Utah Informed Visual Intellection 2022

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

I

U N I V E R S I T Y O F U TA H

In Par tnership with the Salt Lake Chamber

KEM C. GARDNER POLIC Y INSTITUTE

We are an honest broker of

INFORMED RESEARCH that guides

INFORMED DISCUSSIONS and leads to

INFORMED D E C I S I O N S™

January 2022 Dear friends, The past year will be remembered for many things, but perhaps most memorable will be the lack of normalcy in our everyday lives. We face a seriously divided world and country, new macroeconomic challenges, price instability, bigger government, new models of education, and other shifts in daily life.

Yale University professor Nicholas Christakis identifies three shifts caused by past pandemics: a growth in state power, a search for meaning, and increased caution because of the closeness of death. Many of these trends resonate nationally and in Utah.

The U.S. fiscal response to the pandemic approaches 25% of GDP (compared to about 7% during the Great Recession and less than 1% during the Dot-com bust). Amenity migration has taken hold as people search for greater meaning in life. And, as the COVID-19 death toll approaches 820,000 in the U.S. and 3,800 in Utah, our own mortality feels closer than ever.

Utahns see other important trends – rapid population growth, a shrinking inland sea, a labor shortage, and lower standardized test scores in 5th-8th grade since the start of the pandemic. Like the nation, we too are changing.

The past year also brought welcoming news, including increased funding for those in need. The Community Foundation of Utah increased giving to nonprofits nearly threefold from 2020 to 2021. The most recent data shows over 450,000 Utah adults provided unpaid giving services on an annual basis to their family and friends. Nationally, Google searches for how to help others included questions like, “How to help Afghan refugees,”“How to help Texas,” and “How to help foster kids.” These statistics remind us of the value of service born from a generous heart.

The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute serves as an honest broker of informed research, that guides informed discussions, and leads to INFORMED DECISIONS™. In this sixth edition of Utah Informed we document the past and illuminate the future with the hope it will help you make wise decisions in 2022.

Thanks for your interest,

Natalie Gochnour

Rachel Hayes

Derek Miller

Director, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Interim Dean, David Eccles School of Business

President & CEO, Salt Lake Chamber

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

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Contents Current Affairs Words and phrases to know. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Top Google searches in the United States, 2021. . . . . . 6 Discoveries in 2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Population growth, 2010-2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Share of employees quitting their job in September of each year, 2001–2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Federal fiscal response to recent recessions as percent of GDP. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Great Salt Lake water level, 2000-2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 CPI for new and used cars in the U.S., 1970-2021. . . . 13

Public Finance Utah state and local water revenues, FY 2020. . . . . . .

Major Utah state and local transportation user fees and taxes, FY 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Statewide school property tax (basic levy) revenue in Utah, 1930-2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Property tax base per student and tax rates in Utah, FY20. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Year-over-year change in Utah state and local tax revenues per capita. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Federal debt as percentage of GDP, 1929–2020 . . . . .

Utah Economy Consumer confidence, Utah and U.S. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Change in U.S. and Utah employment. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

U.S. wage growth by age. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Change in the expansion and relocation projects pipeline for EDCUtah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Top rural economic development impact priorities and strategies ranked . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Construction employment v. employees/ $1 billion of construction activity in Utah, 2001-2021. . . . . . .

Community Foundation of Utah’s annual giving to nonprofits, 2017-2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Percent of U.S. labor force who aren’t in the labor force and don’t want a job, 3-month moving average. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Real Estate and Construction Utah home sales, 2000–2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Year-Over Quarterly Percent Change in Utah’s Housing Price Index, 1Q 1977–2Q 2021. . . . . . . . . . . 31 Percent change in asking rent in top 15 metro areas, 2020–2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Share of mortgages that are delinquint . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Permitted commercial construction value in Utah, 2000-2021e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Cumulative annual increase in Utah's housing shortage. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Year-over quarterly increase in housing price index, second quarter 2020–2021. . . . . . . . . . . 36 Share of Utah households with housing costs greater than 30% of household income, 2013–2017. . . . . . . 37

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14 15 16 17 18 19 21

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Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

24 25 26 27 28 29

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

Share of Utah households priced out of the median priced home, 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 Median days on market in Utah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Travel and Tourism Utah leisure and hospitality taxable sales compared with 2019 baseline. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Utah visitor spending by visitor type, 2019 v. 2020. . . . 41 Change in hotel & restaurant spending and jobs in Utah compared with 2019 baseline. . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Utah skier days . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Percent change in deplaned passegers at SLC International Airport compared with 2019 baseline. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Percent change in Utah park visits compared with 2019 baseline. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Percent change in transient room tax revenue by county, 2019–2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 Energy and Environment New sales of EV / hybrids in passenger car / light truck class. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

West Texas Intermediate crude oil price per barrel, actual and forecasted . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Utah electricity generation by fuel source, 2020. . . . .

Utah natural gas consumption, 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

47 48 49 50

Health Utah COVID-19 hospitalization rate per 1,000 cases by race and ethnicity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 COVID-19 cases per 1,000,000 population by state. . . . 52 Share of population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine by state. . . . . . . . . . . 53 Age-adjusted unvaccinated and vaccinated incidence rates in Utahns eligible for the COVID-19 vaccine. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Vaccination timelines compared to COVID-19. . . . . . . 55 Utah life expectancy at birth by gender, 1980–2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Share of adult population that delayed getting medical care because of COVID-19 pandemic, 2020–2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Share of Utah middle and high school students with select mental health needs, 2015–2021. . . . . . 58 Utah health care workforce by sex, 2015–2019. . . . . . 59 Utah family caregiving statistics, 2019. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 Education RISE standardized test performance level change. . . 61 Primary learning models in 2020-2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 Utah student outcomes by race/ethnicity, 2021. . . . . 63 Share of Utah adults with a bachelor's degree or higher by age, 2015–2019. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 Utah poverty rate by educational attainment, 2019. . . 65

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Contents Utah median annual income by educational attainment, 2019 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 Share of children with family income above their parents' family income, by child's education level. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 Share of Utah teachers returning to education, 2012–2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 Demographics Utah April 1, 2020 resident population. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Utah components of change, 1975-2021. . . . . . . . . . . .

Births in Utah and the U.S., 1940–2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Utah’s COVID-19 cumulative per-capita death rate. .

Utah Population Pyramid: 2020 and 2060. . . . . . . . . . .

Absolute population change in Utah counties, 2010–2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Share of Utah population growth by race and Hispanic or Latino origin, 2010–2020. . . . . . . . . . . . .

Utah in-migrant place of birth, 2014-2018 . . . . . . . . . .

County share of state population growth, 2020-2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77

Utah Informed The whole point. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78

Editor: Jennifer Robinson

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Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

Words and phrases to know in 2022 Amenity migration - The movement of people to perceived desirable regions, usually for non economic reasons, such as a physical or cultural environment that is seen as more beautiful, tranquil, or inspirational than their current, usually urban environment. Utah’s growth could be attributed to an amenity migration but with such a strong economy, families aren’t only moving here for the mountains.

Be 22% better – To increase the good qualities of; make better; improve. In honor of University of Utah football players, Aaron Lowe and Ty Jordan, we should all seek to be 22% better.

Cryptocurrency – This is a collection of binary data that is designed to be used as means of exchange. Bitcoin was the first widely used cryptocurrency, but since, there have been many different kinds created.

Digital wanderer -A person who earns a living working online in various locations of their choosing rather than a fixed business or residential location. Jessie, our CTO and the office’s digital wanderer, is off mountain biking in Moab so this meeting will have to be on Zoom.

Endemic - Persisting in a population or region, generally having settled to a relatively constant rate of occurrence. The coronavirus that causes COVID-19 may never disappear, but could become endemic like HIV. Fiscal space – The extra room in a government´s budget that can be used for discretionary purposes without risking its financial position.

The state collected $400 million more than expected in sales tax revenue, growing its fiscal space for future fiscal years.

Ghosted – Someone has been ghosted when another person abruptly cuts off contact with them without giving that person any warning or explanation for doing so. I was planning on spending Halloween with my girlfriend but she ghosted me and I haven’t heard from her since.

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Mutuals – When two people follow and interact regularly with each other on social media are considered mutuals. My mom joined Facebook and we are now mutuals.

Non-fungible Token (NFT) – This is a noninterchangeable unit of data that is stored on a digital ledger. Andy will auction off the horror anthology as a non-fungible token, with the owner gaining the rights to exhibit, distribute and stream the movie.

Nadir – The lowest point of in the fortunes of a person or organization.

He insisted that an international nadir had been reached, and that performances must improve immediately.

Omicron – A new variant of SARS-COV-2 first discovered in South Africa. Is Omicron a variant of COVID or a new Utah County startup?

Post-COVID conditions – A wide range of new, returning, or ongoing health problems people can experience four or more weeks after first being infected with the virus that cause COVID-19. It has been months but I am still experiencing post-COVID conditions.

Short squeeze – A situation in which too many short sellers are trying to buy back the same shares so that their price rises suddenly instead of falling. The stock has been rallying sharply in recent weeks, leading to a flurry of buying, resulting in what some analysts have called a short squeeze.

Wuhan tipping point - The pandemic has soured relations between the world’s two great powers. Expect heightened tensions in 2022 regarding Taiwan, the South China Sea, and human rights that are reflective of the Wuhan tipping point.

Zoom town - A community that experiences a significant population increase as remote work becomes more popular, especially in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The name, "zoomtown", is a play on "boomtown" and the name of the web conferencing tool, Zoom.

Current Affairs

5

Top Google searches in the United States, 2021 Searches

People

How to help others

1. NBA 2. DMX 3. Gabby Petito 4. Kyle Rittenhouse 5. Brian Laundrie 6. Mega Millions 7. AMC Stock 8. Stimulus Check 9. Georgia Senate Race 10. Squid Game

1. Kyle Rittenhouse 2. Tiger Woods 3. Alec Baldwin 4. Travis Scott 5. Simone Biles 6. Derek Chauvin 7. Morgan Wallen 8. Henry Ruggs III 9. Pete Davidson 10. Shailene Woodley

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

News

__or__

1. Mega Millions 2. AMC Stock 3. Stimulus Check 4. Georgia Senate Race 5. GME 6. Dogecoin 7. Hurricane Ida 8. Kyle Rittenhouse Verdict 9. Afghanistan 10. Ethereum Price

1. Effect or affect 2. Barbie, Bratz or Fairy 3. Allergies or COVID 4. Bones or no bones 5. Bougie or boujee 6. Pfizer or Moderna 7. Sinus infection or COVID 8. Choose Bidoof or Bidoof 9. Cold or COVID 10. Capitol or capital

How to help Afghan refugees How to help Texas How to help India COVID How to help toddler with cough How to help foster kids How to help a family member with depression 7. How to help orphans 8. How to help your teen make friends 9. How to help teenagers with depression 10. How to help a baby with gas

Source: Google Trends

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Current Affairs

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

“ humanity "At

we

the end of the day

will

who we

cared

and who we and

be measured by our

,

for and

brought in,

”

not those we left behind.

- President Taylor Randall, University of Utah

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Current Affairs

7

Discoveries in 2021 n Tonal (high-tech training) – Instead of using regular resistance, this new workout machine uses electromagnetic resistance and machine learning to create personalized workouts n COVID-19 take home testing kit – Abbott BinaxNOW unveiled their own antigen self-test for COVID-19. This test has helped millions of people get fast responses to know if they have COVID-19. n Recycled LEGO bricks – Made out of recycled plastic from water bottles, LEGO is growing towards their goals of sustainability through new technology. n Light found behind a black hole – Stanford astrophysicist Dan Wilkins made the very first observation of light behind a black hole, thus verifying Einstein’s Theory of General Relativity.

8

Current Affairs

n Self-driving delivery cars – Being tested in Hoston, Nuro and Domino’s Pizza partnered to deliver pizzas to paying customers all through an automated process. The automated car drives to curbside of the customer’s house and through a pin number, a customer can open the vehicle and collect their pizza. n Ray-Ban Smart Glasses – Glasses with the ability to take pictures, change songs and answer phone calls all through a pair of glasses. n APPLE Airtag – Apple unveiled a device that fits anywhere and can be tracked from a phone. No more lost items! n OLED Rollable TV – For just $100,000, LG released the first tv that has its screen roll down into its own sound system. At 65’’, this screen is OLED with one of the thinnest screens around.

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

Fastest growing state

Decadal Population Growth Population growth, 2010-2020

Percent Change, 2010-2020

Source: 2020 Apportionment Data, U.S. Censu

Source: 2020 Apportionment Data, US Cesnsus Bureau

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Current Affairs

9

Utah's Great Resignation Share of employees quitting their job in September of each year, 2001–2021 4.5% 3.9%

4.0% 3.5%

3.1% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

Utah

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

U.S.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

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Current Affairs

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

The pandemic era of big government Federal fiscal response to recent recessions as percent of GDP

Dot-com Bust

0.4%

(2001)

Financial System Collapse

Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 1.1%

ARRA 5.8%

(2008 & 2009)

Wave 1 (CARES, PPPHCEA, FFCRA) 11.5%

Pandemic (2020 & 2021)

0%

5%

Wave 2 (Response and Relief) 4.2%

10% 15% Federal Fiscal Response as % of GDP

Wave 3 (ARPA) 8.9%

20%

25%

Source: Congressional Budget Office and National Bureau of Economic Research

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Current Affairs

11

The shrinking inland sea Great Salt Lake water level, 2000-2021 Surface elevation 4,204.00

Water Level (Surface Elevation in Feet above Sea Level)

4,202.00 4,200.00 4,198.00 4,196.00 4,194.00 4,192.00 4,190.00 4,188.00

Jun-00 Jan-01 Aug-01 Mar-02 Oct-02 May-03 Dec-03 Jul-04 Feb-05 Sep-05 Apr-06 Nov-06 Jun-07 Jan-08 Aug-08 Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12 Sep-12 Apr-13 Nov-13 Jun-14 Jan-15 Aug-15 Mar-16 Oct-16 May-17 Dec-17 Jul-18 Feb-19 Sep-19 Apr-20 Nov-20 Jun-21

4,186.00

Source: US Geological Survey

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Current Affairs

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

Cash for cars CPI for new and used cars in the U.S., 1970-2021 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20

CPI for New Cars

2020

2015

2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

1970

0

CPI for Used Cars

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Current Affairs

13

COVID-19 consumers Consumer confidence, Utah and U.S.

80.4 87.2 81.8 89.5 76.9 89.2 80.7 89.4 79.0 93.0 76.8 96.4 84.9 96.0 88.3 93.2 82.9 93.6 85.5 87.3 81.2 80.9 70.3 83.0 72.8 81.5 71.7 76.9 67.4

74.1

72.5

78.1

72.3

80

71.8

Consumer Confidence

89.1

100

101.0

120

60

40

20

0 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 2020 2021 Utah

U.S.

Pre-pandemic U.S. confidence level

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute and University of Michigan

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Utah Economy

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

The perilous pandemic recession Change in U.S. and Utah employment January 2000 to November 2021 15.0%

10.0% Nov-21, 4.9% Nov-21, 4.1% 5.0%

0.0%

-5.0%

-10.0%

Utah

United States

Oct-21

Jan-21

Jul-19

Apr-20

Oct-18

Jan-18

Apr-17

Jul-16

Jan-15

Oct-15

Jul-13

Apr-14

Oct-12

Jan-12

Apr-11

Jul-10

Jan-09

Oct-09

Apr-08

Jul-07

Oct-06

Jan-06

Apr-05

Jul-04

Jan-03

Oct-03

Apr-02

Jul-01

Oct-00

Jan-00

-15.0%

Recession

Note: Change in Nonfarm Employment Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Utah Economy

15

Gen Z wages on the rise U.S. wage growth by age January 2000 to November 2021 12.0% Nov-21, 10.1% 10.0%

8.0%

6.0%

Nov-21, 3.8% 4.0% Nov-21, 2.2% 2.0%

16-24

25-54

55+

Jan-21

Jan-20

Jan-19

Jan-18

Jan-17

Jan-16

Jan-15

Jan-14

Jan-13

Jan-12

Jan-11

Jan-10

Jan-09

Jan-08

Jan-07

Jan-06

Jan-05

Jan-04

Jan-03

Jan-02

Jan-01

Jan-00

0.0%

Recession

Source: Current Population Survey, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Calculations.

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Utah Economy

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

Re-shoring the supply chain Change in the expansion and relocation projects pipeline for EDCUtah 2018–2020 v. 2020-2021 33%

Software & IT

21% 24%

Manufacturing & Distribution

39% 11%

Financial Services & FinTech

9% 7%

Outdoor Products & Recreation

4% 7%

Other

10% 7%

Life Sciences Aerospace & Defense Headquarters & Shared Services

9% 6% 3%

2018 to 2020 5% 6%

2020 to 2021

Source: Economic Development Corporation of Utah

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Utah Economy

17

Rural economic development priorities and strategies

1

Top 5 rural economic development impact priorities ranked

Infrastructure investment

1

Increase economic diversity

5

Attract new employers

2

Workforce development

3

Economic diversity

4

Affordable housing

Top 8 rural economic development strategies ranked

2

Local business expansion and retention

6

Targeted industry development

3

Infrastructure investment

7

Increase tourism

5

Higher wages

4

Support entrepreneurism

8

Recruit remote workers

In a survey of rural counties and associations of governments in Utah, respondents were asked to rank their impact priorities and strategies for economic development. Responses produced a clear pattern targeting investments in growth infrastructure and support for local business owners and entrepreneurs. Differences between the two sets of responses raise questions about priorities and possibilities in the short- and long-term.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

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Utah Economy

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

Construction productivity and jobs at record levels Construction employment v. employees per $1 billion of construction activity in Utah, 2001-2021 25,000

140,000

120,000

100,000 15,000

80,000

60,000

10,000

40,000

Employees / $1B of Construction Value

Total Consturction Employment

20,000

5,000 20,000

Construction Jobs

*2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

0 2001

0

Workers per $1 Billion of Construction Value

* Estimate Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Utah Economy

19

“

Instead of protesting at a healthcare leader’s personal residence, consider

taking some time to volunteer at the local food bank.

Instead

of posting on

Facebook,

check on your neighbor. Instead

walk across the street to

of listening to another talking

(screaming)

head on cable news, try

listening

to a

new friend who looks or thinks a little differently than you.

- Gov. Spencer Cox, 2021 State of the State Address

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Utah Economy

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

”

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

Meeting the need Community Foundation of Utah’s annual giving to nonprofits, 2017-2021 $80

$70

$72.3

$60

Millions

$50

$40

$30

$20

$25.6 $12.6

$10

$-

2017

$10.6

$10.4

2018

2019

2020

2021

Source: Community Foundation of Utah

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Utah Economy

21

“

Economies

ways,

are, in many

perpetually evolving;

adapting to new conditions and moving

from one steady state to another.

As

these

transitions occur, the path forward is often hazy. we can see the world shifting around us, but we’re

not completely sure where

we’ll end up... our job is to

We

As

monetary policymakers,

navigate this uncertainty.

need to

anticipate

the

changes before us and understand

”

their implications.

-Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

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Utah Economy

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

Boomers retire early Percent of U.S. labor force who aren’t in the labor force and don’t want a job, 3-month moving average 45

61

40 60

35

30 59 25

20

58

15

57

10 2015

2016

2017 Younger than 25 (L)

2018 25 to 54 (L)

2019

2020

2021

55 and older (R)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody’s Analytics

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Utah Economy

23

H20: Pay for what you use?

Utah state and local water revenues, FY 2020 ($ in millions)

$674 $242 Monthly Flat Base Rate

$388

$111 Impact & Connection Fees

$87 Other Funding Sources

$388

$140

Monthly Water Usage Charge

Local Property Taxes

$94 State Taxes and Fees

Not Directly Tied to Level of Use

Directly Tied to Level of Use

Note: Does not include wholesale water sales to avoid double-counting revenues Source: Office of the State Auditor, Division of Water Rights, and Governor's Office of Planning and Budget

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Public Finance

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

Transportation: Pay for what you use?

Major Utah state and local transportation user fees and taxes, FY 2020 ($ in millions)

$1,891 $165

State Registration Fees

$81 State

Other Fees

$16 Local

Other Fees

$207

Local Registration Fees

$192

Local General Fund Revenues

$6 State General Fund Revenues

$574

Local Transportation Sales Taxes

$553

State Fares and Tolls

$650

Earmarked State Sales Taxes

Not Directly Tied to Level of Use

$2

$515

Fuel User Fees (Excise Tax)

$36

Local Fares and Tolls

Directly Tied to Level of Use

Source: Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst, Office of the State Auditor, and Utah State Tax Commission DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Public Finance

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Utah school basic levy now above Great Depression level Statewide school property tax (basic levy) revenue in Utah, 1930-2020 Minimum School Program created, 1947

State-imposed school levy eliminated in1952 and 1954

$1,800

State-imposed school levy eliminated, 1973

Basic levy cut and residential exemption expanded, 1995 and 1996

Increased emphasis on statewide property tax equalization begins, 2015 $600

$1,600 $500

$1,200

$400

$1,000 $300 $800

Great Depression

$600

$200

Nominal Revenue (Millions)

Real Revenue per Pupil

$1,400

$400 $100 $200 $0 2020

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1960

1950

1940

1930

$0

Real Locally-Imposed Statewide Property Tax (Basic Levy) Revenue per Pupil Real State-Imposed Statewide Property Tax (Basic Levy) Revenue per Pupil Nominal Combined State and Local Statewide Property Tax (Basic Levy) Revenue

Source: Superintendent Reports, Utah Foundation

26

Public Finance

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

Unequal property taxes Property tax base per student and tax rates in Utah, FY20 4,000,000

0.009

3,500,000

0.008 0.007 0.006

2,500,000 0.005 2,000,000 0.004

Tax Rate

Property Tax Base per Student

3,000,000

1,500,000 0.003 1,000,000

0.002

500,000

0.001

0 Park City Rich Daggett N. Summit S. Summit Grand Salt Lake Kane Emery Wasatch Beaver Wayne Millard Garfield Canyons Murray Uintah Washington Logan Duchesne Piute Carbon Granite Iron Ogden Sevier Jordan Provo Juab Box Elder Morgan Weber Alpine Davis N. Sanpete Tintic Nebo Cache Tooele San Juan S. Sanpete

0

Base per Student

Discretionary Rates

Note: Discretionary rates include: capital, voted, board, charter, and GO bond payments Source: Utah State Board of Education and Utah State Tax Commission

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Public Finance

27

Revenue bubble?

Year-over change in major Utah state and local tax revenues per capita 60%

50%

40%

30%

Sales Tax Rate Increase

Pandemic and Due Date Timing Shift

20%

10%

0%

-10% Statewide School Property Tax Cut -20%

1980

Tax Cuts and Great Recession

Tax Cuts and Dot-com Recession

1990

2000 Property Tax

Sales Tax

2010

2020

Income Tax

Source: Utah Tax Commission

28

Public Finance

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

When does the music stop?

Federal debt as percentage of GDP, 1929–2020 160%

140%

120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

2019

2016

2013

2010

2007

2004

2001

1998

1995

1992

1989

1986

1983

1980

1977

1974

1971

1968

1965

1962

1959

1956

1953

1950

1947

1944

1941

1938

1935

1932

1929

0%

Debt to GDP Ratio

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Public Finance

29

Home sweet home Utah home sales, 2000–2021

60,000

50,000

# of Sold Homes

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

*2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

0

* Estimate Source: UtahRealEstate.com

30

Real Estate and Construction

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

A long housing-price appreciation cycle Year-Over Quarterly Percent Change in Utah’s Housing Price Index, 1Q 1977–2Q 2021 (single-family homes) 35.0% 30.0%

28.3%

25.0% 20.1%

20.0%

18.3%

17.2%

15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0%

2020

2019

2017

2015

2013

2012

2010

2006

2005

2003

2001

1999

1998

1996

1994

1992

1991

1989

1987

1985

1984

1982

1980

1978

1977

2008

-12.1%

-15.0%

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency Housing Price Index

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Real Estate and Construction

31

Salt Lake City renter woes Percent change in asking rent in top 15 metro areas, 2020–2021

Rank

Metro Area

Percent Change in Rent (‘20-’21)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Palm Beach, FL. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31.2% Orlando, FL. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.7% Tampa, FL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24.2% Las Vegas, NV. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.2% Phoenix, AZ. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21.8% Ft. Lauderdale, FL. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.5% Jacksonville, FL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.9% Austin, TX. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.2% Raleigh, NC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.7% Atlanta, GA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.3% Durham, NC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.0% Salt Lake City, UT. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.2% Charlotte, NC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.2% Orange Co, CA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.1% Miami, FL. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.9%

Source: CoStar

32

Real Estate and Construction

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

The foreclosure crash that never came Share of mortgages that are delinquent 2010Q1-2021Q3 10% 9%

% of Delinquent Mortgages

8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1%

Utah

2021Q3

2021Q1

2020Q3

2020Q1

2019Q3

2019Q1

2018Q3

2018Q1

2017Q3

2017Q1

2016Q3

2016Q1

2015Q3

2015Q1

2014Q3

2014Q1

2013Q3

2013Q1

2012Q3

2012Q1

2011Q3

2011Q1

2010Q3

2010Q1

0%

US

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association National Delinquency Survey

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Real Estate and Construction

33

Thank you construction workers Permitted commercial construction value in Utah, 2000-2021

$3.00 $2.70

Permitted Construciton Value ($Billions)

$2.50

$2.00

$1.50

$1.00

$0.50

Office

Retail

Industrial

*2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

$0.00

Total

* Estimate Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

34

Real Estate and Construction

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

Utah’s housing shortage documented Cumulative annual increase in Utah's housing shortage

24,426 20,064

24,151

2017

2018

24,312

2011

27,610 24,461

9,085

2010

24,245 23,139

9,079

10,000

11,919

15,000

17,294

20,000

18,810 20,210

15,009 17,631

20,998

22,615

25,000

24,460

30,000

23,002 26,000

31,797

35,000

2019

2020

5,000

0

2012

2013

2014

Increase in Housing Units

2015

2016

Increase in Households

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Real Estate and Construction

35

A least we’re not first!

Year-over quarterly increase in housing price index, second quarter 2020–2021

OR 20.4%

ND 8.7%

MT 23.7%

WA 21.9% ID 37.1% NV 19.9%

WY 13.6%

UT 28.3%

CO 20.1%

CA 20.2% AZ 23.9%

NM 14.4%

SD 14.9% NE 15.1% KS 16.3%

OK 12.1% TX 16.6%

AK 8.2%

HI 14.0%

MN 14.9%

ME 22.4%

WI 16.0% MI 17.3%

IA 11.5%

NY 16.5%

PA IL OH IN 16.4% 12.9% 15.1% 16.3% WV MO KY 12.1%VA 16.6% 15.6% 16.2% TN NC AR 19.8% 18.3% SC 14.7% VT 23.3% MS 16.8% GA NH 21.7% 11.4% AL 15.4% 16.7% MA 18.5% LA CT 20.1% 9.6% RI 23.7% NJ 19.5% FL DE 15.5% 18.9% DC 15.7% +25% MD 14.9% 20% - 25% 10% - 20% <10%

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Housing Price Index

36

Real Estate and Construction

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

How heavy is the burden?

Share of Utah households with housing costs greater than 30% of household income, 2013–2017

19.5%

Total White alone, non-Hispanic

42.5%

18.6%

40.0%

Black alone, non-Hispanic

29.1%

Asian alone, non-Hispanic

57.9%

20.7%

American Indian alone, non-Hispanic

44.2%

23.4%

Pacific Islander alone, non-Hispanic

40.4%

18.4%

44.1% 27.9%

Hispanic, any race Other (multiple races, non-Hispanic)

50.9%

26.9% 0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

45.0%

30.0%

40.0%

Owners

Renters

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Source: Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS), HUD, 2013-2017.

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Real Estate and Construction

37

Priced out Share of Utah households priced out of the median priced home, 2020 90% 80%

Share of Utah households

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%

$700K

$675K

$650K

$625K

$600K

$575K

$550K

$525K

$500K

$475K

$450K

$425K

$400K

$375K

$350K

$325K

$300K

0%

Median home price Can Afford

Priced Out

Note: Assumes 30% debt-to-income, PMI, annual avg. 30-yr mortgage rate, and property taxes.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau 2019 1-Year American Community Survey data and home sales data provided by UtahRealEstate.com

38

Real Estate and Construction

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

No time to think about it Median days on market in Utah January 2015 - September 2021 65 60 55 50

Median Days On Market

45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

0

Source: UtahRealEstate.com

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Real Estate and Construction

39

The tourism recovery commences Utah leisure and hospitality taxable sales compared with 2019 baseline

+16.7%

+20.9%

+20.7%

+1.7%

- 9.0% - 11.7%

- 3.3%

- 5.0%

- 12.8%

- 20.0% - 52.2%

-31.1%

$400

- 12.6%

+2.0%

$705.8

$600

$490.4

Millions

$800

$716.2

+8.5%

+26.5%

$1,000

+28. 3%

$1,200

$200

$0 Jan-20

Apr-20

Jul-20

Oct-20

2020-2021

Jan-21

Apr-21

Jul-21

Baseline (2019)

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Utah State Tax Commission data

40

Travel and Tourism

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

Wo sind die deutschen?

Utah visitor spending by visitor type, 2019 v. 2020

2.7% 9.8% 21.3% 20.2%

76.0%

70.0%

2019 Domestic Nonresident

2020 Domestic Resident

International

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Tourism Economics data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Travel and Tourism

41

Time to tip generously Change in hotel & restaurant spending and jobs in Utah compared with 2019 baseline 0.5

0.25

0

-0.25

-0.5 Q1 2020

Q2 2020

Q3 2020

Q4 2020 Spending

Q1 2021

Q2 2021

Q3 2021

Jobs

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Utah State Tax Commission and U.S. Bureau of Labors Statistics data

42

Travel and Tourism

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

It’s always ikonic and epic in Utah Utah skier days 2000/01 season – 2020/21 season 6

Utah Skier Days (Millions)

5

4

3

2

1

0 2000-2001

2004-2005

2008-2009

2012-2013

2016-2017

2020-2021

Source: Ski Utah

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Travel and Tourism

43

Come fly our friendly skies Percent change in deplaned passegers at SLC International Airport compared with 2019 baseline 40%

20%

0% -3.5% -20%

-40%

-60%

-57.4%

-80%

-100%

-120% 1/1/2020

4/1/2020

7/1/2020

10/1/2020

International

1/1/2021

4/1/2021

7/1/2021

Domestic

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Salt Lake City International Airport data

44

Travel and Tourism

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

Mightier than just the five Percent change in Utah park visits compared with 2019 baseline 150%

100%

50%

0%

-50%

-100%

-150% 01/2020

04/2020

07/2020 State Parks

10/2020

01/2021

04/2021

07/2021

National Parks

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of National Park Service and Utah State Park data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Travel and Tourism

45

Salt Palace on ice Percent change in transient room tax revenue by county, 2019–2020 Cache -17.8% Rich 36.4% Weber -16.4% Davis -34.1% Morgan 34.7% Daggett 16.3%

-22.0% Box Elder

-11.3% Tooele

-13.5% -47.8% Summit Salt Lake -8.0% 6.8% Wasatch Duchesne -28.6% Utah

13.6% Juab -8.5% Millard

-17.0% Carbon -3.5% Sanpete 1.0% Sevier

-1.5% Beaver 1.8% Iron -2.0% Washington

-33.3% Uintah

-31.4% Emery

-21.8% Grand

-18.1% Wayne

47.9% Piute -36.4% Garfield

-52.3% San Juan

-10.3% Kane

-53.0%

36.0%

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Utah State Tax Commission data.

46

Travel and Tourism

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

Utah embraces clean transportation New sales of EV / hybrids in passenger car / light truck class 2019 Q2 - 2021 Q2 10.0%

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

2Q 2019

3Q 2019

4Q 2019

1Q 2020

2Q 2020 US

3Q 2020

4Q 2020

1Q 2021

2Q 2021

Utah

Source: Cox Automotive Quarterly Light-Vehicle quarterly sales reports Utah State Tax Commission, New Motor Vehicle Sales

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Energy and Environment

47

Relief at the pump coming soon West Texas Intermediate crude oil price per barrel, actual and forecasted January 2016 - November 2022

85

75

65

55

45

35

25

Sep-22

May-22

Jan-22

Sep-21

May-21

Jan-21

Sep-20

May-20

Jan-20

Sep-19

May-19

Jan-19

Sep-18

May-18

Jan-18

Sep-17

May-17

Jan-17

Sep-16

May-16

Jan-16

15

Forecast

Source: Energy Information Administration, Moody’s Analytics, and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

48

Energy and Environment

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

Utah’s power mix Utah electricity generation by fuel source, 2020

Natural Gas, 25%

Solar, 8.12%

Renewable, 14% Hydro, 2.66%

Wind, 2.1% Coal, 61%

Geothermal, 0.9% Biomass, 0.2%

Source: US Energy Information Administration

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Energy and Environment

49

Natural gas users in Utah Utah natural gas consumption, 2020 80,000

70,000

Million Cubi Feet

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0 Residential

Commercial

Industrial

Electric Utilities

Source: Utah Geological Survey Consumption of Natural Gas in Utah

50

Energy and Environment

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

COVID-19 hospitalizations disproportionately impact Utah's minority populations Utah COVID-19 hospitalization rate per 1,000 cases by race and ethnicity December 3, 2021 Native Hawaiian/ Pacific Islander

90.4

American Indian/ Alaska Native

89.6

Black/African American

50.8

Two or more races

50.7

Hispanic or Latino (of any race)

45.8

Some other race

45.1

Asian

45.1 43.4

White 9.6

Unknown 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Number of Hospitalizations per 1,000 Cases

Note: Utah’s statewide average hospitalization rate as of December 3, 2021 was 43.4 per 1,000 cases.

Source: Utah Department of Health COVID-19 Surveillance.

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Health

51

Utah ranks high when it comes to COVID-19 cases…

COVID-19 cases per 1,000,000 population by state December 3, 2021 250,000

Utah: 184,647 200,000

150,000

100,000

0

ND AK TN WY SD UT RI MT KY SC AR MS AZ AL FL WI ID OK IA WV LA IN MN NE KS DE GA NM MI MO TX OH NV IL NC CO NJ NY PA MA CA NH CT VA WA MD DC OR ME VT HI

50,000

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation estimates based on Johns Hopkins University’s COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) and 2020 Population data from U.S. Census Bureau.

52

Health

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

…but we are about average when it comes to vaccine uptake.

Share of population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine by state December 3, 2021 100% 90% 80%

Utah: 64.9% 70%

National Average: 70.6%

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%

NH MA VT CT RI HI ME PA DC NJ CA NY MD NM VA DE WA FL CO OR NC MN IL WV SD NV KS WI UT AZ NE TX AK OK IA MI AR KY SC MO MT GA OH ND TN AL IN LA MS WY ID

0%

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation estimates based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, COVID-19 Vaccinations in the United States, and 2020 Population data from U.S. Census Bureau.

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Health

53

Unvaccinated Utahns more likely to experience severe complications Age-adjusted unvaccinated and vaccinated incidence rates in Utahns eligible for the COVID-19 vaccine December 3, 2021

Age-Adjusted Incidence Rate

26.1

4.7

3.9 0.6

Hospitalizations

Deaths Unvaccinated

Vaccinated

Note: Age-adjusted unvaccinated and vaccinated incidence rates in people eligible for the vaccine since February 1, 2021.

Source: Utah Department of Health COVID-19 Surveillance.

54

Health

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

Previous vaccine research allowed for rapid development of the COVID-19 vaccine Vaccination timelines compared to COVID-19

10

˜

Typical Timeline

˜4

Mumps

˜1 Year

Years

Years

COVID-19

Development of vaccines against Corona viruses have significantly improved within the past 10 years. As such, while the development timeline for the COVID-19 vaccine seems fast, the U.S. has been studying mRNA vaccines for much longer (mRNA vaccines have been studied in response to flu, Zika, rabies, and cytomegalovirus, CMV).

Vaccine timelines are dependent upon the number of volunteers for clinical trials.

Developmental research and clinical research take up a majority of the time for a typical timeline.

Source: The History of Vaccines: An Educational Resource by the College of Physicians of Philadelphia.

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Health

55

The sad reality of COVID-19 Utah life expectancy at birth by sex, 1980–2020 84 81.9

82

80.9

80

78.4 78 77.1

76 74 72 70 68

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

66

Males

Females

Source: Utah Death Certificate Database, Office of Vital Records and Statistics, Utah Department of Health.

56

Health

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

Slowly returning to normal?

Share of adult population that delayed getting medical care because of COVID-19 pandemic, 2020–2021 37% 35%

20% 18%

April 23 – May 5, 2020

March 3 – March 15, 2021 U.S.

Utah

Note: Total population 18 years and older. These data are experimental. Users should take caution using estimates based on subpopulations of the data— sample sizes may be small, and the standard errors may be large.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey, Week 1 and Week 26 (survey results are now collected and disseminated every two weeks).

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Health

57

Utah’s youth mental health needs worsened during the pandemic 24.6%

Share of Utah middle and high school students with select mental health needs, 2015–2021 26%

6%

7.0%

6.9%

6.7%

5.4%

8%

6.3%

10%

7.1%

13.3%

11.6%

10.6% 8.8%

12%

12.3%

17.5%

14%

12.5%

14.4%

16%

15.0%

18%

16.4%

18.0%

20%

16.0%

22%

19.3%

24%

4% 2% 0%

High mental health treatment needs

Severe depression

Suicide ideation 2015

2017

2019

Suicide plans

Suicide attempts

2021

Note: Survey responses are from students in grades 6, 8, 10, and 12.

Source: Student Health and Risk Prevention: Prevention Needs Assessment Survey. Utah Division of Substance Abuse and Mental Health.

58

Health

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

Utah's predominantly female health care workforce Utah health care workforce by sex, 2015–2019

Health Care Occupations 26.4%

73.6%

Other Occupations 44.3%

55.7%

All Workers 46.5%

53.5%

Female

Male

Note: Share of adult workers in occupation category. Health care occupation data cover wide range of health care occupations, such as practitioners, support staff, and management. American Community Survey uses binary sex categories. Error bars represent 90% confidence intervals around survey-based estimates.

Differences between groups with non-overlapping error bars are statistically significant.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau, 5-Year American Community Survey, Integrated Public Use Microdata Series.

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Health

59

Caring for Others Utah family caregiving statistics, 2019

Over 450,000 adults in Utah provide unpaid caregiving services to their family and friends.

About 35,000

of Utah’s caregivers provide more than 40 hours of caregiving a week and have been doing so for more than 60 months.

Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey.

60

Health

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

Unintended consequences from the pandemic Change in RISE standardized test performance in Utah 2018-2019 v. 2020-2021 Grade

Grade

Grade

Grade

Grade

Grade

Grade

Grade

ELA

ELA

ELA

ELA

Math

Math

Math

Math

5 6 7 8

0%

5 6 7 8

-10%

-17%

-20%

-19%

-25%

-27%

-30% -31% -40%

-33%

-39%

-50% -54% -60%

Note: These are estimates based on students who tested in 2020-2021 compared to a similar demographic group tested in 2018–2019.

Source: Utah State Board of Education and The National Center for the Improvement of Education Assessment, Inc.

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Education

61

Learning from anywhere Primary learning models in Utah, 2020-2021

In-Person, 31% Online, 2%

(325 schools)

Remote, 5% (50 schools)

(21 schools)

Hybrid, 62% (654 schools)

Note: An “Online School” is a school where students attended remotely even before the pandemic. “Remote” is a school that was in-person before the pandemic but was primarily remote learning during 2020–2021.

Source: Utah State Board of Education and The National Center for the Improvement of Education Assessment, Inc.

62

Education

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

How do we close the gaps?

Utah student outcomes by race/ethnicity, 2021 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Graduation Rate

English Language Arts Proficiency (Grades 3-8)

Mathematics Proficiency (Grades 3-8)

Science (Grades 4-8)

ACT (College-Ready in all 4 sections)

White

Asian

Hispanic/Latino

African American/Black

American Indian

Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander

Source: Utah State Board of Education and ACT

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Education

63

The education gender gap through the generations Share of Utah adults with a bachelor's degree or higher by age, 2015–2019 45.0% 40.3%

38.6%

40.0% 36.1% 35.0%

36.0%

31.8%

36.2%

35.8%

31.9%

30.2%

30.0% 24.8% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0%

4.1%

18-24

25-34

35-44

45-64 Male

65+

Population 25+

Female

Note: These are survey-based estimates subject to sample variation. Each estimate is shown with its 90% confidence interval.

This interval represents a range of population values that are plausible in light of information in the sample, with a 90% degree of confidence.

Reported values for groups with non-overlapping error bars are statistically different to the same degree of confidence.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 5-year Estimates

64

Education

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

A path out of poverty Utah poverty rate by educational attainment, 2019

6.7%

Overall

3.9%

Bachelor's Degree or Higher

6.5%

Some College or Associate Degree

8.4%

High School Diploma or Equivalent

16.0%

Less than High School Diploma

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Note: These are survey-based estimates subject to sample variation. Each estimate is shown with its 90% confidence interval.

This interval represents a range of population values that are plausible in light of information in the sample, with a 90% degree of confidence.

Reported values for groups with non-overlapping error bars are statistically different to the same degree of confidence.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 5-year Estimates

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Education

65

Education pays Utah median annual income by educational attainment, 2019

$41,679

Overall

$76,099

Graduate or Professional Degree $51,611

Bachelor's Degree

$37,247

Some College or Associate Degree

$34,667

High School Diploma or Equivalent

$28,028

Less than High School Diploma $0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

Note: These are survey-based estimates subject to sample variation. Each estimate is shown with its 90% confidence interval.

This interval represents a range of population values that are plausible in light of information in the sample, with a 90% degree of confidence.

Reported values for groups with non-overlapping error bars are statistically different to the same degree of confidence.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 5-year Estimates

66

Education

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

How to climb the ladder Share of U.S. children with family income above their parents' family income, by child's education level

Without a College Degree

63%

With a College Degree

0%

10%

20%

30%

74%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Note: Economic mobility between the parental generation of the 1960s and 1970s and their adult children Source: Brookings Institute

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

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67

Utah teachers persevere Share of Utah teachers returning to education, 2012–2021 100.0% 90.0%

91.1%

90.8%

89.8%

90.0%

90.1%

89.9%

90.7%

91.0%

91.1%

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

2018-19

2019-20

2020-21

80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0%

Source: Utah State Board of Education

68

Education

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

The April 1, 2020 resident population was:

Utah 3,271,616 United States 331,449,281

18.4

%

Utah was the fastest-growing state in the nation from 2010 to 2020, at 18.4%.

This represents an average growth of 1.7% per year.

65

%

Natural increase drove 65% of the state’s growth this decade; net migration accounted for 35%.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2020 Census Apportionment Data

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Demographics

69

Lowest natural increase since 1975 Utah components of change, 1975-2021 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 23,053

20,000

23,871

10,000 0 -10,000

Net Migration

Natural Increase

2021

2019

2017

2015

2013

2011

2009

2007

2005

2003

2001

1999

1997

1995

1993

1991

1989

1987

1985

1983

1981

1979

1977

1975

-20,000

Population Change

Source: Utah Population Committee and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

70

Demographics

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

The more-than decade long birth dearth Births in Utah and the U.S., 1940–2020 5.0 4.5

60.0

Utah Peak, 2008 Over 41,000

U.S. Peak, 1957 4.31 million

50.0

4.0

U.S. Peak, 2007 40.0 4.32 million

3.0

Utah Peak, 1980–1982 Over 41,000

2.5

30.0

2.0 20.0

1.5 1.0

Utah Births (thousands)

U.S. Births (millions)

3.5

10.0

0.5 0

U.S.

2020

2015

2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

1970

1965

1960

1955

1950

1945

0

Utah

Source: National Center for Health Statistics; Utah Department of Health

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Demographics

71

Utah’s COVID-19 cumulative per-capita death rate of 64.9 deaths per 100,000 is lower than the U.S. rate of 167.1.*

51.4

%

of Utah’s lower COVID-19 per-capita death rate can be attributed to the age, sex, and racial/ethnic composition of its population.*

*Compared to the national COVID-19 death rate from April 1, 2020–March 31, 2021

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

72

Demographics

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

As Utah grows, we also age Utah Population Pyramid: 2020 and 2060 100+ 96 92 88 84 80 76 72

Male - 2020 Male - 2060 Projection

Female - 2020 Female - 2060 Projection

68 64 60 56 52 48 44 40 36 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 0 50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Demographics

73

The urban sisters dominate Absolute population change in Utah counties, 2010–2020 Cache, 20,498 Rich, 246 Weber, 30,987 Davis, 56,200 Morgan, 2,826 Daggett, -124

Box Elder 7,691

Tooele 14,480

Summit 6,033

Salt Lake 155,583

Wasatch 11,258

Duchesne 989

Utah 142,835 Juab 1,540

Carbon -991 Sanpete 615

Millard 472

Sevier 720 Beaver 443

-1,151

Grand 444

Emery -1,151

Wayne -292

Piute -118

Iron 11,126

Washington 42,164

Uintah 3,032

Garfield -89

San Juan -228

Kane 542 155,583

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

74

Demographics

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

Utah’s becoming more diverse Share of Utah population growth by race and Hispanic or Latino origin, 2010–2020

48% White

52%

Other Populations

30%

51%

Hispanic or Latino

NH Some Other Race and Two or More Races

5%

NH Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific or Other Pacific Islander

9%

NH Asian

1%

NH American Indian or Alaska Native

4%

NH Black or African American

U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 and 2020 Redistricting Data (P.L. 940171) Summary Files

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Demographics

75

Over one-in-four movers to Utah were born here Utah in-migrant place of birth, 2014-2018

WA 2.9% OR 2.1%

NV 1.1% CA 13.2%

MT 0.9% ID 3.3%

WY 0.3%

MN 0.6%

SD 0.0%

CO 2.0%

NM 0.6%

KS 0.6% OK 0.5%

TX 3.1% AK 1.3%

WI 0.8%

MO 0.5% AR 0.4%

NY 1.4%

MI 1.0%

IA 0.4%

NE 0.8%

UT 26.2%

AZ 1.8%

ME 0.3%

ND 0.0%

OH 1.6%

IN IL 1.5% 0.7%

KY 0.6% TN 0.5% MS AL 0.1% 0.3%

PA 0.6% WV VA 0.0% 1.5% NC 0.6%

GA 0.6%

SC 0.6%

VT 0.0% NH 0.2% MA 0.8% CT 0.5% RI 0.0% NJ 0.9% DE 0.1% MD 1.2% DC 0.2%

LA 0.4% FL 1.5%

HI 1.3%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 5-Year American Community Survey, Integrated Public Use Microdata Series

76

Demographics

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

Over one-third of growth in Utah between 2020 and 2021 was in Utah County County share of state population growth, 2020-2021 33.0% Utah County

15.9% Salt Lake

12.5% Washington

7.7% Davis

Rest of State (4.8%) Beaver 0.1% Carbon 0.1% Daggett 0.0% Duschesne 0.2% Emery 0.1%

Garfield 0.0% Grand 0.1% Juab 0.4% Kane 0.4% Millard 0.3%

Morgan 0.6% Piute 0.1% Rich 0.1% San Juan 0.2% Sanpete 0.7%

Sevier 0.4% Summit 0.8% Uintah 0.5% Wayne 0.0%

6.0% Cache

2.3% 1.6% Box Elder Wasatch

6.1% Iron

5.1% Tooele

5.0% Weber

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Demographics

77

Probability of making informed decisions

TM

The whole point

Accurate data and information

78

Utah Informed

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2022

K E M C . G A R D N E R P O L I C Y I N S T I T U T E S TA F F A N D A D V I S O R S Leadership Team

Staff

Natalie Gochnour, Associate Dean and Director Jennifer Robinson, Associate Director Mallory Bateman, Director of Demographic Research Shelley Kruger, Accounting and Finance Manager Colleen Larson, Administrative Manager Dianne Meppen, Director of Survey Research Nicholas Thiriot, Communications Director James A. Wood, Ivory-Boyer Senior Fellow

Eric Albers, Research Associate Max Backlund, Senior Research Associate Max Becker, Research Associate Samantha Ball, Senior Research Associate Andrea Thomas Brandley, Research Associate Kara Ann Byrne, Senior Research Associate Mike Christensen, Scholar-in-Residence Phil Dean, Public Finance Senior Research Fellow John C. Downen, Deputy Director of Economic and Public Policy Research Dejan Eskic, Senior Research Fellow Emily Harris, Senior Demographer Michael T. Hogue, Senior Research Statistician Mike Hollingshaus, Senior Demographer Thomas Holst, Senior Energy Analyst Jennifer Leaver, Senior Tourism Analyst Levi Pace, Senior Research Economist Shannon Simonsen, Research Coordinator Joshua Spolsdoff, Senior Research Economist Paul Springer, Senior Graphic Designer Laura Summers, Senior Health Care Analyst Natalie Young, Research Analyst

Faculty Advisors Matt Burbank, College of Social and Behavioral Science Adam Meirowitz, David Eccles School of Business Elena Patel, David Eccles School of Business Nathan Seegert, David Eccles School of Business

Senior Advisors Jonathan Ball, Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst Silvia Castro, Suazo Business Center Gary Cornia, Marriott School of Business Wes Curtis, Community-at-Large Theresa Foxley, EDCUtah Dan Griffiths, Tanner LLC Emma Houston, University of Utah Beth Jarosz, Population Reference Bureau Darin Mellott, CBRE Pamela S. Perlich, University of Utah Chris Redgrave, Community-at-Large Wesley Smith, Western Governors University Juliette Tennert, Utah System of Higher Education

Partners in the Community

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Advisory Board

The following individuals and entities help support the research mission of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.

Conveners

Legacy Partners

Board

The Gardner Company Intermountain Healthcare Clark and Christine Ivory Foundation KSL and Deseret News Larry H. & Gail Miller Family Foundation Mountain America Credit Union Salt Lake City Corporation Salt Lake County University of Utah Health Utah Governor’s Office of Economic Opportunity WCF Insurance Zions Bank

Scott Anderson, Co-Chair Gail Miller, Co-Chair Doug Anderson Deborah Bayle Cynthia A. Berg Roger Boyer Wilford Clyde Sophia M. DiCaro Cameron Diehl Lisa Eccles Spencer P. Eccles

Executive Partners Mark and Karen Bouchard The Boyer Company Salt Lake Chamber

Sustaining Partners Clyde Companies Dominion Energy Staker Parson Materials and Construction

Michael O. Leavitt Mitt Romney

Christian Gardner Kem C. Gardner Kimberly Gardner Natalie Gochnour Brandy Grace Rachel Hayes Clark Ivory Mike S. Leavitt Derek Miller Ann Millner Sterling Nielsen Cristina Ortega Jason Perry Ray Pickup Gary B. Porter Taylor Randall

Jill Remington Love Brad Rencher Josh Romney Charles W. Sorenson James Lee Sorenson Vicki Varela Ex Officio (invited) Governor Spencer Cox Speaker Brad Wilson Senate President Stuart Adams Representative Brian King Senator Karen Mayne Mayor Jenny Wilson Mayor Erin Mendenhall

Salt Lake Chamber Board of Directors Gary Porter, Chair Donna Milavetz, Vice Chair Nathan Callister Wilford Clyde John Dahlstrom Natalie Gochnour Kay Hall Dan Hemmert

Gary Hoogeveen Clark Ivory Greg Johnson Fred Lampropoulos Derek Miller Sterling Nielsen Scott Parson Ray Pickup

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

I

Thomas S. Monson Center 411 E. South Temple Street Salt Lake City, UT 84111 801-585-5618 gardner.utah.edu

I

I

DAV I D E CC L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S UNIVERSITY OF UTAH

Gaby Poirier Nico Priskos Joel Raup Steve Starks Craig Wagstaff Linda Wardell