New Performance Standard 10
Keeping A.I. Smart 18
Dodging Recession 20 JANUARY/ FEBRUARY 2024 www.hpac.com
What’s New? What’s Next? Industry thought leaders weigh in on what we may see in this raucous new year. See pg. 14.
Clarks Remarks: Solar Night Shift? See Page 32
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Contents
January/February 2024 Volume 96 • Number 1
COVER STORY:
HVACR 2024: What’s New? What’s Next?
14
Our annual industry roundtable takes an insightful look at the twists and turns of the year to come. By Rob McManamy
FEATURES 18 Don’t Let
Artificial Intelligence Become Actual Stupidity
As we find ourselves on the brink of yet another tech revolution, it’s still best to proceed with caution while all the kinks get hammered out. By Ken Elovitz, PE
20
More Advances
6 Editor’s Notes
20 HPAC on the Air
Forecasting 2024, with Dodge’s Richard Branch. By Rob McManamy
26
Association board chair assesses 2023, previews remarkably busy 2024. By Mark Colman, ABMA
NEWS & NOTES 10 ASHRAE Releases New Energy and Emissions
Performance Standard for Existing Buildings
Latest, code-ready version expands focus to incorporate building decarbonization. By Karen Buckley Washington, ASHRAE
12 Annual AIA
Consensus Forecast Sees Slowdown
Nevertheless, mix of nine industry forecasts still predicts 4% growth in nonresidential building construction in 2024. Industrial, institutional strength remain evident. By Kermit Baker, FAIA
DEPARTMENTS Want to Leave a Legacy? Be a Mentor. By Rob McManamy
BOILER SYSTEMS ENGINEERING 26 ABMA Eyes
10
32
28 New Products 32 Clark’s Remarks
Still Striving to Make Solar Panels Work at Night By Larry Clark, PE
HPAC Engineering (USPS Permit 464-930, ISSN 0039-0895 print, ISSN 1930-8957 online) is published 6x a year (Jan/Feb,,Mar/Apr , May/Jun, Jul/ Aug, Sep/Oct, Nov/Dec) by Endeavor Business Media, LLC. 201 N Main St 5th Floor, Fort Atkinson, WI 53538. Periodicals postage paid at Fort Atkinson, WI, and additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to HPAC Engineering, PO Box 3257, Northbrook, IL 60065-3257. SUBSCRIPTIONS: Publisher reserves the right to reject non-qualified subscriptions. Subscription prices: U.S. ($ 111.25); Canada/Mexico ($ 123.75); All other countries ($148.75). All subscriptions are payable in U.S. funds. Send subscription inquiries to HPAC Engineering, PO Box 3257, Northbrook, IL 60065-3257. Customer service can be reached toll-free at 877-382-9187 or at HPACengineering@omeda.com for magazine subscription assistance or questions. Printed in the USA. Copyright 2024 Endeavor Business Media, LLC. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopies, recordings, or any information storage or retrieval system without permission from the publisher. Endeavor Business Media, LLC does not assume and hereby disclaims any liability to any person or company for any loss or damage caused by errors or omissions in the material herein, regardless of whether such errors result from negligence, accident, or any other cause whatsoever. The views and opinions in the articles herein are not to be taken as official expressions of the publishers, unless so stated. The publishers do not warrant either expressly or by implication, the factual accuracy of the articles herein, nor do they so warrant any views or opinions by the authors of said articles.
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MEMBERS ONLY WEBINARS
EDITORIAL OFFICE 8001 Lincoln Ave. • Suite 720 Skokie, IL 60077 www.hpac.com EXECUTIVE TEAM CEO: CHRIS FERRELL PRESIDENT: JUNE GRIFFIN COO: PATRICK RAINS CRO: REGGIE LAWRENCE CHIEF DIGITAL OFFICER: JACQUIE NIEMIEC CHIEF ADMINISTRATIVE AND LEGAL OFFICER: TRACY KANE EVP, GROUP PUBLISHER – BUILDINGS/LIGHTING/DIGITAL INFRASTRUCTURE: LESTER CRAFT
EDITORIAL CONTACTS MIKE EBY Group Editorial Director meby@endeavorb2b.com ROB MCMANAMY Editor-in-Chief rmcmanamy@endeavorb2b.com
ASHRAE 90.1-2022: The Path to Net Zero Buildings
DAVID ECKHART Art Director deckhart@endeavorb2b.com
*ON-DEMAND WEBINAR* Recorded Dec. 5, this timely tutorial details how best to employ the new ASHRAE standard to achieve net zero energy use. hpac.com/ 21276887
SALES CONTACTS MIDWEST BILL BOYADJIS 973-829-0648 bboyadjis@endeavorb2b.com
MEMBERS ONLY EXCLUSIVES HPAC 2024: Our January Quiz!
*HAPPY ANNIVERSARY* In 2024, HPAC Engineering marks its 95th year of publication. Help us to celebrate that milestone by taking this short quiz on industry history! Test your knowledge! Win prizes! hpac.com/ 21279139
Soft Landing More Likely, Industry Confidence Strong *MARKETS REPORT* As autumn arrives, U.S. economy continues to exhibit more strength and less cause for dire predictions. hpac.com/ 21273814
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EDITOR’S NOTES
BY ROB MCMANAMY, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
Want to Leave a Legacy? Be a Mentor
M
uch has happened since I last penned one of these columns back before Thanksgiving. Most significantly for me, I lost a beloved older brother after a long illness. And then my wife and children and I all traveled to Ireland over Christmas. That proved much more moving and meaningful for me than I had anticipated, due largely to my brother’s passing. On our pilgrimage to the Emerald Isle, I also became the first of my siblings to actually kiss the fabled Blarney Stone. You’ll have to tell me if that odd practice has made me any more eloquent, as the Irish legend claims. Another passing in December also merits greater attention in any engineering journal. So let me join the chorus of praises here for one Charles H. Thornton, PE, founding Rob McManamy principal of strucEditor-in-Chief tural engineering giant Thornton Tomasetti, New York City. He died Dec. 12 at the age of 83. Like me, Charlie was born in the Bronx, NY. But unlike me, he helped to change the skylines of dozens of cities around the world. At the age of 20, he joined Lev Zetlin Associates in 1960 and later partnered with colleague Richard Tomasetti in 1983 to buy out its ownership and create Thornton Tomasetti. Their firm has been a global player ever since. To date, it has worked on more than 90,000 projects in over 150 countries, serving as structural engineer on six of the world’s 15 tallest buildings. Even with all the fame, fortune, and accolades that came with that skyscraping work, however, the greatest mark that Charlie likely has left on this industry — and society — is his founding in 1994 of the ACE Mentor Program. Now in its 30th year, the nonprofit is dedicated to introducing high school students (particularly from communities of color) to potential careers in the architecture,
construction and engineering industry. In 1994, the program started with 90 students. Incredibly, as of 2020, ACE had grown to boast 75 affiliates across the U.S., teaming over 10,000 students per year with more than 4,100 industry mentors, including several from Thornton Tomasetti. In 2011, ACE Mentor was honored by President Barack Obama with the Presidential Award for Excellence in Science, Mathematics and Engineering Mentoring. In a December interview with ENR magazine, ACE Mentor President Diana Eidenshink, who is also Thornton’s daughter, said, “We estimate that 2,000 people who participate in ACE enter the construction industry every year. (So) it became something bigger than he ever envisioned, beyond his wildest dreams.” To date, the program has produced over 100,000 graduates from 36 states, Puerto Rico and Toronto, according to ACE Mentor. Some 1,500 high schools participate annually, contributing students, of whom over 70% are people of color and about 40% women. All told, the program has also awarded $32.4 million in scholarships. Even my son, now a union carpenter, participated in the ACE Mentor program when he was in high school. So did one of my daughter’s best friends, who is now working at a civil engineering firm in Chicago. So I can attest to the national impact of Thornton’s decision to start the program 30 years ago. That apparently was spurred by one of his old engineering professors at Manhattan College who told Charlie that our industry was losing the next generation. To his everlasting credit, Thornton took that news to heart and literally changed our industry for the better, for decades to come. In 2001, I had the pleasure of meeting Charlie at ENR magazine’s annual awards banquet, which that year was already honoring him as our industry’s “Mentoring Maestro.” More than 20 years later, his good deeds have grown exponentially. And they continue to grow each year. So, thank you, Charlie. Our industry is in your debt. ACE Mentor has established the Charles H. Thornton Memorial Fund. To learn more, visit www.acementor.org/cht-scholarship.
EDITORIAL ADVISORY BOARD: William G. Acker Acker & Associates William P. Bahnfleth, PhD, PE The Pennsylvania State University David W. Bearg, PE Life Energy Associates Don Beaty, PE, FASHRAE DLB Associates Consulting Engineers Lawrence (Larry) Clark, QCxP, GGP, LEED AP+ Sustainable Performance Solutions LLC Peter D’Antonio, PE, CEM, LEED AP PCD Engineering Inc. Kenneth M. Elovitz, PE, Esq. Energy Economics Inc. Thomas Hartman, PE The Hartman Co. Asif Kadiani, PE, CEM Murphy Co. John H. Klote, PE, DSc Valentine A. Lehr, PE, FASHRAE Lehr Consultants International Mark S. Lentz, PE Lentz Engineering Associates Inc. Joel N. Orr, PhD Orr Associates International J. Jay Santos, PE Facility Dynamics Engineering Andrew J. Streifel, MPH University of Minnesota James P. Waltz, PE, CEM, ACFE Energy Resource Assoc. Inc. Michael K. West, PhD, PE Advantek Consulting Ron Wilkinson, PE, LEED AP Wilkinson Commissioning Management Gerald J. Williams, PE, LEED AP 8760 Engineering LLC
6 HPAC ENGINEERING JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2024
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NEWS & NOTES
ASHRAE Releases New Energy and Emissions Performance Standard for Existing Buildings
Latest, code-ready version expands focus to incorporate building decarbonization. ANSI
By KAREN BUCKLEY WASHINGTON, ASHRAE
A
SHRAE has released the latest version of its energy efficiency standard for existing buildings, with an expanded focus to incorporate building decarbonization. ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 1002024, Energy and Emissions Building Performance Standard for Existing Buildings is a code-ready performance standard that provides processes and procedures for reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions through improved energy efficiency and performance of all types of existing buildings, including residential, commercial, institutional, and industrial. The latest edition of the standard includes carbon emissions performance requirements for existing buildings, as well as emissions targets for dozens of building types.
“As the demand grows for reduced energy use and carbon emission in existing building, there has been heightened interest in Standard 100 within the past year for its potential to shape building regulations on an expanded level,” said 2023-24 ASHRAE President Ginger Scoggins, P.E., Fellow ASHRAE. “The development of this revised standard underscores our commitment to advancing sustainability
measures and responding to the evolving needs of the industry.” Key updates to the performance standard are as follows: • New metrics provided for establishing greenhouse gas emissions targets, along with continued improvements to energy efficiency and performance in existing buildings; • Building requirements to: Establish an energy management plan incorporating efficient, low-carbon equipment into capital replacement; Achieve energy and emissions performance goals; Implement an operations and maintenance program for continued building performance. • Simple compliance mechanism for energy-efficient and low-emission buildings; • Energy audit and decarbonization assessment and a separate compliance process for building types that do not have energy or emissions targets; • Guidance for jurisdictions seeking to develop their own energy
consumption and/or greenhouse gas emissions targets. To purchase Standard 100-2024, visit ashrae.org/bookstore or contact ASHRAE Customer Contact Center at 1-800-527-4723 (United States and Canada), 404-636-8400 (worldwide) or fax 678-539-2129.
About ASHRAE
Founded in 1894, ASHRAE is a global professional society committed to serve humanity by advancing the arts and sciences of heating ventilation, air conditioning, refrigeration and their allied fields. As an industry leader in research, standards writing, publishing, certification and continuing education, ASHRAE and its members are dedicated to promoting a healthy and sustainable built environment for all, through strategic partnerships with organizations in the HVAC&R community and across related industries. For more, contact Karen Buckley Washington, ASHRAE Senior Public Relations Specialist, kbwashington@ashrae.org.
10 HPAC ENGINEERING JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2024
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NEWS & NOTES
Annual AIA Consensus Forecast Sees Slowdown
Nevertheless, mix of nine industry forecasts still predicts 4% growth in nonresidential building construction in 2024. Industrial, institutional strength remain evident. By KERMIT BAKER, PhD, FAIA, Chief Economist, American Institute of Architects
A
fter increasing by more than 20% last year, spending on nonresidential buildings will see a much more modest 4% increase in 2024, at a pace that will slow to just over 1% growth in 2025. Spending on commercial facilities will be flat this year and next, manufacturing construction will increase almost 10% this year before stabilizing in 2025, and institutional construction will see mid-single-digit gains this year and next. These are the key conclusions from the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast panelists, a group comprised of the leading construction forecasters from across the country. This survey provides the most recent update of nonresidential building forecasts for 2024 and provides the first look at 2025. This past year produced a surprisingly strong performance for the building sector of the economy.
Consensus
2023
2024
2025
—
4.0
1.2
Commercial Total
—
-0.7
0.2
Office
—
-1.7
-0.7
Retail & Other Commercial
—
-1.2
-0.4
Hotel
—
7.4
5.9
Industrial Total
—
8.9
-0.8
Institutional Total
—
5.1
3.1
Health
—
3.6
3.5
Education
—
5.8
3.9
Religious
—
1.1
1.0
Public Safety
—
9.8
3.6
Amusement & Recreation
—
3.7
3.1
S&P Global, Market Intelligence
FMI ConstructConnect Associated Builders & Contractors Wells Fargo Securities Markstein Advisors Piedmont Crescent Capital
sector alone produced almost 30% of overall spending on nonresidential buildings last year. However, manufacturing was not the only bright light. On the commercial side, spending on offices was up an estimated 8%, retail and other commercial facilities 7%, and hotels 21%. The institutional sector did equally well, with healthcare and education spending both up an estimated 13%. Religious and public safety facilities
After an unusually strong performance in 2023, the construction sector will see weaker conditions this year and next. —AIA
The healthy spending rebound of almost 12% in 2022 came on the heels of only modest growth in 2020 and a decline of almost 5% in 2021, before spending accelerated to an estimated 22% in 2023. Manufacturing construction accounted for a large share of these gains as this
Forecast % Change
Nonresidential Total
Dodge Construction Network
Moody’s Analytics
Actual $
each increased at a double-digit pace, and the amusement and recreation category grew to over 8%. Recently-enacted federal programs provided some of the latest boosts to construction spending on buildings. The CHIPS and Science Act, enacted in August 2022, has boosted
manufacturing spending by providing funding to high-tech hubs and semiconductor manufacturing. The Inflation Adjustment Act, also enacted in August 2022, has provided funding for the electrification of homes as well as financial incentives for energyefficient commercial reconstruction and building. Finally, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, enacted in November 2021, provides funding for traditional infrastructure, which eventually will encourage more building construction in conjunction with these infrastructure investments. The AIA Consensus Forecast combines the work of Dodge Construction Network; S&P Global Market Intelligence; Moody’s Analytics; FMI Corp.; ConstructConnect; Associated Builders & Contractors; Wells Fargo Securities; Markstein Advisors; and Piedmont Crescent Capital. To view details of individual forecasts, go to www.aia. org/resource-center/january-2024-aiaconsensus-construction-forecast.
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COVER STORY WHAT’S NEW? WHAT’S NEXT?
HVACR 2024: What’s New? What’s Next? Nostal6ie/iStock/Getty Images Plus
Our annual industry roundtable takes an insightful look at the twists and turns of the year to come.
By ROB MCMANAMY, Editor-in-Chief, HPAC Engineering
GINGER SCOGGINS, PE ASHRAE Fellow, 2023-24 ASHRAE President
s 2024 gathers momentum, our industry is facing a slew of regulatory changes, an ongoing post-pandemic IAQ revolution, an economy that continues to confound expectations, and a global geopolitical climate as unsettled as the climate, itself. With all that in mind, HPAC Engineering once again contacted several industry thought leaders, to get their perspectives on what we should all be looking for in the months ahead. From decarbonization and next-gen recruitment to energy efficiency and artificial intelligence, their answers lay out a dizzying array of challenges and opportunities that will only get more complicated in yet another controversial U.S. election year. We asked, “What’s new for 2024? And what’s next?”
Decarbonizing the built environment will require an incredibly broad array of actions and ASHRAE is proud to be at the forefront through the development of standards and guidelines that address embodied and operational carbon, as well as energy efficiency. The pledge that many countries just made at COP28 to triple the world’s renewable energy capacity and douScoggins ble energy efficiency by 2030 will be a huge step forward in achieving climate change goals and ASHRAE stands ready to provide leadership through our technical guidance and advocacy.
A
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As ASHRAE remains committed to addressing the climate crisis through its focus on building decarbonization, artificial intelligence (A.I.) is expected to influence HVACR broadly in the areas of enhanced energy efficiency of systems through real-time performance data, smart building management, fault detection and improved indoor air quality (IAQ), among other insights. This will be an evolving area for our industry. ASHRAE is also determined to engage with the next generation. The Society recognizes the importance of fostering a vibrant community of young professionals and is actively engaging with several programs and strategies aimed at attracting, supporting, and empowering emerging talents in the HVACR industry. Toward that end, the Young Engineers in ASHRAE (YEA) facilitates networking events, mentorship programs and educational resources specifically designed to support the unique needs and aspirations of early-career engineers. ASHRAE also invests in the future of the industry by providing scholarships and research grants to students pursuing careers in HVACR. These opportunities not only alleviate financial burdens but also encourage academic excellence and innovation.
DEREK ENSIGN, PE, CEM, CxA, LEED AP Director, Energy Design Engineering, Southland Industries The HVAC industry is currently undergoing a paradigm shift with significant challenges affecting all entities — from manufacturers and engineers to contractors and owners. Although the industry is still facing material challenges and component shortages resulting in long lead times, there are emerging challenges that are even more impactful for the long term. Ensign This industry has long trended toward incremental improvement in equipment, products, and system/design approaches to meet evolving energy codes and standards. Yet, there are new agents of change in the HVAC market provoking trends and awareness on environmental impact. Such new challenges not only include exceeding energy efficiency requirements, but they encompass developing new equipment, strategies, and design approaches to meet the additional demands of refrigerant phasedown and reductions in GWP, decarbonization/electrification, emissions, and carbon footprint, while improving sustainability. Currently, with multiple variables in a dynamic state of change, emerging trends can be unpredictable.
Despite the challenges, the industry is responding to changes with advancements in technology such as new diverse offerings and applications of heat pumps coupled with renewable energy microgrids, including solar photovoltaic, battery energy storage, and co-generation. Although the current and future industry trends are still evolving, the industry is continually improving towards resiliency, reliability, and efficiency to minimize global impact.
PAUL DOHERTY, IFMA Fellow, Design Futures Council Senior Fellow, Chairman, The Digit Group This year will see a tsunami of hype-based technology solutions for our industry, led by Large Language Models (LLM), better known in the mass media as Artificial Intelligence (A.I.). The incumbent software giants in our industry are already jumping on the A.I. bandwagon with marketing hype, while useful and functional solutions from startups like Doherty SpecGPT are ushering in the next generation of transformational and practical solutions for our industry. SpecGPT creates Specifications for projects that usually take weeks into quality specs in seconds. This challenges a designer’s financial model of hourly fees into another value model that is yet to be defined. A.I. and other Web 3 tools are also being explored in defining the Metaverse. The Metaverse as a 3D view of the Internet requires functional elements to deliver an Industrial Metaverse that provides industrial values for many members of the construction industry. Smart Contracts, Token-based project payments, XBRL-driven payment solutions, Blockchain, Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), Virtual Worlds, and Digital Twins are the Web 3 tools that are enabling the Metaverse to emerge as our take on the immediate future. A.I. will not take your job, but someone using A.I. will!
DAVID W. BEARG, PE Life Energy Associates, Member, HPAC Editorial Advisory Board As I predicted last year, there are now more companies offering services for using monitoring systems to achieve the all important healthy indoor environments in buildings. When one considers the costs and benefits associated with worker productivity, compared with energy or rental costs, there is a huge need to continuously assess ventilation performance. JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2024 HPAC ENGINEERING 15
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COVER STORY WHAT’S NEW? WHAT’S NEXT? Remembering the fact that one needs to measure what is to be managed, the goal should be to determine if the intended amount of ventilation is actually being delivered to a building’s occupants. Accurate monitoring of in-space carbon dioxide (CO2) levels can get you there, but the challenge here is getting accurate measurements of this parameter, as this can be very difficult to achieve in the real world. One thing I find very interesting about these offerings is that they all claim to offer the best-in-class sensors. That’s a lofty goal, of course, but difficult to actually achieve. I wonder whether such claims can be achieved over time, so I plan to monitor the situation in the future. I’m reminded of the Garbage In / Garbage Out (GIGO) problem that has plagued computer systems since the beginning. With that in mind, my prediction is that individual monitoring sensors will prove to not be as accurate as advertised.
THOMAS HARTMAN, PE The Hartman Co., HPAC Editorial Advisory Board member Admittedly, our industry’s efforts toward reducing building energy use over the last several decades has seemingly followed Einstein’s definition of insanity – “doing the same
thing over and over again and expecting different results.” For despite the continuous focus on standards, codes, training, and more integrated design practices, today’s buildings remain only marginally more energy efficient than they were decades ago. But recent developments will enable new approaches this year: First, people have begun to directly experience firsthand the disruptive effects of GHG emissions on the climate. Second, ASHRAE has doubled down on its commitment to support others in the industry by wholeheartedly endorsing 2050 as the date to achieve complete decarbonization of all buildings. These new realities will lead the industry to finally adopt the position it has been avoiding for too long – demanding accountability for actual building energy performance. So, what’s new? In 2024, we will see a change from simulation results to actual building energy use as the metric by which building energy performance is judged. And what’s next? New firms, and those expanding their services, will step in with comprehensive support services in addition to energy monitoring to assess accountability and oversee remediation as needed to ensure that the expected high level of energy performance is both achieved and maintained.
MIKE WOLF, PE 2023-2024 president, Air Movement and Control Association (AMCA) International
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New performance regulations for commercial and industrial fans and blowers sold in the United States are now in effect. These regulations include a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) test procedure, impending national DOE energy standards, and an efficiency mandate from the California Energy Commission (CEC). AMCA has engaged collaboratively with the DOE, the CEC, and industry partners from the start to develop practical rules that balance energy conservation, emissions reduction, and ease of implementation. Our shared aim has been to craft straightforward requirements that effectively serve manufacturers, practitioners, asset owners, and the environment. Efforts to bring data-submittal and verified labeling specifications in line with the new regulations continue. AMCA staff and members have maintained close coordination with both the DOE and the CEC to incorporate required certification elements into an enhanced AMCA Certified Ratings Program (CRP). By integrating federal and state database and reporting mandates directly into the CRP, we aim to streamline compliance for AMCA members while promoting consistency and reliability for end users. This collaborative approach will facilitate costeffective implementation across our industry as the new performance standards and procedures evolve.
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ELIZABETH BEARDSLEY Senior Policy Counsel, U.S. Green Building Council Sustainability will continue to become more mainstream in 2024, because it is simply good business. Our community has been working for years to show that better buildings are not only possible, but that they pay dividends through benefits to communities, workforce, competition, and reducing risk. I see growing awareness in corporations, insurance, and finance, that buildings can be low- and zero emission, healthy, and resilient – this is not just a future aspiration. The technologies are available now. This broad awareness, along with drivers in the Inflation Beardsley Reduction Act incentives and state and local policies, will translate into more green buildings, with more focus on retrofits and low carbon materials. We will also see some cities looking to partner with commercial real estate owners to reimagine their downtowns, creating the prospect for climate-friendly innovations. We truly are in an exciting time for sustainable buildings!
JEFFREY BEEDEN, PE President, New Jersey Chapter, American Society of Plumbing Engineers It was in the early spring of 2012. Our firm was designing an upgrade to the emergency generators serving a local hospital and I was on my way out of the building. As I made my way through the main corridor, I took note of some of the awards in the trophy case- one award in particular caught my eye. The award proudly announced the building had won the “All-Electric Building Award”. The building was constructed in 1971, so just shy of the energy crisis, when it was cool to have your building heated, cooled, illuminated, and well, everything else with electric. In a few years, it wasn’t so cool anymore. Nowadays, making your building heated, cooled, illuminated, and well, everything else done with electric is cool again. I mean, even major cities are mandating it, so it must be the thing to do, right? But domestic water heating is going to get a lot more difficult. You won’t be able to just run gas to a water heater soon. You’ll need a refrigeration-based heat pump with a non-ozone-depleting, low-global-warming-potential refrigerant (that’s only slightly flammable) and it will be cool… cool air coming off your water heater!
JOHNNY TUNDRA, Cold-Weather Engineer (aka Ron Wilkinson, PE, LEED AP) Even in semi-retirement, Johnny Tundra will continue to be flummoxed by digital control systems, believing there was never a substantial improvement over the mercury thermometer. A mysterious millennial engineer will be providing him with ever more elegant and efficient solutions to comfort, safety and reliability issues with algorithms and, yes, the feared A.I. And even more surprising, it will be a girl! Says Johnny, “That vegetable garden is looking better every day…”
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COVER STORY WHAT’S NEW? WHAT’S NEXT?
Don’t Let Artificial Intelligence Become Actual Stupidity As we find ourselves on the brink of yet another tech revolution, it’s still best to proceed with caution while all the kinks get hammered out.
B
uckle up. The future is knocking on the door to our industry yet again. Believe it or not, Artificial Intelligence (AI) search tools like ChatGPT may soon become common in engineering practice. These tools use “Large Language Models” to search huge volumes of text. They return quick results based on common word patterns in the database. Therefore, AI search results reflect both content and context. The search algorithms retrain or “learn” based on feedback from user evaluations of AI responses. While Large Language Models analyze enormous volumes of text quickly, they can also produce irrelevant or
Photo 184027122 © BiancoBlue | Dreamstime.com
By KEN ELOVITZ, P.E. Esq., Energy Economics, Inc.
even incorrect responses. As a result, they are not a substitute for engineering judgment. Here are some dangers inherent in using AI for engineering research, based on recent searches conducted by the author:
Results Might Not be Up-to-Date
A December 2023 inquiry to ChatGPT on “ashrae handbook cooling load calculation method” returned a brief discussion of the CLTD/CLF method. The discussion seemed accurate, but the ChatGPT response also said it was last updated in January 2022 and it included a disclaimer that there might be more recent information. Indeed, Chapter 18 of the 2021 ASHRAE Handbook Fundamentals discusses mostly the ‘Heat Balance Method’ and its derivative ‘Radiant Time Series Method’. CLTD/ CLF is also mentioned in the last section of that chapter as a valid method, but it is not regarded in the handbook as the current “state of the art.” Therefore, ChatGPT’s answer was not up-to-date and not fully responsive to the inquiry. So, the risk that search results might not be up to date diminishes the utility of the tool.
Responses Do Not Always Address the Question
While reading the December 2023 issue of ASHRAE Journal, its article on potential conflicts between two ASHRAE ventilation standards, Standard 62.1 (Ventilation for Acceptable Indoor Air Quality) and Standard 170 (Ventilation of Health Care Facilities), caught my attention. As a test, I asked ChatGPT about “meeting ASHRAE standards 62 and 170” returned only a brief, general 18 HPAC ENGINEERING JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2024 2005HPAC_Shortridge_AirData.indd 1
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discussion of the scopes of the two standards. It then concluded that “To meet these standards, designers, engineers, and facility managers need to carefully review and implement the specific requirements outlined in ASHRAE 62 and 170.” Therefore the response did little more than restate the inquiry. It did not provide the requested guidance on how to meet both standards at the same time.
Responses Do Not Have References or Citations
Another article in that same issue of ASHRAE Journal discusses the need for field data to validate ground source heat pump design models. The particular concern is ground heat exchanger temperature changes over time. The article cites two systems where ground temperatures rose enough over time to interfere with proper cooling system performance. The author identified two factors likely to influence the success of a ground source heat exchanger. The first is the size of ancillary loads like pump and fan heat. The other is the annual balance between heat withdrawal and heat rejection. With that in mind, I asked ChatGPT for advice on “ground source heat pump temperature rise over time.” The response identified some general factors that affect ground heat exchanger performance but did not provide engineering insight or the basis for its assertions. For example: • ChatGPT reported that seasonal variation in the difference between ground temperature and air temperature affects heat transfer to the ground. That assertion needs substantiation because the heat transfer of interest is from water (or refrigerant) to the ground. Air temperature is not the operative factor and affects water temperature only indirectly as it affects load; • The response also said “Oversizing or undersizing the system can impact its ability to extract or reject heat efficiently.” It did not say which system actually has the concern for over- or under-sizing: the building HVAC system or the ground heat exchanger; • ChatGPT reported “Over extended periods, there can be slow changes in the ground temperature due to factors like climate change, urbanization, or alterations in land use.” However, it did not discuss the direction of ground temperature change (up or down). It also did not mention the annual balance between heating and cooling load, which the ASHRAE Journal article specifically mentions as important. Without citations, it is hard to know whether the sources that ChatGPT uses are relevant to the situation that prompted the inquiry. Wikipedia has been criticized as not necessarily reliable because almost anyone can contribute to that database. At least most assertions in Wikipedia have references to their source, however.
Of course, A.I. and Large Language Models are new and developing technology. But it is important to remember that they only find, organize, and present content. They do not create content (at least not yet). So A.I. is not really new in terms of using the technology responsibly in professional practice. Indeed, it is easy to substitute “A.I.” for “computers” in this quote from 2014: Computers have significantly reduced repetitive calculation for engineers and provided convenient ways to demonstrate, save, and transfer engineering products. Computers are not time bombs as long as engineers keep in mind that, similar to slide rules and calculators, computers are tools to assist them in solving problems. Computers are not decision makers. [So] engineers always should double-check computer-generated calculations.1
References
Wang, Yijun, “The Computer in Engineering: Tool or Time Bomb?” HPAC Engineering, Vol. 86, No. 3, March 2014, also available at hpac.com/print/content/20927517. 1
A longtime member of HPAC Engineering’s Editorial Advisory Board, Kenneth M. Elovitz, P.E., Esq., is an engineer (mechanical and electrical) and in-house counsel for Energy Economics, Inc., a consulting engineering firm in Foxboro, MA.
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HPAC ON THE AIR
HIGHLIGHTS FROM OUR MONTHLY PODCAST
Forecasting 2024, with Dodge’s Richard Branch For our first podcast of the new year, we spoke with one of our industry’s leading economists about the prospects ahead for design and construction.
W
ith another tumultuous year now in the books, HPAC ‘On The Air’ was pleased to kick off the new year with Dodge Construction Network’s chief economist, Richard Branch. One of the industry’s most informed and respected forecasters, Branch explained to us why he has such an upbeat outlook for 2024. How did we manage to avoid that long-predicted recession? What potential roadblocks are still out there? Which markets hold the most promise? For our full discussion audio, listen online at hpac. com. For an edited transcript of our conversation, read on... HPAC: Happy New Year everyone, and welcome to HPAC On The Air’s first episode of 2024. We are thrilled to kick off the new year with our first guest, Richard Branch, Chief Economist for Dodge Construction Network, our industry’s oldest and most experienced data analyst and market forecaster. Incredibly, the firm has been at this since it was first started by F.W. Dodge more than 130 years ago in 1891. So Dodge was already crunching industry numbers for nearly 40 years before HPAC Engineering even began publishing in 1929, 95 years ago. For his part, Mr. Branch is now in his 14th year at Dodge where he leads the prolific and growing economics group that monitors continuous data on U.S. construction starts, and maintains the monthly Dodge Momentum Index, among many other things. That index is a measure designed to be forward-looking and predictive of where our industry is headed.
Toward that end, every November now for the last 85 years, Dodge has released its annual construction outlook forecast for the coming year, which is what brings us together today. So Mr. Branch, welcome.
Richard Branch: Thanks Rob. It’s great to be here. HPAC: Thanks so much for joining us during your busy season for forecasting. We’re recording this just before the holidays. Before we dive into your 2024 outlook, please tell us a little bit more about yourself and Dodge Construction Network.
Branch: As you pointed out, Dodge as a company has been around for well over a 100 years. Essentially, what we do is track construction projects from their earliest germination in planning all the way through to breaking ground, which is what we call a start. So not only are we tracking the physical attributes of those projects — i.e.
where it is, what kind of building it is, how big it is, how expensive it is — we’re also tracking who’s working on the project, who wants to work on the project, as well as what products are being spec’d, etc. So it’s a huge sandbox of data that we get to play in. And just to give you a little perspective on that, we’re entering several thousand new projects in our database every month. So what I do, as the chief economist here, is essentially our market sizing part of the business. And what we’re forecasting is whether these construction verticals — like office or single-family or roads and bridges — are going to grow or contract in the year to come. And actually our forecast goes out over five years, so essentially we’re serving as a strategic partner for our clients. We’re giving them that roadmap of where we think the economy is going to go and where we think the construction sector will go with it. We forecast across 22 different verticals from residential, non-residential
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building and infrastructure at the national level, all the way down to the 3,000-plus counties in the United States. So it is an expansive set of data that I am fortunate enough to get to play with every day. HPAC: As you say, Dodge has been at this for over a century, which means it has seen some truly extraordinary historical events. Of course, the last few years with the pandemic and both domestic and international political tumult has certainly added to that. What has it been like to try to forecast the world economy in a climate as extraordinary as this?
Branch: It’s not been easy, I’ll tell you that. But as I think about it, and I think you just used the word ‘extraordinary.’ That really, I think, is a great word to use because, as we look back over previous economic cycles, whether it’s the Great Recession; whether it’s the tech bubble burst; whether it’s back to the 1980s, the 1970s; we have this long data set of history. As I look back on all that, the issues that we’re facing now, maybe not the exact issues, but the questions we’re asking ourselves and the questions we’re asking of the data, haven’t really changed that much. We’re essentially questioning how these statistical relationships match up. And I’ll give you a couple of examples of one from the past, and one from right now. If you go back to the Great Recession, we were questioning then how the linkage between retail construction and retail sales broke apart? Because of e-commerce, right? So that statistical model broke and we had to adjust it and change. We’re seeing the same thing now as it relates to remote and hybrid work, changing how we look at the office market. So, as I think about the sector and what causes these downturns, essentially it leads to an evolution in the construction market and, in that way, this current cycle isn’t really
Branch (left) delivered his latest forecast at the Dodge Outlook 2024 conference in Dallas in late November.
different. This is just another evolution in the construction sector. I do think though, what’s different about this last couple of years, starting with the pandemic up to now, is that a lot of those risks that we’re talking about, especially on the geopolitical side, are harder to predict and harder to quantify, whether it’s Israel, Hamas, Ukraine, Russia, China, Taiwan, even political risk here at home. And what I mean by risk here is whether Congress will pass the appropriation bills to fund infrastructure construction in 2024. These current episodes that we’re trying to see our way through, if I could talk about my feelings for a little bit here... These situations just feel much more acute than what we’ve seen in past cycles. HPAC: Okay, let’s get into some specifics of what Dodge foresees for 2024. What is your prediction for construction overall, and which markets do you think will lead the way? And which markets seem most likely to decline?
Branch: Well, let’s step back for a moment and talk about how the
market played out in 2023. If we look back, I would say the sector really bifurcated in a very significant way. On one side of the plate, we had publicly funded construction which did rather well last year. The other side of that was the private side of the market, whether that’s in residential or in private buildings, that didn’t do well and suffered quite a bit. As we think about how that’s going to change in 2024, I don’t see that narrative shifting too much. I continue to think that the public side of the market will outgrow the private side. Let’s go forward from here and break that discussion down. If we look at the public sector, the dollars flowing from the Infrastructure Act are coursing into the system and causing double-digit growth across most of our infrastructure categories, whether it’s highways, bridges, water, sewer, etc. So there is really tremendous opportunity in the infrastructure markets. Those public dollars, though, also spread beyond just infrastructure. If you look at the CHIPS Act in 2022, and the Inflation Reduction Act in 2023, we saw a record level of manufacturing construction in our data. The
JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2024 HPAC ENGINEERING 21
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HPAC ON THE AIR
HIGHLIGHTS FROM OUR MONTHLY PODCAST
Total Construction Starts (Billions of Dollars)
$1,500
Dodge Construction Network
$1,200 $900 $600
5% $862
-6% $806
2019
2020
17% $940
19% $1,117
1% $1,124
2022
2023
7% $1,206
$300 $0
2021
2024
Institutional Construction Starts
(Billions of Dollars—Includes health care, public, recreation, transportation)
$250
Dodge Construction Network
$200 $150 $100
1% $144
-9% $131
9% $143
23% $176
7% $188
3% $194
2023
2024
$50 $0
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023 total looks like it’s just coming in maybe 4-5% lower than it was in 2022, but those are all public dollars flowing into that market, as well, supporting construction. Public laboratory construction, which is part of our education sector is doing rather well, too. K-12 school construction is doing well, and healthcare and other public sector projects also are performing rather nicely. HPAC: So far, that’s all encouraging news. But what about the commercial markets?
Branch: The sticky wicket is more on the private side of the market. But I do think as we look at the data, and you mentioned the Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) before, which tracks nonresidential projects, whether they’re public or private, when they first enter those early stages of planning. So those projects would have an architect and a general contractor, but they haven’t yet broken ground. When we look at the DMI, it’s very strong. It’s a very high level and very stable. So that gives us hope that especially on the private side of the market, that we’re going to see growth in 2024. I think that starts with residential. We’re looking at small gains, not robust gains, in single family and multifamily in 2024. But that inflection point we think in single family has already happened and that momentum is building. We think multifamily joins the party in 2024, so that’s a big
change in tonality for construction after two years of decline in the residential sector. So that’s a big positive, small gain. But a gain and a positive is a positive, and we’ll take it. Looking at traditional income property types, i.e. hotels, retail, warehouse, offices, that’s still a little mixed, right? When you look at retail and hotel, we think those markets will be very solid in 2024. Retail construction, feeding off the residential growth and hotels feeding off this continued “revenge travel” and the fact that hotel fundamentals are in really solid shape. I’ll throw data centers in there, as well. We track data centers under the office sector as a standalone category. That construction is really solid, but we need to draw the line there and the curtain needs to come down. Because when we look at new office construction and warehouse activity, we think that market will continue to contract in 2024. So, certainly, still winners and losers, but I think there’s going to be more winners than losers in 2024, and that’s very different from 2023, when you total the whole market up. For res, non-res building and infrastructure in 2023, we were looking at 1% growth. But for total construction in 2024, we’re looking at 7%. So, a much more positive market we think for the new year. HPAC: Certainly good to hear. One remarkable undercurrent of all this is that the long-predicted recession never actually showed up. There was much talk about it for over a year now, if not two years. So have we ‘dodged’ that bullet?
Branch: To be honest, I’m afraid to answer that because as soon as I do, something bad might happen. But you’re right. The world press has spent much of the last 12-18 months thinking recession, and we were never in that camp. If we go back a year, year and a half ago, we were pretty consistent in saying that the U.S. economy would avoid recession in 2023, and that turned out to be the case. Of course, as we look forward, the chances of recession in 2024 are not zero. When we think about that geopolitical risk that we commented on earlier, for example, if we see energy prices spike up because of an expansion in the war in the Middle East, that could certainly be a recession-inducing event. So the odds are not zero, but I think they are significantly reduced from what we were talking about in 2023. And I think what’s part of that reduction in those odds of recession is how we view the Fed and where we think interest rates will go. If you’re Fed Chair Jerome Powell, you’re probably thinking, all right, we’re in good shape here and we can probably stand pat and hold interest rates where they are for the time being and let the market take inflation lower. So if you believe that, and that’s what we believe in our forecast, then the next question is, well, what happens next?
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11/8/23 11:59 1/17/2024 2:52:13 PMAM
HPAC ON THE AIR
HIGHLIGHTS FROM OUR MONTHLY PODCAST
It is built into our forecast that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in maybe June or July of 2024. But we need to be cognizant of the fact that that easing and monetary policy is going to be very slow and methodical. If we want to do some quick math here, the current Fed funds rate is in a range of 5.25 to 5.5%. To totally “normalize” interest rates, in other words, bring them down to around 2.5%, the Fed’s going to have to cut rates by three percentage points in our forecast. But we don’t see that full normalization happening until early 2026. So we’re looking at basically a quarter basis point reduction in the Fed funds rate starting in Q3 of 2024, and then another quarter basis point each quarter after that. They’re going to take their sweet time on this to make sure they’ve truly got that inflation monster beat down. When you think about the impact on the construction sector, we all know that it is one of the most interest-rate sensitive sectors in the economy. So the fact that we’re going to be in this high interest rate environment for the foreseeable future really means that the recovery, particularly in residential and in those income property types, is going to be slow to materialize in 2024. HPAC: Regarding the Fed, I remember a remarkable quote that you said in your forecast a year ago. You had said then that you felt like the Fed was so focused on bringing down inflation, that it was “willing to break the back of the U.S. economy,” if it had to. I guess we should all be happy it never came to that.
Branch: Yes. I think if there’s one thing that really surprised me when I look back on 2023, as a whole, it’s that everybody, every forecaster I can think of actually underforecasted the resilience in the U.S. economy, particularly for GDP and consumer spending. It outperformed pretty much through the course of the year. So you’re right. The fact that the U.S. economy withstood aggressive interest rate increases over the last several years and still held pat, and continues to grow over that time, is really an amazing testament to the strength of U.S. businesses and U.S. consumers. HPAC: So looking ahead, aside from the statistics, Dodge is also gathering industry intelligence throughout the year. What other types of issues are you hearing in the marketplace that will affect how projects actually become reality in the months and years to come?
Branch: Great question. Well, if you were to put 100 contractors, building products manufacturers, distributors, etc., in a room, and ask them, ‘What is the biggest risk your business is currently facing?’ Over the next year, without a doubt,
Commercial Construction Starts
(Billions of Dollars—Includes stores, office, warehouses, hotels, parking)
$180 $160 $140 $120 $100
Dodge Construction Network
28% $166 14% $139
$80
-19% $112
15% $129
-6% $156
-2% $153
2023
2024
$60 $40 $20 $0
2019
2020
2021
2022
Manufacturing Construction Starts $140
(Billions of Dollars)
Dodge Construction Network
$120 $100
217%
$80
16%
$102
-5%
2022
2023
$112
$97
$60 $40 $20 $0
4% $34
94% -50%
$32
2020
2021
$17
2019
2024
they’re going to say their number one issue is a shortage of skilled labor. That’s a huge systemic risk that the sector faces as we go forward. And it’s not one that’s easily addressable. So technology I think can play a huge part in that. At our recent Outlook conference in Dallas, we had a great panel on the digitization of building plans and how new technologies, including artifical intelligence (A.I.), can help streamline the pre-construction side of the business. Of course, it’s hard to have A.I. on a jobsite, right? I mean, A.I. can’t build a wall; it can’t do plumbing. But A.I. can help potentially in streamlining design and specification. As a result, those projects could move through quicker to construction, and potentially start more efficiently and cheaper. So that changes the calculus of ‘go’. So are we seeing that now? I don’t know if I have insight onto that, quite frankly, but I do think that with the pressure put on the sector by lack of labor that the opportunity is there for construction to adopt new technologies. And maybe a final point on that is if you look around the sector, we’re seeing a lot of, I’ll call them non-construction tech firms, starting to get interested in working in the construction sector. I think that’s a huge, huge positive in terms of increasing productivity and therefore profitability over the next few years.
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BOILER SYSTEMS ENGINEERING
ABMA Eyes More Advances ABMA
Association board chair assesses 2023, previews remarkably busy 2024.
The author (front, sixth from left) and all of ABMA stand ready to meet the challenges of 2024. By MARK COLMAN, Chairman American Boiler Manufacturers Association
L
ooking back, 2023 was a good year for the boiler industry. Sales for new boiler equipment and repair and maintenance projects were strong throughout 2023. Many of the projects that were slowed or halted during COVID came back to life in late 2022 and 2023. Of course, the inflationary pressures that all of us faced did make it challenging. So, we had to work hard to manage the risk of rising prices. For the companies that were successful in managing that risk, it was a very good year. The other big challenge in 2023 was finding and retaining workers. Many companies in our industry, along with ABMA, are actively working with trade schools and universities to promote the great careers that exist in this industry. Overall, I feel we are doing really well at developing the workforce needed to drive our industry forward. With regards to the association, itself, 2023 was a phenomenal year. We saw record growth in new members.
And as part of our strategic objective to make ABMA the home for the entire boiler supply chain, we opened our membership to sales representatives, as well. These companies work with and represent active ABMA members. We had very strong interest from these sales representatives, many of whom joined ABMA as members in 2023. Focused on that supply chain, preparations are now well under way for Boiler 2024, ABMA’s Boiler Technology Conference & Expo, which is shaping up to be another amazing event with around 100 exhibitors. Boiler 2024 will be held at the Gaylord Rockies in Denver, Colorado, which is a beautiful property. The event will be a fun and educational experience for all who attend. In addition to preparing for Denver, the ABMA staff has been working hard at executing the organization’s strategic objectives and bringing real value to the membership. The 2023 Annual Meeting in San Diego was a wonderful event, although a little soggy, and the 2023 Summer Meeting in British Columbia was truly special, set in a very beautiful part of our world. ABMA wrapped up 2023 in a sound
financial position and is well situated to support and promote the boiler industry for another 100-plus years.
What ABMA Expects to See in 2024
This year appears to be starting out with the same strong demand that we saw in 2023. We expect that business will continue to be driven by the demand for improved boiler efficiencies and legislative initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act. As our customers continue to figure out their path to decarbonization, the boiler industry will be there to support them. Of course, there has been a lot of talk over the last year about a possible economic recession but at this point, that is looking less and less likely. The great news is that inflationary pressures are easing and there now seems to be a glimmer of hope that the labor markets are improving. Also, there are positive signals that interest rates could begin to fall in 2024. That should all help to make 2024 another good year. However, the wild card for 2024 will be the election, with political rhetoric now in full swing. Of course, if I could
The author is president of Rentech Boiler Systems Inc., based in Abilene, TX. 26 HPAC ENGINEERING JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2024
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predict what was going to happen in this election, I would not be in the boiler business. But experience has shown that there is often a mild slowdown in our industry around elections. Typically, that slowdown is brief, and business picks up again shortly after. So we will just have to wait and see what the 2024 election brings. Either way I feel there are strong market drivers that will continue to push demand for boilers no matter who wins.
The Road Ahead for ABMA
We expect that 2024 is going to be a busy and exciting year. It kicks off with our annual meeting in Austin, TX, in early February. Once again, this event will be a fun time with great opportunities to network and learn about industry trends. And with the increase in our membership, this annual meeting is sure to be one of our largest meetings to date. As mentioned earlier, Boiler 2024 takes place in May. It will be the largest boiler-focused conference and expo in the U.S. this year. Once again, this special event promises to be a great expo and educational opportunity for anyone who owns, operates, or is in the market to purchase, a steam boiler. In addition to the Annual Meeting and Boiler 2024, ABMA staff are also working hard on advancing the boiler industry by: • Making ABMA the home for the entire boiler supply chain; • Investing in workforce development to ensure this industry thrives; • Ensuring that everyone is aware of the integral part that boilers play in our society and the boiler industry’s active role in environmental sustainability.
Decarbonization, Big Data
Technological advances, requirements for improved efficiencies, and lower emissions mandates for the boilers we manufacture continue to drive our industry. Time and again over the years, the boiler industry has risen to the occasion and met these
requirements for improved efficiency and emissions. The path to decarbonization now will be no different. Toward that end, ABMA members are ready to lead the way and to help our customers determine what their path to decarbonization looks like. I feel that that path will vary by region and by individual company. So this will not be a one-size-fits-all process. Various regions around the world will have access to different types of renewables and green fuels. Because of this, the solutions will vary based on what resources are available locally. Some places will have ample access to hydrogen and others will have access to low-cost electricity through wind, solar, or hydroelectric power. Other regions will have geological formations that allow for easy sequestration of captured carbon. These regional variations and the customer’s desires will be what dictates their path to decarbonization. In addition to those efforts, our industry is also seeing the impact of big data and more automation of systems. This automation is making it easier for our customers to operate their steam plants with fewer personnel, allowing those operators to focus more on preventative maintenance to ensure high run-time efficiencies. With the onset of artificial intelligence (A.I.) now, it is yet unclear the exact impact this transformative technology will have on the boiler industry. It will be interesting to see how it eventually evolves to help our industry.
Developing That Next Generation
ABMA is working to provide members with tools to develop relationships with educational institutions and associations to promote the sustainable and diverse career pathways within the boiler industry. The association is also developing resources and case studies to support members engaging with local institutions. From my perspective, this is a
marketing campaign that individual companies have to execute in order for the talent that is out there to learn about all the great reasons there are to come to work for you. At my company, Rentech, we work closely with our local high school and technical colleges. We support the teachers and faculty in these institutions and assist them with materials, supplies, and curriculum. We sit on advisory councils for these institutions and have meaningful discussions with the educators on what we need as the basic skill sets for students entering the workforce. We also promote internships and work-shadowing programs for skilled labor students. For younger students, we also offer factory tours and mentoring lectures. Many of these younger students do not realize that there are local, good-paying career opportunities in manufacturing. So, companies must engage with local schools. Without that involvement in the process, the educators also have no idea what type of training is needed to support their local manufacturers. So, everyone in the industry working together to get the word out about the opportunities in our industry is really the way I feel we will solve the current issues around hiring, training, and retaining workers. This approach has worked well at Rentech and I am confident it will work for others, as well. In closing, I think the future for the boiler industry looks bright. The need for steam is not going away anytime soon. Granted, we may see different fuels being fired in our boilers and we may see new flue gas treatment processes on the back end of the boiler systems. But the need for steam will continue to exist. The boiler industry has been around for a long time and it has seen a lot of changes. But as we have always done in the past, this industry and ABMA will rise to the challenge and innovate and adapt to meet the needs of both our customers and society.
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NEW PRODUCTS Magnitude WMT Water-Cooled Chiller
Daikin Applied introduces Magnitude WMT, a next-generation magnetic-bearing centrifugal chiller. It is the only chiller designed for the ultra-low global warming potential refrigerant R-1233zd(E) that also features oil-free magnetic bearing technology and a two-stage compressor. The magnetic bearing compressor with a variable-frequency drive provides additional energy efficiency gains, and eliminates lubrication, mechanical seals, wear surfaces and gears. With fullload efficiency of 0.50 kilowatts per ton and part-load efficiency of 0.30 kW/ton, the unit is up to 40% more efficient than standard centrifugal chillers. Daikin Applied
Wavecrest Designer Commercial Sensor Faucets
Wavecrest designer commercial sensor faucets from T&S Brass are offered in various refined designs, each with a choice of polished chrome, brushed nickel or fingerprintresistant matte black finishes. Standard or medical heights are available for additional customization. Featuring below-deck electronics, the faucets offer a sleek look with more intuitive sensor activation and auto-flush capabilities. All models include a hidden sensor and a recessed 0.5 gal. per min. nonaerated spray device. T&S Brass and Bronze Works
Technoforce e-MTV Packaged Booster System
The Technoforce e-MTV Packaged Booster System from Bell & Gossett is a prefabricated solution built for constant clean water delivery pressure. A variety of fixed-SKU options all feature e-SV stainlesssteel vertical multistage pumps. Preconfigured for two to three pumps. The 7-in. color touchscreen provides an intuitive user interface for ease of troubleshooting. Capable of flows up to 950 gals./min. Includes 208-230V 460, 575 volt premium efficient motors, and 304 stainless-steel grooved manifolds. Bell & Gossett/Xylem
AquaSnap 30RC Air-Cooled Chiller
Carrier unveils the AquaSnap 30RC air-cooled scroll chiller featuring Greenspeed intelligence and R-32 refrigerant. Its compact tier design, with a physical footprint less than standard chillers, enables it to be deployed where space is tight without compromising performance. The optimizations boost the integrated part load values up to 18 for a wide range of applications from 60 to 150 tons using low global warming potential R-32 refrigerant to further reduce impact on the environment. It features variable-frequency drives for the fan motors along with advanced PIC6 controls to obtain optimal chiller performance. Carrier
Chemical-Resistant Fume Hood Blowers
Hemco offers a complete line of belt and direct-drive exhaust blowers that are chemical resistant and available in standard and explosion proof models. They are designed to operate effectively and efficiently to remove hazardous fumes from a fume hood. Blowers are, epoxycoated steel, belt- or direct-drive blowers with adjustable discharge and weather covers from 250 cfm to 2,000 cfm. PVC belt- or direct-drive blowers range in size from 230 cfm to 1,600 cfm. A wide selection of ventilation accessories are available such as ducting and filters. Hemco Corp. 28 HPAC ENGINEERING JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2024
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Space Nano Monitoring Device
Airthings introduces Space Nano to the Airthings for Business portfolio. It monitors humidity, temperature, pressure and lux (a camera-free light level sensor), both indoor and outdoor. A virtual Mold Risk Indicator offers an expanded opportunity to monitor hard-to-reach and less-accessible spaces within buildings. It comes in a two-pack, with a battery life expectation of up to 20 years. Perfect for unoccupied areas, including storage rooms, ducts, air-handling units, technical rooms, crawl spaces, attics and similar spaces. Airthings
Climate Changer Data Center Solutions
Trane unveils its Climate Changer for data centers to meet the decarbonization and climate control needs of this sector. It helps reduce carbon impact and water consumption, maximize space usage and reliably meet specific cooling needs. For data centers that rely on fan coil walls to manage heat and humidity with tight tolerances, the units provide versatility with multiple direct-drive plenum fans configured into compact stackable floor modules. The compact design measures 5 feet or less with narrow components that move through 8-foot doorways. Lower-power input fan array for improved energy efficiency and reduced carbon emissions. Trane
Nexus Modular Hybrid Cooler
Baltimore Aircoil’s Nexus modular hybrid cooler is an intelligent, plug-and-play cooling system for HVAC and light industrial applications. Intuitive, smart controls minimize operating costs by balancing water and energy savings across three modes of operation. Improves water quality with an optional UV system that reduces bacterial growth. The modular design is ideal for confined layouts, resulting in a 40% smaller footprint and much lower installation costs compared to conventional centrifugal fan fluid coolers. Baltimore Aircoil Co.
TESCOM 26-2000 Series Venting Pressure Regulator
A high-pressure, piston-sensed regulator, the TESCOM 26-2000 Series from Emerson is ideal for hydrogen dispensers, research and development labs, pressure filling, calibration testing, burst testers, component testing and high-pressure hydraulic or pneumatic applications. It comes with segregated captured leak port with inlet pressure ratings of 413-1034 bar/6,000-15,000 psig. Available with soft and metal-to-metal seating. A standard 40-micron internal filter (soft-seated models) increases service life. Available in dome, spring and air-load versions, the series works well with the TESCOM ER5000 electropneumatic controller. Emerson Electric Co.
HVACR Stud Finder
Zircon introduces the Wood Stud SuperScan advanced stud finder with Target Control technology and FILTERz cancellation. By analyzing the complex data streams from multiple sensors and controlling the result using sophisticated intelligence, the stud finder can find wood studs and filter out metallic objects such as plumbing, conduit, straps, brackets, screws, protector plates or ductwork behind the wall. The technology also alerts users to the presence of other low density, nonmetallic targets such as plastic pipe and PEX tubing, as well as live, unshielded AC electricity. DeepScan mode locates the center of wood studs and metal up to 1 1/2 in.-deep behind walls. Zircon Corp. JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2024 HPAC ENGINEERING 29
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MARKETPLACE TANK LINING PROTECTION LIKE NO OTHER
Provides unsurpassed protection from the corrosive effects of water.
Helps prevent the growth of bacteria, mold and mildew on the surface of the tank lining.
Learn more at bradfordwhite.com/innovations Microban® antimicrobial product protection helps prevent the growth of bacteria, mold and mildew that may affect the product. The built-in antimicrobial properties do not protect users or others from disease-causing organisms. Microban® is a registered trademark of Microban Products Company. ©2024, Bradford White Corporation. All rights reserved.
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Discover the LAARS® FT Series Commercial Boiler: • 399 MBH and 301 MBH sizes • Up to 10:1 turndown and 95%+ thermal efficiency • Converts from wall to floor with optional stand • DHW Smart PriorityTM Learn more today:
laars.com/CommercialWallBoiler ©2024 Laars Heating System Co. All rights reserved.
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Configurable. Robust Air Performance. Greenheck’s new AER direct drive configurable condenser fan is engineered for severe duty projects and is ideal for data center/mining, mission critical or outdoor air systems applications. • Vari-Green® EC motors up to 7.5 hp • UL motor and product certifications
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MODEL 331 Fast. Powerful. Non-stop Performance. *Taco vertical in-line pump efficiencies vs. leading competitive pump at 1,696 duty points.
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CLARK’S REMARKS
BY LARRY CLARK, SUSTAINABLE PERFORMANCE SOLUTIONS LLC
Still Striving to Make Solar Panels Work at Night
Researchers are experimenting with a thermoelectric generator that can run both hot and cold, and deliver electricity 24/7.
Larry Clark
A regular contributor to HPAC Engineering and a member of its editorial advisory board since 2012, the author is a principal at Sustainable Performance Solutions LLC, a south Florida-based engineering firm focusing on energy and sustainability. Email him at larry@ sustainflorida.com.
Their vision of solar panels that work at night, as well as during the day, would provide space cooling and electric energy for those buildings. They have demonstrated the capability of using a TEG, with deep space as the cold side, to sufficiently chill water in order to lower daytime interior building temperatures by as much as 5 deg. C (2.8 deg. F). Assawaworrarit and Fan accomplished this by rejecting the heat to space using what they call an emitter. The emitter radiates the ambient heat to space within the 8-13 micrometer wavelength band, most effective for atmospheric transmission, creating the ΔT necessary to produce electricity. ID 97063026 | © Krailert Phonnopparat | Dreamstime.com
L
et us start the new year with a quick journey through history. Alessandro Giuseppe Antonio Anastasio Volta (we’ll just call him ‘Al’) is best known as the inventor of the battery and discoverer of methane. In 1794, Al, after whom the ‘volt’ is actually named, also discovered the thermoelectric phenomenon now known as the Seebeck effect. How is that possible? Well, German physicist Thomas Seebeck ‘rediscovered’ the effect in 1821, nearly three decades later, but still managed to attach his name to it. Specifically, the Seebeck effect is the electromotive force (emf), or voltage, that is directly converted by a difference in temperature in bimetal conductors or semiconductors. The practical application of the Seebeck effect is the thermoelectric generator (TEG), a solid state device that functions like a heat engine, but produces electrical, not mechanical, energy. There are a variety of TEGs that are commercially available and they often find applications in using waste heat to provide power in remote locations. Amazon even offers a “Thermoelectric Oil Lantern; Converts Heat into Electricity to Power Bright LED Lights. For Camping, Power Outages, Reading and Hiking.” A typical TEG will have a max. efficiency of 7.5% at max. ΔT, and will need a heat source (up to approx. 600 deg. F) and a cold side. The TEG’s energy output is directly proportional to ΔT, so a lower temperature hot side requires a proportionally cooler cold side. That’s where some Stanford University researchers, including postdoctoral research fellow Sid Assawaworrarit and Prof. Shanhui Fan, come in. Their idea is to use a building’s ambient temperature as the hot side of a TEG and to use the extreme cold of deep space as the cold side.
Their first proof of concept used a simple emitter made from an aluminum plate painted black and enclosed in an insulated box. When located on a rooftop at night, with an off-the-shelf TEG, it produced a power density of 25 mW/m2, enough to light an LED. The Stanford researchers have since replicated the original demonstration and have used a solar cell as an emitter, generating even more electricity. Granted, the technology has a ways to go before it’s commercially available, but Dr. Assawaworrarit and Prof. Fan do believe that they can realistically reach 1 W/m2. And that’s enough to power LED lighting and even charge cell phones. So, stay tuned!
32 HPAC ENGINEERING JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2024
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