MPES 2009 Trayte

M E T R O

P H O E N I X

M I D -Y E A R U P D AT E

The Great Recession Where Do We Stand?

The Local Housing Market Who’s Buying? What’s Selling? Are You Missing Out? Metro Phoenix Declared A “Best City To Buy A Home”

R E S I D E N T I A L R E A L E S TAT E EXCELLENT NEWS IN HOUSING!

Sales are up, inventory is down, prices are stabilizing and buyers and sellers all across Metro Phoenix are taking notice. As Phoenix has been branded in the national media as one of the hardest-hit cities during this housing crash, it’s also the city that is gaining attention as one of the best opportunities to buy a home (see sidebar: Metro Phoenix – A Best City to Buy a Home).

G E N E R A L E CON O M I C S NA P S H OT RECESSION IS LOSING STEAM Here in the second half of 2009, there are many signs that the recession may be abating. The Kiplinger Letter reports, “The economic pluses outweigh the minuses. Consumers are now showing a willingness to spend, despite their high debt levels and rising foreclosure rates. Their long-term history suggests they’ll keep it up.

Confidence, rebounding smartly, will keep improving.”

In fact, more than 90% of economists predict that the recession will end this year. Nearly 74% of the forecasters expect the recession to end in the third quarter. Another 19% estimate the turning point in the fourth quarter of this year. This, according to a survey of leading forecasters by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE).

NABE forecasters also reported that they believe the economy will grow at a 0.7% pace in the third quarter and at a 1.8% pace in the fourth quarter.

While that growth may appear to be minute, compare that to a shrinkage at a 6.1% annualized pace in the first three months of 2009.

Manufacturing’s slump is slowing and businesses’ inventories are shrinking. Each suggests that dwindling supplies will soon need to be replenished.

The Commerce Department reports that construction spending is on the rise after falling for several straight months in a row.

“What looked like a flicker of light at the end of the tunnel is now starting to look like a beacon,” said Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research. “We are no longer in the deep throes of recession. A recovery may be just a few months away.”

CONTINUING CAUSES FOR CONCERN While positive signs begin emerging for our economy, there are still many factors at play to be aware of. And, while many forecasters are expecting a turn-around in our recession soon, they note that the road ahead is expected to be bumpy.

Unemployment rates continue to climb.

The country’s jobless rate, which rose to a 25-year high of 9.4% in May is expected to hit doubledigits by next year. Even as business begins to improve, wary employers will remain reluctant to hire. It is not unusual for unemployment rates to take longer to recover than the rest of the economy, as evidenced in prior recessions.

The stock market remains jumpy and unpredictable. US households have lost billions of dollars in the stock market in the last two years. The uncertainty of the market is another factor for worried investors.

Commercial real estate’s troubles are growing deeper. While the housing market is beginning to improve, the commercial sector is just now feeling a similar crunch and is expected to suffer for a number of years.

REASONS FOR OPTIMISM While spending is still down for households, the consumer savings rate is up. Americans’ personal savings rate soared to 5.7% in April, the highest in nearly 10 years. Savings calculated at $620.2 billion is the highest level on record dating back to January 1959. While consumers may continue to be thrifty, as optimism increases households will have money to spend again.

The biggest economic problems of the recession are behind us. The financial industry is beginning to recover. Some banks are raising capital and lending guidelines are beginning to loosen up, aiding the recovery of our “credit crunch.”

The auto industry is being revived. Important changes have been made and the landscape of the industry will be forever altered.

Perhaps surprisingly, the housing market is a bright spot in the mix. The source of much turmoil and economic instability, housing is beginning a slow climb to recovery. Many cite the housing market as the catalyst that began our economic distress and predict that it’ll be the housing market that leads the way out.

HAVE WE HIT BOTTOM YET? The bottom of a market isn’t visible while it’s at the bottom, only by looking back while the market is on the way up. Michael Orr of The Cromford Report, a well-respected information source on Valley real estate, called the bottom in early April. While it’s still too early to clearly see when the bottom occurred (if it has), signs are indicating that he may be correct.

The first quarter of the year saw steadily decreasing median home prices each month with April as the worst so far (see chart: January-

National Economic Forecasts Interest Rates Prime at 3.25%; 10-year T-notes volatile, ending year down a bit

4,742

Housing Sales Up a bit in the second half of 2009 Retail Sales Second half better than the first Trade Deficit Falling to $497 billion in 2009 Source: kiplingerbiz.com

BANK-OWNED AND DISTRESSED PROPERTIES Most of what is fueling the high sales figures in Metro Phoenix are the foreclosures and short sales. Additionally, the majority of homes being purchased are under the $250,000 price point. Again, opportunists are seeing excellent value and are clearing these properties out of the inventory.

Although there is a speculation of a coming “wave of foreclosures” in the second half of the year, it appears that the strong demand for these properties will alleviate any potential problems associated with the influx of new listings.

Residential Home Sales

January - June 2009 Sales Statistics

Metropolitan Phoenix

Single-Family Homes / Metro Phoenix

5,476

7,628

8,552

9,290

9,348

Jan. 09 Feb. 09 Mar. 09 Apr. 09 May 09 Jun. 09 Source: ARMLS. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Inflation Up about 1.5% this year Unemployment Peaking above 10% in early 2010

SELLERS HOLD THE UPPER HAND AGAIN If you can believe it, Metro Phoenix as a whole is officially now a seller’s market. A normal market is defined as a market with a six-month supply of homes. It’s a healthy, “normal” supply vs. demand ratio. When the supply exceeds demand, as we’ve seen over the last couple of years, the absorption rates drop and the month’s supply of homes rises higher than six months – bringing us a “buyer’s market.”

When demand outweighs supply, as in a “seller’s market”, we’ll see months of supply fewer than six.

Broken down into smaller sections, parts of Metro Phoenix have as low as a two-month supply while other segments are above the six-month mark. The luxury market is still a buyer’s market, but has been rapidly making great strides towards a more balanced market.

(See chart: Month’s Supply in Housing Inventory.)

It’s important to note that the Metro Phoenix housing market is made up of a myriad of micro-markets. Statistics gleaned from Valley wide sales figures aren’t necessarily indicative of what’s occurring in one’s specific neighborhood. Your Realtor is your best source for localized real estate statistics specific to where you live.

GDP Flattening, then up by year-end

BUYERS ARE BUYING AND HOMES ARE SELLING At the height of the housing frenzy 10,252 homes were sold in June of 2005, making it the highest number of sales in our market’s history. After languishing at the 3,000 – 4,000 range in late 2007 and early 2008, the number of escrows is once again pushing towards that record set in 2005 (see chart: Top Ten Months for Residential Sales).

Homes are selling; many with scores of offers and bidding wars to boot.

First-time homebuyers taking advantage of the up to $8,000 tax credit, investors, and savvy purchasers are finding the opportunity today too great to pass up. With record-low interest rates, affordable prices and an abundance of properties to choose from, many find now an excellent time to buy.

June 2009 Sales Statistics) followed by a steady rise in prices. Coupled with rising numbers of closed transactions and pending sales in the months to follow, the argument seems to lean in Michael Orr’s favor.

Top Ten Months for Residential Sales

Median Home Price

Avg. Days on Market

$130,000 $127,900 $120,000 $118,000 $121,500 $130,000

112 121 125 120 117 113

January February March April May June

Source: ARMLS. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Metropolitan Phoenix

Rank Month Sales 1................... June 2005.............10,252 2................... Aug. 2005..............10,031 3................... June 2004.............10,019 4................... March 2005.............9,987 5................... May 2005................9,890 6................... April 2005...............9,600 7................... July 2005.................9,394 8................ June 2009...........9,348 9................ May 2009............9,290 10................. Sept. 2005...............9,213

Statistics gathered from ARMLS. Special thanks to Fletcher Wilcox, GCTA

Month’s Supply in Housing Inventory 2009

Metro Phoenix Overall Phoenix West Valley NE Valley SE Valley Scottsdale $1 Million + Scottsdale $1 Million - Paradise Valley

Jan. 9.25 7.25 8.25 21.75 8.25 60.0 15.5 28.0

Feb. 6.75 5.25 6.0 17.5 6.25 44.0 12.25 37.5

Mar. 5.25 4.0 4.25 16.0 4.75 39.25 11.25 82.5

Apr. 3.5 2.5 2.5 11.5 3.0 30.0 7.5 34.5

Source: Calculated from closed sales and active listings reported in ARMLS.

May Jun. 2.75 2.75 2.25 2.25 2.0 2.0 8.0 7.25 2.25 2.5 24.25 21.5 5.25 4.75 22.0 19.25

Metro Phoenix -

A BEST CITY TO BUY A HOME A recent Forbes.com article cited that Phoenix was one of the best cities to buy a home. “While the majority of the nation’s housing markets are still working toward a bottom, some cities are boasting fundamentals that make them good places to buy a home now.” In addition to Phoenix, the article also cited Los Angeles, Denver, Boston and San Diego.

How did Forbes.com determine that Phoenix was a best place to buy now? The article says, “First, we examined the number of ZIP codes with 25% of the area’s sales to determine those in which activity is most evenly distributed. Next, we examined increase and decrease in price per square footage to determine where market value is the highest. Last, we looked at transaction rates in each city to determine where the housing markets are most active. We scored each city by category, and then combined the scores to determine the final ranking.”

R E S I D E N T I A L R E A L E S TAT E EXCELLENT NEWS IN HOUSING!

Sales are up, inventory is down, prices are stabilizing and buyers and sellers all across Metro Phoenix are taking notice. As Phoenix has been branded in the national media as one of the hardest-hit cities during this housing crash, it’s also the city that is gaining attention as one of the best opportunities to buy a home (see sidebar: Metro Phoenix – A Best City to Buy a Home).

G E N E R A L E CON O M I C S NA P S H OT RECESSION IS LOSING STEAM Here in the second half of 2009, there are many signs that the recession may be abating. The Kiplinger Letter reports, “The economic pluses outweigh the minuses. Consumers are now showing a willingness to spend, despite their high debt levels and rising foreclosure rates. Their long-term history suggests they’ll keep it up.

Confidence, rebounding smartly, will keep improving.”

In fact, more than 90% of economists predict that the recession will end this year. Nearly 74% of the forecasters expect the recession to end in the third quarter. Another 19% estimate the turning point in the fourth quarter of this year. This, according to a survey of leading forecasters by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE).

NABE forecasters also reported that they believe the economy will grow at a 0.7% pace in the third quarter and at a 1.8% pace in the fourth quarter.

While that growth may appear to be minute, compare that to a shrinkage at a 6.1% annualized pace in the first three months of 2009.

Manufacturing’s slump is slowing and businesses’ inventories are shrinking. Each suggests that dwindling supplies will soon need to be replenished.

The Commerce Department reports that construction spending is on the rise after falling for several straight months in a row.

“What looked like a flicker of light at the end of the tunnel is now starting to look like a beacon,” said Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research. “We are no longer in the deep throes of recession. A recovery may be just a few months away.”

CONTINUING CAUSES FOR CONCERN While positive signs begin emerging for our economy, there are still many factors at play to be aware of. And, while many forecasters are expecting a turn-around in our recession soon, they note that the road ahead is expected to be bumpy.

Unemployment rates continue to climb.

The country’s jobless rate, which rose to a 25-year high of 9.4% in May is expected to hit doubledigits by next year. Even as business begins to improve, wary employers will remain reluctant to hire. It is not unusual for unemployment rates to take longer to recover than the rest of the economy, as evidenced in prior recessions.

The stock market remains jumpy and unpredictable. US households have lost billions of dollars in the stock market in the last two years. The uncertainty of the market is another factor for worried investors.

Commercial real estate’s troubles are growing deeper. While the housing market is beginning to improve, the commercial sector is just now feeling a similar crunch and is expected to suffer for a number of years.

REASONS FOR OPTIMISM While spending is still down for households, the consumer savings rate is up. Americans’ personal savings rate soared to 5.7% in April, the highest in nearly 10 years. Savings calculated at $620.2 billion is the highest level on record dating back to January 1959. While consumers may continue to be thrifty, as optimism increases households will have money to spend again.

The biggest economic problems of the recession are behind us. The financial industry is beginning to recover. Some banks are raising capital and lending guidelines are beginning to loosen up, aiding the recovery of our “credit crunch.”

The auto industry is being revived. Important changes have been made and the landscape of the industry will be forever altered.

Perhaps surprisingly, the housing market is a bright spot in the mix. The source of much turmoil and economic instability, housing is beginning a slow climb to recovery. Many cite the housing market as the catalyst that began our economic distress and predict that it’ll be the housing market that leads the way out.

HAVE WE HIT BOTTOM YET? The bottom of a market isn’t visible while it’s at the bottom, only by looking back while the market is on the way up. Michael Orr of The Cromford Report, a well-respected information source on Valley real estate, called the bottom in early April. While it’s still too early to clearly see when the bottom occurred (if it has), signs are indicating that he may be correct.

The first quarter of the year saw steadily decreasing median home prices each month with April as the worst so far (see chart: January-

National Economic Forecasts Interest Rates Prime at 3.25%; 10-year T-notes volatile, ending year down a bit

4,742

Housing Sales Up a bit in the second half of 2009 Retail Sales Second half better than the first Trade Deficit Falling to $497 billion in 2009 Source: kiplingerbiz.com

BANK-OWNED AND DISTRESSED PROPERTIES Most of what is fueling the high sales figures in Metro Phoenix are the foreclosures and short sales. Additionally, the majority of homes being purchased are under the $250,000 price point. Again, opportunists are seeing excellent value and are clearing these properties out of the inventory.

Although there is a speculation of a coming “wave of foreclosures” in the second half of the year, it appears that the strong demand for these properties will alleviate any potential problems associated with the influx of new listings.

Residential Home Sales

January - June 2009 Sales Statistics

Metropolitan Phoenix

Single-Family Homes / Metro Phoenix

5,476

7,628

8,552

9,290

9,348

Jan. 09 Feb. 09 Mar. 09 Apr. 09 May 09 Jun. 09 Source: ARMLS. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Inflation Up about 1.5% this year Unemployment Peaking above 10% in early 2010

SELLERS HOLD THE UPPER HAND AGAIN If you can believe it, Metro Phoenix as a whole is officially now a seller’s market. A normal market is defined as a market with a six-month supply of homes. It’s a healthy, “normal” supply vs. demand ratio. When the supply exceeds demand, as we’ve seen over the last couple of years, the absorption rates drop and the month’s supply of homes rises higher than six months – bringing us a “buyer’s market.”

When demand outweighs supply, as in a “seller’s market”, we’ll see months of supply fewer than six.

Broken down into smaller sections, parts of Metro Phoenix have as low as a two-month supply while other segments are above the six-month mark. The luxury market is still a buyer’s market, but has been rapidly making great strides towards a more balanced market.

(See chart: Month’s Supply in Housing Inventory.)

It’s important to note that the Metro Phoenix housing market is made up of a myriad of micro-markets. Statistics gleaned from Valley wide sales figures aren’t necessarily indicative of what’s occurring in one’s specific neighborhood. Your Realtor is your best source for localized real estate statistics specific to where you live.

GDP Flattening, then up by year-end

BUYERS ARE BUYING AND HOMES ARE SELLING At the height of the housing frenzy 10,252 homes were sold in June of 2005, making it the highest number of sales in our market’s history. After languishing at the 3,000 – 4,000 range in late 2007 and early 2008, the number of escrows is once again pushing towards that record set in 2005 (see chart: Top Ten Months for Residential Sales).

Homes are selling; many with scores of offers and bidding wars to boot.

First-time homebuyers taking advantage of the up to $8,000 tax credit, investors, and savvy purchasers are finding the opportunity today too great to pass up. With record-low interest rates, affordable prices and an abundance of properties to choose from, many find now an excellent time to buy.

June 2009 Sales Statistics) followed by a steady rise in prices. Coupled with rising numbers of closed transactions and pending sales in the months to follow, the argument seems to lean in Michael Orr’s favor.

Top Ten Months for Residential Sales

Median Home Price

Avg. Days on Market

$130,000 $127,900 $120,000 $118,000 $121,500 $130,000

112 121 125 120 117 113

January February March April May June

Source: ARMLS. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Metropolitan Phoenix

Rank Month Sales 1................... June 2005.............10,252 2................... Aug. 2005..............10,031 3................... June 2004.............10,019 4................... March 2005.............9,987 5................... May 2005................9,890 6................... April 2005...............9,600 7................... July 2005.................9,394 8................ June 2009...........9,348 9................ May 2009............9,290 10................. Sept. 2005...............9,213

Statistics gathered from ARMLS. Special thanks to Fletcher Wilcox, GCTA

Month’s Supply in Housing Inventory 2009

Metro Phoenix Overall Phoenix West Valley NE Valley SE Valley Scottsdale $1 Million + Scottsdale $1 Million - Paradise Valley

Jan. 9.25 7.25 8.25 21.75 8.25 60.0 15.5 28.0

Feb. 6.75 5.25 6.0 17.5 6.25 44.0 12.25 37.5

Mar. 5.25 4.0 4.25 16.0 4.75 39.25 11.25 82.5

Apr. 3.5 2.5 2.5 11.5 3.0 30.0 7.5 34.5

Source: Calculated from closed sales and active listings reported in ARMLS.

May Jun. 2.75 2.75 2.25 2.25 2.0 2.0 8.0 7.25 2.25 2.5 24.25 21.5 5.25 4.75 22.0 19.25

Metro Phoenix -

A BEST CITY TO BUY A HOME A recent Forbes.com article cited that Phoenix was one of the best cities to buy a home. “While the majority of the nation’s housing markets are still working toward a bottom, some cities are boasting fundamentals that make them good places to buy a home now.” In addition to Phoenix, the article also cited Los Angeles, Denver, Boston and San Diego.

How did Forbes.com determine that Phoenix was a best place to buy now? The article says, “First, we examined the number of ZIP codes with 25% of the area’s sales to determine those in which activity is most evenly distributed. Next, we examined increase and decrease in price per square footage to determine where market value is the highest. Last, we looked at transaction rates in each city to determine where the housing markets are most active. We scored each city by category, and then combined the scores to determine the final ranking.”

Call Me Today!

M E T R O

P H O E N I X

Do you know anyone who might benefit from the many advantages available for FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS (simply defined as someone who hasn’t owned a home for the past three years) in today’s exceptional market?

Don’t Miss Out!

• There are some mortgage programs available that require lower down payments and no mortgage insurance.

• First time buyers can get up to an $8,000 “gift” in the form of a tax credit from the Feds if a home purchase closes by Dec. of 2009.

• Median home prices are the lowest they’ve been

2009 January - June Average Sales Price By City Glendale: $126,024 Phoenix: $116,750 Mesa: $159,694 Peoria: $190,949 Litchfield Park: $207,062 Gilbert: $226,160 Tempe: $222,620

in a decade!

Cave Creek: $365,692

• The inventory of homes is at a high level allowing

Fountain Hills: $517,820

a buyer many and varied choices.

Scottsdale: $567,147

• A mortgage for a single family home can be less

Carefree: $720,204 Paradise Valley: $1,695,616

than rent!

Conditions are perfect for these buyers, but may not be that way for long. Take advantage of what this market has to offer and CALL ME TODAY. Also, please check out my website, www.LynTrayte.com, to search listings and for great tips and features for First Time Buyers.

LYN TRAYTE

Associate Broker, GRI, ABR, e-Pro

Your Realtor For Life

23733 N. Scottsdale Rd. Suite 200 Scottsdale, AZ. 85255 Mobile 602-739-0095 Fax 480-624-5959 www.LynTrayte.com lyn.trayte@sothebysrealty.com

M I D -Y E A R U P D AT E

Chandler: $237,766

Statistics gathered from ARMLS. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

(Single-Family Residences)

2009 January - June Sales Statistics By Community Community

Average Sales Price

Days On Market

List/Sell Price Ratio

# Closed

Ancala.........................................$1,032,083.................. 332...................88%...........................12 Bellasera.........................................$556,666.................. 217...................94%............................3 Boulders.......................................$1,410,000.................. 253...................75%............................5 DC Ranch...................................$1,176,515.................. 198...................91%...........................53 Desert Highlands........................$1,471,666 ................ 186...................90%............................9 Desert Mountain.........................$1,969,599.................. 220...................87%...........................30 Eagle Mountain.............................$648,217.................. 139...................90%...........................10 Estancia.......................................$1,964,142 ................ 354...................76%............................7 FireRock.......................................$1,423,195 ................ 335...................87%...........................20 Gainey Ranch............................$1,165,571.................. 246...................87%............................7 Grayhawk......................................$688,531.................. 134...................94%...........................45 Hidden Hills.....................................$444,233.................. 144...................94%............................6 Ironwood Village...........................$352,795.................. 168...................95%...........................21 Legend Trail....................................$464,491.................. 110...................94%...........................10 McCormick Ranch........................$491,249.................. 147...................93%...........................11 McDowell Mountain Ranch.........$534,114.................. 143...................94%...........................78 Mirabel........................................$1,254,135.................. 369...................89%...........................11 Scottsdale Mountain....................$686,515.................. 169...................92%...........................18 Scottsdale Ranch..........................$639,343.................. 156...................93%...........................22 Sincuidados...................................$867,500.................. 201...................93%............................4 Silverleaf......................................$2,860,043.................. 397...................86%...........................14 Stonegate......................................$545,492.................. 209...................95%...........................14 Terravita..........................................$532,111.................. 147...................91%...........................31 Troon North.....................................$796,563.................. 246...................89%...........................30 Troon Village..................................$778,386.................. 323...................95%...........................12 Whisper Rock..............................$1,970,000.................. 379...................87%............................3 Winfield...........................................$645,000.................. 238...................91%............................3 Statistics gathered from ARMLS. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

(Single-Family Residences)

If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing.

Produced by Desert Lifestyle Publishing • 480.460.0996

The Great Recession Where Do We Stand?

The Local Housing Market Who’s Buying? What’s Selling? Are You Missing Out? Metro Phoenix Declared A “Best City To Buy A Home”