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Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

I

U N I V E R S I T Y O F U TA H

In Par tnership with the Salt Lake Chamber


KEM C. GARDNER POLIC Y INSTITUTE

We are an honest broker of

INFORMED RESEARCH that guides

INFORMED DISCUSSIONS and leads to

INFORMED D E C I S I O N Sâ„¢


January 2019

U

tah spent most of the past 12 months at the top of the U.S. economic leaderboard. Strong job growth, low unemployment, rising wages, and net in-migration fuel an economy that just keeps on going. Informed observers will recognize Utah’s prosperity, but also see the nuance, intrigue, challenge, and even wonder in Utah’s economic script.

Utah Informed takes readers behind the curtains and shares fascinating details about Utah and the nation. For example… n

How did South Dakota surpass Utah’s fertility rate? A precipitous rise in teen pregnancies.

n

Why aren’t Utah sales tax revenues keeping pace with economic growth? An aging population that spends a greater share of their income on health care.

n

Why is Utah’s per capita water consumption so high? We are the second driest state with low water rates.

n

Who has the most engaged NBA fans? Utah, of course.

In addition to sharing compelling trends and ideas, in this fourth edition of Utah Informed we give a nod on the cover to our Institute’s home, the Thomas S. Monson Center. The beautiful neoclassical mansion on South Temple Street was home to Enos A. Wall, the first entrepreneur to mine copper in Utah’s Bingham Canyon (today mined by Rio Tinto). Copper, which is known for its conductivity, provides a useful metaphor for the way Utah Informed transmits light to those who study it. The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute serves as an honest broker of informed research, that guides informed discussions, and leads to INFORMED DECISIONS™. We hope this edition of Utah Informed will help you make wise decisions in 2019.

Thanks for your interest,

Natalie Gochnour

Taylor Randall

Derek Miller

Director, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Dean, David Eccles School of Business

President & CEO, Salt Lake Chamber

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

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Contents Current Affairs

Utah Economy

Words and phrases to know in 2019. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Discoveries in 2018. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Top Google searches in the United States in 2018. . . . . . Voter turnout rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Political affiliations of U.S. Congress and Utah Legislature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5 6 7 8 9

Recession Watch Duration of United States economic expansions. . . . . . 10 Federal budget balance as a percent of GDP. . . . . . . . . . 11 A history of yield curve inversion as a recession warning. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Extra yield on long over short-dated treasuries . . . . . . . 13 Animal Spirits Index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Utah CEOutlook Confidence Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

2

Industry-adjusted state-to-U.S. employment growth ratios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Unemployment and other measures of labor underutilization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Hachman Index of economic diversity, 2017. . . . . . . . . . 18 Average annual employment growth in the life sciences industry, 2012 to 2017. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Annual employment growth and decline in Utah’s counties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Construction jobs as a percent of all Utah jobs. . . . . . . . 21 Percent of Utah families with income below poverty status by educational attainment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 The nation’s largest commuting zones with most intergenerational mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Utah System of Higher Education graduation rates, 2017. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Female share of the workforce in STEM and other occupations, Fall 2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Public elementary and secondary schools pupil-teacher ratios, FY 2017. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Utah public elementary and secondary school pupil-teacher ratios, Fall 2017. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Total miles driven per driving-age population . . . . . . . . 28 Utah Jazz player salaries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Economic Development Qualified opportunity zones in the West. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Qualified opportunity zones in Utah. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 High-growth company density. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Startup density. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Where the state can help rural Utah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Economic Development Logic Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Utah Jazz 3-point shots. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

Public Finance Vicious tax cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Utah sales tax base as a percent of personal income. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 Composition of state funds for higher education in Utah. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Number of services, by category, subject to state sales and use taxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Sales tax rates and total tax burden. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 State government employment per 1,000 population. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 State of Utah budget stress test.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Energy and Environment Mountain states’ average annual precipitation, 2013–2017. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Frequency of floods and flash floods in Utah. . . . . . . . . . 45 Residential water bill for 30,000 gallons of water across the state. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 Mountain states’ domestic water consumption. . . . . . . 47 Energy industry employment as a percent of total employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 Utah energy production and consumption. . . . . . . . . . . 49 Renewable energy electricity generation in Utah. . . . . 50 Salt Lake County average days per week in each air quality category . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

Health Health ranking. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 Life expectancy at birth by Utah small area, 2012–2016. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 County uninsured rates, 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Average annual growth in Utah’s family income and health insurance costs, 2006-2016. . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Percent of adult Utahns in fair or poor health by income, 2016. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Percent of kindergarteners with an exemption from one or more vaccines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57

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Contents Real Estate and Construction

Utah Demographics

States with most growth in detached single-family home permits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 Ratio of the median value of owner-occupied housing units to median household income, 2017 . . . . . . . . . . 59 Composition of building permits for residential units by housing type, 2000–2017. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 Wasatch Front commerical real estate under construction by property type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 Utah median monthly mortgage payment and 30-year mortgage rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 Mortgage debt balance per capita, 2017. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Growth in mortgage debt balance per capita, 2016-2017. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64

Utah population components of change. . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Total fertility rate, 2017. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 Birth rates by age of mother, 2017. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 Utah’s foreign born population. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 Salt Lake City population. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 Median age in Utah and the United States. . . . . . . . . . . . 76 Cumulative change in Utah persons per household since 1920. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 Cities with the most- and least-engaged NBA fans. . . . 78 Utah Jazz Facebook followers by country . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 The whole point. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80

Travel and Tourism Visitor spending as a percent of state GDP, 2017. . . . . . 65 Private leisure and hospitality sector jobs in Utah’s counties, 2017. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 County Transient Room Tax revenue. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 International visitor spending by country, 2016-2017. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 Utah national park and monument indicators. . . . . . . . 69 Utah skier/snowboarder place of origin and stats. . . . . 70

Editor-in-chief: Juliette Tennert 4

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Words and phrases to know in 2019

n 2.12 – Utah’s current total fertility rate (TFR), the number of children who would be born per woman based on the current schedule of age-specific fertility rates: At 2.12, Utah’s TFR is at an all-time low and approaching the replacement rate. n CA·VU – ceiling and visibility unlimited, a military term indicating an obstruction-free sky, coined by President George H. Bush to mean a clear and visible future where people can “easily identify the objectives and threats” in their paths: Seeking CAVU.

n in·​land port – crossroads of the west fulfilled: Utah’s inland port will provide custom clearance for Chinese goods. n juu·l​ing – a slang term for the recreational use of a leading brand of electronic cigarettes in the U.S., JUUL: The American Academy of Pediatricians warns that juuling is on the rise, with devastating consequences.

n con·​sum·​able ser·​vice – service for which the identification of the place of consumption is straightforward: The State of Utah does not currently tax many consumable services.

n mis·​in·​for·​ma·​tion – incorrect or misleading information: The distribution of misinformation—and its close cousin, deliberate disinformation—jeopardizes our ability to make informed decisions. Russian troll farms and others propagate falsehoods on Facebook, Twitter, other social media, and by other means. These untruths imperil our ability to prosper.

n em·​pa·​thy – the ability to identify, understand, and share the feelings and perspectives of others: Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella believes that empathy is essential for innovation.

n strike team – a mission-driven, multi-disciplinary, and well-resourced enterprise: The the Utah Coal Country Strike Team will raise incomes in Carbon and Emery counties.

n fourth in·​dus·​tri·​al rev·​o·​lu·​tion – mobile internet, Internet of Things, additive manufacturing, and other innovations that will change our lives: The 4th Industrial Revolution will require policy innovations.

n YIM·BY – yes in my backyard, a movement that lays the groundwork for more housing construction for people of all income levels: Can YIMBY overcome NIMBY?

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Current Affairs

5


Discoveries in 2018 n Plague – The sample of the oldest-known strain of the pneumonic plague, perhaps the world’s first major pandemic, was found in remains in a 5,000-year-old tomb in Sweden.

n Ancient Art – A 73,000-year-old drawing was found in a stone in South Africa. The unintelligible but deliberate lines are now called the earliest drawing ever found.

n Christmas Salamander – A newly-discovered aquatic salamander has Christmas-tree-shaped growths from its head, which it uses to breathe underwater.

n Shellless Turtle – A 228 million-year-old fossil revealed turtles once lived without a shell; scientists are now studying how they evolved.

n Saw Wasp – A species of wasp with a saw along its back was discovered. Scientists speculate it uses it to cut its way out of whatever other creature its parents laid its egg in. n Hunchback Shrimp – A round-back and shell-less shrimp discovered in the Antarctic was named Epimeria quasimodo after the title character of “The Hunchback of Notre Dame.” n Extraterrestrial Communications – Repeating radio burst deep in space flashes sporadically, making some researchers wonder if it’s a black hole or an advanced civilization. n Ancient Wealth – An excavation in where Tenea, Greece once thrived revealed pottery, coins, and marble-clad homes, showing ancient Teneans were far wealthier than previously thought. n The Thunderclap – A fossil of the world’s largestknown animal were uncovered. The “Ledumahadi mafube” or “giant thunderclap at dawn” weighed about 26,000 pounds and lived in Argentina 200 million years ago.

6

Current Affairs

n Alzheimers – San Francisco scientists discovered a gene that causes people with it to be far more susceptible to Alzheimer’s. n Blindness Cure – Using a patch of stem cells over the eye, scientists returned the sight of two blind patients. n Martian Photos – NASA’s InSight, a newly landed Mars explorer, sent back clear images of Mars’ landscape, perhaps the next step in unlocking the Red Planet’s past. n Exomoon – Astronomers discovered what may be the first known exomoon (moon outside the solar system). n Gene Editing – A Chinese scientist claimed to have produced “gene-edited babies,” which would be the world’s first. n Uterus Donor Success – A successful birth resulted from a uterus donated by a deceased woman for the first time.

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Signs of our times Top Google searches in the United States in 2018

All Searches

News

1) World Cup 2) Hurricane Florence 3) Mac Miller 4) Kate Spade 5) Anthony Bourdain 6) Black Panther 7) Mega Millions Results 8) Stan Lee 9) Demi Lovato 10) Election Results

1) World Cup 2) Hurricane Florence 3) Mega Millions 4) Election Results 5) Hurricane Michael 6) Kavanaugh Confirmation 7) Florida Shooting 8) Royal Wedding 9) Olympic Medal Count 10) Government Shutdown

People

What is...?

1) Demi Lovato 2) Meghan Markle 3) Brett Kavanaugh 4) Logan Paul 5) KhloĂŠ Kardashian 6) Eminem 7) Urban Meyer 8) Ariana Grande 9) Rick Ross 10) Cardi B

1) What is Bitcoin? 2) What is racketeering? 3) What is DACA? 4) What is a government shutdown? 5) What is Good Friday? 6) What is Prince Harry’s last name? 7) What is Fortnite? 8) What is a duck boat? 9) What is a Yanny Laurel? 10) What is a nationalist?

Source: Google

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Current Affairs

7


A new high! Utah voter turnout exceeds US in 2018 midterm elections Voter turnout rates Counted ballots as a percent of total voting-eligible population

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006 Utah

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

United States

Source: United States Elections Project

8

Current Affairs

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Midterm outcomes Political affiliations of incoming U.S. Congress and Utah Legislature

116th United States Congress

63rd Utah Legislature

100 435

Senate

• • •

53 Republicans Up from 51 in 115th Congress 45 Democrats Down from 47 in 115th Congress 2 Independents

House

• •

199 Republicans Down from 241 in 115th Congress 235 Democrats Up from 194 in 115th Congress

29

Senate

• •

23 Republicans Down from 24 in 62nd Legislature 6 Democrats Up from 5 in 62nd Legislature

75

House

• •

59 Republicans Down from 62 in 62nd Legislature 16 Democrats Up from 13 in 62nd Legislature

1 Disputed North Carolina 9th district

*Party division totals are based on November Election Day results. The actual party division of a particular Congress often changes due to the death or resignation of a Member, contested elections, or changes in Member party affiliations. Sources: House.gov; Senate.gov

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Source: le.utah.gov

Current Affairs

9


Slated for the longest expansion on record Duration of United States economic expansions Lengh of expansion and average annual job growth

October 1945 October 1949 May 1954

Expansion Start

April 1958

37 months (5.1%) 45 months (4.3%) 39 months (2.5%) 24 months (3.6%) 106 months (3.2%)

February 1961 November 1970 March 1975

36 months (3.4%) 58 months (3.5%) 92 months (2.8%)

December 1982

120 months (2.0%)

March 1991 November 2001

73 months (0.9%) 113 months (1.5%)

July 2009

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of National Bureau of Economic Research and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data

10

Recession Watch

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Economy expands, federal budget deteriorates Federal budget balance as a percent of GDP

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%

-6%

-8%

-10%

-12% 1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996 2000 Year

2004

2008

2012

2016

2020

Periods of Recession

Note: Balance is the 4-quarter moving sum; Q4 2018 and beyond are forecast. Source: Wells Fargo Securities

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Recession Watch

11


Yielding the yield A history of yield curve inversion as a recession warning Since pre-recession peak in 2005 Date of inversion

Months to recession

S&P 500 performance over next 12 months

February 20, 2006

13.2%

22

37.1%

September 10, 1998

12.2%

May 29, 1989

September 1, 1980

14

0.9%

July 4, 1978

30

11

7.7%

18

February 12, 1973

- 21.6%

9

December 19, 1968

- 15.3%

12

September 8, 1966

January 12, 1966

24.3%

- 9.3%

False Alarm

False Alarm

Note: Inversion date is when the 3-month Treasury yield rises above the 10-year yield. Source: Refinitiv, as published in the Wall Street Journal, December 6, 2018

12

Recession Watch

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Inversion season Extra yield on long over short-dated treasuries

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

Jun 18

Jun 16

Jun 14

Jun 12

Jun 10

Jun 08

Jun 06

Jun 04

Jun 02

Jun 00

Jun 98

Jun 96

Jun 94

Jun 92

Jun 90

Jun 88

Jun 86

Jun 84

Jun 82

Jun 80

Jun 78

Jun 76

-3

10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Recession Watch

13


Do you believe in spirits? Animal Spirits Index

2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5

1967

1973

1979

1985

1991

Year

1997

2003

2009

2015

Periods of Recession

Note: Index includes S&P 500 index, Conference Board consumer confidence index, yield spread, VIX index, and economic policy uncertainty index; the Animal Spirits Index seeks to “shed light on economic agents’ expectations about the near-term economic outlook.” Source: Wells Fargo Securities

14

Recession Watch

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Utah CEOs less optimistic Utah CEOutlook Confidence Index What is your expectation for the economy six months from now?

Index 70

66.07 65

61.67

61.36

61.43

60 59.21

58.75 55.47

55

50.00

50 17-Q1

17-Q2

17-Q3

17-Q4

18-Q1

18-Q2

18-Q3

18-Q4

Source: Salt Lake Chamber CEOutlook composite score

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Recession Watch

15


Holding on to #1 for job growth in current expansion Industry-adjusted state-to-U.S. employment growth ratios Growth since end of recession, 2009-2017

WA 1.26 OR 1.03

MT 0.70

ND 1.21

ID 1.07 WY 0.51

CA 1.46

NV 1.14

AZ 1.15

MN 0.72

SD 0.70 NE 0.65

UT 1.57

CO 1.32

NM 0.23

KS 0.53 OK 0.53

TX 1.49

AK 0.34

ME 0.41 WI 0.55

IA 0.45 MO 0.53 AR 0.65

NY 1.01

MI 0.69

IN IL 0.64 0.68

OH 0.60

PA 0.65

WV 0.00 VA KY 0.84 0.69 NC TN 1.15 1.02 SC 1.27 GA MS AL 0.67 0.66 1.23

LA 0.58

V T 0.54 NH 0.65 MA 1.16 RI 0.71 C T 0.50 NJ 0.75 MD 0.83 DE 0.93

< 0.50 0.50 - 0.79 0.80 - 0.99 1.00 - 1.29 1.30 +

FL 1.44

HI 0.91

Note: Ratio of actual employment growth to the employment growth the state would have experienced if its industries grew at the same rate as those of the rest of the nation. Numbers above 1 indicate outperforming the nation. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

16

Utah Economy

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Unemployment limbo Unemployment and other measures of labor underutilization Current and previous economic peak Involuntary Part-time Rate Discouraged/Marginally Attached Worker Unemployment Rate Headline Unemployment Rate

8.3% 7.8%

6.2%

5.0%

2.4%

2.8% 2.9%

0.9% 0.9%

1.9% 0.6% 0.5% 4.6%

4.0%

3.2%

2.6%

Q4 2007

Q3 2018 Utah

Q4 2007

Q3 2018 United States

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Utah Economy

17


Strength in diversity Hachman Index of Economic Diversity, 2017

WA 87.7 OR 89.1

MT 80.1

ND 51.1

ID 79.2 WY 25.1

CA 93.1

NV 64.7

UT 96.9

AZ 95.7

MN 94.6

SD 65.2 NE 69.5

CO 93.6

NM 62.5

KS 90.3 OK 57.7

TX 76.3

AK 31.9

ME 91.1 WI 92.3

IA 74.8 MO 96.8 AR 88.6

NY 79.9

MI 92.2

IN IL 95.6 76.0

OH 93.9

PA 95.5

WV 54.2 VA KY 89.1 90.4 NC TN 92.5 91.9 SC 90.9 GA MS AL 86.8 91.1 95.2

LA 85.6

V T 90.9 NH 95.0 MA 90.0 RI 87.3 C T 91.9 NJ 93.4 MD 87.4 DE 53.5

< 65.0 65.0 - 79.9 80.0 - 89.9 90.0 - 94.9 95.0 +

FL 92.0

HI 71.8

Note: Value of 100 would mean that state’s economic activity is distributed exactly like the nation’s; more diverse economies have a higher index score. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP data

18

Utah Economy

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Life sciences boom (bloom?) in Utah Average annual employment change in the life sciences industry, 2012 to 2017 20 states with most life sciences jobs

WA 2.2% MN 2.0%

CA 1.9%

UT 5.0%

WI 1.0%

IN IL 1.0% -0.2%

CO 3.0%

NY 0.3%

MI 1.6% OH 0.9%

TX 2.4%

NJ -0.7%

NC 1.9%

TN 1.3%

AZ 2.2%

PA 0.1%

MA 2.4%

GA 4.4%

FL 2.2%

decline 0.0% - 1.4% 1.5% - 2.9% 3.0% + Not a top 20 state

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Utah Economy

19


Job Tetris, growth and decline in Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s counties Annual employment growth and decline in Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s counties Beaver Box Elder Cache Carbon Daggett Davis Duchesne Emery Garfield Grand Iron Juab Kane Millard Morgan Piute Rich Salt Lake San Juan Sanpete Sevier Summit Tooele Uintah Utah Wasatch Washington Wayne Weber 2009

2010 Growth

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Decline

Note: 2018 through second quarter. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data

20

Utah Economy

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Construction employment back to pre-bubble levels Construction jobs as a percent of all Utah jobs 9.0% 20-year average = 6.5%

8.3%

8.0%

6.8%

7.0%

6.0%

5.4%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

2018e

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

0.0%

1998

1.0%

Note: e = estimate Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Survey data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Utah Economy

21


The importance of educational attainment, a family perspective Percent of Utah families with income below poverty status by educational attainment of householder

15.0%

6.7% 4.9%

4.9%

2.8%

All families

Less than high school graduate

High school graduate Some college, (includes equivalency) Associates degree

Bachelor's degree or higher

Married-couple families

46.6%

29.9% 25.5%

24.2%

22.4% 12.5%

All families

12.1%

Less than high school graduate

Female householder, no spouse present

11.6%

High school graduate Some college, (includes equivalency) Associates degree

10.4%

6.9%

Bachelor's degree or higher

Male householder, no spouse present

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau 5-year 2013-2017 American Community Survey data

22

Utah Economy

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Families rising The nation’s largest commuting zones with most intergenerational mobility Average income percentile at age 30 of those whose parent’s income was in the 25th percentile 46.2

Salt Lake City 45.2

Pittsburgh 44.7

San Jose

44.6

Boston San Francisco

44.4

San Diego

44.3

Minneapolis

44.2

Manchester

44.2

Newark

44.1

New York

43.8 43.4

Providence

43.4

Los Angeles

43.2

Seattle

43.2

Washington DC

42.8

Houston

42.7

Sacramento

42.4

Bridgeport

42.3

Fort Worth

42.2

Denver

42.0

Buffalo 41.5

Miami Portland

41.3

Fresno San Antonio Philadelphia

41.3 41.1 40.8

Source: Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Patrick Kline, and Emmanuel Saez “Where is the Land of Opportunity? The Geography of Intergenerational Mobility in the United States”

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Utah Economy

23


Women finish what they start (and improve higher education graduation rates) Utah System of Higher Education (USHE) graduation rates, 2017 67% 50%

47%

42%

48% 34%

33%

30% 22%

All USHE Schools

University Utah State Weber State Southern of Utah University University Utah University

Snow College

Dixie State Utah Valley Salt Lake University University Community College

All Students 68% 67% 58%

53% 46%

51% 44%

36%

40%

39%

36% 38% 28%

25%

All USHE Schools Female

University Utah State Weber State Southern of Utah University University Utah University Male

Snow College

34% 25% 25%

19%

Dixie State Utah Valley Salt Lake University University Community College

Note: Graduation rates are measured by the percentage of first-time, full-time students who graduate within 150% of the published time for the program (six years for a four-year baccalaureate degree and three years for an associate degree). Source: Utah System of Higher Education

24

Utah Economy

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


The STEM gap Female share of the workforce in STEM and other occupations, 2017

48.2% 46.0%

29.3%

20.6%

Utah STEM Occupations

United States Other Occupations

Note: STEM = science, technology, engineering, and mathematics Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Utah Economy

25


Larger classroom sizes in the West Utah public elementary and secondary school pupil-teacher ratios, Fall 2015 United States = 16.0

WA 18.8 OR 20.9

MT 14.0 ID 18.7 WY 12.4

CA 23.9

NV 20.6

CO 17.4

NM 15.5

SD 13.9

KS 12.4 OK 16.3

TX 15.3

AK 16.9

ME 12.2

MN 15.4

NE 13.6

UT 22.9

AZ 23.1

ND 11.8

WI 14.9

IA 14.2 MO 13.6

IN IL 15.7 18.1

AR 13.7

NY 13.2

MI 18.2 OH 16.9

PA 14.2

WV 14.1 VA KY 14.2 16.4 NC TN 15.5 15.1 SC 15.2 GA MS AL 15.1 18.2 15.5

LA 12.3

V T 10.5 NH 12.4 MA 13.4 RI 13.4 C T 12.3 NJ 12.3 MD 14.8 DE 15.0 DC 12.4

< 13.0 13.0 - 14.9 15.0 - 16.9 17.0 - 19.9

FL 15.3

HI 15.5

20.0 +

Note: The pupil-teacher ratio includes teachers for students with disabilities and other special teachers, while these teachers are generally excluded from class size calculations; ratios reflect totals reported by states and differ from totals reported for schools or school districts; data are most recent available for national comparisons. Source: U.S. Department of Education National Center for Education Statistics Common Core of Data

26

Utah Economy

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


QAMO

Provo has the highest student to teacher ratio in the state

AWA R D W I N N E R

Why student-teacher ratios matter

Utah public elementary and secondary school pupil-teacher ratios, FY 2017 Utah average = 21.8

Higher amounts of engagement and retention

Districts with highest ratios Provo

25.2

Morgan

24.8

Alpine

24.6

Davis

24.0 23.6

Cache Uintah

23.3

Juab

23.2

Nebo

23.1

Box Elder

23.0

Jordan

23.0

More individualized attention Accommodation of different learning styles Submitted by David Eccles School of Business QAMO (Quantitative Analysis of Markets & Organiztions) students Jessie Rabe and Jonathan White.

Districts with lowest ratios Kane

17.6 17.2

San Juan

16.6

Park City Grand

15.9

Garfield

15.9

Rich

14.2 13.9

Wayne 12.4

Tintic Piute Daggett

10.2 10.2

Note: District average = 19.8; Charter school average = 22.1 Source: Utah State Board of Education

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Jessie Rabe

Jonathan White

Utah Economy

27


Utahns behind the wheel Total miles driven per driving-age population

14,500 United States

Utah

14,000

13,500

13,000

12,500

12,000

11,500

11,000

10,500

10,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Note: Driving age population aged 15 and above. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Federal Highway Administration and U.S. Census Bureau data

28

Utah Economy

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Jazzonomics Historical Player Salaries

Utah Jazz player salaries Annual and cumulative since 1985 $120

$1.40

$1.20

$100

$1.00  $80

$60  $0.60

Billions

Millions

$0.80

$40  $0.40  $20

$0.20

85‐86 86‐87 87‐88 88‐89 89‐90 90‐91 91‐92 92‐93 93‐94 94‐95 95‐96 96‐97 97‐98 98‐99 99‐00 00‐01 01‐02 02‐03 03‐04 04‐05 05‐06 06‐07 07‐08 08‐09 09‐10 10‐11 11‐12 12‐13 13‐14 14‐15 15‐16 16‐17 17‐18

$0

Annual Player Salaries

$0.00

Cumulative Player Salary

Source: Utah Jazz

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Utah Economy

29


Land of opportunity Qualified opportunity zones in the West

Opportunity Zones Part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 Economically-distressed communities designated by the governor of each state for preferential tax treatment to spur new investment. Investors can defer capital gains until sale or exchange, through 2026 10% exclusion of deferred gains for investments held longer than 5 years 15% exclusion of deferred gains for investments held longer than 7 years 100% exclusion of deferred gains for investments held longer than 10 years

Opportunity Zones (format as c hec klis t bullet points )

Source: U.S. Department of Treasury Community P art of the T ax C uts and J obs ADevelopment c t of 2017 Financial Institutions Fund Opportunity Zones Resources and Internal Revenue Service Opportunity Zones Frequently Asked Questions E c onomic ally-dis tres s ed c ommunities des ignated by the G overnor of eac h s tate

30

for preferential tax treatment to s pur new inves tment Inves tors c an defer c apital gains until s ale or exc hange, through 2026 Economic Development Kemtments C. Gardner Policythan Institute 10% ex c lus ion of deferred gains for inves held longer 5 years 15% ex c lus ion of deferred gains for inves tments held longer than 7 years 100% exc lus ion of deferred gains for inves tments held longer than 10 years

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


How will Utah leverage opportunity zones? Qualified opportunity zones in Utah

CACHE

BOX ELDER

RICH

WEBER

WEBER DAVIS

MORGAN SUMMIT

DAGGETT

MORGAN

SALT LAKE TOOELE

DAVIS

WASATCH UINTAH

UTAH

DUCHESNE

JUAB

CARBON

SANPETE

MILLARD

EMERY

GRAND

TOOELE

SALT LAKE

SEVIER BEAVER

IRON

PIUTE

WAYNE

GARFIELD SAN JUAN

WASHINGTON

UTAH

KANE

Sources: Esri, HERE, Garmin, USGS, Intermap, INCREMENT P, NRCan, Esri Japan, METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), Esri Korea,

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Economic Development

31


Look at us grow! High-growth company density Number of private businesses with at least $2 million in annual revenue reaching three years of 20 percent annual revenue growth, normalized by total business population

WA 87.9 OR 70.0

MT 26.2 ID 38.3 WY 12.9

CA 88.9

NV 45.3

UT 174.8

AZ 101.6

CO 96.9

NM 16.2

ND 39.9

MN 73.7

SD 42.0 NE 42.6 KS 61.9 OK 30.7

TX 82.8

AK 7.3

ME 28.7 WI 39.9

IA 32.7

NY 67.1

MI 57.3

IN IL 76.6 55.1

OH 85.1

PA 64.2

WV 31.7 VA KY 208.3 30.8 NC TN 69.9 71.2 AR SC 17.9 67.7 GA MS AL 19.7 66.0 124.5 LA 40.9

MO 47.4

V T 12.6 NH 67.2 MA 100.0 RI 19.2 C T 37.9 NJ 73.4 MD 102.8 DE 76.2

< 50.0 50.0 - 74.9 75.0 - 99.9

FL 77.0

HI 26.8

100.0 +

Source: Kauffman Foundation 2017 Kauffman Index of Growth Entrepreneurship State Trends

32

Economic Development

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Start me up Startup density Startups per 1,000 firm population

WA 81.5 OR 77.0

MT 68.5 ID 80.2 WY 70.9

CA 89.6

NV 108.4

CO 88.2

NM 65.2

SD 62.6

KS 64.8 OK 72.9

TX 90.9

AK 69.9

ME 62.8

MN 64.2

NE 61.7

UT 91.0

AZ 85.8

ND 84.7

HI 62.7

WI 59.1

IA 54.7 MO 95.5 AR 66.6

NY 83.3

MI 64.4

IN IL 69.1 61.6

PA 60.6

OH 57.4

WV 51.1 VA KY 73.7 76.3 NC TN 74.7 69.3 SC 73.3 GA MS AL 64.1 63.4 82.4

LA 64.8 FL 98.7

V T 58.0 NH 58.3 MA 66.9 RI 60.0 C T 58.9 NJ 76.1 MD 68.6 DE 77.0

< 70.0 70.0 - 79.9 80.0 - 89.9 90.0 +

Note: Startup businesses here are defined as firms less than one-year-old employing at least one person besides the owner. Source: Kauffman Foundation 2017 Kauffman Index of Startup Activity State Trends

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Economic Development

33


Rural economic development incentives time for an update? Where the state can help rural Utah Items identified in rural county economic development plans

18

11 Infrastructure

Incentive Update

8

7

7

Economic Development Capacity Building

Recruitment/ Investment

Regulation/ Policy

7

7

6

6

3

3

2

Inter-Government & Business Relationships

Transportation

Higher Education Funding & Alligning

Workforce Development

Housing Quality/ Affordability

State Job Relocation

Energy/ Natural Resources

Note: Circle size and number identify count of plans mentioning each item. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of rural county economic development plans submitted to the Utah Governorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Office of Economic Development

34

Economic Development

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Some considerations... Economic Development Logic Model

Outcomes Intial/Baseline Conditions Economic Conditions/ Business Cycle (regional, national, global) Industry/Cluster Conditions, Competitiveness & Levels of Definition/ Development Existing Regional Networks & Innovation Ecosystems

Outputs

Capacity Outcomes (Shorter-term)

Inputs

(Program Activities)

Portfolio of Programs

Facilities & Equipment

Product, Production Processes, & Business Capacities

EDA Funding

Events, Networking & Referrals

Markets & Business Networks

Other Funding

R&D & Commercialization Support

Innovation, Technology Transfer, & Commercialization

Client/Participant Resources

Existing Workforce Skills & Knowledge

Financing Support

Financing & Investment

Mentoring, Coaching, & Training

Human Capital & Workforce

Planning & Institutional Development

Organizational Capacity

Realized Outcomes (Longer-term)

Regional-Level: • Establishment Growth/Survival • Job Growth • Earnings/Wage Growth • Revenue/Sales Growth • Opportunities/ Equity • Increased Share of Cluster Activity

Source: U.S. Economic Development Administration

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Economic Development

35


You miss 100% of the shots you donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t take Utah Jazz 3-point shots Attempts and makes

2,425

2,500 Attempts Makes

Quin Synder Coach

2,000

1,500

1,000

887

500

185 59 2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

0

Source: Basketballreference.com

36

Economic Development

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Can the cycle be broken? Vicious tax cycle

Tax Base Gets Narrower and Narrower

Increased Pressure for Exemptions and Deductions

Insufficient Tax Revenue

Pressure to Increase Taxes

Source: Utah Governorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Office of Management and Budget

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Public Finance

37


Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s narrowing sales tax base Utah sales tax base as a percent of personal income

70%

67%

60%

50%

42% 40%

35%

30%

20%

2025

2020

2015

2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

0%

1980

10%

Note: 2018 and beyond are forecasted. Source: Utah Governorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Office of Management and Budget and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

38

Public Finance

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


No more fiscal wiggle room... Composition of state funds for higher education in Utah

35%

31% 40%

34% 2006 66%

73%

77%

68%

62%

66%

40%

54%

58%

47%

35%

35% 2000 65%

60%

2005 65%

34% 1999 66%

28%

80%

39%

7% 1998 93%

14%

6% 1997 94%

100%

3%

Education Fund and General Fund contributions

Education Fund

2020 3% 97%

2019 4% 96%

2018 27%

2017 32%

2016 23%

2015 38%

2014 46%

2013 42%

2012 65%

2011 69%

2010 60%

2009 61%

2008 9%

2007 34%

2004 86%

2003 97%

2002 72%

0%

2001 53%

91%

20%

General Fund

Note: Fiscal years; 2019 and 2020 figures are based on Governor Herbert’s budget recommendations. Source: Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Public Finance

39


Considerations for broadening the base Number of services, by category, subject to state sales and use taxes Maximum, median, and Utah counts WA 44

HI, DE 34

HI, WA NM, DE 20

Computer Services

Business Services

Personal Services

Utilities

1

Utah 0

4

Utah 5

8 6

0

Utah 0 Other Services

5

Utah 11

Utah 12

Utah 15

Fabrication, Repair & Installation

Utah 7

7

Utah 6

HI, WA NM, DE 9

Professional Services

10

HI, WA, NM, SD, TX 8

DE 19

HI, NM, WI 14

Admissions/ Amusements

Utah 8

WA, DE, SD, CT, TX, OH, PA 10 8

Online Services

HI, WA NM, AR 16

Note: Total services equal to maximum taxed in all categories but Admissions/Amusements (15 services) and Other Services (47 services); the most recent counts for AZ, LA, MD, MA, NM, and OK are from 2007; all other counts are from 2017. Source: Federation of Tax Administrators Sales Taxation of Services Survey; Medians calculated by Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

40

Public Finance

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s all relative Sales tax rates and total tax burden

Combined State and Local Sales Tax Rates

All State and Local Taxes as a Percent of Personal Income

WA 9.2%

WA 9.2% MT no sales tax

OR no sales tax

ID 6.0%

NV 8.1%

UT 6.8%

CA 8.6%

AZ 8.4%

MT 9.1% OR 10.2%

WY 5.4%

CO 7.5%

NM 7.8%

Combined State & Local Sales Tax Rates

NV 9.8% CA 11.1%

ID 9.1%

UT 9.3%

AZ 9.0%

WY 8.7%

CO 9.0%

NM 9.8%

All State and Local Taxes as a Percent of Personal Income

Note: Tax rates are as of 2018 and tax burden estimates as of 2015, the most recent comparable data available; severance tax collections are excluded from tax burden analysis. Source: Tax Foundation and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau Survey of State and Local Finances data and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Public Finance

41


Gaining efficiencies in state government State government employment per 1,000 population

8.9

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

6.6

Note: Excludes higher education. Source: Utah Governorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Office of Management and Budget

42

Public Finance

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


State of Utah budget stress test State budget could withstand stagflation and moderate recessions; another Great Recession would be more challenging Hypothetical budget gaps vs. reserve availability as a percent of state fund appropriations Total: 57.3% Total: 50.9%

Year 5: 9.3%

2.7% Total: 39.4%

8.0% cumulative: 48.2%

Year 4: 13.1%

Year 5: 6.2% Year 4: 9.4%

19.0% Year 3: 14.7% cumulative: 40.2%

Year 3: 10.6%

Total: 12.5% Year 4: 3.0%

Year 2: 14.5%

Year 3: 6.7%

Year 2: 10.2% Year 1: 3.0% Value at Risk, Adverse Scenario

17.1% cumulative: 21.2%

Year 1: 5.6%

Year 2: 5.9%

4.1%

Value at Risk, Severely Adverse Scenario

Year 5: - 3.0% Value at Risk, Stagflation Scenario

Reserves

Year 1: - 0.2% Reserves Accessibility

Very Difficult

Difficult

Somewhat Difficult

Moderately Easy

Easy

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Utah Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Public Finance

43


Pray for rain... Mountain statesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; average annual precipitation, 2013â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2017 Inches per year

Idaho

24.1

19.4

Montana

19.1

Colorado

Wyoming

17.4

14.8

New Mexico

Utah

13.8

11.9

Arizona

10.2

Nevada

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

44

Energy and Environment

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


...but not all at once Frequency of floods and flash floods in Utah 120 Flash Floods Floods 100

80

60

40

20

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

0

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Climatic Data Center

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Energy and Environment

45


Variation in water pricing Residential water bill for 30,000 gallons of water across the state Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

City/District Park City Cedar Hills Washington Terrace Pleasant Grove American Fork Coalville Kane County Draper Riverton Morgan Toquerville North Ogden Saratoga Springs Wellington Pleasant View Fruit Heights Kaysville Salem Alpine Kearns ID Ogden Bluffdale Farmington South Jordan Elk Ridge South Weber Syracuse Vernal Mapleton Price

$ $347.68 $172.76 $151.30 $143.46 $139.80 $130.00 $121.25 $119.50 $119.05 $119.00 $116.21 $115.85 $115.60 $110.33 $108.25 $105.10 $100.05 $98.50 $97.00 $96.55 $94.55 $93.00 $89.55 $88.50 $88.25 $87.10 $87.00 $85.90 $85.50 $84.42

Rank 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60

City/District Wendover Gunnison Sandy West Bountiful West Jordan Midvale Area 3 Roosevelt Lindon South Salt Lake Elwood Magna Ivins Herriman Monticello Manila Richmond South Ogden Aurora Midvale Area 2 Fairview Hurricane Bountiful Mount Pleasant Centerville Santaquin Granger-Hunter ID North Salt Lake Woods Cross Washington Midvale Area 1

$ $84.32 $82.40 $80.94 $80.16 $79.37 $78.91 $78.00 $77.47 $77.25 $77.00 $76.87 $76.55 $76.19 $76.10 $75.25 $75.00 $74.87 $72.80 $72.55 $72.50 $70.00 $68.60 $67.50 $67.00 $66.38 $66.01 $64.70 $63.60 $63.17 $63.13

Rank 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90

City/District Clinton West Point St. George Logan Taylorsville-Bennion ID La Verkin Vineyard Spanish Fork Sunset Provo - Summer Salt Lake City Mona Cedar City Blanding Payson Kanab Heber City North Logan Bona Vista Water Smithfield Orangeville Tremonton Highland Lehi Fillmore Francis Roy Milford Ephraim Ferron

$ $63.00 $62.35 $61.52 $61.50 $61.41 $61.30 $60.84 $59.20 $58.50 $58.49 $58.11 $58.00 $56.20 $56.10 $55.14 $55.00 $54.61 $54.21 $54.17 $53.40 $51.35 $51.25 $49.86 $48.95 $48.50 $47.50 $47.05 $47.00 $46.62 $46.25

Rank 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119

City/District Panguitch Murray Perry Eagle Mountain Clearfield Delta Provo - Winter Springville Brigham City Huntington Orem Beaver Castle Dale Layton Nibley Tooele Wellsville Hyde Park Moab Riverdale Richfield Nephi Grantsville Lewiston Randolph Enoch Oakley Manti Hyrum

$ $46.09 $46.05 $44.50 $44.00 $43.29 $42.10 $41.39 $41.25 $40.96 $40.80 $40.46 $40.20 $40.00 $39.07 $39.00 $37.50 $36.50 $36.00 $36.00 $33.85 $33.50 $33.00 $31.10 $30.94 $30.00 $29.00 $29.00 $28.50 $25.60

Note: Base rates plus the incremental costs for each 1,000 gallons. Source: Utah Governorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Office of Management and Budget

46

Energy and Environment

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Dry but thirsty Mountain statesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; domestic water consumption Gallons per capita per day

184

Idaho

169

Utah

156

Wyoming

145

Arizona

126

Nevada

123

Colorado

106

Montana

New Mexico

81

Source: USGS Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2015

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Energy and Environment

47


Top 20 for energy industry jobs Energy industry employment as a percent of total employment, 2017

WA MT 5.22%

OR 3.85%

ID WY 14.38% NV

CA 4.43%

ND 8.86%

AZ

CO 4.79%

NM 5.56%

MN WI

SD

NE UT 4.22%

ME

KS 4.81% OK 6.57%

TX 6.62%

PA

IA IL

OH

IN

MO

KY

WV 6.32% VA NC

TN AR MS

AK 6.74%

NY

MI 4.23%

AL 4.19%

V T 5.56% NH MA 4.31% RI CT NJ MD DE 4.19% DC

GA

SC 3.88%

LA 6.92% FL

HI

14.5%

3.5%

Source: U.S. Department of Energy

48

Energy and Environment

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Energy is one of our stateâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s many exports Utah energy production and consumption Gigawatt hours

50,000

Net generation Consumption

45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000

2018e

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

0

Note: e = estimate Source: Utah Geological Survey

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Energy and Environment

49


Solar gains momentum Renewable energy electricity generation in Utah, 2017 Percent of total electricity generation

10% 9%

Other Solar Thermal and Photovoltaic Wind

8% 7%

Geothermal United States, Renewable Sources

6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

50

Energy and Environment

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Best air quality is in the fall Salt Lake County average days per week in each air quality category November 2013 to October 2018 0.1

0.03 0.7

1.4

3.0

1.8

2.1 4.2 5.1

3.9

3.9

1.4

Winter (Dec-Feb)

Spring (Mar-May) Unhealthy

Summer (Jun-Aug) Moderate

Fall (Sep-Nov)

Good

Note: Unhealthy air days are characterized by high ozone levels in the summer and high levels of particulate matter in the winter. “Unhealthy” category includes the less severe “unhealthy for sensitive groups” category. Index is based on ozone, particulate matter, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide content. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Energy and Environment

51


Utah 4th healthiest in the nation Health ranking

WA 9 OR 20

MT 22

ND 18

ID 14 WY 26

CA 17

NV 37

UT 4

AZ 31

MN 6

SD 24

KS 25 OK 43

NM 36

TX 34

AK 29

WI 21

IA 15

NE 13 CO 7

ME 23

MO 40 AR 48

NY 10

MI 35

IL 27

OH 39

IN 38 KY 42 TN 45

MS 50

AL 47

WV 46 VA 19 NC 33 SC 44 GA 41

LA 49 FL 32

HI 2

PA 28

VT 3 NH 8 MA 1 RI 11 CT 5 NJ 12 MD 16 DE 30

1-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50

Source: United Health Foundation 2017 Americaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Health Rankings Annual Report

52

Health

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Another way to look at quality of life Life expectancy at birth by Utah small area, 2012â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2016 Rich & Cache Counties (except Logan) - 80.7 Ogden - Downtown 74.8 Farmington/ Centerville 83.1

Box Elder County (except Brigham City) - 80.5 Logan 81.8

Brigham City 75.4

Summit County 81.5

Tooele County 77.8

SLC Glendale 74.4

South Salt Lake 73.2

Daggett, Duchesne & Uintah Counties 77.5

Juab, Millard & Sanpete Counties 79.1

Carbon & Emery Counties 74.7

ProvoNorth/ BYU 82.7 Grand County 79.2

Sevier, Piute & Wayne Counties 77.8 Cedar City 78.5 St George 81.4

Avenues 84.1

Beaver, Garfield, Kane & Iron Counties (except Cedar City) 77.3

Foothill/ UofU 84.5

Red Bottom 4 areas with the shortest life expectancy Green Top 4 areas with the longest life expectancy 73.2 to 76.0 (Shortest Life)

San Juan County 79.1

Washington County (except St George) - 81.0

76.8 to 78.6 79.1 to 81.2

N

81.3 to 84.5 (Longest Life) County Boundary

Note: Life expectancy can be used to gauge the overall health of a community. Source: Utah Department of Health, Center for Health Data and Informatics

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Health

53


Variation in Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s uninsured rates pre-Medicaid expansion County uninsured rates, 2016 Percent of population aged 65 and younger without health insurance 6.5 - 8.1

Box Elder 8.4

Tooele 8.1

Cache Rich 9.3 10.2

Uintah 12.9

Carbon 9.4 Sanpete 12.7 Sevier 10.6 Piute 12.8

Iron 11.9

Washington 11.6

11.9 - 13.9

Wasatch Duchesne 9.5 13.7

Juab 10.2

Beaver 12

10.2 - 11.6

14.7 - 17.1 Weber 9.6 State Rate: 9.7 Morgan Davis 6.7 6.5 Daggett 9.7 Summit 20.5 Salt Lake 10.9

Utah 7.9

Millard 13.1

8.4 - 9.7

Grand 13.9

Emery 8.7

Wayne 13.6 Gar field 14.7

San Juan 17.1

Kane 8.6

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau Small Area Health Insurance Estimates

54

Health

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Harder to keep up Average annual growth in Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s family income and health insurance costs, 2006-2016

Deductibles

Family Income

0.4%

Family Plan

3.9%

Individual Plan

6.4%

Premiums

Family Plan

2.4%

Individual Plan

1.7%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Note: Income is median family income; premiums and deductibles represent average employee contributions and deductibles for private-sector employees enrolled in single and family coverage; data are inflation-adjusted (2016). Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and U.S. Census Bureau Current Population Survey data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Health

55


Income and health, a strong correlation Percent of adult Utahns in fair or poor health by income, 2016

Percent of population

Income

27.7%

<$25,000

14.2%

$25,000 - $49,999

7.2%

$50,000 - $74,999

7.0%

$75,000 +

Note: Each square represents three percent of the adult population (age 18+) with fair of poor general health; data is age-adjusted. Source: Utah Department of Health Office of Public Health Assessment Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System

56

Health

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Vaccination worries Percent of kindergarteners with an exemption from one or more vaccines 2016–17 school year

6.8%

7%

6%

5.1% 5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

MS WV AL LA IN NY CA DC KY DE RI VA MA TN AR MD IA KS NC TX NJ OK NE SC SD CT NM PA OH FL GA HI NH ND MI MT VT NV WA ME AZ UT WI ID OR AK

0.1%

Note: Non-medical exemptions in Utah rose from 3.6 percent in 2009–2010 to 4.9 percent in 2016–2017. Medical exemptions have remained stable at 0.2 percent. Sample designs vary by state. Medical and non-medical exemptions may not be mutually exclusive, and some children may have both exemptions. Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Health

57


Utah leads single-family housing recovery States with most growth in detached single-family home permits Since pre-recession peak in 2005 72%

Utah 68%

Texas 61%

Colorado 57%

Idaho

56%

Washington 49%

US Oregon

44%

Georgia

44% 40%

Florida California Arizona Nevada

37% 35% 34%

Note: Most recent data is for 2017. Source: U.S. Census Bureau

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Real Estate and Construction

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Growth in Utah home values far outpacing income growth Ratio of the median value of owner-occupied housing units to median household income, 2017 United States = 3.5

WA 4.8 OR 5.3

MT 4.3

ND 3.1

ID 4.0 WY 3.5

CA 7.1

NV 4.5

UT 4.0

AZ 3.9

MN 3.3

SD 3.0

NM 3.7

KS 2.7 OK 2.7

TX 2.9

AK 3.7

WI 3.0

IA 2.5

NE 2.6 CO 5.0

ME 3.4

MO 2.9

IL 3.1

OH 2.7

IN 2.6

KY 2.9 TN 3.3

AR 2.8 LA 3.5

NY 4.8

MI 2.8

MS 2.8

AL 2.9

PA 3.1 WV 2.8 VA 3.8 NC 3.2 SC 3.2

GA 3.1

V T 3.9 NH 3.6 MA 5.0 RI 4.0 C T 3.7 NJ 4.2 MD 3.9 DE 4.0 DC 7.4

< 2.9 2.9 - 3.4 3.5 - 3.8 3.9 - 4.6

HI 7.9

FL 4.1

4.7 +

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau 1-year American Community Survey data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Real Estate and Construction

59


Apartment boom in Salt Lake City Composition of building permits for residential units by housing type, 2000â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2017 Share of residential building permits 0% 14%

1%

1%

2% 8%

15%

19%

9% 13%

11%

59%

71%

74% 69%

75%

21% 14% Salt Lake City Apartments

Balance of Salt Lake Balance of Wasatch County Front Single-Family Detached

6%

9%

Ring Counties

Balance of the State

Condo/Townhome/Duplex

Other

Balance of Wasatch Front = Davis, Utah, and Weber counties; Ring counties = Juab, Morgan, Tooele, and Summit counties Note: Other includes group quarters, mobile homes, manufactured homes, cabins, accessory dwelling units, and any other dwelling unit type not covered by apartments, condominiums, townhomes, duplexes, or detached single-family homes; regions are mutually exclusive. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Ivory-Boyer Construction Database data

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Real Estate and Construction

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Retail dives, apartments soar Wasatch Front commerical real estate under construction by property type Percent of total stock 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0%

Apartment

Office

Industrial

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

0.0%

Retail

Note: 2018 as of the third quarter. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Insitute analysis of CoStar Group Inc. data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Real Estate and Construction

61


Double whammy of rising interest rates and home prices Utah median monthly mortgage payment and 30-year mortgage rates 8.14%

6.39% 4.86%

6.04% 5.85%

5.79% 3.59%

$1,225

$1,122

$1,081

$1,009

$1,034

$1,150

$1,425

$1,602

$1,539

$1,316

$1,191

$1,058

$1,014

$1,215

$1,272

$1,312

$1,373

$1,569

$1,929

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

3.66%

Monthly Payment

30-year Mortgage Rate

Note: Median monthly payment is based on median sales price for single-family homes. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of UtahRealEstate.com, Freddie Mac, and Mortgage Bankers Association data

62

Real Estate and Construction

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Utah mortgage debt among highest in nation Mortgage debt balance per capita, 2017 States with highest and lowest rankings

Top Ten

Bottom Ten

HI

$54,680

MI

$23,130

CA

$54,640

IN

$22,810

MD

$50,900

OH

$21,500

CO

$50,900

AL

$21,000

VA

$47,370

LA

$20,820

WA

$47,110

KY

$20,010

OK

$19,830

MA

$45,760

UT

$41,830

AR

CT

$41,790

WV

$15,240

AK

$41,580

MS

$15,230

$18,200

Note: Population is ages 18 years and older with an Equifax credit file; District of Columbia mortgage debt per capita = $62,080. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York State Level Household Debt Statistics 2003-2017

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

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Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s growth in mortgage debt burden second in nation Growth in mortgage debt balance per capita, 2016-2017 United States = 4.3%

WA 5.5% OR 5.0%

MT 4.1%

ND 4.5%

ID 5.4% WY 5.0%

CA 5.3%

NV 6.4%

UT 7.5%

AZ 6.9%

CO 8.2%

NM 1.2%

SD 4.3% NE 5.1% KS 3.9%

OK 5.7%

TX 5.3%

AK 1.6%

MN 2.5%

ME 1.5%

WI 1.3%

IA 2.3%

MI 3.6%

IN IL 1.5% 3.7%

OH 2.6%

NY 2.8% PA 2.8%

WV 2.6% VA KY 3.4% 3.1% NC TN 4.4% 6.5% AR SC 3.5% 4.8% GA MS AL 4.5% 3.4% 4.5% LA 4.4%

MO 2.9%

V T 1.7% NH 1.7% MA 4.2% RI 3.3% C T 1.3% NJ 2.8% MD 3.7% DE 3.8% DC 4.7%

< 2.0% 2.0% - 3.9% 4.0% - 4.9% 5.0% - 5.9%

HI 4.4%

FL 4.3%

6.0% +

Note: Population is ages 18 years and older with an Equifax credit file; District of Columbia mortgage debt per capita = $62,080. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York State Level Household Debt Statistics 2003-2017

64

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Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


What happens in Vegas happens elsewhere too Visitor spending as a percent of state GDP, 2017

WA 3.7% OR 5.4%

MT 9.6% ID 6.5% WY 9.0%

CA 5.0%

NV 26.6%

UT 5.4%

AZ 6.2%

ND 5.7% SD 5.7%

MN 4.2%

NE 4.2% CO 5.8%

NM 7.6%

KS 4.8% OK 4.3%

TX 4.4%

AK 5.5%

ME 6.7% WI 3.6%

IA 4.7%

MI 3.9%

IN IL 4.8% 3.3%

OH 3.1%

NY 5.0% PA 3.5%

WV 5.6% VA KY 5.0% 4.7% NC TN 4.6% 5.8% AR SC 5.8% 6.5% GA MS AL 6.0% 4.6% 5.3% LA 5.4%

MO 4.8%

V T 7.9% NH 5.2% MA 4.2% RI 3.6% C T 4.3% NJ 3.7% MD 4.4% DE 3.0%

< 4.0% 4.0% - 4.9% 5.0% - 6.9% 7.0% - 9.9%

HI 28.7%

FL 10.0%

10.0% +

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Travel Association and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Travel and Tourism

65


Travel and tourism drives over a third of all jobs in six counties Private leisure and hospitality sector jobs in Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s counties, 2017 Percent of total private employment and top ten for job growth

Growth in Private Leisure and Hospitality Employment, Top Ten Counties, 2013-2017 San Juan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30.7% Utah. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26.6% Iron. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23.0% Grand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22.1% Wasatch. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21.7% Box Elder . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21.4% Sanpete . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21.3% Millard. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21.1% Juab. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20.7% Davis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18.8%

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Utah Department of Workforce Services data

66

Travel and Tourism

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Tax exporting County Transient Room Tax revenue Annual change and top ten collectors

County Transient Room Tax Revenue, Top Ten Counties, FY 2017 ($ millions) Salt Lake. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $18.3 Summit. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$9.5 Washington. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$7.1 Grand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$4.7 Utah. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$3.4 Kane. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $2.5 Garfield. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$1.9 Wasatch. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$1.9 Davis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$1.6 Weber. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$1.6

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Utah State Tax Commission data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Travel and Tourism

67


O Canada International visitor spending by country, 2016-2017 $ millions and year-over-year change

Canada

+9.9%

China

-0.5%

France

-0.2%

Germany

+4.0%

United Kingdom

-5.2%

Australia

+7.8%

Japan

+11.0%

South Korea

+13.2%

Brazil

+10.6%

Taiwan

+31.5% $0

$20

2016 2017

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

$220

Source: Tourism Economics

68

Travel and Tourism

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s national parks: efficiency, understaffing, or both? Utah national park and monument indicators Jobs and visits 2,000

National Park Jobs National Park & Monument Visits

18

1,800

16

1,600

14

1,400

12

1,200

10

1,000

2018e

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

0

2007

0

2006

200

2005

2

2004

400

2003

4

2002

600

2001

6

2000

800

1999

8

National Park Jobs

Millions of Visitors

20

Note: e = estimate Source: National Park Services and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Travel and Tourism

69


Taking advantage of the greatest snow on earth Utah skier/snowboarder place of origin and stats

California 10% California 10%

Utah

Utah 37% 37%

International 7% International 7%

Texas5% 5% Texas All other All other statesstates 33% 33%

Florida Florida4% 4% New NewYork York4% 4%

Average age:

Average 40.3 yearsage: 40.3 years

Length ofLength stay: ofnights stay: 5.8

5.8 nights

Stay in Stay in commercial commercial lodging: 67%

Average First time Average lodging rate: visit toFirst time lodging rate: Utah: 33% visit to $431/night

lodging: 67%

$431/night

Utah: 33%

Source: RRC Associates

70

Travel and Tourism

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Utah natural increase continues descent Utah population components of change 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 (10,000)

Total Change

Natural Increase (births less deaths)

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

(20,000)

Net Migration

Source: Utah Population Committee (2010-2018) and Utah Population Estimates Committee (2000-2009)

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Utah Demographics

71


Oh mother, where art thou? Total fertility rate, 2017 Births per woman

WA 1.71 OR 1.56

MT 1.80 ID 2.01 WY 1.86

CA 1.69

NV 1.77

CO 1.63

NM 1.76

SD 2.23

KS 1.93 OK 1.90

TX 1.92

AK 2.02

ME 1.58

MN 1.87

NE 2.06

UT 2.12

AZ 1.79

ND 2.06

WI 1.79

IA 1.94 MO 1.81 AR 1.91

NY 1.65

MI 1.76

IN IL 1.73 1.87

OH 1.83

PA 1.69

WV 1.73 VA KY 1.75 1.90 NC TN 1.77 1.80 SC 1.73 GA MS AL 1.85 1.82 1.79

LA 1.88

V T 1.52 NH 1.51 MA 1.51 RI 1.51 C T 1.59 NJ 1.75 MD 1.75 DE 1.75 DC 1.42

<1.60 1.60 - 1.73 1.74 - 1.83 1.84 - 1.94

FL 1.71

HI 1.89

>1.94

Note: The total fertility rate is the expected number of births per woman based on the current schedule of age-specific birth rates. Source: National Center for Health Statistics National Vital Statistics System Births: Final Data for 2017

72

Utah Demographics

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


South Dakotaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s fertility rate driven, in part, by teen births Birth rates by age of mother, 2017 Births per 1,000 women

147.5 140.3 125.5 121.4

100.3

98.0 87.7 81.8 71.0

50.9 52.5 52.3

22.6 15.2

18.8 10.4 11.9 11.6 0.9 0.9

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

South Dakota

Utah

35-39

40-44

45-49*

United States

*South Dakota does not meet standards of reliability; fewer than 20 births. Source: National Center for Health Statistics National Vital Statistics System Births: Final Data for 2017

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Utah Demographics

73


More new Utahns arriving from Asia than any other region Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s foreign born population Recent arrivals by region of birth 2.7% 2.9% 2.0% Entered 1990-2000

64.9%

16.5%

10.9%

2.7% 2.2% 4.6% Entered after 2000

62.9%

20.2%

7.4%

3.1% 3.3% 5.3% Entered after 2010

Asia

44.5%

Latin America

34.3%

Europe

Africa

Northern America

9.5%

Oceania

Note: 1990-2000 entrance from 2000 Census, through March 2000; 2000 and later entrance from 2007-2011 5-Year American Community Survey Estimates; 2010 and later entrance from 2012-2016 5-Year American Community Survey Estimates. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Decennial Census and American Community Survey 2011 and 2016 5-Year Estimates

74

Utah Demographics

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s capital city population reaches a milestone; still shrinking in proportion to county Salt Lake City populaton 250,000

80.0%

Share of Salt Lake County

72.9%

Salt Lake City Population 70.0% 200,544

200,000

189,454

60.0%

50.0%

159,936

150,000

40.0% 100,000

30.0%

17.7% 20.0% 50,000 10.0%

0.0%

0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Division Estimates

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Utah Demographics

75


Median-aged Utahns still canâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t run for president, getting closer Median age in Utah and the United States

40

38.1

United States Utah

31.0

30.1

30

28.1

25.1

22.9

23.1

20

19.2

10

0 1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2016

2017

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

76

Utah Demographics

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


From Leave it to Beaver to Modern Family Cumulative change in Utah persons per household since 1920 Persons per household was 4.5 in 1920, 3.1 at last census 1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

0.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

-1.2

-1.4 Householding Behavior Contribution

Population Age Composition Contribution

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of IPUMS USA: Version 8.0 data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

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77


Cities with the most- and least-engaged NBA fans.

Most engaged fans

Least engaged fans

Source: WalletHub ranking based on ticket prices, stadium accessibility, fan engagement, and NBA and NCAA team performance.

78

Utah Demographics

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


Itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s a small world Utah Jazz Facebook followers by country Rank

Country

Followers

Rank

Country

Followers

1

USA

475,791

17

Spain

11,582

2

Philippines

475,570

18

Argentina

11,271

3

India

193,418

19

Greece

10,582

4

Nigeria

57,780

20

Venezuela

10,128

5

Brazil

56,186

21

Thailand

9,208

6

Mexico

51,362

22

Poland

8,213

7

Indonesia

40,491

23

UK

8,152

8

Australia

30,855

24

Colombia

8,077

9

Taiwan

30,836

25

Malaysia

8,032

10

France

30,405

26

Germany

7,437

11

Turkey

22,642

27

Serbia

6,660

12

Kenya

19,133

28

Chile

5,945

13

Italy

17,703

29

Portugal

5,872

14

Canada

14,944

30

Puerto Rico

5,775

15

Domican Republic

14,229

31

Peru

5,713

16

Mongolia

12,872

32

New Zealand

5,209

Source: Facebook

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Utah Demographics

79


Probability of making an informed decision

The whole point

Accurate data and information

80

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2019


K E M C . G A R D N E R P O L I C Y I N S T I T U T E S TA F F A N D A D V I S O R S Leadership Team

Staff

Natalie Gochnour, Associate Dean and Director Jennifer Robinson, Associate Director Shelley Kruger, Accounting and Finance Manager Colleen Larson, Administrative Manager Dianne Meppen, Director of Survey Research Pamela S. Perlich, Director of Demographic Research Juliette Tennert, Director of Economic and Public Policy Research Nicholas Thiriot, Communications Director James A. Wood, Ivory-Boyer Senior Fellow

Samantha Ball, Research Associate Mallory Bateman, Research Analyst DJ Benway, Research Analyst Marin Christensen, Research Associate Mike Christensen, Scholar-in-Residence John C. Downen, Senior Managing Economist Dejan Eskic, Senior Research Analyst Emily Harris, Demographic Analyst Michael T. Hogue, Senior Research Statistician Mike Hollingshaus, Demographer Thomas Holst, Senior Energy Analyst Meredith King, Research Coordinator Jennifer Leaver, Research Analyst Angela J. Oh, Senior Managing Economist Levi Pace, Senior Research Economist Joshua Spolsdoff, Research Economist Paul Springer, Senior Graphic Designer Laura Summers, Senior Health Care Analyst Natalie Young, Research Analyst

Faculty Advisors Matt Burbank, Faculty Advisor Adam Meirowitz, Faculty Advisor

Senior Advisors Jonathan Ball, Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst Gary Cornia, Marriott School of Business Theresa Foxley, EDCUtah Dan Griffiths, Tanner LLC Roger Hendrix, Hendrix Consulting Joel Kotkin, Chapman University Darin Mellott, CBRE Chris Redgrave, Zions Bank Bud Scruggs, Cynosure Group Wesley Smith, Western Governors University


Partners in the Community

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Advisory Board

The following individuals and entities help support the research mission of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.

Conveners

Legacy Partners

Board

The Gardner Company Intermountain Healthcare Larry H. & Gail Miller Family Foundation Mountain America Credit Union Mitt and Ann Romney Salt Lake City Corporation Salt Lake County University of Utah Health Utah Governorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Office of Economic Development Zions Bank

Scott Anderson, Co-Chair Gail Miller, Co-Chair Doug Anderson Deborah Bayle Cynthia A. Berg Roger Boyer Wilford Clyde Sophia M. DiCaro Cameron Diehl Lisa Eccles Spencer P. Eccles

Michael O. Leavitt Mitt Romney

Matt Eyring Kem C. Gardner Christian Gardner Natalie Gochnour Clark Ivory Ron Jibson Mike S. Leavitt Kimberly Gardner Martin Derek Miller Ann Millner Sterling Nielsen Cristina Ortega Jason Perry Taylor Randall Jill Remington Love Brad Rencher Josh Romney

Charles W. Sorenson James Lee Sorenson Vicki Varela Ruth V. Watkins Ted Wilson

Ex Officio (invited) Governor Gary Herbert Speaker Brad Wilson Senate President Stuart Adams Representative Brian King Senator Karen Mayne Mayor of Salt Lake County Mayor Jackie Biskupski

Executive Partners Mark and Karen Bouchard The Boyer Company Ivory Homes Salt Lake Chamber Sorenson Impact Center WCF Insurance

Sustaining Partners Clyde Companies Dominion Energy Staker Parson Companies

Salt Lake Chamber Board of Directors Steve Starks, Chair Linda Wardell, Vice Chair Kim Abrams Matt Baldwin Laura Bogusch Marc Cameron Wilford Clyde John Dahlstrom Spencer P. Eccles

Theresa Foxley Val Hale Kay Hall Gary Hoogeveen Clark D. Ivory Greg M. Johnson Pat Jones Fred P. Lampropoulos Brent Low

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

I

Thomas S. Monson Center 411 E. South Temple Street Salt Lake City, UT 84111 801-585-5618 gardner.utah.edu

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DAV I D E CC L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S UNIVERSITY OF UTAH

Dean W. Luikart Dr. Donna L. Milavetz Derek Miller Scott Parson Ray D. Pickup Gary B. Porter Craig Wagstaff

Profile for David Eccles School of Business

Utah Informed 2019  

A visual intellection of statewide data created by the Kem C. Gardner Public Policy Institute at the David Eccles School of Business in part...

Utah Informed 2019  

A visual intellection of statewide data created by the Kem C. Gardner Public Policy Institute at the David Eccles School of Business in part...