the chronicle
march 18, 2010
THE CORE FOUR ncaa tournament preview
2 | THURSDAY, MARCH 18, 2010
NCAA TOURNAMENT PREVIEW
NCAA Tourney Guide: Table of Contents
4 5
Columnist Alex Fanaroff argues that it’s not always what you see on the court from Duke that matters
6
After their 18th ACC Tournament title, the Blue Devils are hungry to add to their trophy collection
7
Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer lead a stellar backcourt with Andre Dawkins waiting in the wings
8
In a short time, senior Brian Zoubek has gone from backup center to key cog in Duke’s NCAA Tournament machine
9
The Chronicle identifies the five things Duke has to do well to keep its national championship hopes alive Former Blue Devil Jamal Boykin, now a starter at California, talks to Andy Moore about his transfer away from Duke
10-12 The full NCAA Tournament bracket, cases for the four No. 1 seeds, the case for the field—in short, everything you need to fill out your own bracket before tipoff
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THE CHRONICLE
THURSDAY, MARCH 18, 2010 | 3
THE CONTENDERS Duke is a No. 1 seed, but who else has a chance at cutting down the nets in Indianapolis? Below, a statistical breakdown of some of the best teams in the nation.
DUKE Record: 29-5 RPI: 3 SOS: 8 Highest ranking: 4
KENTUCKY Record: 32-2 RPI: 2 SOS: 31 Highest ranking: 1
KANSAS Record: 32-2 RPI: 1 SOS: 5 Highest ranking: 1
WEST VIRGINIA Record: 27-6 RPI: 4 SOS: 3 Highest ranking: 5
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SYRACUSE Record: 28-4 RPI: 5 SOS: 11 Highest ranking: 1
OHIO STATE Record: 27-7 RPI: 22 SOS: 63 Highest ranking: 5
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4 | THURSDAY, MARCH 18, 2010
NCAA TOURNAMENT PREVIEW
Forget the “eye test”: Duke’s got a shot at NCAA glory While in the line to get into the DukeCarolina game, I had a conversation with a group of grad students about Duke’s chances to win the NCAA Tournament. Since I’m a sports columnist for The Chronicle (and Coach K had just called me out in front the entire student body), they asked me how I thought Duke would do in the postseason. When I told them that I’d give Duke a 40 percent chance to reach the Final Four and a 10 percent chance to win the entire thing, they told me I was crazy. But it’s not like they’re alone. Almost everyone Alex I’ve talked to has a lower opinion of this year’s Duke team than I do. The commentators on ESPN and CBS praise the Blue Devils only begrudgingly. No one thinks they’re on the same level as Kentucky, Kansas or Syracuse. When I watch the Blue Devils play, I don’t even believe my own positive assessment of the team, if that makes sense. They just don’t pass the “eye test.” But I believe in data. I believe that a computer can tell me things about college basketball that I can’t see with my subjective eyes. I believe that subjective eyes see what they want to see, instead of seeing reality. And so I believe the mathematical models of Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin when they tell me that Duke is the best team in the country and the favorite to take home the national championship trophy. For centuries, philosophers like Thucydides, Francis Bacon and Leo Tolstoy have
Fanaroff
understood that seeing isn’t necessarily believing. Studies by cognitive psychologists in the 20th century obectively identified the notion of confirmation bias—that humans have a tendency to believe only information that confirms their pre-existing theories about the way the world works. In college basketball, we tend to believe that the best teams are always hyper-athletic and chock-full of future NBA All-Stars. We believe that the best teams run up and down the court and swat opponents’ shots into the seventh row. We believe that the best teams always have five players on the court that can score, and that they can always dump the ball into the post to get an easy bucket in the half court. And then we look at this year’s Duke team—without superior athletes, without a ton of NBA talent, without a fast-paced slam-dunking style, without more than three threats to score on most possessions, without a dominant post player—and we say that there’s no way they can be the best. So when we see the Blue Devils get blown out by Georgetown and lose to N.C. State, that confirms our opinion and we believe the Duke team that showed up for those games is “real.” We ignore blowout wins over Gonzaga, Florida State, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Maryland because dominant wins don’t support our idea that the Blue Devils are not a dominant team. So instead of focusing on Duke’s strengths—that it has three players that shoot a high percentage and almost never turn the ball over, that Brian Zoubek is the MICHAEL NACLERIO/CHRONICLE FILE PHOTO
SEE FANAROFF ON PAGE 14
Kyle Singler may not be the most athletic player, but his other skills are part of why Duke is a No. 1 seed.
THE CHRONICLE
THURSDAY, MARCH 18, 2010 | 5
TOURNAMENT PREVIEW
For Duke, the end goal is Indy by Patricia Lee THE CHRONICLE
Capturing the ACC tournament trophy and sharing the title of regular season champions, No. 4 Duke enters the NCAA Tournament confident in its place as the third No.1 seed with sights set on adding another championship to the three the school already has. The Blue Devils (29-5) overcame Georgia Tech Sunday behind senior Jon Scheyer’s 3-pointer in the final seconds of the game. The 65-61 victory brought Duke its 18th ACC tournament championship and put it in a great position to secure a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, particularly after Syracuse—formerly the best team in the nation—lost twice last week. “It’s very rewarding, but at the same time, you just have to move on,” Scheyer said of winning the ACC tournament. “It’s definitely exciting, but [right now], we’re just looking forward to who we get to play now.” Head coach Mike Krzyzewski highlighted the growth of the team’s players throughout the season
MICHAEL NACLERIO/CHRONICLE FILE PHOTO
Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski was pleased with his team’s composure late in games as the Blue Devils won the ACC Tournament title.
as a strength going into March Madness, particularly noting senior Brian Zoubek’s persistence and senior Lance Thomas’s leadership. “It is the best feeling… when you coach in college [because] you watch kids grow up to be men, players, and that has been the beauty for me,” Krzyzewski said. “Winning championships, that’s pretty beautiful, too, but you win by watching that growth.” Playing three tough games en route to winning the conference tournament, the Blue Devils grew accustomed to quick turnarounds and back-to-back play, something that will come in handy during the NCAA Tournament. Playing on neutral territory has also helped Duke prepare for the upcoming games, strengthening the players mentally and forcing them to perform consistently—even when they are far from Cameron Indoor Stadium, where Duke went 17-0 this season. “We have had three tough games here, all the game situations that we have been in, especially late game situations, inbounding the ball, the free throw shooting.... Our free throw shooting during the tournament at the end was just spectacular,” Krzyzewski said of his team’s performance in Greensboro. “Beating them and being in these situations, it was a great tournament, a good basketball game.” “This gives us momentum, and we learned a little bit about our team this week,” Zoubek said. “Three games right in a row are really hard. It’s like the NCAA Tournament, and we’ll learn from it and move on.” Though the Blue Devils are facing 16th seed ArkansasPine Bluff in their first round matchup, they are treating every team equally and are working to come off strong both on rebounding and on making shots. “Who you play or where you’re playing doesn’t matter. We need to win,” Scheyer said. “We need to be ready to go and take care of business the first game and get ready for a tough second game.” The team’s potential second-round opponents are eighth-seeded California and ninth-seeded Louisville. The Blue Devils acknowledge both teams will be tough opponents, especially since they are from outside the ACC and
Good Luck, Blue Devils
“ BBQ ,
SAM SHEFT/CHRONICLE FILE PHOTO
Senior Lance Thomas has been an emotional leader for Duke, and his motivation will be key when the Blue Devils encounter difficulties this month. play in a different style from what Duke is used to. However, the seniors are confident in the team’s ability to compete against any style of play and look to guide their team with enthusiasm and motivation. “We have a pretty tough bracket, but I think we’re capable of playing anybody as long as we play our game as far as defensive rebounding and just finishing it,” Thomas said. “I’m going to be just full of energy the full time and I want to spread that with my teammates. I don’t want to hold anything back.” And showing up to the Tournament as the No. 1 seed for the first time since 2006—this time in the South Region— could give the Blue Devils the momentum they need to advance to the Sweet 16, Elite 8 and possibly the Final Four.
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6 | THURSDAY, MARCH 18, 2010
NCAA TOURNAMENT PREVIEW
THE BACKCOURT
Dawkins provides cover for marquee duo by Jordan Siedell THE CHRONICLE
As the nets came down in Greensboro and the Blue Devils wrapped up a record 18th ACC Tournament championship, the spotlight was never very far from Duke’s dynamic guard duo of Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith, both of whom have played critical roles in getting their team to this point. Along with Kyle Singler—a combo player with size and range—they have formed the highest-scoring trio in the league, and the main reason for Duke’s 29-5 record as well as a No. 1 seed for March Madness. With combined averages of 35.9 points, 7.9 assists and 6.4 rebounds per game, it isn’t hard to see the value Scheyer and Smith have for a Duke team that looks to make a deep Tournament run. Scheyer is playing the best basketball of his career, turning in an impressive season in which he was named first
team all-ACC and was among the conference leaders in points, assists, steals and assist-to-turnover ratio. He has proven an exceptional floor general capable of making an impact on a game even on nights when his own shots aren’t falling. This was the case in the ACC title game Sunday, as Scheyer missed his first six 3-point attempts, only to hit the biggest shot of the Tournament, a three with 18 seconds left that sealed the win for the Blue Devils and capped a tremendous conference showing from the point guard in his final collegiate campaign. “Even though I wasn’t hitting, I still wanted the opportunity in the end to shoot the ball,” Scheyer said after the game. “I got a good look and had confidence in it.” Smith has also made his mark on the team’s success, averaging 17.3 points per game only a year after posting SEE GUARDS ON PAGE 16
IAN SOILEAU/THE CHRONICLE
Senior Jon Scheyer has been widely recognized as one of the best players in the nation, let alone the ACC, for his play this season.
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THE CHRONICLE
THURSDAY, MARCH 18, 2010 | 7
BRIAN ZOUBEK, THE LATE BLOOMER
Zoubek’s rise to prominence bodes well for Blue Devils by Scott Rich THE CHRONICLE
Last season, Brian Zoubek’s minutes performed a surprising disappearing act down the stretch. But this year, the senior center has performed a much more impressive magic trick: resurrecting his careerjust in the nick of time. Through the first three months of this year, Zoubek’s performances could be described as average at best. The 7-foot-1 center saw limited action off the bench, playing more than 20 minutes only three times in the team’s first 24 games. He averaged less than five points and about six rebounds per game during that period. Those numbers showed only slight improvement from the center’s junior campaign, when Zoubek started strong but faded in the second half of the season, finishing with only 4.1 points and 3.7 rebounds per game. But the senior was determined not to let his last year at Duke end the same way as his junior campaign. Things changed for Zoubek when head coach Mike Krzyzewski inserted him into the starting lineup Feb. 13 against Maryland. In a truly vintage performance, Zoubek scored 16 points, grabbed 17 boards—eight on the offensive
glass—and helped lead Duke to a dominating victory that arguably spurred its late-season run to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. And he has not let up since. Over the Blue Devils’ last 10 games, Zoubek has played easily the best basketball of his career, averaging double-digit rebounds and over six points per game. “At the end of [the Maryland game] I realized I didn’t want to step back from that. I didn’t want to regress,” Zoubek said. “I didn’t want to ever not play that strong again.” What’s more, a multitude of points could be attributed to Zoubek’s hustle even if he didn’t put the ball in the basket himself, thanks to the center creating second chances on the offensive glass, passing out of the post or setting screens for 3-point shooters. It has been nothing short of a magical renaissance, just as the senior’s career seemed destined to end anticlimactically. “Brian’s playing outstanding basketball for us, no doubt about it,” Krzyzewski said after Zoubek turned in a double-double against Tulsa in late February. “Brian understands his value whether he’s scoring or not…. When you’re a veteran you’re more apt to do that, and that’s what he’s done.”
So how can this Zoubekian renaissance be explained? Health is certainly one factor. Much like fellow seven-footers—the NBA’s Yao Ming immediately comes to mind— Zoubek was hindered by foot injuries throughout his first two seasons at Duke, which not only kept him off the floor during game time but also impeded his progress and conditioning during the offseason. Indeed, this season is arguably the first in which Zoubek has been fully healthy from day one. “It’s been a long process for me, and a lot of hard work,” Zoubek said of overcoming injuries. “It’s great that people actually realize I can play now. When you know you can play the whole time… It’s frustrating.” Not to be overlooked, though, is the center’s improved ability to avoid early foul trouble. Earlier in his career, Zoubek was prone to picking up quick reach-in fouls. The center was also quick to leave his feet at inopportune times when trying to block shots, which, combined with his 7-foot-1 frame, forced referees to blow the whistle even when there was actually minimal contact. In his starting role, though, Zoubek has minimized his fouls enough to find a rhythm early in games. The senior has not fouled out at all during his late-season
MICHAEL NACLERIO/CHRONICLE FILE PHOTO
Brian Zoubek has transformed himself into a productive rebounder in recent weeks. streak (and only committed four fouls in a game four times), while he fouled out six times when coming off the bench earlier in the season. “I think it’s the refs being more comfortable with me, and me being comfortable with the flow of the game,” Zoubek said of his decreased foul trouble. And with dominant big men such as Purdue’s JaJuan Johnson
and Baylor’s Ekpe Udoh lurking in the South Region, the Blue Devils will need Zoubek to remain on the court. And his continued production—offensively, defensively and on the glass—could serve to take pressure off of Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith. Zoubek, though, is confident he can find one more trick up his (very large) sleeve.
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8 | THURSDAY, MARCH 18, 2010
NCAA TOURNAMENT PREVIEW
THE BASICS
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As Duke prepares itself for the NCAA Tournament, The Chronicle gives you five things the Blue Devils must focus on to get to the Final Four in Indianapolis. 1. Crash the Glass Duke shot 44.1 percent from the field this season, ranking it a lowly 139th in the country and a mediocre eighth in the ACC in that category. However, the Blue Devils made up for their poor shooting by grabbing offensive boards and getting easy put-backs. Duke was 15th in the country and third in the ACC in offensive rebounds per game, and senior Brian Zoubek led the team on the offensive glass by taking down 3.4 offensive rebounds per game. Zoubek also led the team in fouls, though, and Duke needs the 7-foot-1 center on the court and snagging missed shots if it expects to be playing in April.
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2. Defense, Defense, Defense! Three-pointers and slam dunks may be exciting, but defense is what wins basketball games, and this Duke team knows that. The Blue Devils gave up more than 70 points eight times this year and lost five of those games. In those five losses, Duke’s opponents shot 52.4 percent from the field. The Blue Devils’ offensive production has varied in those defeats (from shooting 37 percent in the loss to Georgetown to shooting 45 percent against Wisconsin), but their defense, or lack thereof, was their Achilles’ heel. On the other hand, when the Blue Devils step up their defense, the team becomes nearly unbeatable. Duke is undefeated when it holds its opponent under 70 points.
MICHAEL NACLERIO/CHRONICLE FILE PHOTO
Mason and Miles Plumlee can make Duke better by playing tough defense and scoring timely baskets. 3. Support the Big Three It is no secret that Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith carry the bulk of the load for the Blue Devils, but if head coach Mike Krzyzewski’s squad wants to reach the Final Four, it is going to need some production from other players. Scheyer, Singler and Smith accounted for SEE KEYS ON PAGE 13
THE CHRONICLE
THURSDAY, MARCH 18, 2010 | 9
TALKING TO THE TRANSFER
Q &A with Jamal Boykin A week before Duke and California were placed together in the South Region of the NCAA Tournament—the two could meet in the second round this Sunday—former Blue Devil Jamal Boykin spoke with The Chronicle’s Andy Moore about his experiences as a Golden Bear. Boykin played the 2005-2006 season at Duke and started the following year in Durham as well, but appeared in just three games before leaving the program. He is a Los Angeles native. The Chronicle: So how has your career gone ever since you left Duke? Are you kind of happy you left? Jamal Boykin: Well, I’ve always been the type of person to appreciate what I have when I have it. And when I was at Duke, I was very appreciative of the opportunity. I remember waking up so excited every day. I was so excited [for] all the opportunities that Duke had. It was a dream of mine.... I really appreciated that experience just like I appreciate this experience. I’ve never been one to be bitter about anything that happens in life. I
look at everything as a lesson learned, and I had a great experience at Duke. Now, I’m having a great experience here [at Cal]. The two together have combined so that I’ve had a very rich, versatile experience. TC: Well, the weather’s a little better there, right? JB: [Laughs] You know what? When I was in Durham, the weather was really good. I enjoyed watching the seasons change. One day it was so cold I couldn’t feel my face, but for the most part, the weather was really good, especially once I got used to the humidity. The scenery is beautiful. When I first got to Duke, I didn’t go home for nine months, from the time I walked on campus. I had opportunities to go home, but I was perfectly content to stay. TC: So, what have been the biggest differences between being at Cal and being at Duke, both academically and on the basketball team? JB: As a student, the biggest adjustment I had to make was that some of my classes had over 500, 600 people. It was a huge transition to go from that compared with Duke, where some classes had 12 students. A lot of kids here never know their professors... unless you reach out on your own time. Obviously, there are more students here on campus. Probably a more diverse campus—you have people from all over the world here. And you’re in one of the major cities in the country. A big difference was that at UC-Berkeley, I wasn’t really
known. People looked at me and said, he’s tall, he must be a basketball player. But it wasn’t nearly the same attention than at Duke, where everyone knows you. I wasn’t even playing much at Duke, but there was still a lot of support from the fans. Whereas here, that was built over time. It’s that way now. But when I first got here, I thought I was invisible. TC: I bet that was kind of nice, though? Did you embrace the anonymity at Cal? JB: I actually kind of embraced [being known] at Duke. I would go up to the cafeteria by myself and watch people come by. I’m very much a people person. Maybe I would have had an issue with [being too popular,] but probably not. It was more difficult coming here and feeling that it was negative to be an athlete, because there are certain stereotypes associated with being an athlete here. The team wasn’t doing particularly well, and there wasn’t that same level of support being given by the student body. But, like I said, that’s all transformed now. TC: What’s different basketball-wise? Is your coach now easier than [Mike] Krzyzewski was, or about the same? What’s been the difference of the dynamics of the team? JB: Well, I’ve actually had three coaches. When I first transferred here, I was coached by Ben Braun. There was a drastic difference in coaching style between him and Coach K. At Duke, everything in practice, everything was done like clockwork.... At Cal, it was a different mentality. You’re coming from a team where everyone was the best player in their state to where guys are trying to earn their recognition. We all know Coach K runs one of the most professional practices anywhere. But [current] Coach [Mike] Montgomery, one thing I admire about him is he SEE BOYKIN ON PAGE 13
CHRONICLE FILE PHOTO
Jamal Boykin never broke into the rotation at Duke, but this year at California, he has averaged 12 points and 6.7 rebounds per contest.
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the case for...
(1) Kansas
KANSAS by Chris Cusack THE CHRONICLE
“We signed our two most important recruits right there,” head coach Bill Self said last April. “Those two together mean at least 12 to 15 wins.” Self wasn’t talking about the class of 2013, or even junior college transfers. He spoke of the decisions by established Jayhawk stars Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich to remain at Kansas for their senior and junior seasons, respectively. After a brutal five-point loss to eventual NCAA Tournament runner-up Michigan State in the final of the Midwest Regional, Kansas’s immediate future was left in the hands of Collins and Aldrich, arguably the best inside-outside combination in college basketball. The decisions of the two future pros, more than anything else, would determine the fate of this team. Collins and Aldrich did not wait long to make up their minds, announcing at the end-of-year team banquet that they would return. The acquisition of top recruit Xavier Henry has meant almost as much to Self and the Jayhawks, as the freshman is averaging 13.6 points and 4.2 rebounds per game. Plus, Henry is realizing his potential at just the right time. The 6-foot-6, 220-pound shooting guard is physically mature, but has only just begun to play his best basketball in February and March, leading the team in scoring in five of eight games in that stretch. Add in an experienced supporting cast, and it comes as no surprise that the Jayhawks have rolled to 32 wins and both the Big 12 regular season and Tournament titles. Back in the Midwest Regional as the NCAA Tournament’s No. 1 overall seed, Kansas is built more effectively for a deep run than last year, or
(16) Lehigh
MIDWEST
(8) UNLV (9) Northern Iowa (5) Michigan St. (12) New Mexico St. (4) Maryland (13) Houston
ST. LOUIS
(6)Tennessee (11) San Diego St. (3) Georgetown (14) Ohio (7) Oklahoma St. (10) Georgia Tech
CHAM
(2) Ohio St. (15) UC-Santa Barbara
See kansas on page 17
the case for...
SYRACUSE
(1) Syracuse (16) Vermont
by Nicholas Schwartz THE CHRONICLE
When Hakim Warrick’s spectacular block on Kansas’s Michael Lee secured Syracuse’s first national championship in 2003, the Orange completed a title run few could have predicted going into the season. While Syracuse featured perhaps the best player in the land that year in freshman Carmelo Anthony, the Orange weren’t ranked to begin the season and weren’t Tournament favorites in March. Flash forward to 2010, and the scenario seems eerily similar. Syracuse lost its three leading scorers from last season’s squad in Jonny Flynn, Eric Devendorf and Paul Harris, and the outlook seemed bleak for the Orange in what was expected to be another tough year in the Big East. Head coach Jim Boeheim’s squad was ranked 25th before the season in the USA Today coaches poll—and was left out altogether by the AP—after a shocking loss at home to Division II Le Moyne in a preseason game. Then Wes Johnson got on the court. Johnson, a 6-foot-7 transfer from Iowa State, had to sit out the entire 2008-2009 season due to the NCAA’s transfer rules—but he was well worth the wait. The junior has been stellar for the Orange this season, leading the team in both points and rebounds with 16.0 and 8.4 per game, respectively, earning him Big East Player of the Year honors. Perhaps more importantly, his unmatched athleticism and length at the small forward position have made him a perfect fit for Boeheim’s signature 2-3 zone, as Johnson’s ability to recover quickly and close down on outside shooters has contributed to Syracuse’s formidable defense. See ’Cuse on page 18
(8) Gonzaga (9) Florida St. (5) Butler (12) UTEP (4) Vanderbilt (13) Murray St.
(6) Xavier (11) Minnesota
SALT LAKE CITY
(3) Pittsburgh (14) Oakland (7) BYU (10) Florida (2) Kansas St. (15) North Texas
WEST
the chronicle | 11
EAST
(1) Kentucky (16) East Tennessee St. (8) Texas (9) Wake Forest (5) Temple (12) Cornell (4) Wisconsin
SYRACUSE
(13) Wofford
(6) Marquette (11) Washington (3) New Mexico (14) Montana (7) Clemson (10) Missouri
MPION
(2) West Virginia (15) Morgan St.
(1) Duke (16) Arkansas-PB
the case for...
KENTUCKY by Matt Levenberg THE CHRONICLE
Every past national champion has proven it can win a game in a variety of different ways—be it by virtue of offense, defense or other various intangibles like excellent coaching or the Herculean abilities of star players. When measured by any of these tests, Kentucky passes with flying colors. Offensively, the Wildcats average 79.4 points per game, best in the SEC. If Kentucky isn’t slowed offensively, the Wildcats have proven unbeatable this season. When the SEC champions score at least 70 points or more, they are 29-0. Balance has been a calling card of head coach John Calipari’s squad this year, as four Wildcats average double figures in scoring. Freshman phenom John Wall averages 16.9 points and over six assists per game. The prolific point guard has scored at least 11 points in all but two games this season. Wall has shown that he can win games with his defense as well. Rewind the clocks back to February 20—when Vanderbilt trailed Kentucky at home by one point with under ten seconds left. Commodore guard John Jenkins attempted a game-winning 3-pointer, but Wall would have none of it. The freshman quickly elevated, blocked the shot attempt and grabbed it out of the air to seal the Wildcats’ victory. Wall was the face of the top recruiting class in the country, but he’s found a strong complement down low. Fellow freshman DeMarcus Cousins, a 6-foot11 forward, has emerged as a potential lottery pick with his 15.3 points and 10.1 rebounds per game. Cousins has shown that he can carry the team when Wall is cold from the perimeter. Like clockwork, Cousins has scored 19 points in each game when Wall failed to reach double-digits. See kentucky on page 17
the case for...
DUKE
by Josh Hammer
(8) California (9) Louisville (5) Texas A&M (12) Utah St. (4) Purdue (13) Siena
HOUSTON
(6) Notre Dame (11) Old Dominion (3) Baylor (14) Sam Houston St. (7) Richmond
SOUTH
(10) St. Mary’s (2) Villanova (15) Robert Morris
THE CHRONICLE
Enough talk about Duke’s “Big Three.” It’s time to start talking about the Blue Devils’ new “Core Four.” The rise of center Brian Zoubek has been well-publicized over the past month—the sevenfooter has averaged over nine rebounds per game since his 16-point, 17-rebound effort against Maryland Feb. 13. With Zoubek providing a dominant presence on the boards to complement Duke’s high-scoring perimeter attack, the Blue Devils are in good shape to cut down the nets once more this season—this time in Indianapolis April 5. Featuring head coach Mike Krzyzewski’s most balanced offensive attack since his most recent Final Four team in 2004, this 2010 Duke squad is poised to make a deep NCAA Tournament run. Point guard Jon Scheyer has displayed uncanny will and determination all year, and he has emerged as a true 3-point-shooting, driving, passdistributing triple threat. ACC Tournament MVP Kyle Singler is playing lights-out basketball at the most important time of the year, dispelling the popular notion that Krzyzewski’s heavy reliance on his top players leads to them burning out in March. And guard Nolan Smith has been remarkably consistent all season, both offensively and defensively. Not since 2004—when senior point guard Chris Duhon, sophomore shooting guard J.J. Redick and one-and-done freshman swingman Luol Deng led the Blue Devils—has Duke featured such a dangerous offensive trio. Critics will point to Duke’s thin backcourt. In reality, the backcourt issue hasn’t been a problem. Scheyer and Smith are each averaging 35-plus minutes per game, yet show no signs whatsoever of wearing down. Andre Dawkins has displayed some flashes of slashing See duke on page 15
12 | THURSDAY, MARCH 18, 2010
NCAA TOURNAMENT PREVIEW
THE CASE FOR THE FIELD
Rash of upsets show No. 1 seeds are as beatable as ever by Vignesh Nathan THE CHRONICLE
There are 64 teams in the NCAA tournament. Out of those squads, only four can lay claim to a No. 1 seed. So, what are the chances of any of the other 60 teams taking home the title? 60 out of 64, right? Probably not—Syracuse, Kansas, Kentucky and Duke were given top seeds for a reason. However, don’t let this mislead you—this year’s tournament field has the potential for steep competition, upsets and everybody’s favorite—Cinderella stories. Indeed, you can bet this year’s NCAA Tournament will be as competitive as they come. Don’t expect a perfect No.1 seed-laden Final Four like that of 2008, and here’s why. For starters, look at the volatility of this year’s AP Division I poll. In addition to the current top four, teams such as Texas, Michigan State, Villanova and Purdue have spent time within these elite ranks. Other teams such as Kansas State, Ohio State and West Virginia have been regulars among the Top-10. At any moment, any one of these teams could steal the spotlight as national title contenders. Scottie Reynolds might just lead his experienced Villanova team on
yet another run to the Final Four. National Player of the Year candidate Evan Turner may carry Ohio State all the way to Indianapolis. The Kansas State Wildcats showed they could compete with, and nearly beat, the nation’s best team when they lost to No. 1 Kansas this past January in overtime. Who says the fourth time isn’t the charm? It could be. Truthfully, any of these teams could do it. But there are teams outside the Top-10 that could also make deep runs this March. Take a look at some of the lower seeds and their accomplishments this year. Maryland shared this year’s regular season ACC championship with the Blue Devils. Louisville beat Syracuse not once, but twice. Georgetown embarrassed Duke earlier this year. Pittsburgh finished second in the Big East standings, ahead of teams such as the Hoyas and West Virginia. If nothing else, Championship Week proved the true potential of the field teams. Various conference tournaments such as the Big East’s were full of upsets and upset bids. Just to name a few—Georgetown beat Syracuse, Marquette beat Villanova and Cincinnati was tantalizingly close to beating West Virginia, the eventual champions.
In the Big 12, Texas A&M kept it close against Kansas. With the SEC tournament crown at stake, Mississippi State took Kentucky into overtime and lost by just a point. Remember, come tournament time, the winner of each game is determined by a 40-minute performance. Sure, the No. 1 teams might be better overall, but these field teams have proven that over the course of those forty minutes, they can compete with anybody in the nation. And even after all of the abovementioned teams, there are even those schools that rarely ever grab the national spotlight. This year, Old Dominion clinched a berth when it won the Colonial Athletic Association Conference. Though no team from the CAA has ever won the NCAA Tournament, the Monarchs showed some talent this season when they beat Georgetown in December. Honestly, nobody will expect Old Dominion to go far. Those prognosticators are probably right. But don’t let that decision come without an afterthought—the history of this tournament is full of surprises, which only adds to the excitement. Think back to the Big Dance in 2006, when a little-known George Mason squad out of Fairfax, Va.,
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Austin Freeman and Georgetown received a No. 3 seed to the NCAA Tournament. made a surprise run to the Final Four after defeating powerhouses Michigan State, North Carolina and Connecticut. In 2008, Davidson, led by current NBA rookie Stephen Curry, knocked off Gonzaga, Georgetown and Wisconsin before losing to eventual national champion Kansas in the Elite Eight. So yes, John Wall might be the first pick in the NBA Draft. Kan-
sas might boast the nation’s best center in Cole Aldrich. Syracuse may have the best record in a conference dripping with talent. But the last 18 weeks have shown that they are all fallible. And starting today, if they so much as stutter for a moment, you can bet that one of the teams from the field will rise to the occasion and watch them fall.
THE CHRONICLE
THURSDAY, MARCH 18, 2010 | 13
KEYS from page 8
BOYKIN from page 9
slightly more than two-thirds of the team’s points this season. Zoubek, senior Lance Thomas and the Plumlee brothers (Miles and Mason) need to chip in—even just a basket or two a game—for Duke to pose a threat to an elite team such as Villanova.
has really allowed players to play their game, what fits their talents best.... He likes players to be free, to play their game within his system. TC: We’ve noticed that there’s been a spurt of transfers [away from Duke] lately. I was wondering if you could explain why you think that keeps happening? JB: I was asked so many times, “How could you leave Duke?� But I think what people need to understand is that as you look at Duke’s bench, those players could be a main contributor on another team. Going in, you don’t understand the sacrifice you have to make. You dream about playing at Duke, like I did. I dreamed of being like Shane Battier, to have that type of career [where] I’d be one of the featured players. I felt if I could have the scholarship to play at Duke, why couldn’t I be one of those players? I think it’s hard to say, “Be patient and keep working hard� when you only have four years. I think if you do leave, the lessons that you learn there are priceless. The lessons that I
4. Protect the Ball The Blue Devils turned the ball over 12.9 times per game during their first six ACC games and won just four of those matchups. In possibly its worst game of the season, an 89-77 defeat to Georgetown Jan. 30, Duke coughed up the ball 15 times. In the 13 games since that lopsided loss to the Hoyas, however, Duke has turned the ball over just 9.7 times per game and has lost only once during that stretch. Turnovers hurt a team twofold: They waste possessions, and many times, they give opponents easy baskets. 5. Capitalize on the Freebies One of the most underrated, but most important aspects of this year’s Duke team, is that it is full of exceptional free-throw shooters. As a team, Duke shot 76.3 percent from the charity stripe, good for seventh in the nation and best in the ACC. In the last couple of minutes of a game, the Blue Devils have knocked down clutch free throws and prevented their opponents from starting a comeback. During the NCAA Tournament, when teams become even more desperate and free throws even more important, the Big Three have the skill and composure to knock down free throws when the team needs them most. Smith shoots 78 percent from the free throw line, Singler shoots 80 percent and Scheyer a league-best 88 percent. Keeping up that excellent free throw percentage will significantly help the Blue Devils come Tournament time.
SAM SHEFT/CHRONICLE FILE PHOTO
Duke’s top trio of Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith gets to the foul line frequently, and all three shoot better than 75 percent from the line.
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learned at Duke I still use today. I worked as hard as I could to be in that sevenman rotation. The reality of it is, everyone can play and everyone deserves to play, but everyone can’t play. That’s just the reality. Before I left, for me, getting mononucleosis made the decision for me. Before that, I had it in my head that I was going to be the type of player that would have to be content [with] giving the team as much as I could in practice. I was content with that. My family noticed a change, but the way I thought was, I’m a part of something bigger than myself and Coach K obviously knows what he’s doing. What he has me doing is what I should do for this program to be successful. I was willing to do that, but getting sick and having to miss that year made the decision for me. If not for that, I would have continued to be there and be a role player, and I would never probably have known [laughs] what it felt like to have a 20-and-10 game and help a team build its program back to the best in the conference. I think I still would’ve been happy [at Duke], but it’s hard to tell.
14 | THURSDAY, MARCH 18, 2010
NCAA TOURNAMENT PREVIEW
FANAROFF from page 4 best offensive rebounder in the country, that opponents almost never make a 3-pointer against Duke’s defense, that they score more points per possession than any other team—we focus on the weaknesses. The Blue Devils don’t have a dominant athlete. They’re too reliant on three scorers. They don’t have enough of a post presence on offense. They’re susceptible to aggressive driving guards. And maybe that’s all true, but it hasn’t mattered this season, because the goal of basketball is not to get the most dunks or block the most shots or run the fastest fast break. Instead, the goal is to score more points than your opponent over the same number of possessions. And in scoring points and preventing their opponents from doing so, the Blue Devils’ strengths more than make up for their weaknesses. On offense, Duke does rely heavily on three players. Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith take just about 75 percent of Duke’s shots. But any team would kill to have them because they never turn the ball over and aver-
age just about one point per shot attempt. It makes sense to let your best offensive players shoot the most. And while Zoubek isn’t the flashiest big man, he’s among the most effective at creating scoring opportunities for his higher-scoring teammates. Nearly a quarter of Duke’s missed shots end up in Zoubek’s hands as offensive rebounds. A full 40 percent of Duke’s missed shots turn into offensive rebounds for someone on the team. It seems obvious, but an offensive rebound is hugely valuable; it gives Singler, Scheyer and Smith another opportunity to shoot. A typical Duke possession might go like this: Smith shoots a mid-range jumper, which rims out. Zoubek awkwardly controls the rebound and passes back out to Scheyer. Four passes later, Smith shoots another mid-range jumper, which goes in. The end result is two points. Meanwhile, a typical Kentucky possession might start with a steal at halfcourt by John Wall and end in a reverse alley-oop by Eric Bledsoe. The end result is still two points, but any observer would probably peg Kentucky as the better offensive team. But the computer doesn’t pick and choose possessions to analyze. The computer doesn’t use an eye test. The
computer sees one possession for Duke and one possession for Kentucky, and two points for each team. And the computer sees that over the course of the season, Duke scores more points per possession than anyone else, largely because grabbing offensive rebounds and avoiding turnovers allow the Blue Devils to take so many shots. Duke has shot the ball 2,045 times, seventh-most in the country, despite only playing at the 158th-fastest pace. The same thing goes for defense. The subjective observer sees the blocked shots of Kansas’s Cole Aldrich and the steals of Syracuse’s Andy Rautins. Then he watches Duke get abused by backdoor cuts and dribble penetration by Georgetown and N.C. State. But the computer sees only possessions and points allowed over the course of the whole season, and it knows that Duke is ranked fourth in the country in points allowed per possession because the Blue Devils prevent their opponents from taking and making 3-pointers. It doesn’t conform to our preconceived notions of what makes a college basketball team great, but when you remove those preconceived notions, it becomes obvious that Duke’s style has worked all season long. There’s no reason to believe that all of a sudden it’ll stop working in the Tournament. So don’t believe your eyes. Do believe the numbers. There’s no guarantee that Duke will win the national championship—anything can happen in a single elimination tournament—but the data says the Blue Devils should be the favorites.
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Brian Zoubek’s rebounding ability, especially on the offensive end, has helped Duke become one of the nation’s most efficient squads.
THE CHRONICLE
THURSDAY, MARCH 18, 2010 | 15
DUKE from page 11
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ability, indicating he might be more than a Taylor King-type spot-up shooter. Duke’s backcourt may be thin, but it is actually one of the nation’s best. Perhaps most importantly, Duke’s offense is balanced enough to withstand a disastrous effort from one of its top players come tournament time. Specifically, the kind of effort that doomed the Blue Devils last year—when Gerald Henderson went 1-of-14 from the field and Villanova crushed Duke by 23 points in the Sweet 16. With Zoubek’s rebounding providing the Blue Devils with many second-chance opportunities, and with the bevy of scorers at Krzyzewski’s disposal, this year’s Duke team seems fully capable of compensating for a poor performance by one of its best players. Lastly, Blue Devil fans should thank their lucky stars that the NCAA Tournament selection committee gave Duke such a clear path to the Final Four. A potentially scary second-round matchup against Rick Pitino’s talented Louisville team notwithstanding, Duke could draw a plummeting Purdue team lacking its most talented player, as well as a No. 2-seeded Villanova squad that has dropped five of its last seven games heading into the NCAA Tournament. Alternatively, the Blue Devils could face No. 5-seeded Texas A&M in the Sweet 16 and No. 3-seeded Baylor in the Elite 8, which would essentially amount to two true road games since both would be played in Houston, Texas. However, Duke matches up well against the Aggies’ guard-based lineup, and Blue Devil defensive stalwart Lance Thomas promises to be an imposing matchup prob-
lem for Bears center Ekpe Udoh. Any path to the Final Four is going to be riddled with tough games and many uncertainties, but Duke’s road is remarkably easier than that of Kansas—which the selection committee nonetheless dubbed the best of the No. 1 seeds. With a manageable road to Indianapolis and an emerging rebounding force in Zoubek to accompany the Big Three’s offensive production, Duke stands a good chance of bringing home the storied program’s fourth national championship and sending this year’s senior class out on top.
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Duke collapsed when Gerald Henderson struggled terribly against Villanova in last year’s Sweet 16.
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GUARDS from page 6 less than nine points per game, a scoring jump that has made him one of the more dangerous guards in the league. Smith is capable of driving to the hoop or knocking down the trey, and he showcased his ability to take over a game against the Yellow Jackets while Scheyer struggled. In that game, he scored 11 of Duke’s first 15 points, giving the Blue Devils a lead that they would never relinquish. Smith would end up with 16 points, a near-average tally for him during a consistent season: The junior has scored less than 10 points only twice while scoring 20 or more 14 times. “I’ve been growing up a lot all year, gaining confidence,� Smith said. “I’ve really become confident in myself for the future.� It is clear that one of the keys to success for the Blue Devils as they look forward to the Big Dance is the performance of the starting guards, but how well the team performs could very well depend on the degree to which fa-
tigue factors in with Scheyer and Smith. Head coach Mike Krzyzewski and both players have downplayed any fatigue, but the fact remains that Smith has averaged 35.1 minutes per game, while Scheyer has averaged 36.6, potentially scary stats for a team that needs to stay fresh and energized to have any chance of winning the national championship. Luckily for Duke, a potential solution to the fatigue situation spends the majority of every game sitting on the bench. Freshman Andre Dawkins skipped his last year of high school to come to Duke early, and he made an almost immediate impact, providing valuable minutes early in the season and giving the team a multi-tooled weapon capable of knocking down the open three or slicing his way to the basket. But midway through the season, Dawkins had to deal with the death of his sister, a devastating loss for anyone, but especially for a young player. His performance, and subsequently his minutes, suffered. As his shots stopped falling and he spent more time on the bench, Scheyer and Smith were forced to shoulder more of the burden in the backcourt. But Sunday yielded a glimpse of a player who may be ready to break
out. After missing his first 3-point attempt, Dawkins hit a three, knocked down a long jumper and then drove to the basket for a thunderous one-handed dunk. At this point in the season, the importance of such a performance cannot be overstated. “Andre gave us a huge lift because Nolan got a second foul early [against Georgia Tech],� Krzyzewski said. “Once he was in there, I kept Nolan out the whole time. Usually I would bring Nolan, Jon and Kyle back and trust them that they wouldn’t commit a third foul, but Andre was doing a good job and contributed greatly.� Nolan Smith had high praise for his the effort of his young teammate as well. “Andre has been progressing all year, getting better and better,� Smith said. “He’s playing great defense now, and when he gets an open look, he’s going to shoot the ball.� As much as the increased frontcourt depth and the performance of Kyle Singler have helped Duke get to this point, the chances of a national title run will heavily depend on the three players occupying the backcourt. If Andre Dawkins can take his newfound confidence into the Tournament and Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith maintain their high level of play, Duke students have reason to hope for the raising of a fourth banner in Cameron Indoor Stadium.
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KENTUCKY from page 11 Playing in the shadow of Wall is 6-foot1 guard Eric Bledsoe. The under-recognized Bledsoe is a great three-point shooter, and the guard has exploded for at least 23 points three times this season. While there are concerns about the Wildcats’ inexperience, veteran leadership comes in the form of junior Patrick Patterson. Patterson was first-team all-SEC last season after averaging 17.9 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. With the better supporting cast, Patterson’s production has dropped slightly to 14.7 points and 7.3 rebounds per game this season, but his contributions as a leader cannot be overstated. On the sidelines, Kentucky is guided by Calipari, who has recent experince in the second week of the tournament. Calipari has
THURSDAY, MARCH 18, 2010 | 17
reached the Elite Eight five times, including three out of the last four years with Memphis. Just two years ago, Calipari’s Tigers reached the championship game behind star Derrick Rose, but their championship hopes were dashed by Mario Chalmers’s heroic three to push the game into overtime. Calipari was unable to seal the deal in San Antonio, but his Kentucky squad is more well-equipped than any of his teams in Memphis. The Wildcats enter the tournament on a roll after winning a thriller over Mississippi State to seal the SEC championship. Kentucky has won 12 of its last 13 games, including four against ranked teams. On Saturday, the Wildcats stomped Tennessee by 29 points on a neutral court. If they can carry this momentum into the Big Dance, they will be an extremely difficult out, and will have a good a chance as any No. 1 seed to become the 2010 champions.
KANSAS from page 10 even 2008, when it cut down the nets. Most notably, the Jayhawks boast a regular rotation 10 players deep that can adjust to all different playing styles. The multi-faceted offense ranks second in overall scoring among Tournament teams with 81.8 points per game. Efficiency guru Ken Pomeroy estimates both Kansas’s offense and defense to be in the top five nationally, an accomplishment only matched by Duke this season. Aldrich will be a lottery pick in June and has controlled the paint with his 6-foot-11 frame to the tune of 9.9 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per game, second in the Big 12 in both categories. On the perimeter, the Jayhawks hit over 40 percent of their 3-pointers. While Collins and Henry are responsible for most
of those, sharpshooter Tyrel Reed has become a force off the bench, hitting over 46 percent of his shots from long range. Henry, or “X� as he has become known, provides the glue between both offensive styles. On any given possession he can slash and kick to Collins for a 3-pointer, free up Aldrich in the post with a drive or take it to the rim himself. Kansas is less flashy than its main competitors, and thus lacks some of the flair that has gotten Kentucky and Syracuse so much publicity over the course of the regular season. But don’t sleep on the Jayhawks—they have a combination of talent and experience that no team can match. A common piece of bracket-filling advice is to avoid simply “picking with the chalk,� or picking all the favorites. Follow that all you want outside the Midwest Regional, but remember: Rock, chalk, Jayhawk.
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’CUSE from page 10 Johnson suffered an injury against Providence in league play after taking a nasty fall, but the forward was impressive in Syracuse’s Big East quarterfinal loss to Georgetown, a game in which he had 24 points and seven rebounds. When healthy, Johnson is quite possibly the best small forward in the Tournament, and he will prove a matchup problem to any team the Orange might face. To complement Johnson, the quality of Syracuse’s rotation leaves the Orange capable of overcoming nearly any conceivable situation in a Tournament setting. Boeheim has stated all season that his team features seven starters, and each of the Big East Coach of the Year’s top seven has erupted at one point or another this year. While Carmelo Anthony had Gerry McNamara as the off guard to keep defenses honest, Wes Johnson has Andy Rautins. Boasting a skill set not unlike that of Jon Scheyer, Rautins is a savvy senior—and the Orange’s main threat from beyond the arc. Rautins’s lightning-quick delivery enables him to shoot in the tightest of spaces, and a big part of the Orange’s nearly unblemished road record can be attributed to Rautins’s consistent production. The senior has scored 20 points or more in five away games in Big East play, including 26 at Georgetown. In the post, the Orange rotate big men Arinze Onuaku, Rick Jackson, and Kris Joseph. Jackson has had the best year of his career, and his growth as an offensive player, along with Onuaku, has given Syracuse two viable options inside. Syracuse faithful will be concerned about the health of Onuaku after the redshirt senior went down clutching his right knee in the Orange’s recent loss to Georgetown, but Onuaku is now listed as day-to-day with a quadriceps strain. If Onuaku can return quickly, he solidifies the inside of Syracuse’s zone, and Boeheim’s defense will prove a tough test for any team to prepare for in a short time—for a recent example of how difficult that adjustment is, look at Duke’s struggles against Miami’s 2-3 matchup zone in the ACC Tournament semifinal. The only Tournament weakness the Orange exhibit is their free throw shooting. As a team, Syracuse shoots 67.1 percent, good for only 227th in the nation at the line. In an end-ofgame scenario, the Orange may have troubles closing out their opponents, but if Syracuse can play to its potential, the Orange won’t leave too many teams within striking distance.
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THE CHRONICLE
THURSDAY, MARCH 18, 2010 | 19
staff picks
or: another reason to join our pool DUKE FINISH
M.O.P.
Sabreena
CHAMPS
Kyle Singler
San Diego St. over Tenn.
Gabe
FINAL 4
Da’Sean Butler
Wisconsin over Kentucky
Andy
FINAL 4
Sherron Collins
Siena over Purdue
Taylor
FINAL 4
Sherron Collins
Wake Forest over Temple
Jscholl
ELITE 8
Sherron Collins
UTEP over Butler
Frankie
CHAMPS
Kyle Singler
BYU over Kansas State
Hon
FINAL 4
John Wall
MSU over Kansas
WRob
CHAMPS
Kyle Sinlger
St. Mary’s over ‘Nova
STAFFER
NCAA CHAMP
SLEEPER
UPSET SPECIAL
1ST NO. 1 TO LOSE
sportsstaff sports staff Editor: Gabe Starosta Managing Editor: Sabreena Merchant Photo Editor: Michael Naclerio Sports Photo Editor: Ian Soileau Recruitment Chairs: Taylor Doherty and Andy Moore Associate Editors: Dan Ahrens, Ryan Claxton, Harrison Comfort, Caroline Fairchild, Kevin Fishner, Laura Keeley, Jason Palmatary, Scott Rich, Jeff Scholl, Nicholas Schwartz, Felicia Tan Senior Associate Editors: Stephen Allan, Ben Cohen, Joe Drews, Alex Fanaroff, Will Flaherty, Archith Ramkumar, David Ungvary First-Year Writers: Rachel Apostoles, Chris Cusack, Tom Gieryn, Alex Krinsky, Patricia Lee, Jacob Levitt, Matt Levenberg, Andy Margius, Vignesh Nathan, Stuart Price, Tim Visutipol, Danny Vinik Photographers: Lawson Kurtz, Larsa Al-Omaishi, Christina Peña, Caroline Rodriguez, Samantha Sheft, Zachary Tracer, Xavier Watson, Melissa Yeo Special thanks to: Chronicle Editor Will Robinson, Managing Editor Hon Lung Chu, Design Editor Charlie Lee, News Photo Editor Courtney Douglas and The Chronicle’s multimedia staff The Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament Preview is a sports supplement published annually by The Chronicle. It can be read online at: www.dukechronicle.com