The Sorry State Lottery requires you to select five different numbers from 0 through 59. You are a Big Winner if the five numbers you select match exactly those in the drawing. You are a Small-Fry Winner if four of your five numbers match those in the drawing. The task is to determine the probabilities of each of these outcomes and the probability that you are either a Big Winner or a Small-Fry Winner.
The Sorry State Lottery presents an intriguing combinatorial probability problem, where participants select five distinct numbers from a set of integers ranging from 0 to 59. The probability calculations for winning, whether as a Big Winner (all five numbers match exactly) or as a Small-Fry Winner (exactly four out of five numbers match), involve understanding the total number of possible outcomes and the specific favorable outcomes for each category.
To determine the probability of being a Big Winner, we first recognize that there is only one specific combination that will result in an exact match of the five numbers you chose with the winning numbers. The total number of possible 5-number combinations from 60 numbers (0 through 59) is calculated using the combination formula:
\[ C(60, 5) = \frac{60!}{5! \times (60-5)!} \]
Calculating this yields:
\[ C(60, 5) = \frac{60 \times 59 \times 58 \times 57 \times 56}{5 \times 4 \times 3 \times 2 \times 1} = 5,461,512. \]
Thus, the probability of matching exactly the five winning numbers (Big Winner) is the reciprocal of this total, as only one combination out of all possible combinations will be the exact match:
\[ P(\text{Big Winner}) = \frac{1}{C(60, 5)} = \frac{1}{5,461,512}. \]
For a Small-Fry Winner, your selection must match exactly four of the winning numbers, with the fifth number being different. To compute this probability, we consider the number of favorable combinations that meet this criterion.
The calculation involves selecting 4 matching numbers from the 5 winning numbers, and choosing 1 non-matching number from the remaining 55 numbers (since 60 total minus the 5 winning numbers gives 55 non-winning numbers). The number of favorable combinations is therefore:
\[ C(5, 4) \times C(55, 1) = \left( \frac{5!}{4! \times 1!} \right) \times 55 = 5 \times 55 = 275. \]
The probability is the ratio of favorable outcomes to total outcomes:
\[ P(\text{Small-Fry Winner}) = \frac{275}{C(60, 5)} = \frac{275}{5,461,512}. \]
Probability of Being Either a Big Winner or a Small-Fry Winner
To find the combined probability of either outcome, we sum the individual probabilities, noting that they are mutually exclusive events (a draw cannot be both a Big Winner and a Small-Fry Winner in the same match):
\[ P(\text{Big or Small-Fry Winner}) = P(\text{Big Winner}) + P(\text{Small-Fry Winner}) \]
\[ = \frac{1}{5,461,512} + \frac{275}{5,461,512} = \frac{276}{5,461,512}. \]
In conclusion, the probability of winning as a Big Winner is \(\frac{1}{5,461,512}\), as a Small-Fry Winner it is \(\frac{275}{5,461,512}\), and the overall probability of winning either way is \(\frac{276}{5,461,512}\). These calculations highlight the exceedingly low probabilities associated with lottery wins, illustrating the importance of understanding probability theory in assessing the odds of such gaming scenarios.
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