Strategies for a more positive South Africa

By Stephen de Stadler Managing Director Fine & Country Hermanus and Arabella

I recently had the distinct pleasure of attending a presentation by Chantell Ilbury, the renowned scenario strategist and co-author of a series of books, including The Mind of a Fox, which seek to enlighten us as to the way in which to understand scenario planning and use it for the benefit of future planning.

Within the working environment, scenario planning is used to provide flexible long-term planning solutions for businesses. It is a level of “what if” analysis, but the scenarios are real, albeit that they have different probabilities of outcome. When planning a day of relaxation, we all subconsciously use scenario planning in order to decide what we might do on any particular day.

Dad says, “Who wants to go to the beach on our day off tomorrow?” to which Mom might say, “But what if it rains?” and the daughter might say, “Well, then we can go to the movies.” If you live in the Western Cape and it is summer, the chances of rain are relatively small, therefore the strong likelihood is that the family will be going to the beach tomorrow, but if it rains, they will be going to the movies. True flexible short-term planning has resulted in two definitive outcomes, both achievable, but with varying probabilities.

Chantell Ilbury presented her strategic scenarios for South Africa based on a range of outcomes relating to social cohesion and the economic climate.

In its simplest form social cohesion refers to the way in which government interacts within the government structures, the interaction between political parties, and the interaction with business. This cohesion can be either strong or weak. The economic climate can be either positive or negative, or a range in between. A disclaimer needs insertion here, as what follows is purely my interpretation.

Few will argue that our government is showing high levels of social cohesion at the current time, but the indicators that this will improve over the medium to longer term are starting to show. The government does seem to be taking a stronger line against corruption, but our problem still remains that the culture of entitlement which leads to corruption is far too high. We are also entering a municipal election year, where in the past political posturing has led to slow-downs in positive actions by the government of the day.

The one positive effect of the Covid-19 pandemic, however, has been to bring us together as a nation in a fight against a common cause, and government has shown relatively strong and decisive leadership in this time. Against that background, in my opinion, social cohesion will improve over the medium to longer term.

On the economic front, it cannot be disputed that the economy is struggling. What is interesting is that we are seeing a high level of emerging entrepreneurship, and although a small part of the economy, any activity which places less reliance on government and the formal economy has to be positive. In addition, while business confidence is extremely low, there are signs of improvement. South Africans are extremely resilient, and this will drive the economy to growth in the medium to longer term.

So, what effect does this have on the property market in the Overberg region? In an environment of improved economic activity together with stronger social cohesion, and assuming we can ensure the steady and uninterrupted supply of water and electricity, South Africa may again become a lifestyle destination. The “swallows” will return, bringing with them the much-needed foreign investment.

But even if the economy grows at a slower rate, there will be more incentive to move to well-run municipalities, many of which exist in this region. There will always be an emphasis on security in South Africa, which will also bode well for the various security estates that have become more noticeable in the Western Cape over the last 10 to 15 years.

In closing, for me the most positive aspect of scenario planning is that it always gives you options and shows you that with a small change in only a few parameters, a totally different (and positive) future can be assured.

The views expressed above are those of the writer in his personal capacity and may not necessarily reflect the views of Fine & Country as a national and international brand.