Forecast 2017 2027

Forecast of food, farming and fertilizer use in the European Union

2017-2027 SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE IN EUROPE

SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE IN EUROPE

Nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium are the three primary nutrients for plant growth Nitrogen ➤

(N), captured from the air, is essential as an important component of proteins.

Phosphorus ➤

(P), primarily extracted from mined ores, is a component of nucleic acids and lipids, and is a key to energy transfer.

➤

Potassium (K), extracted from mined ores, has an important role in plant metabolism, for photosynthesis, activation of enzymes, osmoregulation, etc.

The nutrients are transformed from naturally occurring raw materials into more plant-available forms by industrial processing and supplied as mineral fertilizers. In this report, the nutrients are expressed as follows: nitrogen as a pure element, phosphorus as the phosphate equivalent (P2O5) and potassium as the potash equivalent (K2O).

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Contents Fertilizer consumption in the European Union 5 Agricultural land use in the European Union 7 Changes in European farming and food crops 9 Changes in fertilizer use by crop 11 Changes in regional fertilizer use 13 Agriculture and air quality

Fertilizer Europe’s annual forecast of food farming and fertilizer use in the European Union has been independently recognized1 as one of the most trusted inputs into the development of agricultural policy in Europe. Its data is regularly used by many international organizations including the European Commission (DG Agri, DG Environment and DG Energy), the FAO, the European Environment Agency (EEA) and the International Fertilizer Producer Association (IFA).

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How the forecast is made 17

1

Exploring land use trends in Europe: a comparison of forecasting approaches and results: H. van Delden, et al. iEMSs International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software 2012, Leipzig, Germany.  

Infinite fertilizers 18

FORECAST OF FOOD, FARMING AND FERTILIZER USE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION 2017-2027

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SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE IN EUROPE

Changes in annual fertilizer consumption in Europe by 2027:

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- 0.2%

in nitrogen consumption, compared to -5.0% foreseen last year.

+ 5.8%

in phosphate consumption, against +0.7% last year.

+ 6.0%

in potash consumption, against +1.8% forecast last year.

Fertilizer consumption in the European Union 16 1416 16

Million tonnes (Mt) Million tonnes Million tonnes(Mt) (Mt)

1214 14

12 10 12

-0.2%

10

10 8

68 6

4

8 6

44

+5.8% +6.0%

2

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Nitrogen Phosphate Potash Nitrogen Phosphate Nitrogen Phosphate

3

20 2 20 5 25

20 2 20 0 20

20 1 20 5 15

20 1 20 0 10

20 0 20 5 05

20 20 00 00

19 19 95 95

19 19 90 90

19 19 80 80

00

19 19 85 85

0

3

Potash Potash

O

 ver the year, fertilizers containing an average* of 11.2 million tons of nitrogen, 2.6 million tons of phosphate, and 2.9 million tons of potash were applied to 134.5 million hectares of farmland. 44.4 million farmable hectares were not fertilized.

Consideration of the economic outlook and the anticipated evolution of Europe’s cropping area has led Fertilizers Europe to expect annual nitrogen, phosphate and potash fertilizer consumption to reach 11.1, 2.7 and 3.1

FORECAST OF FOOD, FARMING AND FERTILIZER USE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION 2017-2027

million tons respectively by the 2026/2027 season, applied to 134.0 million hectares of farmland.

Annual fertilizer consumption over the next 10 years will continue to remain below the levels recorded immediately prior to the 2008/2009 economic downturn. * Average based on the last three growing seasons - 2014/2015, 2015/2016, 2016/2017.

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SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE IN EUROPE

Arable crops account for

60% of the fertilized area in Western Europe and 86% Central and Eastern European countries.

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Agricultural land use in the European Union Idle land 6% Wheat 15%

Grassland: non-fertilized 19%

Coarse grains 17%

Potatoes 1% Sugar beet 1%

Grassland: fertilized 18% Permanent crops (fruit, vineyard, forest) 6%

T

Fodder crops 7%

Other crops 4%

 he fertilized area in countries of the European Union comprises 134.5 million hectares. A further 44.4 million farmable hectares are not fertilized, of which 34.4 million are unfertilized grassland and 10.0 million idle or set-aside land.

Within the fertilized area, arable crops account for 68% (43% cereals, 9% oilseeds, 9% fodder crops). Permanent crops account for 8% of the area and grassland for a further 24%. The unfertilized area is evenly spread across the countries of the European Union but there are significant differences in fertilized crop areas between the

Oilseeds 6%

countries of Western, and Central and Eastern Europe.

In Western Europe (EU-15), the fertilized area comprises 60% arable crops (37% cereals, 6% oilseeds, 9% fodder crops), 10% permanent crops (vineyards, orchards, forests) and 30% fertilized grassland. Agriculture in Central and Eastern Europe (EU-13), however, is far more directed towards arable production, which accounts for 86% of the fertilized area (56% cereals, 14% oilseeds, 9% fodder crops), with permanent crops and fertilized grassland only comprising 3% and 11% of the fertilized area respectively.

FORECAST OF FOOD, FARMING AND FERTILIZER USE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION 2017-2027

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SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE IN EUROPE

The grain sector (wheat, coarse

grains and oilseeds) accounts for 61% of total nutrient consumption, with wheat accounting for 26%.

Fodder crops and grassland

account for a further 22%.

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Changes in farming and food crops 2017-2027 15

10 90

8 75 10

Percent (%)

6 60

4 455 2

30 00 15

-2

0 -5

-4

-15

-6

-10 -30

Wheat

Barley

Rye, oats

Grain

Potatoes

Sugar

Oilseed

-2 Au 7 lg iu str m ia + Bu Lux lg ar Cz ia C ec h ypr Re us pu D bli en c m a Es rk to n Fi ia nl an Fr d a G nc er e m a G ny re H ece un ga Ire ry la nd Ita l La y t Li vi N thu a et an he ia rla nd Po s l Po and rtu Ro ga m l a Sl nia ov a Sl kia ov en ia Sp Un a ite Sw in d ed Ki en ng do m

Wheat Barley Rye, Grain Potato beet Sugar rape Oilseed riceoats maize rice maize beet rape

Be

EU

-8

Crop area (ha)

Yield (t/ha)

Nitrogen

T 

Phosphate

he anticipated cropping pattern in the European Union over the next 10 years will see a decrease (-0.6%) in the agricultural area devoted to cereals. This decrease, however, will be compensated compensated by an overall increase in crop yield of 5%.

Compared to last year, the decrease of cropping area for potatoes is smaller (-1.6%) and still compensated by a slight

Potash

increase in yield (2%). The biggest changes are foreseen for sugar beet where the area is forecast to increase by 8.2%, with an expected 7% yield increase and for oilseed rape where the cropping area is expected to decrease by 5.2%, with a forecast growth in yield of (only) 4%.

FORECAST OF FOOD, FARMING AND FERTILIZER USE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION 2017-2027

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SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE IN EUROPE

Over the next ten years, nutrient consumption (N+P+K) for agriculture will increase by 3%.

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Changes in fertilizer use by crop 2017-2027 90 15

25

75 20

10 5

45

0 30 15 -5 0

-10

15 10 5 0

-15 -5

-15

-30 -10

-20

Wheat

Coarse

Potatoes

Sugar Sugar beet

Oilseeds

Fodder

Grassland

EU Be A -27 lg us iu t m ria + Bu Lux lg ar Cz i ec Cy a pr h Re us pu D bli en c m a Es rk to n Fi ia nl an Fr d a G nc er e m a G ny re H ece un ga Ire ry la nd Ita l La y Li tvi N thu a et an he ia rla nd Po s l Po and rtu Ro ga m l a Sl nia ov a Sl kia ov en ia Sp Un a ite Sw in e d Ki den ng do m

Percent (%)

60

Wheat

Coarse grains Potato grains Nitrogen

A 

Oilseeds crops Fodder beet crops

Phosphate Nitrogen

Potash Phosphate

s the forecasted yield increases are on a positive trends for all major crops (for example cereals +5% compared to +3% forecasted last year), the nutrient consumption (N+P+K) is expected to slightly increase (+1.8%).

Except for potato where a decrease of 5% is forecasted, nutrient consumption will increase in all crops with for instance +6% for sugar beet and +4% for cereals.

Grassland

Potash

In fodder crops, the decrease foreseen in the last years as an impact of the abolition of milk quotas, which should induce a trend towards greater productivity, is now stabilized and a small recovery of +1% is expected. At the same time, the decrease for grassland is now foreseen at around -3%.

FORECAST OF FOOD, FARMING AND FERTILIZER USE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION 2017-2027

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SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE IN EUROPE

For a second year, Germany is foreseen to have the highest decrease in consumption of all three nutrients mainly because of a tightening of the rules for the use of fertilizers in there.

Most Central and Eastern European countries (EU-12) showed a trend for higher nutrient consumption.

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Changes in regional fertilizer use 2017-2027 90

75

75 60

20

45 45

15

30 30 15 15 00

10 5

-15

0

-30

-5

-15 -30

EU EU B-e2 A -27 Be Au l7gi us lgi str um tria um ia + + Lu Bu Lux Bu x lg ar Clgar i Cr zeica Cyp a oa h tia Re rus Cz C pu ec yp b h r D u Re s e lic nm pu De blic E ark st nm on ar Es k Fin ia to la n n Fin ia F d r lan G an c Fr d erm e an Ge ce G any rm r an H eec y Gr un e ee g Hu ce I ary r ng el an ar y d Ire lan Ita d ly La Ita ly L tvi La N ithu a Lit tviaeth ani er a Ne hua la nd th nia er s P lan ol ds P an Po d lan ortu d Po Ro ga rtu m l a Ro gal Sl nia m o an v Slo ia S aki lo a va ve Slo kia ni a ve Sp ni U a a Snpit Sw in ed e a Un S in K de ite we i n de ngd d Ki n o ng m do m

Percent (%)

60

25

-45

-10

Wheat

Coarse grains

Potatoes

Sugar beet

Nitrogen

Nitrogen

T 

Oilseeds

Phosphate

Phosphate

he evolution of nitrogen use by country is similar to last year.

Increased consumption is foreseen in most Central and Eastern European countries (EU-12), while significant decreases are foreseen in the Western European countries, with the highest decreases in Germany, The Netherlands, France, Austria and Belgium.

For nitrogen, the average growth in consumption in Central and Eastern European countries reached 14.4 % (comparable to the last forecast). For Western countries, the expected decrease of -5.7% is more similar to the forecast of 2 years ago (-4.9%) and is still driven by an expected increased pressure on the use of fertilizers in Germany.

Fodder crops

Grassland

Potash

Potash

For phosphate and potash, significant growth is reported in almost all Central and Eastern European countries, as well as in Austria, Belgium/Luxembourg, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Sweden contributing to the recovery (+5.8% and +6.0%) foreseen for these nutrients in the European Union over the next 10 years.

However, after several years of relatively solid growth, it looks as if the fertilizer market is now slowing down, especially for nitrogen. With lower commodity prices and the Russian embargo, European farmers are still feeling the pressure. Consequently, they have become more cautious in their spending, even on essential inputs like fertilizers.

FORECAST OF FOOD, FARMING AND FERTILIZER USE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION 2017-2027

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SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE IN EUROPE

Pollutants covered by EU National Emission Ceilings legislation and 2030 targets: SO2 Sulphur dioxide

NOx

-79%

Nitrogen oxide

-63%

PM 2.5 Fine particulate matter

NMVOC

-49%

Volatile organic compounds

-40%

NH3 Ammonia

-19% Sources: European Commission 2017, http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/reduction/index.htm

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Agriculture and air quality: reducing ammonia emissions Agriculture and air quality:

Towards the implementation of the NEC Directive The revised National Emissions Ceilings (NEC) Directive (Directive (EU) 2016/2284) has recently been adopted by the EU. It sets 2020 and 2030 emission reduction commitments for sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxide (NOx), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), ammonia (NH3) and particulate matter (PM2.5). The reduction commitments agreed for 2030, which are very ambitious for a number of EU countries, have been formulated

by European decision-makers with the intention to reduce the health impacts of air pollution by around half compared with 2005. Furthermore, the Directive requires EU countries to draw up National Air Pollution Control Programs in order to ensure that the reductions are achieved. The NEC Directive foresees that the EU will have to reduce its total NH3 emissions by 19% for all years from 2030 onwards (compared to 2005).

The challenge of minimizing ammonia emissions in the agriculture sector In October 2017, the European Environment Agency (EAA) published its latest air quality report. The main conclusion of the this report is that all economic sectors will need to contribute to the effective implementation of the policy, including those such as agriculture, which has reduced less than other sectors in the past. In fact, air pollution has several important environmental impacts and may directly affect vegetation and fauna, as well as

Did you know?

Agriculture is mainly a source of ammonia emissions.

A workable balance must be found between the viability of farming and the contribution to improvements of air quality in Europe.

94% of ammonia emissions come from agriculture: 80% from manure and 20% from mineral fertilizers, mainly urea.

Ammonia emissions decreased by -7% between 2000 and 2015 in the EU-28 but increased the last 2 years (+ 1.7 % from 2014 to 2015).

the quality of water and soil including the ecosystem services they support. For example, nitrogen oxides (NOx, the sum of nitrogen monoxide (NO) and NO2) and NH3 emissions disrupt terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems by introducing excessive amounts of nutrient nitrogen, leading to eutrophication.

FORECAST OF FOOD, FARMING AND FERTILIZER USE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION 2017-2027

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SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE IN EUROPE

Air pollution also negatively impacts the farming sector as groundlevel O3 damages agricultural crops, forests and plants by reducing their growth rates.

Solutions for reconciling food production and control of ammonia emissions European farms play a crucial role in providing healthy, highquality food for all European consumers, and beyond. However, the agricultural sector is also EU’s main source of ammonia emissions due to manure and mineral fertilizers. The UNECE Framework Code for Good Agricultural Practice for Reducing Ammonia Emissions for instance lists a number of measures, ranging from livestock manure management to use of mineral fertilizers or livestock feeding strategies. As far as mineral fertilizers are concerned, the NEC Directive suggests several options. The first and most obvious option is to replace urea-based fertilizers with ammonium-nitratebased fertilizers. This is also recommended by the UNECE Task Force on Reactive Nitrogen. Ammonia emissions can also be reduced by treating urea-based fertilizers with urease inhibitors.

The agricultural sector can make a significant contribution to EU’s air quality efforts. Nevertheless, care must be taken to balance air pollution and climate mitigation with the potential impacts, particularly on farm economy and food production, and to optimise the different environmental and economic co-benefits of mitigation efforts.

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Furthermore, a large number of projects and studies have identified various measures to mitigate emissions of air pollutants from the agriculture sector. As one selected example, the EU LIFE+ project ‘AgriClimateChange’ (2013) identified a number of different measures: Agronomic measures - including: (i) nitrogen balance at farm level; (ii) introduction of leguminous plants on arable land to improve fertility and increase carbon sequestration; (iii) conservation of agriculture based on no-tillage methods to increase carbon sequestration; (iv) implementation of cover crops to restore fertility and reduce the need to use nitrogen fertilizers.

Livestock measures - including: (i) manure storage covering; (ii) manure spreading closer to the ground; and (iii) use of manure and farm residues to feed biogas plants.

Agri-environmental measures - such as maintaining and encouraging farms to develop low-carbon farming practices based on farmers’ skills and interests.

Sources: European Commission website on Clean Air (http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/index_en.htm) European Environment Agency (EAA), 2017, Air quality in Europe — 2017 report, 74 pp AgriClimateChange, 2013, Combating climate change through farming: application of a common evaluation system in the 4 largest agricultural economies of the EU, LIFE09 ENV/ES/000441

How the forecast is made F

ertilizers Europe’s forecast is an annual exercise that uses the following procedure:

➤ at the end of each growing season, a general European scenario is established, based on quantitative information (from the FAO-OECD, USDA, FAPRI and the European Commission) and a qualitative analysis made by Fertilizers Europe experts; the general scenario is then adapted to the specificities ➤ of each country and national forecasts made; the national forecasts are then analysed and discussed ➤ by all the experts; when the market and economic situation require it, the ➤ forecasters carry out a last update of the current situation before integration and publication.

The forecast is an upward crop-based procedure where fertilizer consumption is evaluated by assessing the evolution of the cropping area and the nutrient application rates for each crop.

However, two different methodologies are used to achieve this crop-based procedure:

➤ In Croatia, Cyprus and Latvia, evaluation of the crop area and production as well as application rates used for N, P and K nutrients on each crop is based on a combination of data taken out of the IFA-FAO database, European Commission,etc. When precise figures are not available, the evaluation is based on an agronomic model developed by the group of forecasters, for both the current value and the 10 year forecast value. ➤ Malta is currently not covered in the forecast.

REFERENCE VOLUMES The reference volumes used to calculate the percentage changes in fertilizer demand are based on the average value of the last three growing seasons (for the current exercise: 2014/2015, 2015/2016 and 2016/2017). This mitigates the extent to which exceptional years (positive or negative) may impact the calculated evolution of demand.

➤ In the majority of European Union countries, representing 98.4% of its agricultural area and fertilizer consumption, the forecast is an expert-based approach constructed from national forecasts generated by Fertilizers Europe’s members.

FORECAST OF FOOD, FARMING AND FERTILIZER USE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION 2017-2027

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INFINITE FERTILIZERS Continuing to feed the world

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ertilizers are integral to modern agriculture - they provide farmers with the means to meet increasing global food and energy needs. The European fertilizer industry is committed to the development and production of innovative products, application and recycling techniques to maximize the productivity and the

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sustainability of European agriculture. Following the fertilizer loop, it combines active product stewardship and close collaboration with the farming community with increasing interaction along the entire food chain to maximize nutrient-use efficiency and reduce the environmental footprint of food production.

Available publications Fertilizers Europe has developed a variety of publications, each corresponding to the product stewardship and nutrient stewardship side of Infinite Fertilizers. Should you be interested in obtaining any of these publications, please contact the secretariat of Fertilizers Europe.

Infinite product stewardship

Infinite nutrient stewardship

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INFINITE FERTILIZERS Continuing to feed the world

FORECAST OF FOOD, FARMING AND FERTILIZER USE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION 2017-2027

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INFINITE FERTILIZERS Continuing to feed the world

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INFINITE FERTILIZERS Continuing to feed the world

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INFINITE FERTILIZERS Continuing to feed the world

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Fertilizers Europe asbl Avenue E. Van Nieuwenhuyse 4/6 B-1160, Brussels, Belgium Tel: +32 2 675 3550 Fax: +32 2 675 3961 agriculture@fertilizerseurope.com

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