The #1 Agent &
ORAN
FOR ORANGE TREE EQUESTRIAN MANOR WITH OVER 100 TRANSACTIONS!
Kelly McLain Realtor
602.625.4653
mclainjk@aol.com www.kellymclain.com
Current Mortgage Rates Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates. And here are their latest forecasts for the average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage during each quarter (Q1, Q2 …) in 2020. Freddie’s numbers came out on Monday and the MBA’s figures were also published in April. Fannie’s were released in March: Forecaster Fannie Mae Freddie Mac MBA
Q1 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
Q2 3.3% 3.3% 3.6%
Q3 3.2 3.2% 3.6%
Q4 3.2% 3.2% 3.5%
Mike Tompkins Sales Manager
Interestingly, in its April 23rd forecast, the MBA showed Mortgage Loan higher rates than in its March publication. If you’re waiting for even cheaper mortgages, you might see that Originator as a red flag. However, note Freddie’s more optimistic April 15 numbers, which mirror Fannie’s March ones. Still, all forecasts show lower rates this year than last, when that particular one averaged 3.9%, according to Freddie Mac. Negative mortgage rates Just don’t expect zero or negative mortgage rates in America anytime soon. Still, they’re not unthinkable later this year or next, especially if the effects of COVID-19 force the Fed to make its rates negative. But we’ve a long way to go before that becomes a realistic prospect.
602.329.6591 Direct NMLS # 217645 tompkins@ksstatebank.com| www.ksstatebank.com
7373 Scottsdale Road, Scottsdale, AZ 85253 | 480.308.0395
Amidst all the chaos, there lies a gift, the gift of time. While fear and anxiety has affected some people as we fight the new monster on the block, COVID – 19, the gift of time is on our side. To my readers 65 and older, I’m still volunteering my time (which I have much more of) if you need me to pick up prescriptions, groceries, dry cleaning, post office, whatever you need please call me, I’m here to help anyone who needs to stay home. Orange Tree has seen a dramatic drop of inventory, as has the entire Valley, we’ve seen a 27% drop, while the Valley average is 23% Lock downs and travel restrictions across the country are causing buyers who need to relocate to Arizona, either for a job or to retire, to put those plans on hold for now. The effects of COVID-19 span the job market, stock market, corporate profits, and exchange rates. This has had the highest impact on high-end luxury market buyers. Not only are these buyers restricted from leaving their home cities at the moment, they have instability in their portfolios as well. Under these circumstances it should not come as a surprise to see that weekly contract activity over $500K has slowed down by 64% since their peak on February 24th while price points under $500K have only seen a 30-40% slow down. Sales volume depends on where both measures are in relation to “normal” levels, as determined by historical data that is seasonally adjusted for the time of year. When the Demand Index starts trending below normal, it’s an indicator that sales volume will start to fall, but whether or not the market shifts towards buyers depends on whether the Supply Index is higher or lower than Demand. ** Currently the Demand Index has fallen from 7.7% above normal to 4.6% below normal over the past 4 weeks. This is an indicator that sales volume over the next few weeks will be weaker. ** Prices will continue to rise and sales volume will start to show the effects of “stay-at-home” measures in the next few weeks. Not until Supply and Demand meet will we see prices stabilize and not until Supply is higher than Demand will we see prices decline. A lot can happen in the next 4 weeks, however. It’s still too early to be making apocalyptic projections for the Arizona housing market. Sale prices are not declining at the moment, but seller expectations are adjusting. Upticks in weekly price reductions tell us that sellers are beginning to ease up on pushing market value. Sellers are also beginning to realize that it will take longer to sell their home under these conditions. Weeks ago, some listings were receiving multiple offers within a matter of hours, but that’s not a reasonable expectation now. Active listings that would’ve flown off the market 4 weeks ago could be on the market for weeks, maybe even months at this rate. Information, communication and strategy will be important during the course of the pandemic response. It is situations like these where professional REALTORS® get Kelly McLain to show the value of their experience and service.
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MEMBER FDIC | EQUAL HOUSING LENDER
ADDRESS
SQFT
BED
BATH
LIST PRICE
PRICE PER SQFT
NEIGHBORHOOD
Latest ACTIVE & Pending LISTINGS around Orange Tree
Orange Tree Pool Service & Repairs Steve Sherman | 480-570-1117 RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE Annual Changes from April 23, 2019 to April 23, 2020
11008 N 60th St
6,823
4
3.5
$2,750,000
$403.05
6210 E Cholla St
3,828
5
4.5
$1,659,000
$433.39
Century Club Estates Equestrian Manor
5802 E Shea Blvd
4,867
5
4
$1,249,000
$256.63
Century Club Estates
11419 N St Andrews Way
4,459
5
3.5
$1,195,000
$268.00
Century Club Estates
11409 N St Andrews Way
3,544
4
3.5
$1,095,000
$308.87
Century Club Estates
5419 E Sahuaro Dr
3,804
5
4
$1,025,000
$269.45
Orange Tree Estates
5321 E Sahuaro Dr
3,550
5
3
$995,000
$280.28
La Camarilla Estates
5429 E Sahuaro Dr
2,830
5
3
$975,000
$344.52
Orange Tree Estates
10413 N 55th Pl
2,832
4
2.5
$879,000
$310.38
Promontory
6016 E Charter Oak Rd
3,298
4
3
$829,777
$251.60
Avant 1
6126 E Corrine Dr 12006 N 64th St 12201 N 58th Way 6235 E Charter Oak Rd
3,357
4
4
$750,000
$223.41
Avant 1
2,150
4
3
$699,000
$325.12
Shea North Estates
WANT YOUR PROPERTY TO BE OUR NEXT COVER HOME? 3,289
4
2
$660,000
$200.67
Avant
2,885
3
3
$645,000
$223.57
Shea North Estates
5937 E Aster Dr
Call 4 Phil 2.5 for the most$225.34 effective marketing $609,900 Avant 1 . 1 strategies to$619,900 sell your Biltmore propertyAvant 2,751 4 3 $263.44
11455 N 56th St
1,966
2
2
$489,000
$248.73
Century Place
11443 N 56th St
1,806
2
2.5
$389,900
$215.89
Century Place
12248 N 60th St
2,324
All information is deemedisreliable but notbutguaranteed. TheProperties properties list have been listed/sold variousofmembers All information deemed reliable not guaranteed. on on thisthis list have been listed/sold by variousbymembers the MLS. of the MLS.
If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing.
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