DILFaktuelt / maj 2021 by Dansk Indkøbs- og Logistik Forum

aktuelt MAJ 2021 / UDGAVE NR. 11

SALES AND OPERATIONS PLANNING ARTIKLER

5 FAKTUELLE

SIDE 8

SIDE 30

Supply Chain Management and Dealing with the Unknown

INTERVIEW – DDMRP ER DEN OPLAGTE PLANLÆGNINGSMETODE med Camilla Thuge Lund fra Syncronic og Peter Christensen fra OJ Electronics

Increasing sales and cost performance through sales and operations planning

SIDE 20

The Role of Machine Learning in Sales and Operations Planning

Interview med Anne Mogensbæk Steen, fra Royal Greenland

SIDE 34 UDGAVE NR.

SIDE 42

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INDHOLD

Supply Chain Management and Dealing with the Unknown by Kelly J. Thomas

20 38

Mangler du også inspiration til din sommerferielæsning?

FAKTUELLE

INTERVIEW Læs, hvordan Anne Mogensbæk Steen fra Royal Greenland A/S arbejder med S&OP.

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SOMMERFERIESJOV Hvad skal du læse, se eller høre over sommeren? Få inspiration fra DILF-medlemmer her.

S&OP – ET BEGREB I FORANDRING af Jan Stentoft, Henrik Knak & Thomas Holm

BLANDEDE ARTIKLER Læs en række udvalgte artikler, som ikke omhandler S&OP

INCREASING SALES AND COST PERFORMANCE THROUGH SALES AND OPERATIONS PLANNING by Jan Stentoft & Ole Stegmann Mikkelsen, University of Southern Denmark

62 DILF-PUBLIKATIONER Læs tidligere artikler udgivet af DILF om S&OP

SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT AND DEALING WITH THE UNKNOWN by Kelly J. Thomas

DILFAKTUELT Indkøb

5 FAKTUELLE Interview med Anne Mogensbæk Steen, Royal Greenland A/S

32 PODCAST: IS S&OP DEAD AND WHAT WOULD REPLACE IT? by Institute of Business Forecasting & Planning 34 DDMRP ER DEN OPLAGTE PLANLÆGNINGSMETODE af Freja Frigast Rasmussen, DILF 38

SOMMERFERIESJOV Få inspiration til din sommerferielæsning

40 VIDEO: SALES AND OPERATIONS PLANNING BASICS WITH STEVEN THACKER by Supply Chain Secrets 42

THE ROLE OF MACHINE LEARNING IN SALES AND OPERATIONS PLANNING by Snurre Jensen

HD I SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT VED SYDDANSK UNIVERSITET af Jan Stentoft & Ole Stegmann Mikkelsen, Syddansk Universitet

...VIL DU VIDE MERE? Læs en række udvalgte artikler omhandlende S&OP

58 BOGANMELDELSE: INDFØRELSE AF S&OP ER EN KONTAKTSPORT af Henrik Knak, Syncronic

Logistik

SCM

Udgivet af: Dansk Indkøbs- og Logistik Forum, Vesterbrogade 149, 1620 Købehavn V, tlf: 3321 1666, fax: 3321 1566, mail@dilf.dk, www.dilf.dk Redaktion: Søren Vammen, Ansv. Redaktør Ditte Navntoft, Redaktør Design og layout: Sarah Louise Schøne, Grafisk Designer Annoncer: For mere info, kontakt Jeanet Mørk på mail: jm@dilf.dk Forside: www.Istock.com Næste nr. udkommer: August 2021 DILFaktuelt udkommer seks gange årligt. Gengivelse af indholdet eller dele heraf er kun tilladt efter forudgående aftale med redaktionen. Indholdet i artiklerne udtrykker ikke nødvendigvis DILFs holdninger. DILF forbeholder sig retten til at afvise materiale, der ikke stemmer overens med foreningens interesser. Der tages forbehold for trykfejl. DILFAKTUELT

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INTRODUKTION

S&OP

– et begreb i forandring af Jan Stentoft, Henrik Knak og Thomas Holm

I denne udgave af DILFaktuelt behandler vi emnet Sales and Operations Planning, der for alvor er et område under udvikling. Vi har spurgt en række eksperter, der alle uddyber deres viden inden for området. Hvorfor er S&OP så vigtigt? Hvad er egentlig kernen i S&OP? Og hvorfor skal vi følge så nøje med i udviklingen? /Redaktionen

S&OP SKABER KONKURRENCEMÆSSIGE FORDELE af Jan Stentoft, Professor, Syddansk Universitet

S&OP er en kritisk tværfunktionel planlægningsproces, som kan forbedre virksomheders balancering af efterspørgsel og udbud af varer. Det er en proces, der hjælper med at udvikle taktiske planer, som kan bidrage til at skabe konkurrencemæssige fordele. Processen søger at konsolidere store dele af virksomhedens planer inden for salg, marketing, produktudvikling, produktion, indkøb og økonomi til en samlet integreret plan. S&OP kan bidrage til at nedbryde den såkaldte silokultur. Udfordringen i mange virksomheder er, at de forskellige planer i virksomhedens funktioner ikke hænger sammen. Man har talt om one

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number, one plan, men den teknologiske udvikling har gjort, at man har bevæget sig væk fra denne one number, one plan. I stedet ser vi mere scenarieplanlægning og what-if-analyser som integrerede dele af S&OP-processer, hvor scenarier opbygges med forskellige spænd omkring målsætninger. En yderligere nytænkning i S&OP er et større fokus på demand planning i stedet for en push-fokuseret forecast approach. Fokus har rettet sig mod sikring af den nødvendige kapacitet for at imødekomme efterspørgslen.

S&OP ER I FORANDRING – VELKOMMEN TIL IBP af Henrik Knak, Partner, Syncronic ApS For de fleste danske virksomheder er S&OP i dag en etableret månedlig planlægningscyklus bestående af 4 trin: 1) Demand Planning, 2) Supply Planning, 3) Balancing og 4) Executive S&OP Meeting. For bare 10 år siden var S&OP kun for de største og fremmeste virksomheder, men i dag bruges det af alle. Mange er på modenhedsniveau 2-3 ud af 5, hvor processen er tværfunktionel drevet af Supply Chain-direktøren med involvering af Salg & Marketing, Produktion samt Planlægning, Lager, Transport og Indkøb. Topledelsen er forhåbentlig også involveret i det afsluttende eS&OP-møde hvor de væsentligste konflikter lukkes, og taktiske valg træffes. Formålet er at balancere ”volume” i værdikæden og træffe beslutninger, som rækker ~3-18 måneder frem. Beslutningerne omfatter kapacitet, lager, ’stress’-dispositioner og produkt-, markedog kundeprioritering mhp. høj OTIF. Ligesom nye løbende forbedringer igangsættes.

Men S&OP er i forandring – velkommen til ”IBP”: De virksomheder, som i en årrække har øvet sig på S&OP, har for længst inddraget finans i både balanceringen og de endelige topledelsesbeslutninger – og er på modenhedsniveau 4. Planlæggerne har ligeledes fået mere avancerede IT-værktøjer, så de kan arbejde med ”value” i flere dimensioner samt lave scenarier/simuleringer. Processen er udvidet til også at omfatte såvel finansielle som strategiske områder: Den årlige budgettering, ekspansion og opkøb, markeds- og kundeprioritering, produktsanering, kompleksitetsoptimering og meget mere. Dette S&OP-niveau kaldes ofte ’Integrated Business Planning’ eller bare IBP. Kun gennem en aktiv topledelsesinddragelse kan man komme til modenhedsniveau 3 og videre til niveau 4. Det kræver nye roller og ansvar, nye KPI’er og holistisk mod – men det er muligt!

Fra topledelsesplaner via IBP/S&OP til eksekvering

Executive led

Functional management led

Financial Planning

Strategic Planning

Finance links strategic and tactical layers

Business Planning Sales & Operations Planning Demand Management

Rough Cut Capacity Planning Master Planning

Manager led

Bills of Material Routings

Detailed Material / Capacity Planning Plant & Supplier Scheduling

Inventory Records Capacity

Execution Delivery Figur 1. Kilde: SYNCRONIC ApS

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KERNEN I S&OP HAR ALDRIG VÆRET MERE RELEVANT af Thomas Holm, Senior Partner, Implement Consulting Group

Kernen i Sales & Operations Planning er den at træffe rettidige beslutninger og sikre, at disse bliver eksekveret effektivt. Behovet for at træffe rettidige tværorganisatoriske beslutninger har aldrig været større. Der sker oftere og oftere ændringer i forbrugeradfærd, som påvirker afsætningen både positivt og negativt. Samtidig er der øget risiko for, at forsyningen af råvarer og komponenter bliver forstyrret pga. globale forsyningskæder – og senest knaphed i global transportkapacitet. Dette giver både store muligheder og risici. Evnen til at reagere rettidigt og effektivt på markedsmuligheder og risici er kritisk for en virksomheds konkurrencekraft. Men det kræver, at virksomheden har styr på kapacitet og forsyning gennem hele kæden og sikrer, at alle led i kæden håndterer markedsmuligheder og risici synkroniseret. Det er kompliceret at overskue konsekvenserne af disse muligheder og risici på tværs af forsyningskæden, og evnen til at kunne simulere for-

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skellige scenarier har aldrig været så kritisk som nu. Scenarier skal ikke kun sammenlignes med hensyn til strategisupport, profit og kapitalbinding etc., men også med hensyn til CO2-udledning. Hurtig og delvis automatiseret scenarieplanlægning er således blevet en forudsætning for en effektiv S&OP-proces. Mange muligheder og risici opstår i dag så hurtigt, at man ikke kan vente på den månedlige S&OP-proces. Derfor implementerer flere og flere virksomheder en ugentlig Sales & Operations execution-proces for at træffe hurtige tværorganisatoriske beslutninger. Kernen i Sales & Operations Planning har således aldrig været mere relevant, men omfang (forsyningskæde, strategisupport, profit, CO2), værktøjer og frekvens har forandret sig./

Online kursus

SUPPLY CHAIN RESILIENCE Forretningsmiljøet er gennem den senere tid blevet sværere at drive forretning i. Gennem COVID-19-pandemien er Supply Chain Resilience blevet aktualiseret, og det er blevet tydeligt, hvor sårbare både private og offentlige globale forsyningskæder kan være. Supply Chain Resilience kan opfattes som evnen til at komme tilbage til udgangspunktet, eller til et bedre niveau, efter en forstyrrelse har fundet sted. På kurset gennemgås Supply Chain Resilience og det relaterede begrebsapparat. Samtidig får du inspiration til, hvordan du kan starte med at implementere Supply Chain Resilience i din virksomhed, og du bliver introduceret til konkrete metoder, værktøjer og fremgangsmåder til Supply Chain Resilience.

Kurset afvikles som webcast over fire fredage fra kl. 13.00 – 14.30: • • • •

21. maj 2021 28. maj 2021 4. juni 2021 11. juni 2021

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Kursusleder: Professor Jan Stentoft, Syddansk Universitet, Kolding

For medlemmer af DILF er prisen 2.500 kr. ekskl. moms. Prisen inkluderer kursusmateriale.

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ARTIKEL

INCREASING SALES AND COST PERFORMANCE THROUGH SALES AND OPERATIONS PLANNING Each year, DILF and researchers from the Department of Entrepreneurship and Relationship Management at SDU in Kolding conduct several mini surveys focusing on different supply chain management issues. Respondents to these mini surveys are voluntary senior managers from various Danish companies represented as the Danish Supply Chain Panel. This article presents the results of a mini survey dealing with Sales & Operations Planning.

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By Jan Stentoft, Professor at Department of Entrepreneurship and Relationship Management, University of Southern Denmark, and Ole Stegmann Mikkelsen, Associate Professor at Department, Entrepreneurship and Relationship Management, University of Southern Denmark

1. Introduction Today’s business environment is changing at an ever-faster pace. Managers constantly encounter challenges that may have vital consequences if not addressed on time. Customers demand new solutions; new competitors arise, and supply chains are being disrupted (e.g., the current COVID-19 crisis or the recent Suez Canal blockade). Furthermore, the rapid digital development has fostered new business models and intensified competition from companies in lowwage countries. The challenges are driven not only by leaders’ need to respond but also by

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opportunities in which business leaders proactively seek to create new solutions and business models. However, such needs and opportunities are not always aligned in companies, as these examples show (Stentoft et al., 2019): • Sales wants to operate with maximum flexibility toward customers, keeping options open as long as possible. Salespeople want to be able to offer customized solutions that are not necessarily within the company’s standards.

• Supply chain managers want to create productivity through stability and process automation and optimization of product and customer portfolios. • Finance wants to create transparency in processes to identify true earnings on products and customers while bringing down the cost of net working capital. • Product Development needs as wide a portfolio of suppliers and materials as possible to maximize the solution space for the design and development of new products.

DANSK RESUMÉ DILF og forskere fra SDU gennemfører hvert år adskillige surveys, besvaret af Det Danske Supply Chain Panel, med fokus på forskellige problemstillinger inden for supply chain management. Denne artikel præsenterer resultaterne af et survey omhandlende stigningen af sales og cost performance i S&OP. Resultaterne indikerer, at der stadig er noget arbejde, som skal udføres, når det gælder den egentlige praksis af S&OP – dette skyldes blandt andet et manglende anerkendt behov for S&OP samt manglende S&OP-færdigheder og -viden.

Implementing Sales & Operations Planning (S& OP) is a way to respond to the above-mentioned challenges and tensions. In short, S&OP is a tactical cross-functional planning process that in literature is proposed to have companyspecific horizons, typically between 3 to 24 months. S&OP processes typically follow a fivestep process in a monthly cycle (Wallace and Stahl, 2008). The process is cross-functional and is suggested to include Sales, Operations, and Finance staff to propel fact-based decisions that balance the tension of matching demand and supply of products and services. S&OP may further be viewed as a mechanism for creating international integration. Thus, S&OP processes are, in turn, relevant for various types of companies spanning from different types of manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers, and service providers.

of knowledge about S&OP in their organizations; that there is no need for an S&OP process and lack of S&OP readiness. These findings are in line with previous research (Stentoft et al., 2020). However, as shown in Figure 1 companies with S&OP in operation find S&OP important in supporting the efforts to maintain and further develop competitive advantages (with an average of 4,14 based on a five-point Likert scale (where 1 = to a very low degree and 5 = to a very high degree)).

This article contains the results of a mini survey focusing on S&OP practices among the members of the Danish Supply Chain Panel. Some of the respondents do not operate with S&OP. They indicate a lack of such practice due to lack

When properly implemented, S&OP can trigger several benefits such as sales growth (improved service levels, reduced out of stocks, improved product launch, fewer backlogs; improved forecast accuracy), cost reductions (material and

/Redaktionen

FIGURE 1. PERCEIVED IMPORTANCE OF S&OP TO GENERATE COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES

4,14 1

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freight cost reductions, more stable production rates, better resource allocation and increased productivity), and improved working capital (reduced stock levels and improved accounts receivable and accounts payable). 2. Drivers and barriers for S&OP With the various tension mentioned in mind, it is interesting to identify who in the organizations is the main driver for operating the S&OP processes. As shown in Figure 2, the main driver is staff from supply chain and operations management with an average of 4,57 on a five-point Likert scale. This result confirms current knowledge which shows that S&OP, in particular, is demanded by supply chain staff and to a lesser degree demanded from the sales side. During our intensive presentations of various topics of S&OP, we have also experienced that too often only a minor share of the audience is from sales while the vast majority come from the supply chain. However, there is still a need to market S&OP for sales to recognize that S&OP is not a supply chain process but a cross-functional company process. The respondents have further been asked to reflect on what they see as the main drivers for the implementation of the S&OP processes. Figure 3 reveals that improving delivery and customer service obtains the highest average of 4,57. This indicates a strong outside-in approach to S&OP with clear priorities on servicing customers properly. This seems paradoxical in the light of

FACT BOX From 2017 to 2019, researchers from SDU completed a research project focusing on behavioural aspects in S&OP processes with a special emphasis on small and medium-sized enterprises. The research project was funded by The Danish Industry Foundation. The project has delivered tools and implementation approaches, videos, practical articles, and cases which are to be found at: www.salesandoperationsplanning.dk

the results in Figure 2, where the supply chain/ operations is indicated as the main driver of S&OP and not so much sales. With customer service as the main driver for implementing S&OP (Figure 3), this in itself should encourage sales to take more lead on the process than what is indicated in Figure 2. One could argue that sales have ‘outsourced’ the management of a highly influential process on customer service – a core objective for sales. Next, the driver reducing silo culture obtains an average of 4,21 which also confirms mainstream knowledge that S&OP is a strong lever to develop supply chain orientation by reducing silo cultures (Stentoft, 2019). However, the results do not tell whether the companies have succeeded in tearing down the

FIGURE 2. ORGANIZATIONAL DRIVERS FOR S&OP 4,57

The staff responsible for supply chain/operations Top management

3,57

The staff responsible for sale

3,29

The staff responsible for finance

2,21 1

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FIGURE 3. DRIVERS FOR S&OP 4,57

A need to improve delivery and customer service A need to reduce a silo culture

4,21

A need to reduce cost consumption

3,79

Top management

3,79 3,64

Requirements from customers

3,57

Employees from supply chain

3,43

A need to improve net working capital 3,14

The owners of the company Requirements from suppliers

2,93 1

FIGURE 4. BARRIERS FOR S&OP Lack of a recognized need (burning platform)

3,62

Lack of time (more focus on operation than development)

3,38

Lack of S&OP skills

3,38

Lack of knowledge about S&OP

3,38

Lack of top management focus

3,31

Too high degree of silo mentality

3,15

Supply chain complexity

3,08

Lack of internal development resources

3,00

Lack of a proper ERP system

3,00

Lack of human resources

2,77

Lack of financial resources

2,46 1

siloes but only that it is a driver or aim. Cost reduction and top management as drivers both receive averages of 3,79 which indicates that a cost focus always is on the top agenda. It is also great news to see top management as a driver for the S&OP process because it supports extant literature, which strongly advises that S&OP

must be anchored in top management (Wagner et al., 2014). Customer requirements are also seen to be a driver for implementing a S&OP process. Implementing a S&OP process is not always a straightforward task. Typically, there are several barriers down the road that executives need DILFAKTUELT

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to be conscious of and need to address. Figure 4 includes the panel members’ perceptions of the barriers in their organizations. As shown, the average scores are in general not high, which may be because these organizations have S&OP in operation and, hence, have overcome the barriers. However, a lack of a recognized need obtains an average of 3,62 indicating that it is an area for special awareness. Practical tools on the recognition phase are available at www.salesandoperationsplanning.dk. The tools stress the importance of securing a recognized need across various stakeholders. Other reported barriers with some effect (revolving around 3,0 on the five-point Likert scale) is the classical dilemma of more focus on operation than development, lack of S&OP skills, lack of S&OP knowledge, and lack of top management focus with averages from 3,38 to 3,31. 3. Performance improvement and S&OP All company activities should (ideally) be oriented towards creating a positive impact for the company. In this survey, the panel members have been asked to evaluate how their S&OP processes affect sales as well as operational and

financial performances. Figure 5 displays the average scores of sales-related performance indicators on a five-point Likert scale (where 1 = to a very low degree and 5 = to a very high degree). As shown, especially improved forecast accuracy (4,15) and improved on-time delivery (4,08) seem to be highly affected by S&OP. Hereafter follows improved service levels and improved customer satisfaction with an average of 3,85 and 3,69 respectively. Figure 6 contains the average scores of perceptions of how S&OP affects cost performance. With improved capacity utilization (4,00), improved productivity (3,75), and a more stable production with an average of 3,75, we find classical operations management objectives to be impacted from S&OP. A more stable production and improved capacity utilization are cornerstones in improved productivity. Relatively high averages are also found for better human resource allocation and less overtime work with averages at 3,67 and 3,58, respectively. The two often go hand in hand. Compared with sales and cost performance, the

FIGURE 5. S&OP IMPACTING SALES PERFORMANCE Improved forecast accuracy

4,15

Improved on-time delivery

4,08

Improved service level to customers

3,85

Improved customer satisfaction

3,69

Reduced stockouts

3,62

Customer retention

3,62

Improved earnings

3,54

Growth in market share

3,46

To acquire new customers

3,38

Improved time-to-market of new products/services

3,08 1

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FIGURE 6. S&OP IMPACTING COST PERFORMANCE An improved capacity utilization

4,00

An improved productivity

3,75

A more stable production (less re-schedules)

3,75

A better human resource allocation

3,67

Less overtime

3,58

Higher stock turnover rate

3,50

A better balance between production and sourcing costs versus transport and safety costs

3,50

Less obsolescence

3,42

Lower manufacturing unit cost

3,33

Lower purchase costs

3,17 1

FIGURE 7. FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE Lower capital tied up in stocks

3,33

Improved customer profitability

3,25

Improved product profitability

3,17

Improved return rate

3,08

Enhanced accounts payable – extended payment deadlines to suppliers

3,00

Improved accounts receivable – shortened period for customer receivables

2,83 1

average scores for how S&OP is affecting the financial performance are significantly lower (all with averages below 3,5). Sales and operational performance improvement might be easier to ascribe to S&OP initiatives than the financial performance where other company initiatives may also affect such measures. The highest average scores with sales performance followed by operational and financial performance are similar to what was found in Stentoft (2020).

However, higher stock turnover rate in cost performance impact (3,50 in Figure 6) seems echoed in lower capital tied up in stocks in financial performance impact (3,33 in Figure 7). The same seems to be the case for lower manufacturing cost in Figure 6 (3,33) and improved product profitability in Figure 7 (3,17). 4. Success criteria and S&OP Implementing S&OP is an initiative that requir-

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FIGURE 8. SUCCESS CRITERIA Importance

Actual pratice Cross-functional participation

4,36

Cross-functional participation

3,91

Alignment of the S&OP process with the corporate strategy

4,27

Alignment of the S&OP process with the corporate strategy

3,55

Responsible S&OP process owner

4,27

Responsible S&OP process owner

4,27

Clear roles and responsibilities among the S&OP participants

4,18

Clear roles and responsibilities among the S&OP participants

4,09

Proper communication

4,18

Proper communication

4,00

Dedication of the necessary organizational resources

4,18

Dedication of the necessary organizational resources

3,55

Structured S&OP meeting agendas

4,09

Structured S&OP meeting agendas

3,91

Accountability among the S&OP process participants

4,09

Accountability among the S&OP process participants

3,73

Performance management of S&OP (KPIs for the S&OP process)

3,82

Performance management of S&OP (KPIs for the S&OP process)

3,36

Education and training of S&OP

3,82

Education and training of S&OP

3,09

Continuous coaching in the S&OP process

3,82

Continuous coaching in the S&OP process

3,09

CEO participation in S&OP decision meetings

3,36

CEO participation in S&OP decision meetings

3,36

Rewards based on results of the S&OP process

2,82

Rewards based on results of the S&OP process

2,73 1

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es not only top management focus but also a dedicated staff. Beyond these points, it is interesting to uncover what the panel members perceive as being the most relevant success factors for their S&OP implementations. Figure 8 contains the averages of a predefined list of success criteria in terms of both their relevance and actual practice. In general, most of them receive high average scores on importance, while lower on actual practice. Not surprisingly, as S&OP is a cross-functional process that should be linked to corporate strategy, cross-functional participation is deemed the most important with an average of 4,36 followed by the alignment of the process with the corporate strategy (average of 4,27). However, we also see a significant gap compared to current practice levels for the two (0,45 and 0,72 respectively). Hence, especially for corporate strategy alignment, a potential for improvement is obvious. If e.g. important processes implemented to improve customer service, as indicated in Figure 3 (drivers of S&OP), are not aligned with corporate strategy, companies may run activities that are not contributing to the objectives of the company, and in the worst case even be counter-productive. Compared to an earlier survey (Stentoft, 2020), both cross-functional participation and alignment with corporate strategies have elevated significantly on perceived importance (from 3,89 to 4,36 and from 3,68 to 4,27 respectively). Also, a responsible S&OP process

owner reaches an average of 4,27 but with actual practice on the same level. Hereafter follows clear roles and responsibilities, proper communication, and the dedication of necessary resources, all with averages at 4,18. For the first two, actual practice follows perceived importance closely. However, for the latter, we again see a significant gap between perceived and actual practice on 0,63 points. The lack of dedication of the necessary organizational resources may have impacted the gap seen in cross-functional participation. It is hard to participate if resources are not allocated to the process. Structured S&OP meetings and accountability among the S&OP participants obtain averages of 4,09 whereas S&OP performance management, education and training in S&OP, and continuous coaching in the S&OP obtain averages of 3,82. Again, we see indications of a lack of organizational focus as education and training and continuous coaching both seem under-prioritized compared to perceived importance with 0,73 points, respectively. The respondents have also been asked to evaluate to what degree they operate with Key Behavioural Indicators (KBIs). KBIs are concerned about the desired behaviour by people operating in internal and external business processes. KBIs focus on good and proper behaviour supported by the values on which the company is built (Stentoft et al., 2019a,b). KBIs should be

FIGURE 9. KEY BEHAVIORAL INDICATORS How important do you think that implementing KBIs are to support the KPIs?

3,27

To what extent are KBI’s part of your current S&OP process? (KBI’s can be meeting attendance; proper communication; compliance with agreements, etc. KBI’s should be seen as a supplement to KPI’s that focus on performance)

3,27

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viewed as a complement concept to the traditional Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). Figure 9 indicates that there is some work in progress regarding KBIs with averages at 3,27. However, the concept is still nascent in nature which can explain the averages revolving around “to some degree”. Recent research has demonstrated that well-defined KBIs – at an individual level, between two persons, and at a team level – help people to better understand how to support and achieve the KPIs (Stentoft et al., 2021, 2019a). 5. Conclusion This article has focused on the practice of S&OP among the respondents in the Danish Supply Chain Panel. S&OP is perceived as a practice that has a strong influence on maintaining and fur-ther develop competitive advantages. It is the supply chain that is the primary driver for implementing S&OP. Major drivers for implementing S&OP are found to be improving delivery and customer service and reducing silo cultures. The reported barriers for implementing S&OP are a lack of a recognized need for S&OP, more focus on operation than development, lack of S&OP skills and S&OP knowledge. The performance effect of implementing S&OP obtains the highest averages for sales performance followed by cost performance. The direct effect of financial performance seems more difficult to evaluate. The predefined success criteria for implementing and operating a S&OP process obtains in general high average scores with 8 out of 13 averages above 4,0. The top-scoring criteria is cross-functional participation. However, the data also shows areas for improvement, as actual practice lacks behind perceived importance, and for some criteria with a significant gap. Data reveal that there, to some degree, is work-in-progress focusing on key behavioral indicators. We hope these data can stimulate discussions in your organization either to improve existing S&OP processes or to initiate an implementation process./

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Literature

Stentoft, J., Rajkumar, C., Freytag, P.V. & Mikkelsen, O.S. (2020), “Sales and operations planning: Empirical insights into perceived relevance and lack of implementation”, Supply Chain Forum: An International Journal, Vol. 21 No. 4, pp. 246-259. Stentoft, J., Freytag, P.V. & Mikkelsen, O.S. (2021), ”The S&OP process and the influence of personality and key behavioral indicators: Insights from a longitudinal case study”, International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, doi. org/10.1108/IJPDLM-02-2020-0056. Stentoft, J., Freytag, P.V. & Eckhardt, S. (2019a), “S&OP unleashed”, Supply Chain Management Review, Vol. 23 No. 4, pp. 2633. Stentoft, J., Freytag, P.V. & Mikkelsen, O.S. (2019b), Improved Competitiveness through Implementation of Sales & Operations Planning, Department of Entrepreneurship and Relationship Management: University of Southern Denmark. Stentoft, J. (2020), “Success criteria for sales and operations planning: Perceived gap between importance and current level”, DILFAKTUELT, No. 6, pp. 20-25. Stentoft, J. (2019), “Key behavioral indicators and supply chain orientation”, Dilf Newsletter article, pp. 1-6. Wagner, S.M., Ullrich, K.K.R. & Transchel, S. (2014), “The game plan for aligning the organization”, Business Horizons, Vol. 57, pp. 189–201. Wallace, T.F. & Stahl, R.A. (2008), Sales and Operation Planning: The How-to Handbook. T.F. Wallace and Company, Ohio.

DET DANSKE SUPPLY CHAIN PANEL – Vil du sidde med? Hvem sidder i panelet? Panelet består i dag af mere end 150 ledende SCM-folk, men vi håber på endnu flere i løbet af 2021. Hvad går det ud på? Som paneldeltager modtager du fire surveys om året, der undersøger nogle af de aktuelle udfordringer, som danske virksomheder sidder med inden for SCM. Når besvarelserne modtages, gennemarbejdes de, og der udgives en artikel på baggrund af resultaterne i DILFaktuelt. Ved besvarelse af spørgeskemaet bidrager du ikke kun med konkrete data, der giver indsigt inden for et givent emne – du deltager også i lodtrækningen om at vinde en valgfri deltagerplads til én af DILFs konferencer eller temadage. I 2021 behandler panelet disse emner: • • • •

Procurement S&OP Supply Chain Management TBA

Pssst... det er gratis at sidde med i panelet!

Vil du være en del af panelet? Kontakt DILF på mail@dilf.dk eller tlf. 3321 1666

Det Danske Supply Chain Panel er et initiativ Dansk Indkøbs- og Logistik Forum og Syddansk Universitet i samarbejde startede i 2012.

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Ja tak, jeg vil gerne deltage i S&OP-konferencen 2021

Online konference

S&OP 2021

Tirsdag d. 25. maj, kl. 09.00-13.40

ANNONCE (S&OP DOBBELT)

Naturkatastrofer og epidemier er ikke blot hændelser, der har trukket overskrifter i den seneste periode, men de har også sat Sales & Operations Planning på mange virksomheders dagsorden – med god grund. S&OP kan anses som en forretningsproces, som hjælper dig med at håndtere usikkerhed og risici, der måtte opstå som konsekvens af dette uforudsigelige og omskiftelige miljø. Processen gør dig tilmed i stand til at udnytte de muligheder, der opstår undervejs. Vi vil gerne give dig inspiration til og indsigt i dit videre arbejde med S&OP. Derfor har vi allieret os med udvalgte eksperter på tværs af brancher og industrier, og de står klar til at dele ud af deres viden og erfaringer. Efter hver præsentation er der afsat tid til Q&A sammen med eksperterne. Gå ikke glip af denne mulighed – deltag i online-konferencen og bliv klogere på begreber og metoder til din Sales & Operations Planning.

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Michael Juhl Petersen EPOS

Janne Sigurdsson Marel

Philip Melchiors VELUX

ANNONCE Thomas Holm Anne Implement Mogensbæk Steen Consulting Group Royal Greenland

James Marland SAP ARIBA

Mød talere fra:

Partner:

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ARTIKEL

Supply Chain Management and Dealing with the Unknown By Kelly J. Thomas

Donald Rumsfeld was a US Defense Secretary in the 1970s and again in the early 2000s. He became known for his entertaining and difficult-to-understand answers at press conferences, so much so that the BBC in London would

DANSK RESUMÉ ”There are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns. That is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don’t know we don’t know”. I denne artikel præsenterer Kelly Thomas os for Donald Rumsfeld’s katalogisering af risici. Han benytter netop det ovennævnte ”kendt-ukendt”-værktøj til at illustrere, hvordan du bedst håndterer det ukendte gennem agilitet og evnen til at tilpasse dig.

/Redaktionen DILFAKTUELT

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regularly broadcast the most noteworthy of his latest obfuscations. But there is one particular press conference phrase for which it seems he will forever be associated. As we know by now, this is the famous “known-knowns, known-unknowns, unknown-unknowns” exchange. In this exchange, Rumsfeld answered a reporter’s question, as follows: “There are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns. That is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don’t know we don’t know.” Huh? Understanding this the first time through is like trying to understand the meaning of a poem the first time through. In other words, it probably had the effect Rumsfeld desired. Afterwards, this became not just an entertaining riff, but it also created a lot of discussion regarding the underlying meaning. It’s also a testament to the power of words and ideas that

Rumsfeld became almost as well-known from this exchange as he had from his fifty-plus years of public service. In fact, the attachment was such that he titled his memoir “Known and Unknown: A Memoir.”

dynamics, all based on the earlier variabilityvolatility discussion. My apologies for perhaps not staying on point, but, like a lot of things related to supply chains, these topics are highly intertwined.

It’s important to point out that Rumsfeld was not the first to use these words or the ideas behind them. He simply repurposed them at the right time in the right context. He also seems to have popularized it as a framework; it has been widely used in the past 15 years across a wide variety of domains.

Note: in the earlier article I discussed agility as the antidote for volatility. In this article I draw a distinction between agility and adaptability. While I draw this distinction, I would like to point out upfront that agility is the enabler of adaptability.

What Rumsfeld was explaining is a framework for cataloging risks. Last month, I published an article titled “Supply Chain Volatility,” in which I discuss volatility in the context of the supply chain stress caused by the coronavirus pandemic. A number of readers astutely pointed out that you cannot know, a priori, everything that the future holds. Given that, how do you deal with unknowns? Here, I will use the Rumsfeld Known-Unknown framework as a tool to address these questions and add to the discussion. I also venture into a fairly wide-ranging discussion on supply chain

Supply Chain Volatility Matrix First, let’s clear up what Rumsfeld meant in the known-unknown dialog, putting it in a supply chain context. To do that, we will adapt the known-unknown construct to a 2x2 framework (this has been widely done over the course of the past 15 years for various risk contexts). In this situation the 2x2 is used to catalog events – either internal or external to companies – that create supply chain volatility. The general matrix is shown below. Along the X axis are the things that we know or do not know; therefore, the left half of the chart represents things we know; the right half of the

UNKNOWN

GENERAL VOLATILITY MATRIX

Known-Unknown Things that we know about, but which have a wide degree of potential impact, making the impact very uncertain.

Unknown-Unknown Things we have not seen before, or that have only happened in history books. The unthinkable.

Known-Known Things that we know about, have seen before, and generally know their impact.

Unknown-Known Things we know, but choose not to know. Ostrich. Avoidance. Kidding ourselves. Wishful thinking.

KNOWN

UNKNOWN

KNOWN

IMPACT

KNOWLEDGE

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chart represents things we do not know. In a supply chain context, this means there are certain events that we have seen before, or even if we have not personally seen them, we know about them. This is a binary axis – we either know about them, or we don’t. The Y axis represents what we know about the impact of events (this is slightly different from what Rumsfeld meant, but is useful for this discussion). As shown in the above, we will use an of X-Y approach (x-axis first, y-axis second) when referring to the four quadrants of the 2x2.

the “you can’t handle the truth” quadrant. I will refrain from commentary as to what might go into this quadrant. We can all think of many things that might go into this category. Pain avoidance, short-term thinking, convenience, inertia, hubris, and just plain stupidity all contribute to things that might go into this quadrant. Now let’s see if we can make this a little clearer by cataloging volatility-causing events into the quadrants (see below). A lot of these event categorizations are of course, in the eye of the beholder. What is known to some may be unknown to others (therein lies opportunity. See the book “The Big Short,” which I recommend people read about every five years).

The Rumsfeld framework originally included just three of the four 2x2 quadrants; there was no unknown-known quadrant (lower right corner). This quadrant was suggested afterward to represent things we know but choose not to know; in other words, these are things we choose to avoid or fool ourselves into disbelieving. This is the Ostrich quadrant. It might also be called

For example, certain events – pandemics, volcanoes, financial derivatives – are in fact known,

UNKNOWN

SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY MATRIX - EXAMPLES

KNOWN

IMPACT

• • • • • •

• • •

Pandemic (e.g. 1918, 2019) Floods Political instability Trade instability Cyber attacks Earthquakes Hurricanes, cyclones, tsunamis Customer-supplier financial instability Volcano eruptions Government regulations Climate change

• • • • • • • • •

Customer drop-in orders Customer change requests Inaccurate forecasts Engineering changes SKU proliferation Worker strikes Weather fluctuations Social media Quality problems

• • • •

• • • • • • • •

•

Disease War Global warming, climate change Poor current decisions Poor past decisions Disruptive new competition (e.g. Amazon in 1990s) Multiple interacting knownknowns, and known-unknowns (as in a plane crash; financial derivatives, 2008-9 financial crisis) Self-deception Bias (e.g. confirmation bias) Statistics Hubris

KNOWN

UNKNOWN KNOWLEDGE

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but only by a small sliver of the population who cannot convince the rest of us to get educated and prepared for the consequences. This means that for a lot of us, these are unknown-unknowns, when in fact when we look back in retrospect, they were known-unknowns. Bill Gate’s prescient warnings about the pandemic are an example of this. In fact, he now regrets he was not more forceful in his arguments. For example, some have suggested that while the pandemic may have been a known entity, its economic impact was a big unknown. This makes it a known-unknown in the 2x2 framework. As I have previously said, this is probably true, but once you have a pandemic, your position on the chess board changes considerably, therefore changing significantly the conditional probability of a whole host of other events. It’s interesting to consider climate change in this 2x2 framework. What makes it interesting is that it could fall into every one of the four 2x2 quadrants, depending on whom you ask. Some people say it’s a known-known, some say it’s a known-unknown, some say it’s an unknown-unknown, and then there is a certain segment that would just rather not talk about it, so it could also be considered an unknown-known. As the arrow in the chart (page 22) indicates, unknowns become knowns as time unfolds. This is the learning process. With each new unknown making itself known, we learn, understand, and develop playbooks. This process is critical to developing resilience. Alas, there are obviously some people and organizations that are better at this process. What do they do better than others? This is explored further below. In the chart (page 22), I have included in the unknown-unknown examples a couple of interesting items: • Poor current decisions • Poor past decisions

• Disruptive new competition • Multiple interacting knowns These are unknown-unknowns because it is almost impossible to say that a series of decisions resulted in one outcome or another. As Daniel Kahneman and others have pointed out, it’s also difficult to control for the factor of luck. Furthermore, in complex systems (described below), it may be impossible to know beforehand the impact of a sequence of events, each of which individually seems benign. What’s Needed in Each of the Quadrants? Agility and adaptability are the key capabilities needed for dealing with different volatilities. Agility is necessary for dealing with known volatilities, and adaptability is necessary for dealing with unknown volatilities. I’ve added a third capability – enlightenment – that’s necessary for dealing with unknown-knowns – those things where we deceive ourselves or where we fit data to our biases (see figure on page 24). What are agility and adaptability? Agility is about responding rapidly and intelligently using existing supply chain structure and policies; adaptability is about rapidly evolving the structure and policies to suit changed business conditions (e.g. selection stress, discussed below). Agility exercises existing muscle; adaptability creates new muscle. The things that make you agile also make you adaptable, so in many ways adaptability is really a subset of agility. Here, we distinguish agility from adaptability for discussion purposes. Hau Lee wrote an excellent article in HBR in 2004 titled “The Triple-A Supply Chain.” His research and experience showed that supply chains that focus largely on efficiency and cost

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UNKNOWN

SUPPLY CHAIN VOLATILITY MATRIX - WHAT’S NEEDED

Adaptability Evolve supply chain structure and policies to changing market conditions. In times of disruption, evolution occurs rapidly.

Agility Respond rapidly and intelligently to changes in demand and supply to realize plans. Continuously update playbooks based on increasing knowledge.

Enlightenment Root out and elimate all forms of self deception. Ensure all points-of-view are heard and discussed.

KNOWN

IMPACT

KNOWN

UNKNOWN KNOWLEDGE

underperform over the long-term. The article identifies three key attributes of long-term successful supply chains – agility, adaptability, and alignment. The discussion here is consistent with the definitions in that article.

• The behavior of the overall system cannot be predicted by looking at any one component. In other words, the behavior of the overall system emerges from the interaction of its components.

But what forms do agility and adaptability take? To answer that, let’s start with a short discussion about supply chains as complex adaptive systems.

• The behavior of the overall system is dependent on its current state and can be highly sensitive to changes in input. For example, a small change in input can result in large change in output. This same change at another time will result in an entirely different output. Systems with such behavior are said to be nonlinear.

Supply Chains as Complex Adaptive Systems It is often said that supply chains are complex. But let’s try to put some formality around what is actually meant by “complex” by putting supply chains in the context of the definition of Complex Systems (capital “C”). A Complex System is a system composed of many parts which interact with each other. There are a couple of key characteristics of complex systems:

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From this definition, it is clear that a supply chain is an example of a Complex System. The following additional material from the University of Waterloo Institute of Complexity and Innovation is pertinent to supply chains: “Complex adaptive systems — predominantly living systems, including human social systems — ex-

hibit all these features; but, in addition, they survive and reproduce within dynamic selection environments. To do so, they have sets of embedded rules that guide their action in response to their external environments. These rules evolve under selection pressure.” In a business context, disruption creates selection pressure. The pandemic environment is a business example of high selection pressure. Those companies that evolve their rules the best will survive and even thrive in the future. What are rules in the context of supply chains? Rules are what I call policies. Supply chain policies are measures and stipulations about how a supply chain is structured and run in order to execute business strategy. Policies are considered at different levels: • Strategic policies – policies typically dealing with deployment of physical assets • Operational policies – policies typically dealing with how physical assets should behave once they are deployed. Policies are driven by business strategy, which is a company’s game plan for winning in the market. Strategic, or structural policies, are typically considered at time of design of the supply chain and then periodically reviewed quarterly or yearly. In recent years, this review process has occurred with increasing frequency. Times of intense selection pressure, or stress, force companies to review their strategic policies. The number, location, capacity, and links of retail locations, warehouses, plants, and suppliers are all part of this area. So are single versus multi-sourcing, outsourcing, and off-shoring. Intertwined with physical considerations are segmentation, postponement, and inventory and asset business strategies.

Operational policies are also considered at time of design and periodically reviewed and adjusted to changing business conditions and business strategies. What are operational policies? Consider the following different business strategies: • Drive market share for product A in the Nordics region in the brick and mortar retail channel • Drive margin for product B in the Nordics region in the brick and mortar retail channel The underlying supply chain policies for products A and B have to be significantly different. For example, for product A, I want to make sure there is always inventory available and I will probably ship single units from anywhere and to anywhere to save a sale. For product B, I may accept some stockouts if they prevent me from having to incur markdowns, and I may ship in bulk on a regular basis to take advantage of economies of scale. Policies reside in software configurations. When software is implemented, policies are configured to reflect the business strategy of a company. For example, a stocking location for a product will have an inventory policy that reflects how often and in what quantity the inventory will be replenished. A fulfillment policy reflects the priority of customers and what to do in times of shortages or excesses. A production policy reflects how often to run a particular product before changing over. A supply policy reflects minimum inventory levels and frequency of replenishment. Many supply chain policies are a reflection of tradeoffs between efficiency and responsiveness. It’s important to ensure that policies across different functional domains are synchronized back to business strategy. For example, a highly responsive fulfillment strategy that is linked to upstream strategies based on bulk production and distribution will result in costly mismatches.

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Businesses may choose to have different business strategies at the intersection of ProductGeography-Channel-Customer. If businesses operate with this level of granularity, it’s critical that policies embedded in software have this same level of granularity. Agility is the ability to react within existing policies; adaptability is the evolution of policies to stay ahead of market conditions. However, agility is the enabler of adaptability. For example, in order for a company to be agile, it may have to periodically break policies in order to do the right thing for a customer. If it has to regularly break policies in order to adequately serve customers, it must evaluate the underlying policies to see if they need to be adapted to a new reality. This is an example of a company’s agility enabling its adaptability (further discussed below). Pandemic Exposes Adaptability Winners and Losers The current pandemic has created significant selection pressure. This is showing itself prominently in the retail space with Walmart, Costco, Target, and Amazon accelerating in the market, and already-weakened others filing for bankruptcy. As has been shown in the retail space for the past decade, high debt loads significantly reduce a company’s adaptability. Inability to invest, or investment in the wrong things, is a business example of selection stress. This has played itself out in e-commerce for more than a decade. Companies that invest heavily in the right things are selected for survival. Companies that don’t – while they may continue to live for some time – will eventually be selected out. This dynamic is particularly strong in technology spaces such as software where high levels of R&D investment are critical. Underinvestment over time leads to what I call the Hemingway factor, which comes from the book “The Sun Also

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Rises.” In the book, one of the characters, Mike Campbell, was at one time a wealthy man. He has the following exchange with another character, Bill Gorton: “How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.” The business landscape is littered with oncewealthy companies that were undone by the Hemingway factor. In many cases, the business environment simply changes faster than the companies themselves. This is a near-identical parallel to what happens in biological systems. Shocks to the system, such as the current pandemic, accelerate this process. Dealing with Unknowns So, how do we deal with unknowns? Do businesses need to employ a person like Herman Kahn to Think the Unthinkable and devise strategies to deal with such unthinkables? This is an attempt to uncover, a priori, all of the unknowns and turn them into knowns, and to then determine their impact and then develop playbooks for dealing with them. This is an impossible task, not just because the unknowns are constantly increasing, but because it’s actually sequences of events and their consequences that have also proven very difficult to catalog. I should point out that companies do have chief strategists, who have the job of looking around corners, figuring out where things are going, and evaluating and devising strategies for new competitive threats. The critical ingredient necessary for dealing with unknowns is not just a plan, but the process of planning. Robust planning is a critical ingredient to agility, and by extension, adaptability. Strategists can create a plan, but it’s more important that they create a robust process of planning, enabled by robust technology.

Supply Chain Management and Dealing with the Unknown

This is one of the reasons that Dwight Eisenhower, he who led the largest amphibious military invasion in history, said “Plans are worthless, but planning is everything.” Eisenhower goes on to add the following: “There is a very great distinction because when you are planning for an emergency you must start with this one thing: the very definition of “emergency” is that it is unexpected, therefore it is not going to happen the way you are planning.” What he was saying is that the result of planning is not just the plan, but more importantly a set of capabilities that provides knowledge, alignment, agility, and resilience. You see, a plan is a snapshot, but planning is a living, breathing process of discovery, learning, collaboration, and decision making. It uncovers risks, opportunities, contingencies, and choices. In other words, Eisenhower was saying “plan to re-plan.” Perfect Plan or Perfect Planning? Over the years, various sources have predicted the death of planning. The reasoning went along these lines: the world is changing at an ever -faster pace making planning less important; what’s more important is the ability to react. There is an element of this that rings true. However, the general statement is incorrect. In fastchanging environments, planning becomes even more important. What’s become critical is linking planning with execution in a very dynamic way. The truth part is that the tremendous focus on the plan itself has become less important. But what exactly is a plan? A plan is a statement of intent and means at a given point in time. It is an organizational contract, or agreement, to achieve something. “We intend to deliver $100M in revenue, $10M in net profit, and 15% return on capital through the following procurement, production, and distribution.” At the next point in time, the intention may still be the

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same, but the detailed way by which it will be achieved has changed. For example, the plan originally called for one shift at the plant, but unforeseen events now call for two shifts. Creating a precise, perfect plan has been a focus of optimization experts for many years. Creating a perfect snapshot is important, but more important is your ability to rapidly and intelligently edit your snapshot as events unfold in real-time. Furthermore, a lot of the emphasis for plan quality is placed on optimization (and/or heuristics) techniques. These techniques are run against models of the real world. These models – fashionably called digital twins today – are only as good as their ability to represent the real world at a given point in time, and their ability to evolve that representation as the underlying real-world changes. Companies like Kinaxis – where I am a board member – have figured this out by applying machine learning to continuously adapt models as the real-world represented by the model changes. They call this process “self-healing,” meaning if the model drifts out of synch with the real-world it represents, algorithms will instruct the model to self-correct. In the past, this required human intervention and was a historical reason why companies lost faith in earlier generation SCM systems. In other words, model drift led to plan quality drift which led to confidence drift which led to organizational drift around the system. AI systems, which are also model-based, are already encountering similar problems. Builders of AI systems can learn a lot from the thirty years of experience of those who built optimization systems. Furthermore, historically, plans were deterministic, meaning they were based on a single possibility, versus a range of possibilities (stochastic). For example, a forecast, even though it is only 70% accurate and subject to wide fluctuations,

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was a single data point. A big reason for this is that information systems have been historically designed to only accept a single data point, and at the end of the day, you have to order a discrete number of something, not a range. While this is true, today’s modern software solutions, such as that provided by Kinaxis, provide for an endless number of scenarios, effectively providing for a stochastic approach to planning. This provides the ability to consider an endless range of demand and supply scenarios, thus supporting not just creation of a robust plan, but enabling a robust process of planning, as advocated by Eisenhower. In light of this, let me clarify the earlier reference to “plan to re-plan.” In today’s world, this doesn’t mean that you are throwing everything up in the air and creating a new plan every time you encounter a problem. What it means is that you are surgically repairing the plan as you react to conditions in the field of competitive battle. Agility Enabling Adaptability Kevin O’Leary (Mr. Wonderful of Shark Tank) asks his portfolio company CEOs “what would happen to Apple’s business if it had to close all its retail locations?” His answer: “absolutely nothing. People would still find a way to get their iPhones.” This is a stress test question meant to get his CEOs to figure out a way for their customers to still get their products, even as all their retail locations are closed. David Simchi-Levy recommends that companies and governments perform regular stress tests on their supply chains, in an approach similar to that put in place by governments to evaluate the risk of large banks. This is basically what O’Leary is asking and seems like a very good idea, particularly since it takes away the need to identify and catalog events. (Yossi Sheffi suggests the same in his book The Resilient Enterprise from 2007). In other words, such a stress test would

look at supply chains and say “what if we took away this source of supply or that source of supply,” without having to figure out what caused the loss of the source of supply a priori. Of course, it would also come in handy to know that an event has the potential to cause such a problem so that when that event surfaces you can get out ahead of the game. To do this, companies can employ the same agility techniques they use in their tactical supply chain planning processes. They can simply add a risk evaluation process with a different cadence. The idea is not to try to imagine all possible risks, but to make the process of planning more robust. Simchi-Levy’s idea can be applied to both strategic demand and supply risk. O’Leary’s question to his CEOs is an example of stress testing for demand risk. Similar questions that might be asked and formulated into scenarios, include: •

What if you were to lose your key customer? What about your top 5?

•

What if your B2B channel completely shut down?

•

What if your retail channel completely shut down?

•

What if one of your key products was tampered with?

•

What if there was product contamination somewhere upstream?

•

What if a plant were to shut down for day, week, or month?

•

What if there were a port strike that lasted six months?

•

What if an earthquake were to shut down a west coast port (or 2) for six months?

And, in a question directly opposite to that asked by Kevin O’Leary, “what if your B2C channel were to shut down?” For a day? For a week? For a month? This is not so far-fetched given concerns regarding cybersecurity. Therefore, the same capabilities that make your S&OP and other planning processes agile today, enabled by the likes of Kinaxis, can be used to consider these larger risks. These processes, if not already part of the organization’s planning center of excellence, can easily be added by extending agility capabilities. As pointed out earlier, agility then becomes the enabler of adaptability. For leading companies (and hopefully governments), the current crisis is acting as a catalyst to make their planning processes more robust. Leaders will rapidly learn and determine which policy changes will be temporary and which will be permanent. But it is not just the actions they take that will be important for the long-term; what will be more important is improving the processes by which they take action. This is called agility and adaptability. It’s not necessary to figure out all the unknowns; it’s important to have a robust, agile, planning process that considers consequences. Creating, updating, and exercising a catalog of potential consequences through scenario planning on a regular cadence will go a long way to this end. When a crisis does arise, you may not have previously thought of or exercised its exact consequences, but exercising the process of planning itself will have prepared you for it./

THIS ARTICLE IS REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM WORLDLOCITY You can read the article on the Worldlocity site here: https://www.worldlocity.com/ post/supply-chain-management-and-dealingwith-the-unknown DILFAKTUELT

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INTERVIEW

Hvad arbejder du med til daglig, og hvad har været din vej ind i dette?

Jeg arbejder med sales & operations planning (S&OP) hos Royal Greenland samt supply planning og demand planning, som føder ind til S&OP-processen. I dag arbejder jeg ca. halvdelen af min tid med udvikling og den anden halvdel med drift inden for S&OP. Vedr. drift-delen driver jeg S&OP-processen for to strategiske arter (torsk og krabber).

FAKTUELLE

Min primære vej ind i dette arbejdsområde var via min uddannelse som MSc i Industrial Management (virksomhedssystemer). Valget af uddannelse var baseret på en interesse for at kombinere de matematiske og forretningsmæssige fag. Efterfølgende tog jeg en HD i Organisation og Ledelse, fordi min interesse for ledelse af projekter og processer løbende voksede.

“

For mig at se er det en udvikling, som løbende finder sted, og som aldrig stopper.

Anne Mogensbæk Steen – Group S&OP Planner, Royal Greenland

I mit første job arbejdede jeg som projektleder og fik nogle gode erfaringer hermed. Efterfølgende arbejdede jeg hos Grundfos, hvor jeg fik meget erfaring med procesledelse. Sidstnævnte er en disciplin, som jeg virkelig finder interessant, og som man både som virksomhed og medarbejder kan få rigtig meget gavn af. Det, der er spændende, er det løbende samarbejde mellem proceskonsulenter og brugergrupper omkring løbende at forbedre og udvikle virksomhedens processer – nogle gange i små steps og andre gange som større projekter. For mig at se er det en udvikling, som løbende finder sted, og som aldrig stopper. Inden for de seneste år har vi i Royal Greenland implementeret det, som vi kalder ”financial business planning”, som bl.a. S&OP-processen føder

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ind i. Jeg synes, det er utroligt spændende at være en del af at sikre, at virksomheden løbende udarbejder én samlet plan for de næste 1,5 år. Dette i stedet for at de forskellige afdelinger i virksomheden arbejder efter hvert sit sæt af planer.

Hvad er den største udfordring i arbejdet med S&OP?

Jeg synes, den største udfordring er at sikre fokus på beslutningerne og ikke bruge tiden på beregninger og tekniske detaljer. Man skal sikre sig tid til at arbejde med processens interessenter, samtidig med at man sikrer sig tid til dialog og beslutninger.

Hvad motiverer dig i dit arbejde?

Det motiverer mig at kunne skabe én fælles plan, som virksomheden arbejder efter. Derved reducerer vi frustrationer over eventuelle divergerende planer, og vi kan bedre fokusere vores fælles arbejde. Det er fedt, når det lykkes. Selve arbejdet med procesledelse motiverer mig også rigtig meget. Det er ønsket om at lykkes med at forbedre vores processer, så det er nemmere for brugeren i det daglige, og så vi bedre opnår vores mål – begge dele samtidig.

Hvad har været din største faglige ’aha-oplevelse’ i dit arbejde?

Jo længere tid jeg har arbejdet med S&OP og procesledelse, synes jeg, at det bliver mere og mere tydeligt, at fokus på mennesker og relationer herimellem er essentielt. Hvis ikke der er de rigtige relationer mellem mennesker, og hvis ikke den enkelte kan se sig selv i arbejdet eller finde motivation herfor, så er det svært at lykkes med S&OP.

Hvad, tror du, bliver det vigtigste på agendaen inden for S&OP i fremtiden?

At gå mere over til det såkaldte Integrated Business Planning, hvor man skaber én fælles planlægningsproces for virksomheden, fælles for finans, produktion, indkøb, salg, logistik osv. En rejse vi er i gang med i Royal Greenland, hvor vi har droppet den traditionelle bagudskuende budgetproces og i stedet udarbejder et finansielt forecast baseret på S&OP-processen. Vi sætter targets for fremtiden, og på løbende business review-møder vurderer virksomhedens direktion, om der er overensstemmelse mellem targets og det finansielle forecast, og hvis ikke, kan der iværksættes korrigerende aktiviteter. Jeg tænker, der er flere og flere virksomheder, som går denne vej.

“

Ud over at have én fælles plan for virksomheden via Integrated Business Planning så tror jeg også, at det bliver endnu mere vigtigt at have styr på de IT-værktøjer, som anvendes i S&OPprocessen. Hvis de ikke fungerer hurtigt, effektivt og dynamisk, så tænker jeg, at det vil blive vanskeligt at reagere på nye og uforudsete ændringer i ens omgivelser. Kravet til IT-systemerne gælder både selve planlægningen samt monitoreringen af eksekveringen heraf. Derudover tror jeg, at der om muligt kommer endnu mere fokus på procesledelse som disciplin og fokus på mennesker og relationer i processerne. Det er essentielt./

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PODCAST

IS S&OP DEAD AND WHAT WOULD REPLACE IT? by Institute of Business Forecasting & Planning

Nye teknologier inden for S&OP ændrer måden, hvorpå virksomheder driver forretning – og det giver mulighed for at konkurrere med andre virksomheder. Da disse løsninger fortsætter med at udvikle sig, finder virksomheder nye måder at øge effektiviteten og reducere omkostningerne. Men S&OP har ikke ændret sig meget over de sidste 30 år – det tilføjer ingen værdi for de fleste virksomheder og lever derfor ikke op til forventningerne. I denne podcast diskuterer Eric Wilson fra Institute of Business Forecasting & Planning, om den, nu over 30 år gamle proces, overhovedet er egnet til formålet, eller om den skal udryddes, tilpasses eller bevares. Han præsenterer blandt andet 5 grundlæggende principper, der gør det muligt for S&OP at blive en struktureret forretningsomfattende proces.

31:10 min

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ANNONCE

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Online kursus

Demand Driven MRP

TILMELD DIG HER

ANNONCE DDMRP

Demand Driven Material Requirements Planning (DDMRP) er en ny og meget anderledes måde at planlægge sin produktion på. Frem for at tage udgangspunkt i forecasts tager den udgangspunkt i aktuelle ordrer og behov, når der skal beregnes mængder – eksempelvis ved genopfyldning af lagre. Kursusudbytte: • Introduktion til Demand Driven MRP (DDMRP) og det relaterede begrebsapparat • Diskussion af fordele og forbedringspotentialer ved DDMRP, samt hvordan det integrerer til taktisk planlægning og S&OP • Gennemgang af konkrete metoder, værktøjer og fremgangsmåder • Inspiration til, hvordan man kommer i gang med DDMRP • Konkret case-arbejde med egen virksomhed 9. juni 2021, kl. 9.00 – 13.00 – online 16. juni 2021, kl. 9.00 – 13.00 – online De to sessioner gennemføres med 1 uges mellemrum, og der vil være forberedelse samt evt. hjemmearbejde imellem del 1 og del 2.

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AF FREJA RASMUSSEN, DILF

DDMRP er den oplagte planlægningsmetode med Camilla Thuge Lund, Syncronic, & Peter Christensen, OJ Electronics

Det er ingen hemmelighed, at forecasting er en svær og upræcis disciplin – og som følge af coronakrisen er alle forecasts i de fleste produktions- og logistikvirksomheder også fejet af bordet. Hvis man baserer sine kortsigtede signaler om lageropfyldning på upræcise forecasts, bliver det svært at ramme optimale lagerniveauer. Der vil komme mange hastesager, høje omkostninger og for lave serviceniveauer. Man kan undgå usikkerhederne og alternativt bruge Demand Driven Material Requirements Planning (DDMRP), som er en ny og meget anderledes måde at planlægge sin produktion på – det er en fantastisk metode til at øge serviceniveauer, reducere leveringstid og skære i lageromkostninger.

I marts 2021 afholdte DILF kurset Demand Driven MRP, hvor kursuslederne Kristoffer Steen og Camilla Thuge Lund, begge fra Syncronic, stod klar til at introducere til Demand Driven MRP. Efter kurset tog vi en snak med kursusleder Camilla Thuge Lund og kursusdeltager Peter Christensen, OJ Electronics, for at høre, hvad de syntes om kurset, og hvilke tanker de havde om DDMRP. Camilla har +20 års erfaring inden for Supply Chain management, og inden for CPG-industrien og konsulentbranchen har Camilla varetaget mange forskellige roller. Hendes primære fokus er S&OP/IBP, planlægning og DDMRP. Grundet COVID-19 blev DDMRP-kurset afholdt online, og selvom Camilla fortrækker on site-kur-

ser, så syntes hun, at der var en god interaktion, hvor mange spændende problemstillinger blev diskuteret. Det blev nemlig til to begivenhedsrige dage, hvor kursusdeltagerne blev taget gennem diskussioner af fordele og forbedringspotentialer ved DDMRP, og hvordan det integrerer til taktisk planlægning og S&OP. På kurset blev der gennemgået konkrete metoder, værktøjer og fremgangsmåder, og deltagerne fik en masse inspiration til, hvordan man kommer i gang med DDMRP. Kurset blev gennemført som en blanding af instruktørgennemgange, øvelser, breakouts samt plenumopsamlinger og ikke mindst case-arbejde, som gav deltagerne mulighed for at overføre direkte til egen virksomhed – hvor Peter syntes, at deltagelsen i kurset gav ”passende indsigt i

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koncept, metoder, detaljer og fordele frem for en traditionel MRP samt forslag til en pragmatisk implementering”. Hvorfor DDMRP? Frem for at tage udgangspunkt i forecasts tager DDMRP udgangspunkt i aktuelle ordrer og behov, når der skal beregnes mængder for eksempelvis genopfyldning af lagre. Der er meget ved DDMRP, som Camilla finder interessant. Først og fremmest giver det meget hurtigt kvantitative resultater på lagerbinding og servicegrad, og samtidig fjerner det støj fra forecast i den korte horisont. Camilla synes også, at DDMRP kombinerer flere gode optimeringsprincipper i ét, hvor planlægningsopgaven bliver simplere for aktørerne i processen – ikke mindst med transparente prioriteringsnøgler baseret på reelle behov samt en bedre alignment mellem det operationelle og taktiske niveau. Da vi spurgte Peter, hvad han finder interessant ved DDMRP, var det netop den helt konkrete ordreportefølje, som indgår med overvejende

Fremtiden for DDMRP er uvis og spændende...

“

vægt i planlægning, således at støj fra forecast reduceres eller fjernes. Peter kunne hertil fortælle, at de i OJ Electronics på nuværende tidspunkt ikke har implementeret DDMRP, men at de bruger forskellige planlægningskoncepter, der alle hænger sammen med MRP som basiskoncept. Hovedargumentet for at implementere DDMRP ville ifølge Peter være ”hele tiden at have det rigtige på lager” – som Peter påpegede, vil dette nemlig blandt andet medføre mindre lagerbinding, højere leveringsoverholdelse og færre brandslukningshandlinger. Fremtiden for DDMRP Der vil stadig være brug for forecasts til at planlægge den overordnede kapacitet og sammenholde økonomiske og operationelle planer. Og samtidig er det i virksomhedens taktiske planlægning og S&OP-proces, at DDMRP’s styringsparametre fastlægges. Herved sikres, at de beslutninger, der træffes i S&OP og taktisk planlægning, indarbejdes i den kortsigtede planlægning. Planning er ikke uden udfordringer, hvortil Camilla tilføjede, at de færreste har gode planning boards, hvorfor opgaven hurtigt bliver ret kompleks. Her kan DDMRP være med til at introducere simple boards, der gør opgaven nemmere. Samtidig ser Camilla, at der er mange stakeholders, som typisk ikke er alignet omkring deres koncept, men som hun her påpegede, er det netop det, som DDMRP kan være med til at facilitere. Fremtiden for DDMRP er uvis og spændende, hvorfor vi var nysgerrige efter at høre, hvad en ekspert på området, som Camilla, havde af tanker om dette. Camilla er optimistisk omkring fremtiden inden for DDMRP og pointerede, ”med de åbenlyse fordele tror jeg kun, det er et spørgsmål om tid, før mange flere vil indføre det – jeg tror, det vil erstatte traditionel MRP inden for de næste 10 år.” Hertil kunne Peter fortælle, at han havde været meget tilfreds med kurset, og at OJ Electronics

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har besluttet, at de vil afprøve DDMRP-konceptet i de kommende måneder og konkludere, om der skal ske en implementering.

“

De virksomheder, som bruger DDMRP, har oplevet store forbedringer inden for kundeservice, lagerniveauer og generel forkortelse af gennemløbstider.

Kan jeg deltage i kurset? Kurset henvender sig både til personer, der betragtes som ”nybegyndere” inden for Demand Driven MRP og til personer, der allerede har lidt/ medium kendskab. Camilla påpeger, at alle produktionsvirksomheder, der er lagerførende enten på færdigvareeller råvareniveau kan have gavn af DDMRP samt medarbejdere eller ledere, som arbejder inden for planlægning og S&OP.

Tallene taler for sig selv De virksomheder, som bruger DDMRP, har oplevet store forbedringer inden for kundeservice, lagerniveauer og generel forkortelse af gennemløbstider – faktisk viser erfaringer, at DDMRP blandt andet kan øge serviceniveauet med op til 20 pct., reducere lagerbeholdningen med 40 pct. og reducere leveringstiden med op til 50 pct. Tallene taler for sig selv, så hvis du vil tale for forbedringer i netop din virksomhed, så kan du heldigvis stadig nå at deltage i vores Demand Driven MRP-kursus, når vi gentager succesen:

d. 9. juni og 16. junI – kl. 9.00-13.00

Vi glæder os til at se dig! /

Only

1/2

of executives regularly refresh risk mitigation plans to address potential disruptions

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INSPIRATION

Sommerferiesjov Sommeren er snart over os, og trods regn og vind viser solen sit varme ansigt fra tid til anden. Sommeren står på afslapning – om det er en sommerhustur, en badeferie, en tur til stranden eller blot et koldt glas vin i solen på altanen. Uanset hvor turen går hen, hører en god bog, en spændende podcast eller en opsigtsvækkende video altid sommeren til. Denne gang i DILFaktuelt har vi fået Henning de Haas og Søren Vammen til at dele, hvad de ser frem til at læse, høre eller se hen over sommeren. /Redaktionen

BØGER JEG GERNE VIL LÆSE I SOMMERFERIEN Jeg ser frem til at læse to bøger. Den første er en ny bog af James Høpner ”Den Uperfekte Leder – Meningsskabelse og benspænd i en verden på farten”. Høpner er bl.a. kendt for, sammen med Sverri Hammer, at have åbnet Karl E. Weick´s meningsskabelsesunivers. I introduktionen til bogen hedder det, at Høpner tager udgangspunkt i, at perfekte ledere som helteskikkelser sjældent hører til i virkeligheden, hvor det uperfekte mere er reglen. Bogen beskriver, hvordan ledere kan skabe mening i det uperfekte, det menneskelige og det sårbare. Den anden bog er af Hutchins & Storm ”Regenerative Leadership”. I bogen får vi vejledning til, hvad der skal til for at designe og lede et liv, som er bæredygtigt – ikke alene i et økologisk perspektiv men også i et menneskeligt/livsperspektiv. Bogen er designet til at provokere til tanke, handling og interaktion, og der er igennem hele bogen spørgsmål til refleksion og cases til illustration af pointerne. En rigtig god bog til at give et større perspektiv på bæredygtighed, som jeg glæder mig til at genlæse. - Henning de Haas, Assistant Professor, Aarhus University

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LYT TIL PODCAST OM LEDELSE Jeg havde et nytårsforsæt om at få hørt flere podcasts, men jeg må tilstå, at min eksekvering af det fortsæt haltede en del i et ualmindeligt travlt coronaramt første halvår. Derfor skal sommerferien bl.a. bruges på at få indhentet det forsømte, især med hensyn til Mediano’s mange gode podcasts. Mediano er en usædvanlig stærk platform, som har sit udspring i dybdegående analyser af fodbold – nej, spring ikke fra her – det er meget andet! Jeg er kun perifært interesseret i fodbold, så det er ikke deres fodbold-podcasts, som jeg lytter til – derimod er jeg svært begejstret for deres podcast om ledelse, som ofte befinder sig i grænsefeltet mellem sport og erhvervsliv, og fokuserer på hvad kan vi lære af hinanden. Emnerne er eksempelvis vinderkultur, sportens største ledere og motivation, som er centrale elementer i det at bedrive ledelse i en præstationskultur. Ledelse i sportens verden er langt mere nærværende og intens end i private virksomheder eller offentlige organisationer for den sags skyld. Det udspringer selvfølgelig af, at konkurrenceintensiteten i sportens verden er af en helt anden beskaffenhed, hvor der konstant skal leveres resultater – ofte tre gange om ugen, og ikke bare en gang i kvartalet. Mediano har en lille aflægger, der primært handler om ledelse, som jeg dog kun har fået hørt et par podcasts af, men de var begge fremragende. Så ferien skal gå med at få tømt alle hylder i deres ledelsessektion, men jeg napper nok også et par podcasts inden for fodbold og håndbold. Er man ikke til podcasts, vil jeg stærkt anbefale den yderst velskrevne bog ”Sportens største ledere” af Mikael Trolle og Peter Brüchmann – når du har læst den, er jeg sikker på, at du får lyst til podcastserien om ledelse. - Søren Vammen, CEO, DILF & Kairos

Lyt til podcasten her

Mangler du også inspiration til din sommerferielæsning?

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VIDEO

SALES AND OPERATIONS PLANNING BASICS WITH STEVEN THACKER by Supply Chain Secrets

Mange virksomheder har en S&OP-proces, men kun hos få er processen god og funktionel. I denne video kortlægger Steven Thacker, hvad S&OP i virkeligheden er, og hvorfor det netop er en nødvendighed i mange virksomheder.

Klik for at se video

8:52 min

Kilde: Supply Chain Secrets

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MAKING STRATEGY HAPPEN

Læs mere om forløbet og tilmeld dig her

Making Strategy Happen er en kombination af et strategi- og lederudviklingsforløb, som tager afsæt i egen virksomhed og giver dig processer og værktøjer til at repositionere indkøb som en reel værdiskabende partner i virksomheden. Forløbets 5 moduler har alle fokus på at udvikle og implementere en mere ambitiøs procurement value proposition.

DAG 1 •

• • •

Procurement value proposition Værdibegrebet Hvordan måles værdi i indkøb? Self assessment i egen kontekst – vertikalt og horisontalt.

DAG 2 •

•

Analyse af egen virksomhedskontekst og eksisterende procurement value proposition Udvikling af ny value proposition.

DAG 3 •

•

Fra value proposition til strategi og initiativer Udarbejdelse af indkøbsstrategi, som er relevant for forretningen Initiativer.

DAG 4 •

•

DAG 5

Salg af indkøb og value proposition til forretningen Solution selling som metode til stakeholder engagement Matching af value proposition og forretningens behov.

• • • • •

Mobilisering Forandringsledelse Mig selv som leder Strategieksekvering Målstyring på eksekvering og resultater.

INSTRUKTØR Søren Vammen, adm. direktør i DILF og Kairos Commodities HOLDSTART 8. september 2021, Comwell Roskilde PRIS For medlemmer: 25.000 kr. ekskl. moms

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ARTIKEL

THE ROLE OF MACHINE LEARNING IN SALES AND OPERATIONS PLANNING Are we there yet? By Snurre Jensen

The short answer is: “Not quite”. And while we see examples of very promising modern machine learning experiments that are bound to prove valuable in the future, several traditional approaches are still proving very hard to beat. Traditionally, demand forecasting in the context of sales and operations planning has been supported by various time series methods such as Exponential Smoothing Models (ESMs) and ARIMA models. Given the importance of running an efficient supply chain, a lot of focus has been given to how the analytical aspects of demand forecasting in an sales and operations planning (S&OP) context can be enhanced. AI and S&OP – a match made in heaven? Whenever a new technology has emerged (especially one with such fancy lingo as “convolutional neural networks”, “support vector machines”, “gradient boosting” etc.), organisations have naturally been interested in exploring if and how

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it could help them enhance the analytical aspects of demand forecasting in S&OP. The technology currently getting the most attention is arguably artificial intelligence, and in industries where the supply chain is such an important driver of both cost and value, a lot of attention has been given to how artificial intelligence can reduce cost and increase value throughout the supply chain. (As a historical side note, it’s somewhat puzzling why AI is considered “new” when the origin coincides with the advent of ESMs in the late 1950s.) A key process in optimising the supply chain is sales and operations planning, and perhaps the most critical piece of information in the process is an estimate of future demand, which also explains the continuous search for demand forecasting excellence. So here we are – a new technology based on data showing tremendous potential and a key

DANSK RESUMÉ Hvilken rolle spiller machine learning i Sales & Operations Planning? I denne artikel stiller Implement Consulting Group spørgsmålstegn ved, hvorvidt machine learning er den nyeste og eneste vej frem for S&OP-funktionen i fremtiden. Det korte svar er dog ”ikke helt endnu”. Mens vi ser eksempler på meget lovende moderne machine learning-eksperimenter, der sandsynligvis vil være værdifulde i fremtiden, viser flere traditionelle tilgange sig stadig at være meget svære at slå. /Redaktionen

business process relying heavily on data. Two key ingredients of a match made in heaven, right? Well, not quite. Below, we will look at why this is not the case just yet, but also what companies can already do today in order to prepare for when the match becomes a heavenly made one. Hopefully, this will enable readers to separate fact from fluff. Machine learning – identifying the rules that drive results First, let’s look at why artificial intelligence is getting so much attention. Here it’s important to realise that what most people are referring to when they talk about artificial intelligence is really the subset of artificial intelligence called machine learning. But what is it then that makes machine learning such a hot potato? Machine learning allows us to use data and statistical methods to solve problems using computers in a manner different to how we usually use computers and data to solve problems.

Everyone working with data has done some programming. Creating a new column in Excel which is the sum of two other columns is also programming. In traditional programming, the way you get results is to apply rules – documented or experience-based – to data. In machine learning, the chain is a bit different in the sense that we use data and knowledge about past results to train the computer to identify the behaviour generating results. Put differently, we tell the machine how to learn from data, and it will then identify the rules driving results on its own. TRADITIONAL PROGRAMMING DATA

RULES

RESULTS

MACHINE LEARNING DATA

RESULTS

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The reason why this is so powerful is that it enables us to deal with problems that were hard – or even impossible – for computers to solve before. As an example, look at the picture of the number 4. The picture consists of 28x28 = 768 pixels. To represent the picture as something a computer can understand, we convert each pixel to a number indicating the colour intensity. How would you solve the problem of using a computer to recognise that digit?

What about machine learning in sales and operations planning then? It’s no wonder that people working with demand forecasting are looking to machine learning: “How can we use machine learning to identify and exploit patterns and separate signal from noise in our data?” However, there are some important characteristics of machine learning that one should be aware of and how they compare with how we work with data and S&OP.

In a traditional paradigm, one would have to define if-then rules covering all possible combinations of pixels and colour intensity. That’s a lot of if-then statements. Additionally, a system that is only able to recognise the number 4 has little use. Wouldn’t you also want to be able to recognise the remaining 9 digits? The point is that the number of if-then rules would explode, making it impossible to solve this problem in the old paradigm.

These characteristics matter individually, but some of them also exacerbate each other. However, before shedding some light on some technical considerations, it’s important to remember that the key question is not technical. The key question is how much we gain in terms of forecast accuracy from introducing new technology. Especially new technology that might add layers of complexity on top of what we are doing today.

In machine learning, what you would do instead is to collect data with pictures of digits and information on which number is in the picture. You then input this data into an algorithm that will then learn which characteristics of a picture correspond to the number 0, to the number 1 and so on.

To ease the comparison, the following assumes that we are working with time series data, i.e. data measured equidistantly across time with the typical frequency in S&OP being monthly. It also assumes the somewhat artificial (pun intended) distinction between traditional time series methods and modern machine learning methods. One could argue that since traditional time series methods also try to identify patterns in order to predict the unknown, they can in fact be considered machine learning. The following, however, assumes that traditional time series methods and machine learning are different beasts.

As an example, look at the picture of the number 4 below.

The first characteristic of machine learning models relevant here is that they are famed for being very data hungry. It obviously depends on the data and problem at hand, but suffice to say that you don’t get very far using for instance a neural network on the 36 months of data you often have to contend with when working with data for demand forecasting. This is not

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Spikes/Outliers Seasonal pattern

Trend Level shift Missing values

a function of the data being time series data but the number of data points. I’ve come across examples of neural networks being used for forecasting in high-frequency domains such as energy consumption, where you have data at an hourly frequency or higher. In this scenario, the number of data points can quickly run into the hundreds of thousands. Remaining in the realm of a single time series, what is also characteristic about some machine learning models is that they do not have a concept of time. Traditional time series forecasting methods, on the other hand, are very much “time aware”. They are essentially creating forecasts that are just weighted averages of the past, where recent periods are given a larger weight than more distant periods, also considering factors such as trend and seasonality. If you want to use machine learning models, you will need to make them time aware by engineering your data in a way so that they explicitly contain seasonal factors and trend and making sure that more recent periods are more important. Some machine learning models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models are of course able to accommodate this, but it’s not standard for all machine learning methods. Additionally, you will need to figure out how to deal

with both missing values and outliers. So therein lies the rub – a lot of stuff happening at the level of the individual time series but not a lot of data to be able to separate the signal from the noise. Complex is not necessarily better than simple in large-scale forecasting So far, we’ve only considered a single time series. However, when working with demand forecasting, we often work with data at the item/location level, where several thousand different time series are quite common. This means that our entire set of data potentially can be quite huge. In other words, we are entering the domain of “large-scale forecasting”. The big question then is: Couldn’t we just use machine learning on all that data? In theory, the answer is yes. For practical purposes, it’s not as straightforward as that. The output of our efforts is fed downstream through the planning process, where planning is done for each item/ location combination. This requires that forecasts are generated at this level. Obviously, this can be achieved by using machine learning models, but it might require some tweaking, depending on the actual model used. Also, since time series in the current context tend to be short, it’s often a requirement that our

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modelling setup is updated, once new data becomes available – for instance monthly. This is somewhat different from how many traditional machine learning systems get updated, which is when your model monitoring shows signs of degrading performance. The above needs to be seen in combination with other requirements that we have for the output for planning purposes. Sales and operations planning is essentially a negotiation process, and to facilitate negotiations, we often want information on what drives the forecast – what are the effects of trend, seasonality, promotions etc. In other words, how do we enable the generation of interpretable output which accommodates different effects of demand drivers for each item/location combination? It’s not enough to state for example that our sales generally have an upward trend. We need to be able to have different trend information for each item/location combination. Additionally, since part of the subsequent planning most likely involves inventory planning, we need some measurements of forecast uncertainty as input to inventory planning. The traditional time series methods provide confidence intervals for the forecasts we can use. How can we get confidence intervals for our forecasts – for each item/location – if we use machine learning models? The above points to some technical questions which the use of machine learning in the context of S&OP must be able to answer. However, even in those instances where these technical questions have been answered, evidence has indicated that more complex machine learning models in fact do not produce more accurate forecasts. Some papers show the opposite for smaller problems involving one or just a few time series, but the fact of the matter is that in the domain of large-scale forecasting, more complex models do not yet consistently outperform simpler models in terms of forecast accuracy.

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“Simpler” and “yet” are the key The keywords in that last sentence are “simpler” and “yet”. In this context, “simpler” refers to time series models ranging from a random walk to various ESMs and ARIMA models. If you haven’t previously considered time series methods to support your demand planning activity, the good news is that there are a lot of options to choose from, if you want to pursue this area. Most planning software vendors have some capabilities in this area, but more specialised vendors such as Autobox, Forecast Pro and SAS also have offerings in this space. If there’s a preference for open source technology, which is the de facto technology standard in machine learning, Rob Hyndman’s Forecast package in R could be an option to pursue. Another open source option could be the Facebook Prophet package (running both in R and Python), which offers a novel approach to time series forecasting. Aspiring as well as experienced data scientists have competencies in either R or Python, making open source tools a natural starting point. A somewhat advanced approach to complement traditional time series methods is to work with hierarchical forecasting – across time, geography, product categories etc. The obvious benefit is having forecasts that “add up” across the different levels in the hierarchy. The perhaps not so obvious benefit is that you can exploit the fact that the signal-tonoise ratio often is higher at more aggregated levels of the hierarchy and pushes the identified patterns in the forecasts at the aggregated levels down to forecasts at the disaggregated levels that will feed into downstream planning activities. The word “yet” is important because while machine learning might not be a viable option now, a lot of research, development and experimentation are being done in this area. Given how machine learning has been successful in other business and data domains, the bet is that it will

happen in S&OP at some point. Amazon, for instance, already has a commercial offering called DeepAR. However, some evidence suggests that performance is still underwhelming compared to simpler methods. See for instance this comparison of DeepAR and Facebook Prophet. There is light at the end of the tunnel – and you can already start to prepare The most promising results to date have been the results of the M4 competition by e.g. a team from Uber that developed and implemented an approach involving a combination of machine learning and traditional time series methods. The cost, though, was compute time measured in days rather than hours. So, while we’re not quite there yet in terms of machine learning models consistently performing well in large-scale forecasting scenarios, there is light at the end of the tunnel. Already

now, you can start preparing for what the future holds. The obvious starting point is deciding what forecast accuracy improvements are worth in your organisation. Armed with that information, you can start exploring the options which are already available today. Given the low barrier to entry provided by access to free open source tools and data science competencies familiar with these tools, this makes a good starting point./

THIS ARTICLE IS REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM IMPLEMENT CONSULTING GROUP You can read the article on the Implement Consulting Group site here: https://implementconsultinggroup.com/the-roleof-machine-learning-in-sales-and-operationsplanning/

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FORHANDLINGSKURSER UDDANNELSE & CERTIFICERING • • • •

Hvordan fastlægger du din forhandlingsstrategi? Hvilke praktiske taktikker og teknikker skal du bruge i næste forhandlingssituation? Hvordan finder du den rigtige balance mellem resultat og den ønskede relation til din modpart? Hvad er dine egne styrker og svagheder?

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ANNONCE (FORHANLDING DOBBELT?)

UDDANNELSESDAGE - COMWELL MIDDELFART Modul 1 - Forhandlingsteknik / 19. - 20. maj 2021 Modul 2 - Personligheden i forhandling / 25. - 26. august 2021 Modul 3 - Professionel forhandlingsadfærd / 30. sept. - 1. oktober 2021 UDDANNELSESDAGE - COMWELL ROSKILDE Modul 1 - Forhandlingsteknik / 2. - 3. juni 2021 Modul 2 - Personligheden i forhandling / 1. - 2. september 2021 Modul 3 - Professionel forhandlingsadfærd / 6. - 7. oktober 2021 Certificering - 72 timers skriftlig eksamen

Pris pr. modul DILF-medlem: kr. 10.000 ekskl. moms Pris for hele uddannelsen (3 moduler + eksamination) DILF-medlem: kr. 25.000 ekskl. moms 48

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Læs mere om uddannelsen og tilmeld dig her

DÉT SIGER DELTAGERNE:

ANNONCE

Kursuslederne har en motiverende tilgang, meget smittende humør, god energi og rigtig god kontakt til os alle. - Jesper Studstrup, Carsoe A/S Super fedt, at I har så meget erfaring. - Pernille Deigaard, Danfoss Virkelig godt & inspirerende kursus/kursusledere. Jeg tager meget med mig hjem. - Christina Janus Petersen, AMBU A/S Udfordrende, lærerigt, fuld af aha-oplevelser. - Simon Friberg, Rambøll Danmark Gode eksempler fra virkeligheden, så det ikke bliver for teoretisk. - Elfi Nielsen, BWSC A/S Super præcis formidling. God dossering mellem teori og øvelser. - Anders Eibye Hansen, Hansens Flødeis

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HD I SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT VED SYDDANSK UNIVERSITET: FORSKNINGSBASERET EFTERUDDANNELSE MED STÆRK PRAKTISK RELEVANS af Professor Jan Stentoft og Lektor Ole Stegmann Mikkelsen, Syddansk Universitet, Kolding

Supply Chain Management har fokus på tværgående materiale, informations- og pengestrømme både i den enkelte virksomhed og mellem virksomheder i kæder og netværk. Effektiv ledelse af virksomheders supply chains kan bidrage til øget konkurrencekraft gennem såvel omsætningsforøgende tiltag (eksempelvis forbedret leveringsevne og leveringsservice) samt omkostningsreduktioner (eksempelvis reducerede materiale-, transport- og mandskabsomkostninger). Derudover har Supply Chain Management fokus på at forbedre Net Working Capital. For at indfri det fulde potentiale af Supply Chain Management er det vigtigt, at topledelsen erkender den strategiske vigtighed af SCM. Førende virksomheder har således erkendt, at forsyningskæden skal have samme strategiske opmærksomhed som produktudvikling og salg/ marketing. Supply Chain Management er ligeledes ikke kun et anliggende for produktionsvirksomheder men også for andre af værdikædens aktører såsom logistik og transport, handelsvirk-

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somheder, servicevirksomheder og offentlige virksomheder. Globaliseringen af forsyningskæderne bidrager for mange virksomheder til kraftigt øget kompleksitet og dynamik af samme, hvilket kan sætte pres på lead-time og lagerbinding. Nye undersøgelser peger på, at der er behov for supply chain-talent til både at håndtere større analytiske datamæssige opgaver (supply chain analytics) og færdigheder inden for relationsledelse, hvor man evner at helhedstænke på tværs af de traditionelle funktionsmæssige siloer. Uddannelsen styrker således deltagernes kompetencer til at bekæmpe silokultur. På de indre linjer kan der i virksomheder være udfordringer med: • At sikre produkt-, service- og kundeprofitabilitet • At sikre fokus på at balancere udbud og efterspørgsel gennem Sales & Operations Planning • At inddrage adfærdsaspekter gennem key

UDDANNELSE

Den 1. september 2021 planlægges endnu engang et nyt HD 2. del hold med speciale i Supply Chain Management på Syddansk Universitet i Kolding. Uddannelsen fokuserer på såvel drifts- som udviklingsmæssige teorier, anvendelsesorienterede værktøjer og metoder samt konkrete ledelsesmæssige aspekter af virksomheders udfordringer som deltagere i globale forsyningskæder.

behavioral indicators som supplement til key performance indicators • At sikre konkurrencedygtig drift gennem brug af nye digitale teknologier/Industri 4.0 • At sikre de rette kompetencer (analytiske kompetencer og relationsledelseskompetencer) • At sikre effektive produktionsprocesser og administrative processer skræddersyet til situationsbestemte forhold Af eksterne udfordringer for virksomhederne, som påvirker Supply Chain Management, og som også adresseres under uddannelsen, kan bl.a. nævnes: • Resilience (f.eks. hvordan COVID-19 og andre disruptions påvirker globale forsyningskæder) • Hvad betyder Brexit? • Compliance med FN’s 17 verdensmål • Interventionistisk handels- og industripolitik mellem USA og Kina • Politisk uro

HD-specialiseringen i Supply Chain Management er forankret i Supply Chain Management forskningsmiljøet ved Institut for Entreprenørskab og Relationsledelse, Syddansk Universitet i Kolding. Specialiseringen er udviklet og videreudviklet med udgangspunkt i erhvervslivets efterspørgsel. Det første hold startede tilbage i efteråret 2012, og i dag har mere end 100 dimitteret som HD i Supply Chain Management fra SDU i Kolding. Vi lever i en dynamisk verden, hvorfor der løbende sker evaluering af fagenes indhold ud fra en praktisk og teoretisk relevansvinkel. Uddannelsen har stærk fokus på at være anvendelsesorienteret, men bygger samtidig på instituttets solide forskningsmæssige profil og resultater inden for bl.a. supply chain innovation, industri 4.0, strategisk sourcing, supply chain resilience, sales & operations planning og udflytning og hjemtagning af administrative opgaver og produktionsopgaver. Undervisningen er forskningsbaseret, hvilket bl.a. betyder, at aktuel forskning inddrages i undervisningen; at den DILFAKTUELT

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studerende får læring om videnskabelsesprocessen for dermed at styrke en konstruktiv og kritisk stillingtagen til eksisterende og ny viden samt opnår forståelse for, hvad god viden er. Uddannelsen har fokus på såvel ledelsesmæssige som analytiske værktøjer samt på kompetenceudvikling, der både tilgodeser drifts- og forretningsudviklingsmæssige færdigheder. Uddannelsen henvender sig specielt til nuværende og kommende specialister og ledere med tværgående drifts- og udviklingsopgaver inden for logistik, indkøb, produktion, planlægning, lager og distribution. Uddannelsen er relevant for ansatte i såvel den private som den offentlige sektor. Tidligere og nuværende studerende kommer fra en bred vifte af private virksomheder (f.eks. logistik og transport, produktion, handel og service) og offentlige virksomheder (f.eks. kommuner og forsvaret). Deltagerne kommer endvidere fra både små, mellemstore og store virksomheder. Styrken ved uddannelsen er dens praktiske relevans, brug af virkelige cases, deling af viden mellem deltagerne og konkrete metoder og værktøjer til drift og udvikling af forsyningskæderne. Studiets opbygning og struktur HD 2. del specialet i Supply Chain Management lægger ud med et grundfag omfattende centrale teorier og metoder inden for Operations og Supply Chain Management (se figur 1). Faget har til formål at gøre den studerende i stand til -at reflektere over teoriernes og metodernes anvendelse i praksis. På 2. semester bygges der videre med fag, der fokuserer på såvel den analytiske som den ledelsesmæssige del af Supply Chain Management (supply chain costing, supply chain design & innovation og supply chain analytics). På studiets 3. semester udarbejdes et praktisk seminar, hvor den studerende opøves i at kunne identificere og løse en eller flere praktiske og relevante supply chain-problemstillinger ved hjælp af fagets teori og metode. Det praktiske

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seminar står selvstændigt, men er samtidig en form for ”generalprøve” til det senere afgangsprojekt på 4. semester. Herudover indgår der i semestret to valgfag, som kan vælges inden for HD 2. dels samlede udbud af valgfag. Eksempler på valgfag udbudt direkte i forbindelse med specialet i Supply Chain Management er Sales & Operations Planning, strategisk sourcing og supply chain resilience. Det endelige udbud af valgfag, for alle HD-retninger, meldes ud i forårssemesteret. Uddannelsen afsluttes med et afgangsprojekt, hvor den studerende fordyber sig i et specifikt emne eller en konkret problemstilling. Den studerende skal her selvstændigt identificere og formulere et problem, som skal behandles med videnskabelige metoder og løses på en praktisk anvendelig måde, og som afsluttes med konklusioner og anbefalinger, der løser det formulerede problem. I erkendelse af, at målgruppen for uddannelsen ofte er travle medarbejdere, afvikles fagene på HD-specialet i Supply Chain Management som heldagsundervisning på fredage og lørdage. Dette sker også for at synliggøre vigtigheden af uddannelsesaktiviteter for medarbejdere og virksomheder som et naturligt element af arbejdstiden fremfor alene at være en fritidsaktivitet. Ligeledes er det erfaringen, at heldagsundervisning, i forhold til traditionel aftenundervisning, giver øget mulighed for dialog og interaktion mellem studerende og undervisere, men også de studerende imellem. Uddannelsen giver dermed mulighed for at udbygge ens personlige netværk. Det er vores erfaring, at uddannelsen er en god investering for både virksomhederne og medarbejderne, idet de studerende ikke blot kommer tilbage med ny viden, og dermed nye spørgsmål til den kørende praksis, men også via dybdegående analyser kommer med ændringsforslag til øget konkurrencekraft. Det er derfor ikke usandsynligt, at investeringen i uddannelsen er mere end selvfinansierende. Elementer af undervisningen kan finde sted på engelsk.

Figur 1. Opbygning af HD 2. del specialet i Supply Chain Management ved Syddansk Universitet

1. semester

Operations & Supply Chain Management 15 ECTS

2. semester

3. semester

Supply Chain Costing 5 ECTS

Seminar 5 ECTS

Supply Chain Design & Innovation 5 ECTS

Supply Chain Analytics 5 ECTS

“

Valgfag 1 5 ECTS F.eks. Strategisk Sourcing

4. semester

Afgangsprojekt 15 ECTS

Valgfag 2 5 ECTS F.eks. Sales & Operations Planning

Lærke Schmidt Rasmussen, Supplier Account Assistant - SRM, Grundfos Operations A/S, skriver afgangsprojekt foråret 2021 Jeg undersøgte markedet grundigt, som de fleste indkøbere nok ville, og fandt uddannelsen tiltrækkende. For mig var målet med uddannelsen af få en brugbar uddannelse inden for indkøb og Supply Chain og dermed få midlet til at understøtte udviklingen af mit arbejde. Uddannelsen har givet mig viden og begreber, der gør det nemmere at navigere og kommunikere internt i organisationen. Der har igennem hele uddannelsen været stor fokus på en holistisk praksis. Viden, begreber og fokus der i dag gør det mere klart for mig, hvilke spørgsmål der bør stilles, også selvom disse påvirker andre funktioner eller virksomheder. Udover valgfaget, målrettet indkøb, ser jeg den overordnede teoretiske viden om supply chain som et kæmpestort plus i mit arbejde med leverandører. Min viden gør det muligt at forstå nye problemstillinger og forudse risici langt hurtigere samt understøtte, udfordre og optimere leverandøren og samarbejdet. I sidste ende resulterer det i større værdi for os.

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“

Morten Dalsgaard Pedersen, Logistics & Purchase Director, Nel Hydrogen, skriver afgangsprojekt foråret 2021

ADGANGSKRAV Adgang til HD 2. del kræver en af følgende uddannelser:

Som supply chain professionel og leder er behovet for selv at få flere værktøjer øget. Ligeledes er behovet for at kunne tilbyde kolleger en mere kvalificeret sparring øget. HD 2. del i SCM i Kolding tilbyder en bred palette af praksisorienteret teori ud i supply chain både i relation til de hårde værktøjer men også med en stor grad af fokus på de mere bløde aspekter. Dette kommer til udtryk ved, at studiet har en høj grad af praktisk anvendelighed, der understøtter, udvikler og udfordrer egne erfaringer.

• HD 1. del • Erhvervsøkonomisk bacheloruddannelse • Relevant akademiuddannelse (KVU) eller videregående voksenuddannelse (VVU) på HD 1. dels niveau

Uddannelsen har påvirket mig bevidst og ubevidst i væsentlig større grad, end jeg havde forventet. Oplevelsen af at have et mere detaljeret kort i baglommen, og en bedre udstyret værktøjskasse under armen, er værdifuld. Dem, der for alvor kan vurdere, om praksis er ændret, er nok mine kolleger. Her er det min oplevelse, at de mener, at der er adgang til en bedre og bredere sparring. Endvidere synes jeg, at min tilgang til problemløsning er blevet mere metodisk. I mit afgangsprojekt fokuserer jeg gennem analyse og dialog på at identificere og kvalificere forbedringsforslag i design af forsyningskæden i Nel Hydrogen.

Uanset adgangsgivende uddannelse skal du desuden have minimum to års relevant erhvervserfaring. Ansøgere, der ikke opfylder ovennævnte krav, kan søge om optagelse på baggrund af en konkret vurdering af de uddannelsesmæssige forudsætninger. KONTAKT Læs mere om uddannelsen på www.blivhd.dk, hvor du blandt andet kan finde ansøgningsskemaer. Du kan få besvaret spørgsmål om HD 1. og 2. del i Supply Chain Management ved at ringe eller skrive til: • HD 1. del: Tlf. 65 50 91 24 / 65 50 91 13 eller e-mail hd1@sam.sdu.dk • HD 2. del: Supply Chain Management: Tlf. 65 50 91 22 eller e-mail hdscm@sam.sdu.dk • HD-udvalget: Tlf. 65 50 91 22 eller e-mail: hd@sam.sdu.dk

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Executive seminar in e-auctions — A practitioner’s guide to successful e-auctions

This is an exclusive opportunity to increase your impact by adopting a strategic approach to e-auctions. The seminar pairs best practice with relevant theory and research to enhance capabilities and the understanding of e-auctions at all levels. Through a mix of lectures and interactive case discussions, the seminar will prepare participants to accelerate adoption of e-auctions. Jacob Gorm Larsen will be the facilitator of the executive seminar.

INTRODUCTION

ANNONCE

Introduction E-auctions vs. negotiations Key benefits The history of e-auctions Applicability of e-auctions Addressing the myths... The theoretical value proposition Cognitive bias Competitive arousal Auction theory Quasi endowment effect The future of e-auctions

E-AUCTION STRATEGY

Game theory — e-auctions as a strategic game

Negotiauction — the importance of a holistic approach E-auction objectives Six steps in successful e-auctions Awarding & Game design Value design E-auction format Visibility Bid rules & structure Timing

BIDDER & BUYER ADOPTION Procedural fairness E-auction principles — exercise Communication templates Bidder training concepts Do’s and dont’s for bidders E-auctions COE set-up Change Management catalogue Make it strategic Re-invent yourself Build your pipeline — exercise

Time and place

Price

1st September 2021, 09.00 – 17.00

Member of DILF: DKK 5.000 ex vat

Comwell Roskilde

Non-members: DKK 6.800 ex vat

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...VIL DU VIDE MERE? Her finder du flere artikler om månedens begreb S&OP

Integrated Business Planning plus: Your journey towards digital end-to-end planning I denne artikel visualiseres din rejse mod digital end-to-end-planlægning. En stabil S&OP-proces er nødvendig som grundlag for yderligere forbedring, men Integrated Business Planning er det næste skridt til værdifuld indsigt i digitale muligheder. by Deloitte

Planning in an agile organization

Denne artikel fremhæver vigtigheden af agilitet. Agile organisationer er dybt afhængige af at bringe planlægning til et niveau, der passer med deres hurtigt voksende behov. Evnen til hurtigt at omorganisere organisationen mod værdifulde muligheder er netop essentiel, da ydeevnen på tværs af virksomheden forbedres markant. by McKinsey & Company

The demand driven enterprise

Luft- og forsvarsforsyningskæderne forstyrres fra alle sider – fra nye kunders forventninger og digitale teknologier til uforudsete chok. DDMRP indleder et nyt forsyningskædeparadigme baseret på hurtigere materialestrømme og realtidsdata, der i sidste ende forbedrer lagerstyring og beslutningstagning. Accenture præsenterer i denne artikel en simpel skræddersyet løsning til enhver virksomhed. by Accenture

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Smoother execution through S&OP

Sales and Operations Planning er en veletableret proces til at aligne forretningsmål med operationer. Læs med i denne artikel og find ud af, hvordan planlægningsløsninger i højere grad bliver i stand til at vurdere what-if-scenarier på måder, der gør S&OP mere effektiv og meningsfuld. by Logistics Management

Strategic Planning With Uncertainty About Pandemic’s End

I usikre tider er nøglen til strategisk planlægning den at finde ud af, hvad der har ændret sig, og hvad der ikke har, samt hvad der stadig er usikkert. Læs meget mere i denne artikel, som omhandler strategisk planlægning i en tid, hvor der er stor usikkerhed ift. pandemiens afslutning. by Forbes

The World Has Changed – So Must Your S&OP Process

Mens Supply Chain- og Operations-ledere arbejder på at komme tilbage til normale mønstre, er det tydeligt, at intet længere er business-as-usual. Denne artikel omhandler, hvordan det i planlægningen af kundeaktivitet efter COVID-19 ikke er tilstrækkeligt bare at forvente, at fremtidig salg kommer til at ligne tidligere salg. by IndustryWeek

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BOGANMELDELSE

INDFØRELSE AF S&OP ER EN KONTAKTSPORT – læs bogen i morgen

Find bogen online her

ANMELDT AF: Henrik Knak, S&OP ekspert og leder af Syncronic’s Strategiafdeling

“The Goal” (eller “Målet” på dansk) af Eliyahu Goldratt har siden 1984 været min absolut foretrukne lærebogsnovelle. En ‘page turner’ af rang, hvor læseren følger fabrikschefen Alex Rogo’s 90 dages kamp med at redde hans fabrik fra dårlig performance og lukning. Det lykkes, naturligvis. Min #2 bog på listen for denne type af bøger, hvor ny viden og lærdom blandes med novelleformen og en fiktiv mands kamp for at forbedre en virksomhed, er “Enterprise Sales and Operations Planning” af George Palmatier og Colleen (Coco) Crum, begge fra den amerikanske konsulentvirksomhed Oliver Wight. Oliver Wight er den oprindelige opfinder af begrebet S&OP. Bogen er udgivet af APICS, som er verdens førende SCM-faglige organisation, der bl.a. ejer SCOR-modellen.

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UDGAVE NR. 11

Bogen gennemgår på glimrende vis samtlige faser i forløbet fra erkendelse af behovet, analyse, uddannelse over design til indførelse af S&OP-processen i en virksomhed med flere divisioner. Vi følger Mark Ryan, General Manager i Universal Products, og hans personlige kamp med at få direktionen og lederne med på vognen. I fortrolighed kan jeg fortælle, at hans kamp lykkes trods talrige tilbageslag: Salg og profit steg, omkostninger faldt, og hele værdikæden blev optimalt synkroniseret. Trods den amerikanske skrivestil og lidt for megen snik-snak-fyld så er bogens 256 sider et anbefalelsesværdigt besøg. Den indeholder et ton af gode modeller, teknikker og konkrete tiltag, som er nogenlunde lige til at gøre brug af. Der er megen tekst og talesprog, men bogen er letlæselig og spændende at følge via Mark’s

kamp over en periode på 30 måneder. Bogen fokuserer på den menneskelige dimension, og hvordan du etablerer en effektiv proces via virksomhedens ledere med udgangspunkt i top-down-uddannelse, en klar procesmodel og opbakning fra toppen. Indførelse af S&OP er bestemt en kontaktsport.

“

Den har en del ’best practice’-inspiration, som fortsat er yderst relevant for dagens virksomheder trods dens knap 18 år på bagen.

Bogen indeholder mange fine figurer og en del detaljer omkring hvert trin i S&OP-processen med en overvægt på demand-planlægningen. Den har en del ’best practice’-inspiration, som fortsat er yderst relevant for dagens virksomheder trods dens knap 18 år på bagen. Faktisk kan selv dygtige S&OP-performende virksomheder finde inspiration i denne bog, da den i høj grad inddrager ’Integrated Business Management’ og dermed koblingen til den strategiske planlægning samt integration af finansielle elementer, hvilket de fleste fortsat kæmper med. Leder du efter en teknisk bog, som kan give dig direkte og praktisk anvendelige løsninger, swimlanes, RACI-matricer, ’Terms of Reference’ til møder og reviews samt anbefalinger omkring IT-løsning, så er dette ikke den rette bog for dig. Download i stedet en S&OP-håndbog fra en af de danske konsulenthuse og læs f.eks. DILF’s artikel om ’En tsunami af SCP-implementeringer er på vej’./

PRODUKT DETALJER: Name: Enterprise Sales and Operations Planning Print Length: 289 pages Page Numbers Source ISBN: 1932159002 Publisher: J. Ross Publishing; 1st edition (October 1, 2002) Publication Date: October 1, 2002 Language: English

DILFAKTUELT

MAJ 2021

UDGAVE NR. 11

BLANDEDE ARTIKLER Kan du ikke få nok? Her kan du læse spændende artikler, som ikke omhandler S&OP.

How to Sustain the Accelerated Pace of Digital Business Transformation Det udbredte forsøg på at fremskynde digitale forretningsinitiativer har betydet store ændringer i den måde, hvorpå arbejde bliver gjort og måden, hvorpå beslutninger træffes.

På trods af et hårdt år for samfund og erhvervsliv fremskynder stadig flere virksomheder deres processer i forbindelse med implementeringen af kunstig intelligens.

For at opretholde det accelererede tempo i den digitale forretningstransformation bør du stoppe op for at finde ud af, hvad der fungerer og evaluere, hvordan du kan overføre succes til den igangværende transformation samt lære af de nye tendenser.

Men hvad er de største tendenser inden for AI og brugen af data i 2021? Og hvordan skal du som beslutningstager i en privat virksomhed eller en offentlig institution navigere i teknologien, så du både høster frugterne ved nye muligheder og samtidig håndterer risici bedst muligt?

by Gartner

af PwC

Scenario-based cash planning in a crisis: Lessons for the next normal

Deep Tech and the Great Wave of Innovation

COVID-19-pandemien har tvunget mange virksomheder til omhyggeligt at revidere udformede strategier og budgetter som forberedelse til den ”næste normale”. Et centralt spørgsmål og en gennemgående udfordring for både topledere og strategiske planlæggere er, hvordan man bedst planlægger en uklar fremtid. I denne artikel bliver du introduceret til fem best practices, der kan sikre, at organisationer er fuldt forberedt på fremtidige udfordringer. by McKinsey & Company

AI i 2021 – Hent forretningsværdi på fem centrale områder

DILFAKTUELT

MAJ 2021

UDGAVE NR. 11

I denne artikel kan du læse om den næste store bølge af innovation, der er drevet af nye teknologier og tilgangen til dybteknologiske iværksættere. Dens økonomiske, forretningsmæssige og sociale indvirkning kan mærkes overalt, fordi dybteknologiske projekter sigter mod at løse mange af vores mest komplekse problemer. Den store bølge omfatter blandt andet kunstig intelligens (AI), syntetisk biologi, nanoteknologi og andre avancerede teknologier. by Boston Consulting Group

CATEGORY MANAGEMENT UDDANNELSE & CERTIFICERING Få træning og uddannelse i, hvordan category managementtankegangen kan implementeres i din virksomhed, og hvordan du kan se frem til væsentlige besparelser på dine kategorier. Uddannelsen består af 5 moduler, som alle har category management som indgangsvinkel: Modul Modul Modul Modul Modul

1 – Kategoritankegangen 2 – Intern analyse - spend management 3 – Ekstern analyse - markedsanalyse 4 – Kategoristrategi 5 – Leverandørstyring

ANNONCE

Uddannelsen afsluttes med en challenge session og certificering.

TILMELD DIG HER

Pris for DILF-medlemmer inkl. certificering: Kr. 25.000, - ekskl. moms Hold 16 starter d. 23. september 2021 Comwell Middelfart

DET SIGER DELTAGERNE: ”En dygtig underviser, der gerne fortæller om og relaterer til hverdagen, gør oplevelsen unik og læring til en leg.” - Søren R. Kjul, Serman & Tipsmark A/S ”Massere af information og teori med meget højt fokus på at gøre noget og lave nogle actions! God og energisk underviser.”

- Kiwin Krøjgaard, Struers A/S

Læs mere på www.dilf.dk eller kontakt DILFAKTUELT MAJ 2021 UDGAVE NR. 11 61 sekretariatet på tlf. 3321 1666

TIDLIGERE DILF-PUBLIKATIONER Læs tidligere artikler udgivet af DILF, der omhandler begrebet S&OP

2020

Success criteria for Sales & Operations Planning by Jan Stentoft, University ofSouthern Denmark Derfor er DDMRP en overlegen operationel planlægningsstrategi af Stefan Glar-Hammarsund, Syncronic ApS

2019

En tsunami af SCPimplementeringer er på vej af Henrik Knak, Syncronic ApS

2018

Integreret forretningsplanlægning – hvorfor spiller dine ledere ikke på samme hold? af Henrik Knak, Syncronic ApS Sales & Operations Planning: It’s all about people by Jan Stentoft, Syddansk Universitet, Per Vagn Freytag, Syddansk Universitet, og Søren Eckhardt, Mercuri Urval

DILFAKTUELT

MAJ 2021

UDGAVE NR. 11

2017

Sådan påvirker digitaliseringen S&OP af Henrik Knak, Syncronic ApS Sådan påvirker digitaliseringen S&OP – del 2 af Henrik Knak, Syncronic ApS S&OP-modenhed blandt danske virksomheder af Camilla Thuge Lund, Syncronic ApS

2016

S&OP made good: The importance of investing in people by Hugh Williams

2012

Change management for S&OP: The most important task in making S&OP successful by Tom Wallace, Specialist in S&OP Sales & operations planning: cost and benefits: The financial view of implementing Executive S&OP by Tom Wallace, Specialist in S&OP

FØLG OS PÅ LINKED

2010

Sales & operations planning – collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment af Bo Møller, Valcon

2009

The role of S&OP in a depressed economy by Jane Lee, Supply Chain Consultants

2008

The secrets to S&OP success by Maha Muzumdar and John Fontanella, Supply Chain Management Review

DILFAKTUELT

MAJ 2021

UDGAVE NR. 11