Jon Mirmelli | Featured Listings

FEATURED

LISTING

MIRM

ONE PRIORITY TEAM

Vista Camello 6725 N 65th Place Paradise Valley, AZ 85253

FEATURED LISTINGS

5 Bed | 4.5 Bath 6,982 SQFT | $2,395,000

February 2019

One Priority Team's Active, Pending, Closed

JUST

Need help selling your existing home or looking to buy? Please call Jon today! Referrals always appreciated.

JUST

JUST

PENDING

REDUCED

Turquesa Equestrian Estates

28058 N 103rd Place Scottsdale | 85262 5 Bed | 5.5 Bath | 5,804 SQFT $4,395,000

28611 N 71st St Scottsdale | 85266 4 Bed | 4.5 Bath | 4,829 SQFT $1,700,000

ACTIVE

Over 2 Acres of Land

17904 N 97th Way Scottsdale | 85255 5 Bed | 3.5 Bath | 4,864 SQFT $1,640,000

7365 E Dale Lane Scottsdale | 85266 4 Bed | 3.5 Bath | 3,500 SQFT $999,000

JUST

12402 N 138th Place Scottsdale | 85259 5 Bed | 5.5 Bath | 4,661 SQFT $1,699,900

21528 N 39th Ter. Phoenix | 85050 5 Bed | 4.5 Bath | 3,566 SQFT $589,900

20741 N 55th Ave Glendale | 85308 3 Bed | 2.5 Bath | 2,192 SQFT $509,900

ONE Priority Team | 602.730.2162

13798 E Gail Rd Scottsdale | 85259 5 Bed | 6 Bath | 5,949 SQFT $1,695,000

Carefree Fore More 8402 E Carefree Drive Carefree | 85377 4 Bed | 5 Bath | 5,940 SQFT $849,900

SOON

Arrowhead Lakes

Sierra Hills

ACTIVE

COMING

LISTED

Fireside at Desert Ridge

Aleta Henriquez

Scottsdale Mountain

REDUCED

Windgate Ranch

ACTIVE

SOON

JUST

ACTIVE

CLOSED

COMING

REDUCED

Estancia

Country Trace 6601 E Beverly Lane Scottsdale | 85254 5 Bed | 4 Bath | 3,577 SQFT $629,900

PENDING

Montana Del Sol 8245 E Bell Rd | Unit 230 Scottsdale | 85260 2 Bed | 2 Bath | 1,487 SQFT $435,000

Fountain Hills 16341 E Montrose Drive Fountain Hills | 85268 4 Bed | 2.5 Bath | 1,952 SQFT $399,900

Jon Mirmelli | 602.300.1900 JonMirmelli@gmail.com | OnePriorityTeam.com

Julianna Kinkade | 602.570.9171 | 602.363.6992

If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing.

FEATURED LISTING Vista Camello

6725 N 65th Place | Paradise Valley, AZ 85253 5 Beds | 4.5 Baths | 6,982 SQFT | $2,395,000 Premium Location on Cul-De-Sac with 1.341 Acre Lot

PRESENTED BY

Jon Mirmelli

Brenda Anderson | 602.725.5551 Ricky Gaynor

LISTED

Produced by DLP Marketing • (480)460-0996 • DLPmarketing.com

SEE THE BACK FOR MORE F E AT U R E D L I S T I N G S

ENJOY THE RIDE BY: ELLIOTT D. POLL ACK

|

The market continues to favor sellers in 2019, but not nearly as much as it did at the beginning of 2018 as potential buyers are grappling with affordability issues. The monthly average interest rate rose to 4.64% in December 2018, up 0.69% from the previous December’s 3.95%. For homes with a median sales price of $260,000 in Greater Phoenix, that equates to approximately $100 added to the monthly payment. Meanwhile, homes continued to appreciate over the course of 2018. Buyers who decide to shoulder the extra $100 per month on a $260,000 home will be purchasing one that’s approximately 1,845 square feet; nearly 100 square feet smaller than if they had purchased last year. In the 3rd quarter, affordability measured below the normal range for the first time since 2007 according to the Home Opportunity Index (HOI) published by the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo.

ELLIOTT D. POLL ACK & COMPANY

S

tock market volatility sure does stir up a lot of emotions, doesn’t it? We see a lot of headlines lately about how bad the economy is going to do; that it will slow down; that it will start to feel like last time soon. No matter that right now the economy is doing quite well. No matter that we are still growing at rates that are respectable. No matter that there are seven million unfilled jobs in America. No matter that leading indicators are still going up, consumer confidence remains at high levels, and the Fed’s recession indicator is still well below levels that would suggest a downturn. No. Let’s focus on the negative.

Are there negatives? Of course.

There almost always are. But, while they are worth mentioning, they are not the story.

Is the economy likely to slow over the next few quarters? Yes. But the current level of growth is unsustainable in an economy that is demographically going through a period of slow labor force growth and tepid productivity growth.

Isn’t the housing market slowing? In many markets it is. This is noteworthy because housing (both new owner and rental housing) account for almost one-sixth of the economy. Yet, the recent declines have been considerably more than offset by the rest of the economy. That is likely to continue to be the case over the next year. In addition, the underlying demographics of single family housing over the next five years are amazing. That doesn’t

mean there can’t be interim declines.

Will there be another recession? Absolutely. Our economy, just like every other economy in the history of mankind, is inherently cyclical. The current expansion that we’re experiencing, by the middle of this year, will be the longest expansion is U.S. history. Also, the last recession we went through was the deepest since 1929. Probabilities are that the next recession will be like most of its post-war siblings: short and shallow. Especially if the Fed can continue to increase interest rates now to help alleviate future declines in economic activity, the next downturn is likely to be mild.

2

018 was a successful year for the Greater Phoenix residential resale market in both price appreciation and sales volume.

For the overall market, price trends capping off 2018 are as follows according to Arizona Regional MLS sales:

Take it from someone who has been trying to predict the economy for nearly a half century. Projecting the exact timing and depth of a cycle well in advance is tough to do. But that doesn’t stop us from making an experienced, educated guess. We feel confident that the economy is likely to continue to do well through 2019.

There is a great deal of stimulus right now between the tax cuts, government spending and consumer spending. It is late in the cycle but there are no signs of it ending at the moment even given the 50-year low in the unemployment rate and the age of this expansion.

• The annual average sales price increased 8.8% from $297,317 to $323,562

For the time being, enjoy the ride. The odds are that the end is not near. And the long-term outlook for the U.S. economy remains excellent regardless of where we presently stand in this cycle.

Flip sales were strong throughout most of 2018 until the last few months. The slowdown in flips could be in response to declining profit margins. Flip investors had been averaging at least a 3035% between the acquisition and sale price over the past 7 years.

However increasing acquisition costs have pushed their margins down to just under 26% as of November 2018.

Sales volume decreased, but a miniscule 0.1% from an annual rate of 93,519 to 93,420. This makes 2018 the 5th highest year overall for sales transaction volume. The top 4 years in order were 2005, 2011, 2004, and 2017. Total dollar volume increased 8.6% from $27.8 billion to $30.2 billion, placing 2018 in a close second place overall for total money spent on residential resale transactions. 2005 is still the highest year for total dollar volume at $30.9 billion and transaction volume at 103,177.

Overall the Greater Phoenix housing market is considered healthy going into 2019, however appreciation rates over 8% are not sustainable going forward. Supply is still 34% below normal, but buyer affordability concerns, rising interest rates and fears that the market is overvalued have pushed buyer demand to nearly 13% below normal in just a few months. As the seller market weakens, higher price ranges may see more sellers offer interest rate buy-downs while the lower price ranges may see higher percentages of seller assisted closing costs and concessions.

ANNUAL SALES RATE

12 MONTH MOVING AVERAGE SALES PRICE PER SQ. FT. GREATER PHOENIX - ARMLS RESIDENTIAL - MEASURED MONTHLY 1/1/2019

GREATER PHOENIX - ARMLS RESIDENTIAL - MEASURED MONTHLY 1/1/2019

EMPLOYMENT 2.4% Increase in 2019 2.2% Increase in 2020

Dwelling Type

Annual Sales Rate

Condo

Greater Phoenix - ARMLS Residential - Measured Monthly Last Update: 1/1/2018 11:16:51 PM

County

Maricopa

Mobile

Pinal

SFR

Yavapai

© 2016 Cromford Associates LLC - sharing is permitted from Cromford Report subscribers only

2007

2008

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Transaction Type

City

Aguila

HUD

87,920

82,291

75,071

83,666

87,728

Anthem

REO

Apache Junction

Short

Arizona City

Normal

Arlington Avondale

Transaction Type HUD

Normal REO Short

,384

68,210

62,346

70K

73,064

79,181

90K

80K

2009

93,511

2006

99,527

100K

2005

89,222

2004

91,042

2003

97,634

110K

2002

103,178

2001

9

SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS 0.0% Increase in 2019 5.0% Increase in 2020

• The annual median sales price gained 8.4% from $239,900 to $260,000

GREATER PHOENIX ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT

RETAIL SALES 6.7% Increase in 2019 5.5% Increase in 2020

Builders continued to focus primarily between $300,000 and $500,000 in 2018 with 41% of their sales landing in this range.

However, they also sold 24% more models in the low $200,000s last year; especially in the areas of Pinal County, Buckeye and Avondale. New homes sold between $200,000 and $250,000 in 2018 were 1,811 square feet on average compared to resale homes sold through the MLS at an average of 1,647 square feet.

• The annual average price per square foot rose 8.1% from $150.37 to $162.51

SOURCE: ELLIOTT D. POLLACK & CO., JANUARY 2019

POPULATION 1.9% Increase in 2019 2.0% Increase in 2020

Buyers are not experiencing relief by continuing to rent either.

Single family homes rented through the Arizona Regional MLS showed an increase of 8.6% in average lease price per square foot. Renters with budgets between $1,200 and $1,400 leased homes that were 1,632 square feet on average; 42 square feet smaller than a year ago.

Zip

Black Canyon City 85003 85004 85006 85007

ENJOY THE RIDE BY: ELLIOTT D. POLL ACK

|

The market continues to favor sellers in 2019, but not nearly as much as it did at the beginning of 2018 as potential buyers are grappling with affordability issues. The monthly average interest rate rose to 4.64% in December 2018, up 0.69% from the previous December’s 3.95%. For homes with a median sales price of $260,000 in Greater Phoenix, that equates to approximately $100 added to the monthly payment. Meanwhile, homes continued to appreciate over the course of 2018. Buyers who decide to shoulder the extra $100 per month on a $260,000 home will be purchasing one that’s approximately 1,845 square feet; nearly 100 square feet smaller than if they had purchased last year. In the 3rd quarter, affordability measured below the normal range for the first time since 2007 according to the Home Opportunity Index (HOI) published by the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo.

ELLIOTT D. POLL ACK & COMPANY

S

tock market volatility sure does stir up a lot of emotions, doesn’t it? We see a lot of headlines lately about how bad the economy is going to do; that it will slow down; that it will start to feel like last time soon. No matter that right now the economy is doing quite well. No matter that we are still growing at rates that are respectable. No matter that there are seven million unfilled jobs in America. No matter that leading indicators are still going up, consumer confidence remains at high levels, and the Fed’s recession indicator is still well below levels that would suggest a downturn. No. Let’s focus on the negative.

Are there negatives? Of course.

There almost always are. But, while they are worth mentioning, they are not the story.

Is the economy likely to slow over the next few quarters? Yes. But the current level of growth is unsustainable in an economy that is demographically going through a period of slow labor force growth and tepid productivity growth.

Isn’t the housing market slowing? In many markets it is. This is noteworthy because housing (both new owner and rental housing) account for almost one-sixth of the economy. Yet, the recent declines have been considerably more than offset by the rest of the economy. That is likely to continue to be the case over the next year. In addition, the underlying demographics of single family housing over the next five years are amazing. That doesn’t

mean there can’t be interim declines.

Will there be another recession? Absolutely. Our economy, just like every other economy in the history of mankind, is inherently cyclical. The current expansion that we’re experiencing, by the middle of this year, will be the longest expansion is U.S. history. Also, the last recession we went through was the deepest since 1929. Probabilities are that the next recession will be like most of its post-war siblings: short and shallow. Especially if the Fed can continue to increase interest rates now to help alleviate future declines in economic activity, the next downturn is likely to be mild.

2

018 was a successful year for the Greater Phoenix residential resale market in both price appreciation and sales volume.

For the overall market, price trends capping off 2018 are as follows according to Arizona Regional MLS sales:

Take it from someone who has been trying to predict the economy for nearly a half century. Projecting the exact timing and depth of a cycle well in advance is tough to do. But that doesn’t stop us from making an experienced, educated guess. We feel confident that the economy is likely to continue to do well through 2019.

There is a great deal of stimulus right now between the tax cuts, government spending and consumer spending. It is late in the cycle but there are no signs of it ending at the moment even given the 50-year low in the unemployment rate and the age of this expansion.

• The annual average sales price increased 8.8% from $297,317 to $323,562

For the time being, enjoy the ride. The odds are that the end is not near. And the long-term outlook for the U.S. economy remains excellent regardless of where we presently stand in this cycle.

Flip sales were strong throughout most of 2018 until the last few months. The slowdown in flips could be in response to declining profit margins. Flip investors had been averaging at least a 3035% between the acquisition and sale price over the past 7 years.

However increasing acquisition costs have pushed their margins down to just under 26% as of November 2018.

Sales volume decreased, but a miniscule 0.1% from an annual rate of 93,519 to 93,420. This makes 2018 the 5th highest year overall for sales transaction volume. The top 4 years in order were 2005, 2011, 2004, and 2017. Total dollar volume increased 8.6% from $27.8 billion to $30.2 billion, placing 2018 in a close second place overall for total money spent on residential resale transactions. 2005 is still the highest year for total dollar volume at $30.9 billion and transaction volume at 103,177.

Overall the Greater Phoenix housing market is considered healthy going into 2019, however appreciation rates over 8% are not sustainable going forward. Supply is still 34% below normal, but buyer affordability concerns, rising interest rates and fears that the market is overvalued have pushed buyer demand to nearly 13% below normal in just a few months. As the seller market weakens, higher price ranges may see more sellers offer interest rate buy-downs while the lower price ranges may see higher percentages of seller assisted closing costs and concessions.

ANNUAL SALES RATE

12 MONTH MOVING AVERAGE SALES PRICE PER SQ. FT. GREATER PHOENIX - ARMLS RESIDENTIAL - MEASURED MONTHLY 1/1/2019

GREATER PHOENIX - ARMLS RESIDENTIAL - MEASURED MONTHLY 1/1/2019

EMPLOYMENT 2.4% Increase in 2019 2.2% Increase in 2020

Dwelling Type

Annual Sales Rate

Condo

Greater Phoenix - ARMLS Residential - Measured Monthly Last Update: 1/1/2018 11:16:51 PM

County

Maricopa

Mobile

Pinal

SFR

Yavapai

© 2016 Cromford Associates LLC - sharing is permitted from Cromford Report subscribers only

2007

2008

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Transaction Type

City

Aguila

HUD

87,920

82,291

75,071

83,666

87,728

Anthem

REO

Apache Junction

Short

Arizona City

Normal

Arlington Avondale

Transaction Type HUD

Normal REO Short

,384

68,210

62,346

70K

73,064

79,181

90K

80K

2009

93,511

2006

99,527

100K

2005

89,222

2004

91,042

2003

97,634

110K

2002

103,178

2001

9

SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS 0.0% Increase in 2019 5.0% Increase in 2020

• The annual median sales price gained 8.4% from $239,900 to $260,000

GREATER PHOENIX ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT

RETAIL SALES 6.7% Increase in 2019 5.5% Increase in 2020

Builders continued to focus primarily between $300,000 and $500,000 in 2018 with 41% of their sales landing in this range.

However, they also sold 24% more models in the low $200,000s last year; especially in the areas of Pinal County, Buckeye and Avondale. New homes sold between $200,000 and $250,000 in 2018 were 1,811 square feet on average compared to resale homes sold through the MLS at an average of 1,647 square feet.

• The annual average price per square foot rose 8.1% from $150.37 to $162.51

SOURCE: ELLIOTT D. POLLACK & CO., JANUARY 2019

POPULATION 1.9% Increase in 2019 2.0% Increase in 2020

Buyers are not experiencing relief by continuing to rent either.

Single family homes rented through the Arizona Regional MLS showed an increase of 8.6% in average lease price per square foot. Renters with budgets between $1,200 and $1,400 leased homes that were 1,632 square feet on average; 42 square feet smaller than a year ago.

Zip

Black Canyon City 85003 85004 85006 85007

FEATURED

LISTING

MIRM

ONE PRIORITY TEAM

Vista Camello 6725 N 65th Place Paradise Valley, AZ 85253

FEATURED LISTINGS

5 Bed | 4.5 Bath 6,982 SQFT | $2,395,000

February 2019

One Priority Team's Active, Pending, Closed

JUST

Need help selling your existing home or looking to buy? Please call Jon today! Referrals always appreciated.

JUST

JUST

PENDING

REDUCED

Turquesa Equestrian Estates

28058 N 103rd Place Scottsdale | 85262 5 Bed | 5.5 Bath | 5,804 SQFT $4,395,000

28611 N 71st St Scottsdale | 85266 4 Bed | 4.5 Bath | 4,829 SQFT $1,700,000

ACTIVE

Over 2 Acres of Land

17904 N 97th Way Scottsdale | 85255 5 Bed | 3.5 Bath | 4,864 SQFT $1,640,000

7365 E Dale Lane Scottsdale | 85266 4 Bed | 3.5 Bath | 3,500 SQFT $999,000

JUST

12402 N 138th Place Scottsdale | 85259 5 Bed | 5.5 Bath | 4,661 SQFT $1,699,900

21528 N 39th Ter. Phoenix | 85050 5 Bed | 4.5 Bath | 3,566 SQFT $589,900

20741 N 55th Ave Glendale | 85308 3 Bed | 2.5 Bath | 2,192 SQFT $509,900

ONE Priority Team | 602.730.2162

13798 E Gail Rd Scottsdale | 85259 5 Bed | 6 Bath | 5,949 SQFT $1,695,000

Carefree Fore More 8402 E Carefree Drive Carefree | 85377 4 Bed | 5 Bath | 5,940 SQFT $849,900

SOON

Arrowhead Lakes

Sierra Hills

ACTIVE

COMING

LISTED

Fireside at Desert Ridge

Aleta Henriquez

Scottsdale Mountain

REDUCED

Windgate Ranch

ACTIVE

SOON

JUST

ACTIVE

CLOSED

COMING

REDUCED

Estancia

Country Trace 6601 E Beverly Lane Scottsdale | 85254 5 Bed | 4 Bath | 3,577 SQFT $629,900

PENDING

Montana Del Sol 8245 E Bell Rd | Unit 230 Scottsdale | 85260 2 Bed | 2 Bath | 1,487 SQFT $435,000

Fountain Hills 16341 E Montrose Drive Fountain Hills | 85268 4 Bed | 2.5 Bath | 1,952 SQFT $399,900

Jon Mirmelli | 602.300.1900 JonMirmelli@gmail.com | OnePriorityTeam.com

Julianna Kinkade | 602.570.9171 | 602.363.6992

If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing.

FEATURED LISTING Vista Camello

6725 N 65th Place | Paradise Valley, AZ 85253 5 Beds | 4.5 Baths | 6,982 SQFT | $2,395,000 Premium Location on Cul-De-Sac with 1.341 Acre Lot

PRESENTED BY

Jon Mirmelli

Brenda Anderson | 602.725.5551 Ricky Gaynor

LISTED

Produced by DLP Marketing • (480)460-0996 • DLPmarketing.com

SEE THE BACK FOR MORE F E AT U R E D L I S T I N G S