2017 WAS GREAT BUT 2018 SHOULD BE BETTER
ELLIOTT D. POLL ACK & COMPANY
2007
2008
2009
2010
Pinal Yavapai
50K
2014
2015
2016
2017
City
Aguila
HUD
87,920
87,728
75,071
Anthem
REO
93,511
99,527 91,042
Transaction Type
Apache Junction
Short
Arizona City
Normal
Arlington Avondale
Transaction Type HUD
Zip
Normal REO
85008
Price Range
85009
A. $0K to $25K
85012
12 MONTH MOVING AVERAGE SALES PRICE PER SQ. FT.
85013
C. $50K to $75K
85014
County Maricopa
D. $75K to $100K
12-Month Moving Average Sales Price per Square Foot GREATER PHOENIX - ARMLS RESIDENTIAL - MEASURED MONTHLY Greater Phoenix - ARMLS Residential Resale - Based on Calendar Month 1/1/2018 Last Update 1/9/2018 2:19:04 PM
85015
E. $100K to $125K
85016
F. $125K to $150K
G. $150K to $175K
30K
85003 85006 85007
B. $25K to $50K
40K
Black Canyon City
85004
Short
53,131
60K
2013
58,384
70K
2012
73,064
79,181
90K
80K
2011
89,222
100K
2006
82,291
2005
83,666
2004
103,178
2003
97,634
2002
H. $175K to $200K
© 2017 Cromford Associates LLC - sharing is permitted for Cromford Report subscribers only
20K
I. $200K to $250K
85017 85018
Pinal
Yavapai Year of Close Date 2000
J. $250K to $300K
2001
$150.37 K. $300K to $400K $148.69 2002 DwellingType $145.81L. $400K to $500K $149.48 2003 Condo M. $500K to $600K 2004 $142.98 $146.66 Mobile N. $600K to $800K 2005 $140.06 $143.91 SFR O. $800K to $1M
$150 10K 0K
$140
2006
$136.97 $139.28 $134.42 $132.06 $136.35 $129.52 $133.50 $127.79 $131.05 $125.38 $128.50 $122.30 $126.73 $119.70 $123.67 $118.58 $120.82 $116.06 $117.28 $113.17 $114.49
$130
$120
$110
$109.61 $105.83
Transaction Type Normal Short Sale Lender Owned HUD Sale
List Price Range A. $0K to $25K
$111.43
$107.77
B. $25K to $50K
$99.99
$100
$103.86 $98.39
$96.41 $92.80 $89.49
$90
$86.21
C. $50K to $75K
D. $75K to $100
$94.68
E. $100K to $12
$91.15
F. $125K to $15
$87.88
G. $150K to $17
$82.29 $83.33 $81.66 $80 $81.88
H. $175K to $20
February 2018
August 2017
October 2017
December 2017
April 2017
June 2017
February 2017
December 2016
August 2016
October 2016
April 2016
June 2016
February 2016
August 2015
October 2015
December 2015
April 2015
June 2015
February 2015
December 2014
August 2014
October 2014
April 2014
June 2014
February 2014
August 2013
October 2013
I. $200K to $250 December 2013
“Boomerang Buyers”, buyers returning to homeownership after suffering a short sale or foreclosure, will still be out in 2018 but this will be the last year of significant activity from this segment. The vast majority of them completed mandatory wait periods for FHA and conventional financing between 2015 and 2017, removing a major roadblock on credit reports and allowing many to
Maricopa
Mobile SFR
© 2016 Cromford Associates LLC - sharing is permitted from Cromford Report subscribers only
2001
110K
April 2013
The market continues to favor sellers, especially under $275,000. Over 51% of newly constructed condominiums, townhomes and single family residences sold were between $275,000 and $500,000 as of November 2017. The lack of new construction in the lower price ranges has created an opportunity for flip investors looking to capitalize on demand from first-time homebuyers for move-in ready homes. There were 7,472 flip sales, categorized as those homes bought and sold within a 6-month period, year-to-date through November 2017. That is 21% over 2016 and 49% over 2014 within the same time frame, but still well below 2012’s volume of 12,771.
County
Condo
Last Update: 1/1/2018 11:16:51 PM
June 2013
SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS 10% Increase in 2018 10% Increase in 2019
Sales volume increased 6.4% from an annual rate of 87,920 to 93,511. This makes 2017 the highest year since 2011 and the fourth highest year overall for sales volume. Total dollar volume increased 14% from $24.4 billion to $27.8 billion, placing 2017 in second place overall for total money spent on residential resale transactions. 2005 was the highest year for total dollar volume at $30.9 billion.
Dwelling Type
Annual Sales Rate
Greater Phoenix - ARMLS Residential - Measured Monthly
February 2013
EMPLOYMENT 2.8% Increase in 2018 2.5% Increase in 2019
The annual median sales price gained 6.6% from $225,000 to $239,900
December 2012
RETAIL SALES 4.2% Increase in 2018 3.8% Increase in 2019
The annual average sales price increased 7.2% from $277,476 to $297,317
August 2012
POPULATION 1.8% Increase in 2018 1.8% Increase in 2019
The annual average price per square foot rose 6.4% from $141.29 to $150.37
October 2012
GREATER PHOENIX ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT
SOURCE: ELLIOTT D. POLLACK & CO., JANUARY 2018
ANNUAL SALES RATE GREATER PHOENIX - ARMLS RESIDENTIAL - MEASURED MONTHLY 1/1/2018
68,210
Taking all of this into account, we believe 2018 will be a better year for the economy overall. We expect employment to increase by an estimated 2.3% across Arizona and 2.8% in Greater Phoenix. We are expecting population to grow 1.6% this year and 1.7% growth next year for the state and slightly higher growth in Greater Phoenix. Housing should continue at a strong upward pace of roughly 10% growth per year for the next two years. And retail sales should grow by 3-4% in the short term.
For the overall market across Greater Phoenix, price trends capping off 2017 are as follows according to Arizona Regional MLS sales:
April 2012
Despite these lingering questions, it looks like the positives substantially outweigh the negatives. There is always room for caution. But, as for now, enjoy the moment and 2018.
he residential resale market in Greater Phoenix continued to strengthen in 2017 and prices are poised to continue improving faster than the rate of inflation into 2018, particularly in the lower price ranges.
June 2012
This brighter outlook comes on top of continued growth in corporate profits, the highest level of consumer optimism in 17 years, real personal income growth and growth in personal
There are still questions we have about potential problems facing the economy. Is the stock market too high? Can consumers sustain growth in spending? Will the vitriol in American politics poison the party? Will the new stimulus work?
T
Overall, the market remains healthy going into 2018. Sales prices are expected to continue rising faster than the rate of inflation below $400,000, which means buyers will be purchasing smaller homes for their money this year. Buyers between $400,000 and $1.5M will find a more balanced market with extra wiggle room for price negotiations. Higher inventory in the market over $1.5M is causing prices to decline despite a 17% increase in sales volume, good news for luxury buyers in this price point.
62,346
This stimulus comes late in the business cycle. This is the third longest recovery/expansion in U.S. history. If the expansion lasts until mid-2019, it will be the longest recovery in U.S. history. To this point, the level of economic activity this cycle has been much slower than any of its predecessors. Going forward that might change. It remains to be seen how this late cycle stimulus plays out. But, the near term outlook has become more positive.
In relative terms, the economy is running on all cylinders. And, the imbalances that usually result from this strength in economic activity are not in sight. Due to the slower than usual recovery, the normal pressures felt at this stage of the cycle are not here at the moment. Given the stimulus that will be created by the tax cuts, reductions in regulation, and infrastructure spending that is likely to take place, growth is expected to accelerate in 2018.
February 2012
Also noteworthy, the House and Senate tax bills were reconciled and finally passed tax cuts along party lines which will go into effect this year. This should stimulate the economy sufficiently to make 2018 a better year than 2017. The longer run effects should also be positive.
consumption expenditures in excess of growth in personal income. In addition, the manufacturing sector continues to expand as does construction spending.
December 2011
rizona and the U.S. economy enjoyed one of the best years in recent memory. For most of 2017, every week seemed to be yet another good week for the economy. The stock market continued to set new highs, home prices climbed, unemployment dropped, and incomes increased above inflation. We did so well that the Fed Funds interest rate increased for the third time in the year, indicating confidence that the economy is growing at an acceptable pace. In their discussion of current economic events, the Fed expects the rate of growth to modestly accelerate, inflation to stay under control, and unemployment to reach sub4% sometime in 2018.
55,229
A
August 2011
|
Supply remains extremely short for homes under $200,000, which constitutes nearly 34% of all sales in Greater Phoenix. This large market share throws some influence on overall measures for the Valley, especially when it comes to appreciation. While the overall appreciation rate for Greater Phoenix is 6.4%, it’s not uncommon to see appreciation rates soar over 8% on properties under $200,000 and drop to 3-4% annually for the nearly 51% that sell between $200,000 and $400,000. Prospects for more supply on the low end are slim these days. Existing landlords with homes in this price range have little incentive to sell profitable rentals and the reported tax incentives planned for 2018 are expected to be in their favor. Existing owner occupants with homes under $200,000, many with favorable fixed interest rates, are choosing to stay and possibly renovate instead of braving the increasingly competitive homebuying market.
October 2011
BY: ELLIOTT D. POLL ACK
reconsider owning. Remaining demand for homeownership will need to come from inbound migration and an environment that continues to favor purchasing over renting.
J. $250K to $300
K. $300K to $40
L. $400K to $500
M. $500K to $60
N. $600K to $80
O. $800K to $1M
P. $1M to $1.5M
2017 WAS GREAT BUT 2018 SHOULD BE BETTER
ELLIOTT D. POLL ACK & COMPANY
2007
2008
2009
2010
Pinal Yavapai
50K
2014
2015
2016
2017
City
Aguila
HUD
87,920
87,728
75,071
Anthem
REO
93,511
99,527 91,042
Transaction Type
Apache Junction
Short
Arizona City
Normal
Arlington Avondale
Transaction Type HUD
Zip
Normal REO
85008
Price Range
85009
A. $0K to $25K
85012
12 MONTH MOVING AVERAGE SALES PRICE PER SQ. FT.
85013
C. $50K to $75K
85014
County Maricopa
D. $75K to $100K
12-Month Moving Average Sales Price per Square Foot GREATER PHOENIX - ARMLS RESIDENTIAL - MEASURED MONTHLY Greater Phoenix - ARMLS Residential Resale - Based on Calendar Month 1/1/2018 Last Update 1/9/2018 2:19:04 PM
85015
E. $100K to $125K
85016
F. $125K to $150K
G. $150K to $175K
30K
85003 85006 85007
B. $25K to $50K
40K
Black Canyon City
85004
Short
53,131
60K
2013
58,384
70K
2012
73,064
79,181
90K
80K
2011
89,222
100K
2006
82,291
2005
83,666
2004
103,178
2003
97,634
2002
H. $175K to $200K
© 2017 Cromford Associates LLC - sharing is permitted for Cromford Report subscribers only
20K
I. $200K to $250K
85017 85018
Pinal
Yavapai Year of Close Date 2000
J. $250K to $300K
2001
$150.37 K. $300K to $400K $148.69 2002 DwellingType $145.81L. $400K to $500K $149.48 2003 Condo M. $500K to $600K 2004 $142.98 $146.66 Mobile N. $600K to $800K 2005 $140.06 $143.91 SFR O. $800K to $1M
$150 10K 0K
$140
2006
$136.97 $139.28 $134.42 $132.06 $136.35 $129.52 $133.50 $127.79 $131.05 $125.38 $128.50 $122.30 $126.73 $119.70 $123.67 $118.58 $120.82 $116.06 $117.28 $113.17 $114.49
$130
$120
$110
$109.61 $105.83
Transaction Type Normal Short Sale Lender Owned HUD Sale
List Price Range A. $0K to $25K
$111.43
$107.77
B. $25K to $50K
$99.99
$100
$103.86 $98.39
$96.41 $92.80 $89.49
$90
$86.21
C. $50K to $75K
D. $75K to $100
$94.68
E. $100K to $12
$91.15
F. $125K to $15
$87.88
G. $150K to $17
$82.29 $83.33 $81.66 $80 $81.88
H. $175K to $20
February 2018
August 2017
October 2017
December 2017
April 2017
June 2017
February 2017
December 2016
August 2016
October 2016
April 2016
June 2016
February 2016
August 2015
October 2015
December 2015
April 2015
June 2015
February 2015
December 2014
August 2014
October 2014
April 2014
June 2014
February 2014
August 2013
October 2013
I. $200K to $250 December 2013
“Boomerang Buyers”, buyers returning to homeownership after suffering a short sale or foreclosure, will still be out in 2018 but this will be the last year of significant activity from this segment. The vast majority of them completed mandatory wait periods for FHA and conventional financing between 2015 and 2017, removing a major roadblock on credit reports and allowing many to
Maricopa
Mobile SFR
© 2016 Cromford Associates LLC - sharing is permitted from Cromford Report subscribers only
2001
110K
April 2013
The market continues to favor sellers, especially under $275,000. Over 51% of newly constructed condominiums, townhomes and single family residences sold were between $275,000 and $500,000 as of November 2017. The lack of new construction in the lower price ranges has created an opportunity for flip investors looking to capitalize on demand from first-time homebuyers for move-in ready homes. There were 7,472 flip sales, categorized as those homes bought and sold within a 6-month period, year-to-date through November 2017. That is 21% over 2016 and 49% over 2014 within the same time frame, but still well below 2012’s volume of 12,771.
County
Condo
Last Update: 1/1/2018 11:16:51 PM
June 2013
SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS 10% Increase in 2018 10% Increase in 2019
Sales volume increased 6.4% from an annual rate of 87,920 to 93,511. This makes 2017 the highest year since 2011 and the fourth highest year overall for sales volume. Total dollar volume increased 14% from $24.4 billion to $27.8 billion, placing 2017 in second place overall for total money spent on residential resale transactions. 2005 was the highest year for total dollar volume at $30.9 billion.
Dwelling Type
Annual Sales Rate
Greater Phoenix - ARMLS Residential - Measured Monthly
February 2013
EMPLOYMENT 2.8% Increase in 2018 2.5% Increase in 2019
The annual median sales price gained 6.6% from $225,000 to $239,900
December 2012
RETAIL SALES 4.2% Increase in 2018 3.8% Increase in 2019
The annual average sales price increased 7.2% from $277,476 to $297,317
August 2012
POPULATION 1.8% Increase in 2018 1.8% Increase in 2019
The annual average price per square foot rose 6.4% from $141.29 to $150.37
October 2012
GREATER PHOENIX ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT
SOURCE: ELLIOTT D. POLLACK & CO., JANUARY 2018
ANNUAL SALES RATE GREATER PHOENIX - ARMLS RESIDENTIAL - MEASURED MONTHLY 1/1/2018
68,210
Taking all of this into account, we believe 2018 will be a better year for the economy overall. We expect employment to increase by an estimated 2.3% across Arizona and 2.8% in Greater Phoenix. We are expecting population to grow 1.6% this year and 1.7% growth next year for the state and slightly higher growth in Greater Phoenix. Housing should continue at a strong upward pace of roughly 10% growth per year for the next two years. And retail sales should grow by 3-4% in the short term.
For the overall market across Greater Phoenix, price trends capping off 2017 are as follows according to Arizona Regional MLS sales:
April 2012
Despite these lingering questions, it looks like the positives substantially outweigh the negatives. There is always room for caution. But, as for now, enjoy the moment and 2018.
he residential resale market in Greater Phoenix continued to strengthen in 2017 and prices are poised to continue improving faster than the rate of inflation into 2018, particularly in the lower price ranges.
June 2012
This brighter outlook comes on top of continued growth in corporate profits, the highest level of consumer optimism in 17 years, real personal income growth and growth in personal
There are still questions we have about potential problems facing the economy. Is the stock market too high? Can consumers sustain growth in spending? Will the vitriol in American politics poison the party? Will the new stimulus work?
T
Overall, the market remains healthy going into 2018. Sales prices are expected to continue rising faster than the rate of inflation below $400,000, which means buyers will be purchasing smaller homes for their money this year. Buyers between $400,000 and $1.5M will find a more balanced market with extra wiggle room for price negotiations. Higher inventory in the market over $1.5M is causing prices to decline despite a 17% increase in sales volume, good news for luxury buyers in this price point.
62,346
This stimulus comes late in the business cycle. This is the third longest recovery/expansion in U.S. history. If the expansion lasts until mid-2019, it will be the longest recovery in U.S. history. To this point, the level of economic activity this cycle has been much slower than any of its predecessors. Going forward that might change. It remains to be seen how this late cycle stimulus plays out. But, the near term outlook has become more positive.
In relative terms, the economy is running on all cylinders. And, the imbalances that usually result from this strength in economic activity are not in sight. Due to the slower than usual recovery, the normal pressures felt at this stage of the cycle are not here at the moment. Given the stimulus that will be created by the tax cuts, reductions in regulation, and infrastructure spending that is likely to take place, growth is expected to accelerate in 2018.
February 2012
Also noteworthy, the House and Senate tax bills were reconciled and finally passed tax cuts along party lines which will go into effect this year. This should stimulate the economy sufficiently to make 2018 a better year than 2017. The longer run effects should also be positive.
consumption expenditures in excess of growth in personal income. In addition, the manufacturing sector continues to expand as does construction spending.
December 2011
rizona and the U.S. economy enjoyed one of the best years in recent memory. For most of 2017, every week seemed to be yet another good week for the economy. The stock market continued to set new highs, home prices climbed, unemployment dropped, and incomes increased above inflation. We did so well that the Fed Funds interest rate increased for the third time in the year, indicating confidence that the economy is growing at an acceptable pace. In their discussion of current economic events, the Fed expects the rate of growth to modestly accelerate, inflation to stay under control, and unemployment to reach sub4% sometime in 2018.
55,229
A
August 2011
|
Supply remains extremely short for homes under $200,000, which constitutes nearly 34% of all sales in Greater Phoenix. This large market share throws some influence on overall measures for the Valley, especially when it comes to appreciation. While the overall appreciation rate for Greater Phoenix is 6.4%, it’s not uncommon to see appreciation rates soar over 8% on properties under $200,000 and drop to 3-4% annually for the nearly 51% that sell between $200,000 and $400,000. Prospects for more supply on the low end are slim these days. Existing landlords with homes in this price range have little incentive to sell profitable rentals and the reported tax incentives planned for 2018 are expected to be in their favor. Existing owner occupants with homes under $200,000, many with favorable fixed interest rates, are choosing to stay and possibly renovate instead of braving the increasingly competitive homebuying market.
October 2011
BY: ELLIOTT D. POLL ACK
reconsider owning. Remaining demand for homeownership will need to come from inbound migration and an environment that continues to favor purchasing over renting.
J. $250K to $300
K. $300K to $40
L. $400K to $500
M. $500K to $60
N. $600K to $80
O. $800K to $1M
P. $1M to $1.5M
METRO PHOENIX BY THE NUMBERS
AVERAGE SALES PRICE BY CITY
2016
2017
Glendale
$231,217
$252,137
Mesa
$253,071
$297,023
Phoenix
$277,550
$277,633
Peoria
$297,842
$306,181
Tempe
$303,113
$339,727
Gilbert
$306,823
$317,249
Litchfield Park
$314,849
$339,386
Chandler
$318,920
$343,813
Cave Creek
$475,959
$490,740
Fountain Hills
$525,427
$527,217
Scottsdale
$660,677
$683,200
Carefree
$810,903
$857,812
Paradise Valley
$1,627,230
$1,820,556
Statistics gathered from ARMLS. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. (Single-Family Residences)
azEliteTeam.com Beth Rider 602.315.8749 BethRider@kw.com
15333 N. Pima Rd. Suite 130 Scottsdale, AZ 85260
Rider Team Sells New Homes Presented By Each office independently owned and operated.
BETH RIDER