Utah informed 2018

UTAH INFORMED V I S U A L

I N T E L L E C T I O N

F O R

DAV I D E CC L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S In Par tnership with the Salt Lake Chamber

2 0 1 8

KEM C. GARDNER POLIC Y INSTITUTE

We are an honest broker of

INFORMED RESEARCH that guides

INFORMED DISCUSSIONS and leads to

INFORMED DECISIONSâ„¢

January 2018

D

uring a trade mission to Israel in September 2017, Utah Gov. Gary Herbert shared with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a striking bronze statue of the Mormon pioneers on their trek west. Netanyahu reportedly studied the statue with sincerity and interest and then said, “They

must have been hardworking, tough people.”

The phrase captures so much of what it means to live and work in Utah. Utahns are industrious people who seize opportunities, face challenges and persevere. We don’t back away from trials and we always work hard.

In this, the third edition of Utah Informed, we show the fruits of

This year, many businesses and individuals have joined the

this hard work and the challenges that remain. The tables, charts,

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute as “Partners in the Community.”

ideas, and schematics force the viewer to consider a compelling

These partners help fund the public purpose research of the

trend, an innovative idea or an aspirational thought. We call it

institute so we can help Utah prosper. Our goal is to be honest

“visual intellection” because the information both inspires and

brokers of informed research, that guides informed discussions,

causes discomfort. We want to make your think.

and leads to INFORMED DECISIONS™.

We hope this edition of Utah Informed will help you make wise decisions in 2018.

Natalie Gochnour

Taylor Randall

Lane Beattie

Associate Dean, David Eccles School of Business Director, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Dean, David Eccles School of Business

President & CEO, Salt Lake Chamber

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

1

Contents Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Table of Contents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

Current Affairs 2017 discoveries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Words to know in 2018. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Potential 2026 and 2030 Olympic Winter Games hosts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Top Google searches in 2017. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Death rates for firearm-related injuries in the United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Pew poll on sexual harrassment and assault . . . . . . . . . . 10 Evil empire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Economy National & Global US business cycle status. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 World business cycle status . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Duration of US economic expansions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Odds of a US recession in next 12 months . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Jobs & Income Headwinds and tailwinds in 2018. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Index of Utah and United States employment. . . . . . . . . 20 Utah employment growth rate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Index of Utah public and private sector employment. . . 22 Labor force participation rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23 Change in Utah labor force participation rates. . . . . . . . 24 The productive middle?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Occupations with top location quotients . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Active female physicians as a percent of all active physicians. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Unemployment and labor underutilization . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Labor force statistics for Utah’s population with disabilities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Proprietor jobs per 100 wage and salary jobs in Utah. . . 30 The silent recession. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Job growth and decline in Utah’s counties. . . . . . . . . . . . 32 The looming question . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Annual change in per capita personal income . . . . . . . . 34

Federal Funds Target Rate and selected interest rates. . . 16 Hutchin’s Center Fiscal Impact Measure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Top corporate income tax rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Editor-in-chief: Juliette Tennert 2

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Real Estate & Construction

Utah’s top export industries and trading partners. . . . . 50

Annual change in Employment Cost Index. . . . . . . . . . . . 35

International visitor spending shares. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

Median cumulative days on market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

State and local tax burdens. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .52

Median sales price existing single-family homes. . . . . . 37

Hachman Index of GDP diversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

New housing units and households in Utah. . . . . . . . . . . 38 Energy and Natural Resources

Demographics Creating our destiny. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

Distribution of diverted water in Utah. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

Projected 50-year population growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

States’ contribution to nation’s total solar power generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

Current and projected dependency ratios for Utah’s counties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

Portion electric power generation from renewable sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

Total fertility rates for Utah and the United States. . . . . 57

Competitiveness Total economic impacts of the defense sector in Utah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Venture capital deals per $1 million of state GDP. . . . . . 43 Ideal metro location for next Amazon headquarters. . . 44

Hayward and Mitchell rookie season statistics . . . . . . . . 58 Changes in Autism Spectrum Disorder prevalence. . . . 59 Opportunity index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 Educational attainment of migrants. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61

Education

Natural Gas Prices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

Utah high school graduation rates by race and ethnicity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

Arts organizations and venues per 100,000 population. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

Average ACT scores. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Growth and decline in Utah’s school districts. . . . . . . . . . 64

Freight shipments originating in Utah. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48

Fall 2016 USHE enrollment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

Workers’ Compensation premium rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

Globalization and Utah. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

3

Contents (continued) Health and Wellbeing

Fiscal Considerations

Per capita health care expenditures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66

State fiscal practices report card. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

Health care expenditures as a share of GDP. . . . . . . . . . . 67

Changes in Utah’s sales and income tax bases. . . . . . . . . 75

Percent of population without health insurance . . . . . . 68 Active physicians per 100,000 population. . . . . . . . . . . . . 69

Growth in Utah’s economy and major revenue collections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76

Opioid overdose deaths per 100,000 population. . . . . . 70

US Personal Consumption Distribution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77

Retail opioid prescriptions dispensed per 100 persons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

Status of state Medicaid expansion decisions. . . . . . . . . 78

Firearm-related death rates by type. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 Number of days air quality index exceeded 100 across the Wasatch Front. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .73

4

Shedding Light Authentic engagement in public deliberation. . . . . . . . .79 Informed decisions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

2017 discoveries n

Dinosaur – The largest-known dinosaur footprint, which is over 130 million years old and five and three-quarters feet long, was found in western Australia.

n

Pig-nosed frog – A new mountain-dwelling purple pig-nosed frog was discovered in India. It spends most of its life underground, only surfacing to mate during rainstorms.

n

Homo sapiens – The oldest-known Homo sapiens bones were found in Morocco and are 300,000 years old, over 100,000 years older than the previous oldest.

n

Egyptian tombs – Two new Egyptian tombs were discovered and excavated which date around 3,400 years old.

n

USS Indianapolis – The wreckage of the USS Indianapolis, a US Navy cruiser, was discovered after having been sunk in 1945.

n

Aztec sports – A 500-year old Aztec ball court was uncovered by archaeologists and is complete with a game area and spectator seating.

n

Viking women – DNA evidence was discovered which proved that Viking women had been warriors at least 1,000 years ago.

n

Cosmic storm – Jupiter’s Great Red Spot – a 350 year-old storm – has increased in size to one-and-a-half times the size of Earth this year after shrinking the past 15 years.

n

Icebergs – A 2,240 square mile iceberg – roughly the size of Utah County – broke off the Larsen Ice Shelf, Antarctica.

n

n

Pistol shrimp – A new type of pistol shrimp was discovered near Panama which uses a claw to make such loud noises that surrounding fish can be stunned or even killed. The discoverers named it Synalpheus pinkfloydi, after Pink Floyd, for its volume intensity and deafeningly loud pink claw.

Faux wombs – A faux womb has been invented which helps lambs develop after very premature birth and will likely be used on humans in the near future.

n

Hidden void – Inside the Great Pyramid of Giza, a 100-foot long hidden void was discovered using muon radiography. It is unknown what it contains or how to access it.

n

Living planets – A system of seven Earth-size planets orbiting an ultra-cool dwarf was discovered. NASA believes at least three but likely more contain water and possible life.

n

Ancient tools – The ancient port of Corinth is being excavated to reveal a peek into the Corinthian trade, complete with 2,000-year-old pottery, wooden spoons, pulleys, and other tools.

n

Monster bird – A penguin fossil belonging to a 6 foot and 220 pound bird was found in New Zealand. The extinct species was named Kumimanu bicaeae – “Monster Bird” in Maori.

n

Hospitable planet – A nearly Earth-sized and possibly hospitable planet was discovered only 11 light-years away orbiting a red star.

n

Paralysis cure? – A system which attaches to the brain and transmits intentions to parts of the body could counteract paralysis.

Source: Compiled from public sources by the Kem C. Gardner Institute

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Current Affairs

5

Words and phrases to know in 2018 cat·a·lyze \ ˈka-tə-ˌlīz \ to bring about, inspire: The Utah State Prison relocation opens land that can be used to catalyze the growth of the entire area. ci·vil·i·ty \ sə-ˈvi-lə-tē \ ability to disagree productively with others, respecting their sincerity and decency: Utahns value civility in the public square. cour·age \ ˈkər-ij \ mental or moral strength to venture, persevere, and withstand danger, fear, or difficulty: She had the courage to speak truth to power. dil·i·gence \ ˈdi-lə-jən(t)s \ steady, earnest, and energetic effort: The Federal Reserve continues to demonstrate diligence in normalizing interest rates. dis·ci·pline \ ˈdi-sə-plən \ orderly or prescribed conduct or pattern of behavior: Fiscal discipline remains an important priority to many congressmen and senators. eight straight \ ˈāt ˈstrāt \ an 8-game rivalry winning streak: Most agree that eight straight is a 2018 inevitable in the Utah-BYU matchup.

6

Current Affairs

grit \ ˈgrit \ firmness of mind or spirit; unyielding courage in the face of hardship or danger: The first responders showed their grit in rescuing concert goers on the Vegas strip. in·teg·ri·ty \ in-ˈte-grə-tē \ the quality of being honest: Utahns value integrity in their elected officials. light \ ˈlīt \ something that makes vision possible: The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute sheds light for Utah decision makers, not heat. pub·lic vir·tue \ ˈpə-blik ˈvər-(ˌ)chü \ a desire to achieve the common good: Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox, Speaker Greg Hughes, Mayor McAdams and Mayor Biskupski applied public virtue in addressing homeless services. re·sil·ience \ ri-ˈzil-yən(t)s \ an ability to recover from or adjust to misfortune or change: The eleven rural Utah counties that have lost jobs since 2007 continue to show economic resilience because of the hardworking people.

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Who will host the 2026 and 2030 Olympic Winter Games?

Reno-Tahoe

Calgary, Canada

Sion, Switzerland

Sapporo, Japan

Denver

Salt Lake City

Source: Utah Olympic Legacy Foundation

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Current Affairs

7

Signs of our times Top US Google searches in 2017 Searches

People

1) Hurricane Irma 2) Matt Lauer 3) Tom Petty 4) Super Bowl 5) Las Vegas shooting 6) Mayweather vs McGregor fight 7) Solar eclipse 8) Hurricane Harvey 9) Aaron Hernandez 10) Fidget Spinner

1) Matt Lauer 2) Meghan Markle 3) Harvey Weinstein 4) Michael Flynn 5) Kevin Spacey 6) Bill O’Reilly 7) Melania Trump 8) Kathy Griffin 9) Milo Yiannopoulos 10) Gal Gadot

What is...

News

1) What is DACA? 2) What is Bitcoin?

3) What is a solar eclipse?

4) What is ANTIFA? 5) What is net neutrality?

6) What is covfefe?

7) What is the antikythera mechanism?

8) What is a fidget spinner?

9) What is the Paris Climate Agreement?

10) What is a hurricane?

1) Hurricane Irma 2) Las Vegas shooting 3) Solar Eclipse 4) Hurricane Harvey 5) Bitcoin Price 6) North Korea 7) Hurricane Jose 8) Hurricane Maria 9) April the Giraffe 10) DACA

Source: Google

8

Current Affairs

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Firearm-related deaths on the rise Death rates for firearm-related injuries in the United States Deaths per 100,000 resident population, all ages, age-adjusted

14.3

14.8

14.6

11.8 11.1

1970

1980

1990

10.2

10.1

10.3

2000

2010

2014

2015

2016

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Center for Health Statistics Health, United States, 2016 Report and Mortality Dashboard

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Current Affairs

9

Pew survey suggests many Americans believe reports of sexual misconduct reflect societal problems Percent of Americans who say recent allegations of sexual harrassment and assault are:

Mainly incidents of individual misconduct Mainly reflective of widespread problems in society

Gender

Total

Men

28%

34%

60%

Women

22%

Political Affiliation

Education

College grad + Some college HS or less

Rep/Lean Rep Dem/Lean Dem

66%

71%

19% 33%

77% 63%

31%

34%

60%

61% 25%

70%

Note: Don’t know responses not shown.

Source: Pew Research Center Survey of U.S. adults conducted November 29 - December 4, 2017

10

Current Affairs

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Ronald Reagan Evil Empire Speech, March 8, 1983

“While America’s military strength is important, let me add here that I’ve always maintained that the struggle now going on for the world will never be decided by bombs or rockets, by armies or military might. The real crisis we face today is a spiritual one; at root, it is a test of moral will and faith.”

Ronald Reagan

Source: Remarks at the Annual Convention of the National Association of Evangelicals in Orlando, Florida, March 8, 1983.

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Current Affairs

11

State economies continue to expand, mostly Business cycle status, end of 2017

Expanding Recovering At risk In recession

Source: Moody’s Analytics

12

Economy

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Synchronized global expansion Business cycle status, end of 2017

n Expanding n Recovering n At risk n In Recession

Source: Moody’s Analytics

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Economy

13

Come May, US economic expansion second longest ever Duration of US economic expansions (Average annual job growth rate)

October 1945

37 months (5.1%)

October 1949

45 months (4.3%)

Expansion Start Date

May 1954

39 months (2.5%)

April 1958

24 months (3.6%)

February 1961

106 months (3.2%)

November 1970

36 months (3.4%)

March 1975

58 months (3.5%)

December 1982

92 months (2.8%)

March 1991

120 months (2.0%)

November 2001

73 months (0.9%)

July 2009

102 months as of Jan. 2018 (1.4%)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Months

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of National Bureau of Economic Research and Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics data

14

Economy

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Economists and their crystal balls‌ Odds of a US recession in next 12 months

30% 27.3%

25% 21.9%

20%

15%

14.6%

10%

5%

0%

Source: Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Economy

15

Normalizing monetary policy, finally Federal funds target rate and selected interest rates

6.0% Federal Funds

5.5%

3-Month Treasury Bill

10-Year Treasury Note

30-Year Fixed Forecast

5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5%

2018:4

2018:3

2018:2

2018:1

2017:4

2017:3

2017:2

2017:1

2016:4

2016:3

2016:2

2016:1

2015:4

2015:3

2015:2

2015:1

2014:4

2014:3

2014:2

2014:1

2013:4

2013:3

2013:2

2013:1

2012:4

2012:3

2012:2

2012:1

0.0%

Source: IHS Global Insight

16

Economy

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Government fiscal policy had minimal impacts on the US economy in 2017 Hutchin’s Center Fiscal Impact Measure Combined effect of federal, state and local spending and tax policies on US GDP growth

+3.0%

Quarterly impact 4-quarter moving average

Positive impact: government is contributing to GDP growth

+2.5% +2.0% +1.5% +1.0%

0 -0.5% -1.0%

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

-1.5% 2001

Negative impact: government is restraining GDP growth

+0.5%

Source: Brookings Institution Hutchin’s Center Fiscal Impact Measure Q3 2017 Update

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Economy

17

US corporate tax rate an outlier Top corporate income tax rates, 2017 Arranged by GDP

60.0% G7, China, Mexico All other countries 50.0% United States 40.0%

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0% GDP < $100 Billion

$100 Billion < GDP < $1 Trillion

$1 Trillion < GDP

Note: Combined national and subnational rates.

Source: KPMG Corporate Tax Rate Table and Congressional Budget Office International Comparisons of Corporate Income Tax Rates report

18

Economy

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Headwinds and tailwinds in 2018

“Despite positive trends in the economy, there are headwinds. Rising business costs, a tight labor supply, and a shortage of housing are creating growth challenges. The consensus forecast of state economists predicts moderating – but still healthy – job and wage growth, low unemployment, and continuing net in-migration.”

Natalie Gochnour

Source: Utah Business Magazine, October 26, 2017

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Economy

19

Utah nearly two years ahead of nation in expansion Index of Utah and United States employment 100 = December 2007 pre-recession peak employment

120

110 Nov-12 100 May-14 90

80

70 Utah United States 2000 2000 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017

60

Note: Y-axis does not start at zero.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employer Survey data and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) U.S. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions data

20

Economy

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Recent job growth postings dip below historical average Deviation of Utah employment growth rate from historical average

5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% -7.0% -8.0% -9.0% 2017

2016

2014

2013

2012

2010

2009

2008

2006

2005

2004

2002

2001

2000

1998

1997

1996

1994

1993

1992

1990

1989

1988

1986

1985

1984

1982

1981

1980

-10.0%

Note: The long-term average annual employment growth rate since 1960 is 3.1%.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employer Survey data and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) U.S. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions data

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Economy

21

As weâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;d expectâ&#x20AC;Ś Index of Utah public and private sector employment 100 = Average monthly employment in 1997

160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70

Private Sector Public Sector 1990 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

60

Note: Y-axis does not start at zero.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employer Survey data and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) U.S. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions data

22

Economy

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Demographics, economics, and changing labor force participation Labor force participation rates

Percent of the population aged 16 and over in the labor force

76.0%

Utah United States

74.0%

72.0%

70.0%

68.0%

66.0%

64.0%

62.0%

60.0%

Note: Y-axis does not start at zero.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Economy

23

Shifting labor force participation dynamics Change in Utah labor force participation rates, 1997-2017 By selected working-age groups

Males

18.1%*

Females

11.4%* 8.3%*

3.9%

2.9%

-1.7% -4.2%

-1.7%*

-2.1% -1.7%

-3.7%* -6.3%* -8.3%*

-12.6%*

-11.6%*

16-17

-10.8%*

18-19

20-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65+

*Statistically different from zero.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of IPUMS Current Population Survey data (Steven Ruggles, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Josiah Grover, and Matthew Sobek. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 7.0 [dataset]. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota, 2017)

24

Economy

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

The productive middle?

“…The future of this country is not going to be found in protecting jobs that are long gone or in catering to the fears of aging whites. There is a raging need for a movement that embraces economic dynamism, global engagement and social support — that is part Milton Friedman on economic policy, Ronald Reagan on foreign policy and Franklin Roosevelt on welfare policy.”

David Brookes

Source: “The Future of the American Center,” New York Times, Nov. 29, 2016

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Economy

25

Concentration of occupations in Utah Occupations with top location quotients

Salt Lake St. City George

ProvoOrem

OgdenClear eld

Logan

State of Utah

State of Utah and its metropolitan statistical areas

Forest and Conservation Technicians

4.6

Roof Bolters, Mining

4.7

Audio-Visual and Multimedia Collections Specialists

4.9

Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers

23.8

Food Batchmakers

10.8

Helpers--Painters, Paperhangers, Plasterers, and Stucco Masons

9.1

Tax Examiners and Collectors, and Revenue Agents

17.4

Computer and Information Research Scientists Tapers

8.0 6.9

Umpires, Referees, and Other Sports O cials Audio-Visual and Multimedia Collections Specialists Foundry Mold and Coremakers

13.6 7.7 6.6

Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents and Travel Clerks Metal-Re ning Furnace Operators and Tenders Mining and Geological Engineers, Including Mining Safety Engineers

8.7 6.8 6.3

Audio-Visual and Multimedia Collections Specialists Residential Advisors Tour Guides and Escorts

9.8 8.2 7.3

Note: Location quotients (LQs) measure a regionâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s occupational concentration relative the nation. For example, with an LQ of 4.6, Forest and Conservation Technicians are more than 4 times more concentrated in Utah than nationally.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Occupational Employment Statistics May 2016 data

26

Economy

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Less than a quarter of Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s doctors are women Active female physicians as a percent of all active physicians, 2016 United States = 34.6%

WA 37.3% MT 29.4% OR 38.0%

ID 25.1% WY 25.4%

NV 27.9%

UT 23.8%

CA 36.4%

AZ 31.5%

VT 40.2%

ND 29.5%

MN 36.1% WI 33.7%

SD 30.8% NE 31.2%

CO 37.4%

NM 37.4%

KS 32.1% OK 29.0%

TX 33.9%

AK 37.3%

ME 35.5%

IA 31.0%

MI 33.9%

NH 34.9% MA 41.3% RI 39.8%

NY 37.9% PA 34.1%

OH IN 33.8% IL WV 37.7% 30.6% 28.9% VA MO KY 36.7% 33.0% 30.4% NC TN 34.2% 29.3% AR SC 27.0% 30.3% AL GA MS 34.1% 26.0% 27.2% LA 30.4%

CT 36.9% NJ 35.9% DE 37.5% MD 39.7% DC 46.8%

< 30.0% 30.0% - 34.9%

FL 29.4%

35.0% - 39.9% 40.0% +

HI 33.7%

Source: American Medical Association 2017 State Physician Workforce Data Report

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Economy

27

Unemployment and underemployment shrinking Alternative measures of unemployment and labor underutilization Percent of labor force, 4-quarter moving average

18%

Involuntary part-time Discouraged and other marginally-attached workers

16%

Headline unemployment

14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2%

2017 Q2

2016 Q4

2016 Q2

2015 Q4

2015 Q2

2014 Q4

2014 Q2

2013 Q4

2013 Q2

2012 Q4

2012 Q2

2011 Q4

2011 Q2

2010 Q4

2010 Q2

2009 Q4

2009 Q2

2008 Q4

2008 Q2

2007 Q4

2007 Q2

2006 Q4

2006 Q2

2005 Q4

2005 Q2

2004 Q4

2004 Q2

2003 Q4

0%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Local Area Unemployment Statistics

28

Economy

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s population with disabilities and the labor force Labor force statistics for Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s population with disabilities, 2016

Population with Disabilities: Ages 18-64

159,024

L A B O R F O R C E S TAT I S T I C S

74,767 + 8,841 = 83,608 Employed

Unemployed

10.6% Jobless Rate

in Labor Force

52.6%

Labor Force Participation Rate

75, 416 Not in Labor Force

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Economy

29

The rise of the self-employed Proprietor jobs per 100 wage and salary jobs in Utah 1970s average = 16.1, 2010 -2016 average = 30.8

35

30

25

20

15

10

0

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

5

Note: Proprietors include sole proprietorships, partnerships, and tax-exempt cooperatives.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Annual Personal Income data

30

Economy

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

The silent recession

“This story of a tale of two Utahs has emerged, where economic growth in our state’s urban areas has caused our state economy to range among the very best economies in the nation, all while there are many rural economies in our state that are actually experiencing decline. Policies that can alleviate this trend include encouraging greater economic diversity and then also cultivating and leveraging existing comparative advantage in rural agriculture, energy, manufacturing, and tourism markets.”

Juliette Tennert

Source: “Utah’s Long-Term Demographic and Economic Projections” Video, produced by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, Nov. 16, 2017

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Economy

31

The tale of two Utahs Job growth and decline in Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s counties Change in employment since 2007 peak, Q4 2007 - Q4 2016

CACHE 12.7%

BOX ELDER -3.2%

RICH -1.9%

WEBER 8.3% DAVIS MORGAN 1.8% 20.0%

TOOELE 3.4%

SALT LAKE 14.1%

UTAH 26.9%

More jobs than 2007 Less jobs than 2007 DAGGETT -19.8%

SUMMIT 18.0%

WASATCH 11.5%

JUAB -1.8%

DUCHESNE 1.5%

UINTAH -16.9%

CARBON -11.9% SANPETE 1.9%

MILLARD 5.1%

EMERY -22.2%

GRAND 14.3%

SEVIER 3.7% BEAVER 8.1%

PIUTE -24.7%

IRON 4.6%

WASHINGTON 15.3%

WAYNE -10.5%

GARFIELD -1.3%

SAN JUAN -3.2%

KANE 4.8%

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data

32

Economy

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

The looming question Handwritten note shared by a rural Utah legislator with the Gardner Policy Institute Director

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Economy

33

Per capita income growth fastest in the nation Annual change in per capita personal income United States = 2.1%

WA 2.9% OR 2.4%

MT 1.1% ID 1.6% WY -2.1%

CA 3.0%

NV 1.0%

UT 3.1%

AZ 2.0%

VT 2.3%

ND -1.6%

MN 1.7%

SD 0.4%

WI 1.7%

NE 0.9% CO 0.2%

NM 1.3%

KS 0.5% OK -2.9%

TX -1.2%

AK -1.6%

MO 1.3% AR 1.8%

LA -1.3%

IN IL 1.9% 3.0%

OH 1.8%

NH 2.6% MA 2.2%

NY 1.8%

MI 2.7%

IA 0.6%

ME 2.9%

PA 1.9%

WV 0.2% VA KY 1.5% 1.2% NC TN 2.1% 2.8% SC 1.9% AL GA MS 2.1% 1.8% 2.8%

FL 1.1%

HI 3.1%

RI 1.3% CT 1.4% NJ 2.1%

DE 1.7% MD DC 3.2% 2.7%

decline 0-0% - 1.9% 2.0% - 2.9% 3.0% +

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Annual Personal Income data

34

Economy

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Benefit growth outpaced wage growth during the first half of the current expansion Annual change in US Employment Cost Index

4.0%

Total compensation Wages and salaries Benefits

3.5%

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0% 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Cost Index

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Economy

35

A sellerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s market Median cumulative days on market Single-family home listings in Wasatch Front counties

2014

2015

2016

2017

61

46

45

36

36

33 26 27 21

20

18

14 10

First Quarter

16

15

9

Second Quarter

Third Quarter

Fourth Quarter

Source: UtahRealEstate.com

36

Economy

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

How high can they go?

Median sales price for existing single-family homes

$350,000 United States

Utah

Nevada

Arizona

Idaho

$300,000

$250,000

$200,000

$150,000

$100,000

$50,000

Source: Moodyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Analytics

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Economy

37

Does Utah have a housing shortage?

New housing units and households in Utah

Households Housing Units 201,126 175,077 176,411

157,744 164,008

156,324

150,669 108,635

105,980 88,670

1970s

1980s

1990s

2000s

2010-2017

Note: 2017 data are estimated.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Population Projections and Ivory Boyer Construction Database

38

Economy

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Agriculture is Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s largest user of diverted water Distribution of diverted water in Utah Acre feet per year

Agriculture 4,200,000

Manufacturing and Industry 952,000 Public Community Systems 717,000 Residential 509,000

Public Non-Community Systems 220,000 Domestic Wells 15,000 Commercial 97,000 Institutional 85,000 Industrial 26,000

Outdoor (non-potable) 143,000 Outdoor (potable) 188,000 Indoor 178,000

Source: Governorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Office of Management and Budget

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Economy

39

Utah ranks 7th in solar energy generation States’ contribution to nation’s total solar thermal and photovoltaic net electric power generation, 2017

WA 0.0% OR 0.4%

MT 0.0% ID 1.0% WY 0.0%

CA 44.2%

NV 7.2%

UT 3.8%

AZ 9.1%

MN 1.3%

SD 0.0%

WI 0.1%

NE 0.0% CO 1.8%

NM 2.1%

KS 0.0% OK 0.0%

TX 3.9%

AK 0.0%

ME 0.0%

VT 0.2%

ND 0.0%

IA 0.0%

MO 0.1% AR 0.1%

LA 0.0%

NH 0.0% MA 1.8%

NY 0.4%

MI 0.1%

RI 0.0% CT 0.1%

PA 0.2%

OH IN 0.2% IL WV 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% VA KY 0.6% 0.0% NC TN 10.5% 0.3% SC 0.2% AL GA MS 0.4% 4.1% 0.1%

NJ 2.2%

DE 0.1% MD DC 0.5% 0.0%

FL 1.4%

HI 0.4%

none < 1% 1.0% - 2.9% 3.0% - 4.9% 5.0% - 9.9% 10% +

Note: 2017 data represents activity through September, 2017.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration state electricity data

40

Economy

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Utah closes in on US renewable average Portion of Utah net electric power generation that is from renewable sources, excluding conventional hydroelectric

10.0% 9.0% 8.0%

Other Solar Thermal and Photovoltaic Wind Geothermal

7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0%

United States, renewable sources

2.0% 1.0% 0.0%

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration state electricity data

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Economy

41

The economic bootprint of Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s defense industry Total economic impacts of the defense industry in Utah, 2015

$9.2B GDP 6.2% of UT

$6.4B Earnings 7.1% of UT

109,000 Jobs 5.8% of UT

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

42

Economy

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Utah on the map for venture capital Venture capital deals per $1 million of state GDP Year-to-date activity through Q3 2017

WA $2,603 OR $500

CA $9,700

NV $508

MT $973

ID $1,784

UT $3,983

AZ $535

WY $16

VT $225

ND $69

MN $668

SD $17 NE $443

CO $3,214

NM $603

KS $33 OK $3

TX $826

AK $0

IA $145

WI $261

MI $287

ME $3,774 NH $670 MA $9,082 RI $3,199

NY $5,501 PA $746

OH IN $849 IL WV $1,723 $190 $17 VA MO KY $739 $477 $371 NC TN $1,450 $137 AR SC $111 $1,326 AL MS GA $198 $0 $2,046 LA $274 FL $1,665

CT $680

NJ $729 DE $730

MD $1,275 DC $2,643

< $500 $500 - $2,499 $2,500 - $4,999 $5,000 +

HI $0

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of PwC Moneytree Report and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) data

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Economy

43

Salt Lake makes Moodys’ Amazon HQ2 location top 10 Moody’s scoring of ideal metro location for next Amazon headquarters

Metro

Average Score

Austin-Round Rock, TX

3.1

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA

3.1

Philadelphia, PA

3.1

Rochester, NY

3.0

Pittsburgh, PA

3.0

New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ

3.0

Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL

2.9

Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA

2.9

Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA

2.9

Boston, MA

2.9

Salt Lake City, UT

2.9

Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA

2.9

Note: Score is based on assessments of business environment, human capital, cost, quality of life, transportation, and geography.

A perfect score would be 5.

Source: Moody’s Analytics

44

Economy

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Utah has the lowest workers’ compensation premium rates in the west Workers’ compensation premium rates, 2016 Percent of payroll

California

3.24%

Washington

1.97%

New Mexico

1.92%

Wyoming

1.87%

Idaho

1.79%

Colorado

1.56%

Arizona Nevada

1.50% 1.31%

Oregon

1.28%

Utah

1.27%

Source: Oregon Workers’ Compensation Premium Rate Ranking Calendar Year 2016, December 2016

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Economy

45

Utah natural gas prices among the lowest in the nation Natural Gas Prices, September 2017 $ per thousand cubic feet

WA $13.81 MT $10.53 OR $14.91

ID $9.42 WY $15.04

NV $12.81 CA $12.29

UT $10.38

AZ $22.16

ND $15.63

MN $12.06

NE $17.29 CO $12.15

NM $14.53

KS $21.4 OK $26.66

ME $23.14 NH $24.8

WI $13.59

SD $14.72

TX $22.1

AK $12.14

VT $20.96

IA $17.45

MI $12.11

NY $17.98 PA $17.52

OH IN IL $23.5 $16.65 $17.62 WV $14.13 VA MO KY $21.38 $25.33 $22.77 NC TN $23.08 $17.42 AR SC $20.37 $25.13 AL GA MS $18.15 $22.98 $29.12 LA $16.6

MA $15.42 RI $19.93 CT $21.76 NJ $11.59 DE $24.57 MD $20.03 DC $20.23

< $12.00 $12.01 - $16.00 $16.01 - $20.00

FL $26.45

$20.01 - $24.00 > 24.00

HI $39.98

Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration natural gas data

46

Economy

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Got art?

Arts organizations and venues per 100,000 population (none on record) CACHE

1.0 - 4.9

RICH

BOX ELDER

5.0 - 9.9 10.0 - 19.9

WEBER DAVIS

20.0 +

MORGAN SUMMIT

DAGGETT

SALT LAKE TOOELE

WASATCH DUCHESNE UINTAH

UTAH

JUAB

CARBON SANPETE

MILLARD

EMERY

GRAND

SEVIER

BEAVER

PIUTE

IRON

WAYNE

GARFIELD SAN JUAN

WASHINGTON

KANE

Source: Kem C. Policy Institute, Utah Division of Arts & Museums, Utah Cultural Alliance

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Economy

47

Utah ships over $100 billion in freight annually Freight shipments originating from Utah (Value of freight)

Destination share by shipment value (includes all modes of transportation)

Multiple 22%

In-State

37%

California

11%

Texas

5%

Idaho

4%

Nevada

4%

Montana

2%

All other states Total value ($116 billion)

Air 4% Pipeline 4% Rail 5% Truck 66%

38% 100%

Note: Pipeline shipments exclude crude petroleum. Multiple modes of transportation includes parcel, USPS, courier, truck-rail, truck-water, rail-water, and other. Air includes truck-air. For international exports from Utah, destinations are recorded as the state from which freight left the U.S. The total value of freight shipped from Utah is inflation-adjusted to 2017 dollars.

Source: U.S. Department of Transportation and U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 Commodity Flow Survey

48

Economy

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Globalization and Utah

â&#x20AC;&#x153;While some may portray free trade and open borders as threatening, the data suggest such a negative view is not warranted for Utah. Overall, the state economy has seen positive effects from globalization.â&#x20AC;?

James Wood

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Economy

49

Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s global reach Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s top export industries and trading partners Value of exports, $ millions

Largest Export Industries

2016

2015 $1,718 $2,121

Computers & Electronics Chemicals Food Transportation Equipment Miscellaneous Manufactures Machinery Electrical Equipment Fabricated Metals Plastics & Rubber

Largest Export Countries

$4,854 $5,563

Primary Metals $1,063 $1,095 $922 $933 $866 $812 $702 $635 $498 $522 $372 $332 $174 $199 $162 $178

United Kingdom Hong Kong Canada Mexico China Taiwan Japan Netherlands Germany South Korea

$1,507 $1,947 $1,323 $1,492

$3,074 $3,037

$741 $854 $648 $841 $610 $710 $504 $548 $448 $365 $343 $266 $318 $377

Source: USA Trade Online

50

Economy

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Asian visitors have replaced Europeans as the biggest spenders in Utah International visitor spending shares

Europe

Asia

North America (Non-U.S.)

South America

Australia

Africa

100% 90% 80% 70% 60%

21.6%

20.2%

24.0% 26.2%

50%

33.2%

33.7%

36.4%

39.4%

42.6%

46.2%

2015

2017(f)

2019(f)

2021(f)

2023(f)

2025(f)

40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2007

2009

2011

2013

(f ) = forecast Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Tourism Economics data

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Economy

51

Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s tax burden better than US average, higher than 4 of 5 surrounding states State and local tax collections as a percent of total personal income United States average = 10.6%

WA 9.9% OR 10.7%

MT 9.5% ID 9.4% WY 9.2%

CA 10.7%

NV 10.7%

UT 9.8%

AZ 9.1%

ND 10.1%

MN 11.9%

NM 10.0%

KS 9.2% OK 8.0%

TX 8.4%

AK 8.6% HI 13.1%

WI 10.5%

SD 8.1% NE 10.0%

CO 8.9%

VT 12.1%

MI 9.4%

IA 10.0% IN IL 11.4% 9.4%

OH 10.1%

NH 8.2% MA 10.5%

NY 15.3%

PA 10.1%

WV MO 10.5% VA KY 8.4% 8.4% 10.0% NC TN 9.4% 7.7% AR SC 10.2% 9.2% AL GA MS 8.7% 10.3% 8.1% LA 9.2%

ME 11.6%

FL 7.9%

RI 11.5% CT 11.3%

NJ 11.3% DE 10.3% MD 10.8%

< 80% of US average 81% - 90% of US 91% - 99% of US US +/- 1% 101% - 110% of US 111% to 120% of US > 120% of US

Notes: Collections for all state and local taxes, including payroll taxes, except for severance taxes. Data are for the most recent year available, 2014.

Sources: Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Census Bureau Survey of State and Local Finances data and Bureau of Economic Analysis data

52

Economy

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Utah’s economy among the most diverse in the nation Hachman Index of GDP diversity, 2016

WA 89.7 OR 87.5

MT 83.7

ND 57.4

ID 81.9 WY 27.4

CA 93.9

NV 63.0

UT 96.3

AZ 95.5

MN 94.9

SD 63.9

WI 92.7

NE 71.9 CO 93.7

NM 65.7

KS 93.2 OK 61.5

TX 77.8

AK 36.3 HI 72.5

ME 91.0

VT 91.6

MO 97.0 AR 88.9

LA 84.1

NY 80.6

MI 92.5

IA 75.8 IN IL 96.2 76.1

NH 95.0 MA 90.6

OH 94.2

PA 95.7

WV 55.1 VA KY 89.6 90.2 NC TN 92.7 92.3 SC 91.1 AL GA MS 96.0 86.9 90.9

CT 91.8

RI 88.4

NJ 93.4

DE 54.8

MD 87.3 DC 48.1

< 75.0 75.0 - 84.9 85.0 - 89.9

FL 92.1

90.0 - 94.9 95.0 +

Note: An index value of 100 would mean that a state’s distribution of GDP among 20 sectors perfectly mirrors the nation.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) data

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Economy

53

Creating our destiny

“We’re living in times of tremendous growth and change.

The dynamic for change will only become more intensified as time goes on. What we need to recognize is that our actions today will shape the future that we have tomorrow.

You know, the future is not given. We are active participants in, not just witnesses to, the great changes that are going on, and the actions we take today very purposefully will impact our future.”

Pamela Perlich

Source: “Utah’s Long-Term Demographic and Economic Projections” Video, produced by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, Nov. 16, 2017

54

Demographics

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Washington Countyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s population expected to triple by 2065 Projected 50-year population growth, 2015-2065 State of Utah growth = 94.4% < 50.0% CACHE 92.6%

BOX ELDER 62.8%

WEBER 60.4% DAVIS MORGAN 62.1% 122.1%

TOOELE 112.2%

50.0% - 74.9%

RICH 43.7%

SALT LAKE 54.7%

75.0% - 99.9% 100.0% - 149.9% 150.0% + DAGGETT 54.9%

SUMMIT 80.1%

WASATCH 186.6%

DUCHESNE 59.2%

UTAH 176.6% JUAB 171.6%

UINTAH 54.5%

CARBON 56.6% SANPETE 70.5%

MILLARD 42.1%

EMERY 44.1%

GRAND 51.6%

SEVIER 54.4% BEAVER 43.8%

PIUTE 31.7%

IRON 81.4%

WASHINGTON 229.2%

WAYNE 51.6%

GARFIELD 45.4%

SAN JUAN 46.6%

KANE 57.4%

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 2017 Long-Term Demographic and Economic Projections

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Demographics

55

A grayer and grayer Utah Current and projected dependency ratios for Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s counties

2016

2065 Statewide Average: 69.2

CACHE 67.6

BOX ELDER 81.6

RICH 90.6

WEBER 67.7 DAVIS MORGAN 76.7 75.0

TOOELE 72.6

SALT LAKE 62.2

UTAH 71.7

Statewide Average: 79.8 BOX ELDER 93.6

70.0 - 79.9 80.0 - 89.9

DAGGETT 83.1

SUMMIT 54.3

WASATCH 72.9

DUCHESNE 86.0

TOOELE 87.1

UTAH 76.3

SANPETE 67.5

EMERY 84.2

GRAND 64.3

BEAVER 85.6

PIUTE 100.9

IRON 67.7

WASHINGTON 89.3

KANE 83.8

DAGGETT 93.1

WASATCH 83.1

DUCHESNE 99.0

UINTAH 92.5

SANPETE 65.2

EMERY 86.5

GRAND 86.3

SEVIER 97.4 BEAVER 92.6

WAYNE 89.0

GARFIELD 81.5

90.0 + SUMMIT 94.6

CARBON 89.6

MILLARD 91.2

SEVIER 84.9

70.0 - 79.9 80.0 - 89.9

JUAB 85.3

CARBON 74.3

MILLARD 84.3

SALT LAKE 76.0

UINTAH 78.0

< 70.0

RICH 90.5

WEBER 81.8 DAVIS MORGAN 83.7 82.9

90.0 +

JUAB 86.9

CACHE 69.1

< 70.0

PIUTE 94.5

IRON 71.3

GARFIELD 94.7

SAN JUAN 75.0 WASHINGTON 95.5

WAYNE 91.6

SAN JUAN 84.6

KANE 99.6

Note: The dependency ratio shows the number of nonworking-age persons (aged less than 18 and over 64) per 100 working-age adults (aged 18-64).

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 2015-2065 State and County Projections

56

Demographics

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Fertility since the Great Recessionâ&#x20AC;&#x201D; a pregnant pause or birth of a new normal?

Total fertility rates for Utah and the United States

4.00

Utah United States

3.50

3.00

2.50

2.00 Great Recession: Q1 2008 - Q2 2009

1.50

1.00 1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Demographics

57

Gordon who?

Gordon Hayward and Donovan Mitchell Rookie season statistics

83%

81%

2.7

35%

2.1

15.5

15.6

29% 1.7 1.1

Free Throw %

Three Point %

Average Steals per game

Gordon Hayward

Average Assists per game

Average Points per game

Donovan Mitchell

Note: Donovan Mitchell stats are through Dec. 12, 2017.

Source: RealGM.com

58

Demographics

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Autism prevalence rises throughout childhood and into adolescence Changes in ASD prevalence in the 1994 birth cohort Four-county surveillance area in Utah

35 Female Male 30

25

20

15

10

5

0

2.2

9.8

2002 Age 8

3.1 14.2

4.1 18.3

5.2 23.8

7.2 29.7

2004 Age 10

2006 Age 12

2008 Age 14

2010 Age 16

Notes: Bars represent 95% confidence intervals; the four-county surveillance area included Davis, Salt Lake, Utah, and Tooele counties.

Source: Utah Registry of Autism and Developmental Disabilities

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Demographics

59

SLCâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Ballpark neighborhood lacks opportunity Opportunity Index Salt Lake City, 2015

Opportunity Index Index Number

4 - 6, Moderate

1 - 2, Very Low

6 - 8, High

2 - 4, Low

8 - 10, Very High

Salt Lake City

0 0.5 1

2

3

Miles 4

Note: The opportunity index is calculated using nine variables: poverty rate, labor force participation rate, unemployment rate, public assistance rate, educational attainment, percent eligible for free and reduced lunch, percent homeowners, percent of owner occupied households with severe housing cost burden, and percent of renter households with severe housing cost burden.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

60

Demographics

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Is Utah a net education exporter?

Portion of Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s prime working age out- and in-migrants with a bachelorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s degree or higher, 2011-2015

47.8%

Out-migrants

43.3%

In-migrants

Notes: The population considered to be of prime working age is between the ages of 25 and 54. Error bars represent the 90% confidence interval of the mean estimates, which are statistically different for each migrant group.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau 2015 5-Year American Community Survey data

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Demographics

61

Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s achievement gap persists, but improving Utah high school graduation rates by race and ethnicity

90%

85%

83%

84%

85%

86%

81%

80%

75%

70%

65%

60%

55%

50%

All Students Asian White Pacific Islander Hispanic/Latino American Indian African American/Black

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Note: Y-axis does not start at zero.

Source: Utah State Board of Education 2017 Graduation Rates Report

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Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s ACT scores are lower than the national average, reflects 100% of students taking the test Average ACT scores, 2017 100% of Utah students take test, national average is 60%

Utah United States 21.4 21.0 20.7

21.0

20.8 20.6

20.3

20.3 19.9

19.5

English

Mathematics

Reading

Science

Composite

Source: ACT

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

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63

Growth and decline in Utah school districts Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s largest school districts and those with the most growth and decline

Most Growth

Alpine Charters Davis Granite Jordan Canyons Nebo Weber Washington Salt Lake Cache Tooele Charters S. Summit Wasatch N. Sanpete Morgan Washington Cache Alpine Jordan

Most Decline

Largest Districts

Change between 2016â&#x20AC;&#x201C;17 and 2017-18 school years

Park City Granite San Juan Tintic Piute Grand Logan Ogden Provo Daggett

22,845 17,895

33,907 32,809 31,957 30,015

53,519

78,853 75,566 71,908 66,024

12.7% 5.7% 4.8% 3.3% 3.3% 2.5% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% -1.5% -1.7% -1.7% -2.0% -2.1% -2.2% -2.9% -3.7% -10.4% -10.9%

Source: Utah State Board of Education, Data and Statistics

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Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

About a quarter of public higher ed students come from out of state Fall 2016 Enrollment (End-of-Term Headcount)

4,729 1,771

Share of In-state Students Less than 1% 1% to 2% 2% to 10% 10% to 37%

100

10,734 583 18,568

28

1,512

Not Available 9% Outside U.S. 4% Other U.S. 13%

48,938 2,201

1,382

475 547

25,345 542

869 1,441

644

433

246

1,003 304

66

2,722

In-State 74% (see Utah map for counties)

124

223 501

6,604

272

Note: While 74 percent of public higher eduation students are from Utah, 87 percent have resident status.

Students at public technical colleges and at private colleges and universities in Utah are not included.

Source: Utah System of Higher Education, 2017 Data Book

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

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65

Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s relatively young and healthy population spends less on health care than other states...

Per capita health care expenditures, 2014 United States = $8,045

WA $7,913 MT $8,221 OR $8,044

ID $6,927 WY $8,320

NV $6,714 CA $7,549

UT $5,982

AZ $6,452

ND $9,851

MN $8,871

SD $8,933 NE $8,412

CO $6,804

NM $7,214

KS $7,651 OK $7,627

TX $6,998

AK $11,064

VT $10,190

ME $9,531 NH $9,589

WI $8,702

IA $8,200

MI $8,055

NY $9,778

MA $10,559 RI $9,551

PA $9,258

OH IN $8,712 IL $8,262 $8,300 WV $9,462 VA MO KY $7,556 $8,107 $8,004 NC TN $7,264 $7,372 AR SC $7,408 $7,311 AL GA MS $7,646 $7,281 $6,587 LA $7,815

CT $9,859 NJ $8,859 DE $10,254 MD $8,602 DC $11,944

< $7,000 $7,000 - $7,999 $8,000 - $8,999

FL $8,076

$9,000 - $9,999 $10,000 +

HI $7,299

Source: The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation

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Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

...But more on health care than other countries, with implications for global competitiveness Health care expenditures as a share of GDP, 2016 Select OECD Countries and Utah United States

17.2%

Utah

12.4%

Germany

11.2%

Sweden

11.0%

France

11.0%

Japan

10.9%

Canada

10.6%

Norway

10.5%

Belgium

10.4%

Denmark

10.4%

Austria

10.4%

United Kingdom

9.7%

Australia

9.6%

Finland

9.3%

New Zealand

9.2%

Spain

9.0%

Italy

8.9%

Israel Mexico

7.4% 5.8%

Note: Utah data is for 2014.

Sources: Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics Group

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

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67

13 states have a higher uninsured rate than Utah; 26 have a lower rate Percent of population without health insurance, 2016 United States = 8.6%

WA 6.0% MT 8.1% OR 6.2%

ID 10.1% WY 11.5%

NV 11.4% CA 7.3%

UT 8.8%

AZ 10.0%

VT 3.7%

ND 7.0%

MN 4.1%

SD 8.7%

WI 5.3%

NE 8.6% CO 7.5%

NM 9.2%

KS 8.7% OK 13.8%

IA 4.3% IL 6.5% MO 8.9%

AR 7.9%

NY 6.1%

MI 5.4%

OH 5.6%

IN 8.1%

PA 5.6% WV 5.3%

KY 5.1%

VA 8.7% NC 10.4%

TN 9.0% AL MS 11.8% 9.1%

TX 16.6%

AK 14.0%

ME 8.0%

CT 4.9% NJ 8.0% DE 5.7% MD 6.1%

NH 5.9% MA 2.5% RI 4.3%

DC 3.9%

SC 10.0% GA 12.9%

LA 10.3% FL 12.5%

HI 3.5%

Rate lower than Utah* Rate not statistically different from Utah Rate higher than Utah*

*Rate is statistically different from Utah with 90 percent confidence.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2016 1-year estimates

68

Education

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Healthy population or physician shortage?

Active physicians per 100,000 population, 2016

Utah United States median 257.6

209.4 (ranks 44th)

90.8 64.7 (ranks 49th)

Active Physicians

Active Primary Care Physicians

Source: American Medical Association 2017 State Physician Workforce Data Report

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

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69

“Opidemic” in Utah Opioid overdose deaths per 100,000 population United States = 10.4

WA 9.3 MT 5.0 OR 7.9

ND 4.8

ID 6.0

CA 4.9

UT 15.9

AZ 10.2

NH 31.3

WI 11.2

OK 11.2

NM 17.9

TX 4.7

AK 11.0

HI 4.1

IL 10.7

KS 5.4

NY 10.8

MI 13.6

IA 5.8

NE 3.1 CO 8.7

ME 19.3

MN 6.2

SD 3.5

WY 7.9 NV 13.8

VT 13.4

IN 8.5

MO 11.7

RI 23.5

OH 24.7 KY 21

MS 5.3

AL 6.1

PA 11.2

CT 19.2 NJ 9.8 DE 14.8

WV 36

VA 9.9 NC 11.9

TN 16.0

AR 7.2

MA 23.3

MD 17.7 DC 14.5

SC 11.4 GA 8.4

< 6.0

LA 6.3

6.0 - 11.9 FL 9.4

12.0 - 19.9 20.0 +

Note: Rates are age-adjusted.

Source: The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation State Health Facts

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Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Four Utah counties with more opioid prescriptions than people Retail opioid prescriptions dispensed per 100 persons, 2016 US rate 66.5; Utah rate 70.4 < 50 CACHE

50 - 74.9

RICH

BOX ELDER

75 -99.9 100 +

WEBER DAVIS

(no data)

MORGAN SUMMIT

DAGGETT

SALT LAKE TOOELE

WASATCH

DUCHESNE UINTAH

UTAH

JUAB

CARBON SANPETE

MILLARD

EMERY

GRAND

SEVIER

BEAVER

PIUTE

IRON

WAYNE

GARFIELD SAN JUAN

WASHINGTON

KANE

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Injury Prevention and Control U.S. Prescribing Rate Maps

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Gun-related deaths per capita in Utah: low for homicides, high for suicides Firearm-related death rates by type, 2015 Deaths per 100,000 resident population, all ages, age-adjusted

Utah United States

12.8

11.1

11.0

6.5

4.1

1.3

Suicide

Homicide

Total

Note: Total includes less than 0.5 firearm deaths per 100,000 total population that were unintentional, related to legal intervention, or of undetermined intent.

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Center for Health Statistics Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System

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Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Utah air quality is getting better, still not acceptable Number of days air quality index exceeded 100 across the Wasatch Front Unhealthy for sensitive groups or worse

350

300

Salt Lake City Ogden-Clearfield Provo-Orem Regional Average National Average

250

200

150

100

50

0

Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Outdoor Air Quality data

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No State gets an A State Fiscal Practices Report Card Cumulative GPA in budget forecasting, budget maneuvers, legacy costs, reserve funds, and transparency for fiscal years 2015-2017

d Report Car State

ota So uth Dak Idaho Utah

ia Californ Alaska

Minnesota Nebraska Oregon

land Rho de Is e Tennesse

GPA

B

3.20

B

3.20

B

3.18

3.13

3.07

3.07

3.07

Arizona

Delaware Flori da

Ind iana Iowa

Michigan

a Ok laho m n Washingto

B

3.27

Hawaii

State

Grade

3.07

3.07

3.01

3.00

3.00

3.00 2.93

2.87

2.87

B

B

B

B

B

B

B

B

B

B

B-

B-

B-

GPA

2.87

2.83

Grade B-

B-

State Misso uri Virg ina

Kentucky

GPA

2.29

2.25

2.20

Grade C+ C

C

C B2.20 2.80 Ohio Georg ia C B2.14 80 o lina 2.

Wyo ming So uth Car C B2.12 2.78 cetts Massachu New York C B2.11 2.73 Montana Maine C B2.07 2.71 n Co lorado Wisconsi C + C 2.05 2.67 uisiana Lo Mississippi C C+ 0 2.01 nua o lina 2.6 ennsylva P N orth Car CC+ 1.93 2.47 o cut New Mexic Connecti C+ C 1.80 2.47 rkansas A Texas CC+ 1.70 2.47 ey New Jers Ver mont D+ + C 1.67 2.47 ina labama A Wes t Virg D+ C+ 1.35 2.45 Illino is Nevada D + C 1.28 2.41 ota ansas K N orth Dak C+ 33 pshire 2.

New Ham C+ 2.31 Mar yland

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Volcker Alliance 2017 Truth and Integrity in State Budgeting Report

74

Fiscal Considerations

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

Last major tax change in Utah broadened the income tax base; did not address declining sales tax base Changes in Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s sales and income tax bases as a percent of the economy Cumulative changes since 1995

40% Income Tax Base 30%

Sales Tax Base

20%

Major tax change fully implemented, 2008

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

Note: Data shows the cumulative change in each base type as a percent of Utah Gross Domestic Product (GDP) since 1995.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Utah Office of Legislative Research and General Counsel data

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75

Sales tax is not keeping pace Growth in Utahâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economy and major revenue collections Since the end of the recession, 2009 - 2017

Total Per capita

52.9%

44.4%

33.9% 34.4%

27.0% 20.0% 17.7%

5.5% State Personal Income

State Income Tax

State Sales Tax

State Unrestricted Sales Tax

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Utah State Tax Commission data

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Fiscal Considerations

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

A fundamentally different US (and Utah) economy US Personal Consumption Distribution Expenditures by product type

1955 57%

43%

Services

1985 42%

Goods

Goods

5%

Health care goods and services

12%

Health care goods and services

58%

Services

2016 32%

Goods

68%

Services

21%

Health care goods and services

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) data

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Fiscal Considerations

77

Utah one of 18 states that have not expanded Medicaid Status of state Medicaid expansion decisions November 2017

Adopted (32 states and DC) Not adopted (18 states)

WA MT* OR

ME*

ND MN

ID

VTNH*

SD

WI

WY IA*

NE

NV

UT

CA

AZ*

PA IL

CO

KS

OK

NM

TX

IN

MO

OH

MA CT RI

NJ MD

WV

DE

VA

KY

NC

TN AR*

SC MS

AK

NY

MI*

AL

GA

LA FL

HI

*AR, AZ, IA, IN, MI, MT, and NH have approved Section 1115 waivers. ME adopted the Medicaid expansion through a ballot initiative in November 2017; the ballot measure requires submission of a state plan amendment within 90 days and implementation of expansion within 180 days of the measureâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s effective date. WI covers adults up to 100% Federal Poverty Level in Medicaid, but did not adopt the Affordable Care Act expansion.

Source: The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation Status of State Action on the Medicaid Expansion Decision as of November 8, 2017

78

Fiscal Considerations

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

The magic is in the middle Model for authentic engagement in public deliberation

Fake Outrage

Authentic Engagement

Sure-mindedness

False Harmony

Open-mindedness

Source: MartĂ­n Carcasson, Ph.D., Center for Public Deliberation at Colorado State University

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Shedding Light

79

Probability of making a good decision

With good data and information come better decisions

Good data and information

80

Shedding Light

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2018

K E M C . G A R D N E R P O L I C Y I N S T I T U T E S TA F F A N D A D V I S O R S Leadership Team Natalie Gochnour, Director Jennifer Robinson, Associate Director Dianne Meppen, Director of Survey Research Pamela S. Perlich, Director of Demographic Research Juliette Tennert, Director of Economic and Public Policy Research James A. Wood, Ivory-Boyer Senior Fellow Faculty Advisors Adam Meirowitz, Faculty Advisor Matt Burbank, Faculty Advisor Senior Advisors Jonathan Ball, Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst Gary Cornia, Marriott School of Business Dan Griffiths, Tanner LLC Roger Hendrix, Hendrix Consulting Joel Kotkin, Chapman University Darin Mellott, CBRE Derek Miller, World Trade Center Utah Chris Redgrave, Zions Bank Bud Scurggs, Cynosure Group Wesley Smith, 24NINE

Staff Samantha Ball, Research Associate Mallory Bateman, Research Analyst DJ Benway, Research Analyst Cathy Chambless, Senior Research Associate Marin Christensen, Research Associate Mike Christensen, Scholar-in-Residence John C. Downen, Senior Research Analyst Emily Harris, Demographic Analyst Michael T. Hogue, Senior Research Statistician Mike Hollingshaus, Demographer Thomas Holst, Senior Energy Analyst Meredith King, Research Associate Colleen Larson, Administrative Manager Shelley Kruger, Accounting and Finance Manager Jennifer Leaver, Research Analyst Sara McCormick, Senior Research Associate Angela Oh, Senior Economist Levi Pace, Research Analyst Joshua Spolsdoff, Research Associate Nicholas Thiriot, Communications Director Natalie Young, Research Analyst

Partners in the Community

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Advisory Board

The following individuals and entities help support the research mission of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.

Conveners

Legacy Partners

Board

The Gardner Company Intermountain Healthcare Larry H. & Gail Miller Family Foundation Mountain America Credit Union Salt Lake City Corp.

Salt Lake County University Health Care Utah Governor’s Office of Economic Development Zions Bank

Scott Anderson, Co-Chair Gail Miller, Co-Chair Doug Anderson Deborah Bayle Lane Beattie Cynthia A. Berg Roger Boyer Wilford Clyde Sophia M. DiCaro Cameron Diehl Lisa Eccles Spencer P. Eccles

Executive Partners The Boyer Company Ivory Homes Mark and Karen Bouchard Salt Lake Chamber Sorenson Impact Center WCF Insurance

Sustaining Partners Clyde Companies Dominion Energy Staker Parson Companies

Michael O. Leavitt Mitt Romney

Matt Eyring Kem C. Gardner Christian Gardner Matthew S. Holland Clark Ivory Ron Jibson Mike S. Leavitt Vivian S. Lee Kimberly Gardner Martin Ann Millner Cristina Ortega Jason Perry Taylor Randall Jill Remington Love Brad Rencher Josh Romney Charles W. Sorenson

James Lee Sorenson Vicki Varela Ruth V. Watkins Ted Wilson Natalie Gochnour, Director

Ex Officio Senator Orrin Hatch Governor Gary Herbert Speaker Greg Hughes Senate President Wayne Niederhauser Representative Brian King Senator Gene Davis Mayor Ben McAdams Mayor Jackie Biskupski

Salt Lake Chamber Executive Board Chris Gamvroulas Natalie Gochnour Val Hale Kay Hall Patricia Jones Fred Lampropoulos Brent Low Dean Luikart Jason Mathis Molly Mazzolini Keith McMullin

Lane Beattie Bruce Bingham Terry Buckner Gérald Caussé Vance Checketts Lori Chillingworth Wilford Clyde Cindy Crane John Dahlstrom Spencer Eccles Theresa Foxley

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

I

Thomas S. Monson Center 411 E. South Temple Street Salt Lake City, UT 84111 801-585-5618 gardner.utah.edu

I

I

DAV I D E CC L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S UNIVERSITY OF UTAH

Derek Miller Jim Olson Scott Parson Ray Pickup Gary Porter Steven Starks Nigel Steward Craig Wagstaff Heidi Walker Linda Wardell Bert Zimmerli