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“The Knowledge isafascinatinglookatthebasicprinciplesofthemost importanttechnologiesundergirdingmodernsociety....Afunreadfullof optimismabouthumaningenuity.”
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“The Knowledge iskintothe‘waythingswork’booksoftheartist-writer DavidMacauley,showinghowcomplexthemakingsofcivilization the engines,theinfrastructure,allthethingswetakeforgranted reallyare.... [It]willproveavaluableowner’sguideforadifficultbutnotimpossible future.”
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“Thisbookisanextraordinaryachievement.Withlucidityandbrevity,Dartnell explainstherudimentsofacivilization.Itisagreatreadevenifcivilization doesnotcollapse.Ifitdoes,itwillbethesacredtextofthenewworld Dartnellthatworld’sfirstgreatprophet.”
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“The Knowledge ispremisedonaningenioussleightofhand.Ostensiblya manualonrebuildingourtechnologicallife-supportsystemafteraglobal catastrophe,itisactuallyagloriouscompendiumoftheknowledgewehave lostintheliving;theoriginsofthematerialfabricofouractual,unapocalyptic lives....ThemostinspiringbookI’vereadinalongtime.”
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“The Knowledge isaterrificallyengrossinghistoryofscienceand technology....Acunninglypackagedyetentertaininglyseriousessayinthe historyofpracticalideas.”
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“Awhirlwindtourofthehistoryofhumanendeavorintermsofscientificand technologicaldiscovery....Readerswillcertainlycomeawaybetterinformed, moreknowledgeableabout,andhopefullymoreinterestedinthefundamental scienceandtechnologynecessarytorebuildacivilizedsociety.”
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“Ahymntohumaningenuity,chartinghowwehavetakencontroloftheplanet, engineeredsolutionstothemanyproblemsthatplaguedusaswedeveloped modernsocieties,andlearnedtobeatourmicrobialassailantstoliveever longerlives.Yetitismorethanthat.Itisamanualforrebuildingsocietyinthe faceofcollapse”
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“Amarvelouslyastoundingwork:Inonegracefulswoop,LewisDartnelltakes ourmultilayered,interconnectedmodernworld,showshowfragileits scaffoldingis,andthenlaysoutahow-toguideforstartingoverfromscratch. Imagine Zombieland toldbyNeildeGrasseTysonandyou’llgetsomesenseof whatadelight The Knowledge istoread.”
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Intrusion and Descent
ABOUTTHEAUTHOR
Dr.LewisDartnellisaUKSpaceAgencyresearchfellowattheUniversity ofLeicesterandwritesregularlyfor New Scientist, BBC Focus, BBC Sky at Night,and Cosmos,aswellasfornewspapersincludingthe(London) Times,the Guardian,andthe New York Times.Hehaswonseveralawards, includingtheDailyTelegraphYoungScienceWriterAward Healsomakes regularTVappearancesandhasbeenfeaturedon BBC Horizon, Stargazing Live, Sky at Night,andnumeroustimesontheDiscoveryandScience channels.Hisscientificresearchisinthefieldofastrobiology,focusingon howmicroorganismsmightsurviveonthesurfaceofMarsandthebest waystodetectsignsofancientMartianlife.
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Copyright©2014byLewisDartnell
Penguinsupportscopyright Copyrightfuelscreativity,encouragesdiversevoices,promotesfreespeech,andcreatesavibrantculture Thankyouforbuyinganauthorizededitionofthisbookandforcomplyingwithcopyrightlawsbynotreproducing,scanning,or distributinganypartofitinanyformwithoutpermission YouaresupportingwritersandallowingPenguintocontinuetopublish booksforeveryreader
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1 Technology Popularworks 2 Discoveriesinscience Popularworks 3 Survival Popularworks 4 Knowledge,Theoryof Popularworks I Title
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Theinformationcontainedinthisbookcannotreplacesoundjudgmentandgooddecisionmaking,whichcanhelpreducerisk exposure,nordoesthescopeofthisbookallowfordisclosureofallthepotentialhazardsandrisksinvolved Theauthorandpublisher arenotresponsiblefortheinstructionsandinformation,asthesearenotintendedforuseexceptintheeventofmassdisasters,when thecustomarywaysofdoingthingsarenotpossible Version_2
To my wife, Vicky.
Thank you for saying yes.
PRAISEFOR The Knowledge ABOUTTHEAUTHOR TITLEPAGE
COPYRIGHT DEDICATION
EPIGRAPH
INTRODUCTION
1:THEENDOFTHEWORLDASWEKNOWIT
2:THEGRACEPERIOD
3:AGRICULTURE
4:FOODANDCLOTHING
5:SUBSTANCES
6:MATERIALS
7:MEDICINE
8:POWERTOTHEPEOPLE
9:TRANSPORT
10:COMMUNICATION
11:ADVANCEDCHEMISTRY
12:TIMEANDPLACE
13:THEGREATESTINVENTION
FINALE
FURTHERREADINGANDREFERENCES
BIBLIOGRAPHY
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
INDEX
CREDITS
INTRODUCTION
THEWORLDASWEKNOWITHASENDED.
Aparticularlyvirulentstrainofavianflufinallybreachedthespecies barrierandhoppedsuccessfullytohumanhosts,orwasdeliberatelyreleased inanactofbioterrorism.Thecontagionspreaddevastatinglyquicklyinthe modernageofhigh-densitycitiesandintercontinentalairtravel,andkilleda largeproportionoftheglobalpopulationbeforeanyeffectiveimmunization orevenquarantineorderscouldbeimplemented.
OrtensionsbetweenIndiaandPakistanreachedthebreakingpointanda borderdisputeescalatedbeyondallrationallimits,culminatingintheuseof nuclearweapons.Thewarheads’distinctiveelectromagneticpulseswere detectedbydefensesurveillanceinChinaandtriggeredaroundofpreemptive launchesagainsttheUnitedStates,whichinturnspurredretaliatorystrikesby AmericaanditsalliesinEuropeandIsrael.Majorcitiesworldwidewere reducedtojaggedplainsofradioactiveglass.Theenormousvolumesofdust andashinjectedintotheatmospherereducedtheamountofsunlightreaching theground,causingadecades-longnuclearwinter,thecollapseofagriculture, andglobalfamine.
Ortheeventwasentirelybeyondhumancontrol.Arockyasteroid,only aroundamileacross,slammedintotheEarthandfatallychangedatmospheric conditions.Peoplewithinafewhundredkilometersofgroundzerowere dispatchedinaninstantbytheblastwaveofintenseheatandpressure,and fromthatpointonmostoftherestofhumanitywaslivingonborrowedtime. Itdidn’treallymatterwhichnationwasstruck:therockanddusthurledup highintotheatmosphere aswellasthesmokeproducedbywidespreadfires ignitedbytheheatblast dispersedonthewindstosmothertheentireplanet. Asinanuclearwinter,globaltemperaturesdroppedenoughtocause worldwidecropfailuresandmassivefamine.
Thisisthestuffofsomanynovelsandfilmsfeaturingpost-apocalyptic worlds Theimmediateaftermathisoften asin Mad Max orCormac McCarthy’snovel The Road portrayedasbarrenandviolent.Rovingbands ofscavengershoardtheremainingfoodandpreyruthlesslyonthoselesswell organizedorarmed.Isuspectthat,atleastforaperiodaftertheinitialshock
ofcollapse,thismightnotbetoofarfromthetruth.I’manoptimist,though:I thinkmoralityandrationalitywouldultimatelyprevail,andsettlementand rebuildingbegin.
Theworldasweknowithasended.Thecrucialquestionis:nowwhat? Oncethesurvivorshavecometotermswiththeirpredicament the collapseoftheentireinfrastructurethatpreviouslysupportedtheirlives whatcantheydotorisefromtheashestoensuretheythriveinthelongterm? Whatcrucialknowledgewouldtheyneedtorecoverasrapidlyaspossible?
Thisisasurvivors’guidebook.Notonejustconcernedwithkeeping peoplealiveintheweeksaftertheFall plentyofhandbookshavebeen writtenonsurvivalskills butonethatteacheshowtoorchestratethe rebuildingofatechnologicallyadvancedcivilization.Ifyousuddenlyfound yourselfwithoutaworkingexample,couldyouexplainhowtobuildan internalcombustionengine,oraclock,oramicroscope?Or,evenmorebasic, howtosuccessfullycultivatecropsandmakeclothes?Theapocalyptic scenariosI’mpresentingherearealsothestartingpointforathought experiment:theyareavehicleforexaminingthefundamentalsofscienceand technology,which,asknowledgebecomesevermorespecialized,feelvery remotetomostofus.
Peoplelivingindevelopednationshavebecomedisconnectedfromthe everydayprocessesofcivilizationthatsupportthem Individually,weare astoundinglyignorantofeventhebasicsoftheproductionoffood,shelter, clothes,medicine,materials,orvitalsubstances.Oursurvivalskillshave atrophiedtothepointthatmuchofhumanitywouldbeincapableofsustaining itselfifthelife-supportsystemofmoderncivilizationfailed,iffoodnolonger magicallyappearedonstoreshelves,orclothesonhangers.Ofcourse,there wasatimewheneveryonewasasurvivalist,withafarmoreintimate connectiontothelandandmethodsofproduction,andtosurviveinapostapocalypticworldyou’dneedtoturnbacktheclockandrelearnthesecore skills.*
What’smore,eachpieceofmoderntechnologywetakeforgranted requiresanenormoussupportnetworkofothertechnologies.There’smuch moretomakinganiPhonethanknowingthedesignandmaterialsofeachof itscomponents Thedevicesitsasthecapstoneontheverytipofavast pyramidofenablingtechnologies:theminingandrefiningoftherareelement indiumforthetouchscreen,high-precisionphotolithographicmanufacturing ofmicroscopiccircuitryinthecomputingprocessorchips,andtheincredibly miniaturizedcomponentsinthemicrophone,nottomentionthenetworkof cellphonetowersandotherinfrastructurenecessarytomaintain telecommunicationsandthefunctioningofthephone.Thefirstgeneration bornaftertheFallwouldfindtheinternalmechanismsofamodernphone absolutelyinscrutable,thepathwaysofitsmicrochipcircuitsinvisiblysmall
tothehumaneyeandtheirpurposeutterlymysterious.Thesci-fiauthor ArthurC.Clarkesaidin1961thatanysufficientlyadvancedtechnologyis indistinguishablefrommagic.IntheaftermathoftheFall,therubisthatthis miraculoustechnologywouldhavebelongednottosomestar-faringalien species,buttopeoplejustagenerationinourownpast.
Evenquotidianartifactsofourcivilizationthataren’tparticularlyhightechstillrequireadiversityofrawmaterialsthatmustbeminedorotherwise gathered,processedinspecializedplants,andassembledinamanufacturing facility.Andallofthisinturnreliesonelectricalpowerstationsandtransport overgreatdistances.ThispointismadeveryeloquentlyinLeonardE.Read’s 1958essaywrittenfromtheperspectiveofoneofourmostbasictools,“I, Pencil.”Theastoundingconclusionisthatbecausethesourcingofraw materialsandthemethodsofproductionaresodispersed,thereisnotasingle persononthefaceoftheEarthwhoknowshowtomakeeventhissimplestof implements.
Apotentdemonstrationofthegulfthatnowseparatesourindividual capabilitiesandtheproductionofevensimplegizmosinoureverydaylife wasofferedbyThomasThwaiteswhen,in2008,heattemptedtomakea toasterfromscratchwhilestudyingforhisMAattheRoyalCollegeofArt. Hereverse-engineeredacheaptoasterdowntoitsbarestessentials iron frame,mica-mineralinsulatingsheets,nickelheatingfilaments,copperwires andplug,andplasticcasing andthensourcedalltherawmaterialshimself, diggingthemoutofthegroundinquarriesandmines.Healsolookedup simpler,historicalmetallurgicaltechniques,referringtoasixteenth-century texttobuildarudimentaryiron-smeltingfurnaceusingametaltrashcan, barbecuecoals,andaleafblowerforbellows.Thefinishedmodelis satisfyinglyprimitivebutalsogrotesquelybeautifulinitsownrightand neatlyunderscoresthecoreofourproblem.
Ofcourse,eveninoneoftheextremedoomsdayscenarios,groupsof survivorswouldnotneedtobecomeself-sufficientimmediately.Ifthegreat majorityofthepopulationsuccumbedtoanaggressivevirus,therewouldstill bevastresourcesleftbehind.Thesupermarketswouldremainstockedwith plentifulfood,andyoucouldpickupafinenewsetofdesignerclothesfrom thedeserteddepartmentstoresorliberatefromtheshowroomthesportscar you’vealwaysdreamedabout.Findanabandonedmansion,andwithalittle foragingitwouldn’tbetoohardtosalvagesomemobiledieselgeneratorsto keepthelighting,heating,andappliancesrunning.Undergroundlakesoffuel remainbeneathgasstations,sufficienttokeepyournewhomeandcar functioningforasignificantperiod Infact,smallgroupsofsurvivorscould probablyliveprettycomfortablyintheimmediateaftermathoftheFall.Fora while,civilizationcouldcoastonitsownmomentum.Thesurvivorswould
findthemselvessurroundedbyawealthofresourcesthereforthetaking:a bountifulGardenofEden.
ButtheGardenisrotting.
Food,clothes,medicines,machinery,andothertechnologyinexorably decompose,decay,deteriorate,anddegradeovertime.Thesurvivorsare providedwithnothingmorethanagraceperiod Withthecollapseof civilizationandthesuddenarrestofkeyprocesses gatheringrawmaterials, refiningandmanufacturing,transportationanddistribution thehourglassis invertedandthesandsteadilydrainsaway.Theremnantsprovidenothing morethanasafetybuffertoeasethetransitiontothemomentwhen harvestingandmanufacturingmustbeginanew
AREBOOTMANUAL
Themostprofoundproblemfacingsurvivorsisthathumanknowledgeis collective,distributedacrossthepopulation.Nooneindividualknowsenough tokeepthevitalprocessesofsocietygoing.Evenifaskilledtechnicianfrom asteelfoundrysurvived,hewouldonlyknowthedetailsof his job,notthe subsetsofknowledgepossessedbyotherworkersatthefoundrythatarevital forkeepingitrunning letalonehowtomineironoreorprovideelectricity tokeeptheplantoperating.Themostvisibletechnologyweusedailyisjust thetipofavasticeberg notonlyinthesensethatit’sbasedonagreat manufacturingandorganizationalnetworkthatsupportsproduction,butalso becauseitrepresentstheheritageofalonghistoryofadvancesand developments.Theicebergextendsunseenthroughbothspaceandtime.
Sowherewouldsurvivorsturn?Agreatdealofinformationwillcertainly remaininthebooksgatheringdustontheshelvesofthenow-deserted libraries,bookshops,andhomes Theproblemwiththisknowledge,however, isthatitisn’tpresentedinawayappropriateforhelpingafledglingsociety oranindividualwithoutspecialisttraining.Whatdoyouthinkyou’d understandifyoujustpulledamedicaltextbookofftheshelfandflipped throughthepagesofterminologyanddrugnames?Universitymedical textbookspresupposeahugeamountofpriorknowledge,andaredesignedto workalongsideteachingandpracticaldemonstrationsfromestablished experts.Evenifthereweredoctorsamongthefirstgenerationofsurvivors, they’dbeseverelylimitedinwhattheycouldaccomplishwithouttestresults orthecornucopiaofmoderndrugstheyweretrainedtouse drugsthat wouldbedegradingonpharmacyshelvesorindefuncthospitalstorage refrigerators.
Muchofthisacademicliteraturewoulditselfbelost,perhapstofires rippinguncheckedthroughemptycities Evenworse,muchofthewealthof newknowledgegeneratedeachyear,includingthatwhichIandother
scientistsproduceandconsumeinourownresearch,isnotrecordedonany durablemediumatall.Thecuttingedgeofhumanunderstandingexists primarilyasephemeralbitsofdata:asspecialistjournals’academic“papers” storedonwebsiteservers.
Andthebooksaimedatgeneralreaderswouldn’tbemuchmorehelp.Can youimagineagroupofsurvivorswhohadaccesstoonlytheselectionof booksstockedinanaveragestore?Howfarwouldacivilizationgettryingto rebuilditselffromthewisdomcontainedinthepagesofself-helpguidesto succeedinginbusinessmanagement,thinkingyourselfthin,orreadingthe bodylanguageoftheoppositesex?Themostabsurdnightmarewouldbea post-apocalypticsocietydiscoveringafewyellowedandcrumblybooksand, thinkingthemthescientificwisdomoftheancients,tryingtoapply homeopathytocurbaplagueorastrologytoforecastharvests.Eventhebooks inthesciencesectionwouldofferlittlehelp.Thelatestpop-scipage-turner maybeengaginglywritten,makeclevermetaphoricaluseofeveryday observations,andleavethereaderwithadeeperunderstandingofsomenew research,butitprobablywon’tyieldmuchpragmaticknowledge.Inshort,the vastmajorityofourcollectivewisdomwouldnotbeaccessible atleastina usableform tothesurvivorsofacataclysm.Sohowbesttohelpthe survivors?Whatkeyinformationwouldaguidebookneedtodeliver,andhow mightitbestructured?
I’mnotthefirstpersontowrestlewiththisquestion.JamesLovelockisa scientistwithaformidabletrackrecordforstrikingattheheartofanissue longbeforehispeers.HeismostfamousforhisGaiahypothesis,which positsthattheentireplanet acomplexassemblageofrockycrustandoceans andswirlingatmosphere,alongwiththethinsmearoflifethathasestablished itselfacrossthesurface canbeunderstoodasasingleentitythatactsto dampdowninstabilitiesandself-regulateitsenvironmentoverbillionsof years Lovelockisdeeplyconcernedthatoneelementofthissystem, Homo sapiens,nowhasthecapacitytodisruptthesenaturalchecksandbalances withdevastatingeffect.
Lovelockdrawsonabiologicalanalogytoexplainhowwemight safeguardourheritage:“Organismsthatfacedesiccationoftenencapsulate theirgenesinsporessothattheinformationfortheirrenewaliscarried throughthedrought.”ThehumanequivalentenvisagedbyLovelockisabook forallseasons,“aprimeronscience,clearlywrittenandunambiguousinits meaning aprimerforanyoneinterestedinthestateoftheEarthandhowto surviveandlivewellonit.”Whatheproposesisatrulymassiveundertaking: recordingthecompleteassemblageofhumanknowledgeinahugetextbook adocumentthatyoucould,atleastinprinciple,readfromcovertocover, andthenwalkawayknowingtheessentialsofeverythingthatisnowknown.
Infact,theideaofa“totalbook”hasamuchlongerhistory.Inthepast, encyclopediacompilersappreciatedfarmoreacutelythanwedotodaythe fragilityofevengreatcivilizations,andtheexquisitevalueofthescientific knowledgeandpracticalskillsheldinthemindsofthepopulationthat evaporateoncethesocietycollapses.DenisDiderotexplicitlyregardedhis Encyclopédie,publishedbetween1751and1772,asasaferepositoryof humanknowledge,preservingitforposterityincaseofacataclysmthat snuffsourcivilizationastheancientculturesoftheEgyptians,Greeks,and Romanshadallbeenlost,leavingbehindonlyrandomsurvivingfragmentsof theirwriting.Inthisway,theencyclopediabecomesatimecapsuleof accumulatedknowledge,allofitarrangedlogicallyandcross-referenced, protectedagainsttheerosionoftimeincaseofawidespreadcatastrophe.
SincetheEnlightenmentourunderstandingoftheworldhasincreased exponentially,andthetaskofcompilingacompletecompendiumofhuman knowledgewouldbeordersofmagnitudehardertoday.Thecreationofsucha “totalbook”wouldrepresentamodern-erapyramid-buildingproject, consumingthefull-timeexertionoftensofthousandsofpeopleovermany years.Thepurposeofthistoilwouldbetoensurenotthesafepassageofa pharaohtoeternalblissintheafterworld,buttheimmortalityofour civilizationitself.
Suchanall-consumingundertakingisnotinconceivableifthewillis there.Myparents’generationworkedhardtoputthefirstmanonthemoon: atitspeaktheApolloprogramemployed400,000peopleandconsumed4 percentofthetotalAmericanfederalbudget.Indeed,youmightthinkthatthe perfectcompendiumofcurrenthumanknowledgehasalreadybeencreatedby thephenomenalcombinedeffortofthecommittedvolunteersbehind Wikipedia.ClayShirky,anexpertonthesociologyandeconomicsofthe Internet,hasestimatedthatWikipediacurrentlyrepresentsaround100million man-hoursofdevotedeffortinwritingandediting Butevenifyoucould printWikipediainitsentirety,itshyperlinksreplacedbycross-referenced pagenumbers,you’dstillbeafarcryfromamanualenablingacommunityto rebuildcivilizationfromscratch.Itwasneverintendedforanythinglikethis purpose,andlackspracticaldetailsandtheorganizationforguiding progressionfromrudimentaryscienceandtechnologytomoreadvanced applications.Moreover,ahardcopywouldbeunfeasiblylarge andhow couldyouensurepost-apocalypticsurvivorswouldbeabletogetholdofa copy?
Infact,Ibelieveyoucanhelpsocietyrecovermuchbetterbytakinga slightlymoreelegantapproach
ThesolutioncanbefoundinaremarkmadebyphysicistRichard Feynman.Inhypothesizingaboutthepotentialdestructionofallscientific knowledgeandwhatmightbedoneaboutit,heallowedhimselfasingle
statement,tobetransmittedsecurelytowhicheverintelligentcreatures emergedafterthecataclysm:Whatsentenceholdsthemostinformationinthe fewestwords?“Ibelieve,”saidFeynman,“itisthe atomic hypothesis ...that all things are made of atoms little particles that move around in perpetual motion, attracting each other when they are a little distance apart, but repelling upon being squeezed into one another”
Themoreyouconsidertheimplicationsandtestablehypothesesemerging fromthissimplestatement,themoreitunfurlstoreleasefurtherrevelations aboutthenatureoftheworld.Theattractionofparticlesexplainsthesurface tensionofwater,andthemutualrepulsionofatomsincloseproximity explainswhyIdon’tfallstraightthroughthecaféchairI’msittingon The diversityofatoms,andthecompoundsproducedbytheircombinations,isthe keyprincipleofchemistry.Thissingle,carefullycraftedsentence encapsulatesahugedensityofinformation,whichunravelsandexpandsas youinvestigateit.
Butwhatifyourwordcountwasn’tquitesorestricted?Ifallowedthe luxuryofbeingmoreexpansivewhileretainingtheguidingprincipleof providingkey,condensedknowledgetoacceleraterediscovery,ratherthan attemptingtowriteacompleteencyclopediaofmodernunderstanding,isit feasibletowriteasinglevolumethatwouldconstituteasurvivor’squick-start guidetorebootingtechnologicalsociety?
IthinkthatFeynman’ssinglesentencecanbeimproveduponina fundamentallyimportantway.Possessing pure knowledgealonewithno meanstoexploititisimpotent.Tohelpafledglingsocietypullitselfupbyits ownbootstraps,you’vealsogottosuggesthowto utilize thatknowledge,to showitspracticalapplications.Forthesurvivorsofarecentapocalypse,the immediatepracticalapplicationsareessential.Understandingthebasictheory ofmetallurgyisonething,butusingtheprinciplestoscavengeandreprocess metalsfromthedeadcities,forinstance,isanother Theexploitationof knowledgeandscientificprinciplesistheessenceoftechnology,andaswe’ll seeinthisbook,thepracticesofscientificresearchandtechnological developmentareinextricablyintertwined.
InspiredbyFeynman,I’darguethatthebestwaytohelpsurvivorsofthe Fallisnottocreateacomprehensiverecordofallknowledge,buttoprovidea guidetothebasics,adaptedtotheirlikelycircumstances,aswellasa blueprintofthetechniquesnecessarytorediscovercrucialunderstandingfor themselves thepowerfulknowledge-generationmachinerythatisthe scientificmethod.Thekeytopreservingcivilizationistoprovideacondensed seedthatwillreadilyunpacktoyieldtheentireexpansivetreeofknowledge, ratherthanattemptingtodocumentthecolossaltreeitself.Whichfragments, toparaphraseT.S.Eliot,arebestshoredagainstourruins?
Thevalueofsuchabookispotentiallyenormous.Whatmighthave happenedinourownhistoryiftheclassicalcivilizationshadleftcondensed seedsoftheiraccumulatedknowledge?Oneofthemajorcatalystsforthe Renaissanceinthefifteenthandsixteenthcenturieswasthetrickleofancient learningbackintoWesternEurope.Muchofthisknowledge,lostwiththefall oftheRomanEmpire,waspreservedandpropagatedbyArabscholars carefullytranslatingandcopyingtexts;othermanuscriptswererediscovered byEuropeanscholars.Butwhatifthesetreatisesonphilosophy,geometry, andpracticalmechanismshadbeenpreservedinadistributednetworkoftime capsules?Andsimilarly,withtherightbookavailable,couldapostapocalypticDarkAgesbeaverted?*
ACCELERATEDDEVELOPMENT
Duringareboot,there’snoreasontoretracetheoriginalroutetoscientific andtechnologicalsophistication.Ourpaththroughhistoryhasbeenlongand tortuous,stumblinginalargelyhaphazardmanner,chasingredherringsand overlookingcrucialdevelopmentsforlongperiods.Butwith20/20hindsight, knowingwhatweknownow,couldwegivedirectionsstraighttocrucial advances,takingshortcutslikeanexperiencednavigator?Howmightwe chartanoptimalroutethroughthevastlyinterlinkednetworkofscientific principlesandenablingtechnologiestoaccelerateprogressasmuchas possible?
Keybreakthroughsinourhistoryareoftenserendipitous theywere stumbleduponbychance.AlexanderFleming’sdiscoveryoftheantibiotic propertiesof Penicillium moldin1928wasachanceoccurrence.Andindeed, theobservationthatfirsthintedatthedeepcouplingbetweenelectricityand magnetism thetwitchingofcompassneedlesleftnexttoawirecarrying current wasfortuitous,aswasthediscoveryofX-rays.Manyofthesekey discoveriescouldjustaseasilyhavehappenedearlier,someofthem substantiallyso.Oncenewnaturalphenomenahavebeendiscovered, progressisdrivenbysystematicandmethodicalinvestigationtounderstand theirworkingsandquantifytheireffects,buttheinitialuncoveringcanbe targetedwithafewchoicehintstotherecoveringcivilizationonwhereto lookandwhichinvestigationstoprioritize.
Likewise,manyinventionsseemobviousinretrospect,butsometimesthe timeofemergenceofakeyadvanceorinventiondoesn’tappeartohave followedanyparticularscientificdiscoveryorenablingtechnology.Forthe prospectsofarebootingcivilization,thesecasesareencouragingbecause theymeanthequick-startguideneedonlybrieflydescribeafewcentral designfeaturesforthesurvivorstofigureoutexactlyhowtore-createsome keytechnologies.Thewheelbarrow,forinstance,couldhaveoccurred
centuriesbeforeitactuallydid ifonlysomeonehadthoughtofit.Thismay seemlikeatrivialexample,combiningtheoperatingprinciplesofthewheel andthelever,butitrepresentsanenormouslaborsaver,anditdidn’tappear inEuropeuntilmillenniaafterthewheel(thefirstdepictionofawheelbarrow appearsinanEnglishmanuscriptwrittenabout1250AD).
Otherinnovationshavesuchwide-rangingeffects,aidingagreatdiversity ofotherdevelopments,thatyouwouldwanttobeelinedirectlytowardthem tosupportmanyotherelementsofthepost-apocalypticrecovery.The movable-typeprintingpressisonesuchgatewaytechnologythataccelerated developmentandhadincomparablesocialramificationsinourhistory.Witha littleguidance,mass-producedbookscouldreappearearlyintherebuildingof anewcivilization,aswe’llseelater.
Andwhendevelopingnewtechnologies,somestepsintheprogression couldbeskippedaltogether.Thequick-startguidecouldaidarecovering societybyshowinghowtoleapfrogstraightoverintermediatestagesfromour historytomoreadvanced,yetstillachievable,systems Thereareanumberof encouragingcasesofthiskindoftechnologicalleapfrogginginthe developingnationsinAfricaandAsiatoday.Forexample,manyremote communitiesunconnectedtopowergridsarereceivingsolar-power infrastructure,hoppingovercenturiesoftheWesternprogressiondependent onfossilfuels VillagerslivinginmudhutsinmanyruralpartsofAfricaare leapfroggingstraighttomobilephonecommunications,bypassing intermediatetechnologiessuchassemaphoretowers,telegraphs,orland-line telephones.
Butperhapsthemostimpressivefeatofleapfrogginginhistorywas achievedbyJapaninthenineteenthcentury.DuringtheTokugawashogunate, Japanisolateditselffortwocenturiesfromtherestoftheworld,forbiddingits citizenstoleaveorforeignerstoenter,andpermittingonlyminimaltradewith aselectfewnations Contactwasreestablishedinthemostpersuasivemanner in1853whentheUSNavyarrivedintheBayofEdo(Tokyo)with powerfullyweaponizedsteam-poweredwarships,farsuperiortoanything possessedbythetechnologicallystagnantJapanesecivilization.Theshockof realizationofthistechnologicaldisparitytriggeredtheMeijiRestoration. Japan’spreviouslyisolated,technologicallybackwardfeudalsocietywas transformedbyaseriesofpolitical,economic,andlegalreforms,andforeign expertsinscience,engineering,andeducationinstructedthenationhowto buildtelegraphandrailroadnetworks,textilemillsandfactories.Japan industrializedinamatterofdecades,andbythetimeoftheSecondWorld WarwasabletotakeonthemightoftheUSNavythathadforcedthisprocess inthefirstplace.
Couldapreservedcacheofappropriateknowledgeallowapostapocalypticsocietytosimilarlyachievearapiddevelopmentaltrajectory?
Unfortunately,therearelimitstohowfaraheadyoucanpusha civilizationbyskippingintermediatestages.Evenifthepost-apocalyptic scientistsfullyunderstandthebasisunderlyinganapplicationandhave producedadesignthatwouldworkinprinciple,itmaystillbeimpossibleto buildaworkingprototype.IcallthistheDaVincieffect.Thegreat Renaissanceinventorgeneratedendlessdesignsformechanismsand contraptions,suchashisfantasticflyingmachines,butfewofthemwereever realized.TheproblemwaslargelythatDaVinciwastoofaraheadofhistime. Correctscientificunderstandingandingeniousdesignsaren’tsufficient:you alsoneedamatchinglevelofsophisticationinconstructionmaterialswiththe necessarypropertiesandavailablepowersources
Sothetrickforaquick-startguidemustbetoprovideappropriate technologyforthepost-apocalypticworld,inthesamewaythataidagencies todaysupplysuitableintermediatetechnologiestocommunitiesinthe developingworld.Thesearesolutionsthatofferasignificantimprovementon thestatusquo anadvancefromtheexisting,rudimentarytechnology but whicharestillabletoberepairedandmaintainedbylocalworkmenwiththe practicalskills,tools,andmaterialsavailable.Thustheaimforanaccelerated rebootofcivilizationistojumpdirectlytoalevelthatsavescenturiesof incrementaldevelopment,butthatcanstillbeachievedwithrudimentary materialsandtechniques the sweet-spot intermediatetechnology
Itisthesefeaturesofourownhistory serendipitousdiscoveries, inventionsthatwerenotwaitingforanyprerequisiteknowledge,gateway technologiesthatstimulatedprogressinmanyareas,andopportunitiesto leapfrogoverintermediatestages thatgiveusoptimismthatawell-designed quick-startmanualforcivilizationcouldgivedirectionstowardthemost fertileinvestigationsandthecrucialprinciplesbehindkeytechnologies, guidinganoptimalroutethroughthewebofscienceandtechnology,andso greatlyacceleraterebuilding Imaginesciencewhenyou’renotfumbling aroundinthedark,butyourancestorshaveequippedyouwithaflashlight andaroughmapofthelandscape.
Ifarebootingcivilizationisnotrequiredtofollowourownidiosyncratic pathofprogress,itwillexperienceacompletelydifferentsequenceof advances Indeed,rebootingalongthesametrajectorythatourcurrent civilizationfollowedmaynowbeverydifficult.TheIndustrialRevolution waspoweredlargelybyfossilenergy.Mostoftheseeasilyaccessiblefossil energysources depositsofcoal,oil,andnaturalgas havenowbeenmined towarddepletion.Withoutaccesstosuchreadilyavailableenergy,howcould acivilizationfollowingourshaulitselfthroughasecondindustrial revolution?Thesolution,aswe’llsee,willlieinanearlyadoptionof renewableenergysourcesandcarefulrecyclingofassets sustainable
developmentwilllikelybeforcedonthenextcivilizationoutofsheer necessity:agreenreboot.
Intheprocess,unfamiliarcombinationsoftechnologieswillemergeover time.Wewilltakealookatexamplesofwherearecoveringsocietyislikely totakeadifferenttrajectoryinitsdevelopment thepathnottraveled as wellasutilizingtechnologicalsolutionsthatforushavefallenbythe wayside.Tous,Civilization2.0mightlooklikeamishmashoftechnologies fromdifferenteras,notunlikethegenreoffictionknownassteampunk. Steampunknarrativesaresetinanalternativehistorythathasfolloweda differentpatternofdevelopmentandisoftencharacterizedbyafusionof Victoriantechnologywithotherapplications Apost-apocalypticrebootwith verydifferentratesofprogressinseparatefieldsofscienceandtechnologyis likelytoleadtosuchananachronisticpatchwork.
CONTENTS
Arebootmanualwouldworkbestontwolevels.First,youneedacertain amountofpracticalknowledgehandedtoyouonaplate,soastorecovera baselevelofcapabilityandacomfortablelifestyleasquicklyaspossible,and tohaltfurtherdegeneration.Butyoualsoneedtonurturetherecoveryof scientificinvestigationandprovidethemostworthwhilekernelsof knowledgetobeginexploring.*
We’llstartwiththebasicsandseehowyoucanprovidethefundamental elementsofacomfortablelifeforyourselfaftertheFall:sufficientfoodand cleanwater,clothesandbuildingmaterials,energyandessentialmedicines. Therewillbeanumberofimmediateconcernsforthesurvivors:cultivable cropsmustbegatheredfromfarmlandandseedcachesbeforetheydieand arelost;dieselcanberenderedfrombiofuelcropstokeepenginesrunning untilthemachineryfails,andpartscanbescavengedtoreestablishalocal powergrid.We’lllookathowbesttocannibalizecomponentsandscavenge materialsfromthedetritusofthedeadcivilization:thepost-apocalypticworld willdemandingenuityinrepurposing,tinkering,andjury-rigging.
Oncetheessentialsareinplace,I’llexplainhowtoreinstateagriculture andsafelypreserveastockpileoffood,andhowplantandanimalfiberscan beturnedintoclothes.Materialssuchaspaper,ceramicpottery,brick,glass, andwroughtironaretodaysocommonplacethattheyareconsideredprosaic andboring buthowcouldyouactuallymakethemifyouneededto?Trees yieldanenormousamountofremarkablyusefulstuff:fromtimbermaterial forconstructiontocharcoalforpurifyingdrinkingwater,aswellasproviding afiercelyburningsolidfuel.Awholerangeofcrucialcompoundscanbe bakedoutofwood,andevenashescontainasubstance(calledpotash)needed formakingessentialitemssuchassoapandglass,aswellasproducingoneof
theingredientsofgunpowder.Withbasicknow-howyoucanextractagreat dealofothercriticallyusefulsubstancesfromyournaturalsurroundings soda,lime,ammonia,acids,andalcohol andstartapost-apocalyptic chemicalindustry.Andasyourcapabilitiesrecover,thequick-startguidewill helpthedevelopmentofexplosivessuitableforminingandfordemolishing thecarcassesofancientbuildings,aswellastheproductionofartificial fertilizer,andofthelight-sensitivesilvercompoundsusedinphotography.
Inlaterchapterswe’llseehowtorelearnmedicine,harnessmechanical power,masterthegenerationandstorageofelectricity,andassembleasimple radioset.Andsince The Knowledge containsinformationonhowtomake paper,ink,andaprintingpress,thebookitselfcontainsthegenetic instructionsforitsownreproduction.
Howmuchcanonebookinvigorateourunderstandingoftheworld?I obviouslycan’tbegintopretendthissinglevolumerepresentsacomplete documentationofthesumtotalofhumanknowledgeofscienceand technology ButIthinkitprovidesenoughofagroundinginthefundamentals tohelpsurvivorsintheearlyyearsafteraFall,andbroaddirectionsfor tracinganoptimalroutethroughthewebofscienceandtechnologyfora greatlyacceleratedrecovery.And,followingtheprincipleofproviding condensedkernelsofknowledgethatunravelunderinvestigation,asingle volumecanencapsulateavasttreasuretroveofinformation Bythetimeyou putdownthismanual,you’llunderstandhowtorebuildtheinfrastructurefor acivilizedlifestyle.You’llalso,Ihope,haveafirmergriponsomeofthe beautifulfundamentalsofscienceitself.Scienceisnotacollectionoffacts andfigures:itisthemethodyouneedtoapplytoconfidentlyworkouthow theworldworks.
Thepurposeofaquick-startguideistoensurethatthefireofcuriosity,of inquiryandexploration,continuestoburnfiercely.Thehopeisthatevenin themawofacataclysmicshockthethreadofcivilizationisnotbrokenand thesurvivingcommunitydoesnotregresstoofarorstagnate;thatthecoreof oursocietycanbepreserved;andthatthesecrucialkernelsofknowledge, nurturedinthepost-apocalypticworld,willflourishonceagain.
Thisistheblueprintforarebootingcivilization butalsoaprimeronthe fundamentalsofourown
CHAPTER1
THEENDOFTHEWORLDASWEKNOWIT
Themostgloriousmomentforaworkofthissortwouldbethatwhichmightcome immediatelyinthewakeofsomecatastrophesogreatastosuspendtheprogressof science,interruptthelaborsofcraftsmen,andplungeaportionofourhemisphere intodarknessonceagain.
DENIS DIDEROT, Encyclopédie (1751–1772)
THESEEMINGLYOBLIGATORYSCENE inanydisastermovieisapanningshot acrossabroadhighwaygridlockedwithtightlypackedvehiclesattemptingto fleethecity.Instancesofextremeroadrageflareasdriversgrowincreasingly desperate,beforeabandoningtheircarsamongtheothersalreadylitteringthe shouldersandlanesandjoiningthedrovesofpeoplepushingonwardonfoot. Evenwithoutanimmediatehazard,anyeventthatdisruptsdistribution networksortheelectricalgridwillstarvethecities’voraciousappetitefora constantinfluxofresourcesandforcetheirinhabitantsoutinahungry exodus:massmigrationsofurbaniterefugeesswarmingintothesurrounding countrysidetoscavengeforfood.
TEARINGUPTHESOCIALCONTRACT
Idon’twanttogetstuckinthephilosophicalquagmireofdebatingwhether mankindisintrinsicallyevilornot,andwhetheracontrollingauthorityisa necessaryconstructtoimposeasetoflawsandmaintainorderthroughthe threatofpunishment.Butitisclearthatwiththeevaporationofcentralized governanceandacivilpoliceforce,thosewithillintentionswillseizethe opportunitytosubjugateorexploitthosemorepeacefulorvulnerable.And oncethesituationseemssufficientlydire,evenpreviouslylaw-abiding citizenswillresorttowhateveractionisnecessarytoprovideforandprotect theirownfamilies.Toensureyourownsurvivalyoumayhavetoforageand scavengeforwhatyouneed:apoliteeuphemismforlooting.
Partofthegluethatbindssocietiestogetheristheexpectationthatthe pursuitofshort-termgainsthroughdeceptionorviolenceisfaroutweighedby thelong-termconsequences.You’llbecaughtandsociallystigmatizedasan
untrustworthypartnerorpunishedbythestate:cheatsdon’tprosper.Thistacit agreementbetweentheindividualsinasocietytocooperateandbehavefor thecollectivegood,sacrificingacertainamountoftheirownpersonal freedominexchangeforbenefitssuchasthemutualprotectionofferedbythe state,isknownasthesocialcontract.Itistheveryfoundationofallcollective endeavor,production,andeconomicactivityofacivilization,butthestructure beginstostrainandsocialcohesionloosensonceindividualsperceivegreater personalgainsincheating,orsuspectthatotherswillcheatthem.
Duringaseverecrisisthesocialcontractcansnapaltogether,precipitating acompletedisintegrationoflawandorder.Weneedlooknofurtherthanthe mosttechnologicallyadvancednationontheplanettoseetheeffectsofa localizedfractureinthesocialcontract.NewOrleanswasphysically devastatedbytherampageofHurricaneKatrina,butitwasthedesperate realizationbythecity’sinhabitantsthatlocalgovernancehadevaporatedand nohelpwouldbearrivinganytimesoonthatprecipitatedtherapid degenerationofnormalsocialorderandtheoutbreakofanarchy
Soafteracataclysmicevent,wemightexpectorganizedgangstoemerge tofillthepowervacuumleftbehindaftertheevaporationofgovernanceand lawenforcement,layingclaimtotheirownpersonalfiefdoms.Thosewho seizecontroloftheremainingresources(food,fuel,andsoon)will administertheonlyitemsthathaveanyinherentvalueinthenewworldorder Cashandcreditcardswillbemeaningless.Thoseappropriatingthecachesof preservedfoodastheirown“property”willbecomeverywealthyand powerful thenewkings controllingtheallocationoffoodtobuyloyalty andservicesinthesamewaythatancientMesopotamianemperorsdid.Inthis environment,peoplewithspecialskills,suchasdoctorsandnurses,mightdo welltokeepthistothemselves,astheymaybeforcedtoservethegangsas highlyspecializedslaves.
Lethalforcemaybeappliedswiftlytodeterlootersandraidsfromrival gangs,andasresourcesbecomedepletedthecompetitionwillgetonlyfiercer. Acommonmantraofpeoplewhoactivelypreparefortheapocalypse(called Preppers)is:“Itisbettertohaveagunandnotneeditthantoneedagunand nothaveit.”
OnepatternlikelytorecurovertheweeksandmonthsaftertheFallisthat smallcommunitiesofpeoplewillgathertogetherinadefensiblelocationfor mutualsupportandprotectionoftheirownstashofconsumables,lookingfor safetyinnumbers.Thesesmalldominionswillneedtopatrolandprotecttheir ownbordersinthewaythatwholenationsdotoday.Ironically,thesafest placeforagrouptobarricadethemselvesinandhunkerdownduringthe turbulencewouldbeoneofthefortressesdottedacrossthecountry,butnow turnedinsideoutinitspurpose.Prisonsarelargelyself-containedcompounds withhighwalls,sturdygates,barbedwire,andwatchtowers,originally