__MAIN_TEXT__

Page 1

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

I

U N I V E R S I T Y O F U TA H

In Par tnership with the Salt Lake Chamber


KEM C. GARDNER POLIC Y INSTITUTE

We are an honest broker of

INFORMED RESEARCH that guides

INFORMED DISCUSSIONS and leads to

INFORMED D E C I S I O N Sâ„¢


January 2021

Dear friends,

Y

ou may not be interested in the virus, but the virus is interested in you.” This modified Leo Tolstoy quote summarizes much of 2020 and the start of 2021. COVID-19 came seemingly from out of nowhere and impacted every facet of our lives, livelihoods, and lifestyles.

Through all of the struggle, disruption, and pain we’ve been taught many lessons. Among others we’ve learned… n Pandemics wreak havoc on society, leaving a trail of commotion and misery in their wake. n COVID-19 hurts some people, industries, and areas more than others. n Free societies like ours–notwithstanding all of the benefits–struggle to contain a contagious pathogen. n People and businesses innovate and adapt to meet serious challenges. Even better, they reach out and help one another. n Well diversified economies like Utah’s fare better when economic hardship strikes.

n When you focus on one problem you lose perspective. Pandemics demand a balanced response. n Modern medicine makes miracles happen. n And, health care and other frontline workers are today’s heroes in every sense of the word. This 2021 edition of Utah Informed captures these and other lessons with the hope that the information provided will help us put this historic pandemic behind us. We can emerge stronger and better than before. The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute serves as an honest broker of informed research, that guides informed discussions, and leads to INFORMED DECISIONS™.

Thanks for your interest,

Natalie Gochnour

Taylor Randall

Derek Miller

Director, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Dean, David Eccles School of Business

President & CEO, Salt Lake Chamber

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

1


Contents Current Affairs Words and phrases to know in 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Top Google searches in United States, 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Business cycles of the world. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 COVID-19 cases per 1,000,000 population by select country. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 University of Utah Health quick facts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Year-over movie theater ticket sales, 1996–2020. . . . . . 12 Voter turnout in Utah, 2000–2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Voter turnout by county, 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Potential need for early childhood mental health services in Utah. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Utah Economy Major central bank balance sheets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Jobs ranked by 2019 average weekly earnings. . . . . . . . 17 U.S. and Utah indicies of consumer sentiment, 2020. . 18 Utah CEOutlook confidence index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 State-level social capital index, 2018. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Utah non-mortgage household debt by type, 2003–2019. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Industrial bank assets, 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Utah RV sales. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Distribution of jobs and population in Utah, 2020 . . . . 24 Utah’s economic regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 State-level Hachman Index, 2019. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

2

County-level Hachman Index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Utah’s universities total headcount by race/ethnicity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Rainy day fund balances as a percent of general fund expenditures, 2019. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Year-over change in nonfarm employment. . . . . . . . . . . 31 Year-over change in nonfarm employment in Utah’s counties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Federal financial assistance to Utah businesses during the pandemic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio, 1948–2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 State coincident indexes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Child care need and gaps in Utah before COVID-19. . . 36 United Way of Salt Lake 211 calls . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Utah student outcomes based on economic status, 2018. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

Public Finance CARES Act allocations by state as a share of estimated 2020 GDP. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Utah taxable retail sales. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Utah general obligation debt relative to constitutional debt limit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Utah’s top 10 trading partners and exports, 2020. . . . . 42 U.S. and Utah revenue sources, 2018. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


Real Estate and Construction Home sales and listings in Utah. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Home price growth in Utah, 2019–2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Annual increase in households and housing units in Utah/cumulative shortage. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Change in FHFA state-level house price index . . . . . . . . 48 Top 25 metro areas ranked by median sales price of single-family homes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Gap of affordable and available rental units for renters at 0–50% of area median income in Utah. . . 50 Cumulative permitted commercial construction. . . . . . 51

Travel and Tourism Year-over seated diners in U.S. and Utah. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 Leisure and hospitality taxable sales, 2019–2020 . . . . . 53 Utah leisure and hospitality employment, 2019–2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Year-over change in travel-related spending and SLC International Airport passengers, 2019–2020. . . . . . . 55 Year-over change in Utah park visitation, 2019–2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Year-over change in hotel occupancy rates, Springdale vs. downtown Salt Lake City, 2019–2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Energy and Environment Fuel mix of electric power generation in Utah, 2020. . . . 58 Rotary drilling rig count in Utah, 2010–2020. . . . . . . . . . 59 West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices, 2020. . . . . . . . 60 Year-over change in U.S. petroleum consumption, 2019–2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61

Health COVID-19 cases per 1,000,000 population by state. . . . 62 Cumulative COVID-19 case-fatality rates in Utah vs. U.S.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Utah COVID-19 hospitalization rate per 1,000 cases and mortality rate per 100,000 population by race and ethnicity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 Share of adults who report anxiety disorder symptoms in Utah vs. U.S., 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Utah telehealth visits by type. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 Utah childhood vaccinations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 Public health funding per capita by state, 2019. . . . . . . 68

3


Contents Demographics Multigenerational households, 2014–2018. . . . . . . . . . . 69 Current Utah residents who lived in a different western state one year ago, 2019. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 Place of birth for Utah residents, 2019. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Seasonal births and deaths indexes for Utah and six largest counties, 2001–2017. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 Natural increase in Salt Lake County and Utah County, 2010–2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 Net migration as a share of population change, 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 Utah commuting data, 2018. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 COVID-19 Telework: Top-10 states. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 Top-10 self-response rates by state for 2020 Census. . . 77

Utah Informed The whole point. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78

Editor-in-Chief: Jennifer Robinson

4

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


Words and phrases to know in 2021

n Contactless payment - a secure method for consumers to purchase products or services by tapping or waving their credit or debit card above the payment reader. Many businesses are offering contactless payment to reduce touchpoints during a customer's shopping experience.

n Policy stimulus - using government policies, including government spending and tax reductions, to boost economic activity. Unable to use traditional remedies like monetary or fiscal policy stimulus, policymakers may consider automatic fiscal stabilizers.

n Currency volatility - a situation in which the value of a country's currency changes suddenly and often. Floating exchange rates have not resulted in currency volatility, as feared.

n Quranteens & coronababies - those who are currently teenagers during the pandemic or babies conceived or born during the pandemic. Social scientists wonder what the long-term effects will be on quaranteens and coronababies.

n Doomscrolling - the tendency to continue to surf or scroll through bad news, even though the news is saddening, disheartening, or depressing. If you are doomscrolling, it may be time to take a step back and ask yourself what you really need to know. n Ecoanxiety - a specific kind of anxiety caused by a dread of environmental perils, especially climate change. The key to addressing ecoanxiety at any age is losing that feeling of paralysis in the face of the problem's magnitude. n Hybrid workplace - a company offering a permanent desk at an office, a work-at-home option, or some combination of the two. Hybrid workplace is a model of flexibility, adaptability, and shared ownership between employers and employees. n Infodemic - an excessive amount of information about a problem, including misinformation, which makes it difficult to identify a solution. We're not just fighting an epidemic; we're fighting an infodemic. n Malarkey - insincere or foolish talk; bunkum. He thinks that everything politicians say is a bunch of malarkey.

n Slowbalisation - continued integration of the global economy via trade, financial and other flows albeit at a significantly slower pace. We are now in an era of slowbalisation, or peak globalisation, with global trade slowing down. n Social Distancing - the practice of maintaining a greater than usual physical distance from other people during the outbreak of a contagious disease in order to minimize exposure and reduce transmission of infection. Under a new social distancing strategy, handshaking could be discouraged, with other, less tactile forms of greeting taking its place. n TikToker - a person who regularly shares or appears in videos on TikTok, a social media platform. The first TikToker to reach 100 million followers is just 16 years old. n WFH - an employee is working from their house, apartment, or place of residence, rather than working from the office. Oftentimes your daily attire includes professional on top, pajamas on bottom. By altering attitudes toward WFH, COVID-19 may have forever changed the way we work.

n Monolith - a free-standing column, 10-feet tall, made of stainless steel, first one was embedded into the rock found in the southern Utah desert. Fox 13 reports that the monolith is believed by many to be a work of abstract art.

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Current Affairs

5


The year we learned to make masks Top Google searches in United States, 2020

Searches

News

People

1. Election results 2. Coronavirus 3. Kobe Bryant 4. Coronavirus update 5. Coronavirus symptoms 6. Zoom 7. Who is winning the election 8. Naya Rivera 9. Chadwick Boseman 10. PlayStation 5

1. Election results 2. Coronavirus 3. Stimulus checks 4. Unemployment 5. Iran 6. Hurricane Laura 7. Super Tuesday 8. Stock market 9. Murder hornet 10. Australia fires

1. Joe Biden 2. Kim Jong Un 3. Kamala Harris 4. Jacob Blake 5. Ryan Newman 6. Tom Hanks 7. Shakira 8. Tom Brady 9. Kanye West 10. Vanessa Bryant

How to make‌

Why‌

1. How to make hand sanitizer 2. How to make a face mask with fabric 3. How to make whipped coffee 4. How to make a mask with a bandana 5. How to make a mask without sewing 6. How to make cloud bread 7. How to make Facebook avatar 8. How to make Bitmoji classroom 9. How to make disinfectant wipes 10. How to make a live wallpaper

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.

Why were chainsaws invented Why is there a coin shortage Why was George Floyd arrested Why is Nevada taking so long Why is TikTok getting banned Why did Kobe have 2 numbers Why is everyone buying toilet paper Why is it called COVID-19 Why is it called Juneteenth Why is Australia on fire

Source: Google Trends

6

Current Affairs

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


school “high athletes We

all need to start acting like .

They

have something they

care about

and they are

protecting

their ability to keep playing.

So

find that

you care about as much as these athletes

thing that

�

care about football, cheer, and drill. - Dr. Angela Dunn, Utah State Epidemiologist

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Current Affairs

7


As the world turns Business cycles of the world December 2, 2020

n Recovery

n Expansion

n At Risk

n Recession

Source: Moody’s Analytics

8

Current Affairs

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


Not where we want to be COVID-19 cases per 1,000,000 population by select country December 1, 2020 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000

Andorra Montenegro Luxembourg Bahrain Belgium Czech Republic United States Israel Panama Switzerland Spain France Austria Argentina Brazil Portugal Italy Poland Colombia Sweden United Kingdom Russia Ireland Denmark Iraq Albania Germany Greece Saudi Arabia Canada Mexico India Norway Finland Pakistan Japan Egypt Australia South Korea New Zealand China

0.0

Note: As of December 1, 2020, the U.S. had 13.7 million COVID-19 cases. The country with the next highest number of cases, India, had 9.5 million. Source: Johns Hopkins University (JHU) Coronavirus Resource Center

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Current Affairs

9


Health care heroes: working together to combat COVID-19 University of Utah Health quick facts As of December 23, 2020

346,880 1,230 COVID-19 tests performed

COVID-19 admits

10,860 COVID-19 hospital patient days Novel research projects: 56 campus-wide research projects funded by the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health

Peer reviewed COVID-19 journal publications: Over 60 by University of Utah Health investigators

Testing: ARUP Laboratories is one of the four largest reference laboratories in the nation

Volunteerism: ProjectProtect mobilized more than 57,500 volunteers to sew nearly six million masks in six weeks for health care workers

10

Current Affairs

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


The

coronavirus pandemic has

challenged us in new ways. It’s challenged us medically and scientifically. It’s

also challenged us to recognize how

interconnected our lives really are

and that living

healthy requires that we work

together - Michael L. Good, MD CEO, University of Utah Health Dean, University of Utah School of Medicine Lorris Betz Senior Vice President for Health Sciences

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

.

Current Affairs

11


Netflix and chill Year-over movie theater ticket sales, 1996–2020

1,600

1,400

Tickets Sold (millions)

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Source: The Numbers, Where Data and the Movie Business Meet, Domestic Movie Theatrical Market Summary 1995 to 2020

12

Current Affairs

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


Turnout tsunami

2000

Presidential

2002

Midterm

2004

Presidential

2006

Midterm

2008

Presidential

2010

Midterm

2012

Presidential

2014

Midterm

2016

Presidential

2018

Midterm

2020

Voter turnout in Utah, 2000–2020

Presidential 0

500,000 Votes Cast

1,000,000

Voting Eligible Population

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Registered Voters

Source: Utah State Elections; Office of the Utah Lieutenant Governor

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Current Affairs

13


Get out the vote! Voter turnout by county, 2020 Cache 92.28% Rich 92.34% Weber 89.32% Davis 90.51% Morgan 90.20% Daggett 90.01%

Box Elder 91.69%

Salt Lake 90.11%

Tooele 87.91%

Summit 92.44% Wasatch 88.88%

Utah 89.18% Juab 84.73%

Uintah 91.76%

Carbon 92.26% Sanpete 91.53%

Millard 90.92%

Sevier 90.53% Beaver 89.38%

Duchesne 86.60%

Piute 87.59%

Iron 92.83%

Washington 91.41% 84.73%

Emery 88.16%

Grand 87.61%

Wayne 93.11% Garfield 87.36%

San Juan 89.41%

Kane 85.12% 93.11%

Source: Utah State Elections; Office of the Utah Lieutenant Governor

14

Current Affairs

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


For our kids Potential need for early childhood mental health services in Utah

10%–20%

Based on a range of estimates from national studies,

10-20% of Utah’s 458,000 children 35% between the ages of 0‒8 could experience mental, emotional, developmental, or behavioral challenges. 30% 25%

30.9% 24.4%

22.2%

20% 14.7%

Note: Estimates shown are from national studies completed prior to the COVID-19 pandemic Source: Child and Adolescent Health Measurement Initiative (2017-2018); Brauner C.B., Stephens CB. (2006); Cree R.A., Bitsko R.H., Robinson L.R., et al. (2016).

15% 10%

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

12.6%

9.8% *

Current Affairs

15


We’re all monetary theorists now! Major central bank balance sheets Percent of GDP, December 11, 2020 70% 62% 60%

50% 44% 40% 35% 30%

20%

10%

0%

2008

2011 European Central Bank

2014 Federal Reserve

2020

2017 Bank of England

Source: Datastream and Wells Fargo Securities

16

Utah Economy

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


Low-income workers feel the pain Jobs ranked by 2019 average weekly earnings Percent change in employment from February 2020–November 2020 5%

0% -2.9% -3.1% -3.8%

-5%

-10%

-10.5% -12.5%

-15%

-20%

-25%

-30%

-35%

-40%

Feb

Mar

Apr

Highest-Paying Quintile

May Second Quintile

Jun

Jul Middle Quintile

Aug

Sep Fourth Quintile

Oct

Nov Lowest-Paying Quintile

Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Utah Economy

17


Shaken confidence U.S. and Utah indicies of consumer sentiment, 2020 120

100

Consumer Sentiment

80

60

40

20

November

October

August

July Utah

September

U.S.

June

May

April

March

February

January

0

Note: Utah Consumer Confidence Index began in October 2020 and is ongoing Source: U.S. Index of Consumer Sentiment, University of Michigan, and Utah Consumer Index, University of Utah

18

Utah Economy

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


Hopeful CEOs Utah CEOutlook confidence index 2017–Q3 2020 80.0

66.3 62.8

62.0

60.6

62.4

62.3

60.9

61.2

60.1 55.5

53.2

59.4

57.3

53.3

50.0

Concern

Confidence Index

60.0

Optimism

70.0

40.0 32.3 30.0

20.0

10.0

0.0

Q1

Q2 Q3 2017

Q4

Q1

Q2 Q3 2018

Q4

Q1

Q2 Q3 2019

Q4

Q1

Q2 2020

Q3

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute and Salt Lake Chamber survey of business leaders

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Utah Economy

19


Utah’s Secret Sauce State-level social capital index, 2018

1

#

Bottom 20%

Top 20%

Note: Social capital is defined in this study as the aspects of our relationships that produce benefits for us. Social capital is likely to be “greater” or more productive in families, communities, and organizations with an abundance of close, supportive relationships. Source: Joint Economic Committee/Social Capital Project.

20

Utah Economy

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


Drowning in student loans? You’re not alone Utah non-mortgage household debt by type, 2003–2019 Average balance per capita in 2020 dollars $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000

Other Debt

Student Loan

Credit Card

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

$0

Auto

Note: Non-mortgage debt includes home equity loans and lines of credit. Source: Federal Reserve Bank, New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel, Equifax

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Utah Economy

21


This is the Place...for industrial banks Industrial bank assets, 2020 Share of U.S. industrial bank total and total assets in billions of dollars

MN <0.1%

NV 6.9% CA 0.5%

UT 92.2%

IN 0.1%

None $0.1 or less $0.3 to $0.5 $11.9 $159.2 HI 0.3%

Note: Asset balances as of September 30, 2020 for all 24 industrial banks in the U.S. Source: Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council

22

Utah Economy

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


Quarantine on wheels Utah RV sales Q4 2019â&#x20AC;&#x201C;Q3 2020 16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0 2017 Q1

Q2

2018 Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

2019 Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

2020 Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Note: RV sales include camper, motor home, trailer - 750lbs or less, trailer - standard, trailer - tent or camper, and trailer - travel new dealer sales Source: Utah State Tax Commission, New Vehicle Sales

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Utah Economy

23


Employment centers Distribution of jobs and population in Utah, 2020 Cache 42.9 Rich 32.1 Weber 41.7 Davis 36.2 Morgan 20.7 Daggett 35.6

Box Elder 36.1

Tooele 22.6

Summit 62.6

Salt Lake 60.2

Wasatch 29.1 Utah 36.8

Juab 30.1

Piute 15.9

Iron 34.5

50.0 - 62.6

Uintah 32.3

Sanpete 26.0 Sevier 39.6

Washington 36.4

Duchesne 36.8

Carbon 39.1

Millard 33.7

Beaver 39.4

U.S.: 42.2 Utah: 45.3

Emery 29.7

Grand 51.6

Wayne 36.0 Garfield 38.2

San Juan 23.3

Kane 43.7 40.0 - 49.9

30.0 - 39.9

15.9 - 29.9

Note: Jobs per 100 population Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

24

Utah Economy

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


All economics is regional Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economic regions

Regional center

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Utah Economy

25


Utah leads in economic diversity State-level Hachman Index, 2019 Based on two-digit industry GDP data

WA 82.3 ND 50.8

MT 79.2

OR 93.1

ID 77.4

NV 68.0 CA 92.7

WY 32.1

MN 93.8

CO 93.8

AZ 96.1

WI 91.2 IA 75.2

KS 90.7 OK 57.6

NM 57.8 TX 75.3

AK 38.5

VT 89.2

SD 63.0 NE 73.7

UT 97.3

ME 90.9

MO 96.7

AR 87.6 LA 83.8

IL 95.6

NY 77.9

MI 91.3 OH 93.2

IN 77.7

KY 89.6

PA 95.4 WV 62.5

TN 92.4 MS 86.1

AL 90.3

GA 96.5

NH 94.5 MA 89.5 RI 89.3 CT 89.8 NJ 94.1 MD 88.2

DE 60.2 VA 89.9 DC 49.1 NC 93.8 SC 90.9 Hachman Index Score

FL 92.1

95.0+ (Most Diverse) 90.0 - 94.9 85.0 - 89.9 75.0 - 84.9 <75.0 (Least Diverse)

HI 70.1

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

26

Utah Economy

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


Salt Lake County leads in economic diversity County-level Hachman Index, 2019 Based on two-digit industry employment data Cache 74.2 Rich 45.7 Weber 89.8 Davis 84.9 Morgan 54.0 Daggett 35.2

Box Elder 59.0

Tooele 79.5

Salt Lake 94.0 Utah 80.9

Summit 42.0 Wasatch 67.6

Juab 65.9 Sanpete 58.2

Emery 19.6

Sevier 44.9 Piute 25.8

Iron 80.4

Washington 83.5

Uintah 17.5

Carbon 30.7

Millard 28.8

Beaver 19.5

Duchesne 11.6

Grand 46.8

Wayne 53.1 Garfield 39.2

San Juan 47.7

Kane 43.5

80.0+ (Most Diverse)

40.0 - 59.9

60.0 - 79.9

20.0 - 39.9

<20.0 (Least Diverse)

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Utah Economy

27


Growth in equity, diversity, and inclusion Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s universities total headcount by race/ethnicity 1999 compared to 2019

1999 2019 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

White enrollment

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Minority enrollment

Note: Excludes non-resident students and students whose race was not reported Source: Utah System of Higher Education

28

Utah Economy

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


transformational change around diversity, equity, inclusion, and belonging can’t just be transactional. It has to be Deep

relational. - Aiko Bethea

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Utah Economy

29


Saving for a rainy day Rainy day fund balances as a percent of general fund expenditures, 2019

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40%

9.2%

30% 20% 10%

Illinois Kansas Pennsylvania Kentucky New Jersey Montana Arkansas New York Wisconsin Virginia Louisiana Arizona Florida Hawaii Maryland Rhode Island North Carolina North Dakota Delaware Tennessee Mississippi South Carolina Missouri Nevada Washington Nebraska New Hampshire Ohio Maine Indiana Colorado Utah Alabama Iowa Massachusetts South Dakota Minnesota Georgia Michigan Idaho Oklahoma Oregon Connecticut Vermont New Mexico California West Virginia Texas Alaska Wyoming

0%

QAMO

STUDENT SUBMISSION

Source: National Association of State Budget Officers, Fall 2019 Fiscal Survey

30

Utah Economy

Submitted by David Eccles School of Business Quantitative Analysis of Markets & Organizations (QAMO) student Sophia Bagley

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


Recession* Year-over change in nonfarm employment January 2000â&#x20AC;&#x201C;October 2020 10.0%

5.0% 2.8% 2.6%

-0.2%

0.0%

-5.0%

-6.0%

-10.0%

Utah

United States

Nov-20

Jan-20

Mar-19

May-18

Jul-17

Sep-16

Nov-15

Jan-15

Mar-14

May-13

Jul-12

Sep-11

Nov-10

Jan-10

Mar-09

May-08

Jul-07

Sep-06

Nov-05

Jan-05

Mar-04

May-03

Jul-02

Sep-01

Nov-00

Jan-00

-15.0%

Recession

*The 2020 COVID-19 recession has not yet been defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee. Note: Not seasonally adjusted Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Utah Economy

31


Eastern Utah hard hit Year-over change in nonfarm employment in Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s counties November 2019â&#x20AC;&#x201C;November 2020 Cache 0.0% Rich 3.9% Weber 0.3% Davis 1.6% Morgan 1.7% Daggett 0.8%

Box Elder -3.4%

Tooele 0.2%

Summit -13.3%

Salt Lake -1.5%

Wasatch -0.8% Utah 1.9%

Juab 0.5% Sanpete -0.7%

Emery 1.8%

Sevier -1.1%

Iron 0.1%

Washington 1.0%

Uintah -7.8%

Carbon -3.8%

Millard -1.6%

Beaver -3.2%

Duchesne -7.2%

Piute -2.6%

Grand -3.5%

Wayne -1.8% Garfield -2.9%

San Juan -7.1%

Kane -1.9%

>2.0%

0.0% to -3.1%

-7.2% to -7.8%

0.0% to 1.9%

-3.2% to -7.1%

-7.9% to -13.3%

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

32

Utah Economy

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


Utah small business life preservers Federal financial assistance to Utah businesses during the pandemic 80%

40%

No data collected

No data collected

Percentage of Businesses

60%

Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) SBA Loan Forgiveness This business has not requested financial assistance from any source since March 13, 2020

12/23 to 11/29

11/16 to 11/22

11/9 to 11/15

10/4 to 10/12

9/27 to 10/3

9/20 to 9/26

9/13 to 9/19

9/6 ro 9/12

8/30 to 9/5

8/23 to 8/29

8/16 to 8/22

8/9 to 8/15

6/21to 6/27

6/14 to 6/20

6/7 to 6/13

5/31 to 6/6

5/24 to 5/30

5/17 to 5/23

5/10 to 5/16

5/3 to 5/9

0%

4/26 to 5/2

20%

Economic Injury Disaster Loans (EIDL) Federal Sick and Family Leave Tax Credits (only available in Phase 2)

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Business Pulse Survey

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Utah Economy

33


Termites in the woodwork U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio, 1948â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2020 Federal fiscal years

140%

Outstanding Debt as a Percent of GDP

120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

2020

2017

2014

2011

2008

2005

2002

1999

1996

1993

1990

1987

1984

1981

1978

1975

1972

1969

1966

1963

1960

1957

1954

1951

1948

0%

Source: U.S. Treasury; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

34

Utah Economy

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


Utah economy fares better during COVID-19 recession State coincident indexes Percent change Marchâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;November 2020

-2.1% -5.0%

NH -3.8%

U.S. -4.3%

-9.6%

VT 1.7%

-3.6%

-2.8%

-3.6% 0.7%

-1.7%

-4.0%

-6.4% -4.3%

1.8% 4.7%

-1.3%

-8.7%

-4.6%

-3.5%

-4.8%

1.9%

3.0%

CT -9.1% NJ -8.1%

0.1% - 4.3% -2.3%

DE 2.9% MD -10.8%

-1.5%

-4.3% -1.2%

0.3% -0.5% -1.3%

-2.5%

MA -9.7% RI -6.7%

-1.6% -5.0% -3.0%

-1.4%

-8.8%

-7.5%

-2.1%

0.7%

-3.2%

-2.3% -1.5% -21.6%

Note: The Coincident Economic Activity Index combines nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and real wage and salary dispursements. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Utah Economy

35


Mother may I? Child care need and gaps in Utah before COVID-19

153,950 children have the potential need for child care

55,460 available slots

The families of 98,750 children do not have access to child care

Child care gap: 64.1% of the potential need Source: Bipartisan Policy Center in partnership with the Utah Department of Workforce Services Office of Child Care

36

Utah Economy

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


Utahns needing help United Way of Salt Lake 211 calls 2019 compared to 2020 7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

January

February

March

April

May

June 2019

July

August September October November

2020

Note: 211 is a free information helpline that connects people of all ages and from all communities to the essential health and human services they need, 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Source: United Way of Salt Lake

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Utah Economy

37


The need for student-centered funding Utah student outcomes based on economic status, 2018 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% High School Graduation

Scoring ≥ 18 on the ACT

Mathematics Proficiency

Economically Disadvantaged

ELA Proficiency

3rd Grade Literacy

Not Economically Disadvantaged

Note: “Economically disadvantaged” refers to a child experiencing intergenerational poverty, living in a family with an annual income at or below 185% of the federal poverty level, or living with a legal custodian or legal guardian who can attest that the child or the child’s household is receiving services benefitting lowincome households or individuals, as defined in Utah Code 53B-8a-201. Source: Utah State Board of Education

38

Utah Economy

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


Who CARES? Utah does CARES Act allocations by state as a share of estimated 2020 GDP

0.5% 2.5%

1.9%

2.4% 0.6%

0.7% 1.5%

0.7% 0.5%

0.7%

2.3%

3.5%

1.0% 0.7%

0.8%

0.6%

0.6%

0.7% 0.6% 0.7%

0.7% 0.8%

1.3%

0.4%

0.8%

0.8%

0.8%

1.7% 0.6% 0.7%

0.7% 1.0%

0.8% 1.1% 0.9%

0.7%

0.7%

3.9% 1.5% 0.5% 2.1% 0.5% 0.6% 1.7% 0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

2.5% 0.8% 1.4% CARES share of 2020 GDP

0.4%

3.9%

Source: Department of the Treasury Office of Inspector General (OIG)

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Public Finance

39


40 Public Finance Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

$3,510 $3,601

Jul-20 Aug-20

$3,459

$3,625

Jun-20

Sep-20

$3,547

$2,997

Apr-20 May-20

$3,089

$2,739

Feb-20 Mar-20

$2,729

Jan-20

$3,832

$3,157

Nov-19

$2,000

Dec-19

$3,013

$2,812

$3,150

Oct-19

Sep-19

Aug-19

$2,958

Jul-19

$2,754

May-19

$2,950

$2,736

Apr-19

Jun-19

$2,804

$1,500

Mar-19

$2,354

$0 Feb-19

$500

$2,453

$1,000

Jan-19

Millions

All the small things add up

Utah taxable retail sales January 2019â&#x20AC;&#x201C;September 2020 $4,500

$4,000

$3,500

$3,000

$2,500

Source: Utah State Tax Commission

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


Fiscal responsibility Utah general obligation debt relative to constitutional debt limit FY2007â&#x20AC;&#x201C;FY2020 100% 90% 80% 70% 60%

38.1%

44.1%

42.9%

53.3%

64.7%

77.2%

55.1% 33.4%

28.3%

10%

36.7%

20%

48.1%

30%

82.1%

77.3%

40%

88.8%

50%

FY2020

FY2019

FY2018

FY2017

FY2016

FY2015

FY2014

FY2013

FY2012

FY2011

FY2010

FY2009

FY2008

FY2007

0%

Source: Utah Division of Finance

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Public Finance

41


Utah’s global mix Utah’s top 10 trading partners, 2020 Percent of total value excluding gold

Canada 16.0%

Mexico 10.3%

Canada 16.0%

Mexico 10.3%

Utah’s top 10 exports, 2020 Percent of total value excluding gold Computer & Electronic Products 20.4%

Chemicals 17.3%

Computer & Electronic Products 20.4%

Chemicals 17.3%

Japan 7.6%

Taiwan 7.2%

South Korea 5.6%

Japan China 7.6% 7.4%

Taiwan Netherlands 7.2% 5.9%

China 7.4%

Netherlands 5.9%

South Korea Germany 4.6% 5.6% Australia Singapore 2.9% 2.8%

Australia 2.9%

Transportation Equipment 9.5%

Food & Kindred Products 12.1%

Food & Kindred Products Miscellaneous Manufactured 12.1% Commodities 10.0%

Germany 4.6%

Transportation Equipment Machinery 9.5% 3.8%

Except Electrical

Singapore 2.8% Minerals & Ores 5.8% Minerals & Ores 5.8%2.0% 2.7%

5.6%

Miscellaneous Manufactured Machinery Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components 3.8% Commodities Except Electrical Plastics & Rubber Products 10.0% 5.6% Fabricated Metal Products

2.7% 2.0%

Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components Plastics & Rubber Products Fabricated Metal Products Note: Data through October 2020. Gold accounted for 50% of Utah’s exports through October of 2020; 98% of gold exports went to the United Kingdom during this time. Source: USA Trade Online

42

Public Finance

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


Does it walk like a duck? U.S. and Utah revenue sources, 2018

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% Taxes

User Fees U.S.

Other Revenue Utah

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Annual Survey of State and Local Government Finances

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Public Finance

43


A sellersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; market in the Beehive State Home sales and listings in Utah

Homes sold 7,000

# of Homes Sold

6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Active listings 12,000

Avg. Daily Listings

10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0

Jan

2016-19 Avg.

2020

Source: UtahRealEstate.com

44

Real Estate and Construction

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


Up, up, up they go...where they stop, no-one knows! Home price growth in Utah, 2019â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2020 18%

$400

16% $350

$300

12%

10% $250 8%

$200

Year-Over % Change

Median Sales Price ($1,000's)

14%

6%

4% $150 2%

$100

Median Sales Price (Left axis)

Dec-20

Nov-20

Oct-20

Sep-20

Aug-20

Jul-20

Jun-20

May-20

Apr-20

Mar-20

Feb-20

Jan-20

Dec-19

Nov-19

Oct-19

Sep-19

Aug-19

Jul-19

Jun-19

May-19

Apr-19

Mar-19

Feb-19

Jan-19

0%

Year-Over % Change (Right axis)

Source: UtahRealEstate.com

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Real Estate and Construction

45


“make money For

two decades a reliably easy way to

has been to buy a commercial building

go to sleep… But now the virus has thrown that assumption into a cement mixer. and

– Adapted from The Economist, June 27, 2020

46

Real Estate and Construction

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


The housing shortage is real Annual increase in households and housing units in Utah/cumulative shortage, 2010â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2019 30,000 20,000

10,000

0

-10,000 -20,000

-30,000

-40,000

-50,000 -60,000 2010

2011

2012

2013

Households

2014

2015

Housing Units

2016

2017

2018

2019

Cumulative Deficit

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Real Estate and Construction

47


A hot housing market Change in FHFA state-level house price index Seasonally adjusted, purchase-only index, 2015 Q3â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2020 Q3

2 60%

1 74%

4 3

53%

57%

5 49%

Source: FHFA

48

Real Estate and Construction

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


From coast to coast Top 25 metro areas ranked by median sales price of single-family homes Q1 2020 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA

Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR, WA

Salem, OR

Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA Sacramento-Roseville-Arden Arcade, CA

Barnstable Town , MA

Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT Salt Lake City, UT

Newark NJ PA

Reno, NV

San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward CA San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale CA

Nassau County-Suffolk County NY New York-NewarkJersey City, NY NJ

Denver-Aurora, CO Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

Colorado Springs, CO

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA San Diego-Carlsbad, CA

Anaheim-Santa Anna-Irvine, CA

Austin-Round Rock TX

Honolulu, HI Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL

Area

Price

Year-over % Change

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach FL

Area

Price

Year-over % Change

Salem, OR

$331,400

13.4%

Colorado Springs, CO

$339,100

14.4%

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

$438,900

Austin-Round Rock, TX

$341,500

12.6%

Denver-Aurora, CO

$473,800

6.1%

Salt Lake City, UT

$372,100

12.3%

Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL

$480,000

11.9%

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL

$375,000

7.1%

Nassau County-Suffolk County, NY

$487,700

2.8%

Newark, NJ-PA

$388,000

7.9%

Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA

$494,400

7.2%

Sacramento-Roseville-Arden Arcade, CA

$392,300

9.0%

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA

$554,500

11.5%

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA

$393,000

7.7%

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA

$592,800

8.1%

Reno, NV

$407,600

7.7%

San Diego-Carlsbad, CA

$670,000

8.1%

Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR,-WA

$416,100

6.5%

Honolulu, HI

$788,800

-0.7%

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ

$420,300

6.0%

Anaheim-Santa Anna-Irvine, CA

$875,000

9.4%

Barnstable Town, MA

$426,600

4.7%

San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA

$985,000

5.9%

Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT

$432,100

7.7%

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA

$1,350,000

10.7%

4.5%

Source: National Association of Realtors DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Real Estate and Construction

49


NOT a renter’s market Gap of affordable and available rental units for renters at 0–50% of area median income in Utah Year

Renter Households at ≤50%

Available and Affordable

Affordability Gap

2010

111,251

70,199

41,052

2011

113,717

78,010

35,707

2012

114,283

68,570

45,713

2013

116,299

69,012

47,287

2014

118,947

71,844

47,103

2015

121,701

77,037

44,664

2016

119,230

74,161

45,069

2017

123,432

75,417

48,015

2018

123,861

74,317

49,545

AARC

1.35%

0.72%

2.38%

Source: HUD CHAS, 2010–2015, and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, 2016–2018

50

Real Estate and Construction

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


Crossroads of the West Cumulative permitted commercial construction $700

$600

$500

Millions

$400

$300

$200

$100

$0

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

Industrial/Warehouse 2020 2016-19 Average

May

Jun

Office

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Retail 2020 2016-19 Average

2020 2016-19 Average

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Real Estate and Construction

51


May I take your order? Year-over seated diners in U.S. and Utah Online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins 40%

SLC shifts from Orange to Yellow restriction level

20%

0%

Year-over Change

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

-100%

-120% Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

May-20

Jun-20 Utah

Jul-20

Aug-20

Sep-20

Oct-20

Nov-20

United States

Note: From a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network Source: OpenTable.com

52

Travel and Tourism

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


Tourism struggling Leisure and hospitality taxable sales, 2019â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2020 Total sales and change from prior year $900

$800 +11.9% $700

+9.1%

-12.6%

Millions of Dollars

$600

-12.8%

-5.0%

-20.0% -37.3%

$500

-31.1% $400 -52.2%

$300

$200

$100

$0

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May 2019

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

2020

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Utah State Tax Commission data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Travel and Tourism

53


Tipping welcome Utah leisure and hospitality employment, 2019â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2020 Total jobs and change from prior year 180

160

+7.5%

+8.6%

+4.4%

140 -18.7%

-20.4%

-16.8%

-15.4%

-14.1%

120 Thousands of Jobs

-27.7% 100 -43.1% 80

60

40

20

0

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

2019

2020

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data

54

Travel and Tourism

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


First-class airport awaits your arrival Year-over change in travel-related spending and SLC International Airport passengers, 2019â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2020 20.0%

0.0%

Year-over Change

-20.0%

-40.0%

-60.0%

-80.0%

-100.0%

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Air Passengers

Arts, Ent., & Rec.

Car Rental

U.S. Travel Spending

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Accommodations

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Salt Lake City International Airport, Utah State Tax Commission, and U.S. Travel Association data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Travel and Tourism

55


This land is your land Year-over change in Utah park visitation, 2019â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2020

100% 80% 60%

Year-over Change

40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% -100%

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May State Parks

June

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

National Parks

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of National Park Service and Utah State Parks data

56

Travel and Tourism

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


Come to Zion Year-over change in hotel occupancy rates, Springdale vs. downtown Salt Lake City, 2019â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2020

40.0%

20.0%

Year-over Change

0.0%

-20.0%

-40.0%

-60.0%

-80.0%

-100.0% Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

Nay Springdale

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Downtown Salt Lake City

Note: Republication or other re-use of this data without the express written permission of STR, Inc. is strictly prohibited. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of STR, Inc., data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Travel and Tourism

57


Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s power cocktail Fuel mix of electric power generation in Utah, 2020

Fossil Fuels, 86.5%

Solar, 6.9%

Hydroelectric, 2.8% Wind, 2.2% Geothermal, 1.0% Biomass, 0.2% Other, 0.3%

Note: Data are through September. Fossil fuels consist of coal, natural gas, petroleum liquids, and other gases. Other comprises cogeneration, waste heat, and non-biogenic municipal solid waste. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

58

Energy and Environment

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


Uinta Basin challenge Rotary drilling rig count in Utah, 2010–2020 40

35

Yearly Average of Rotary Rigs

30

25

20

15

10

5

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

0

Note: 2020 data represents average of counts through August. Source: Baker Hughes U.S. Annual Average Rig Count by State (2010–2016) and North America Monthly Rig Count by State (2017–2020)

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Energy and Environment

59


Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s oil price threshold West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices, 2020

$70 $60 $50

Nominal Price per Barrel

$40 $30 $20 $10 $0 -$10 -$20

Oct-20

Sep-20

Aug-20

Jul-20

Jun-20

May-20

Apr-20

Mar-20

Feb-20

-$40

Jan-20

-$30

Projected range of WTI prices needed to cover Uinta Basin operating expenses

Source: Energy Information Administration (Cushing, OK WTI Spot Prices FOB)

60

Energy and Environment

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


Drive less, use less, fly much less Year-over change in U.S. petroleum consumption, 2019â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2020

20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% -50.0% -60.0% -70.0% -80.0%

Gasoline

Distillate

Oct 23, 2020

Oct 09, 2020

Sep 25, 2020

Sep 11, 2020

Aug 28, 2020

Aug 14, 2020

Jul 31, 2020

Jul 17, 2020

Jul 03, 2020

Jun 19, 2020

Jun 05, 2020

May 22, 2020

May 08, 2020

Apr 24, 2020

Apr 10, 2020

Mar 27, 2020

Mar 13, 2020

Feb 28, 2020

Feb 14, 2020

Jan 31, 2020

Jan 17, 2020

Jan 03, 2020

-90.0%

Jet Fuel

Note: Distillate consists mostly of diesel fuel Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Weekly Product Supplied

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Energy and Environment

61


Mask up, Utah COVID-19 cases per 1,000,000 population by state December 1, 2020 120,000

100,000

80,000

UT = 61,044 60,000

40,000

20,000

ND SD IA WI NE UT MT IL WY MN ID KS TN RI AR MS AL IN LA OK MO NV FL NM AZ AK GA TX SC CO KY MI NJ DE OH NC NY MD CT MA CA DC PA VA WV WA OR NH HI ME VT

0

Note: Despite having a high rate of COVID-19 cases, Utah has maintained a low death rate compared to other states. On Dec. 1, 2020, Utah had the 6th lowest number of COVID-19 deaths per million population (272). That said, this rate is increasing. By Dec. 10, 2020, the rate was 310. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation estimates based on Johns Hopkins Universityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) and 2019 Population data from U.S. Census Bureau

62

Health

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


Still hitting us hard Cumulative COVID-19 case-fatality rates in Utah vs. U.S. March 2020â&#x20AC;&#x201C;December 2020 7.0%

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0% Mar

Apr.

May

Jun.

U.S. Cumulative Case Fatality Rate

Jul.

Aug.

Sep.

Oct.

Nov.

Utah Cumulative Case Fatality Rate

Note: Case-fatality rate is COVID-19 deaths as a percent of total COVID-19 cases. COVID-19 data as of December 3, 2020. Utah's young population partly contributes to its low fatality rate. Source: Utah Department of Health COVID-19 Surveillance; Johns Hopkins University (JHU) Coronavirus Resource Center

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Health

63


Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s COVID-19 multicultural disparities Utah COVID-19 hospitalization rate per 1,000 cases and mortality rate per 100,000 population by race and ethnicity December 1, 2020 Native Hawaiian/ Pacific Islander

94.9 71.4

American Indian/ Alaska Native

Utah Small Areas with Highest COVID-19 Case Rates December 9, 2020

91.8

Crude Case Rate / 100,000 Population

76.2

Black/African American

51.9 18.9 50.4

Asian

25.9 43.7

Hispanic or Latino

36.9

White alone, not Hispanic or Latino

41.3 23.0 42.3

Other race

NA

14,098

Provo (East City Center)

11,877

Provo (West City Center)

11,297

Glendale

11,127

San Juan (excluding Blanding/Monticello)

10,626

West Valley (East)

10,470

Kearns

10,270

Rose Park

10,178

West Valley (Center)

10,095

West Valley (West)

9.3

Unknown

North Orem

9,949

NA 0

10

20

30

40

Hospitalization Rate / 1,000 Cases

50

60

70

80

90

100

Mortality Rate / 100,000 Population

Note: Utah's statewide average hospitalization rate was 41.7 per 1,000 cases and average mortality rate was 28.7 per 100,000 population as of December 1, 2020. Source: Utah Department of Health COVID-19 Surveillance

64

Health

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


High anxiety Share of adults who report anxiety disorder symptoms in Utah vs. U.S., 2020 40%

38.0%

35%

30% 37.2% 25%

20%

15% 8.2%

10%

Nov 11 Nov 23

Oct 28 Nov 9

Oct 14 Oct 26

Sep 30 Oct 12

Sep 16 Sep 28

Sep 2 Sep 14

Aug 19 Aug 31

July 16 July 21

July 9 July 14

July 2 July 7

June 25 June 30

June 18 June 23

June 11 June 16

June 4 June 9

May 28 June 2

May 21 May 26

May 14 May 19

May 7 May 12

0%

Apr 23 May 5

5%

2020 U.S. 2020

Utah 2020

U.S. 2019 Average

Note: Adults age 18 and older. U.S. 2019 average is from January to June. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey, 2020; National Center for Health Statistics, National Health Interview Survey, 2019

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Health

65


Dr. Zoom Utah telehealth visits by type January–August 2020 weekly totals 25,000

Number of Telehealth Visits

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0 Jan

Feb

Mar Mental Health

Apr

May

Other

Note: Includes HCPCS/CPT procedure codes in the “Telehealth” category from the Clinic Classifications Software for Services and Procedures. Also includes any procedure otherwise indicated as being delivered via telehealth, i.e., Place of Service Code 02, CPT Modifiers 95 and GT. Source: Utah All Payer Claims Database (APCD). From: Preliminary COVID-19 Healthcare Trends: A Snapshot from Utah’s All Payer Claims Database & Healthcare Facility Database. (2020, December). Utah Department of Health Office of Health Care Statistics.

66

Health

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


Another unintended consequence of COVID-19 Utah childhood vaccinations 2019 compared to 2020

Number of Vaccine Administrations

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun 2019

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2020

Note: The claims for the number of vaccines administered to children in 2020 largely mirrored 2019 trends for the months of January and February. In March 2020, a notable gap developed, which persists throughout the period of observation. Unlike some medical services which can be provided via telehealth, immunizations must be administered in person. Totals include diphtheria, tetanus and acellular pertussis (DTaP); polio (IPV); measles, mumps and rubella (MMR); haemophilus influenza type B (HiB); hepatitis B (HepB); chicken pox (VZV); and pneumococcal conjugate (PCV). Represents vaccines included in “Childhood Immunization Status Combination 3”, as depicted by NCQA. Source: Utah All Payer Claims Database (APCD). From: Preliminary COVID-19 Healthcare Trends: A Snapshot from Utah’s All Payer Claims Database & Healthcare Facility Database. (2020, December). Utah Department of Health Office of Health Care Statistics.

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Health

67


Public health spending in Utah Public health funding per capita by state, 2019

WA $96 OR $81

NV $53 CA $114

MT $120 ID $150

UT $80

AZ $53

ND $113

WY $112

CO $101

MN $85

WI $55

SD $113 IA $91

NE $98

IL $73

KS $60 OK $89

NM $220 TX $60

AK $281

NH $82 VT $144

MO $57

OH $53

IN $53

KY $87

PA $57 WV $140 VA $77

TN $99

AR $108 LA $89

NY $148

MI $58

MS $85

AL $115

GA $76

FL $64

HI $192

NC $59 SC $80

ME $99

MA $137 RI $141 CT $86 NJ $66 DE $111 MD $104

Health Ranking by State 1–10 11–20 21–30 30–40 41–50

Note: State dollars dedicated to public health and federal dollars directed to states per person by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Health Resources & Services Administration (2-year estimate). Source: America's Health Rankings analysis of Trust for America’s Health; U.S. HHS; U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018, United Health Foundation, AmericasHealthRankings.org, Accessed 2020.

68

Health

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


One big, happy family Multigenerational households, 2014–2018 Percent of total households Cache 3.0% Rich 0.6% Weber 9% Davis 4.4%* Morgan 4.0% Daggett 0.0%

Box Elder 4.0%

Tooele 3.8%

Salt Lake 4.5%*

Summit 1.4%

Wasatch Duchesne 3.6% 4.4%* Utah 4.5%*

Juab 4.0%

Millard 3.1%

Beaver 3.2%

Carbon 4.6%* Sanpete 4.3%* Sevier 2.7% Piute 3.6%

Iron 2.4% Washington 3.6%

Uintah 4.9%*

Emery 3.0%

Grand 2.8%

Wayne 2.3% 4.1%

San Juan 6.8%*

Kane 1.6%

*Higher than State Share: 4.2%

≤1.6%

≤3.2%

≤4.1%

≤4.9%

≤6.8%

Source: American Community Survey 2018 5-Year Estimates

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Demographics

69


Moving next door Current Utah residents who lived in a different western state one year ago, 2019 58,221 new residents (61%) are from the highlighted states

WA 4.7% MT 1.4% OR 3.0%

ID 7.1%

WY 1.6%

NV 4.6%

UT CA 18.6%

CO 8.2%

AZ 6.6% NM 0.7% TX 5.1%

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 1-Year American Community Survey Estimates

70

Demographics

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s melting pot Place of birth for Utah residents, 2019 Born in Utah

Born outside of Utah

69%

9.3%

31%

7.5%

2.5%

California

Idaho

Foreign Country

Arizona 1.6% Texas 1.4% Colorado 1.3% Washington 1.2% Nevada 1.0% Illinois 0.8% New York 0.8% Oregon 0.6%

Note: Areas shown have at least 20,000 Utahns born there. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 1-Year Estimates

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Demographics

71


To everything there is a season Seasonal births and deaths indexes for Utah and six largest counties, 2001â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2017

Weber County Davis County Region

Births

Cache County

Salt Lake County Utah County Washington County State of Utah Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Fewer Births

Nov

Dec

More Births 90

95

100

105

Cache County Weber County Davis County Region

Deaths

Oct

Salt Lake County Utah County Washington County State of Utah Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Fewer Deaths

Oct

Nov

Dec

More Deaths 90

95

100

105

110

Note: An index over 100 indicates more births or deaths occur in that month on average, and vice versa. See Wilson, T., McDonald, P., & Temple, J. (2020). The geographical patterns of birth seasonality in Australia. Demographic Research, 43(40), 1185â&#x20AC;&#x201C;1198. Sources: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, Utah Department of Health

72

Demographics

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


Utah County...baby county Natural increase in Salt Lake County and Utah County, 2010â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2020

14,000

13,000

12,000

Natural Increase

11,000

10,000

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Salt Lake County

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Utah County

Source: Utah Population Committee, 2020

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Demographics

73


Utah County on the rise Net migration as a share of population change, 2020

Rest of Utah, 11%

Utah County, 42%

Iron County, 4%

Tooele County, 5%

Washington County, 26%

Salt Lake County, 12%

Source: Utah Population Committee, 2020

74

Demographics

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


Live here, work there Utah commuting data, 2018

Top 10 Commuting Counties County

Workforce

Outbound Commuters

Percent of Workforce

Top 10 Live & Work Counties County

Workforce

Outbound Commuters

Percent of Workforce

Morgan

5,291

4,108

77.60%

Salt Lake

Tooele

32,459

24,199

74.60%

Washington

Wasatch

15,985

11,399

71.30%

Grand

5,600

1,361

24.30%

781

504

64.50%

San Juan

4,213

1,273

30.20%

Davis

150,699

95,330

63.30%

Kane

3,280

1,187

36.20%

Piute

436

276

63.30%

Utah

267,633

97,104

36.30%

346

210

60.70%

Millard

5,402

1,990

36.80%

27,135

16,051

59.20%

Beaver

2,383

881

37.00%

4,759

2,786

58.50%

Cache

60,911

22,844

37.50%

21,904

11,829

54.00%

Garfield

984

374

38.00%

Rich

Daggett Box Elder Juab Summit

570,377

93,138

16.30%

64,412

13,904

21.60%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap, 2018 American Community Survey

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Demographics

75


But after COVID, commutes changed COVID-19 Telework: Top-10 states

District of Columbia

66%

Utah

50%

Massachusetts

48%

Colorado

47%

Maryland

46%

Connecticut

45%

New Jersey

44%

Vermont

44%

Virginia

43%

Illinois

43% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Note: Top 10 percentages of adults living in households where at least one adult has substituted some or all of their typical in-person work for telework because of the coronavirus pandemic Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey Weeks 13-19 (August 19â&#x20AC;&#x201C;November 23, 2020).

76

Demographics

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


We like to be counted Top-10 self-response rates by state for 2020 Census Utah ranked 10th of all states with 71% of Utahns self-responding to the 2020 Census

WA 72.4% MN 75.1%

UT 71.0%

NE 71.9%

IA 71.5%

WI 72.4%

MI 71.3%

IL 71.4% VA 71.5%

MD 71.2%

Nationally, 67% of people self-responded to the 2020 Census. Utahns beat that. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Response Rates as of October 28, 2020

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Demographics

77


Probability of making informed decisions

TM

The whole point

Accurate data and information

78

Utah Informed

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021


K E M C . G A R D N E R P O L I C Y I N S T I T U T E S TA F F A N D A D V I S O R S Leadership Team

Staff

Natalie Gochnour, Associate Dean and Director Jennifer Robinson, Associate Director Shelley Kruger, Accounting and Finance Manager Colleen Larson, Administrative Manager Dianne Meppen, Director of Survey Research Pamela S. Perlich, Director of Demographic Research Juliette Tennert, Chief Economist Nicholas Thiriot, Communications Director James A. Wood, Ivory-Boyer Senior Fellow

Max Backlund, Senior Research Associate Samantha Ball, Senior Research Associate Mallory Bateman, Senior Research Analyst Andrea Thomas Brandley, Research Associate Marin Christensen, Research Associate Mike Christensen, Scholar-in-Residence Phil Dean, Public Finance Senior Research Fellow John C. Downen, Deputy Director of Economic and Public Policy Research Dejan Eskic, Senior Research Fellow Emily Harris, Demographer Michael T. Hogue, Senior Research Statistician Mike Hollingshaus, Senior Demographer Thomas Holst, Senior Energy Analyst Meredith King, Research Associate Jennifer Leaver, Senior Tourism Analyst Levi Pace, Senior Research Economist Shannon Simonsen, Research Coordinator Joshua Spolsdoff, Research Economist Paul Springer, Senior Graphic Designer Laura Summers, Senior Health Care Analyst Natalie Young, Research Analyst

Faculty Advisors Matt Burbank, College of Social and Behavioral Science Adam Meirowitz, David Eccles School of Business Elena Patel, David Eccles School of Business Nathan Seegert, David Eccles School of Business

Senior Advisors Jonathan Ball, Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst Gary Cornia, Marriott School of Business Wes Curtis, Community-at-Large Theresa Foxley, EDCUtah Dan Griffiths, Tanner LLC Darin Mellott, CBRE Chris Redgrave, Community-at-Large Wesley Smith, Western Governors University


Partners in the Community

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Advisory Board

The following individuals and entities help support the research mission of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.

Conveners

Legacy Partners

Board

The Gardner Company Intermountain Healthcare Clark and Christine Ivory Foundation KSL and Deseret News Larry H. & Gail Miller Family Foundation Mountain America Credit Union Salt Lake City Corporation Salt Lake County University of Utah Health Utah Governorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Office of Economic Development WCF Insurance Zions Bank

Scott Anderson, Co-Chair Gail Miller, Co-Chair Doug Anderson Deborah Bayle Cynthia A. Berg Roger Boyer Wilford Clyde Sophia DiCaro Cameron Diehl Lisa Eccles Spencer P. Eccles

Executive Partners Mark and Karen Bouchard The Boyer Company Salt Lake Chamber

Sustaining Partners Clyde Companies Dominion Energy Staker Parson Materials and Construction

Michael O. Leavitt Mitt Romney

Christian Gardner Kem C. Gardner Kimberly Gardner Natalie Gochnour Brandy Grace Clark Ivory Mike S. Leavitt Derek Miller Ann Millner Sterling Nielsen Cristina Ortega Jason Perry Ray Pickup Gary B. Porter Taylor Randall Jill Remington Love

Brad Rencher Josh Romney Charles W. Sorenson James Lee Sorenson Vicki Varela Ruth V. Watkins Ex Officio (invited) Governor Spencer Cox Speaker Brad Wilson Senate President Stuart Adams Representative Brian King Senator Karen Mayne Mayor Jenny Wilson Mayor Erin Mendenhall

Salt Lake Chamber Board of Directors Craig Wagstaff, Chair Gary Porter, Vice Chair Nathan Callister Wilford Clyde John Dahlstrom Theresa Foxley Natalie Gochnour Kay Hall Gary Hoogeveen

Clark Ivory Greg Johnson Fred Lampropoulos Dr. Donna Milavetz Derek Miller Abby Murtagh Sterling Nielsen Scott Parson Ray Pickup

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

I

Thomas S. Monson Center 411 E. South Temple Street Salt Lake City, UT 84111 801-585-5618 gardner.utah.edu

I

I

DAV I D E CC L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S UNIVERSITY OF UTAH

Gaby Poirier Nico Bamberger Priskos Joel Raup Steve Starks Linda Wardell

Profile for David Eccles School of Business

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2021