Metro Phoenix Economic Snapshot presented by The Peggy Rauch Group

M E T R O

P H O E N I X

85026 PERMIT 1441

Peggy Rauch 602.206.3336

Peggy@PeggyRauch.com

Michael Meinerz 602.882.0075

Michael@PeggyRauch.com 7297 N. Scottsdale Rd. #1003 Scottsdale, AZ 85253

For the past 25 years, The Peggy Rauch Group has provided the knowledge and market experience to achieve successful results for our clients’ transactions for lots, land, commercial property, custom homes, golf course properties, waterfront luxury homes and investment real estate.

We are dedicated to working with our clients’ best interests in mind. We listen well, provide knowledgeable market experience and data, and then work tirelessly to achieve your real estate goals -- always working for YOU! For most people, purchasing property is among the most crucial investments they ever make. We pay close attention to the details, listen carefully and consult knowledgeably to make certain you are successful in achieving your real estate goals, whether in investment property, waterfront properties, golf course property, custom homes, commercial building space or land.

Extremely active on local real estate boards and associations, as well as all area residential and commercial tours, we stay on top of the Valley’s ever-changing market -- day in and day out -- making certain we provide the resource for you to explore your options and make the most informed decisions.

Our extensive networking capabilities bring together a strong team of professionals with expertise in financing, relocation, inspection, escrow and other real estate services to ensure your transaction is handled in the most competent and hassle-free manner.

And, like all good service organizations, we’re not done when the transaction closes. From schools and daycares to recreational activities and churches to zoning and permitting, we will always be there for you. As your personal consultants, we believe real estate is about more than just buying and selling property. We are here to help you manage your real estate investment.

Dedication, knowledge and hard work have allowed The Peggy Rauch Group to provide exceptional service and satisfaction to our clients for the past 25 years. If you appreciate the importance and value of experience and knowledge in achieving your real estate goals, please contact us today.

We welcome the opportunity to work with you.

www.ThePeggyRauchGroup.com If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing.

Produced by Desert Lifestyle Publishing • 480.460.0996 • www.DesertLifestyle.net

The Real Estate Market What’s Expected in 2011?

Unemployment Consumer Spending GDP Growth A Review of the Economy in the New Year

Mortgage Interest Rates

A Look Back at the Good, the Bad and the Ugly

E’VE BEEN DOUBLE-DIPPED

2010 Sales Statistics

etro Phoenix home prices bottomed out in April of 2009 with a median sales price of $115,000 – this after a peak of $265,000 timeI of 2009, home prices R E during S I DtheEboom NT AJune L 2006.

R EAfter A April L E S TAT Ebegan scooting back up and the median hovered at $130,000 un t summer when the federal homebuyer tax credit expired. By December of 2010, the median home price fell to a new low of $110,000, creating a dreaded “double-dip” in a fragile market that

NUMBER OF housing MEDIAN s been precariously attempting to rebound. (The median figures reported are for all types of housing sold,We’ve including condominiums, patio homes and townhomes. median values for SALES single-family Been Double-Dipped The SOLD LISTINGS PRICE Metro Phoenix home prices bottomed out home in April ofprice 2009 with operties are higher when calculated separately.) The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service’s data forecasts the Valley’s median toa median climbsales back up to January $115,000 in January.

While$123,000 2010’s hom 5,667 price of $115,000 – this after a peak of $265,000 during the boom time of June February 6,422 $125,000 es pattern can be described as “one step forward and two steps back,” the prediction for 2011 is improving “two forward and oneback step back.”

2006.to After April steps 2009, home prices began scooting up and the median March 8,805 $128,700 hovered at $130,000 until last summer when the federal homebuyer tax credit April 9,136 $128,275 ind expired.

By December of 2010, the median home price fell to a new low of hile price declines are painful, the good news is that demand has remained strong through 2010 (see chart: 2010 Sales Statistics). The cure for low prices is low prices. Indeed, the home affordability $110,000, creating a dreaded “double-dip” in a fragile housing market that has May 8,924 $130,000 ll help to bring in more and more buyers and move out the excess inventory. been precariously attempting to rebound. (The median figures reported are for June 9,158 $127,630

all types of housing sold, including condominiums, patio homes and townhomes.

July 6,913 $125,000 Information Market says, “The new loans coming into the pool have made it medianfurther values for single-family properties higher when to calculated

hat does this mean for the future of our housing market? Pricing is expected to slide a bit further this year.TheAny price decline isareexpected be modest though, as the heart-stopping drops of rece August 7,000 $119,287 through strict underwriting protocol while the bad loans just keep getting sent to separately.) The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service’s data forecasts the ars past are behind us now. Despite the drop in pricing, the strong volume of sales in 2010 shows us whatValley’s our median market should do in the future.

Pricing is a lagging indicator, but the supply and demand levels generally indicate what prices will do.

So with con September 6,715 $119,900 home price to climb back up to $115,000 in January. While 2010’s the courthouse steps, and once they’re foreclosed, they’re no longer delinquent.

October 6,556 $120,000 Good in, bad out.” home-sales pattern can be described as “one step forward and two steps back,” ued demand in 2011, any mild price decreases we experience should then begin to rise from there. the prediction for 2011 is improving to “two steps forward and one step back.”

November 6,740 $115,000 While price declines are painful, the good news is that demand has remained December 8,405 $110,000 We must remember that price declines do not forecast a bad market ahead, they are an indicator of a bad market in the But theseTheprice stimulate demand isrecord a necessary part the Fixedrecovery process,” reports The Cromford Report, Mortgage interest rateswhich plunged to lows in 2010 (see table:of30-Year strong through 2010 recent (see chart: past.

2010 Sales Statistics). cure fordeclines low prices is low

Total: 90,441 Average: $123,900 Rate Mortgages Annual Average), with a 30-year fixed-rate low of 4.16%.

But with prices. Indeed, the home affordability index will help to bring in more and more ocal real estate research firm.

Source: ARMLS the economy showing signs of life, rates have begun rising in early 2011 to nearly buyers and move out the excess inventory.

5%. By the time the housing market recovery is under way later this year and What does this mean for the future of our housing market? Pricing is STRESSED PROPERTIES EASING UP into 2012, we can expect to see rates continue their upward trend. Lawrence Yun, expected to slide a bit further this year. Any further price decline is expected to National Association of Realtors chief economist forecasts rates to average over be modest though, as the heart-stopping drops of recent years past are behind us — John Lennon & Paul McCartney, Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band in 2011 and 5.8% in 2012 – a nearly 2% increase from last year’s low. now.

Despite the drop in pricing, the strong volume of sales in 2010 shows us what hile still at elevated levels and putting pressure on home values, the amount of foreclosures within our local market is expected to drop, though perhaps not in5%the first few months of 2011 while banks work through the backlog created last year with their tw For potential homebuyers wrestling with the decision on the best time to buy, our market should do in the future. Pricing is a lagging indicator, but the supply onth moratorium ontheforeclosures.

YEAR RATE YEAR RATE it appears to be NOW. For even if home prices experience another 5% to 10% and demand levels generally indicate what prices will do. So with continued the rate of spending during the 2010 holiday season was the highest As we’ve turned corner on a New Year, most of us have our demand in 2011, any mild price decreases we experience should then begin to rise decline, the cost-of-money to borrow at higher rates the longer you wait may just 1972 7.38 % 1992 8.39 % since 2005 – that banner year for the economy. sights set on the economy. Just what can we expect in 2011? offset any monthly savings you might see. For every point that interest rates go up there.in pre-foreclosures from 97,141 in 2009 to 79,637 1973 in December 8.04 % 1993 is the7.31 % With consumer spending elevated, manufacturing will seeCounty). an Continued recession?

A robust perhaps something

reclosure activity peaked inrecovery?

2010 Or, (see Chart: Monthly Foreclosure Activity in Maricopa But thefrom drop in 2010 is a positive sign. In fact, the total of 5,475 notices 2010 lowest lev on an 80% loan, the effective price of the home goes up about 10% due to what the “We must remember that price declines do not forecast a bad market ahead, 1974 9.19 % 1994 8.38 % uptick as retailers will need to restock shelves. Business spending in the middle. Indications seem to point to a better economic ce March of 2008.

While we still have several more years of distressed property inventory to eat up (it’s estimated that 22.5%-38.9% of homeowners are underwater on their mortgage), the homes purchased today are subject to much more rigorous lending difference in payments would amortize.

1975 9.05 % 1995 7.93 % they are an indicator of a bad market in the recent past. But these price declines is expected to further increase in 2011 and into 2012 as well. environment for 2011. Indeed, the economy is improving; albeit the For sellers, put your home getting on the market untilto prices risecourthouse may 8.87they’re % 1996 7.81they’re % stimulate demand which is a necessary of the recovery process, ” reports while

ndards. more As Tom Ruff, anus analyst with for Information says, new loans gains coming the pool have made it through strict part underwriting protocol bad waiting loanstojust keep sent the steps,1976 and once foreclosed, n The stock market“The made some encouraging in 2010.into

slowly than most of Americans anxious progress would Market also offset any gain you’d have. Your pool of potential buyers will be different.

1977 8.85 % 1997 7.60 % The Cromford Report, a local real estate research firm.

The DJIA closed out the year with a respectable 11% growth.

prefer.

Overall, 2010 was better than 2009.

2011 is expected to

nger delinquent. Good in, bad out.”

1978 9.64 % 1998 6.94 % Many won’t qualify at the higher rates when they would have qualified today.

Kiplinger.com forecasts the Dow to rise another 1000 points to be better than 2010. And 2012 even better yet, than this year.

1979 11.20 % 1999 7.44 % Additionally, If you’ll be repurchasing then you’ll too be financing at the higher top 12,500 in 2011 with the rally likely to continue into 2012.

The good news is that further economic declines are not expected 1980 13.74 % 2000 8.05 % rates we will have.

While still at elevated levels and putting pressure on home values, the amount of Certainly our humble recovery hasn’t indicated that all of this year. The bad news is that our recovery appears to be weak 1981 16.63 % 2001 6.97 % foreclosures within our local market is expected to drop, though perhaps not in the our troubles are behind us. The two major snags to a robust and protracted.

HE INTEREST RATE DANCE 1982 16.04 % 2002 6.54 % first few months of 2011 while banks work through the backlog created last year recovery continue to be the nation’s weak housing market and Making headlines in the mid-to-latter part of 2010, the 1983 13.24 % 2003 5.83 %

Whether it’s a clearance sale on a high-quality pair of shoes, or an investor with their two-month moratorium on foreclosures. disappointing unemployment. Employers added over 1 million announcement that “THE RECESSION IS OVER” had been met 1984 13.88 % 2004 “buying low to sell high, ” savvy shoppers know to capitalize on an opportunity to

Foreclosure activity peaked in 2010 (see chart: Monthly Foreclosure Activity in ortgage interest rates to record lows in 2010 workers (see table: Fixed Rate Mortgages Annual Average), with a 30-year fixed-rate low of 4.16%. But with the economy showing signs of life, rates have begun rising in early 2011 to nearly 5.84 5%.% By the to payrolls30-Year in 2010 according to figures from the Labor with scoffs and sneers.plunged “If that’s the case, it sure hasn’t been feeling 1985 12.43 % 2005 5.87 % buy a valued item at a huge discount. And while Arizona real estate is priced very Maricopa County).

But the drop in pre-foreclosures from 97,141 in 2009 to 79,637 Department.

But the gains2012, haven’t been to significantly like it,” many groaned. While economists what exactly me the housing market recovery is disagree underonway later this year and into weenough can expect to see rates continue their upward trend. Lawrence Yun, National Association of Realtors chief economist forecasts rates to average 5% and 5.8% in 2012 1986 over 10.19 % in 20112006 6.41 % low right now, the most important factor indicative of a good investment is the in 2010 is a positive sign. In fact, the total of 5,475 notices in December 2010 is reduce unemployment.

While forecasters expect employers to

defines a recession, we all know it’s when the economy fails to

1987 10.21 % 2007 6.34 % nearly 2% increase from last year’s low. potential value and worth. If you subscribe to the belief that Arizona is a highly the lowest level since March of 2008. While we still have several more years of add another 2.5 million workers this year, it’ll be several years grow, or contracts.

1988 10.34 % 2008 6.03 % desirable destination and will be in much demand in the decades to come, than distressed property inventory to eat up (it’s estimated that 22.5%-38.9% of before all of the 8.4 million jobs that have been lost will be While final numbers for the fourth quarter aren’t in yet, 1989 10.32 % 2009 5.04 % buying property in today’s market may be the wisest move you can make for your homeowners are underwater on their mortgage), the homes purchased today are r potential homebuyers wrestling therate decision on the best time to buy, it appears to be NOW. For even if home prices experience another 5% to 10% decline, the cost-of-money to borrow at higher rates the longer you wait may just offset any monthly recaptured. indications are that 2010 will have finishedwith with a 2%+ of 1990 10.13 % 2010 4.69 % future wealth portfolio. subject to much more rigorous lending standards. As Tom Ruff, an analyst with growth.

Generally recoveries from recessions have been closer to 1991 9.25 % Source: Freddie Mac vings you might see. For every point that interest rates go up on an 80% loan, the effective price of the home goes up about 10% due to what the difference in payments would amortize. the 4% or 5% range in GDP growth, but this modest 2% growth is growth nonetheless. A clear signal that the recession truly is over.

Arizona, and the Metro Phoenix market specifically, have been r sellers, The waiting to put your home on thetomarket prices maymarkets alsoinoffset any gain you’d have. Your pool of potential buyers will be different. Many won’t qualify at the higher rates when they would have qualified today. Additionally, If you’ll nation’s Gross Domestic Product was expected grow at until hit worse thanrise most other the US. Our housing market Source: Information Market be Source: Freddie Mac a rate of 2.0% to 2.5% over the next two years.

Now, with the

has fallen harder, population growth has spiraled to historic lows, purchasing then you’ll too be financing at the higher rates we will have. extension of the tax cuts that passed at the end of 2010, and in 2009 Arizona (generally always in the top five growth states) Source: Information Market MONTH RESIDENTIAL NOTICE RESIDENTIAL MONTH RESIDENTIAL NOTICE RESIDENTIAL forecasters are predicting heightened growth. Mark Zandi, sank to 49th out of 50 states when measuring employment growth.

RIZONAa well-known ON SALE

OF TRUSTEES SALE FORECLOSED

OF TRUSTEES SALE FORECLOSED economic forecaster with Moody’s Analytics, expects However bleak our decline, Arizona is regaining ground. By the a 3.9% rate of growth in 2011; a substantial, much-needed boost to end of 2010, Arizona had added jobs for four months in a row, December 5,475 3,283 December 7,405 4,792 help propel us back to pre-recession days. dropping unemployment from 9.5% to 9.4%, while the nation as a hether it’s a clearance sale on a high-quality pair of shoes, or an investor “buying low to sell high,” savvy shoppers know to capitalize on an opportunity to buy a valued item at a huge discount.

And while Arizona real estate is priced very low right now, the November 5,607 2,509 November 6,679 3,485 whole rose from 9.6% to 9.8% in that same time period. The state October 6,728 4,034 October 7,303 4,444 ost important factor indicative of a good investment isis expected the potential andandworth. youthatsubscribe to the belief that Arizona is a highly desirable destination and will be in much demand in the decades to come, than buying property in today’s market may to add 48,000value jobs in 2011 recent dataIfshows

September 7,116 4,877 September 7,408 3,432 Arizona has become the number-one fastest-growing market for As move the economy accelerated into 2011, national claims for jobless the wisest you can make for your future wealth portfolio. private sector jobs. Metropolitan Phoenix is now ranked second benefits dropped at the end of 2010 to the lowest level in two years.

August 7,186 4,831 August 8,624 3,546 in highest job growth among large cities, only lagging behind The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. reported its July 7,804 4,651 July 8,671 4,711 Washington, D.C. business barometer ended 2010 at 68.6 (a figure greater than 50 June 5,833 4,584 June 8,138 4,688 “2011 is going to be the best year for Arizona’s economic growth on the barometer signifies an expansion), which is the highest level May 6,106 3,841 May 8,126 3,472 in the past three years,” stated ASU economist Lee McPheters at the in over two decades.

April 6,634 4,115 April 8,552 3,787 47th annual forecast luncheon sponsored by ASU and JP Morgan After more than three years of “forced frugality” among March 7,625 5,127 March 10,077 3,023 Chase Bank. “I think it’s pretty clear we’re on the threshold of American consumers, it seems that shoppers are weary of February 7,179 3,891 February 8,000 4,780 recovery. Arizona is much stronger than it was a year ago,” he non-spending. Holiday 2010 purchasing rose a fantastic 5.5% January 6,344 4,065 January 8,158 3,832 continued. according to the MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse report.

Exceeding even the most optimistic retail spending forecasts, Total: 79,637 49,808 Total: 97,141 47,992

G E N E R A L E C O N O M I C S N A P S H OT

The Interest Rate Dance

I’ve got to admit it’s getting better. A little better all the time.

I have to admit it’s getting better. It’s getting better since you’ve been mine.

Getting so much better all the time.

30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages Annual Average

Distressed Properties Easing Up

Arizona On Sale

Arizona Outpacing The Nation?

2009

An Economy On The Mend

2010

Monthly Foreclosure Activity In Maricopa County

E’VE BEEN DOUBLE-DIPPED

2010 Sales Statistics

etro Phoenix home prices bottomed out in April of 2009 with a median sales price of $115,000 – this after a peak of $265,000 timeI of 2009, home prices R E during S I DtheEboom NT AJune L 2006.

R EAfter A April L E S TAT Ebegan scooting back up and the median hovered at $130,000 un t summer when the federal homebuyer tax credit expired. By December of 2010, the median home price fell to a new low of $110,000, creating a dreaded “double-dip” in a fragile market that

NUMBER OF housing MEDIAN s been precariously attempting to rebound. (The median figures reported are for all types of housing sold,We’ve including condominiums, patio homes and townhomes. median values for SALES single-family Been Double-Dipped The SOLD LISTINGS PRICE Metro Phoenix home prices bottomed out home in April ofprice 2009 with operties are higher when calculated separately.) The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service’s data forecasts the Valley’s median toa median climbsales back up to January $115,000 in January.

While$123,000 2010’s hom 5,667 price of $115,000 – this after a peak of $265,000 during the boom time of June February 6,422 $125,000 es pattern can be described as “one step forward and two steps back,” the prediction for 2011 is improving “two forward and oneback step back.”

2006.to After April steps 2009, home prices began scooting up and the median March 8,805 $128,700 hovered at $130,000 until last summer when the federal homebuyer tax credit April 9,136 $128,275 ind expired.

By December of 2010, the median home price fell to a new low of hile price declines are painful, the good news is that demand has remained strong through 2010 (see chart: 2010 Sales Statistics). The cure for low prices is low prices. Indeed, the home affordability $110,000, creating a dreaded “double-dip” in a fragile housing market that has May 8,924 $130,000 ll help to bring in more and more buyers and move out the excess inventory. been precariously attempting to rebound. (The median figures reported are for June 9,158 $127,630

all types of housing sold, including condominiums, patio homes and townhomes.

July 6,913 $125,000 Information Market says, “The new loans coming into the pool have made it medianfurther values for single-family properties higher when to calculated

hat does this mean for the future of our housing market? Pricing is expected to slide a bit further this year.TheAny price decline isareexpected be modest though, as the heart-stopping drops of rece August 7,000 $119,287 through strict underwriting protocol while the bad loans just keep getting sent to separately.) The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service’s data forecasts the ars past are behind us now. Despite the drop in pricing, the strong volume of sales in 2010 shows us whatValley’s our median market should do in the future.

Pricing is a lagging indicator, but the supply and demand levels generally indicate what prices will do.

So with con September 6,715 $119,900 home price to climb back up to $115,000 in January. While 2010’s the courthouse steps, and once they’re foreclosed, they’re no longer delinquent.

October 6,556 $120,000 Good in, bad out.” home-sales pattern can be described as “one step forward and two steps back,” ued demand in 2011, any mild price decreases we experience should then begin to rise from there. the prediction for 2011 is improving to “two steps forward and one step back.”

November 6,740 $115,000 While price declines are painful, the good news is that demand has remained December 8,405 $110,000 We must remember that price declines do not forecast a bad market ahead, they are an indicator of a bad market in the But theseTheprice stimulate demand isrecord a necessary part the Fixedrecovery process,” reports The Cromford Report, Mortgage interest rateswhich plunged to lows in 2010 (see table:of30-Year strong through 2010 recent (see chart: past.

2010 Sales Statistics). cure fordeclines low prices is low

Total: 90,441 Average: $123,900 Rate Mortgages Annual Average), with a 30-year fixed-rate low of 4.16%.

But with prices. Indeed, the home affordability index will help to bring in more and more ocal real estate research firm.

Source: ARMLS the economy showing signs of life, rates have begun rising in early 2011 to nearly buyers and move out the excess inventory.

5%. By the time the housing market recovery is under way later this year and What does this mean for the future of our housing market? Pricing is STRESSED PROPERTIES EASING UP into 2012, we can expect to see rates continue their upward trend. Lawrence Yun, expected to slide a bit further this year. Any further price decline is expected to National Association of Realtors chief economist forecasts rates to average over be modest though, as the heart-stopping drops of recent years past are behind us — John Lennon & Paul McCartney, Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band in 2011 and 5.8% in 2012 – a nearly 2% increase from last year’s low. now.

Despite the drop in pricing, the strong volume of sales in 2010 shows us what hile still at elevated levels and putting pressure on home values, the amount of foreclosures within our local market is expected to drop, though perhaps not in5%the first few months of 2011 while banks work through the backlog created last year with their tw For potential homebuyers wrestling with the decision on the best time to buy, our market should do in the future. Pricing is a lagging indicator, but the supply onth moratorium ontheforeclosures.

YEAR RATE YEAR RATE it appears to be NOW. For even if home prices experience another 5% to 10% and demand levels generally indicate what prices will do. So with continued the rate of spending during the 2010 holiday season was the highest As we’ve turned corner on a New Year, most of us have our demand in 2011, any mild price decreases we experience should then begin to rise decline, the cost-of-money to borrow at higher rates the longer you wait may just 1972 7.38 % 1992 8.39 % since 2005 – that banner year for the economy. sights set on the economy. Just what can we expect in 2011? offset any monthly savings you might see. For every point that interest rates go up there.in pre-foreclosures from 97,141 in 2009 to 79,637 1973 in December 8.04 % 1993 is the7.31 % With consumer spending elevated, manufacturing will seeCounty). an Continued recession?

A robust perhaps something

reclosure activity peaked inrecovery?

2010 Or, (see Chart: Monthly Foreclosure Activity in Maricopa But thefrom drop in 2010 is a positive sign. In fact, the total of 5,475 notices 2010 lowest lev on an 80% loan, the effective price of the home goes up about 10% due to what the “We must remember that price declines do not forecast a bad market ahead, 1974 9.19 % 1994 8.38 % uptick as retailers will need to restock shelves. Business spending in the middle. Indications seem to point to a better economic ce March of 2008.

While we still have several more years of distressed property inventory to eat up (it’s estimated that 22.5%-38.9% of homeowners are underwater on their mortgage), the homes purchased today are subject to much more rigorous lending difference in payments would amortize.

1975 9.05 % 1995 7.93 % they are an indicator of a bad market in the recent past. But these price declines is expected to further increase in 2011 and into 2012 as well. environment for 2011. Indeed, the economy is improving; albeit the For sellers, put your home getting on the market untilto prices risecourthouse may 8.87they’re % 1996 7.81they’re % stimulate demand which is a necessary of the recovery process, ” reports while

ndards. more As Tom Ruff, anus analyst with for Information says, new loans gains coming the pool have made it through strict part underwriting protocol bad waiting loanstojust keep sent the steps,1976 and once foreclosed, n The stock market“The made some encouraging in 2010.into

slowly than most of Americans anxious progress would Market also offset any gain you’d have. Your pool of potential buyers will be different.

1977 8.85 % 1997 7.60 % The Cromford Report, a local real estate research firm.

The DJIA closed out the year with a respectable 11% growth.

prefer.

Overall, 2010 was better than 2009.

2011 is expected to

nger delinquent. Good in, bad out.”

1978 9.64 % 1998 6.94 % Many won’t qualify at the higher rates when they would have qualified today.

Kiplinger.com forecasts the Dow to rise another 1000 points to be better than 2010. And 2012 even better yet, than this year.

1979 11.20 % 1999 7.44 % Additionally, If you’ll be repurchasing then you’ll too be financing at the higher top 12,500 in 2011 with the rally likely to continue into 2012.

The good news is that further economic declines are not expected 1980 13.74 % 2000 8.05 % rates we will have.

While still at elevated levels and putting pressure on home values, the amount of Certainly our humble recovery hasn’t indicated that all of this year. The bad news is that our recovery appears to be weak 1981 16.63 % 2001 6.97 % foreclosures within our local market is expected to drop, though perhaps not in the our troubles are behind us. The two major snags to a robust and protracted.

HE INTEREST RATE DANCE 1982 16.04 % 2002 6.54 % first few months of 2011 while banks work through the backlog created last year recovery continue to be the nation’s weak housing market and Making headlines in the mid-to-latter part of 2010, the 1983 13.24 % 2003 5.83 %

Whether it’s a clearance sale on a high-quality pair of shoes, or an investor with their two-month moratorium on foreclosures. disappointing unemployment. Employers added over 1 million announcement that “THE RECESSION IS OVER” had been met 1984 13.88 % 2004 “buying low to sell high, ” savvy shoppers know to capitalize on an opportunity to

Foreclosure activity peaked in 2010 (see chart: Monthly Foreclosure Activity in ortgage interest rates to record lows in 2010 workers (see table: Fixed Rate Mortgages Annual Average), with a 30-year fixed-rate low of 4.16%. But with the economy showing signs of life, rates have begun rising in early 2011 to nearly 5.84 5%.% By the to payrolls30-Year in 2010 according to figures from the Labor with scoffs and sneers.plunged “If that’s the case, it sure hasn’t been feeling 1985 12.43 % 2005 5.87 % buy a valued item at a huge discount. And while Arizona real estate is priced very Maricopa County).

But the drop in pre-foreclosures from 97,141 in 2009 to 79,637 Department.

But the gains2012, haven’t been to significantly like it,” many groaned. While economists what exactly me the housing market recovery is disagree underonway later this year and into weenough can expect to see rates continue their upward trend. Lawrence Yun, National Association of Realtors chief economist forecasts rates to average 5% and 5.8% in 2012 1986 over 10.19 % in 20112006 6.41 % low right now, the most important factor indicative of a good investment is the in 2010 is a positive sign. In fact, the total of 5,475 notices in December 2010 is reduce unemployment.

While forecasters expect employers to

defines a recession, we all know it’s when the economy fails to

1987 10.21 % 2007 6.34 % nearly 2% increase from last year’s low. potential value and worth. If you subscribe to the belief that Arizona is a highly the lowest level since March of 2008. While we still have several more years of add another 2.5 million workers this year, it’ll be several years grow, or contracts.

1988 10.34 % 2008 6.03 % desirable destination and will be in much demand in the decades to come, than distressed property inventory to eat up (it’s estimated that 22.5%-38.9% of before all of the 8.4 million jobs that have been lost will be While final numbers for the fourth quarter aren’t in yet, 1989 10.32 % 2009 5.04 % buying property in today’s market may be the wisest move you can make for your homeowners are underwater on their mortgage), the homes purchased today are r potential homebuyers wrestling therate decision on the best time to buy, it appears to be NOW. For even if home prices experience another 5% to 10% decline, the cost-of-money to borrow at higher rates the longer you wait may just offset any monthly recaptured. indications are that 2010 will have finishedwith with a 2%+ of 1990 10.13 % 2010 4.69 % future wealth portfolio. subject to much more rigorous lending standards. As Tom Ruff, an analyst with growth.

Generally recoveries from recessions have been closer to 1991 9.25 % Source: Freddie Mac vings you might see. For every point that interest rates go up on an 80% loan, the effective price of the home goes up about 10% due to what the difference in payments would amortize. the 4% or 5% range in GDP growth, but this modest 2% growth is growth nonetheless. A clear signal that the recession truly is over.

Arizona, and the Metro Phoenix market specifically, have been r sellers, The waiting to put your home on thetomarket prices maymarkets alsoinoffset any gain you’d have. Your pool of potential buyers will be different. Many won’t qualify at the higher rates when they would have qualified today. Additionally, If you’ll nation’s Gross Domestic Product was expected grow at until hit worse thanrise most other the US. Our housing market Source: Information Market be Source: Freddie Mac a rate of 2.0% to 2.5% over the next two years.

Now, with the

has fallen harder, population growth has spiraled to historic lows, purchasing then you’ll too be financing at the higher rates we will have. extension of the tax cuts that passed at the end of 2010, and in 2009 Arizona (generally always in the top five growth states) Source: Information Market MONTH RESIDENTIAL NOTICE RESIDENTIAL MONTH RESIDENTIAL NOTICE RESIDENTIAL forecasters are predicting heightened growth. Mark Zandi, sank to 49th out of 50 states when measuring employment growth.

RIZONAa well-known ON SALE

OF TRUSTEES SALE FORECLOSED

OF TRUSTEES SALE FORECLOSED economic forecaster with Moody’s Analytics, expects However bleak our decline, Arizona is regaining ground. By the a 3.9% rate of growth in 2011; a substantial, much-needed boost to end of 2010, Arizona had added jobs for four months in a row, December 5,475 3,283 December 7,405 4,792 help propel us back to pre-recession days. dropping unemployment from 9.5% to 9.4%, while the nation as a hether it’s a clearance sale on a high-quality pair of shoes, or an investor “buying low to sell high,” savvy shoppers know to capitalize on an opportunity to buy a valued item at a huge discount.

And while Arizona real estate is priced very low right now, the November 5,607 2,509 November 6,679 3,485 whole rose from 9.6% to 9.8% in that same time period. The state October 6,728 4,034 October 7,303 4,444 ost important factor indicative of a good investment isis expected the potential andandworth. youthatsubscribe to the belief that Arizona is a highly desirable destination and will be in much demand in the decades to come, than buying property in today’s market may to add 48,000value jobs in 2011 recent dataIfshows

September 7,116 4,877 September 7,408 3,432 Arizona has become the number-one fastest-growing market for As move the economy accelerated into 2011, national claims for jobless the wisest you can make for your future wealth portfolio. private sector jobs. Metropolitan Phoenix is now ranked second benefits dropped at the end of 2010 to the lowest level in two years.

August 7,186 4,831 August 8,624 3,546 in highest job growth among large cities, only lagging behind The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. reported its July 7,804 4,651 July 8,671 4,711 Washington, D.C. business barometer ended 2010 at 68.6 (a figure greater than 50 June 5,833 4,584 June 8,138 4,688 “2011 is going to be the best year for Arizona’s economic growth on the barometer signifies an expansion), which is the highest level May 6,106 3,841 May 8,126 3,472 in the past three years,” stated ASU economist Lee McPheters at the in over two decades.

April 6,634 4,115 April 8,552 3,787 47th annual forecast luncheon sponsored by ASU and JP Morgan After more than three years of “forced frugality” among March 7,625 5,127 March 10,077 3,023 Chase Bank. “I think it’s pretty clear we’re on the threshold of American consumers, it seems that shoppers are weary of February 7,179 3,891 February 8,000 4,780 recovery. Arizona is much stronger than it was a year ago,” he non-spending. Holiday 2010 purchasing rose a fantastic 5.5% January 6,344 4,065 January 8,158 3,832 continued. according to the MasterCard Advisors SpendingPulse report.

Exceeding even the most optimistic retail spending forecasts, Total: 79,637 49,808 Total: 97,141 47,992

G E N E R A L E C O N O M I C S N A P S H OT

The Interest Rate Dance

I’ve got to admit it’s getting better. A little better all the time.

I have to admit it’s getting better. It’s getting better since you’ve been mine.

Getting so much better all the time.

30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages Annual Average

Distressed Properties Easing Up

Arizona On Sale

Arizona Outpacing The Nation?

2009

An Economy On The Mend

2010

Monthly Foreclosure Activity In Maricopa County

M E T R O

P H O E N I X

For the past 25 years, The Peggy Rauch Group has provided the knowledge and market experience to achieve successful results for our clients’ transactions for lots, land, commercial property, custom homes, golf course properties, waterfront luxury homes and investment real estate.

We are dedicated to working with our clients’ best interests in mind.

We listen well, provide knowledgeable market experience and data, and then work tirelessly to achieve your real estate goals -- always working for YOU! For most people, purchasing property is among the most crucial investments they ever make. We pay close attention to the details, listen carefully and consult knowledgeably to make certain you are successful in achieving your real estate goals, whether in investment property, waterfront properties, golf course property, custom homes, commercial building space or land.

Extremely active on local real estate boards and associations, as well as all area residential and commercial tours, we stay on top of the Valley’s ever-changing market -- day in and day out -- making certain we provide the resource for you to explore your options and make the most informed decisions.

Our extensive networking capabilities bring together a strong team of professionals with expertise in financing, relocation, inspection, escrow

Peggy Rauch 602.206.3336

Peggy@PeggyRauch.com

and other real estate services to ensure your transaction is handled in the most competent and hassle-free manner.

And, like all good service organizations, we’re not done when the transaction closes. From schools and daycares to recreational activities and churches to zoning and permitting, we will always be there for you.

As your personal consultants, we believe real estate is about more than

Michael Meinerz 602.882.0075

Michael@PeggyRauch.com 7297 N. Scottsdale Rd. #1003 Scottsdale, AZ 85253

just buying and selling property. We are here to help you manage your real estate investment.

Dedication, knowledge and hard work have allowed The Peggy Rauch Group to provide exceptional service and satisfaction to our clients for the past 25 years. If you appreciate the importance and value of experience and knowledge in achieving your real estate goals, please contact us today. We welcome the opportunity to work with you.

www.ThePeggyRauchGroup.com If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing.

Produced by Desert Lifestyle Publishing • 480.460.0996 • www.DesertLifestyle.net

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