The Future of Downtowns Five lessons in one talk
Tracy Hadden Loh, Brookings Institution New Orleans | October 15, 2026
Very few people really have a grip on what’s happening The future of cities is a political question
Solving the paradox “What does the city of the future look like, and who decides? Much of the rhetoric of the current moment is focused on assigning blame for shortcomings. Instead, we need to encourage what has worked to support great neighborhoods and downtowns and make those things accessible to more people — finding common ground, earning trust and establishing new ways to work together to build something that lasts.”
— Tracy in the in the LA Times, 2023
1
The state of downtown and the region
2
Five lessons for downtowns
3
What to do about it
Throughout this talk you will see these friends Metropolitan Areas and Principal Cities: Population Summary Census Bureau Vintage 2025 estimates; 2025 = July 1, 2025; 2020 = April 1, 2020 estimates base.
Metro area (official MSA name) Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin Cincinnati Milwaukee-Waukesha Memphis New Orleans-Metairie
State(s)
City pop. 2025
City change since 2020
TX TN OH-KY-IN WI TN-MS-AR LA
1,002,632 721,074 314,367 562,407 609,647 362,154
+4.6% +4.6% +1.5% -2.7% -3.0% -5.7%
Metro pop. 2025 2,620,945 2,197,416 2,312,858 1,575,010 1,341,412 970,849
Metro change City share of metro (2025) since 2020 +14.8% +9.1% +2.8% +0.0% -0.3% -3.6%
38.3% 32.8% 13.6% 35.7% 45.4% 37.3%
Sources: Metro: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, cbsa-met-est2025-pop.xlsx (Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Metropolitan Statistical Areas). City: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, SUB-IP-EST2025-ANNRNK.xlsx (Incorporated Places of 20,000 or More, Ranked by July 1, 2025 Population). Nashville city figure is the Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance), which excludes a few small incorporated cities within the consolidated government.
1
The state of downtown and the region
New Orleans is an authentic, proud constellation of people and places
The magic of New Orleans
Source: The Data Center, “The New Orleans Index at Twenty” 2025
But New Orleans is in last place on growth Jobs
2014-2024 50%
41.2% 40%
28.8%
30%
20%
13.2% 5.5%
10%
9.6% 2.1%
0% Top 55 Metro New Orleans Areas
-10% Source: Brookings, “Metro Monitor,” 2026
-1.5%
Nashville
Memphis
Milwaukee
Austin
Cincinnati
And current conditions are not improving Change in average annual wage 2014-2024 30%
25.8% 25% 20% 15%
16.6% 12.3%
10%
5.7%
6.2%
6.4%
Memphis
Milwaukee
7.8%
5% 0% Top 55 Metro New Orleans Areas Source: Brookings, “Metro Monitor,” 2026
Nashville
Austin
Cincinnati
The grip of poverty and segregation remains strong Change in poverty rate 2014-2024 Top 55 Metro Areas New Orleans
Nashville
Memphis
Milwaukee
Austin
Cincinnati
2%
1.0%
1% 0% -1%
-1.3%
-2%
-2.2%
-3%
-4% -5% Source: Brookings, “Metro Monitor,” 2026
-4.0%
-2.0%
-1.7%
-2.3%
But these are not reasons to give up on progress
Racial exclusion in New Orleans
Geographic inclusion in New Orleans
2014-2024
2014-2024
-0.4%
-2.0%
Change in white/people of color relative poverty gap (%)
Rank: 39th/56
Source: Brookings, “Metro Monitor,” 2026
Change in top/bottom neighborhoods relative poverty gap (%)
Rank: 35th/56
Downtown is a standout regional asset to leverage U.S. downtown commercial core employment market share trend, 2011 - 2019 20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
Source: Brookings, “Breaking the ‘urban doom loop’: The future of downtowns is shared prosperity,’” 2023
2
Five lessons for downtowns
#1 – Build housing as an economic development strategy
Source: Brookings, “How to break the doom loop: Actionable insights from the Brookings Future of Downtowns learning exchange”, 2024
#1 – Build housing as an economic development strategy CC Share of MSA Population, 2020 3.0%
2.4%
2.5% 2.0% 1.5%
1.8%
1.7% 1.5%
1.4%
1.0%
0.83%
0.5% 0.0% Top 48 Metro Areas
New Orleans
Nashville
Milwaukee
Source: Brookings, “Breaking the ‘urban doom loop’: The future of downtowns is shared prosperity,’” 2023
Austin
Cincinnati
#1 – Build housing as a DOWNTOWN economic development strategy Change in U.S. downtown residential population shares, 2000 - 2020 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60%
Source: Brookings, “Breaking the ‘urban doom loop’: The future of downtowns is shared prosperity,’” 2023
#2 – Office-heavy downtowns must adapt to become more relevant
Offices are over
Office use continues
Too many offices are bad anyway
It’s not too many offices – it’s too little offices!
Demand from residents can replace demand from workers
Housing strengthens demand for offices – and other stuff.
Cities are about to go broke!!!
Many residential tax bases are stronger than ever
Office conversions can solve the housing crisis
Office conversions are a pricey way to add a fraction of what we need
Source: Brookings, “Myths about converting offices into housing—and what can really revitalize downtowns”, 2023
#2: Office-heavy downtowns must adapt to become more relevant
New Orleans
Source: CoStar and Cushman and Wakefield, “
Other downtowns
Reimagining Cities
,” 202 4
Other walkable urban places
#2: Office-heavy downtowns must adapt to become more relevant
Source: HR&A, “
Mandatory inclusionary zoning update and office conversion evaluation
,” 2025
Source: Brookings, HR&A, Gensler, and Eckholm Studios, “ A community guide to office - to- residential conversion: Part 1, economics ,” 2025
#3 – Downtown needs place-based investments, including in transit
2026 ridership as a % of 2019 ridership 120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0% New Orleans
Source: Brookings analysis of National Transit Database
Nashville
Memphis
Milwaukee
Austin
Cincinnati
#3 – Downtown needs place-based investments, including in transit
Source: Brookings, “Access to resilient transportation in metropolitan New Orleans”, 2025
#3 – Downtown needs place-based investments, including in transit
Source: Brookings, “Highway shakedown: How local road users are subsidizing state highway investments”, 2025
#4 – Addressing homelessness is also critical, and feasible
Variations in homelessness across comparable cities
HUD Continuum of Care (CoC)
Homeless per 100K
Unsheltered Per 100K
% Unsheltered
Major City CoC's
436
150
34%
Nashville/Davidson County CoC
292
81
28%
Austin/Travis County CoC
233
113
49%
New Orleans/Jefferson Parish CoC
197
55
28%
Cincinnati/Hamilton County CoC
124
7
5%
Milwaukee City & County CoC
105
6
5%
Source: Department of Housing and Urban Development 2025 Point-in-Time Counts and 2025 American Community Survey 1-year population estimates
#4 – Addressing homelessness is also critical, and feasible Overall Homelessness in New Orleans/Jefferson Parish 2019 – 2025 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 2019
2020
2021
2022
Year Source: Department of Housing and Urban Development 2025 Point-in-Time Counts
2023
2024
2025
#5 – Defining “recovery”
180
16%
Trips to downtown (thousands)
160 140
66%
33%
120 100
5%
27%
80 60 40 20 0 New Orleans
Nashville 2019
Source: Brookings analysis of Replica data, Typical Fall 2025 weekday
Milwaukee 2025
Austin
Cincinnati
#5 – Defining “recovery”
Source: Datafy
3
What to do about it
Invest in the built environment, placemaking, and place governance to promote reassurance, connection, and belonging, as opposed to maximizing rents per square foot or sales tax revenue.
Invest in the built environment, placemaking, and place governance to promote reassurance, connection, and belonging, as opposed to maximizing rents per square foot or sales tax revenue.
Consolidate jobs and other assets in activity centers including downtown. Make it easier to build new buildings and change old buildings. Make downtown somewhere people want to be. Be flexible.
Consolidate jobs and other assets in activity centers including downtown. Make it easier to build new buildings and change old buildings. Make downtown somewhere people want to be. Be flexible.
Establish stable, ongoing funding for transit and prioritize building and operating a modern bus network.
Establish stable, ongoing funding for transit and prioritize building and operating a modern bus network.
Stop looking for someone, something, or somewhere else to blame and build for zero by doing what we know works to prevent and reduce homelessness.
Stop looking for someone, something, or somewhere else to blame and build for zero by doing what we know works to prevent and reduce homelessness.
Recovery doesn’t have to mean a future that looks like the past – define it and create nextgeneration policies that explicitly link downtown prosperity and neighborhood well-being.
Questions? Contact: tloh@brookings.edu
Tracy Hadden Loh, Brookings Institution New Orleans | October 15, 2026