Mar. 15, 2012 NCAA Preview

the chronicle

ncaa tournament preview

march 15, 2012

BIG BLUE REMATCH?

MELISSA YEO/THE CHRONICLE

Twenty years after The Shot, Duke faces a potential Elite Eight matchup with Kentucky

Men’s NCAA Tournament Preview

2 | THURSDAY, MARCH 15, 2012

sportsstaff sports staff Editor: Chris Cusack Managing Editor: Tom Gieryn Editor-elect: Andrew Beaton Online Editor: Scott Rich Photo Editor: Chris Dall Recruitment Chairs: Patricia Lee and Matt Levenberg Senior Associate Editors: Ryan Claxton, Harrison Comfort, Matt Levenberg, Andy Moore, Vignesh Nathan, Jason Palmatary, Jeff Scholl Associate Editors: Andrew Beaton, Sarah Elsakr, Alex Krinsky, Patricia Lee, Jacob Levitt, Andy Margius, Danny Nolan, Steven Slywka, Tim Visutipol, Alex Young Staff Writers: Michael Baker, Gaurav Bhat, Brady Buck, Daniel Carp, Bobby Colton, Maureen Dolan, Zac Elder, Valentine Esposito, Jackie Klauberg, Shiva Kothari, Vaishnavi Krishnan, Dawei Liu, Hunter Nisonoff, Lopa Rahman, Paul Pisani, Matt Pun, Giancarlo Riotto, Mike Schreiner Special thanks to: Photo Editor Melissa Yeo, Ryan Claxton, Patricia Lee and Steven Slywka ———————— The men’s basketball NCAA tournament preview is a sports supplement published annually by The Chronicle. It can be read online at: www.dukechronicle.com ———————— Founded in 2007 and renamed in 2011, the Blue Zone is the sports section’s daily presence online: www.sports.chronicleblogs.com ———————— Follow us on Twitter at @dukebasketball

THE CHRONICLE

What’s inside

3

LEARNING THE ROPES

5

THORNTON’S IMPACT

7

How Austin Rivers has learned to play in Coach K’s system

The sophomore has changed the defense from the point

MILES’ MARK The senior has improved his play recently, but is it enough?

10-11 13

4

DECLINING DEFENSE

6

A LOOK TO THE WEST

9

Can Duke succeed without a Singler-caliber wing defender?

Michigan State and Missouri highlight the Phoenix field

EAST COAST BIAS Can Syracuse survive without Fab Melo in March?

BLASTS FROM THE PAST The Blue Devils and Coach K have a history with many of the South’s teams

MISSOURI MADNESS North Carolina highlights the weakest of the four regions

14

WHO ELSE IS LEFT? Why picking against the top seeds is your best strategy CHRONICLE GRAPHIC BY ADDISON CORRIHER

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Men’s NCAA Tournament Preview

THE CHRONICLE

THURSDAY, MARCH 15, 2012 | 3

AUSTIN RIVERS

BREAKING DOWN DUKE

THE EVOLUTION OF AUSTIN

by Andrew Beaton THE CHRONICLE

L

ike any star basketball player, Austin Rivers has grown accustomed to hearing his name announced among the starters. It has happened every game dating back to third grade, he said.

But it was a feeling of alarm, not nostalgia, that registered when his name was not called Jan. 19 against Wake Forest.

After a five-game span in which the freshman averaged 8.6 points per game,

Rivers began the game on the bench, forced to confront a midseason rut lowlighted by a season-low four-point performance against Clemson.

“Personally, I think that was my turning point in the season,” Rivers said. “They said, ‘Austin you’re coming off the bench,’ and they just wanted to see how I reacted.”

The message was a brief but strong one as Rivers led Duke with 32 minutes against the Demon Deacons, breaking out of his funk with a 20-point performance, making

3-of-4 3-pointers.

His progression since then has turned him into the focal point of the Blue Devil offense, a development highlighted by his game-winning 3-pointer to defeat archrival North Carolina at the Dean E. Smith Center Feb. 8. The buzzer-beater gave Duke an 85-84 victory and capped a season-high 29-point performance in which he made 6-of-10 attempts from beyond the arc.

Although the shot itself was a signal of

his progression and trusted role within the offense, what impressed his coach most was how he dealt with the glamor of the moment, never allowing the bucket to get to his head.

“He started to play at a higher level before the North Carolina game,” head coach Mike Krzyzewski said. “When a youngster hits a shot like that—not many people hit a shot like that—it can hurt SEE RIVERS ON PAGE 17

NATE GLENCER AND MELISSA YEO/THE CHRONICLE

Austin Rivers’ freshman season hit a low Jan. 19, when head coach Mike Krzyzewski benched him against Wake Forest. He exploded afterward, though, highlighted by his game-winner at North Carolina.

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Men’s NCAA Tournament Preview

4 | THURSDAY, MARCH 15, 2012

BREAKING DOWN DUKE

THE CHRONICLE

THE DEFENSE

Duke aims to halt defensive decline in tourney

by Jason Palmatary THE CHRONICLE

Duke has been a No. 1 seed in the previous two NCAA tournaments, but did not earn a similar distinction entering this year’s postseason. There are many reasons for this drop in seeding, not least the departures of offensive standouts Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler and Kyrie Irving. But the bigger regression has come on the other end of the floor, as this year’s team has also failed to achieve the level of defensive prowess typical of Duke teams past.

In nearly all of the major statistical categories, the Blue Devils have been significantly worse on the defensive end this season.

Looking at traditional metrics such as points allowed per game, Duke is giving up an average of 68.5 points, ranking 220th out of 345 Division I teams. By comparison, the two previous seasons saw the Blue Devils yield 64.7 and 61.0 points per game, good for 78th and 26th in the nation, respectively.

Defensive field goal percentage tells a similar story. After forcing team to shoot 40.5 percent and 40.1 percent the past two seasons, both of which ranked in the top 50 nationally, Duke has been allowing teams to convert on 43.3 percent of their shots from the field, which ranks 183rd in Division I and 10th in the ACC. Despite these general defensive shortcomings, the Blue Devils have been successful defending the 3-point line this season. The tight man-to-man defense that has been a hallmark of head coach Mike Krzyzewski’s coaching style has allowed them to close out well on shooters. Opponents are shooting just 31.7 percent from downtown, ranking 59th in the country, better than last year’s 32.4-percent mark, but not as good as the national championship team’s clip of 28.4 percent, which was second in Division I. Further exacerbating these defensive shortcomings is the fact that the Blue Devils are relinquishing 11.7 offensive rebounds per game, a dismal 250th in the country and 10th in the ACC. Although that number is an improvement over last

CHRONICLE GRAPHIC BY CHRIS DALL AND ADDISON CORRIHER

year’s average of 12.8 offensive rebounds allowed, it shows how teams are victimizing Duke with second chance opportunities even after the defense performs adequately on the initial possession.

Even the more advanced statistical analysis that has been popularized by the rise of

statistical analysis over recent years paints a picture of the Blue Devils’ defensive woes.

While points per game and rebounding can be affected by a team’s pace of play—higher tempo teams will yield more possessions thus allowing for more opportunities to score and grab rebounds for both

teams—other metrics account for this. This is revealing in light of Duke’s statistical regression on the defensive end despite playing a slower pace than last season, averaging 68.8 possessions per 40 minutes compared SEE DEFENSE ON PAGE 15

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Men’s NCAA Tournament Preview

THE CHRONICLE

BREAKING DOWN DUKE

THURSDAY, MARCH 15, 2012 | 5

TYLER THORNTON

Defensive-minded Thornton takes the reins

by Scott Rich THE CHRONICLE

Point guard is a particularly important position in March, but Duke does not have a floor general that can fill up a traditional stat sheet. According to some of his teammates, though, Tyler Thornton’s value to the Blue Devils is not measured by points or rebounds.

Following Duke’s 91-73 victory over Wake Forest, in which Thornton tallied a career-high eight assists, Marshall Plumlee said in a Duke Blue Planet video that evaluating Thornton properly required new statistical framework, highlighted by “hustle plays,” “defensive stops” and “crowd pleasers.”

On a team that has often struggled with intangibles this season, Thornton’s defense, hustle and energy have been important contributions to the Blue Devils.

So while he may not put up many points or dish out an awe-inspiring number of assists, his tendency to accumulate Plumlee’s alternative statistics make him an invaluable cog in Duke’s March machine.

“Coming into the season, the coaching staff just told me to be myself, and that’s probably been the easiest thing for me to do,” Thornton said. “Be myself, not try to think I have to do certain things to have to be on the court.”

Thornton’s winning mentality and consistently excellent defensive effort have always been the staples of his skill set.

“Tyler has done a great job of being a pest defensively,” junior guard Seth Curry said. “He handles the ball a lot for us, running play calls. That has allowed me to be off the ball more, looking to score. That’s been great for the team.”

While his offensive impact is not conspicuous—he averages just 4.0 points and 1.9 assists per game—he has been a steady and consistent floor general throughout the season, proficient in organizing the Blue Devil offense while minimizing turnovers. That has, in turn, allowed teammate Curry to move into a role more suited to his skill set, as an offguard not tasked with primary ball-han-

dling responsibilities.

Despite his intangible contributions, Thornton’s role fluctuated throughout the first half of the season. The sophomore started sporadically during the early-season schedule, with just a few performances standing out from a largely pedestrian résumé. It was Thornton’s two clutch 3-pointers that propelled the Blue Devils to the Maui Invitational championship over Kansas Nov. 23, and he scored 12 points in just 17 minutes against Western Michigan in December.

Thornton’s playing time diminished as Quinn Cook and Andre Dawkins earned places in the starting lineup with good stretches of midseason play.

But inconsistency eventually cost both Cook and Dawkins their starting assignments, and Thornton was thrust back into the lineup.

The sophomore regained his role as a starter against Virginia Tech at the beginning of February and has not relinquished his hold on the point guard role. Beginning with his start against Virginia Tech, he averaged 25 minutes per game during the season’s final stretch and continued to show a propensity for clutch offense, including a late 3-pointer that keyed Duke’s Feb. 8 comeback at North Carolina and a 13-point performance that helped carry the Blue Devils in a close ACC quarterfinal matchup against the Hokies.

Most importantly, though, the consistent playing time allowed Thornton to continuing developing what might be his best trait—leadership. “[The coaching staff] wanted me to be out there, to be a leader on both ends of the floor, communicating with them on the bench while I’m on the floor communicating with my teammates,” Thornton said.

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TYLER SEUC/THE CHRONICLE

Thornton may not make a big impact in the stat book, but he has made his mark on the defensive end.

6 | THURSDAY, MARCH 15, 2012

Men’s NCAA Tournament Preview

Scoring 17.6 points per game, Marcus Denmon is one of five Missouri players who averages double figures entering the Big Dance.

THE CHRONICLE

Draymond Green earned Big Ten player of the year honors after averaging a double-double during the regular season, carrying his team to the conference tournament championship and a No. 1 seed.

Who makes it out: Missouri

Sleeper: Memphis

Upset special: Virginia over Florida

WEST PHOENIX

the case for...

All-ACC forward Mike Scott scores 18.1 of Virginia’s 63.1 points per game in Tony Bennett’s iceberg-slow offense.

MICHIGAN STATEby Steven Slywka

W

hat a difference one year can make. Last season Michigan State began the year ranked number two in the country. Yet the Spartans struggled with injuries and inconsistency and limped into the NCAA tournament as a No. 10 seed, eventually falling to UCLA in the first round.

This year’s squad wasn’t expected to do much better. After losing seniors Kalin Lucas and Durrell Summers to graduation, and junior Korie Lucious to transfer, Michigan State was not even

CHRONICLE GRAPHIC BY CHRIS DALL

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Men’s NCAA Tournament Preview

THE CHRONICLE

BREAKING DOWN DUKE

THURSDAY, MARCH 15, 2012 | 7

MILES PLUMLEE

Plumlee emerges down stretch With the brackets finalized last Sunday, the NCAA tournament field is set and people across the nation are laboring over their brackets to find the optimal selections. Several experts have said Duke is a favorite to be upset early this season, due to their defensive numbers and injury questions. Head coach Mike Krzyzewski, however, stressed that the team’s recent performances must be accounted for more than the seasonal statistics. “Current stats are most important,� Krzyzewski said.

This concise response rings true Danny not only for the team as a whole, but also for Miles Plumlee. The senior started in only seven of Duke’s first 25 games, but has since started in each of the past eight contests, averaging 8.5 more minutes per game in that stretch. While the minutes may be no surprise, the offensive and defensive statistics have been.

It’s no secret the Blue Devils shoot a great deal from behind the arc, which means that rebounding is paramount to the success of the team. Since his explosive game against Maryland over a month ago, in which he grabbed 22 missed

Nolan

shots and registered 13 points, Plumlee has averaged 3.8 offensive rebounds per game, a full rebound more than he averaged in the 25 previous games. The forward has also increased his defensive rebounding numbers by an average of two rebounds, meaning he is averaging three more rebounds per game in his elevated role as a starter.

Krzyzewski may have warned to not look into older statistics, but this is not the first time Duke has seen a senior improve his game this late in his career. Brian Zoubek became a household name after his coming-out game against—you guessed it—the Terrapins. In the eight games played following the win, Zoubek averaged nearly identical rebounding numbers to Plumlee. His high level of play continued during the 2010 NCAA tournament, when the Blue Devils took home their fourth national title.

With the striking similarities between Plumlee and Zoubek, does this mean this year’s Duke team will have the same success? After all, the Blue Devils were unable to reach their own conference final only a week ago. The difference lies in the immense defensive improvements that have come since Plumlee was installed in the starting SEE PLUMLEE ON PAGE 15

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SOPHIA PALENBERG/THE CHRONICLE

Senior Miles Plumlee is averaging three more rebounds per game since his 13-point, 22-rebound performance against Maryland.

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Men’s NCAA Tournament Preview

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Men’s NCAA Tournament Preview

THE CHRONICLE Called the most competitive player in the ACC by Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski, Michael Snaer has shown a knack for hitting clutch shots, carrying the Seminoles to an ACC tournament championship.

Who makes it out: Ohio St.

Sleeper:

THURSDAY, MARCH 15, 2012 | 9

Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim will miss star center Fab Melo, but with Kris Joseph, Dion Waiters and Scoop Jardine, the Orange are still in a strong position to contend for a national title.

Vanderbilt

Upset special: West Virginia over Gonzaga

the case for...

I

SYRACUSE

BOSTON

by Nicholas Schwartz

n a Syracuse season shrouded by scandal—with allegations of sexual misconduct by a coach and charges of drug abuse by former players—it seems fitting that the Orange will have to deal with yet another shocking setback in the NCAA tournament.

EAST Averaging 17.6 points and 9.3 rebounds per game, Jared Sullinger makes the Buckeyes a force to be reckoned with as the No. 2 seed in the East.

Syracuse announced Tuesday that Fab Melo, the starting center who missed three games in late January due to an eligibility issue, has been declared academically ineligible for the rest of the year and will miss the entirety of the Big Dance. Prognosticators have since slashed Syracuse’s chances of advancing to the Final Four in New Orleans, but CHRONICLE GRAPHIC BY CHRIS DALL

SEE SYRACUSE ON PAGE 16

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Men’s NCAA Tournament Preview

THE CHRONICLE

Familiar foes a Head coac been nea knocking gan State Marc

Austin Ri Blue Dev averaged

South region filled with future NBA players

by Brady Buck THE CHRONICLE

In pursuit of its fifth national championship, Duke, the No. 2 seed in the South, will face what looks to be a very daunting path to New Orleans through a region that is stockpiled with future NBA players.

Luckily for the reeling Blue Devils (27-6), who have lost two of their past three games, their tournament journey begins close to home in Greensboro, N.C. In two of the past three years, Duke has played in their home state during the first weekend of the tournament and is 4-0 in that span.

In the round of 64, Duke will face Lehigh, who hasn’t lost a game since February 9th. The Mountain Hawks (26-7) earned their way into the dance after upsetting Bucknell in the Patriot League championship game.

The Blue Devils’ vulnerable perimeter defense will face the difficult task of slowing down Lehigh’s

C.J. McCollum, a 6-foot-3 combo guard who averages nearly 22 points per game and is on NBA scouts’ radars. “[McCollum] would be an outstanding guard in our league,” Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski said.

In the paint, the Blue Devils have a significant advantage. With only three players taller than 6-foot-8, Lehigh’s frontcourt may be overwhelmed by Duke’s athletic post players. The Blue Devils’ superior size should allow them to advance to the round of 32 for the fifth consecutive year.

In the third round, Duke would face the winner of Xavier and Notre Dame. Given the Fighting Irish’s lack of all-around athleticism, Notre Dame is a much better matchup for the Blue Devils. Furthermore, the Irish are primarily a SEE SOUTH PREVIEW ON PAGE 15

Men’s NCAA Tournament Preview

THE CHRONICLE

THURSDAY, MARCH 15, 2012 | 11

await in South ch Tom Crean and the Hoosiers have rly unbeatable at home this season, off Kentucky, Ohio State and Michie. But after a rocky road slate, their ch outcome is tough to predict.

Six-foot-11 Perry Jones has recorded a double-double in four of Baylor’s last five games, including a 31-point, 11-rebound performance against Kansas State in the Big 12 tournament.

Who makes it out: Kentucky

Sleeper: Wichita St.

Upset special: South Dakota St. over Baylor

MEMPHIS

vers is the first freshman to lead the vils in scoring since Johnny Dawkins d 18.1 points in the 1982-83 season.

SEC player of the year Anthony Davis is a leading candidate for the John Wooden Award after averaging 14.3 points, 10.0 rebounds and 4.6 blocks during his rookie campaign.

CHRONICLE GRAPHIC BY CHRIS DALL

Wildcats too talented to lose before New Orleans

by Zac Elder THE CHRONICLE

For the second year in a row, Kentucky heads into the NCAA tournament as a No. 1 overall seed. Although they are the fifth youngest team in the nation, the Wildcats boast an impressive 32-2 record, including a 16-0 mark in regular season SEC play.

Led by the nation’s leading shot-blocker, freshman Anthony Davis, Kentucky looks to return to the Final Four, where last year it lost to national champion Connecticut. Davis—recently named the SEC defensive player of the year, freshman of the year and overall player of the year—anchors one of the most effective defensive teams in the country. Fellow freshman Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, a second team All-American, also stabilizes the Wildcat defense and maintains a double-digit scoring average.

Despite starting three freshmen and two sophomores, Kentucky is one of the most ef-

ficient offensive teams in the country, shooting almost 50 percent from the field. Sophomore Doron Lamb provides the Wildcats’ only real threat from the outside, shooting 45.7 percent from 3-point range. Kentucky’s other sophomore starter, power forward Terrence Jones, scores in double figures and pulls down seven rebounds per game. Freshman point guard Marcus Teague, who averages almost five assists per game and rarely turns the ball over, rounds out the Wildcats’ starting five.

Kentucky’s best presence off the bench is senior Darius Miller, one of the few Wildcats in the John Calipari era to finish out a fouryear career in Lexington. But as physical and talented as Kentucky’s six-man rotation is, they are lacking in depth—the team’s only noticable flaw. The Wildcats do not have a deep roster to SEE KENTUCKY ON PAGE 16 MICHAEL NACLERIO [BOTTOM RIGHT] AND CHRONICLE FILE PHOTOS

Men’s NCAA Tournament Preview

12 | THURSDAY, MARCH 15, 2012

THE CHRONICLE

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Men’s NCAA Tournament Preview

THE CHRONICLE

THURSDAY, MARCH 15, 2012 | 13

Tim Hardaway Jr. and teammate Trey Burke form a dangerous backcourt duo that is dangerous on both ends of the floor.

Tyler Zeller won ACC player of the year with a 16.5-point, 9.3-rebound average, making 55.5 percent of his shots from the field.

Who makes it out: North Carolina

Sleeper: N.C. State

the case for...

UNC

T

by Vignesh Nathan

he Tar Heels don’t enjoy being embarrassed, let alone in their home stadium.

North Carolina is, after all, one of the most storied and successful programs in collegiate basketball, with a history of excellence.

The team was even the preseason favorite to win the national title.

So when Duke’s Austin Rivers hit a game-winning 3-pointer to pull the Blue Devils back from a late double-digit deficit in the Dean Dome Feb. 8, the blood flowing through the home locker room began to boil.

It showed. Immediately following that humbling loss, the Tar Heels began to perform with a renewed vigor, rampaging through their remaining regular-season schedule. North Carolina won its final seven regular-season games—

Upset special: Belmont over Georgetown

MIDWEST ST. LOUIS five by double-digit margins. The Tar Heels’most recent loss to No. 17 Florida State in the ACC tournament was certainly disappointing, but could be explained by their lack of junior forward John Henson, a significant offensive contributor who recently garnered ACC defensive player of the year and All-ACC first team honors. Henson is currently listed as “day-to-day� for

Big 12 player of the year Thomas Robinson is the nation’s second-most productive rebounder with 11.8 per game while also notching an average of 17.9 points.

CHRONICLE GRAPHIC BY CHRIS DALL

SEE UNC ON PAGE 17

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Men’s NCAA Tournament Preview

THE CHRONICLE

THE CASE FOR... THE FIELD

THE BEST OF

Play it safe by picking against the top seeds

by Daniel Carp THE CHRONICLE

This season’s national champion does not reside on the top line of a region. Despite all the hype for this year’s top teams, take the field in this year’s big dance.

There is a reason why these games are played—anything can happen. Only one time in history have all four top-seeded teams made it through to the Final Four.

With plenty of teams out there to spoil the fantastic seasons put together by Kentucky, Syracuse, North Carolina and Michigan State, this will not be the second time the four best squads reach the semifinals.

There is a case for taking the field every year, but this year in particular there only two clear-cut favorites to win this tournament. Going into Selection Sunday, only Kentucky and Syracuse had secured top seeds while the rest were up for grabs. And even though these two teams put together dominant stretches throughout the season, the Orange and the Wildcats failed to win their conference tournaments.

Kentucky is talented but lacks experience and chemistry, and to make matters worse, the selection committee did them no favors this year. Despite being the top overall seed in the tournament, the Wildcats are faced with the bracket’s hardest region. They will have to go through teams like Duke and Baylor just to make it to New Orleans, with dangerous opponents such

as Indiana, Wichita State and UNLV waiting for them as well.

The Orange have been poised for deep runs in the past few years but have been too worn down by the rigors of the Big East schedule to cut down the nets. Moreover, Syracuse’s starting center Fab Melo was declared ineligible for the tournament. The Orange’s only regular-season loss came without their star 7-footer.

The field is wide open this year, and the No. 2 seeds have just as much of a case to be crowned champions as the No. 1s do. Many of these teams had laid claim to being a top seed going into the final day of conference tournaments. They have consistently battled for supremacy in the national rankings throughout the season. Look out for teams like Ohio State in the East region, Missouri in the West, Duke in the South and Kansas in the Midwest. These are all teams that are very capable of catching fire and knocking out a top-ranked squad.

Although the rankings stand out when the bracket is released, every team is placed on equal footing when the tournament begins. Basketball statistician Ken Pomeroy recently wrote that the odds of all the No. 1 seeds reaching the Final Four is approximately equal to a No. 16 team upsetting a No. 1.

THE REST

MIZZOU No. 2, WEST (30-4)

OHIO ST No. 2, EAST (27-7)

AP: 3, RPI: 10, Pomeroy: 8 Record vs. RPI top 50: 8-3 Key player: Marcus Denmon Best win: Kansas, Feb. 4

AP: 7, RPI: 7, Pomeroy: 2 Record vs. RPI top 50: 9-6 Key player: Jared Sullinger Best win: Michigan St., Mar. 4

MURRAY ST

KANSAS

No. 6, WEST (30-1) AP: 12, RPI: 27, Pomeroy: 45 Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-0 Key player: Isaiah Canaan Best win: Memphis, Dec. 11

No. 2, MIDWEST (27-6) AP: 6, RPI: 6, Pomeroy: 4 Record vs. RPI top 50: 6-5 Key player: Thomas Robinson Best win: Ohio St., Dec. 10

BAYLOR

MARQUETTE

No. 3, SOUTH (27-7)

No. 3, WEST (25-7)

AP: 9, RPI: 9, Pomeroy: 14 Record vs. RPI top 50: 8-7 Key player: Perry Jones Best win: Kansas, Mar. 9

AP: 11, RPI: 8, Pomeroy: 18 Record vs. RPI top 50: 7-5 Key player: Jae Crowder Best win: Georgetown, Mar. 3

SEE THE FIELD ON PAGE 16

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PLUMLEE from page 7 lineup. Krzyzewski praised the team’s most recent defensive efforts in the ACC tournament, despite the semifinal loss.

Earlier in the season, the main problem defensively was the opposing shooting percentage. Even on days where Duke shot well from the field, teams still were positioned to win. Since Plumlee was put into the starting lineup, opposing squads have shot only 41 percent from the floor, compared to the 44-percent performance allowed previously.

Defensively, Plumlee has a plus-minus of plus-41 since being inserted into the starting lineup, with his worst game coming against North Carolina in the regular season finale at minus-4. The concern about points in the paint could be attributed to the ease of backdoor cuts and drives through the lane, which are chief concerns for perimeter defenders.

SOUTH PREVIEW from page 10 half-court oriented team and their undersized post players should allow Duke to dominate the glass.

If the Musketeers defeat the Irish, however, Xavier’s dynamic backcourt could present problems for Duke defensively. Senior Tu Holloway—the best guard in the Atlantic 10—junior Mark Lyons and freshman Dezmine Wells lead the team in scoring. Their ability to get to the rim and shoot prolifically from long range could propel the Musketeers to the Sweet 16.

If the Blue Devils win their first two games, they will likely face either No. 3 seed Baylor or No. 6 UNLV in Atlanta.

Since falling to Duke in the Elite Eight in 2010, Bears head coach Scott Drew has upgraded the talent on his roster substantially. The Bears now have NBA-caliber length and athleticism, which could bother Duke.

Underclassmen Perry Jones and former Duke recruit Quincy Miller are lanky, versatile wing-forwards with the ability to handle the ball and shoot from distance.

Both are projected to be first-round NBA draft picks this year.

UNLV is perhaps the most experienced team in the region. The team’s athletic fast-break attack, which led them a convincing win over North Carolina earlier in the season, makes the Rebels a trendy pick among college basketball fans to go deep into the tournament. Do-it-all small forward Mike Moser spearheads head coach Dave Rice’s offense. A 6-foot-8 wing who is effective inside and out, Moser is a matchup nightmare for the small forwardless Blue Devils.

Also lurking in the South region is

Men’s NCAA Tournament Preview The point is that the rebounding and defensive numbers have improved. The real reason the Blue Devils continue to struggle, however, is their offensive production.

Up until the road game in Chapel Hill in early February, Duke had not shot under 40 percent from the floor in back-to-back games all season. Since then, the team has done so twice, most recently finishing the ACC tournament with a less-than-stellar 37-percent shooting.

Of course, the health of Ryan Kelly and the sudden disappearance of Andre Dawkins are both heavy contributing factors to this predicament, but the offensive game is something that can be fixed quickly, because that’s where Duke has been successful all year.

Now that Plumlee has found his groove in the starting lineup, the defense can follow suit. In that same ACC tournament, the Blue Devils gave up only 59 points per game, nine fewer than the season average.

No. 1 overall seed Kentucky. Arguably head coach John Calipari’s best team ever, the Wildcats have looked like a juggernaut virtually all season long and feature four likely first-round NBA draft picks in Anthony Davis, Terrence Jones, Doron Lamb and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. The Wildcats have a very difficult path to New Orleans, however, and their inexperience will be put to the test early. In the third round, Kentucky could face defending champion Connecticut, one of the few teams in the country with the sheer talent to go toe-to-toe with the Wildcats. Although the Huskies have been wildly inconsistent and underwhelming much of the season, they have won three of their past four games since head coach Jim Calhoun returned to the bench and may be playing their best basketball of the season.

If Kentucky can advance to the Sweet 16, there is the potential for a rematch with fourth-seeded Indiana, who knocked off the Wildcats in early December on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer.

Wichita State—the No. 5 seed—also has the offensive firepower to make it a potential Cinderella, as the Shockers average 77.7 points per game.

Provided the top two teams can advance to the Elite Eight, the potential Duke-Kentucky matchup would occur on the 20th anniversary of the two programs’ iconic game in the 1992 East Regional final. In that memorable contest, Christian Laettner’s last-second shot lifted the Blue Devils past Kentucky.

Although Kentucky is the consensus favorite to advance to New Orleans, the South is thought to be the most difficult region in the bracket given the quality from top to bottom, which could also make it the most unpredictable.

Miles Plumlee has the intangibles to be a senior leader for Duke, something this young team will need now that the Big Dance has arrived. The oldest Plum-

THORNTON from page 5 him the Blue Devils’ most vocal player and have named him as the one that holds them accountable for errors both in practice and in games. That role might seem unusual for a sophomore that averages only four points per game, but it is one that comes naturally to Thornton.

“The point guard position—in the history of basketball, most of the leaders have been from that position,” Thornton said. “I’ve known that growing up being a point guard and I’ve done that my whole life and

DEFENSE from page 4 to 70.2 last season.

Duke is allowing 0.99 points per possession, putting them 135th in the country. Although in the top half of programs nationally, that statistic reveals a significant setback for a team that gave up 0.92 points per possession in both of the preceding two seasons, placing it ninth and 13th in the nation, respectively.

Lastly, the effort on the defensive end has not proved very opportunistic either.

Only 18.8 percent of opponents’ possessions are ending in turnovers compared to 20.9 percent of possessions last season. This season’s number is good for 240th amongst all Division I teams.

When asked for reasons that Duke may be struggling on defense, both players and head coach Mike Krzyzewski were hesitant to agree with the assessment shown by the statistics. Seth Curry said the team is not poor defensively, just inconsistent.

“We do a good job of playing really well defensively through stretches,” Curry said. “Then, sometimes, we’re just terrible. We just haven’t really been consistent. When we’re good, we’re really good. When we’re bad, it’s been really bad.”

Krzyzewski, on the other hand, said that he does not put much stock in all the statistics. He said that the numbers represent the team over the entire season, while the defense has been much improved recently. In the ACC tournament the Blue Devils held opponents to an average of 59.0 points per game, even though they

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THURSDAY, MARCH 15, 2012 | 15

lee brother now has the defensive game to match his class status, however, something that he and Cameron Crazies everywhere hope will translate to offensive success.

I’m used to it, so it doesn’t matter that I’m younger.”

That attitude has been invaluable on a team with just a single senior and a collection of players adapting to new roles this season. And Thornton’s intangibles—leadership, defensive intensity and offensive efficiency—have allowed the Washington, D.C. native to place a stranglehold on the point guard job, even if it took him a full season to do it.

Thornton may not put many points up on the scoreboard in Greensboro this weekend, but if there were columns in the box score for hustle plays and defensive stops, his importance to the Blue Devils would be clear. fell in the semifinals.

“We’ve played pretty good defense.

Who cares how you played in November and December,” he said. “Stats like that are so irrelevant, and to pay any attention to them is ridiculous. It’s been a season of constant improvement. It’s not the kind of defense that causes a lot of turnovers, so it’s not flamboyant. But, overall it’s been very solid.”

Krzyzewski also praised Tyler Thornton for his emergence as a defensive leader and his work on the opposition’s top offensive threat from the perimeter.

Over the next several weeks, Thornton and company will get a chance to prove their head coach right. With a lineup that sometimes features three smaller guards and lacks a long, athletic wing, the Blue Devils have struggled to stop attacking swingmen such as Harrison Barnes, Glen Rice Jr., and Michael Snaer.

Baylor’s Quincy Miller, UNLV’s Chace Stanback, and Kentucky’s Michael KiddGilchrist are all highly touted players in this mold who Duke could encounter as it attempts to reach the Final Four from the South region.

Athletic big men who have the versatility to play inside and outside, such as Miami’s Kenny Kadji and North Carolina’s Tyler Zeller, have created problems for the Blue Devils this season. Baylor’s Perry Jones, Indiana’s Cody Zeller and Kentucky’s Anthony Davis possess similar skill sets and will pose a great challenge down the road in the tournament.

Only time will tell if Krzyzewski is right that too much attention is being paid to the team’s seasonal statistics. The Duke defense will soon get its chance to prove that it has improved against the bevy of offensive talent in the South region.

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Men’s NCAA Tournament Preview

MICHIGAN STATE from page 6

SYRACUSE from page 9

ranked in the Top 25 to begin the season. Apparently most of the country forgot one very important rule—never underestimate Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo.

Izzo faced arguably one of his toughest challenges in rebuilding a squad that had lost three starters and essentially left him with one building block, senior Draymond Green.

Yet Izzo has done a masterful job of developing a young team that coming into this season severely lacked experience.

Since beginning the year 0-2 following defeats to North Carolina and Duke, the Spartans have racked up a 27-5 record while navigating the toughest conference in the nation, the Big Ten. This earned Izzo’s team a share of the conference regular season title, and after dispatching Ohio State in the final, the Big Ten tournament championship. Michigan State is the only No. 1 seed to have won its conference tournament, and ultimately has something last year’s team lacked going into the NCAA tournament—momentum.

In Draymond Green, the Spartans have a do-everything star that has carried them much of the year. The versatile forward led the team with 16.1 points per game, the conference with 10.4 rebounds per game and has even taken on the role of a point-forward at times, averaging 3.8 assists. Green is even a threat from deep, shooting 40 percent from behind the arc. Futhermore, Izzo’s efforts in developing a supporting cast around Green have paid off, allowing the Spartans to compensate for the rare off night from Green. Point guard Keith Appling has proved to be an adept floor general, averaging nearly 12 points and four assists per game while playing tenacious defense. Admittedly, the Spartans suffered a tough loss when freshman Branden Dawson went down during the Big Ten tournament with a torn ACL. But his replacement, Brandon Wood, proved his worth by scoring 21 points against the Buckeyes in the final.

Finally, Izzo is simply one of the best to ever coach in the NCAA tournament. Since taking over in 1995, Izzo has led the Spartans to six Final Fours, including two in the past three years, more than any other program. There is also this to consider—every time his team has earned a No. 1 seed, they have advanced to the Final Four. Michigan State is the closest there is to a sure thing in March, so don’t be surprised to see Green and company cutting down the nets in New Orleans. When in doubt, trust Tom Izzo.

all year long, the Orange have proven doubters wrong and emerged from controversy relatively unscathed.

Head coach Jim Boeheim has guided Syracuse to 31 wins, a Big East regular-season championship and a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament in what has been perhaps the most successful season of the legendary coach’s career to date. If Syracuse were to win its second national championship under Boeheim’s watch, it would surely be his most impressive achievement yet, and even without Melo the Orange boast a roster capable of beating any team in the country.

Melo has already missed time this season, so the Orange have experience adjusting their style of play to accommodate a smaller lineup, and the three games Syracuse played in January sans Melo should give the team confidence this weekend. Syracuse’s foremost weakness is rebounding, and after losing the leading rebounder on the team, the onus will fall upon undersized forwards C.J. Fair and Kris Joseph to pick up the slack. Freshman forward Rakeem Christmas will likely replace Melo in the starting lineup as he did in January with reserve center Baye Keita rotating in. Although neither Christmas nor Keita can replace the sort of shot blocking and defense the 7-foot Melo provided, Syracuse went 2-1 with the duo filling in, only losing on the road to hot-shooting Notre Dame.

The Orange’s offense is fueled by its ferocious zone defense, Boeheim’s hallmark strategy that had been generating 21.5 points off turnovers per game entering March. Syracuse, a team comprised of long and lanky athletes seemingly tailor-made to play zone, averages the third-most steals per game in the country at 9.6 and is able to break into transition offense following a turnover better than any other team in the NCAA tournament. Even without Melo for three games, the Orange forced 14 turnovers per game against three Big East opponents that made the field—Notre Dame, Cincinnati and West Virginia.

Boeheim may be without the anchor to his vaunted zone in Melo, but if any team can afford such a loss, it is Syracuse. The Orange are one of the deepest teams in the nation, and Boeheim has the luxury of

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rotating between nine talented and experienced players on any given night.

Syracuse is led by seniors Joseph and Scoop Jardine, a duo that has helped the Orange to well over 100 wins in their careers. The strength of Syracuse, though, is its bench. In Dion Waiters and James Southerland, two explosive scoring guards, Syracuse possesses two players who can take over a game offensively coming off the bench. In the Orange’s loss to Cincinnati in the Big East tournament, Waiters dropped 28 points as a deadly outside shooter who can stretch an opposing defense and penetrate at will. If Waiters can continue his hot play, Syracuse has as good a chance as any team in the East region to make it to New Orleans and cut down the nets.

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THE FIELD from page 14 Regardless of whether a school is a top seed or barely squeaked in by pulling an upset in its conference tournament, every one of these teams is going to show up to play. And when that happens, the madness that is March takes over.

KENTUCKY from page 11 support their bevy of superstars, but that will not affect their gameplay in the postseason.

Even with its lack of depth, Kentucky rarely gets into serious foul trouble and has not shown signs of fatigue during the season. While some critics think that the Wildcats might be out of breath before the end of March, Kentucky’s 30 regular season wins prove otherwise.

Kentucky’s only two losses on the year were by a combined eight points, including a loss at Indiana on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer. The Wildcats have dominated top competition all year long, with wins over Kansas, North Carolina, Vanderbilt, Louisville and Florida three times.

To reach the Elite Eight, Kentucky will most likely have to defeat either Baylor or Duke, but after the impressive regular season put together by its slew of future NBA draftees, the Wildcats are the team to beat in this year’s NCAA tournament.

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Men’s NCAA Tournament Preview

RIVERS from page 3

UNC from page 13

him‌. [But] I think he’s stayed consistent, and he hasn’t tried to do crazy things. I think he’s handled everything in a really poised, mature manner. I’m proud of him.�

The ability to nail big shots is something Rivers displayed even in his high school days.

As a junior at Winter Park High School, in front of a crowd that included Krzyzewski, Rivers hit six consecutive 3-pointers in the first half of a regional game to break it open. Verbally committed to Florida at the time, he lit up the scoreboard with 41 points.

So the fact that he wants the ball in pressure situations has come as no surprise to Winter Park head

the NCAA tournament with a wrist injury.

Senior forward Tyler Zeller—who bore the brunt of the humiliation following that not-easily-forgettable loss to Duke—has been particularly dominant during this stretch, averaging 18.7 points and eight rebounds.

To be certain, it is dangerous to give extra motivation to a team that already boasts so many threats. With five prospective NBA draftees, including three potential lottery picks, the Tar Heels are perhaps the closest to resembling an NBA squad in the bracket. They certainly play to the potential of one, too, ranking among the top five in points, rebounds and assists per game in Division I. Joining Zeller and Henson as North Carolina’s primary offensive weapons is sophomore standout Harrison Barnes. He has been North Carolina’s most prolific scorer with 17.4 points per game, as well as the most accurate Tar Heel from 3-point range, capitalizing on 37.7 percent of his attempts. However, Barnes is perhaps most dangerous for his impressive consistency no matter the opponent— he has only scored less than 14 points six times this season.

His reliability will certainly become a big advantage during the latter rounds of the tournament, when the stakes become much higher and the opponents more difficult.

North Carolina received the No. 1 seed in the weak Midwest Region, where there seems to be only one serious challenger to ruin its Final Four plans—No. 2 Kansas and star forward Thomas Robinson. The remaining talent in the region pales in comparison to the Tar Heels’, which gives the North Carolina faithful confidence that they will see their team in New Orleans.

“The reason I chose Duke [is] Coach K and [his staff ] are going to push you. They’re never going to let you get away with anything.� — Austin Rivers coach David Bailey. “He is a competitor,� Bailey said. “That’s what makes those kinds of players really good is that they want the shot at the end of the game, and they’re willing to take the criticism if they miss. He likes to put himself in those positions.�

He has had to endure such critiques throughout this season, most recently as he threw up an errant 3-pointer with six seconds remaining in the ACC semifinals against Florida State with the Blue Devils trailing 62-59, the eventual final score.

But such moments have defined this roller-coaster season for the first-year guard who despite his midseason struggles, excelled in his first collegiate games. He scored 22 points in a Nov. 29 loss to then-No. 2 Ohio State and continued to play well through a stretch in which Duke won the Maui Invitational and then his second game at Madison Square Garden.

Those marquee victories left him riding high, which made the slump leading up to his benching even more jarring. More than anything, he had to restore his belief in himself that drove him throughout his high school days and first months at Duke. “I had to find myself and had to make sure I stayed confident,� Rivers said. “The reason I chose Duke [is] Coach K and [his staff] are going to push you. They’re never going to let you get away with anything.�

Krzyzewski and his staff have never relented in trying to get the most out of their budding star. Rivers has not received any special treatment despite the constant hype of being a top recruit and the son of NBA legend Doc Rivers. “We have not coached him with kid gloves,� Krzyzewski said. “He’s been coached hard, real hard. And he likes that, and he’s been one of the guys.�

While Rivers has been “one of the guys,� Krzyzewski said a primary step in his evolution has been nurturing relationships with his new teammates in order to get there. As the freshman with the largest role on the team, it was initially a difficult balance between managing his roles as an individual and as a teammate.

But with Rivers’ maturation throughout the season, finding that equilibrium has come more naturally. “I think as guys have gotten more comfortable knowing who they are, the relationships with everyone have gotten better,� Krzyzewski said. “You have to earn respect, and Austin has earned the respect of his teammates. He’s actually becoming a little bit of a leader for us right now. He’s grown a lot, and they’ve grown a lot together.�

This growth has come as his success on this year’s team has fluctuated, culminating with the wake-up call when he spent his first opening tip in 10 years on the bench.

But with a game on the line and time running out, what matters is the team places him alongside trusted veterans Seth Curry and Ryan Kelly, in terms of whose name Krzyzewski would call to take a gamewinning shot. “We’ve won a lot of games with me putting the ball in the hands of my best players,� Krzyzewski said. “I think that’s axiom No. 1 as a coach. You have a good player, he should take more of your shots.�

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THURSDAY, MARCH 15, 2012 | 17

CHRIS DALL/CHRONICLE FILE PHOTO

ACC player of the year Tyler Zeller joins Harrison Barnes and John Henson to form one of the nation’s premier frontcourts.

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staff picks NCAA CHAMP

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or: who you shouldn’t pick in your bracket UPSET SPECIAL

DUKE FINISH

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