Utah Informed

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

I U N I V E R S I T Y O F U TA H

In Par tnership with the Salt Lake Chamber

KEM C. GARDNER POLIC Y INSTITUTE

We are an honest broker of

INFORMED RESEARCH that guides

INFORMED DISCUSSIONS and leads to

INFORMED D E C I S I O N S™

January 2024

Dear friends, We call the contents of this report “visual intellection.” While not a commonly used word, intellection describes the process of using your mind to carefully consider a matter of importance. Said another way, it’s thinking well.

We can all agree that the coming year needs leaders who think well.

In 2024 we face tumultuous geopolitical conflicts, a presidential election year characterized by extreme division, a resilient but uncertain national economy, artificial intelligence risks, and many other serious challenges. When Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell artfully said, “We are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies," he captured not just an economic stance, but a broader global, national, and state outlook. Our “cloudy” future, as the saying goes, will not be a gift, but rather an achievement.

Here in Utah, the skies are clearer. We have nation-leading economic outcomes, upward mobility, and social capital that help us as we grow and change. We are now a mid-sized state that has become a destination of choice for new residents. We enthusiastically look to the future and embrace a 2034 Olympic dream, even as we face serious challenges in the present with Great Salt Lake, housing affordability, chronic homelessness, mental health, and growth…just to name a few.

Thinking well is easier said than done. In a world filled with performative politics, news as entertainment, and social media algorithms, many struggle to find accurate, authoritative, and independently produced data and information. You’ve come to the right place.

The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute serves as an honest broker of informed research, that guides informed discussions, and leads to INFORMED DECISIONS™. We hope this ninth edition of Utah Informed will help you think well in 2024.

Thanks for your interest,

Natalie Gochnour

Rachel Hayes

Derek Miller

Director, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Dean, David Eccles School of Business

President & CEO, Salt Lake Chamber

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

1

Contents Current Affairs Words and phrases to know in 2024. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Winter Olympic and Paralympic competition venues, 2002-2034. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Utah components of population change, 2000-2020 and 2021-2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 People experiencing chronic homelessness in Utah, 2019-2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Federal deficit or surplus and net interest outlays as a share of GDP, 1940-2053. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Real private AI investment, historical and projected, 2013-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Rice Eccles Stadium capacity compared to select Utah county populations, 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . 12 NFL player origins per capita, 2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Global refugees, 1965-June 2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Utah Economy U.S. city average year-over inflation rates, 2016-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 U.S. consumer sentiment, real median weekly wage, and real consumer spending year-over percent change since 2019 Q4–2023 Q3. . . . . . . . . 17 Middle-class population as a share of total population, 1980-2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Net percentage of domestic banks tightening standards for commercial and industrial loans to small and large/middle-market firms, 1991-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

2

Percent change in U.S. labor force participation rate by age since January 2019, 2019-2023 . . . . . . 20 U.S. wage growth by age since 2019, 2019-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Job growth for all 50 states, 2000-2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Unemployed persons per job opening ratio rate by state, 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

Public Finance Total federal debt as a share of U.S. GDP, 1966-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 State-imposed sales tax rates on groceries by state, 2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Median property taxes paid by county, 2017-2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Utah's state budget allocation process, 2023. . . . . . . 27

Real Estate and Construction Change in the number of new listings for sale by state between October 2019 and 2022 . . . . . . . 28 Price of a starter home in Utah, 2000-2023. . . . . . . . . 29 Share of existing mortgages with an interest rate at 4% or lower by state, 2023 Q2. . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Average home equity as a share of value for homes with a mortgage by state, 2023 Q2. . . . . . . 31 Median sales price of existing single-family homes by state, 1970-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Share of permitted housing units by type in Utah, 2010-2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

Median single-family mortgage payment compared to median single-family rent in Utah, 2010-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Median monthly sales price and new mortgage payment in Utah, 2020-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Architecture Billings Index, residential and commercial/industrial, U.S., 1999-2023 . . . . . . . . . . 36

Travel and Tourism Utah hotel room occupancy rate in annular eclipse pathway counties, second weekend in October, 2018-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Year-over change in Utah leisure and hospitality employment compared to 2019 baseline, 2020-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 County transient room tax revenue per household in Utah, 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Year-over change in hotel and short-term rental occupancy rates in Utah, 2022 Q4-2023 Q3. . . . . . 40 Utah snowfall and skier days, 2004 -2005 ski season through 2022-2023 ski season. . . . . . . . . . . 41 SLC International Airport seats per departure, 2014-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Utah outdoor recreation-related taxable sales and year-over change, 2018-2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Change in national park visitation since 2019, April-October, 2022 and 2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Energy and Environment Utah's critical minerals by geographic location, 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Utah's energy production and consumption, 1960-2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 Utah energy consumption by source, 2011-2021. . . 47 Utah renewable energy consumption by source, 2011-2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 Uinta Basin waxy crude oil production, 2017-2023. . . 49 Residential electricity and natural gas prices in U.S. and Intermountain West, May 2023 . . . . . . . . . 50 Annual average Great Salt Lake elevation, 1903-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 Reservoir storage in the Great Salt Lake Basin, 1989-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52

Health Real average annual growth in Utah’s individual and family income compared to health insurance costs, 2011-2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 Share of drug overdose deaths in Utah by substance, 2016-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 50th anniversary of the Rehabilitation Act. . . . . . . . . 55 Select mental health indicators among children and parents, 2020-2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

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Contents Select mental health indicators among adults, 2020-2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Uninsured rates by household poverty level in Utah, 2012 and 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 Cumulative percent change in Utah monthly medicaid enrollment, May 2023-September 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Percent change in Utah's private sector health care employment compared to 10-year average before COVID-19 pandemic, 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60

Education Change in student proficiency rates from 2019 to 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 Change in Utah K-12 enrollment, 2004-05 to 2034-35. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 Share of Utah students who were chronically absent, 2011-12 to 2022-23. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Number of education preparation program completers, 2011-12 to 2020-23. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 Median balance for student loan borrowers by state, 2022 Q4. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

Demographics Utah in-migrant place of birth, 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 Utah net migration, 2010-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 Total fertility rate, 1960-2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 Reasons for migrating to Utah, 2020-2060 projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 Utah in-migrant domestic origins, 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . 70 Utah and United States projected annual percentage population growth rates, 2025-2060. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Percent of population age 65 or older by county, 2010 and 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 Median age by county, 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 Salt Lake City foreign-born population by region of origin, 2017-2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 Population change for Salt Lake City, Utah, and select cities, July 2021-July 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . 75 Utah households by type, 2000-2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 Racial and ethnic minority population shares, 1990 and 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77

Utah Informed The whole point. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78

Editors: Jennifer Robinson and Natalie Roney

4

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

Words and phrases to know in 2024

n

Deepfake – An image or recording convincingly altered and manipulated to misrepresent someone as doing or saying something not actually done or said. “An image circulated of the President at Coachella, but it ended up being a deepfake.”

n

Deinfluencing – The practice of discouraging people from buying particular products, or of encouraging people to reduce their consumption of material goods, especially via social media. “I was going to buy the new iPhone, but I was deinfluenced by a person I follow on Instagram.”

n

n

n

Generative AI – Algorithms (such as ChatGPT) that can be used to create new content, including audio, code, images, text, simulations, and videos. “The university is having to update its cheating policies to include students’ use of generative AI to write papers.”

Greenwash – The act or practice of making a product, policy, activity, etc. appear to be more environmentally friendly or less environmentally damaging than it really is. “A new report reveals that the company’s sustainability policies may just be greenwashing.”

Heat dome – A weather phenomenon in which an area experiences stifling heat when a system of high pressure pushes very warm air downward and keeps it trapped as if in a bubble. “In August, 126 million people were under heat alerts due to a severe heat dome in the southern states.”

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

n

Large Language Model (LLM) – A type of machine learning algorithm trained on extremely large datasets of existing language and designed to generate new, naturalistic responses to prompts. “Large Language Models such as ChatGPT have become a contentious topic of conversation among writers afraid of being pushed out of their jobs and replaced by AI.”

n

Nepo baby – Referring to nepotism, a nepo baby is a person, especially in the entertainment industry, whose career is believed to be advanced by having famous parents. “I bet he only got the role because he’s a nepo baby; his acting was only so-so.”

n

Parasocial – A unidirectional relationship that a person imagines having with another person whom they do not actually know, such as a celebrity or a fictional character.

“I feel like I know Taylor Swift personally, but she doesn’t know I exist; our relationship is completely parasocial.”

n

Rizz – Short for “charisma.” An ability to charm or woo a person. “She can win over anyone. She has a lot of rizz.”

n

Shift shock – A phenomenol feeling of discrepancy between the expectations of a new job and the reality in the company. A new job or employer is not what a new hire expected, with some being either disappointed or otherwise surprised. “One day into my new job and I am already experiencing shift shock. I always wanted to work at a bank, but it’s not what I expected.”

Current Affairs

5

Ready to welcome the world

The 2034 Winter Games in Salt Lake City-Utah will be the first WINTER Games that will not require building new venues.

Winter Olympic and Paralympic competition venues, 2002-2034 Salt Lake 2002

Torino 2006

Vancouver 2010

Sochi 2014

Pyeong Chang 2018

Beijing 2022

SLC-UT 2034

Existing Facilities

58%

59%

33%

8%

40%

54%

92%

Temporary Construction

0%

6%

0%

0%

7%

15%

8%

New Construction

42%

35%

67%

92%

53%

31%

0%

Venue Type

Source: Salt Lake City-Utah Committee for the Games

6

Current Affairs

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

“ fraught Economic forecasting

is a

business.

complex, quickly changing set of nonlinear relationships among seemingly

The economy is a

non-rational

households, businesses, and governments.

It is by geopolitical, technological, and environmental In forecasting, it is wise to remain

continually buffeted

shocks. humble.”

- Mark Zandi, Moody's Analytics

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Current Affairs

7

Put out the welcome mat Utah components of population change, 2000-2020 and 2021-2023

2000-2020

2021-2023

34% 66%

59% 41%

Net migration

Natural increase

Sources: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute and Utah Population Committee

8

Current Affairs

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

How can we help?

People experiencing chronic homelessness in Utah, 2019-2023

1,200

1,000

27% 1,004 Increase

800

792 688

600

400

642

512

200

0

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Note: The year 2021 is not comparable to other years due to data inconsisitencies caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

10% Source: Utah Point in Time Count

Historical

DAVID 5%E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S

Projected Current Affairs

9

200

Is it in our interest?

0

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Federal deficit or surplus and net interest outlays as a share of GDP, 1940-2053

10% Historical

Projected

5%

0%

Total deficit or surplus less net interest outlays

-5%

Net interest outlays

-10%

Total deficit or surplus

-15%

-20%

-25%

-30%

1940

1948

1956

1964

1972

1980

1988

1996

2004

2012

2020

2028

2036

2044

2052

Note: Federal deficits less net interest outlay as a share of GDP in 2023 and 2053 equals roughly 3.4%. High interest rates and sustained deficits combined cause net outlays for interest to almost triple in relation to U.S. GDP. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Office of Management and Budget data

10

Current Affairs

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

The AI revolution Real private AI investment, historical and projected, 2013-2025

$180 Historical

Projected

$160 $140

Billions of 2021 USD

$120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 U.S.

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

World

Sources: Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence and Goldman Sachs Research

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Current Affairs

11

1.29

2.59

1.01– 2.62 1.64

0.17 1.10

A Utah fan am I

Rice Eccles Stadium capacity compared to select Utah county populations, 2023

Seating capacity of Rice Eccles Stadium at the University of Utah:

51,444

Total population of Wayne, Garfield, Kane, San Juan, Grand, and Emery counties:

50,881

Source: Utah Population Committee

12

Current Affairs

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

Homegrown in Utah NFL player origins per capita, 2023

0.41 0.34

0.00

0.95 0.67

0.87 0.40

0.75

0.69 0.64

0.75 0.83

0.70

0.53

0.80

1.12

0.69

1.39

0.77 0.63 0.81

0.12

0.23

0.82

0.96

0.27

0.44

1.01 1.14

0.98 0.53

1.46 2.24

1.29

0.54

1.22

VT 0.00 NH 0.09 MA 0.38 RI 0.22 CT 0.78 NJ 1.07 DE 0.87 MD 1.39

2.30

0.00 – 0.50

2.62

0.51–1.00

2.59

1.01– 2.62 1.64

0.17 1.10

Note: Origin refers to where a player went to high school.

Source: Dr. Ted Goudge, Sport Geographer, Northwest Missouri State University

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Current Affairs

13

Put yourself in their shoes Global refugees, 1965-June 2023

35

30

25

Millions

20

15

10

5

2023

2021

2019

2017

2015

2013

2011

2009

2007

2005

2003

2001

1999

1997

1995

1993

1991

1989

1987

1985

1983

1981

1979

1977

1975

1973

1971

1969

1967

1965

0

Note: Refugees, as defined by the UNHCR, include "all persons outside their country of origin for reasons of feared persecution, conflict, generalized violence, or other circumstances that have seriously disturbed public order and who, as a result, require international protection."

Source: United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees

14

Current Affairs

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

SPEAK “ what’s written in your

HEART.” - U of U Impact Scholar Arthur Brooks advising Utah leaders

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Current Affairs

15

Coming down U.S. city average year-over inflation rates, 2016-2023

10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2%

Target inflation rate: 2%

1% 0%

2016

2017 All items

2018

2019

2020

All items less food and energy

2021 Child care

2022

2023

Housing

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

120

16

Utah Economy 100

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

Retail therapy U.S. consumer sentiment, real median weekly wage, and real consumer spending year-over percent change since 2019 Q4–2023 Q3

20%

10%

Real U.S. consumer spending Real U.S. median weekly wage

0%

-10%

-20%

U.S. consumer sentiment

-30%

-40%

-50%

2020

2021

2022

2023

35% Sources: University of Michigan, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

30%

Utah Economy

17

Hollowing out the middle Middle-class population as a share of total population, 1980-2020

51.4%

50.6% 48.3%

50.0% 46.6%

48.2% 46.3%

48.2% 46.1% 44.7%

1980

1990

2000 Utah

2010

2020

U.S.

Note: Middle-class population estimated by household size as the average of 50% to 150% of median household income and the 30th to 70th percentile of the ratio of household income to federal poverty guidelines. Economic conditions in Utah and the U.S. varied during these window years. Recessions occurred during parts of 1980, 1990, and 2021. Recovery from the Great Recession began in 2010. Utah and U.S. economic performance were relatively strong in 2000. These results are from survey data subject to uncertainty from sampling error. Census Bureau samples in both Utah and the U.S. included 5.0% of all households from 1980 to 2000 and 1.0% 100% of households in 2010 and 2021. Comparisons to 2020 sample data are not recommended due to uncharacteristic survey issues.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Integrated Public Use Microdata Series

18

80%Economy Utah

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

1980

1990

Don't bank on it 2000

Utah

2010

2020

U.S.

Net percentage of domestic banks tightening standards for commercial and industrial loans to small and large/middle-market firms, 1991-2023

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

-40% 1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

Large and middle-market firms

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

Small firms

Source: Board of Governor's of the Federal Reserve System

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Utah Economy

19

Teens at work Percent change in U.S. labor force participation rate by age since January 2019, 2019-2023

10% 16–19 5%

25–54

0%

20–24 55+

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

35% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

20

Utah Economy 30%

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

16–19for 2024 Utah Informed: Visual Intellection

-15%

-20%

2019

2020

Young money 2021

2022

2023

U.S. wage growth by age since 2019, 2019-2023

35% 16–19 30%

25%

25–54 20–24 55+

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Utah Economy

21

Utah’s elite economy Job growth for all 50 states, 2000-2023

20% Utah ranks #4: 5.1% in 2021 Utah expansion peak: 5.4%, Jun 2006

10%

Utah ranks #2: -0.7% in 2020 Utah ranks #3: 2.8% in 2019

0% Utah 2.9%, US 2.0%: June 2023

Utah recession-related trough: -1.5%, Dec 2001

-10%

Utah pandemic recession-related trough: -7.7%, Apr 2020

Utah Great Recession-related trough: -6.2%, Aug 2009 -20%

-30% 2000

2002

2004

2006

2008 Utah

2010

2012 U.S.

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

Other states

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget 4.50

22

Utah Economy 4.00

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

Unbalanced Unemployed persons per job opening ratio rate by state, 2022

0.72 0.33 0.62

0.43

0.28 0.38

0.39

0.41

0.33 0.44 0.78 0.63

0.57

0.43

0.63

0.43

0.36 0.34

0.67 0.40 0.45

0.56

0.37

0.47

0.58 0.50

0.50

0.38 0.50

0.43 0.47

0.43 0.54

0.56

0.74

0.63

VT 0.38 NH 0.37 MA 0.52 RI 0.47 CT 0.71 NJ 0.65 DE 0.58 MD 0.50 DC 0.40

0.40

0.39

0.50

0.47 0.47 0.60

0.28

0.78

Note: A value lower than one indicates more job openings than unemployed persons. Lower values indicate tighter labor market conditions.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

140%

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

120%

Utah Economy

23

0.47 0.47 0.60

0.28

Debt dilemma

0.78

Total federal debt as a share of U.S. GDP, 1966-2023

140%

120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0% 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Department of the Treasury

24

Public Finance

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

A penny for your pantry State-imposed sales tax rates on groceries by state, 2023

6.0%

4.5%

1.0%

1.75% 6.5%

4.5%

1.225% 4.0% .125% 7.0% 4.0%

4.0%

0.1%

7.0%

Note: Local governments may also impose a sales tax on groceries. Some states offer rebates or tax credits to compensate low-income households.

Utah's 1.75% state-imposed sales tax on groceries will be removed if voters approve the 2024 ballot measure adjusting the constitutional earmark of income taxes (1.25% local tax remains).

Source: Federation of Tax Administrators

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Public Finance

25

4.0%

The most hated tax

0.1%

7.0%

Median property taxes paid by county, 2017-2021

$2,229

Ada County, ID

Salt Lake County, UT

Los Angeles County CA

$2,365

$5,377 Kings County, NY

$4,675 Dallas County, TX

No Data

$3,850

$200

$10,000

Note: Missing values are due to small sample sizes in low-population counties.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017-2021 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates and Tax Foundation

26

Public Finance

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

1% 0%

1932

1939

1946

1953

Your vote matters

1960

1967

1974

1981

Corporate income tax

1988

1995

2002

2009

2016

2023

Individual income tax

Utah's state budget allocation process, 2023

Legislature imposes taxes and fees

1

Other Taxes and Fees

Income Tax

Sales Tax

C Legislature passes laws that channel revenue into different funds (or accounts)

2

Legislature annually authorizes spending from funds

3

Reg. Fees

Other Fees

C

Income Tax Fund

Public Education

Gas Tax

General Fund

Higher Education

Medicaid

Transportation Fund

Various Other Funds

Transportation Public Safety & Corrections

Everything Else

C Mandated by Utah Constitution

Note: A 2024 ballot measure will ask Utah’s voters whether or not to adjust the constitutional earmark of income taxes if certain education funding conditions remain in place.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Utah Governor's Office of Planning and Budget and Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Public Finance

27

Nevada Washington Tennessee Louisiana South Dakota Arkansas Alabama New Mexico Florida Texas Arizona Mississippi Oklahoma Hawaii Ohio Indiana Idaho West Virginia Kentucky North Carolina Utah Kansas Missouri Wyoming South Carolina Georgia Colorado Iowa United States Total Michigan Pennsylvania North Dakota Illinois Rhode Island Wisconsin Nebraska Maine Minnesota Virginia Vermont Maryland Connecticut California New Jersey New York Alaska Massachusetts District of Columbia Montana New Hampshire Oregon Delaware

0%

Housing inventory has long COVID

Sales and gross receipts taxes

Individual income tax

Property tax

Corporate income tax

Excise taxes & other

Change in the number of new listings for sale by state between October 2019 and 2022

-24.5% -20.4%

-17.2%

-2.1%

-29.7%

-24.4%

-31.1%

-19.7%

- 26.8%

-36.5% -26.1%

-27.0% -15.9%

-29.2%

-22.2%

-20.1%

-14.8%

-13.3%

-11.3% -24.8%

-21.2%

-25.5%

-16.2%

-11.7% - 4.7%

-16.0%

-17.4%

-14.6%

-0.9% -24.5% -16.7%

-15.1% 0.3%

VT -28.0% NH -25.6% MA -25.1% RI -23.2% CT -28.7% NJ -34.5% DE -38.7% MD -26.8% DC -10.5%

-11.7% -3.7%

-1.6%

-20.1%

-5.0% -9.9% -23.3% -2.0% -33.2%

0.3%

-38.7%

Source: Realtor.com

28

Real Estate and Construction

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

Out of reach Price of a starter home in Utah, 2000-2023

$500,000

$432,000

$450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

$0

Note: Starter home price is assumed at 80% of median sales price.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of UtahRealEstate.com data

68.5% DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

65.6%

66.9%

Real Estate and Construction 57.5

66.2% 66.3%

VT 58.8%

29

$100,000

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

2007

Utahns are locked in

$0

2018

$50,000

Share of existing mortgages with an interest rate at 4% or lower by state, 2023 Q2

68.5% 65.6%

57.5

66.2% 66.3%

66.9% 68.4%

65.6%

66.8%

68.5%

71.9%

64.2%

69.6%

54.4%

56.1%

62.9%

64.1%

60.7%

59.2% 59.1%

51.4%

58.9%

56.1% 57.6% 56.4%

48.8% 64.3% 58.8%

57.4%

56.9%

54.7% 51.7%

55.0%

53.3%

58.9%

64.9%

VT 58.8% NH 62.7% MA 65.9% RI 61.8% CT 59.5% NJ 60.1% DE 59.0% MD 62.3% DC 64.6%

54.9% 56.7%

52.4%

63.4% 55.1% 65.1%

48.8%

71.9%

Source: The Federal Housing Finance Agency

30

Real Estate and Construction

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

The equity safe Average home equity as a share of value for homes with a mortgage by state, 2023 Q2

54.5% 56.2%

55.3%

44.6% 49.5%

52.7% 55.8%

52.5%

51.7%

50.4%

51.3% 52.9%

52.0%

57.3%

52.8%

50.4%

50.5%

48.9% 47.1% 50.3%

49.8% 48.5%

49.3%

50.0% 47.4%

49.6%

48.0%

51.9%

52.6% 48.4%

50.4% 47.5%

50.8%

54.5%

51.2%

47.6%

VT 56.0% NH 54.6% MA 55.1% RI 52.3% CT 49.5% NJ 51.8% DE 49.2% MD 46.4% DC 50.4%

50.9%

46.9% 44.7%

44.4% 53.45 57.2%

44.4%

57.3%

Source: The$1,200 Federal Housing Finance Agency DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

$1,000

Real Estate and Construction

31

44.7% 44.4% 53.45 57.2%

Shocking!

44.4%

57.3%

Median sales price of existing single-family homes by state, 1970-2023

$1,200

$1,000

Hawaii California District of Columbia

Thousands of USD

$800

Massachussetts Colorado $600

Washington Oregon Utah

$400

West Virginia

$200

$0

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

Source: National Association of Realtors

32

Real Estate and Construction

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

A decade of density Share of permitted housing units by type in Utah, 2010-2022

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

Single family

30%

Condominium, townhome, twin home units Apartment units

20%

10%

0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

80%

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

D A V I D60% ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Real Estate and Construction

33

20%

10%

The high cost of owning

0% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Median single-family mortgage payment compared to median single-family rent in Utah, 2010-2023

80%

60%

40%

20%

Owning premium

0%

Owning discount

-20%

-40%

-60%

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

-80%

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of RentRange and UtahRealEstate.com and FreddieMac data

34

Real Estate and Construction

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

659

500

0

2018

934

740

509

170 rates hold the reins Interest

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Median monthly sales price and new mortgage payment in Utah, 2020-2023

$600,000

$3,500

$500,000

$3,000

$2,500

$400,000

$2,000 $300,000 $1,500 $200,000 $1,000 $100,000

$500

$0 2020

2021 Median sales price

2022

2023

$0

Median monthly payment

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of UtahRealEstate.com and FreddieMac data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Real Estate and Construction

35

Fewer billings, fewer buildings Architecture Billings Index, residential and commercial/industrial, U.S., 1999-2023

70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

Commercial & industrial

2014

2017

2020

2023

Residential

Note: The Architecture Billings Index is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms asking whether their billings increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the previous month. A score greater than 50 indicates a higher proportion of architecture firms reporting increases, while a score below 50 denotes a higher share reporting decreases in billings. The findings amount to a leading economic indicator that provides an approximately six month glimpse into the future of construction activity. The y-axis begins at 20 to better show fluctuations in the index.

Source: The American Institute of Architects

20%

36

Real Estate and Construction

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 12.8%

$205.6

$105.8

Iron $130.2 Washington $248.3

$780.7 Garfield $1,529.7

San Juan $320.0

Kane $1,781.9

Eclipsing other years $1,969.01

$20.49

Utah hotel room occupancy rate in annular eclipse pathway counties, second weekend in October, 2018-2023

100% 90%

89.0%

80% 70% 60%

69.6%

76.0%

80.2%

77.6%

80.2% October 14, 2023 Annular Eclipse

50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Note: "Annular Ecliple Pathway Counties" include Beaver, Garfield, Juab, Millard, San Juan, Sevier, and Wayne Counties.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of STR, Inc. data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Travel and Tourism

37

30 25 20

1999

2002

2005

Tourists went rural...

2008

2011

Commercial & industrial

2014

2017

2020

2023

Residential

Year-over change in Utah leisure and hospitality employment compared to 2019 baseline, 2020-2023

20%

12.8% 10%

11.3% 6.4% 4.2%

0.5% 0%

- 4.8% -10% - 10.8% - 13.6%

-20%

2020

2021

2022 Urban

2023 (Q1)

Rural

Note: This figure includes private full- and part-time employment; self-employed are not included. Urban Utah includes Davis, Salt Lake, Utah, and Weber counties and Rural Utah includes all other counties.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data

38

Travel and Tourism

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

...And their taxes did, too County transient room tax revenue per household in Utah, 2022

$36.1 Cache $1,701.6 Rich $30.2 Weber $21.3 Davis $20.5 Morgan $1,361.3 Dagget

Box Elder $33.6

Tooele $32.7

Salt Lake $63.3

Summit $1,309.5 Wasatch $362.4 Duchesne $25.3

Utah $33.5 Juab $58.1

Carbon $63.0 Sanpete $24.2

Millard $71.0

Sevier $106.5 Beaver $205.6 Iron $130.2 Washington $248.3 $20.49

Uintah $89.2

Piute $105.8

Emery $198.2

Grand $1,969.0

Wayne $780.7 Garfield $1,529.7

San Juan $320.0

Kane $1,781.9 $1,969.01

Note: Household data include 2021 ACS 5-year estimates.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau and Utah State Tax Commission data

100%

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

90%

Travel and Tourism

39

A saturated short-term rental market Year-over change in hotel and short-term rental occupancy rates in Utah, 2022 Q4-2023 Q3

2% 0.5%

0.2%

0%

-0.2% -1.1%

-2%

-3.3% -4%

-6% -6.5% -8%

-7.9% -9.0%

-10%

Q4 2022

Q1 2023 Hotel

Q2 2023

Q3 2023

Short-term rental

Note: Short term rentals include unique listings on Airbnb, VRBO, HomeAway, Booking, and TripAdvisor; rentals listed as "other" and subtypes listed as "shared room" have been omitted.

1,000 Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of STR, Inc. and Transparent data

40

900 and Tourism Travel 800

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

-8%

-7.9% -9.0%

Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!

-10%

Q4 2022

Q1 2023

Hotel

Q2 2023

Q3 2023

Short-term rental

Utah snowfall and skier days, 2004 -2005 ski season through 2022-2023 ski season

1,000 900

Inches of snow & skier days in 10,000s

800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2004-2005

2007-2008

2010-2011 Snow in inches

2013-2014

2016-2017

2019-2020

2022-2023

Skier days (in 10,000s)

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Alta Ski Resort and Ski Utah data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Travel and Tourism

41

Travel got better SLC International Airport seats per departure, 2014-2023

New SLC Phase 1

New SLC Phase 2

140 137 131

Number of seats per departure

120

100

111

113

2015

2016

116

120

120

120

2018

2019

2020

124

105

80

60

40

20

0

2014

2017

2021

2022

2023

Note: New SLC Phase 1 and 2 refer to airport renovation and expansion phases. New gates accomodate larger aircraft with higher seating capacity.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of SLC International Airport data

42

$2,500 Travel and Tourism

$2,304

$2,165

(+15.8%) Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute (-5.1%)

$1,981

20

0

2014

We're all outdoor enthusiasts now 2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Utah outdoor recreation-related taxable sales and year-over change, 2018-2022

$2,304

$2,500

$1,981 Millions of 2022 USD

$2,165 (-5.1%)

(+28.9%)

$2,000

$1,500

(+15.8%)

$1,479

$1,540 (+4.2%)

$1,000

$500

$0

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Sporting goods stores

RV dealers

Recreational goods rental

Sporting & rec goods & supplies

RV parks/campgrounds

Nature parks/similar instituations

Recreational vacation camps

Recreational vacation camps

Boat dealers

Source: Kem C. Gardner Institute Analysis of Utah State Tax Commission data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Travel and Tourism

43

Did the Arches timed entry pilot cause declines?

Change in national park visitation since 2019, April-October, 2022 and 2023

5% 1.3% 0%

-0.2%

-1.2% -3.3%

-5% -5.3%

-7.6% -10%

-9.8% -11.9%

-15% -16.0% -20%

-19.3%

-25%

2022 Arches

2023 Bryce

Canyonlands

Capitol Reef

Zion

Note: Arches National Park Timed Entry Pilot was in place from April to October in 2022 and 2023; the pilot will be back in place again from April to October, 2024.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Institute analysis of National Park Service data

44

Magnesium Travel and Tourism Lithium

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

-25%

2022 Arches

Critical to the future Bryce Canyonlands Capitol Reef

2023 Zion

Utah's critical minerals by geographic location, 2022

Magnesium Lithium Platinum Palladium Tellurium Beryllium

Uranium-Vanadium

Lithium Uranium-Vanadium

Uranium-Vanadium

Note: Critical minerals, as defined by the U.S. Geological Survey, are minerals that are essential to the economy and whose supply may be disrupted.

Uranium, while not currently designated as a critical mineral, plays a significant role in Utah's energy economy.

Source: Utah Geological Survey

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Energy and Environment

45

Utah's current energy dependence Utah's energy production and consumption, 1960-2021

1,000

500

800

400

600

300

400

200

200

100

0

0

BTU (trillion)

600

-200 1960

1965

1970

Production

1975

1980

Consumption

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Net energy exporter

2010

2015

2020

Differential - BTU (trillion)

1,200

-100

Net energy importer

Sources: United 1,000 State Energy Information Administration and Utah Geological Survey

46

900 and Environment Energy

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

0

0

-200 1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Renewable: Big growth, but small share Production

Consumption

Net energy exporter

2020

-100

Net energy importer

Utah energy consumption by source, 2011-2021

1,000 900 800 700

BTU (trillion)

600 500 400 300 200 100 0

2012

2011 Coal

2013 Petroleum

2014

2015

2016

Natural gas

2017

2018

Renewable energy

2019

2020

2021

Fossil fuel total

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Energy and Environment

47

Always look on the bright side Utah renewable energy consumption by source, 2011-2021

80,000

70,000

60,000

BTU (billion)

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0 2011

2012

2013 Biomass

2014

2015

Geothermal

2016

2017

Hydropower

2018 Solar

2019

2020

2021

Wind

120Energy Data System Source: State

48

110 Energy and Environment 100

120 Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 109

10,000

0 2011

2012

2013 Biomass

2014

Got oil?

2015

Geothermal

2016

2017

2018

Hydropower

2019

Solar

2020

2021

Wind

Uinta Basin waxy crude oil production, 2017-2023

120 120

110 109

Barrels per day oil production (thousand)

100 90 87

80

87

86

79 70

71

60 50 40 30 20 10 0

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Source: Utah Division of Oil, Gas, and Mining

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Energy and Environment

49

What's your bill?

Residential electricity and natural gas prices in U.S. and Intermountain West, May 2023

25

20

15

10

5

0 U.S. average

Utah

New Mexico

Residential electricity (¢ per kWh)

Nevada

Arizona

Idaho

Colorado

Residential natural gas ( $/1,000 cu. ft.)

4,212

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

50

4,210 Energy and Environment 4,208

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

5

0 U.S. average

Utah

A hemispheric challenge New Mexico

Nevada

Residential electricity (¢ per kWh)

Arizona

Idaho

Colorado

Residential natural gas ( $/1,000 cu. ft.)

Annual average Great Salt Lake elevation, 1903-2023

4,212 4,210 4,208 4,206 4,204

Elevation (feet)

4,202 4,200

Average elevation: 1903-present (4,199)

4,198 4,196 4,194 4,192 4,190 4,188 1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

North Arm

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

South Arm

Note: Average elevation in 2023 is calculated through October 1, 2023.

Source: U.S. Geological Survey Historical Elevation at Saltair Boar Harbor and Saline, UT

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Energy and Environment

51

Thank you Mother Nature!

Reservoir storage in the Great Salt Lake Basin, 1989-2023

3,400

Capacity

3,200 3,000

Recent high: July 2023

2,800 2,600 2,400

Storage (KAF)

2,200 1,606 KAF

2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400

Recent low: November 2022

1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0

1992

1997

2002

2007

2012

2017

2022

Note: KAF stands for thousand acre-feet.

Source: Utah Division of Water Resources

EnergyDeductibles and Environment

ual

52

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 3.7% Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

800 600 400 200 0

1992

Rising health care costs

1997

2002

2007

2012

2017

2022

Individual

Real average annual growth in Utah’s individual and family income compared to health insurance costs, 2011-2021

Deductibles

3.7%

Premiums

2.7%

Income

1.1%

of Utahns worry about affording health insurance in the future.

Family

Deductibles

2.5%

Premiums

4.7%

Income

0%

69%

1.4%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

Note: Income is median non-family and family income. Premiums and deductibles represent average employee contributions for private-sector employees enrolled in single and family coverage.

Sources: Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data and Census Bureau, American Community Survey data 2011-2021

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Health

53

Changing substance use landscape Share of drug overdose deaths in Utah by substance, 2016-2023

60%

Share of drug overdose deaths

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

2016

2017

2018

Prescription opioid

2019

2020

Methamphetamine

2021

2022

Heroin

Fentanyl

2023*

Note: Most poisoning deaths involve more than one substance; therefore, the share of deaths by substance in a given year will not sum to 100%. Data are available from January 1 through June 2023. Estimates are based on deaths that occurred in Utah, regardless of the decedent’s residence status. Data are obtained from the Utah Medical Examiner Database (UMED) based on data available for analysis on November 9 , 2023. Drug poisoning (overdose) deaths were defined as having an International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD–10-CM) underlying-cause-of-death code of X40–X44 (unintentional) or Y10–Y14 (undetermined intent).

One limitation of the ICD–10 classification system is that, with few exceptions, ICD–10 codes reflect broad categories of drugs rather than specific drugs; therefore, the immediate cause of death variable (text field) on the death certificate was used to identify specific drugs in overdose deaths (e.g., fentanyl and methamphetamine).

Counts are preliminary. It is possible that current pending deaths will be certified as drug overdoses in the future and the manner of death in currently registered cases may be amended as additional information about the death becomes available.

Source: Analysis performed by Megan Broekemeier, Drug Overdose Prevention Research Coordinator, Utah Department of Health and Human Services. Data from the Utah Office of the Medical Examiner.

54

Health

Over

350,000

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

0%

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023*

50th anniversary of the Rehabilitation Act Prescription opioid

Methamphetamine

Heroin

Fentanyl

The Rehabilitation Act is the first federal legislation to address access and equity for people with disabilities and provide employment protections to people with disabilities.

Over

350,000

Utahns have a disability, or

10.6%

of the population.

Only

5 10 in

Utahns

with a disability are employed.

Note: The Rehabilitation Act is the first federal legislation to address access and equity for people with disabilities and provide employment protections to people with disabilities. For purposes of these data, "disability" is defined as someone who said "yes" to one or more of the following questions: 1. Are you blind or do you have serious difficulty seeing, even when wearing glasses? 2. Because of a physical, mental, or emotional condition, do you have serious difficulty concentrating, remembering, or making decisions? 3. Do you have serious difficulty walking or climbing stairs? 4. Do you have difficulty dressing or bathing? 5. Because of a physical, mental, or emotional condition, do you have any difficulty doing errands alone such as visiting a doctor's office or shopping? 6. Are you deaf or do you have serious difficulty hearing?

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 1-Year American Community Survey Estimates

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Health

55

Alarm bells for children...

Children ages 12-17 years

Children ages 6-11 years

Parents of children under age 3

Select mental health indicators among children and parents, 2020-2021

12.6%

Mother reports fair/poor mental health

5.2%

Parent reports not coping very well with the daily demands of raising children

44.6% 31.8% 10.7%

Prevalence of current anxiety

7.1% 2.4%

Prevalence of current depression

1.7%

Children with a mental/behavioral condition who did not receive treatment or counseling

63.7% 54.3% 17.9%

Prevalence of current anxiety

14.5% 7.6%

Prevalence of current depression

8.4%

Children with a mental/behavioral condition who did not receive treatment or counseling

53.1% 41.9% 0%

10%

20%

30% Utah

40%

50%

60%

70%

U.S.

Note:The third column represents children reported by their parents to have been diagnosed by a health care provider with a mental/behavioral condition (depression, anxiety problem, or behavioral or conduct problems). Estimates for ages 3-5 years are suppressed due to large confidence intervals that may not be reliable. Estimates for 6-11 years and 12-17 years have a 95% confidence interval width exceeding 20 percentage points or 1.2 times the estimate and may not be reliable.

Source: Child and Adolescent Health Measurement Initiative. 2020-2021 National Survey of Children’s Health (NSCH) data query. Data Resource Center for Child and Adolescent Health supported by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA), Maternal and Child Health Bureau (MCHB). 2018-2020 National Survey of Children’s Health NSCH Public-Use Data. From Prenatal-to-3 State Policy Roadmap. Retrieved 05/19/2023 from 40% www.childhealthdata.org

56

Health 35%

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: 34.1% Visual Intellection for 2024

Children a 12-17 ye

7.6%

Prevalence of current depression

8.4%

Children with a mental/behavioral condition who did not receive treatment or counseling

53.1%

...And adults, too 0%

10%

20%

30%

41.9% 40%

Utah

50%

60%

70%

U.S.

Select mental health indicators among adults, 2020-2021

40%

34.1%

35%

30%

25%

28.2% 25.3% 22.8%

20%

15%

10% 7.2%

6.3%

5.6% 5%

0%

Any mental illness

Serious mental illness Utah

4.9%

Serious thoughts Of suicide U.S.

Adult with any mental illness reporting unmet treatment needs

Sources: Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA), Center for Behavioral Health Statistics and Quality, National Survey on Drug Use and Health, 2021

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Health

57

More coverage Uninsured rates by household poverty level in Utah, 2012 and 2022

31.2%

Income as a share of federal poverty level

<100%

17.5%

26.1%

100%-199%

15.2%

11.5%

200%-399%

9.4%

5.5%

400%+

4.9%

15.4%

Total

9.0% 0%

5%

10%

15% 2012

20%

25%

30%

35%

2022

Note: ACS includes a 1% sample of the US population and allows for precise state-level estimates. The U.S. Census Bureau's poverty threshold for a family with two adults and one child was $23,556 in 2022.

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) estimates based on the 2012-2022 American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates

0%

58 nt

Health

May-23

-3%

Jun-23

Jul-23

Aug-23

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Sep-23

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

15.4%

Total

9.0% 0%

Less coverage

5%

10%

15%

2012

20%

25%

30%

35%

2022

Cumulative percent change in Utah monthly medicaid enrollment, May 2023-September 2023

Cumulative percent change in Medicaid monthly enrollment

0%

May-23

Jun-23

Jul-23

Aug-23

Sep-23

-3% -5%

-9% -10%

-13% -15%

-20%

-16% -20%

Note: The COVID-19 Public Health Emergency required states to continue Medicaid coverage for all members even if their eligibility changed. The 2023 Consolidated Appropriations Act established April 1, 2023 as the end of the continuous enrollment requirement for Medicaid. On March 1, 2023, the Utah Department of Workforce Services began reviewing eligibility for all Medicaid cases as part of the "unwinding" process, which will continue until April 2024. Utah's Medicaid enrollment declined by 58,250 members from April to September 2023. A person is disenrolled if they no longer qualify for Medicaid services or updated eligibility information was not provided to Utah Medicaid by the due date. That said, starting in January 2024, Utah Medicaid will expand continuous coverage to postpartum women and their newborns for 12 months post-birth as well as an estimated 2,000 newly eligible non-citizen children through the Children Health Insurance Program (CHIP).

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) analysis of state administrative data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Health

59

Who stayed?

Percent change in Utah's private sector health care employment compared to 10-year average before COVID-19 pandemic, 2022

35% 29.0%

30% 25%

22.8%

20% 15% 9.2%

2.3%

0%

-0.4%

-5%

-1.9%

-3.9%

2021-2022 percent change

General medical and surgical hospitals

Skilled nursing care facilities

Home health care services

Psychiatric and substance use disorder hospitals

Mental health practitioners

Mental health physicians

-5.0% Physicians

-10%

1.5%

Registered nurses

5%

Assisted living facilities

10%

10-year average annual percent change (before COVID-19 pandemic)

Note: The columns represent a one-year percent change in employment. The black line represents the 10-year average annual percent change in employment.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Registered nurse data are from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupation Employment and Wages Statistics.

60

0% Health -2%

English Language Arts

Mathematics Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Science Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

Regis n

General m and su hos

Assisted l fac

Skilled nu care fac

Home h care ser

Psychiatri substanc disorder hos

Mental h practiti

Mental h physi

Physi

2021-2022 percent change

10-year average annual percent change (before COVID-19 pandemic)

Pandemic learning loss

Change in student proficiency rates from 2019 to 2023

0%

English Language Arts

Mathematics

-2%

Science

-3.1%

-3.7% -4% -5.4% -6% -8%

-9.3% -10%

-10.9%

-12% -14% -15.8% -16% -18% All students

Economically disadvantaged students

Note: Economically disadvantaged students are measured as students qualifying for free or reduced-price lunch. Measured using RISE test scores grades 3-8 for English Language Arts and Mathematics and grades 4-8 for Science.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Institute analysis of Utah State Board of Education data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Education

61

20% 10% 0%

A turning point

2021-22

2022-23

2023-24

Change in Utah K-12 enrollment, 2004-05 to 2034-35

20,000 Historical

Projected

15,000

10,000

5,000

-

2034-35

2033-34

2032-33

2031-32

2030-31

2029-30

2028-29

2027-28

2026-27

2025-26

2024-25

2022-23 2023-24

2021-22

2020-21

2019-20

2018-19

2017-18

2016-17

2015-16

2014-15

2013-14

2012-13

2011-12

2010-11

2009-10

2008-09

2007-08

2006-07

2005-06

(10,000)

2004-05

(5,000)

Note: Enrollment projections calculated as the average enrollment share of the school-age population from 2020-2022 (94.5%).

Sources: Utah State Board of Education and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Long-term Population Projections

62

Education

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

Bueller?

Share of Utah students who were chronically absent, 2011-12 to 2022-23

25.2% 27.2%

30%

25%

20%

19.0%

14.3%

15% 11.9% 10.6%

12.2%

11.3%

11.9%

12.5%

12.9%

9.2%

10%

5%

0%

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20* 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23

Note: A student is considered chronically absent if they were absent for more than 10% of days enrolled.

Source:3,500 Utah State Board of Education

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

3,000

2,786

3,138

3,115 Education

63

5%

0%

Be prepared

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20* 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23

Number of education preparation program completers, 2011-12 to 2020-23

3,500 3,138

3,115

2021-22

2022-23

3,000 2,786

2,693 2,452

2,500

2,563

2,673 2,403

2,365 2,133

2,340

2,047

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

Sources: Title II Higher Education Act National Teacher Preparation Reports and Utah State Board of Education

64

Education

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

The debt that was almost forgiven Median balance for student loan borrowers by state, 2022 Q4

$17,830 $17,530

$15,960

$20,500 $17,980 $15,500 $16,280 $17,350

$17,750

$17,390

$16,760 $16,750

$16,240

$19,810

$17,540

$17,710

$18,360

$17,880 $17,100

$19,820

$19,160

$19,990 $19,750 $19,550 $18,200 $18,060 $21,260 $19,360 $18,670 $21,020 $19,610 $20,620 $17,320

$16,570

$19,760 $18,660

$17,270

VT $19,220 NH $19,300 MA $19,230 RI $17,120 CT $19,750 NJ $19,550 DE $19,750 MD $22,260 DC $28,270

$22,310

$17,540 $17,210

$19,530 $17,790

$15,500

$28,270

Note: The U.S. Supreme Court struck down a debt relief plan in June 2023 that would have erased up to $10,000 in federal student loan debt for most borrowers and up to $20,000 for Pell Grant recipients.

Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York

2.7%

Education

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

0.6%

0.8%

0.5%

VT 0.1%

65

$17,540 $17,210

$19,530 $17,790

Welcome home $15,500

$28,270

Utah in-migrant place of birth, 2021

2.7% 0.6% 0.8%

0.5%

4.0%

1.7%

0.3%

1.7% 15.9%

4.4%

2.4%

0.8%

1.0%

0.5%

0.2% 26.9%

1.5%

0.9%

0.5%

1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2%

0.4%

0.3% 0.4%

1.6% 1.0%

0.5% 0.0%

0.6% 0.1% 0.3%

3.4%

0.8%

VT 0.1% NH 0.3% MA 0.3% RI 0.3% CT 0.4% NJ 0.5% DE 0.3% MD 1.3% DC 0.9%

1.0%

0.5%

0.2% 1.4% 0.3%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2021 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates

66

Demographics

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

Hello, my new friend Utah net migration, 2010-2023

40,000

35,000

30,000

Net migration

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Source: 5.0Utah Population Committee

4.30

D A V4.5 ID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Demographics

67

10,000

5,000

0

2010

2011

2012

2013

Bye bye, baby 2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Total fertility rate, 1960-2021

5.0

4.30

4.5 4.0 3.5

2.68

3.0

1.92

2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5

Utah

U.S.

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

1964

1962

1960

0.0

Replacement

Source: National Center for Health Statistics

68

Demographics

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

Jobs draw people Reasons for migrating to Utah, 2020-2060 projections

100

80

60

86%

83%

80%

77%

14%

17%

20%

23%

40

20

0

2020s

2030s

2040s

Retirement-related

Employment-related

2050s

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 2020-2060 Projections

5.3% Demographics 0.1%

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

1.1%

4.1%

0.5% 0.1%

VT 0.0%

69

20

0

23%

20%

17%

14%

Welcome, neighbors!

2020s

2030s

2040s

2050s

Retirement-related

Employment-related

Utah in-migrant domestic origins, 2021

5.3% 1.1%

0.1%

0.5% 0.1%

4.1% 6.6% 1.3%

1.2%

0.0%

3.8%

16.6%

4.6%

1.1%

0.3%

0.7%

0.5%

3.3%

2.4%

0.5%

1.7% 0.2% 0.4%

0.5%

0.1%

1.0% 0.1%

0.3%

1.3%

VT 0.0% NH 0.3% MA 2.0% RI 0.1% CT 0.5% NJ 0.5% DE 0.6% MD 0.54% DC 0.1%

0.5%

0.8% 0.3%

0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

2.0%

7.2% 0.3% 0.7% 3.0% 2.1%

Note: International out-migrants are not included in the data.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2021 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, Integrated Public Use Microdata Series

70

Demographics

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

Quite the contrast Utah and United States projected annual percentage population growth rates, 2025-2060

2.0% 1.8%

Average Annual Rate of Change

1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

Utah

United States

2050

2055

2060

Note: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute's Baseline Scenario and the Census Bureau's "middle" scenario presented.

State ofC.Utah Sources: Kem Gardner Policy Institute 2020-2060 Projections (Utah series) and U.S. Census Bureau (United States series)

Dagget Piute D A V I D E CKane CLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Wayne Garfield

Demographics

71

0.4% 0.2% 0.0%

2025

Better with age?

2030

2035

2040

2045

Utah

United States

2050

2055

2060

Percent of population age 65 or older by county, 2010 and 2020

State of Utah Dagget Piute Kane Wayne Garfield Washington Carbon Grand Rich Emery Millard Sevier Sanpete San Juan Beaver Summit Iron Duchesne Box Elder Wasatch Juab Morgan Weber Uintah Salt Lake Davis Cache Tooele Utah 5%

10%

15%

20% 2010

25%

30%

2020

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Summary File 1 (SF1), 2020 Census Demographic and Housing Characteristics File (DHC), 2010

72

Demographics

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

Older, rural Utah Median age by county, 2020

26.3 33

38

32.9 33.6

31.4

47.6

40.8

32.9 31.4

35.3

33.3

25.9 30.7

31.5

U.S. median age:

38.8

38.6 33.7

36.1

38.3

40.5

36.3 34.4

44.7

28.9

47.3

Utah median age:

31.3

43.3 34.6

37.6

44.9

25.9

47.6

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2020 Census Demographic and Housing Characteristics File (DHC)

3%

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

13%

27%

Demographics

73

34.4

44.7

28.9

31.3

47.3 43.3 34.6

An international city

37.6

44.9

25.9

47.6

Salt Lake City foreign-born population by region of origin, 2017-2021

3%

13%

27%

Europe North America

Asia Africa Latin America

Oceania

47%

6%

4%

Note: Foreign-born Salt Lake City residents account for about 15% of the city's population and 17% of the city's labor force.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017-2021 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates

74

Demographics

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

Bucking the trend Population change for Salt Lake City, Utah, and select cities, July 2021-July 2022

Salt Lake City -0.9%

Springville

-0.9%

Kaysville

1.7%

Layton

-1.0% -1.2%

Riverton

-1.2%

Provo

-1.3%

Draper

-1.3%

Roy

State average

1.2%

Cottonwood Heights

-1.4%

West Valley City

-1.7%

Holladay

-1.8%

Millcreek

-1.9%

Bountiful

-2.1%

Sandy

-2.2% -2.3%

Orem

-2.3%

Taylorsville

Note: This chart draws from Bureau of the Census estimates of cities or towns with populations of 30,000 or more. The Utah Population Committee estimates differ at the state level and are not available at the subcounty level.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2022 Population Estimates

Married couples

Married couples

D A V I D E C C L E Swithout S C H Ochildren O L O F B Uwith S I Nchildren ESS

Single parents with children

Other family

Nonfamily households Demographics

75

Bountiful

-2.1%

Sandy

-2.2%

Orem

-2.3%

Who's home?

Taylorsville

-2.3%

Utah households by type, 2000-2020

2000 2010 2020

Married couples without children

0%

Married couples with children

30.3%

28.1%

29.3%

31.7%

26.6%

10%

Single parents with children

Other family

7.6%

20%

30%

40%

7.7%

7.8%

36.6%

Nonfamily households

6.4%

8.9%

50%

60%

26.4%

24.8%

4.3%

70%

23.7%

80%

90%

100%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2020 Census Demographic and Housing Characteristics File (DHC)

76

Demographics

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

More multicultural Racial and ethnic minority population shares, 1990 and 2022

1990

2022

9.5%

Minority population

23.3%

Non-hispanic white population

Source: U.S. Census Bureau (1990 Decennial Census; 2020 U.S. Census Bureau Population Division)

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Demographics

77

Probability of making informed decisions

TM

The whole point

Accurate data and information

78

Utah Informed

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024

K E M C . G A R D N E R P O L I C Y I N S T I T U T E S TA F F A N D A D V I S O R S Leadership Team

Staff

Natalie Gochnour, Associate Dean and Director Jennifer Robinson, Chief of Staff Mallory Bateman, Director of Demographic Research Phil Dean, Chief Economist and Senior Research Fellow Shelley Kruger, Accounting and Finance Manager Colleen Larson, Administrative and Events Manager Nate Lloyd, Director of Economic Research Dianne Meppen, Director of Community Research Laura Summers, Director of Industry Research Nicholas Thiriot, Communications Director James A. Wood, Ivory-Boyer Senior Fellow

Eric Albers, Public Policy Analyst Samantha Ball, Senior Research Associate Parker Banta, Public Policy Analyst Melanie Beagley, Public Policy Analyst Andrea Thomas Brandley, Senior Education Analyst Preston Brightwell, Dignity Index Field Director Kara Ann Byrne, Senior Research Associate Mike Christensen, Scholar-in-Residence Nate Christensen, Research Economist Dejan Eskic, Senior Research Fellow and Scholar Murphy Georger, Communications Specialist Emily Harris, Senior Demographer Michael T. Hogue, Senior Research Statistician Mike Hollingshaus, Senior Demographer Thomas Holst, Senior Energy Analyst Madeleine Jones, Dignity Index Field Director Jennifer Leaver, Senior Tourism Analyst Levi Pace, Senior Research Economist Praopan Pratoomchat, Senior Research Economist Heidi Prior, Public Policy Analyst Natalie Roney, Research Economist Shannon Simonsen, Research Coordinator Paul Springer, Senior Graphic Designer

Faculty Advisors Matt Burbank, College of Social and Behavioral Science Elena Patel, David Eccles School of Business Nathan Seegert, David Eccles School of Business

Senior Advisors Jonathan Ball, Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst Silvia Castro, Suazo Business Center Gary Cornia, Marriott School of Business Emma Houston, University of Utah Beth Jarosz, Population Reference Bureau Darin Mellott, CBRE Pamela S. Perlich, Community-at-Large Chris Redgrave, Community-at-Large Juliette Tennert, Community-at-Large

Partners in the Community

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Advisory Board

The following individuals and entities help support the research mission of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.

Conveners Michael O. Leavitt Mitt Romney

Legacy Partners The Gardner Company Christian and Marie Gardner Family Intermountain Health Clark and Christine Ivory Foundation KSL and Deseret News Larry H. & Gail Miller Family Foundation Mountain America Credit Union Salt Lake City Corporation Salt Lake County University of Utah Health Utah Governor’s Office of Economic Opportunity WCF Insurance Zions Bank

Board Scott Anderson, Co-Chair Gail Miller, Co-Chair Doug Anderson Deborah Bayle Roger Boyer Michelle Camacho Sophia M. DiCaro Cameron Diehl Lisa Eccles Spencer P. Eccles Christian Gardner

Executive Partners The Boyer Company Clyde Companies Sustaining Partners Dominion Energy Salt Lake Chamber Staker Parson Materials and Construction Wells Fargo

Kem C. Gardner Kimberly Gardner Natalie Gochnour Brandy Grace Jeremy Hafen Rachel Hayes Clark Ivory Mike S. Leavitt Derek Miller Ann Millner Sterling Nielsen Jason Perry Ray Pickup Gary B. Porter Taylor Randall Jill Remington Love

Brad Rencher Josh Romney Charles W. Sorenson James Lee Sorenson Vicki Varela Ex Officio (invited) Governor Spencer Cox Speaker Mike Schultz Senate President Stuart Adams Representative Angela Romero Senator Luz Escamilla Mayor Jenny Wilson Mayor Erin Mendenhall

Salt Lake Chamber Board of Directors Derek B. Miller, President & CEO Gary W. Hoogeveen, Chair Nathan R. Callister, Vice Chair Allison Behjani Judd Cook Amanda Covington Marlise Fisher Nate Foster

Darla Gill Natalie Gochnour Jeremy Hafen Kay Hall Rob Hitchcock Clark Ivory Matt Lyon Dr. Donna Milavetz

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

I

Thomas S. Monson Center 411 E. South Temple Street Salt Lake City, UT 84111 801-585-5618 gardner.utah.edu

I

I

DAV I D E CC L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S UNIVERSITY OF UTAH

Sterling Nielsen David Petersen Gary B. Porter Pres. Taylor Randall Susan Robel Ryan Starks Linda Wardell