever be undertaken in Oman's history. The Salalah airport is expected to be fully operational before the end of 2015.

Disruption to the oil supply took place between 2000 and 2007, prompting a fall in production of over 25% though it has since recovered. Clearly, despite the diversification into mass tourism and other industries oil remains very important to the economy – it continues to account for 46% of GDP - and to the transport construction needed to sustain new industries such as tourism.

The Public Authority for Civil Aviation and Ministry of Transport & Communication are exploring how to diversify participants in the aviation sector and look at self sustaining concepts including PPPs and other mechanisms to attract private participation in aviation at all levels and particularly in developing commercial sources of revenues. That process has most definitely accelerated since the oil price dropped below USD 100 per barrel and is supported by successful privatisations in the utilities sector.

Saudi Arabia has deep pockets and can withstand lower prices Another Middle East country where the falling oil price might eventually have an adverse effect is Saudi Arabia.

The world has been anticipating that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter and OPEC's most influential member, would support global oil prices by cutting back its own production, but there is little sign it wants to do this. The reasons are thought to be so that it might instil some „discipline‟ among fellow OPEC oil producers, and perhaps to put the US's burgeoning shale oil and gas industry under pressure.

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(continue) Saudi Arabia is thought to need oil prices to be at the very least USD85 in the longer term, it has deep pockets with a reserve fund of some USD700 billion, so it can withstand lower prices for some time. If a period of lower prices were to force some higher cost producers to shut down, then the country might hope to pick up more market share in the longer run. But there is also some recent history behind the unwillingness to cut production.

In the 1980s, the country did cut production significantly in a bid to boost prices, but it had little effect and it also badly affected the Saudi economy.

The amount of investment in Saudi planned and existing airport projects currently totals around USD10 billion, which includes the soon to be completed USD7.2 billion King Abdulaziz International Airport currently being constructed 19km north of Jeddah, and the expansion of terminals 3 and 4 at Riyadh King Khaled International Airport. The projects are part of a broader master plan to upgrade 37 airports in the country by 2020 and the goal of becoming a major aviation gateway for both domestic and international demand. New airports in Jazan, Abha and Arar will be completed in 2015, under the General Authority of Civil Aviationâ€&#x;s )GACA) efforts to improve infrastructure for domestic air travel.

Some of the other OPEC members in the region, such as Iran and Iraq, with greater domestic budgetary demands because of their large population sizes in relation to their oil revenues, have less room for manoeuvre than others. Indeed, as the above chart demonstrates, Iran needs the oil price to be around USD130 as a minimum in order to balance its budget.

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(continue) Lower prices are bad timing for both Iran and Iraq Iran has enjoyed some easing of sanctions There has been some easing of sanctions in connection with international concern over its nuclear policy and the government must be anxious lest it allows the opportunity to improve both its airline fleets and airport infrastructure to slip away. rThe only really major airport project we are aware of currently is the one to build a new terminal (and possibly another runway) at Tehran‟s Imam Khomeini International Airport, although there are plans for new airports at Ahwaz (ironically linked to the discovery of a new oil field there( and Mash‟had.

In the latter case French and Chinese companies are involved in the financing and at Tehran Aeroports de Lyon and China SCE Property Holdings are reported jointly to be attracted to the chance to bid to operate the Imam Khomeini airport.

Iraq is still in rebuilding mode Iraq is trying to rebuild in a continuously fractious „post-war‟ environment in which religious and ethnic tensions predominate, within the framework of the loss of some parts of the country to the rebel organisation ISIS/ISIL, which has made the problem worse by capturing oil wells and undercutting market prices by selling at a significant discount - around USD30-60 a barrel. It is estimated it is making about USD3 million a day through black market sales, the proceeds of which are almost certainly not going to be directed towards constructing new airports.

As long ago as May-2010, plans were unveiled for an expansion of Baghdad International Airport, to double its capacity to 15 million passengers per year. The expansion, on this occasion to

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(continue) be funded by foreign investors, will include the construction of three new terminals and the refurbishment of the existing three terminals, which will each accommodate 2.5 million passengers annually. General upgrade work began in May-2013 and so far Terminal C has been refurbished. Together with the cost of the terminals the total investment is USD2 billion.

Iraq's Government stated it intends to invest USD50 billion to improve airport infrastructure More recently, in May-2014, Iraq's Government stated it intends to invest USD50 billion to improve airport infrastructure over an unspecified period, including new terminal buildings, air traffic control systems, safety and security measures, IT systems, maintenance and operational facilities. New airports are also under construction near Duhok and Karbala. Under the circumstances it is going to be difficult for the government to attract foreign investors so the availability and price of oil have even greater significance here.

Falling prices are a double edged sword for Egypt The fall in the oil price is regarded as a double edged sword in Egypt, where it will cut Egypt's fuel subsidy bill by USD4.2 billion but it could also hit the finances of oil-exporting Gulf allies who have given Egypt billions of dollars in aid.

Gulf oil exporters have thrown their weight behind Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who orchestrated the overthrow of elected Islamist president Mohamed Mursi in Jul-2013. Saudi Arabia and the UAE consider Egypt a strategic ally in the fight against the Muslim Brotherhood, which they see as a threat to their own ruling orders.

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(continue) However, the sums provided to Egypt so far are relatively small when compared with the Gulf's savings, so it is likely things would probably have to get a lot worse before they cut aid. he country will need extended largesse to continue unless it can attract the private sector Egypt has never more than partially embraced the privatisation of its airports although there are or have been management contracts at Marsa Alam, Alexandria and Cairo. Egypt has been and is the recipient of loans from the World Bank (a Cairo terminal) and Japan (Alexandria Borg el Arab airport) and the country will need extended largesse to continue unless it can attract the private sector, both domestic and international, to projects which include an increase in overall airport capacity from 30 million now to 60 million by 2050, an overhaul of the air navigation system and the USD10.5 billion five-stage, 20-25 year airport city project at Cairo.

That project is expected to generate direct employment for up to 30,000 workers and indirect employment for another 90,000.

(Note the estimated cost of that enterprise continues to fall, from USD18 billion to USD15 billion to todayâ€&#x;s estimate of USD10.5 billion).

Russia is in urgent need of private sector support for airport development Moving away from the Middle East and North Africa it almost goes without saying that the tumbling oil price has had a dramatic effect on the fortunes of one of the worldâ€&#x;s largest oil producers, Russia.

Rosneft, the partly state-owned oil giant, has already been bailed out with cheap central bank cash to prevent it defaulting on its debts.

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(continue) Russia loses USD2 billion in revenues for every dollar fall in the oil price Falling oil prices, coupled with western sanctions over Russiaâ€&#x;s support for separatists in eastern Ukraine have hit the country hard. Its economy depends on energy revenues; oil and gas account for 70% of Russia's export incomes. Russia hiked its interest rate dramatically to 17% in order to support the rouble, demonstrating how heavily its economy depends on energy revenues, with oil and gas accounting for 70% of export incomes. Russia loses USD2 billion in revenues for every dollar fall in the oil price, and the World Bank has warned that the countryâ€&#x;s economy would shrink by at least 0.7% in 2015 if oil prices do not recover. But, as with Saudi Arabia, Russia looks unlikely to cut production to shore up prices. he government has cut its growth forecast for 2015, predicting, too, that the economy will sink into recession.

There has been a distinct trend towards private sector participation in Russian airport development over a number of years (see the related report: http://centreforaviation.com/analysis/global-airport-finance-andprivatisation-capa-review-2014-the-big-funds-dominatetransactions-202694).

Even so, there are many projects around the country that require a considerable input of public sector funds merely to renovate runways and other infrastructure including areas such as Crimea that have recently come under Russian control. the cabinet calculated that close to USD10 billion would be needed to improve infrastructure in and around the Moscow Air Hub alone

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(continue) 18 months ago the cabinet calculated that close to USD10 billion would be needed to improve infrastructure in and around the Moscow Air Hub alone; the funding to be found in the federal, Moscow and Moscow region transportation budgets. Some of this may come from the private sector as Sheremetyevo and Vnukovo airports are to be merged and privatised but there is still a huge public sector requirement to be catered for by dwindling financial resources.

Kazakhstan has a much lower production price Once a Soviet republic, Kazakhstan is one of the few countries able to balance its budget with such a low oil price as mentioned earlier.

There are numerous large scale airport projects in place and the government investing approximately KZT99 billion (EUR473 million) between 2015 and 2017, involving reconstruction of runways and passenger terminals, the modernisation of Kyzylorda and Shymkent airports, as well as a new passenger terminal building at Astana International Airport. n Africa, Nigeria is a standout problem case Energy sales account for 80% of Nigeriaâ€&#x;s revenue - and airport privatisation process has stalled In Africa, the biggest potential casualty by far is Nigeria. As with Iraq and Iran, Nigeria has greater domestic budgetary demands because of a large population size (at 151 million, it is the most populous country in Africa, accounting for 18% of the continent's inhabitants) in relation to oil revenues.

Nigeria is Africa's biggest oil producer and ranks at #13 on the global production list. It has achieved growth in the rest of its economy but despite this it remains heavily oil-dependent.

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(continue) Energy sales account for up to 80% of all government revenue and more than 90% of the country‟s exports.

Against this background Nigeria has been attempting to privatise its airports for many years, with some small successes such as Lagos International Airport‟s T2, which has been operated under a PPP for several years now. Privatisation is consistently called for, including by FAAN, the Federal Airports Authority, but the process is painfully slow in a country strangled by excessive bureaucracy and other drawbacks. In 2014 the government publicly rejected plans to privatise FAAN because of security reasons, citing the way in which the US government and its agencies had taken a stronger hold on their airports since „9/11.‟ There remains an underlying desire to privatise airports on a 15 to 20-year concession scheme but the political will is weak.

Meanwhile, there is some USD1.7 billion of investment into airports including Lagos, Abuja (the capital) and Port Harcourt, mainly on new terminals.

In Asia, Malaysia is a major regional centre for oil and gas Southeast Asia has only two countries in the top 30 oil producing nations – Indonesia (23) and Malaysia (29).

Despite Malaysia‟s fairly low ranking globally, its oil reserves are the fourth highest in Asia Pacific after China, India, and Vietnam.

669 million barrels were produced in 2014, a reduction of 4% over the previous year. The country is strong in the production of liquefied natural gas, being the world‟s second largest exporter and production has risen over the past two decades to serve the growing domestic demand and export contracts. Nearly all of Malaysia‟s oil comes from offshore fields. Declines in production at Malaysia‟s major producing oil fields in the past decade have led government efforts to encourage investment in enhanced oil recovery and development of smaller and marginal fields, as well as deepwater fields.

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(continue) The oil and gas industry is very significant here. As a result of rising regional and domestic demand for crude oil and oil products, Malaysia plans to become a regional oil trading and storage hub by increasing the country‟s refining and storage capacity.

Most of Malaysia‟s main airports have a degree of protection from the machinations of the oil industry where investment is concerned, as they are privatised by way of a stock market flotation over 15 years ago, the first in Asia. But any loss of oil revenues must impact on investor sentiment in general.

For the moment most of the investment dollar is going into Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA) where KLIA2, the new „budget‟ terminal, opened in May-2014 at a price well over budget of USD1.3 billion. It has since been subject to scrutiny on the grounds of safety concerning ground stability issues.

Nearby Brunei is more dependent on oil The tiny state of less than half a million people is the 48th largest producer globally making it the fifth ranked in the world by gross domestic product per capita at purchasing power parity and the fifth-richest nation out of 182, based on its petroleum and natural gas fields, according to Forbes. The IMF has estimated that Brunei is one of two countries (the other being Libya) with a public debt at 0% of the national GDP. With that level of prosperity a fall in the oil price over even a protracted period should not impose too greatly on the delivery of transport infrastructure but in any event Brunei has already completed the necessary development for the foreseeable future with the transformation of what it calls „a landmark airport terminal‟ and the doubling of capacity from 1.5 million to three million ppa.

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(continue) The modernisation projects, which included new roads, cost BND130 million (Brunei dollars) or USD95.7 million and were completed in Nov-2014. Just in time, perhaps.

The US – Now a major oil producer, but with collapsing infrastructure One of the key determinants of the oil price momentarily of course is the United States, the world‟s third largest producer, owing to the extra supplies emanating from new sources in different parts of the country, and especially in North Dakota. The growth of oil production in North America, and particularly in the US, has been staggering. US production levels are at their highest in almost 30 years. This growth in America‟s energy production, where gas and oil is being extracted from shale formations using hydraulic fracturing or „fracking,‟ has been one of the main drivers of lower oil prices, essentially severing the linkage between geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, and oil price and equities.

This additional supply could, of course, end up undermining itself. A point must be reached when the consistently tumbling price ensures that production is no longer viable here, either. On the other hand though, even though many US shale oil producers have far higher costs than conventional rivals, many need to carry on pumping to generate at least some revenue stream to pay off debts and other costs - a sort of Catch-22.

The reasons why airport privatisation has failed to gain any sort of substantial ground in the US has been well documented many times previously. (For a brief synopsis see the related report:

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(continue) http:// centreforaviation.com/analysis/global-airport-finance-andprivatisation-capa-review-2014-the-big-funds-dominatetransactions-202694).

But in the meantime, US airports need to complete at least USD71.3 billion worth of essential infrastructure projects before 2017 and the value of the projects we know of is in the same order though much of this is accounted for by multi-year „master plan‟ led developments at the largest hubs )Chicago, Los Angeles and New York alone account for some over USD15 billion).

The nation is accused by some of its representative organisations of falling progressively behind due to the lack of funds being invested into developing gateways. They also allege the US‟ global competitiveness and economic/job growth are imperilled by collapsing transportation infrastructure.

Essential funding for runways (repairs and new where required) usually comes from the FAA, but for other parts of the airport it must be found from local (municipal/county) resources, from bond issues and sometimes from the airlines where they manage terminals.

As things stand it is difficult to envisage a further worsening of infrastructure renewal activity as a direct result of the falling oil price, even if the US is a primary cause of it. America‟s commercial income is enormously diversified after all. Indeed, that downward price variation is a major determinant of the improved fortunes of the country‟s airlines )American for example projects a USD5 billion saving in 2015), indirectly giving a boost to the airports.

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(continue) Canada‟s east may benefit from the oil price but the west - and its airports - won‟t A similar situation exists in Canada, the world‟s fifth largest producer. Oil extraction and refining is, with logging, one of Canada‟s main industries and responsible for about 8% of GDP. Canada‟s oilfields are mainly in Alberta, including the five major but not yet fully exploited oil sands reserves, where production is estimated by analysts to be profitable at a price of USD30 to USD40 per barrel. Reserves are also found in Saskatchewan and Newfoundland to a lesser degree. The enhanced production there has, together with that in the US, been one of the biggest factors in the falling price globally. A „similar situation‟ also because most of the airports are still mainly within the public sector even if they are no longer administered by Transport Canada, courtesy of not-for-profit stakeholder managed entities.

We are aware of approximately USD8 billion worth of airport construction projects across the country, of which US1.7 billion is allocated to a new runway and terminal expansion at Calgary Airport in Alberta; the city now also becoming one of Canada‟s leading finance centres, possibly soon to rival Toronto.

Canada‟s economy will probably weaken in 2015 as the slump in oil prices cuts exports and investment As with the US, Canada has a much diversified industrial base, but crude oil remains the country‟s largest export and a report by Bloomberg in late Dec-2014 predicted that Canada‟s economy will probably weaken in 2015 as the slump in oil prices cuts exports and investment. GDP growth is expected to fall to below 2% in 1H2015. A reduction in drilling has already led to a decline in support services for mining, oil and gas companies in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

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(continue) In infrastructure terms, including airports, the effects are most likely to be felt in the west and central areas, while the eastern part of the country and particularly Ontario and Quebec should experience a beneficial impact from the falling oil price.

Latin American oil producing nations will soon feel the squeeze In Central and Latin America, Brazil, Venezuela and Mexico are, respectively, the 12th, 9th, and 10th biggest oil producers globally.

Brazil is a major oil consumer, but also a net exporter According to the Brazilian state-owned Petrobras, the oil and natural gas sectorâ€&#x;s contribution to Brazilian GDP increased from 3% in 2000 to 13% in 2014.

Brazil is also the tenth largest consumer of oil products but is a net exporter of oil since 2011. Extraction and distribution is shared amongst 50 companies but Petrobras, previously the monopoly organisation, is the only global oil producer, with output of more than two million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

In addition to the reserves being worked now the offshore Tupi oil field, discovered by Petrobras in 2007, is believed to hold between five and eight billion barrels of recoverable light oil and neighbouring fields may even contain more, which all in all could result in Brazil becoming one of the largest producers of oil in the world.

This is important because another factor in the mix is that Brazil still imports some light oil from the Middle East, because several refineries, built in the 1960s and 1970s, are not suited to process the heavy oil in Brazilian reserves, discovered decades later. (A similar scenario exists in Britain –see below - with regard to the oil quality).

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(continue) Brazil has the world's second largest known oil shale resources On top of all that, Brazil has the world's second largest known oil shale resources (the Irati shale and lacustrine deposits) and has second largest shale oil production after Estonia.

Taking all this evidence into account Brazil would be prone to an immediate adverse effect from the oil price drop were it not for the fact that it is only a minor exporter of crude because of internal consumption. As a result, the effect of the falling oil price on Brazil so far is mixed.

But the longer term consensus appears to be that the oil-price bonanza is over for Latin America generally, and that its oilproducing nations will soon feel the squeeze. Political stability in the region, heavily dependent on the export of commodities, will also suffer from these price swings.

How would that impact on Brazilian airport construction? While some responsibility has been removed from state operator Infraero in the case of the partially privatised airports in Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Brasilia, Belo Horizonte and Natal, that organisation is still responsible for driving forward construction activities and meeting deadlines as majority shareholder.

Furthermore, Brazil has a massive regional airport expansion programme in place covering the construction or refurbishment of 270 airports nationwide and little of that will attract private financing. In Dec-2014, the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) projected a 49.5% increase in airport investments between 2015 and 2018 compared with the preceding three-year period, to BRL16 billion (USD6.2 billion).

With talk of mass protests again over the construction of 2016 Olympic Games facilities while health and education investment suffers, something has to give and the airport programme must be in the frame.

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(continue) The position is worse in Venezuela Venezuela has plans for c. USD700 million of airport investment presently. Venezuela has a similar multi-regional airport modernisation scheme to that of Brazil, albeit on a much smaller scale, and provided for mainly by the public sector. In Venezuela „privatisation‟ in the airport sector at least has usually meant transferring control from central government to local states, although a 20-year operation and expansion contract was put into place at Margarita International Airport in 2004, involving Flughafen Zurich and a local associate. However, it was quickly declared void.

Venezuela‟s economy was severely affected by the economic crisis. The country failed to diversify its oil-dependent economy (40% of its fiscal receipts and 90% of foreign exchange) and thanks to economic mismanagement it was already finding it difficult to pay its way even before the oil price started falling.

Inflation is running at about 60% and the economy is teetering on the brink of recession.

The need for spending cuts is clear, but the government faces difficult choices. Removing the subsidies on petrol prices that cost the government USD12.5 billion a year is not on the agenda.

A petrol price rise in 1989 saw widespread riots that left hundreds dead.

Venezuela has a public debt of around 50% of GDP and a budget deficit of 16%, which puts it in a very vulnerable position. Again, airport investment would seem to be a candidate for the chop. ew Mexico City airport safe(ish) but surface transport links could be at risk Finally, Mexico, where the largest airport project in the region, and one of the largest in the world, is almost under way at Mexico City following years of vacillation.

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(continue) There is some concern in Mexico – the world‟s 10th largest oil producer - about the falling oil price and its impact on infrastructure. Moreover, although Mexico‟s fiscal situation is stronger than Venezuela‟s, it is undergoing a wave of protests and discontent (over, for example, the killing of 43 students and a scandal involving the president and his first lady) that could easily develop into widespread turmoil. Although democratic order itself is not under threat, the government‟s capacity to bring about reforms and maintain order will be severely impaired in the coming year.

In the midst of this dissatisfaction the country has been forced to adjust its budget for 2015 to account for new price assumptions, although the old price assumption of USD82 per barrel of oil was considered conservative by regional standards. government representatives revealed that two surface transport projects including a rail line have been cancelled because of the oil price decline In a webinar on 04-Feb-2015 government representatives revealed that two surface transport projects including a rail line have been cancelled because of the oil price decline. At the same time they saw no reasons – yet – why the new USD9.1 billion Mexico City airport project should be modified. The airport is to be financed 58% from public funds and 42% from the private sector. But it should be noted that – strangely - surface transport links to and from the airport have not yet been agreed upon as the airport, 30 km outside the city, comes under a different jurisdiction. The existing airport is in Mexico City and therefore governed by the city council, while the new one is in the State of Mexico‟s jurisdiction.

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(continue) Given the penchant in Mexico to promote bus travel over rail travel )including the „high speed‟ variety( it would be of little surprise if surface transport schemes to connect with the new airport were axed or at least postponed. The airport itself will surely avoid the axe and even „trimming‟ but private sector firms (and there are many in Mexico, including the ASUR, GAP and OMA multi-airport operators, two of which are listed on various stock exchanges as well as OHL, which is represented at Toluca Airport near Mexico City) may not be as inclined as they might have previously been to commit to it.

There are some Latin American countries that will probably benefit from the oil price drop as they are mostly net importers by some margin. They include Argentina, Bolivia, Chile and Peru.

They will see their industrial production costs decrease and disposable consumer income go up. The benefits for Argentina, however, will be limited, as it is also a relatively large oil producer and does not import much. And its ambitious plans to develop the Vaca Muerta shale field are now at risk, as the breakeven price of producing there is above the current oil price.

There is limited airport investment in Argentina (c. USD500 million) and Bolivia (c. USD300 million), but considerably more in Peru (USD1.7 billion, mainly at Lima‟s Jorge Chavez International Airport while work will commence on the USD658 million Chincero Cusco airport concession in 2Q2015.

Investment in Chile is dominated by the USD700 million management and development contract for the concession of Santiago de Chile Arturo Merino Benítez International Airport, which was recently won by the Nuevo Pudahuel consortium consisting of Aéroports de Paris (45%), VINCI Airports (40%) and Astaldi (15%).

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(continue) Airports servicing the North Sea oil fields are most at risk of reduced investment in Europe This survey ends with a brief consideration of the effects in Europe. As the Top 30 Oil Producing Nations table reveals, Europe is represented by Norway (#15) and the UK #20) although the remainder of the European Union as a whole is placed at #14 (Norway is not a member of the EU).

The United Kingdom is a substantial oil producer, but is now a net importer The UK has a wide and diverse range of businesses but while some, such as textiles and heavy engineering have declined enormously, oil production should not be underestimated. Oil reserves were valued at an estimated GBP250 billion in 2007 and it is estimated there is still 30-40 years of production left (around 24 billion barrels). But those reserves have been declining so that while from the late 1970s to the early 2000s the UK was a major exporter of oil and gas it is now a net importer.

Even so, the oil and gas industries in the UK generate turnover in excess of GBP35 billion per annum (USD53.6 billion) and the industry is the countryâ€&#x;s largest industrial investor. 98% of petroleum is produced from offshore fields, mostly in the North Sea. Typically, a barrel of North Sea crude oil will yield 3% Liquid Petroleum Gas, 25% diesel, 20% kerosene (jet fuel/heating oil), 12% fuel oil (heavy residue for power generation) and just 37% petrol, despite the common belief amongst British drivers that most of it ends up in motor vehicles.

The most likely effect of the falling oil price will be on those airports that service these industries. They lie along the East Coast, from Aberdeen in Scotland down to Norwich in East

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(continue) Anglia. (The recently closed Manston Airport in Kent might also have serviced these industries, along with Southend Airport and the proposed Thames Estuary Airport but they are all south of where the main action is).

Some of these East Coast airports are already having a hard time of it, notably Durham Tees Valley, where passenger traffic declined appreciably again in 2014 from what was already a new low of 159,500, and which is really only sustainable through a regular connection with Amsterdam. Also Humberside, which handles less than 250,000 passengers a year.

It is Aberdeen Airport investment that is likely to be the worst affected however. Around 90% of the UK's oil and gas production and reserves are in the geographic waters around Scotland. The oil and gas sector makes an important contribution to the Scottish economy and was a big factor in the independence debate in 2014. In 2012-13, the output from the Scottish geographic share of the UK oil and gas sector accounted for GBP18.4 billion, 13% of Scottish GDP. BP has already said it is to cut capital investment by USD6 billion (GBP4 billion(, on anticipation of a “new reality” in which the oil price slump is likely to last for several years, varying from USD45-USD60 a barrel and certainly much less than USD100 a barrel. BP is but one of the major oil companies that have collectively pledged to slash more than USD46 billion from their planned capital spending budgets.

Aberdeen, which BP promotes as “the energy capital of Europe,” is the headquarters for its North Sea upstream business, covering offshore operations, terminals and pipelines in both the UK and Norway, employing nearly 4,000 people.

BP reported a USD969 million loss for 4Q2014after taking a USD3.6 billion charge, mostly to reflect the impact of the lower oil price environment.

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(continue) Statoil seeks to shield its big new North Sea field, offering protection to airports on the Norwegian coast Aberdeen and the two main Norwegian coastal cities of Stavanger and Bergen are, like it or not, closely connected by the oil industry. While international companies such as BP are represented there, the big beast of Norwegian oil production is Statoil, headquartered in Stavanger. Statoil, present in 36 countries, is the world's eleventh largest oil and gas company and the twenty-sixth largest company, regardless of industry, by profit in the world. The company has about 23,000 employees.

The government (state) is the largest shareholder with 67% as the companyâ€&#x;s name indicates, with the remainder public stock.

It has 60% of the total production on the Norwegian Shelf.

As this report is written Statoil declared it was braced for a long period of depressed crude prices and set out plans to slash costs and cut investment. It will cut capital expenditure by a tenth this year, reducing exploration, spending on its US shale prospects, and modification of mature fields.

But it is moving ahead with projects already sanctioned and will soon unveil plans for the Johan Sverdrup oil field, which could cost about USD30 billion to develop fully. Johan Sverdrup is located on the Utsira Height in the North Sea, 140 kilometres west of Stavanger. The Plan for Development and Operation is expected to be discussed by the Storting (Norwegian Parliament) during its spring 2015 session. Production start-up is scheduled for end 2019 and it is a 50-year project.

Reading between the lines Statoil would appear to be more likely to make cuts outside of its biggest projects around Norway and this will offer some protection to the considerable investment

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(continue) being made by the state-owned airport operator Avinor (the worldâ€&#x;s 9th biggest by revenues – USD1.6 billion in 2013) in the Bergen and Stavanger airports; also at Oslo, the capital. Bergen and Stavanger airports, together with Trondheim in the centre of the country and also on the coast, are considered so important to Avinor that they comprise three corporate divisions in their own right, along with the fourth, Oslo. The other 42 airports make up the fifth division. Expenditure at Bergen currently totals USD693 million on a new terminal to open in 2017 while USD2.2 billion is allocated also to a new terminal (2) at Oslo.

Avinor intends to invest NOK37 billion (EUR4.9 billion/USD5.5 billion) in the 2014-2023 period In all Avinor intends to invest NOK37 billion (EUR4.9 billion/USD5.5 billion) in the 2014-2023 period - the largest investment made by the company since Oslo Airport was constructed. he only certainty is volatility. Private funding for airports is more likely now There can be no certainty about the direction the oil price will take; if it will quickly rebound or whether there will be a long period of depressed prices which make production barely sustainable in many countries. What is clear is that most of the biggest producers - the BPs and Statoils for example - believe the latter alternative is more likely. On balance, that will be more beneficial than disadvantageous to airlines and their customers and generate more travel, which has a positive impact on airports.

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(continue) It is equally clear that the big investments in airport infrastructure in many countries are often dependent on a flow of funds from what have, hitherto, been profitable state investments in oil production or where private producers have undertaken the extraction and paid for the privilege through taxes and royalties.

Some of these airport investments do now seen to be at risk and even where infrastructure spending is modest some projects will, at least, be suspended. this set of circumstances may be the push in the direction of airport privatisation Ironically, this set of circumstances may be the push in the direction of airport privatisation, or further push where it already exists, that is required in some countries. Variations on the word „private‟ appear 23 times in this report but the acronym PPP (public-private-partnership) surprisingly only twice; in respect of Nigeria and Oman.

But as CAPA revealed in the related report http://centreforaviation.com/analysis/ppps-could-reinvigorate-usairport-privatisation-191920 airport PPPs are becoming increasingly popular globally and especially so where there is a „pipeline‟ of opportunities for potential private sector investors/operators rather than just random individual ones.

In many of the countries in this report - for example Oman, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran and Iraq (political developments permitting), Russia (ditto), Nigeria, the US etc – that is the case.

There is no doubt there are opportunities to be exploited that will reduce the burden on challenged states - but the private sector will only come to the rescue if it is sure the public one can also play its part; in this new paradigm of ultra low oil prices that may become a more palatable option.

‫ادارة العالقاث العاهت ‪ -‬الشركت القابضت‬ ‫لوصر للطيراى‬