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Monitoring the CAP The role of indicators Monitoring tools to feed and preserve the planet 10 September 2015 Fertilizers Europe Expo Milano event

Tassos Haniotis Director Economic analysis, perspectives and evaluations; communication DG Agriculture and Rural Development European Commission

Annual real commodity price indexes (2010 = 100) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20

Agriculture

Fertilizers

Source: World Bank

2

Energy

Metals & minerals

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

1964

1962

1960

0

Monthly nominal commodity price indexes (2010 = 100) 300

250

200

150

100

50

Agriculture

Fertilizers

Energy

Source: World Bank

3

Metals and minerals

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

0

300

0 2006M01 2006M04 2006M07 2006M10 2007M01 2007M04 2007M07 2007M10 2008M01 2008M04 2008M07 2008M10 2009M01 2009M04 2009M07 2009M10 2010M01 2010M04 2010M07 2010M10 2011M01 2011M04 2011M07 2011M10 2012M01 2012M04 2012M07 2012M10 2013M01 2013M04 2013M07 2013M10 2014M01 2014M04 2014M07 2014M10 2015M01 2015M04 2015M07

FAO real food price indices

(2002-04=100)

250

200

150

100

50

Dairy Cereals

4

Food

CAP reform path and CAP budget, 1980-2020 billion EUR (current prices) 0,8%

80

EU-10

EU-12

70

EU-15 actual expenditure 1980-2014

EU-25

EU-27

EU-28 outlook 2015-2020

0,7% 0,6%

50

0,5%

40

0,4%

30

0,3%

20

0,2%

10

0,1%

0

0,0%

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

60

Export subsidies Coupled support green payments CAP as share of EU GDP

Other market measures Decoupled support Other rural development

Source: DG AGRI.

5

Market expenditure Direct payments agro-environmental measures

The new "greening" architecture of the CAP

Cumulative environmental benefits

Implementation mechanism

Rural development

Green direct payments Cross compliance Agricultural area (eligible for direct payments)

6

Voluntary with compensation for cost incurred and income forgone Mandatory with financial support (decoupled “green� payment per hectare) Regulatory (Statutory Management Requirements and Good Agricultural Environmental Conditions)

Purpose of Monitoring & Evaluation

 measure the performance of the CAP  assess contribution of CAP to broader EU objectives  necessary requirement for every policy using EU budget  opportunity for CAP to ensure its credibility

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Key concepts of Monitoring & Evaluation

 Monitoring  continuous process generating data on implementation (not impacts)

 Evaluation  judges interventions according to results, impacts, needs

 Indicators  aggregate data to allow quantification (& simplification) of phenomena

 Intervention logic  systematic description of link between actions and objectives

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CAP intervention logic CAP general objectives

Viable food production

Sustainable management of natural resources and climate action

Balanced territorial development

CSF* thematic objectives

CAP specific objectives

Enhance farm income Maintain market stability

Improve agricultural competitiveness

Meet consumer expectations

Foster innovation

Maintain diverse agriculture across the EU

Pillar I specific objectives

Provide environmental public goods

Pursue climate change mitigation and adaptation

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Promote socioeconomic development of rural areas

Pillar II priorities

*CSF: Common Strategic Framework including the EFRD, ESF, CF, EAFRD and EMFF

CAP M&E indicators

Context indicators CAP general objectives

Impact indicators

CAP specific objectives (Pillar I specific objectives, Pillar II priorities)

Result indicators

Pillar I instruments & Pillar II measures

Output indicators

Situation & trends

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A common set of impact indicators •

General objective: Viable food production

•

6 Agricultural trade balance

•

General objective :Sustainable management of natural resources & climate action

•

13 Soil erosion

•

General objective : Balanced territorial development

• • • • •

• • • • • •

• • •

1 2 3 4 5

Agricultural entrepreneurial income Agricultural factor income Agricultural productivity EU commodity price variability Consumer price evolution of food products

7 Emissions from agriculture 8 Farmland birds index 9 HNV Farming 10 Water abstraction in agriculture 11Water quality 12 Soil quality

14 Rural employment rate 15 Degree of rural poverty 16 Rural GDP per capita

CAP Monitoring and Evaluation Indicators and data available at: http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cap-indicators/index_en.htm

Thank you for your attention!

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