Forecasts Increased Wheat and Oilseeds

By Elmer Heinrichs

According to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) the 2023-2024, total field crop production is projected to decline slightly based on an expectation of a return-to-average yield, as area is expected to remain relatively unchanged.

However total wheat production is forecast at 32.8 Mt, up 4 per cent due to an increase in seeded area. Production is projected at 28.9 Mt, 2 per cent more than the previous year and 10 per cent more than the last five-year average.

The planted area to soybeans is projected to increase by 7 per cent to 2.28 Mha while harvested area rises to 2.27 Mha. Trend yields of 3.0 t/ha are predicted, assuming normal temperatures and moisture conditions. Soybean production is forecast at 6.77 Mt, up from last year. To achieve average yields, normal weather and growing conditions over the spring and summer are assumed.

Currently, abnormally cold spring temperatures and continued dryness across Alberta and Saskatchewan are the most significant climate-related agricultural risks to realizing average yields, according to the national agroclimate risk report.

Carry-out stocks are expected to increase marginally as normal production levels combined with larger carry-in stocks (beginning-year inventories) will lead to a small rise in total supply, while exports are expected to continue to be relatively robust and domestic use is expected to remain at average levels.

In general, prices are projected to decrease but still remain relatively strong as expectations for an increase in global supplies exert downward pressure on prices, while support is expected to come from continued strong world demand.