Market Update Q4 2023 - UK

MARKET Update

Q

4

Office Industrial Rates International Poul Erik Bech

Yield

Market rent

Employment GDP growt Availability

Residential rental

Consumer confidence

2023

Retail

Executive summary – 4th quarter The Danish economy has performed better than expected, although a slight decline in GDP for two consecutive quarters means that the economy is now in a technical recession. Inflation is at its lowest since May 2020, and Denmark has the second lowest level within the EU. The employment rate is at a historic peak, boasting over 3 million employees and showing continuous growth. However, the employment rate is slower than earlier this year, and employment is expected to decline in 2024. Consumer confidence remains negative, a trend that has persisted since the end of 2021, although there is some improvement.

All these factors contribute to supporting business activity, and leasing activity in the market for retail, office, industrial, and logistics properties is decreasing, albeit from a high level of activity. This has resulted in a slight increase in vacancy rates for all three property types. Nevertheless, for all property types, the vacancy rates remain historically low. Due to relatively low economic expectations in the first half of 2024, we anticipate a continued mild increase in vacancy rates in the upcoming quarters.

The market for investment properties is significantly lower than last year, primarily due to the high-interest rates experienced. However, there are signs that interest rates are stabilizing, especially as central banks have indicated that the peak is approaching. The rate of return for several property types and in various geographical areas has increased slightly since the last quarter. At the same time, forecasts for the levels in 12 months indicate further increases in the rate of return in many places. The observed rise in interest rates and decreasing activity are expected to result in lower vacancy rates for investment properties.

Transaction volume 2023

Transaction volume 2017-2023

18 billion DKK

140 billion DKK

16

120

14 100

12 10

80

8

60

6

40

4 20

2

0

0 1. quarter

Residential

2. quarter

Office

Retail

3. quarter

Industri

4. quarter*

Hotel

Other

2017

Residential

2018

Office

2019

Retail

2020

2021

Industry & logistics

2023*

2022

Hotel

Other

* Calculated as of 30 November 2023

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›

The Danish economy Annual GDP growth 8% 6.8%

6% 4% 2%

3.2% 2.3%

1.9%

2.8%

1.3%

2.7% 2.0%

1.6%

1.7%

1.5%

0.9%

1.3% 1.3%

0.2%

0% -2%

-2.4% 2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

-4%

Real growth in BNP compared to previous year (%)

After two years of strong growth in GDP of 4.9% and 3.8% in 2021 and 2022, respectively, there are now prospects for a growth slowdown. The preliminary calculation of GDP growth for 2023 is 1.7%. The lower GDP growth can be linked to a reduced private consumption due to rising interest rates and a reduced purchasing power from a historical high inflation. The latest forecast from Danmarks Nationalbank shows an expected growth of 1.3% in both 2024 and 2025. The forecast for GDP this year is higher than the last forecast indicating that the risk of a mild recession has been averted. This can be linked to a high foreign demand, which is most likely associated with the noticeable production increase in the pharmaceutical industry. The forecast for GDP next year is 0.1 percentage points higher than the last forecast.

Expected real growth in BNP compared to previous year (%)

Source: Statistics Denmark & Nationalbanken

Interest rates In 2023, the development in interest rates has been more stagnant compared to 2022, where interest rates increased significantly.

This is due to a more moderate and falling development in inflation, which has been particularly driven by a decrease in energy costs.

The short mortgage rate, which is closely correlated the monetary policy actions of the Federal Reserve (FED) and the European Central Bank (ECB), has undergone a more subdued development and stands at 3.6% in November 2023. The long mortgage rate has been more volatile and consolidated in 2023 and stands at 5.2% in November 2023.

Source: Finance Denmark & Statistics Denmark

6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%

Short-term mortgage rate

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

-1%

Long-term mortgage rate

Consumer confidence indicator 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

-40

Consumer confidence indicates the population’s view of its current and future economic situation and is thus a good indicator of how the general population is affected by Denmark’s economic situation. Consumer confidence in Oktober is at minus 11.8 and has thus risen since September, when it was at minus 13. Prior August, consumer confidence has been steadily increasing since October 2022 when consumer confidence reached its lowest point at minus 37.0.

The average for 2023 is minus 16.4. Four out of five indicators that together make up consumer confidence have risen since last month. It is especially a more positive assessment of the economic situation for Denmark today compared to a year ago, as well as the family’s economic situation a year from now compared to today, that contributes to the positive development in the aggravated Source: Statistics Denmark consumer confidence.

Employees The latest figures from Statistics Denmark from September 2023 show an increase in the number of employees of 3,097 persons compared to August. The number of employees increased in most sectors, especially in Public administration, defense, and police by approx. 6,800 persons. The sector that experiences the largest fall was Travel agencies, cleaning, and other operational services of 1,929 persons. With 34,209 new employees since September 2022, employment has reached above 3.000.000 persons and remains therefore at peak levels.

Source: Statistics Denmark

3.0 Mio

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.6

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2.5

3

Residential rental newer properties

Area* (see specifications page 14)

Capital of Denmark

Central Copenhagen

Østerbro, Frederiksberg and Gentofte

Harbour areas

Ørestad

Remaining Copenhagen

Western suburbs

Remaining Zealand

Northern suburbs

North Zealand

East Zealand

West Zealand

South Zealand

Lolland, Falster and Møn

Odense

Other Funen

Southern Denmark

Vejle

Kolding

Fredericia

Esbjerg

Sønderborg

Other South Jutland

Central Jutland

Aarhus

Silkeborg

Viborg

Herning

Northern Jutland

West Jutland

Aalborg

Hjørring

Frederikshavn

Prime Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

4

Secondary

Tertiary

Trend 

4.00%

4.25%

4.50%

2,550 DKK

2,200 DKK

2,000 DKK



4.00%

4.25%

4.50%



2,450 DKK

2,100 DKK

1,950 DKK

 

4.00%

4.25%

4.50%

2,400 DKK

2,000 DKK

1,800 DKK



4.25%

4.50%

5.00%



1,900 DKK

1,800 DKK

1,700 DKK



4.25%

4.50%

5.00%



2,300 DKK

2,000 DKK

1,800 DKK



4.50%

5.00%

5.25%



1,750 DKK

1,600 DKK

1,500 DKK



4.25%

4.75%

5.00%



2,000 DKK

1,750 DKK

1,500 DKK



4.50%

5.00%

6.00%



1,900 DKK

1,650 DKK

1,400 DKK



4.50%

5.00%

6.50%



1,900 DKK

1,600 DKK

1.300 DKK



5.50%

6.75%

8.00%



1,500 DKK

1,300 DKK

1,000 DKK



5.25%

6.25%

7.50%



1,350 DKK

1,100 DKK

950 DKK



5.75%

6.75%

8.00%



1,200 DKK

950 DKK

800 DKK



4.75%

5.00%

5.50%



1,450 DKK

1,275 DKK

1,100 DKK



5.25%

5.75%

6.50%



1,250 DKK

1,100 DKK

950 DKK



5.00%

5.50%

6.25%



1,400 DKK

1,200 DKK

1,000 DKK



5.50%

6.00%

6.75%



1,350 DKK

1,150 DKK

950 DKK



5.50%

6.00%

6.75%



1,300 DKK

1,100 DKK

875 DKK



5.50%

6.25%

7.50%



1,250 DKK

900 DKK

750 DKK



6.00%

7.00%

8.00%



1,150 DKK

900 DKK

750 DKK



6.00%

7.00%

8.00%



1,100 DKK

800 DKK

675 DKK



4.25%

4.75%

5.25%



1,850 DKK

1,600 DKK

1,350 DKK



4.75%

5.75%

7.25%



1,400 DKK

1,050 DKK

950 DKK



5.25%

6.25%

7.25%



1,125 DKK

1,000 DKK

850 DKK



5.25%

5.75%

7.00%



1,200 DKK

1,050 DKK

900 DKK



5.50%

6.50%

8.00%



1,200 DKK

850 DKK

750 DKK



4.50%

5.00%

5.75%



1,400 DKK

1,150 DKK

950 DKK



5.25%

6.50%

7.25%



1,150 DKK

950 DKK

775 DKK



6.00%

7.00%

7.50%



1,050 DKK

850 DKK

650 DKK



Source: EDC International Poul Erik Bech, estimates as of Q4 2023

Yield in %, annual market rent in DKK/sq m incl. operating expenses and trends for the next 12 months

Residential rental fully developed properties

Capital of Denmark

Area* (see specifications page 14) Central Copenhagen

Østerbro, Frederiksberg and Gentofte

Remaining Copenhagen

Western suburbs

Remaining Zealand

Northern suburbs

North Zealand

East Zealand

West Zealand

South Zealand

Lolland, Falster and Møn

Odense

Other Funen

Southern Denmark

Vejle

Kolding

Fredericia

Esbjerg

Sønderborg

Other South Jutland

Central Jutland

Aarhus

Silkeborg

Viborg

Herning

Northern Jutland

West Jutland

Aalborg

Hjørring

Frederikshavn

Prime Yield in % Annual rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual rent in DKK/sq m

Secondary

Tertiary

Trend 

4.00%

4.25%

4.50%

1,800 DKK

1,650 DKK

1,500 DKK



4.00%

4.50%

4.75%



1,750 DKK

1,650 DKK

1,550 DKK

 

4.25%

4.50%

5.00%

1,700 DKK

1,600 DKK

1,500 DKK



4.75%

5.25%

6.00%



1,600 DKK

1,525 DKK

1,225 DKK



4.50%

5.00%

5.75%



1,500 DKK

1,350 DKK

1,225 DKK

 

4.75%

5.00%

6.00%

1,500 DKK

1,350 DKK

1,250 DKK



4.50%

5.25%

7.00%



1,600 DKK

1,300 DKK

1,000 DKK



5.25%

6.50%

7.50%



1,150 DKK

900 DKK

750 DKK



5.25%

6.25%

7.75%



1,200 DKK

900 DKK

700 DKK



6.00%

7.50%

8.50%



1,000 DKK

825 DKK

725 DKK

 

Yield in %

5.00%

5.25%

5.75%

Annual rent in DKK/sq m

900 DKK

875 DKK

800 DKK



Yield in %

5.75%

6.25%

7.50%



Annual rent in DKK/sq m

825 DKK

725 DKK

600 DKK



Yield in %

5.25%

6.00%

6.50%



1,125 DKK

975 DKK

800 DKK

 

Annual rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual rent in DKK/sq m Yield in %

5.75%

6.25%

7.00%

1,175 DKK

1.000 DKK

850 DKK



5.75%

6.25%

7.25%



1,175 DKK

975 DKK

800 DKK



5.50%

6.50%

7.50%



1,050 DKK

725 DKK

550 DKK



5.75%

6.75%

7.75%



1,000 DKK

950 DKK

750 DKK



Yield in %

6.00%

7.25%

8.25%



Annual rent in DKK/sq m

950 DKK

750 DKK

625 DKK

 

Annual rent in DKK/sq m

Yield in % Annual rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual rent in DKK/sq m Yield in %

4.00%

4.50%

5.00%

1,575 DKK

1,350 DKK

1,200 DKK



4.75%

5.75%

7.25%



1,350 DKK

900 DKK

650 DKK



5.75%

7.00%

8.25%



1,100 DKK

850 DKK

650 DKK

 

5.50%

6.25%

7.25%

1,150 DKK

925 DKK

750 DKK



6.00%

7.25%

9.00%



1,100 DKK

750 DKK

650 DKK



4.50%

5.25%

6.25%



1,250 DKK

1,100 DKK

900 DKK



Yield in %

5.75%

6.50%

7.75%



Annual rent in DKK/sq m

Annual rent in DKK/sq m

900 DKK

800 DKK

700 DKK



Yield in %

6.50%

7.25%

8.00%



Annual rent in DKK/sq m

850 DKK

750 DKK

625 DKK



5

Source: EDC International Poul Erik Bech, estimates as of Q4 2023

Yield in %, annual rent in DKK/sq m incl. operating expenses and trends for the next 12 months

Residential rental cost determined rental properties

Northern Jutland

Central Jutland

Southern Denmark

Remaining Zealand

Capital of Denmark

Area* (see specifications page 14)

Prime

Secondary

Tertiary

Trend

Central Copenhagen

Yield in %

1.50%

2.25%

3.00%



Østerbro, Frederiksberg and Gentofte

Yield in %

1.75%

2.25%

3.00%



Remaining Copenhagen

Yield in %

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%



Western suburbs

Yield in %

3.00%

3.75%

4.50%



Northern suburbs

Yield in %

3.00%

3.50%

4.25%



North Zealand

Yield in %

4.00%

4.75%

5.75%



East Zealand

Yield in %

4.00%

5.00%

6.50%



West Zealand

Yield in %

5.00%

6.25%

7.00%



South Zealand

Yield in %

5.00%

6.00%

7.25%



Odense

Yield in %

3.50%

4.50%

5.25%



Other Funen

Yield in %

5.25%

5.50%

7.00%



Vejle

Yield in %

5.00%

5.50%

6.00%



Kolding

Yield in %

5.00%

5.50%

6.50%



Fredericia

Yield in %

5.50%

6.00%

7.00%



Esbjerg

Yield in %

5.00%

5.50%

6.50%



Sønderborg

Yield in %

5.50%

6.00%

6.50%



Other South Jutland

Yield in %

5.25%

6.25%

7.25%



Aarhus

Yield in %

2.50%

3.75%

5.25%



Silkeborg

Yield in %

4.50%

5.25%

7.00%



Viborg

Yield in %

5.25%

6.00%

7.75%



Aalborg

Yield in %

3.25%

4.50%

5.75%



Hjørring

Yield in %

5.25%

6.00%

7.00%



Frederikshavn

Yield in %

5.75%

6.75%

7.50%



6

Source: EDC International Poul Erik Bech, estimates as of Q4 2023

Yield in percent and trends for the next 12 months

The development of residential rental properties Expected increased interest rates, inflation, and new property taxes are anticipated to lead to a decrease in residential property prices in the coming year. Geographical variations will be significant, with anticipated price drops in the biggest cities, especially for owner-occupied flats, and potentially rising prices in rural areas due to lower property taxes. Interest rate increases will also impact homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages through significantly higher monthly payments. First-time buyers will face increased financing requirements without corresponding price declines, potentially leading to increased rental activity.

The demand for rental properties significantly declined in 2023, underscored by an approximately 80 % decrease in transaction volume between the first half of 2022 and the first half of 2023. This decline is attributed to inflation, rising interest rates, and general uncertainty. The rate of return among buyers has increased remarkably, but sellers are slowly adapting to the new market situation. Overall, the rate of return is still lower in Denmark compared to the neighboring countries, partially due to a more robust financing structure between Danish property investors.

Even with notable construction activity, the vacancy rate is still relatively limited nationally. Increasing interest rates and increased uncertainty limit the options to secure the same loan-to-value ratios as before, which is expected to slow down the number of new projects in the coming years.

This may help keep the vacancy rates low, especially in areas with an oversupply of housing after many years of high construction activity.

The nationwide residential vacancy rate was 4.2% in the third quarter of 2023, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to the same quarter the previous year. The market rent is expected to remain stable to slightly increasing, while the rate of return is expected to stay steady around current levels. The anticipated stability in the rate of return is partly attributed to the outlook for declining interest rates around the end of 2024, which will naturally improve the conditions of the transaction market.

7

Office Area* (see specifications page 14)

Capital of Denmark

Central Copenhagen

Østerbro, Frederiksberg and Gentofte

Harbour areas

Ørestad

Remaining Copenhagen

Western suburbs

Remaining Zealand

Northern suburbs

North Zealand

East Zealand

West Zealand

South Zealand

Lolland, Falster and Møn

Odense

Other Funen

Southern Denmark

Vejle

Kolding

Fredericia

Esbjerg

Sønderborg

Other South Jutland

Central Jutland

Aarhus

Silkeborg

Viborg

Herning

Northern Jutland

West Jutland

Aalborg

Hjørring

Frederikshavn

Prime Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in %

Secondary

Tertiary

Trend 

4.00%

4.75%

5.50%

2,650 DKK

1,800 DKK

1,450 DKK



4.25%

5.00%

6.00%



2,350 DKK

1,600 DKK

1,350 DKK

 

4.00%

4.75%

5.75%

2,700 DKK

1,850 DKK

1,600 DKK



4.75%

5.25%

6.25%



2,050 DKK

1,600 DKK

1,450 DKK



4.75%

5.75%

6.50%



1,900 DKK

1,350 DKK

1,000 DKK

 

5.25%

7.25%

9.75%

1,400 DKK

850 DKK

600 DKK



5.00%

5.75%

8.75%



1,625 DKK

1,350 DKK

750 DKK



5.50%

6.25%

8.75%



1,425 DKK

1,025 DKK

700 DKK



6,25%

7.25%

10.50%



1,400 DKK

900 DKK

450 DKK



6.50%

8.50%

10.50%



1,150 DKK

700 DKK

350 DKK

 

7.00%

8.25%

10.75%

1,000 DKK

700 DKK

350 DKK



Yield in %

7.25%

9.00%

11.00%



Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

850 DKK

650 DKK

400 DKK



Yield in %

5.75%

6.50%

8.50%



1,550 DKK

1,000 DKK

650 DKK

 

Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in %

6.50%

8.00%

9.50%

1,200 DKK

800 DKK

400 DKK



6.25%

7.50%

9.50%



1,450 DKK

950 DKK

550 DKK



6.50%

7.75%

9.75%



1,400 DKK

800 DKK

450 DKK



6.50%

8.25%

10.00%



1,350 DKK

900 DKK

500 DKK



7.00%

8.50%

10.00%



1,400 DKK

800 DKK

450 DKK

 

7.50%

9.00%

10.50%

1,150 DKK

700 DKK

400 DKK



Yield in %

8.00%

9.50%

11.75%



Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

900 DKK

700 DKK

400 DKK



Yield in %

5.00%

6.00%

8.00%



1,950 DKK

1,450 DKK

800 DKK

 

Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in %

6.25%

7.25%

9.25%

1,300 DKK

700 DKK

450 DKK



Yield in %

6.75%

7.50%

9.25%



Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

975 DKK

600 DKK

400 DKK



Yield in %

6.75%

7.50%

9.25%



Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

1.150 DKK

700 DKK

425 DKK



Yield in %

7.00%

8.25%

10.25%



Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

850 DKK

500 DKK

350 DKK



Yield in %

5.75%

6.50%

7.50%



1,300 DKK

900 DKK

600 DKK

 

Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in %

7.00%

8.00%

11.00%

1,000 DKK

650 DKK

400 DKK



Yield in %

7.50%

8.50%

11.00%



Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

850 DKK

500 DKK

350 DKK



Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

8

Source: EDC International Poul Erik Bech, estimates as of Q4 2023

Yield in %, annual market rent in DKK/sq m incl. operating expenses and trends for the next 12 months

The development of office properties Available office space as a percentage of building stock

Source: Ejendomstorvet-ED Statistikken, estimates as of Q4 2023

14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2%

Capital Region of Denmark

Region Zealand

Region of Southern Denmark

Demand for attractive office properties has been high in 2022, with significant transactions at a low rate of return.

This is due to a robust labor market, which has experienced record-high employment. However, forecasts suggest a decline in employment of up to 22,000 people in the second half of 2023 and the first half of 2024. This uncertainty may lead to lower demand for office spaces, with significant consequences for the segment, which has already negatively impacted transaction activity this year.

Central Denmark Region

North Denmark Region

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

0%

Denmark, total

Larger companies are increasingly seeking certified spaces due to their ESG profile, and anticipated increased regulation at the national and European levels may have significant consequences for non-certified properties. This will also affect the demand for certification of the existing building stock, requiring substantial capital investment to reduce the carbon footprint.

The nationwide vacancy rate for office spaces was 5.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023, representing an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared to the same quarter the previous year. The rate of return is expected to remain generally stable in the coming year, along with market rents.

Companies continue to demand flexible office solutions, especially in Copenhagen, where the supply is abundant, while demand in Aarhus exceeds the supply, especially in the city center. At the same time, there are opposing trends with companies implementing policies for remote workdays to bring employees back to the office.

Flexibility is crucial, but both tenants and investors are also seeking modern and sustainable office spaces. The expectation is that the value of certified properties, for example, those with DGNB certification, will eventually surpass the value of non-certified properties, supported by international research. However, how the risk premiums will develop between certified and non-certified properties is more uncertain.

9

Retail Yield in %, annual market rent in DKK/sq m incl. operating expenses and trends for the next 12 months

Strøget

Capital of Denmark

Central Copenhagen

Østerbro, Frederiksberg and Gentofte

Harbour areas

Ørestad

Remaining Copenhagen

Western suburbs

Remaining Zealand

Northern suburbs

North Zealand

East Zealand

West Zealand

South Zealand

Lolland, Falster and Møn

Odense

Other Funen

Southern Denmark

Vejle

Kolding

Fredericia

Esbjerg

Sønderborg

Other South Jutland

Central Jutland

Aarhus

Silkeborg

Viborg

Herning

Northern Jutland

West Jutland

Aalborg

Hjørring

Frederikshavn

Prime Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in %

Secondary

Tertiary

Trend

4.00%

4.50%

5.00%



20,000 DKK

11,000 DKK

6,000 DKK

 

5.00%

5.75%

6.25%

4,750 DKK

2,500 DKK

1,800 DKK

 

5.25%

6.00%

7.00%

4,000 DKK

2,250 DKK

1,400 DKK



5.00%

5.75%

6.25%



2,750 DKK

1,800 DKK

1,500 DKK



5.50%

6.25%

7.00%



2,400 DKK

1,750 DKK

1,500 DKK

 

5.50%

6.25%

7.50%

3,000 DKK

1,750 DKK

1,050 DKK



5.75%

7.25%

9.25%



2,500 DKK

1,500 DKK

850 DKK



5.50%

6.50%

8.00%



4,400 DKK

1,900 DKK

1,000 DKK



5.75%

7.00%

8.75%



3,400 DKK

1,600 DKK

750 DKK



6.00%

7.25%

8.75%



2,800 DKK

1,400 DKK

900 DKK

 

6.75%

7.75%

9.75%

1,700 DKK

950 DKK

500 DKK



6.75%

7.75%

9.75%



1.600 DKK

900 DKK

500 DKK



Yield in %

8.00%

9.50%

11.00%



Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

900 DKK

700 DKK

400 DKK

 

Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m Yield in % Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

6.00%

7.00%

8.25%

5,250 DKK

2,500 DKK

650 DKK



6.50%

7.75%

10.25%



2,100 DKK

1,250 DKK

500 DKK



6.50%

7.50%

9.50%



2,900 DKK

1,500 DKK

750 DKK



6.75%

7.75%

9.50%



2,100 DKK

1,200 DKK

600 DKK



7.25%

8.25%

10.00%



1,650 DKK

1.000 DKK

550 DKK

 

7.25%

8.75%

10.25%

2,350 DKK

1,000 DKK

550 DKK



7.50%

9.00%

10.25%



1,800 DKK

1,200 DKK

400 DKK



8.00%

9.25%

10.50%



1,500 DKK

1,000 DKK

400 DKK

 

4.75%

5.75%

7.50%

6,000 DKK

2,500 DKK

1.000 DKK



6.75%

7.75%

9.00%



2,400 DKK

1,050 DKK

550 DKK



7.00%

8.00%

10.25%



2,500 DKK

1,050 DKK

500 DKK



7.25%

8.25%

10.00%



1,750 DKK

900 DKK

500 DKK



7.50%

8.75%

11.00%



2,300 DKK

750 DKK

500 DKK

 

5.75%

7.00%

8.75%

4,000 DKK

1,800 DKK

900 DKK



7.00%

8.00%

10.00%



1,400 DKK

750 DKK

400 DKK



7.50%

8.50%

10.00%



1,200 DKK

700 DKK

375 DKK



Source: EDC International Poul Erik Bech, estimates as of Q4 2023

Area* (see specifications page 14)

The development of retail properties Available retail space as a percentage of building stock

Source: Ejendomstorvet-ED Statistikken, estimates as of Q4 2023

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

Capital Region of Denmark

Region Zealand

Region of Southern Denmark

The retail sector faces increased uncertainty due to economic turbulence in 2022, driven by rising interest rates and inflation that negatively impact consumers’ real income and purchasing power. This raises the risk of increasing vacancies, especially among smaller tenants with fragile finances sensitive to economic fluctuations.

Central Denmark Region

North Denmark Region

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

0%

Denmark, total

Consumer confidence has been negative since November 2021, contributing to uncertainties in the retail segment.

Despite this, there has been a demand for grocery portfolios with significant geographic diversification in recent years, as they are considered to offer an attractive risk-adjusted return and are resilient to economic fluctuations.

The grocery segment has been appealing due to long non-termination periods in lease agreements and, as a result, ranks high on investors’ interest lists.

Higher rent increases due to NPI regulation have further strained tenants. However, not all landlords have fully implemented NPI regulation, as some take into consideration the tenants’ resilience and the risk of termination or a §13 rent adjustment. The risk of significant NPI regulations has increased attention on regulation in lease agreements, which is expected to lead to increased demands for maximum regulation going forward.

The retail vacancy rate gradually increased and reached 3.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023, representing a 0.4 percentage point increase over the past year. Yield requirements are generally assessed to remain stable in the coming year, as is the case with market rents.

11

Industrial Area* (see specifications page 14) Remaining Copenhagen

Western suburbs

Remaining Zealand

Northern suburbs

North Zealand

East Zealand

West Zealand

South Zealand

Lolland, Falster and Møn

Odense

Other Funen

Southern Denmark

Vejle

Kolding

Fredericia

Esbjerg

Sønderborg

Other South Jutland

Central Jutland

Aarhus

Silkeborg

Viborg

Herning

Northern Jutland

West Jutland

Aalborg

Hjørring

Frederikshavn

Prime Yield in %

Secondary

Tertiary

Trend 

5.00%

5.50%

6.25%

1,000 DKK

800 DKK

600 DKK



Yield in %

5.50%

7.25%

9.00%



Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

750 DKK

600 DKK

450 DKK

 

Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

Yield in %

5.75%

6.75%

8.00%

Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

800 DKK

550 DKK

400 DKK



Yield in %

6.00%

7.25%

9.00%



Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

800 DKK

550 DKK

375 DKK



Yield in %

5.00%

6.25%

9.00%



Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

750 DKK

500 DKK

300 DKK

 

Yield in %

6.50%

8.50%

10.50%

Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

550 DKK

350 DKK

200 DKK



Yield in %

7.00%

8.75%

10.75%



Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

475 DKK

300 DKK

200 DKK



Yield in %

8.00%

9.50%

12.00%



Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

550 DKK

300 DKK

200 DKK



Yield in %

5.50%

7.00%

8.50%



Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

550 DKK

400 DKK

250 DKK



Yield in %

5.75%

8.25%

10.00%



Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

500 DKK

350 DKK

200 DKK

 

Yield in %

5.50%

7.50%

9.50%

Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

600 DKK

375 DKK

250 DKK



Yield in %

5.50%

7.75%

9.75%



Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

575 DKK

375 DKK

250 DKK



Yield in %

5.25%

7.25%

8.50%



Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

600 DKK

400 DKK

250 DKK

 

Yield in %

6.50%

8.50%

10.00%

Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

450 DKK

300 DKK

225 DKK



Yield in %

6.75%

9.25%

11.25%



Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

500 DKK

275 DKK

200 DKK



Yield in %

6.75%

9.25%

11.25%



Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

500 DKK

275 DKK

200 DKK



Yield in %

5.25%

6.75%

9.00%



Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

575 DKK

450 DKK

300 DKK



Yield in %

7.25%

8.50%

10.50%



Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

450 DKK

350 DKK

200 DKK

 

Yield in %

7.25%

8.75%

10.75%

Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

400 DKK

300 DKK

200 DKK



Yield in %

7.25%

8.75%

10.50%



Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

400 DKK

300 DKK

200 DKK



Yield in %

7.50%

9.25%

12.00%



Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

350 DKK

225 DKK

150 DKK

 

Yield in %

6.00%

7.25%

9.00%

Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

525 DKK

375 DKK

250 DKK



Yield in %

7.25%

9.25%

11.00%



Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

400 DKK

300 DKK

200 DKK



Yield in %

7.50%

9.50%

11.75%



Annual market rent in DKK/sq m

400 DKK

275 DKK

150 DKK



12

Source: EDC International Poul Erik Bech, estimates as of Q4 2023

Yield in %, annual market rent in DKK/sq m incl. operating expenses and trends for the next 12 months

The development of industrial properties Available industrial space as a percentage of building stock

Source: Ejendomstorvet-ED Statistikken, estimates as of Q4 2023

9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1%

Capital Region of Denmark

Region Zealand

Region of Southern Denmark

The logistics segment has experienced sustained high demand, with only a minimal decline in the first six months of 2023 compared to the previous year. The focus is on modern logistics properties near essential infrastructure such as highways. Companies are transitioning from just-in-time to last-mile logistics, especially with increasing pressure on electricity in the transportation sector. This raises the need for high-ceiling warehouse spaces with good access conditions and ramps.

Central Denmark Region

North Denmark Region

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

0%

Denmark, total

A supply shortage follows the increasing demand, partly due to the conversation of urban industrial and logistics areas into residential spaces and difficulties in finding suitable land. Rising construction costs and increasing interest rates impact the outlook for new construction, which could exacerbate the gap between supply and demand.

The industrial segment is also experiencing high demand driven by users. The vacancy rate for industrial and logistics property has slightly increased in the past year, reaching 1.9% in the fourth quarter of 2023, with a rise of 2023, with a rise 0.6 percentage points. However, the rate of return and market rents are expected to remain stable.

Interest in sustainable properties, preferably certified ones, is growing, along with an increasing demand for sale-andlease-back agreements with long-term leases. This reduces the risk for investors and provides predictability for companies. Triple-net leases, where the tenant covers all operating expenses except administration, are also becoming more common.

13

Definitions Location and condition Yield and rent levels estimates are based on primary, secondary and tertiary categories, where primary is the best and tertiary is the worst. Various variables for each property type have been taken into consideration with regards to determine the facility classes, such as: size, floor plan structure, year of construction, lifts, climate control, cabling infrastructure, staff facilities, customer facilities, parking facilities, building energy rating, ceiling height, general accessibility, general condition of the property, etc.

Primary: A property with prime location and class A facilities has the best possible location in an area, the highest standard when it comes to facilities, is modern and ready to move into. This type of property will typically be sold at the lowest yield in the area, have the highest market rent and have a short reletting process.

Secondary: Average in terms of location and condition.

Yield and rent levels also reflect the average levels for the area. The re-rental options are market compliant and reflect the general market conditions.

Tertiary: Poor location for the area, low standard, and outdated. This type of property is expected to be able to be sold at a relatively high yield level, and the rent level is low for the defined area. Similarly, vacancy rates can be expected to be higher than the market average.

Yield All yields are initial net yields and are defined as the annualized rent generated by the property after the deduction of estimated annual irrecoverable property outgoings, expressed as a percentage of the property valuation (property valuation is adjusted for the value of rental deposits and prepaid rent). For comparison purposes, it is assumed that all properties are fully let at market-conform conditions.

Residential rental properties 1) Newer residential rental properties are properties that have been occupied after 31.12.1991 and thus covered by the rules on free/market rent according to the Danish Residential Rent Regulation Act section 54 (1, 1).

2) Cost determined rental properties are older residential rental properties that have been occupied before 31.12.1991 and are regulated in accordance with the provisions of the Danish Residential Rent Regulation Act on cost-determined rent.

3) Fully developed older residential rental properties are older home rental properties without further potential for rent increases through modernization pursuant to section 19 (2) of the Danish Residential Rent Regulation Act. Data for available commercial premises The source of available commercial premises is the latest available supply statistics from Ejendomstorvet. Further information about these statistics can be found at ejendomstorvet.dk/statistik/udbudsstatistik.

Trends All trends reflect our expectations to the level in 12 months time.  The figure is expected to increase  The figure is expected to remain unchanged  The figure is expected to decrease Note on estimates The valuation of a property depends on many specific factors, including conditions of the lease, the tenant, and the property condition. The estimates cannot be used uncritically in the valuation of one specific property but can serve as input related to the valuation. Reproduction or citation only with acknowledgment of source. While every effort has been made to ensure that the information provided is accurate, EDC International Poul Erik accepts no liability for errors.

Market Rent All rents are headline rents, in other words, the contracted gross rent receivable, which becomes payable after any tenant incentives have expired. Market rent estimates are expressed in DKK/sq m/year. It is assumed that all properties are let at market-conform conditions.

* Area specifications Copenhagen City = Copenhagen K ex. harbour areas. Østerbro, Frederiksberg og Gentofte = Østerbro, Frederiksberg and Gentofte municipalities.

Harbour area (Nordhavn, Kalvebod Brygge & Tuborg Havn) = Areas located along Copenhagen’s harbour.

Remaining Copenhagen = Vesterbro, Nørrebro, Nordvest, Valby, Sydhavn (ex. harbour areas), Brønshøj, Husum, Vanløse, København S (ex. Ørestad and harbour areas), Kastrup and Dragør municipalities.

Western suburbs = Hvidovre, Rødovre, Glostrup, Brøndby, Albertslund, Vallensbæk, Ishøj, Høje Taastrup, Ballerup and Herlev municipalities.

Northern suburbs = Lyngby, Holte, Farum, Birkerød, Gladsaxe, Rudersdal and Furesø municipalities.

North Zealand = Gribskov, Helsingør, Allerød, Hillerød, Egedal, Fredensborg, Halsnæs and Hørsholm municipalities.

East Zealand = Greve, Køge, Lejre, Roskilde and Solrød municipalities.

West Zealand = Holbæk, Kalundborg, Odsherred, Ringsted, Slagelse and Sorø municipalities.

South Zealand = Faxe, Næstved, Stevns and Vordingborg municipalities.

Lolland, Falster and Møn = Guldborgsund and Lolland municipalities.

Other Funen = All municipalities at Funen ex. Odense.

Other South Jutland = Billund, Fanø, Haderslev, Tønder, Varde, Vejen and Aabenraa municipalities.

West Jutland = Skive, Struer, Holstebro, Thisted, Morsø and Ringkøbing-Skjern 14 municipalities.

Improve your decisions by using data-based analyses As an investor, it is crucial to approach an investment objectively. With analyses from EDC Poul Erik Bech, we provide you with the opportunity to do just that by ensuring that your investment is based on a solid data foundation. EDC Poul Erik Bech Research offers area-specific analyses for the entire country that can be tailored to your specific needs.

Additionally, we provide in-depth analyses of population trends, housing supply, transaction volume, and more, which can help you as an investor to make the right decisions based on a solid knowledge foundation.

If you have questions, you are more than welcome to contact us:

Joseph Alberti Head of Research

Niclas Holm Senior Research Analyst

joal@edc.dk +45 5858 7467

niho@edc.dk +45 5858 8784

2023 DIN BY

CITYFACT

2023

DANSK VERSION

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