2011 NCAA Tournament Preview

the chronicle

march 17, 2011

ncaa tournament preview

2 | THURSDAY, MARCH 17, 2011

ncaa tournament preview

ncaa tournament preview table of contents

4

Columnist Alex Fanaroff comes out of retirement yet again to give his version of how Kyrie Irving was “injured”

8

Andre Dawkins and Seth Curry have struggled at times from 3-point land, but could be peaking at the right moment for the Blue Devils

5

Ryan Kelly has gone from being a little-used freshman to a vital member on Duke. Will he be the Blue Devils’ X-factor in the tourney?

9

Columnist Tom Gieryn wants Duke fans to remember that the Blue Devils’ captains rescued the program from mid-decade mediocrity

6

Nolan Smith has worn many different hats in his four years at Duke.

His latest—the team’s leader—is his most important

1012

The full NCAA Tournament bracket, cases for the four No. 1 seeds, the case for the field—in short, everything you need to fill out your bracket

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ncaa tournament preview

THURSDAY, MARCH 17, 2011 | 3

THE ROAD TO

HOUSTON

DUKE

PITT

No. 1, WEST (30-4)

No.1,SOUTHEAST (27-5)

AP: 3, RPI: 4, Ken Pom: 2 RPI top-50 record: 8-2 Key player: Nolan Smith Best win: North Carolina, Mar. 3

AP: 4, RPI: 9, Ken Pom: 5 RPI top-50 record: 9-5 Key player: Ashton Gibbs Best win: Syracuse, Jan. 17

OHIO ST

No.1,SOUTHWEST (32-2)

AP: 2, RPI: 1, Ken Pom: 3 RPI top-50 record: 9-2 Key player: Marcus Morris Best win: Texas, Mar. 12

UNC

SDSU

No. 2, WEST (32-2)

No. 2, EAST (26-7) AP: 7, RPI: 6, Ken Pom: 13 RPI top-50 record: 2-5 Key player: Harrison Barnes Best win: Duke, Mar. 5

Breaking news, live blogs and predictions all during Duke’s run in the NCAA Tournament

KANSAS

No. 1, EAST (32-2)

AP: 1, RPI: 2, Ken Pom: 1 RPI top-50 record: 9-2 Key player: Jared Sullinger Best win: Purdue, Jan. 25

Stay updated with sports.chronicleblogs.com

AP: 6, RPI: 3, Ken Pom: 7 RPI top-50 record: 7-2 Key player: Kawhi Leonard Best win: BYU, Mar. 12

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ncaa tournament preview

The truth* about Duke’s season There were two options for this column: Either I could write a reasoned analysis of Duke’s chances to reach the Final Four, or I could write something totally outrageous. Before the Blue Devils dismantled North Carolina in the ACC tournament final, I was leaning toward a reasoned analysis of why you, the NCAA Tournament viewer, should listen to the computers (which love Duke again this year—although Alex not as much as they did last year) and not to know-nothing television commentators. (Actual quote from an ESPN analyst who will remain nameless, when discussing a potential Duke-Ohio State Final Four matchup, “I like [Ohio State]; they’re very solid. Duke is suspect at times, so I’m going with Ohio State.”)

Fanaroff

Digger Phelps’s opinions notwithstanding, the Blue Devils are something of a trendy pick to win the championship now, so my reasoned analysis would be trite. Therefore, without further ado, I present to you the true* inside story of this year’s season. *not true DURHAM (Dec. 2, 2010) — Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski and his assistants sat in the coach’s Cameron Indoor Stadium office in the wee hours after the Blue Devils handily took down then-No. 6 Michigan State. Coach K was not pleased.

“This season is not working out as planned!” Krzyzewski said.

His assistants were puzzled. The team was 7-0 and had yet to be really challenged—even against then-No. 4 Kansas State. There was talk of an undefeated season, and

most analysts felt Duke was head and shoulders above any of their competitors.

“We’re winning too much, too soon,” Coach K continued. “At this rate, I’ll break Bob Knight’s all-time Division I wins record in a 101-48 win over Hampton in an NCAA Tournament first round game—and then the rest of our inevitable march to the championship will be anti-climactic.”

With assistant coaches Steve Wojciechowski, Chris Collins and Nate James listening intently, Krzyzewski laid out his plan.

First, he said, they’d pretend that star point guard Kyrie Irving got injured. It would be a freak injury to a ridiculous body part, like his right big toe. This would shift the storyline around Duke away from Krzyzewski and onto Irving’s toe. “Duke students” (read: spies planted by Krzyzewski) would start the ridiculous and sublime website savekyriestoe.com (complete with matching Twitter account), punloving students could tweet things like “TOE NO!” and “stay op(toe)mistic,” Irving could flash his sartorial style on the sidelines (topsiders, cardigans and jeans, oh my!) and the coach could sprinkle Irving-flavored doom and gloom See fanaroff on page 15

lawson kurtz/Chronicle file photo

Alex Fanaroff writes (jokingly) that Coach K concocted a plan to fake Irving’s injury in order to make Duke’s season seem more interesting.

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ncaa tournament preview

breaking down duke

THURSDAY, MARCH 17, 2011 | 5

the x factor

No one ignoring improved Kelly now

by Scott Rich THE CHRONICLE

toni wei/Chronicle file photo

See kelly on page 16

Last year, Kelly was a little-used forward. This year, he was a starter for a long stretch of the season.

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As Ryan Kelly languished on the bench last season, many Duke fans forgot that he was actually the most decorated member of the Blue Devils’ 2010 recruiting class. After he played only 15 minutes during last year’s entire NCAA Tournament run, many fans simply forgot him.

But a year later, Kelly is finally blooming into the player Duke coaches foresaw.

What’s more, he likely will eclipse his playing time from the entire 2010 NCAA Tournament against Hampton alone Friday.

And now, opposing teams certainly can’t forget about him.

“I think it’s been a mentality change,” Kelly said following the ACC tournament.

“I needed to become... a guy that’s reliable for our team—that every play I can be depended on.”

Many of Kelly’s freshman struggles, however, stemmed more from his body than his mind. Listed at only 205 pounds by Scout.com as a recruit, the Blue Devils knew Kelly would have to improve both his size and strength before he could be a key cog on the team. A serious illness the summer before his Duke debut, though, derailed his conditioning plan—the already svelte Kelly lost weight due to the illness and wasn’t able to develop his body the way the coaching staff anticipated.

“Last year Ryan just wasn’t physically ready to play this level of basketball,” head

coach Mike Krzyzewski said. “He could think it, but it just wasn’t going to happen.

That happens with guys, there’s nothing wrong with that. You run your own race.”

As such, Kelly’s ability to bang in the post with the physical frontcourt players of the ACC was seriously hampered, and his playing time suffered—after the beginning of conference season, Kelly never played more than 10 minutes in a game.

But this summer the forward finally was able to gain the strength necessary to be an ACC big man, and Kelly was listed at a bulkier 235 pounds entering this season. That development has made all the difference.

“My freshman year, I didn’t play as much as obviously I would have liked, but that’s the way it goes. I worked a lot over the summer to strengthen my body and be prepared to take the rigors of a full season,” Kelly said.

“I worked a lot with our strength and conditioning coach Will Stevens over the summer.

Some of that had to come naturally, too. I’m a younger sophomore, I’m still 19, so my body had to take time to mature.”

The change in Kelly’s performance has been nothing short of astonishing to those fans who quickly wrote him off as a bust. A starter for extended portions of the season, Kelly has averaged more than 20 minutes a game along with 6.7 points, 3.8 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per contest. Midway through the

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6 | THURSDAY, MARCH 17, 2011

ncaa tournament preview

THE BEST PLAYER IN THE NATION? Nolan Smith has reinvented himself again this year, and Duke fans like the results

by Chris Cusack THE CHRONICLE

Late in Duke’s ACC quarterfinal matchup, Nolan Smith hopped across the court, grimacing in pain before finally collapsing on the floor beside press row. As he fell, so did the hopes of Blue Devil fans who had pinned all of their postseason aspirations on the charismatic senior.

But Smith bounced back the next day, playing 39 minutes of flawless basketball to lead Duke to a win over Virginia Tech. That resilience has become a trademark of the senior’s four years as a Blue Devil—a career defined by the

constant reinventions of his game, unheard of in the modern one-and-done era of college basketball.

The latest iteration of his game may be his most important: that of Duke’s leader and soul of the 2010-11 team.

“Lead by example and lead with my words,” Smith said.

“If they see me playing hard, leaving it on the court they’re gonna do the same thing. That’s what Kyle and I have been trying to do all year.”

Smith’s progression to team captain and National Player of the Year candidate started four years ago, when the then-freshman played a minor role off the

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bench while head coach Mike Krzyzewski and staff tried to figure out which perimeter position he fit best. He drove Cameron Crazies wild with his ability to create highlights on the offensive end, but frustrated them with lapses in judgement that led to plays fit for ESPN’s Not Top-10.

As the eighth-ranked shooting guard in his class, and a graduate of the basketball powerhouse Oak Hill Academy, Smith was expected to contribute as soon as he stepped on campus. He spent his first two years, though, stuck behind a collection of talented perimeter players: DeMarcus Nelson at first, then Gerald Henderson, Greg Paulus and Jon Scheyer. Smith played limited and sporadic minutes, struggling to carve out a consistent role on the floor.

“Freshman year, you can lose some [confidence] as the year goes on, not knowing what’s going on, second-guessing yourself,” Smith said following his first year as a Blue Devil.

After missing much of the end of his sophomore season recovering from a concussion, and losing his mentor, former assistant Johnny Dawkins, Smith came close to transferring after his sophomore campaign. But Dawkins convinced him to stay in Durham, almost prophetically predicting Smith’s breakout junior year.

“When Coach Dawkins left, he told me to trust the coaches and everything was going to work out,” Smith said.

“I knew it was just a matter of time that my abilities were going to show up.”

And show up they did. From the start of the season, Smith displayed a newfound confidence that would define the second half of his career.

With both teams tied at 31 during the annual BlueWhite game, Smith was fouled on a putback attempt with less than a second remaining. Instead of shooting in front of a quieted arena, the junior implored the fans to get loud, showing a type of emotion on the court that he had previously never shown.

“I can be in that situation against another team,” Smith said after the game. “I wanted it to be loud and not quiet.”

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ncaa tournament preview

THURSDAY, MARCH 17, 2011 | 7

Behind this self-belief, Smith’s per game scoring average doubled while his assist-to-turnover ratio rose. He scored in single digits only twice in the entire season while consistently playing off the ball, his most comfortable position.

As a senior, his place remained largely the same, though his scoring opportunities came off passes from Kyrie Irving instead of Scheyer. Irving’s toe injury, though, forced Smith back into the fluctuating position he had struggled to fill as an underclassman. But this time, the senior responded.

“I have to step up, run the show, lead these guys even more than I’ve been trying to do,” Smith said following a win over Bradley—the team’s first game without Irving. “I have to be more of a facilitator for these guys and get them involved and at the same time,

stay effective.”

Despite experimenting with different roles on the perimeter—exclusively playing as the point guard, splitting point duties with Seth Curry or deferring the ballhandling duties to Tyler Thornton— Smith nearly became the first player in ACC history to lead the league in both points and assists. He eventually fell just short, leading the ACC in points with 21.3 per game but finishing second in assists, 0.6 per game short of Kendall Marshall’s 5.8.

While embracing his new, e v e r- c h a n g i n g position, Smith has added a variety of weapons to his rapidlyexpanding arsenal. According to Krzyzewski, though, none has been more important than the senior’s recent commitment to pressure defense.

Smith, the MARGIE TRUWIT/Chronicle file photo

best Blue Devil perimeter defender since Chris Duhon, according to his head coach, held Virginia Tech’s Malcolm Delaney and Marshall to just 7-of-24 shooting in the tournament’s final two rounds.

“I think we won [the ACC tournament] because of his ball pressure,” Krzyzewski said. “There’s no doubt about it.”

It’s seems fitting, then, that Irving’s potential return during the NCAA tournament would force Smith into yet another style of play, albeit one he had time to adjust to during the preseason and fall schedule.

In fact, the senior has become so used to the changing X’s and O’s that he can focus on what he believes is one of his biggest, yet understated, roles: being a leader.

And while many would be overwhelmed by such a late season change, it’s just another day in the diverse career of Nolan Smith.

alookback >>Freshman year A top-ranked recruit, Smith plays sparingly behind older guards >>Sophomore year Smith’s minutes go up, but he still is not the dominant scorer he was at Oak Hill. Duke loses in embarrassing fashion in the Sweet 16 >>Junior year Smith becomes a top member of the team, scores 29 against Baylor to put Duke in the Final Four >>Senior year Smith transforms his game after an injury to Kyrie Irving, wins ACC Player of the Year

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8 | THURSDAY, MARCH 17, 2011

ncaa tournament preview

the sharpshooters

breaking down duke

Curry, Dawkins carry on Duke sharpshooting tradition

by Jacob Levitt THE CHRONICLE

“Live by the three, die by the three,” the adage goes.

For Duke, a team which has largely epitomized that mantra for the past several years, no players embody the approach as much as sharpshooting sophomores Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins. Curry takes more than 60 percent of his shots from long-distance, while over 70 percent of Dawkins’s attempts come from behind the arc.

The players’ adherence to their strengths is evident in their outstanding offensive numbers. Among players who have taken more than 30 shots, Dawkins leads the team

THE ROAD TO THE 2011 NCAA WOMEN’S FINAL FOUR ®

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with 1.44 points per shot, followed closely by Curry’s 1.41 points per shot.

But in the Blue Devils’ losses, the team’s reliance on the 3-pointer has haunted it. While much has been made of senior Kyle Singler’s poor shooting performances, Curry and Dawkins have also had their share of struggles. And on the rare occasions that the team has lost, those struggles have been evident. Curry’s 20-point game in the regular season finale notwithstanding, neither player has scored in double figures in a losing effort.

In Duke’s loss to Florida State, more than half of the team’s shots were 3-pointers. Dawkins and Curry combined to shoot a dismal 2-for-14 from long range. Their shooting against St. John’s was similarly woeful, as the pair combined to go 2-for-11 on 3-point attempts. For the Blue Devils to advance in the tournament, that can’t happen.

“I learned from them [last year’s team] what it takes to prepare for a game in the NCAA Tournament,” Curry said.

“You can’t skip a beat or... skip a team. Because if you play one bad game, then you’re out.”

See shooters on page 16

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TED KNUDSEN AND MARGIE TRUWIT/Chronicle file photo

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ncaa tournament preview

THURSDAY, MARCH 17, 2011 | 9

Don’t forget who brought Duke here Run a Google search for “Duke,” and the bulk of your results will be related to Jalen Rose’s recent comments about Duke recruits being “Uncle Toms” and the imminent return—or non-return—of Kyrie Irving.

This isn’t unexpected in our fast-paced world of right now, but even as we dive headlong into the media frenzy over Fab Fives and Tom turf toes and March Madness, it’s time for a moment of appreciation for two Blue Devils.

The Duke Basketball program fell into something of a slump following its 2004 run to the Final Four. J.J. Redick and Shelden Williams played out their junior and senior years without making it past the Sweet 16. Things seemed headed downward from there, as the 2006-07 squad was bounced from the

Gieryn

Tournament in the first round.

Then, in 2007, along came two of the nation’s top recruits. ESPN ranked Kyle Singler fourth in the class, with Nolan Smith nipping at his heels at No. 6. Singler started right away, averaging nearly 30 minutes per game and chipping in 13.3 points per game, and Smith contributed off the bench. But that wasn’t enough as the Blue Devils narrowly escaped 15th-seeded Belmont in the first round before losing to West Virginia two days later.

There were three more years to grow, though, and as Singler made incremental improvements to his game, Smith made even bigger strides. He jumped from 15 minutes and six points per game in his freshman year to 22 minutes and eight points as a sophomore before breaking out last year, to the tune of 36 minutes and 17.3 points per game.

Meanwhile, they grew into the team’s emotional leaders, especially after Greg Paulus’s graduation and Gerald

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Henderson’s leap to the NBA prior to last season: Singler with his understated style and unexpected grace with a basketball, and Smith wearing his feelings on his sleeves, right beside the tattoo of his late father.

Singler’s place in Duke’s rafters ought to be assured already. He doesn’t, and won’t, possess a National Player of the Year award, but he does rank fourth in Duke history in scoring with 2,350 points, and the three men ahead of him on the scoring list—Redick, Johnny Dawkins, and Christian Laettner—were all easy choices to have their jerseys retired.

The first time he grabs a missed shot against Hampton on Friday, he’ll also have his thousandth rebound, making him the seventh Duke player to break that mark. Four rebounds later he’ll pass Danny Ferry for sixth all-time, which is likely where he’ll finish his career.

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NCAA TOURNAM

10 | THURSDAY, MARCH 17, 2011

(1) Ohio State

the case for...

OHIO STATE

by Stuart Price

H

istory has not been particularly kind to the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Since the selection committee began distinguishing a top seed in 2004, only one team—Florida in 2007—has captured the national championship.

Just last year, No. 9 seed Northern Iowa outlasted formidable overall No. 1 seed Kansas in the second round, sending shock waves throughout the country.

This year, however, it seems incredibly unlikely that Ohio State will succumb to a fate similar to that of last year’s Jayhawks. Rather, as one of this year’s most balanced and veteran teams, the Buckeyes are the clear team to beat in the Tournament.

Ironically, for a team that starts three seniors and a junior, Ohio State’s effectiveness begins with freshman Jared Sullinger, who was recently named Big Ten freshman of the year and Big Ten tournament most outstanding player. The 6-foot-9 power forward dominated the paint all season, averaging 17.2 points per game on 53.6 percent shooting while grabbing 10.1 rebounds per game.

Possessing one of the country’s elite, true big men gives the Buckeyes a distinct advantage over the rest of the field. Most importantly, though, Ohio State can feel confident that it will have its interior stud on the court at the end of the game, as Sullinger has only fouled out once all year. When trying to draw contact, Sullinger is virtually unstoppable. And his 70.4 free throw percentage means the Buckeyes can confidently dump the ball into the freshman during end-of-game See oHIO STATE on page 15

(16) UTSA (8) George Mason (9) Villanova (5) West Virginia

DUKE

(4) Kentucky (13) Princeton

(6) Xavier

F

or those who have lived under a rock for the past year or so, Duke won the 2010 national championship in Indianapolis. Several variables contributed to the fourth title in head coach Mike Krzyzewski’s tenure at the university, but three central areas formed the foundation for the success: high percentage shots, offensive rebounding and the emergence of a post presence.

While the roster has changed this season, the statistics have remained remarkably similar.

Going into the 2010 NCAA Tournament, the Blue Devils were searching for a post presence, and they found it with the dynamic duo of Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas. This year’s team faces the same challenge.

Enter the Plumlee brothers.

Mason and Miles Plumlee have stepped up to close the season, highlighted by outstanding performances in the ACC tournament. Over those three games, the two combined to average 6.3 offensive rebounds, 13.3 total rebounds and 16 points per game, all of which are improvements in comparison to their regular season statistics.

A similar coming-out party occurred in the very same tournament last season, when Zoubek and Thomas averaged 7.2 offensive rebounds, 15.3 total rebounds and 10.5 points per game, with all categories representing a step up from regular season play.

This added edge in the paint should provide the Blue Devils ample opportunity to score—although shooting the ball has rarely been a problem for Duke.

Last season, the team shot a dazzling 44 percent See duke on page 16

NEWARK

(11) Marquette (3) Syracuse (14) Indiana St. (7) Washington (10) Georgia

Syracuse survived the brutal Big East, and is a trendy pick to upset the mighty Buckeyes

(2) North Carolina

Since Larry Drew quit the Tar Heels, Kendall Marshall has grown into his starting point guard position, leading the ACC in assists

(15) Long Island

(16) Hampton

by Danny Nolan

Ohio State’s Jared Sullinger has dominated the Big 10 as a freshman. He will look to continue his strong play in Newark

(12) Clemson

(1) Duke

the case for...

MIDWEST

Keith Benson, a big 6-foot-11 center, is an NBA draft prospect that may be the best player you’ve never heard of

(8) Michigan (9) Tennessee (5) Arizona (12) Memphis (4) Texas (13) Oakland

ANAHEIM (6) Cincinnati (11) Missouri (3) Connecticut (14) Bucknell (7) Temple (10) Penn St. (2) San. Diego St. (15) Northern Colo.

Coach Steve Fisher is best known for putting together the Fab Five, but he has turned around San Diego St. from a lowly program into a scary team

Kemba Walker tore up the Big East tournament, setting a conference record by averaging 26 points over the five games.

He’ll look to keep his hot streak going in the Big Dance

WEST

MENT PREVIEW

THURSDAY, MARCH 17, 2011 | 11

SOUTHWEST

(1) Kansas (16) Boston University (8) UNLV (9) Illinois (5) Vanderbilt

Richmond coach Chris Mooney led his team to a 27-7 record this year. The Spiders are a trendy pick to top Vanderbilt on the first weekend

(12) Richmond (4) Louisville (13) Morehead St.

SAN ANTONIO

Picked by many in the country, including the president, as the national champions, Kansas sports a dominant frontcourt

(6) Georgetown (11) USC/VCU (3) Purdue (14) St. Peter’s (7) Texas A&M

Purdue was a topthree team at the beginning of the season, then saw star Robbie Hummel go down. The Boilmakers have recovered, though, and are led

by JaJuan Johnson

(10) Florida State (2) Notre Dame

the case for...

KANSAS

by Ryan Claxton

Following Mario’s Miracle in the 2008 National Championship game, Kansas was faced with a rebuilding project. With six seniors graduating and three other key contributors bolting to the NBA, head coach Bill Self needed to reload talent if the Jayhawks were to remain contenders on a national level.

Enter Marcus and Markieff Morris.

After registering significant minutes and showing flashes of brilliance as highly-touted freshmen, the twin brothers made key contributions last season, guiding Kansas to the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. But after falling to Northern Iowa in the second round, the twins were again left empty-handed.

Starting together regularly for the first time this season following the departure of Cole Aldrich to the NBA, the Morris brothers have become the core of an experienced Kansas squad that once again has all the pieces to return to the pinnacle of college basketball.

With only two losses at the hands of their biggest hardcourt rivals—Kansas State and Texas—the Jayhawks win with depth and balance that complement their bigs in the paint.

Markieff, the older of the twins by seven minutes, is the better defender and rebounder. In 24 minutes per game this year, he has averaged 8.2 boards and just over one block per game. But Markieff is no slouch on the offensive end either, utilizing his athleticism to lead the Kansas starters in field goal percentage. While he’s more known for his tenacity in the paint, he’ll occasionally wander to the perimeter where he shoots just over See KANSAS on page 17

(15) Akron

(1) Pittsburgh (16) UNC-Ashville Many were surprised to see Utah State, which ranks No. 19 in the AP poll, draw a 12-seed.

Look for the Aggies to avenge their slight by the selection committee

(8) Butler (9) Old Dominion (5) Kansas State (12) Utah State (4) Wisconsin (13) Belmont

NEW ORLEANS Despite being the third No. 1 seed, Pittsburgh drew perhaps the easiest road to Houston. It would be surprising to not see Ashton Gibbs and the Panthers get out of the Southeast

(6) St. John’s (11) Gonzaga Michigan State started the year with high expectations, only to fall off the map. The Spartans, led by Tom Izzo, did beat Purdue on March 11, though

SOUTHEAST

(3) BYU (14) Wofford (7) UCLA (10) Michigan State (2) Florida (15) UC Santa Barbara

the case for...

PITTSBURGH

by Jason Palmatary

As soon as the brackets were unveiled, it was immediately clear that one of the top seeds had been dealt a favorable hand. That team with the easiest path out of its region is Pittsburgh—which is the reason the Panthers will end up hoisting the hardware in Houston.

Standing in the way of a Pitt Final Four berth appear to be Florida, Brigham Young and Wisconsin. The Gators are a team that most pundits consider to be the weakest No. 2 seed after getting thrashed in the SEC championship game by a young Kentucky squad. Brigham Young may be an underdog story, but the suspension of Brandon Davies sent the Cougars into a late-season swoon that has people questioning whether to expect them to be around for the second weekend. And Wisconsin has another rock-solid team led by Bo Ryan, but the grind-it-out Badgers don’t have the firepower to beat Pitt, as demonstrated by their woeful 36-33 loss to Penn State in the Big 10 tournament.

But, beyond the easier competition in their Southeast Region, the Panthers have proven all season long that they can perform on the court too. Finishing with a 27-5 mark overall, which included a 15-3 conference record and Big East regular season championship, Pitt is clearly battle-tested and showed the ability to pull out wins against the nation’s toughest competition.

Although the Panthers did get nipped early in their conference tournament by a Kemba Walker See pitt on page 17

12 | THURSDAY, MARCH 17, 2011

ncaa tournament preview

ncaa tournament preview

THURSDAY, MARCH 17, 2011 | 13

the case for... the field

Recent history, deep field work against one-seeds

by Andy Margius THE CHRONICLE

While the number one seeds this season may pack a powerful punch, they far from guarantee a knockout blow.

Picking either Pittsburgh, Ohio State, Kansas or Duke means taking a team that has not had incredible success as a top seed in the past.

Pittsburgh failed to make it to the Final Four in its only appearance as a one-seed in 2009. Ohio State has held the honor three times, yet failed to win on each occasion. Ten times Kansas has been a one-seed, yet they only have one title—in 2008—to show for it. And Duke, despite achieving the rank a record twelve times, has only hung a Cameron banner a relatively small three times on such occasions.

But, of course, that’s the past. What about 2011?

Making it through the field will be far from an easy feat for any of the aforementioned squads. The Panthers have struggled this season to contain teams with solid perimeter shooting. The Buckeyes rely too much on Jared Sullinger to drive their team’s hopes. The Jayhawks have crumbled twice this season under the high pressure of rivalry games, an environment that best parallels the NCAA Tournament. And for the Blue Devils, inconsistent post play and the questionable sta-

tus of Kyrie Irving may ultimately be their undoing.

Then there is the competition. Notre Dame, North Carolina, Brigham Young, Syracuse, Connecticut and Louisville all pose serious threats to the title. Ben Hansbrough and the Fighting Irish play one of the most unique styles of basketball, shortening the game by running down the shot clock. Harrison Barnes and the Tar Heels come in with great momentum, having played their best basketball during the second half of the season. Player of the Year candidate Jimmer Fredette and the Cougars are hungry to prove they can succeed without star forward Brandon Davies. And the Orange, Huskies and Cardinals are all battle-tested from a highquality Big East conference, making the transition to the national stage easier.

The one seeds also have some difficult roads to navigate if they are to even make the Final Four. Ohio State—which has arguably the toughest region—will need to get by a challenging Kentucky squad just to make the Elite Eight. If things play out, Pittsburgh could face a rowdy St. John’s team that defeated the Panthers just under a month ago. Duke could have a Sweet 16 matchup with Texas, a squad that was considered a potential one-seed at one point this season. And while Kansas has a relatively easy path to Houston, the threats of Louisville, Purdue and Notre Dame all loom large in the Southwest Region.

Although the one seeds may come into the NCAA Tournament as top dogs, ultimately there will be a problem in Houston—if the one seeds can even make it that far.

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Justin Brownlee and St. John’s are a No. 6 seed, but, as Duke saw in Madison Square Garden, the Red Storm can compete with anyone.

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ncaa tournament preview

gieryn from page 9 If he can accumulate just 55 more tallies between points, rebounds and assists, which he’s likely to do by the end of the first weekend of the Tournament, he’ll place second behind only Laettner in the sum of those statistics.

Smith might require a little March magic if he’s to see his jersey retired. His 1,870 points are good for 18th all time, but if he can score 58 in the Tournament, he’ll move up three spots to pass Grant Hill. Five more assists and 12 more rebounds will see him crack the 400 barrier in both those categories.

On a purely statistical level, that still probably won’t be enough to put No. 2 in the rafters, but March Madness affords him the opportunity to put one more

“ BBQ ,

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very important statistic on his resume: a second championship. Of the four players to start for Duke in two NCAA championship victories, three have their numbers hanging in Cameron, so those odds can’t hurt.

The odds get even better if you forgive him somewhat for the playing time he didn’t get early in his career, as his senior season isn’t so different from Jason Williams’s sophomore season at Duke, which is often regarded as one of the better individual campaigns in Duke history. Williams’s all-around contributions were remarkable for a guard: 21.6 points, 3.3 rebounds, 6.1 assists and two steals per game as his team won the NCAA title.

Smith’s 21.2 points and 5.2 assists per game look strikingly similar. If he can match the National Player of the Year

AS A

award that Williams won that season, Smith would prove hard to turn down.

In a statement issued yesterday, much of which was featured as a guest column for the New York Times’ college sports blog, Grant Hill wrote about Smith.

“All of us are extremely proud of the cur-

rent Duke team, especially Nolan Smith,” he wrote. “He is the quintessential young Dukie.”

So for Singler and Smith, there’s more at stake than right now. Because while the tweets of today will get lost in the talk of tomorrow, banners hang forever.

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ncaa tournament preview

THURSDAY, MARCH 17, 2011 | 15

fanaroff from page 4

ohio state from page 10

into every press conference.

Without Irving, the Blue Devils could credibly look beatable as they adjusted to his absence on the fly. They would lose four regular season games, including a true stinker on national television against St. John’s and a road game against North Carolina.

But just when the national media started doubting them, they’d turn it around in time for the ACC tournament, dominating all challengers, including the hated Tar Heels. And to top it all off, Irving would tell the media that there’s a chance he’ll play in the NCAA Tournament— putting the toe back in the spotlight and preventing the rest of the world from realizing that Krzyzewski was only four wins away from tying Knight’s record.

Irving would return in the Tournament, and the Blue

situations and expect him to produce.

Ohio State’s offensive attack is by no means one-dimensional, however. Senior guard Jon Diebler is arguably the best 3-point sniper in the country, shooting a red-hot 50 percent from 3-point range on 204 attempts. Junior William Buford and redshirt senior David Lighty round out the Buckeyes’ four-headed monster, averaging 14.4 and 11.8 points per game, respectively.­ Despite this dynamic offensive attack, Ohio State critics worry that head coach Thad Matta’s tight seven-man rotation might trip up the Buckeyes. But this concern seems shortsighted, as both of Ohio State’s losses this season were more a result of playing conference foes Wisconsin and Purdue on the road than significant offensive inefficiency

Harrison Barnes would shoot 0-for-10 from the field, in a game that was the exact opposite of Christian Laettner’s 1992 performance.

— Alex Fanaroff

or foul struggles. Quite the contrary, in two of Sullinger’s worst performances of the year—when he fouled out at Michigan and posted a lowly eleven points and two rebounds against a streaking Michigan State, the Buckeyes managed to pull out victories.

All in all, this Ohio State team seems to have no weakness. The squad has senior leadership, a big-time inside scoring threat and dynamic outside gunners. According to kenpom.com and its Pythagorean calculation, the Buckeyes have the top offense and 11th best defense in the country. After a NCAA championship game run in 2007 and an impressive 188-56 record under Matta, it’s finally time for Ohio State to bring a championship trophy home to Columbus for the first time since 1960. More importantly, it’s time for a top overall seed in the Tournament to again prove its worth against lesser opponents.

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Devils would breeze through to the Final Four, with Coach K tying Knight’s record. (Not even Krzyzewski could predict that the NCAA Tournament would give Texas a No. 4 seed. He could, however, predict that Virginia Tech wouldn’t make the Tournament. Seth Greenberg just makes for great television, and Coach K knows entertainment.)

In the national semi-final, Duke would face North Carolina for the first time ever in the Tournament. The Blue Devils would race out to a quick 25-point lead, and it would never be any closer than that. Harrison Barnes would shoot 0-for-10 from the field and 0-for-10 from the foul line, in a game that was the exact opposite of Christian Laettner’s 1992 regional final performance. After the game, a dejected Barnes would attempt to walk off the court, but he’d be stopped by Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek, who would handcuff him and take him back to Krzyzewski. Live on Skype, Barnes would stand by Coach K as he announced his retirement, effective immediately.

Nolan Smith would take over as player-coach-mascot for the championship game, an easy Blue Devil win.

When Krzyzewski finished outlining the plan, Wojciechowski, Collins and James looked up at their leader in disbelief. Surely he was joking.

“Savekyriestoe.com?” they thought. “That’s ridiculous.”

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duke from page 10 from the field and 39 percent from behind the arc. While this year’s squad may not shoot the ball as frequently, attempting almost 70 less shots at this point of the season, the Blue Devils are just as deadly. The 2010-11 team has shot 47 percent from the field overall and 38 percent from 3-point land, nearly identical numbers to that of the 2009-10 squad.

Although shooting wasn’t an issue, second chance opportunities were for both teams. Look at any Blue Devil loss over the last two seasons, and there is one common flaw: an inability to make shots. As a result, a key concern for Duke teams the past few years has been grabbing offensive rebounds, giving shooters another look at the basket.

Luckily, in the ACC tournament, Duke

ncaa tournament preview

improved its offensive rebounding, and it showed. The Blue Devils capitalized on offensive rebounds to the tune of 14.7 points per game, higher than their regular season average.

And with its improved offensive rebounding, none of Duke’s games in the tournament finished closer than 14 points. For a team that has won a great majority of its games by double digits (26 of the 30 total wins), this may not seem like a big deal, but each of the three teams the Blue Devils faced in Greensboro were quality opponents, and two of them had beaten Duke in their previous meeting.

The Blue Devils’ bracket draw for the journey to Houston is more challenging than last year’s, but if history really does repeat itself, one fact remains the same: The Duke Blue Devils will be back-to-back national champs.

Good Luck, Blue Devils

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shooters from page 8 Fortunately, Curry seems to be finding his stroke at just the right time. After being held scoreless against Virginia Tech, his father’s alma mater, Curry has scored double figures in five straight games while hitting over half of his shots from behind the arc.

Dawkins has not yet recovered his touch from the nonconference season— in early January, he had risen to second nationally in statistician Ken Pomeroy’s individual efficiency ratings—but his 3-for-4 shooting night against North Carolina in the ACC championship game is an encouraging sign. He also has tournament experience, notably knocking down a corner three against Baylor to stem the Bears’ 10-0 run going into halftime of the regional final.

While Curry—who as a result of NCAA rules did not receive a championship ring for his role on last year’s team—does not have that experience, he looks forward to creating his own tournament memories, this time from the court rather than the bench.

“It’s like a dream come true. I can’t wait to get out there in the tournament,” Curry said. “I’ve seen it from all angles.

Now I’m ready to just get out there and be a part of it.”

Head coach Mike Krzyzewski’s announcement about Kyrie Irving’s possible return has dominated recent headlines, and it will no doubt be an important subplot in the Blue Devils’ opening games.

But the performance of Dawkins and Curry—each of whom took a turn in the starting lineup after Irving went down— may be just as important for Duke’s championship aspirations.

kelly from page 5

“Coming off the bench, he could just be himself instead of the second season, Kelly made 18 straight field goals big man or whatever,” Krzyzewski said. over a span of four games, a streak that fell “He and I have talked about it. It gives only two shots short of the Duke record. him more room to grow and be who he But, ironically might become, enough, Kelly he became “I needed to become... a guy and truly shone after a better player returning to the that’s reliable for our team— this week by bench during coming off the that every play I can be de- bench.” the ACC Tournament.

The Even if Kelpended on.” sophomore averly is no longer — Ryan Kelly in the startaged 9.7 points per game in the ing lineup, his tournament and per formance missed only six shots, including a 5-for-5 over the next few weeks will be crushooting performance against Maryland. cial to the Blue Devils’ championAccording to Krzyzewski, coming ship hopes. And he certainly won’t off the bench might actually be a more be forgotten this time if Duke is celcomfortable role for Kelly. ebrating in April once again.

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ncaa tournament preview

pitt from page 11 buzzer beater, that only means that their legs are going to be fresher for a sixgame run.

Like many historic Pitt teams, Jamie Dixon’s squad prides itself on its work on the defensive end. The Panthers rank 21st in the nation in scoring defense, yielding just 61 points per game. With

kansas from page 11 40 percent from beyond the arc.

Marcus, on the other hand, possesses the more complete offensive repertoire.

Proficient from nearly every spot on the court, Marcus can extend the floor against bigger, slower defenders as well as exert his strength at will in the paint. Whether facing up or with his back to the basket, the younger Morris has no trouble finding the hoop, leading the team with 17.3 points per game while also contributing 7.2 rebounds per contest for the Big 12 champions.

Where the twins will really impress the unfamiliar eye is with their ball handling abilities. Both possess above-average ball skills and passing ability for their size, and make few mistakes with the ball in their hands. Add in impeccable athleticism, and Marcus and Markieff possess the complete package of skills to carry a team to a championship.

While the brothers from Philadelphia are undoubtedly the focal point of this Kansas squad, coach Bill Self has done a masterful job of surrounding his big men with complementary players to create the most balanced squad in the country. Lightningquick guard Tyshawn Taylor and freshman wingman Josh Selby can both shoot and drive to the hoop, while senior sharpshoot-

THURSDAY, MARCH 17, 2011 | 17

Gary McGhee and a host of other big men on the inside, Pitt excels at protecting the rim. Given that it takes six games to win a title, the Panthers’ prowess on the defensive end gives them the flexibility to absorb an off-night scoring the ball.

Putting the ball in the basket, though, is not a problem that the Panthers have had either. The trio of guards Ashton Gibbs, Brad Wanamaker and forward er Brady Morningstar provides leadership and championship experience—not to mention a stellar 40.2 shooting percentage from 3-point territory.

Thomas Robinson spells the Morris twins in the paint and has given the team an emotional charge following the death of his mother early this season.

The sophomore from Washington, D.C. has increased his production throughout the Big 12 schedule, peaking with his third double-double of the season in just 17 minutes of play during the regular season finale at Missouri.

The Jayhawks are at their best when Morningstar and fellow Kansas senior Tyrel Reed are pouring it in from the perimeter, giving Marcus and Markieff room to operate inside. Through creating space and sharing the ball, the team heads into the Tournament first in the nation in field goal percentage and second in assists—certainly one of the most efficient offenses in the field.

Kansas is a team with Big 12 championship experience and an elite coach who can score from all over the floor and defend well at every position. For a program that has produced the likes of Wilt Chamberlain, Danny Manning and Paul Pierce, the Morris twins are primed to be the next players to solidify their place in the Jayhawks’ storied history.

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Gilbert Brown are all double-digit scorers. Gibbs, the team’s leading scorer at just under 17 points an outing, missed three crucial conference games with a knee injury. In his absence, Wanamaker and Brown provided veteran leadership over a stretch that saw the Panthers go 3-0, including road wins over West Virginia and Villanova. These victories are proof that the offense can come from any number of sources, and Pitt will

be not be derailed by an injury or foul trouble.

As the old saying goes, defense wins championships, and Ohio State is the only team which has given opponents more trouble scoring this year. Still, Pitt’s interior defense is likely to slow down Jared Sullinger just enough, and the Panthers’ balanced offensive attack will help them pull away late in a lowscoring Monday night win April 4.

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staff picks

ncaa tournament preview

or: who picked unc to win it all? upset special

1st no. 1 to lose

Favorite mascot

favorite announcer

Duke FINISH

M.O.P.

Andy

FINAL 4

Marcus Morris

Wofford over BYU

Marv Albert

Scheezy

FINAL 4

Jared Sullinger

Washington over UNC

Gus Johnson

Cusack

CHAMPS

Kyle Singler

Michigan St. over Florida

Gus Johnson

Palmafrat

FINAL 4

Marcus Morris

Richmond over Vandy

Jack Buck

Truwit

CHAMPS

Kyrie Irving

Belmont over Wisconsin

Jeff Van Gundy

staffer

ncaa champ

SLEEPER

sportsstaff Editor: Andy Moore Managing Editor: Jeff Scholl Editor-elect: Chris Cusack Photo Editor: Margie Truwit Online Editor: Scott Rich Features Editor: Laura Keeley Associate Editors: Harrison Comfort, Ryan Claxton, Caroline Fairchild, Tom Gieryn, Alex Krinsky, Patricia Lee, Matt Levenberg, Jacob Levitt, Andy Margius, Vignesh Nathan, Jason Palmatary, Stuart Price, Nicholas Schwartz, Tim Visutipol Senior Associate Editors: Sabreena Merchant, Felicia Tan First-Year Writers: Andrew Beaton, Maureen Dolan, Sarah Elsakr, Dawei Liu, Danny Nolan, Steven Slywka, Bo Triplett, Alex Young Photographers: Ted Knudsen, Lawson Kurtz, Michael Naclerio, Tyler Seuc, Margie Truwit, Toni Wei Special thanks to: Chronicle Editor Lindsey Rupp, Photography Editor Courtney Douglas, News Editor Taylor Doherty, Online Editor Christina Pena, Former Sports Managing Editor Sabreena Merchant, Felica Tan, Alex Krinsky The NCAA Tournament Preview is a sports supplement published annually by The Chronicle. It can be read online at: www.dukechronicle.com Founded in 2007 and renamed in 2011, The Blue Zone is The Chronicle’s daily presence online: www.sports.chronicleblogs.com

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In honor of Duke’s one-seed and Houston’s Wild West origins, we put Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler on the cover of our annual NCAA Tournament preview. Photos and cover design by Margie Truwit.

ncaa tournament preview

THURSDAY, MARCH 17, 2011 | 19

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