【CBRE】 Japan Investor Intentions Survey 2021

JAPAN INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2021

CONTENTS

03

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

05

2020 PERFORMANCE

08

INVESTOR APPETITE

12

INVESTOR STRATEGY

17

ESG INVESTMENT

20

SURVEY PROFILE

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JAPAN INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2021

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CBRE’s Asia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey 2021 was conducted between 9 November 2020 and 14 December 2020. 492 mainly Asia Pacific-based investors participated in the survey, which asked respondents a range of questions regarding their buying appetite and preferred strategies, sectors and markets for 2021. This report focuses primarily on the answers given by Japanbased investors.

RESPONDENTS DISPLAY ROBUST APPETITE FOR INVESTMENT

K E Y F INDINGS • A record high percentage of investors anticipate their investment volume to exceed that of the previous year.

Appetite

44% of Japanese investors anticipate their volume of real estate investment in 2021 will exceed the previous year, matching the all-time high figure in this category recorded in 2016. Tokyo was the top city for cross-border investment from overseas for the second consecutive year. Investment appetite among foreign investors remains extremely strong, with significant capital expected to continue to flow into Japan in 2021.

PANDEMIC-ERA INVESTMENT STRATEGIES FOCUSED ON CORE The most popular strategy for investment in 2021 was to target core assets, selected by 39% of respondents, representing an increase of 10 points from last year’s survey. For the first time, investors expressing an intent to invest in logistics facilities outnumbered those who said they would invest in offices. In terms of targeted returns, 90% of those planning to invest in core assets replied that targeted returns would be unchanged from prior to the pandemic. As such, cap rates are likely to remain low. In the logistics sector, in which 16% of investors said that they are willing to bid above asking prices, it is possible that yields may fall still further.

MORE INVESTORS ADOPT ESG CRITERIA IN INVESTMENT POLICIES Just 28% of Japanese investors currently include Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance (ESG) criteria in their investment policies, a figure significantly below the 49% of investors who do so in the Asia Pacific region as a whole. However, over half of Japanese investors indicated that they either have concrete plans to introduce ESG criteria, or are considering doing so.

• Tokyo was named as the number one city for cross-border investment for the second consecutive year, with Osaka also ranking in the top 10.

• While North America remains the top investment market for Japanese investors, interest in Asian markets is on the rise.

• “Core” and “distressed” assets are preferred.

Strategies

• Targeted returns for core assets remain unchanged.

• The logistics sector has surpassed office buildings as the major investment target.

• Transaction prices for logistics facilities to remain stable or even increase.

• Japan currently stands below Asia-Pacific standards for the implementation of ESG criteria.

ESG

• However, majority of investors are planning or considering the adoption of ESG criteria, and are aiming for higher ESG investment as a % of total AUM.

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CBRE RESEARCH

4

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JAPAN

I N V E S TO R I N T E N T I O N S

BUY MORE 43%

44%▲

30%

Preferred cities for cross-border investment

Investment strategies focus on core and distressed assets 39% 29%

BEIJING 6

3 SEOUL

2019 2019

2020 2020

2021 2021

4

9

Core

OSAKA

47%

Core plus

5

12%

17% Value-add

2020

SHANGHAI

44%▽

16%

25%

2020

16% 3%

Opportunistic

Distressed assets

2021

2021

Targeted returns for core assets remain unchanged

SHENZHEN

59%

17%

1 TOKYO

7

ABOUT THE SAME

26%

Core

90%

HCMC

Distressed assets

of respondents assumed the same returns as the pandemic.

73%

of respondents assumed higher returns as the pandemic.

2 2019 2019

2020 2020

2021 2021

SINGAPORE

Signs of further price increases for logistics assets Buyer’s expected price by asset type

BUY LESS

Total of "same as before the pandemic" and "exceeds seller's price”

9%

7%

2019 2019

2020 2020

6%▽ 8 SYDNEY

2021 2021 Top ten preferred cities*

Source: Japan Investor Intentions Survey 2021, CBRE, February 2021

Higher ranking than in 2020

10 MELBOURNE

Logistics

93%

Grade A office (stabilized)

51%

Grade A office (value-add)

34%

High street retail

Hotel

8%

1%

JAPAN INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2021

INTRODUCTION

T H E R E A L E S TAT E INVESTMENT MARKET IN 2020

JAPAN INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2021

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6

2020 INVESTMENT VOLUME RISES Y-O-Y Significant increases in investment observed i n l o g i s t i c s a n d r e s i d e n t ia l s e c t o r s

Figure 1: Japan real estate investment volume by sector

Japan real estate investment volume reached JPY 3.8 trillion in 2020, an increase of 5.2% from the previous year, although the number of transactions fell 20% y-o-y. With the economy stagnating as a result of the measures put in place to curb the spread of COVID-19, the logistics and residential sectors, seen as offering comparatively stable profits, proved popular with investors (Figure 1).

Total transaction volume in these two asset types reached JPY 1.6 trillion, up 65% y-o-y. Elsewhere, while there was considerable concern regarding the midto long-term demand for office space in light of ongoing working style reforms, a few large central Tokyo office assets changed hands, ensuring total transaction volume in the sector increased by 3.4% y-o-y. Investment volume in retail facilities and hotels, on the other hand, registered a significant y-o-y decline.

Investor enthusiasm waned on these sectors on fall in consumer activity as a result of the absence of inbound tourist demand and the government’s “requests” for residents to stay home to prevent virus transmission.

1,400

The impact of the pandemic was also observed in expected yield trends. While Q4 2020 expected yields for Tokyo declined on a y-o-y basis for logistics and residential apartments, they remained unchanged for office buildings, and rose for hotels and retail facilities (Figure 2). The fall in expected yields seen in the logistics sector reflects the growth in e-commerce-related demand brought about by the stay-at-home policies implemented to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

2019 2020

JPY bn

1,600

1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0

Office

Industrial

Residential

Retail

Hotel

Others

Transactions of at least JPY 1bn, excluding acquisitions by J-REITs at IPO. Source : Real Capital Analytics, CBRE, Q4 2020

Figure 2: Expected NOI yields (Tokyo; average by sector) Q4 2019 Q4 2020

% 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0

Office (Otemachi)

Source: CBRE, Q4 2020

Studio-type apartment

Multi-family Residential

Industrial (Tokyo bay area)

Retail (Ginza Chuo-Dori)

Hotel (Management contract)

JAPAN INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2021

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FOREIGN INVESTMENT VOLUME RISES 30% Y-O-Y 4.5% y-o-y decline in transaction volume

by Japanese investors Among domestic investors, total transaction volume for 2020 reached JPY 1.3 trillion for J-REITs (up 2% y-o-y), but just JPY 1.1 trillion for non-J-REIT domestic investors (down 15% y-o-y). The decline in investment by non-J-REIT domestic investors was primarily due to transaction cancellations and postponements as a result of the nationwide state of emergency declared in April and May 2020, as well as the subsequent cautious stance observed in the market due to the uncertainty wrought by the pandemic.

In contrast, transaction volume from foreign investors reached JPY 1.3 trillion, up 30% y-o-y, marking the second consecutive year in which foreign investment volume topped JPY 1 trillion. The continuation of monetary easing policies worldwide has prompted institutional investors to channel their funds into relatively high-yield real estate assets. Interest in the Japanese real estate market, in particular, heightened noticeably in 2020. In addition to Japan being the largest real estate investment market in Asia Pacific and possessing extremely low interest rates creating a relatively high cap rate spread, the comparatively low numbers of COVID-19 infections in the country has also made the Japanese market particularly attractive to investors.

Figure 3: Japan real estate investment volume by investor type

Domestic (J-REITs) Domestic (Others) Overseas

JPY bn

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Transactions of at least JPY 1bn, excluding acquisitions by J-REITs at IPO. Source: Real Capital Analytics, CBRE, Q4 2020

2017

2018

2019

2020

7

JAPAN INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2021

2021 R E A L E S TAT E I N V E S T M E N T APPETITE

JAPAN INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2021

© CBRE, INC. |

ROBUST DEMAND AMONG JAPANESE INVESTORS Some changes observed in sellers’ intentions 44% of Japanese investors said that they anticipate their investment volume in 2021 to exceed the previous year, a single-point increase on last year’s survey (Figure 4). While investors did adopt a wait-and-see approach for a short period following the rapid uptick in COVID-19 infections observed in Japan from March 2020, investment activity resumed from June. Some major transactions were completed in H2 2020, including several corporate asset sales.

Meanwhile, some changes were observed in investors’ selling intentions. Only 16% of investors surveyed indicated that they expected their sales volume in 2021 to exceed the previous year, a seven-point drop from the previous survey.

Furthermore, as many as 23% replied that they had no intentions of selling assets, a four-point increase over the same period (Figure 5).

2019 2020 2021

Figure 4: Purchase volume projections 70% 60% 50%

44%

44%

40% 30% 20%

6%

10% 0%

Buy more than last year

Buy as same as last year

Buy less than last year

6% No intention to invest

Source: Japan Investor Intentions Survey 2021, February 2021.

While total investment volume in the Japanese market in 2020 exceeded that of the previous year, the number of transactions actually fell. It is believed that some investors postponed or cancelled plans to sell assets in light of concerns that buyers would lower their offers due to the impact of the pandemic. With this trend expected to continue into 2021, the real estate sales market is projected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance.

Figure 5: Sales volume projections 60%

2019 2020 2021

53%

50% 40% 30% 20%

23% 16% 8%

10% 0%

Sell more than last year

Sell as same as last year

Source: Japan Investor Intentions Survey 2021, February 2021.

Sell less than last year

No intention to sell

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JAPAN INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2021

TOKYO SELECTED AS TOP CITY FOR CROSS-BORDER INVESTMENT FOR SECOND CONSECUTIVE YEAR

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Figure 6: Preferred cities for cross-border investment

BE IJING

SE O UL

6

3

1 TOKYO 9 OSAKA

SHA NGHA I

Foreign investors projected to drive sales market again in 2021

7

The survey found that Tokyo retained its position as the most preferred city in Asia-Pacific for cross-border investment for the second consecutive year, while Osaka rose from 12th place last year to ninth.

5 2

4

SHE NZHE N

HCMC

SINGA P O RE

CBRE believes it is possible that investment in the Japanese real estate market by overseas investors in 2021 will exceed the volume recorded in 2020. 66% of the overseas investors who selected Japanese cities as the most attractive targets for investment in this year’s survey also said that they anticipated their 2021 acquisition volume would exceed the previous year, a significant increase from the 44% observed in the last year’s survey.

The primary investment sector selected by these foreign investors was logistics/industrial, which was chosen by 56% of respondents. Opportunistic was the most popular investment strategy, with its figure of 30% representing a 22-point increase over the previous year’s number. This was followed by value-added and core strategies, both at 26%. From these findings it can be inferred that interest in the market is being driven not only by the promise of stable cashflow, but in the investment opportunities that the pandemic itself has created.

8 10

SYDNE Y

ME LBO URNE

Legend Top ten preferred cities* Higher ranking than in 2020

*Cross-border refers to respondents domiciled in a different country to the most attractive destination selected Source: Japan Investor Intentions Survey 2021, February 2021.

JAPAN INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2021

JAPANESE CROSS-BORDER INVESTORS PREFER NORTH AMERICA Interest in investment in the Asian region also on the rise As has been the case for several years, North America remained the most preferred region for overseas investment by Japanese investors. At the same time, however, significant increases were noted over the previous survey in the number of respondents who indicated a primary interest in both Developed Asia and Emerging Asia. For some years now, economic growth in Asia has led to the significant expansion of both the middle classes and the wealthy, fostering expectations of growth in the real estate markets. The fact that most Asian nations have suffered relatively less in economic terms from the pandemic than North American and European nations has also acted as an additional catalyst to spark interest in the region among Japanese investors.

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Figure 7: Preferred region for cross-border investment among Japanese investors 0%

20%

40%

60%

41%

North America

26%

Developed Asia

20%

Emerging Asia

7%

Pacific

6%

Western Europe

South and Central America

0%

Central & Eastern Europe

0%

2021

Source: Japan Investor Intentions Survey 2021, February 2021.

2020

JAPAN INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2021

2021 R E A L E S TAT E I N V E S T M E N T S T R AT E G I E S

JAPAN INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2021

INVESTORS DISPLAY PREFERENCE FOR CORE AND DISTRESSED OPPORTUNITIES

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Figure 8 : Preferred investment strategies

2019 2020

Distressed assets to return to investment strategies for first time since Global Financial Crisis When asked what they considered to be their preferred investment strategies for 2021, 39% of Japanese investors replied that they would be focusing on core assets (a 10 point y-o-y increase), while 16% indicated that they would primarily focus on distressed assets (up 13 points y-o-y).

In terms of the impact of the pandemic on their investment and management strategies, 47% of investors replied that they would place greater emphasis on tenant credit and rent roll growth in 2021. This increased focus on stable mid-tolong term profitability and risk suppression appears to have led to an increase in the number of investors favouring core asset-based strategies.

At the same time, respondents indicating that they intended to invest in distressed assets as a primary strategy exhibited the largest y-o-y increase. While aid from the government and financial institutions was successful in limiting the number of distressed situations in 2020, several retail properties and hotels unable to receive additional financing from lenders are expected to surface as distressed assets in 2021. However, acquisitions of such assets will require the implementation of strategical and managerial expertise, such as through repurposing properties or changing tenants, in order to turn a profit.

40%

2021

39%

35% 30% 25% 20%

17%

16%

16%

15%

12%

10% 5% 0% Core

Core plus

Value-add

Source: Japan Investor Intentions Survey 2021, February 2021.

Opportunistic

Distressed assets

JAPAN INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2021

TARGETED RETURNS REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM PRIOR TO THE PANDEMIC

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Figure 9 : Changes in targeted returns by investment strategy

Intensified competition and lack of “appropriately” priced properties cited as main factors Very few investors indicated that their targeted returns for their preferred strategy would be increased from prior to the pandemic, with the notable exception of those investors who planned to invest primarily in distressed assets. Aside from this group, most investors replied that their targeted returns would be unchanged from prior to the pandemic, including over half of investors primarily targeting value-added assets, and over 80% of those employing other strategies (Figure 9).

The reason so many investors are keeping their expected returns unchanged is that, amid concerns regarding the uncertain resolution to the pandemic, opportunities for investment in the sales market are anticipated to remain scarce.

Factors influencing targeted returns were, according to the survey, uncertainty related to the length and impact of the pandemic (58% of respondents), intense competition for good quality assets (47%), and a lack of “appropriately” priced stock (44%).

Over 90% of investors pursuing both the highly-favoured core asset-focused strategies and core plus asset-focused strategies replied that their targeted returns would be unchanged. CBRE believes that cap rates are likely to remain low in 2021.

0%

20%

40%

60%

90%

Core

Core plus

100%

Value-add

57%

Opportunistic

85%

Distressed assets

20%

Source: Japan Investor Intentions Survey 2021, February 2021.

Lower target return Remain the same Raise target return 80%

100%

JAPAN INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2021

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INVESTORS SWITCH FROM OFFICE Logistics prices may increase further According to the survey, the three most favoured asset types for investors in 2021 are logistics facilities, offices, and residential properties (Figure 10). From the last year’s survey, however, the figures for offices fell by nine points, while the residential sector gained eight points in popularity over the same period.

Investors appear to be adopting a more cautious approach towards investment in office buildings, for which they believe mid-to-long term demand remains unclear, and instead selecting residential properties, which they believe are more likely to provide stable profits.

In terms of purchase prices, investor opinion differs sharply by asset type (Figure 11). Some 16% of respondents suggested that prices for logistics facilities will even exceed sellers’ asking prices, with a further 77% stating that they will at least remain unchanged from prior to the pandemic. Predictions that prices would fall, on the other hand, were made by 49% of respondents for stabilized Grade-A offices, and by 66% of respondents for Grade-A offices with value-add potential, and by over 90% of respondents for retail and hotel sectors.

With rents rising steadily due to robust demand, logistics facilities are likely to become more sought after by investors, with the competition set to inflate transaction prices. While offices, on the other hand, are projected to continue to occupy a central role in investors’ portfolios, increased vacancies and the probability of falling rents may lower the prices buyers are willing to pay. For the retail and hotel sectors, meanwhile, considerable time may be required for demand to recover, and discounts are anticipated to be requested in any transactions.

2019 2020 2021

Figure 1 0 : Preferred sector for investment 60% 50% 40%

33%

29%

30%

20%

20%

10%

7%

10%

1%

0% Industrial and logistics

Office

Residential*

Hotels / Resorts

Other

Retail

* multifamily / private rented / build to rent Source: Japan Investor Intentions Survey 2021, February 2021.

Figure 1 1 : P r i c e d i s c o un ts a n t i c i p a te d b y i n v e s t o rs b y s e c t or Willing to bid above asking price No discount Discount

16%

Logistics

7% 49%

Grade A office (stabilised)

66%

Grade A office (value-add)

92%

High street retail Shopping mall

98%

Hotel

99% 0%

20%

Source: Japan Investor Intentions Survey 2021, February 2021.

40%

60%

80%

100%

JAPAN INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2021

CHANGES IN OFFICE DEMAND EXPECTED TO BE GRADUAL

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Figure 1 2 : Estimated office demand over the next three years 0%

Office demand projected to contract slightly When asked to predict demand for office buildings over the next three years, 65% of investors responded that they anticipated the market to contract slightly (by less than 10%), with 27% predicting no change. While investors appear to be anticipating a weakening of demand for offices as a result of working style reforms, it would appear that they are not expecting any dramatic changes.

The myriad problems facing the introduction of remote working mean that investors seem to be banking on the necessity for a combination of both remote and office-based working in future. A survey of office tenants carried out by CBRE in Japan in October 2020* revealed that the most significant issues facing the introduction of remote working were in the fields of communication, management and the maintenance of physical and mental health. Approximately 70% of respondents believed that offices would continue to be indispensable.

CBRE’s latest survey of investors aligns with these findings, with office buildings selected only behind logistics facilities as the number two sector for targeted investment in 2021. The fact that office transaction volume in 2020 exceeded investment volume in 2019 is further evidence of the deep-seated importance of the role of the office building. Strong interest from investors and an increase in corporate asset sales is likely to ensure that office investment volume will not undergo a dramatic decline over the next year. As a result of potential declines in demand, however, investors are likely to become more selective in their purchases. *CBRE Office Occupier Survey 2020

Decrease significantly (10 to 30%)

20%

40%

65% 27%

Remain the same

Increase significantly (10 to 30%)

Unsure

80%

4%

Decrease slightly (up to 10%)

Increase slightly (up to 10%)

60%

3% 0% 1%

Source: Japan Investor Intentions Survey 2021, February 2021.

JAPAN INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2021

ESG INVESTMENT

JAPAN INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2021

EXPANSION OF INVESTMENT BASED ON ESG CRITERIA ANTICIPATED Japan lags behind other Asia Pacific countries for implementation of ESG criteria Just 28% of Japanese investors currently include Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance (ESG) criteria in their investment policies, a figure significantly below the 49% of investors who do so in the Asia Pacific region as a whole (Figure 13).

It is likely, however, that adoption of investment policies based on ESG criteria will become more common in Japan henceforth. A total of 53% of investors indicated in the survey that they were either planning or considering the implementation of ESG criteria. Furthermore, 29% of Japanese respondents indicated that they plan to invest more than 15% of their AUM in assets at par with ESG criteria, a figure double the 14% recorded by investors in Asia Pacific as a whole (Figure 14).

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Figure 13: ESG adoption status

APAC Japan

50%

38%

40% 30%

28%

20%

19%

15%

10% 0%

Already adopted ESG criteria

Will adopt ESG criteria within the next three to five years

Considering adopting ESG criteria

Unlikely to adopt ESG criteria

Source: Japan Investor Intentions Survey 2021, February 2021.

Figure 14: Assets fulfilling ESG criteria as a target % of total AUM

APAC Japan

50%

It also appears that the pandemic has exerted an impact on the attitudes of Japanese investors towards the adoption of ESG criteria. Some 30% of survey respondents indicated that the pandemic has caused them to take greater consideration of ESG issues. This evidence indicates that investors have become more aware not only of environmental concerns based on energy efficiency, but also of the importance of contributing to the wellbeing of society as a whole through their relationship with building occupants.

40%

34% 29%

27%

30% 20%

10%

10% 0%

Less than 5%

5% - 10%

10% - 15%

15%+

*Percentage of respondents who indicated they are planning or considering implementing ESG-based policies Source: Japan Investor Intentions Survey 2021, February 2021.

JAPAN INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2021

CONCLUSION Japan real estate investment market to remain upbeat in 2021 Despite the prolonged pandemic, real estate investment volume in 2020 increased by 5.2% over the previous year. The results of CBRE’s survey indicate that appetite among Japanese investors remains robust, with activity set to remain upbeat in 2021. With foreign investors also keen to invest, significant capital is expected to continue to flow in from overseas in 2021.

At the same time, the responses given by investors regarding their investment strategies underline their concerns about the growing uncertainty wrought by the mid-to-long term economic and lifestyle changes created by the pandemic.

The survey results show that the most popular strategy for 2021 is to base investment on core assets, a clear indication that stable, mid-to-long term profits are being increasingly prioritised. Primary investment targets are likely to be the logistics, office and housing sectors. With logistics facilities particularly favoured by investors, prices in that sector are likely to continue to rise. Although offices remain an important investment target, investors are likely to become more selective in their office purchases to reduce leasing risks. Under such circumstances, investors are likely to show strong interest in deals that are expected to provide stable income, such as sale-and-lease back deals.

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JAPAN INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2021

SURVEY PROFILE

JAPAN INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2021

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RESPONDENT PROFILE Investor Type

Primarily Responsible Region 2% 4%

10%

Developer / Owner / Operator

7%

APAC (mainly one country)

Real Estate Fund Global (two or three of EMEA, APAC and the Americas)

20%

34%

11%

Bank REIT

APAC (multiple countries)

Others Institutional investor

70%

19%

High Net Worth Individual / Private Individual Investor / Family Office

23%

A total of 137 responses were received.

Institutional investor includes sovereign wealth fund, pension fund and insurance company.

Source: Japan Investor Intentions Survey 2021, February 2021.

For more information about this regional major report, please contact:

For more information regarding global research, please contact:

RESEARCH

Richard Barkham, Ph.D., MRICS Global Chief Economist & Head of Americas Research richard.barkham@cbre.com

Neil Blake, Ph.D. Global Head of Forecasting and Analytics | EMEA Chief Economist neil.blake@cbre.com

Henry Chin, Ph.D. Global Head of Investor Thought Leadership Head of Research, Asia Pacific henry.chin@cbre.com.hk

Spencer Levy Chairman Americas Research & Senior Economic Advisor spencer.levy@cbre.com

Hiroshi Okubo Executive Director hiroshi.okubo@cbre.co.jp

Asuka Honda Director asuka.honda@cbre.co.jp

JAPAN INVESTOR INTENTIONS SURVEY 2021

CBRE RESEARCH This report was prepared by the CBRE Asia Pacific Research Team, which forms part of CBRE Research – a network of preeminent researchers who collaborate to provide real estate market research and econometric forecasting to real estate investors and occupiers around the globe.

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