Randy Lewis | Metro Phoenix Economic Snapshot

LEWIS

10xHomes.com

METRO PHOENIX BY THE NUMBERS AVERAGE SALES PRICE

BY CITY

$ $12,806 AVERAGE INCREASE IN SALE PRICE

96.6 % LIST/SELL RATIO

2015

2016

Avondale

$186,535 $202,690

Buckeye

$195,174 $210,751

Surprise

$218,217 $231,937

Glendale

$222,798 $236,776

Mesa

$240,955 $256,429

Goodyear

$252,256 $263,683

Phoenix

$259,972 $280,335

Peoria

$269,212 $283,529

Litchfield Park

$278,184

Anthem

$316,515 $317,767

Gilbert

$295,248 $313,590

Tempe

$284,547 $301,418

Chandler

$300,829 $322,313

Scottsdale

$630,484 $650,722

Paradise Valley

$1,706,251

$315,899

$1,663,500

Statistics gathered from ARMLS. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. (Single-Family Residences)

If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing.

Produced by DLP Marketing • (480)460-0996 • DLPmarketing.com

Metro Phoenix EconomIC Snapshot 2017

Economy Likely to Accelerate in 2017 Economic Update

W

The recovery so far in this cycle has been less robust than Phoenicians have been used to. This is largely due to what can only be called a mediocre national recovery as well as economic and demographic issues that have slowed the number of people moving in the U.S. in general and to Greater Phoenix specifically. Many of the economic issues that have slowed population flows such as slow job growth, the number of homeowners underwater (their mortgage exceeds the value of their home) nationally, people who are still in the “penalty box” due to foreclosures and issues concerning millennials ability to find a job, should continue to cure in 2017.

Other issues may be more long term in nature. For example, millennials have delayed marriage into their very late twenties. When you delay marriage, you delay having kids and you delay the need to own a home. Baby boomers, the other very large demographic group, are working later in life for economic and noneconomic reasons. This delays

The demographics for apartments have probably never been better in history. A combination of a large number of millennials entering their early twenties, the fact that they will be in apartments longer than any other generation alive, and the likelihood that some baby boomers will be selling their homes and living off the equity they had in their homes, suggest that apartment demand will be strong in the years to come.

In addition, office and industrial construction should also get stronger. Thus, the construction outlook is excellent.

The outlook for non-construction jobs is probably better than it has been in more than a decade and the unemployment rate continues to fall toward full employment. Thus, while we are not likely to see a typical boom in 2017, jobs should increase at a faster rate since any time since 2006.

All of these factors suggest a strong, but not booming economy in 2017. Given the malaise of the past several years, this is an excellent outlook.

E NT

RETAIL

ITS

3.3% increase in 2017

3.5% increase in 2018

4.0% increase in 2017 4.0% increase in 2018

M ILY PE

A

GLE F

YM

LES

RM

EMPL O

Source: Elliott D. Pollack & Co., December 2016

IN

P O P UL

1.9% increase in 2017 2.0% increase in 2018

SA

S

IO N AT

Principal of The Cromford Report

retirement and delays them moving. These trends may change. It is our expectation that population growth in Greater Phoenix will modestly accelerate in 2017. This, combined with what we believe will be a stronger job market, will cause the economy in general and new housing specifically, to accelerate.

Greater Phoenix Economic Forecast

By Michael Orr

By Elliott Pollack | Elliott D. Pollack & Co.

hat happens in the U.S. economy as a whole will have a significant impact on what happens in the Greater Phoenix economy.

Going into 2017, the outlook is improving. And given the proposed policies of the Trump administration, growth is likely to accelerate especially in the second half of 2017. This will have positive repercussions in the Greater Phoenix area.

Residential REAL ESTATE

SALES PER MONTH Greater Phoenix • ARMLS Residential • Measured Monthly

12% increase in 2017 15% increase in 2018

T

he Greater Phoenix housing market started 2016 in a healthy state and has only improved since then.

For the overall market across Greater Phoenix, as of January 2017, the annual price numbers based on ARMLS sales were as follows, compared with January 2016:

The annual average price per sq. ft. rose by 5% from $134.01 to $141.17

Lender Owned

Short Sales

Normal

SALES PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT Greater Phoenix • ARMLS Residential

The annual average sales price increased 5% from $263,054 to $277,075 The annual median sales price gained 8% from $209,000 to $225,000 Sales volume has increased 7% from an annual rate of 82,285 to 88,027. Combining the 7% increase in sales volume with the 5% increase in average prices, the total amount spent on home sales through ARMLS rose almost 13% from $21.6 billion to $24.4 billion.

These numbers confirm a market that favors sellers over buyers, but the situation does vary depending on price range and the location and age of the home.

It is worthwhile considering where the additional demand has come from. We can get a clue by examining the Origination Insight Report issued by Ellie Mae. This shows that the closing rate on purchase loans improved from a low of 66.5% in April 2015 to a high of 77.2% in October 2016. This means that a significantly higher percentage of loan applications were approved during 2016 than they were during 2015. You might wonder if lenders were relaxing their loan underwriting standards, but the same report indicates that this was not the case. Rather a higher percentage of loan applicants were achieving the set standards for income, credit-worthiness and down-payment. This is consistent with an improving economy and higher incomes which is indeed what we experienced in Central Arizona between 2015 and 2016.

During 2016 it was the West Valley that demonstrated the fastest appreciation with areas like El Mirage, Avondale and Central Glendale seeing very low supply and strong demand for affordable homes. However

higher pricing has brought out a few more sellers in the West Valley and as we enter 2017 it is the Southeast Valley that is seeing the strongest trends favorable to sellers. Low inventory and increased demand work together to apply upward pricing pressure and this particularly applies to the range between $250,000 and $350,000.

Pinal County has also seen improving trends, especially in Maricopa, San Tan Valley, Apache Junction and Florence. The luxury market went through a difficult period between August 2015 and August 2016, but has shown increasing signs of recovery since the summer of 2016.

We have a large wave of baby boomers reaching retirement age and downsizing their homes, so demand for smaller and more conveniently located homes has grown while that for large and more distant homes has dissipated. We have yet to see significant negative impact of rising mortgage interest rates, however there are signs that these higher rates have dampened demand in other localities so we continue to watch closely for changes in our market here in Greater Phoenix.

Economy Likely to Accelerate in 2017 Economic Update

W

The recovery so far in this cycle has been less robust than Phoenicians have been used to. This is largely due to what can only be called a mediocre national recovery as well as economic and demographic issues that have slowed the number of people moving in the U.S. in general and to Greater Phoenix specifically. Many of the economic issues that have slowed population flows such as slow job growth, the number of homeowners underwater (their mortgage exceeds the value of their home) nationally, people who are still in the “penalty box” due to foreclosures and issues concerning millennials ability to find a job, should continue to cure in 2017.

Other issues may be more long term in nature. For example, millennials have delayed marriage into their very late twenties. When you delay marriage, you delay having kids and you delay the need to own a home. Baby boomers, the other very large demographic group, are working later in life for economic and noneconomic reasons. This delays

The demographics for apartments have probably never been better in history. A combination of a large number of millennials entering their early twenties, the fact that they will be in apartments longer than any other generation alive, and the likelihood that some baby boomers will be selling their homes and living off the equity they had in their homes, suggest that apartment demand will be strong in the years to come.

In addition, office and industrial construction should also get stronger. Thus, the construction outlook is excellent.

The outlook for non-construction jobs is probably better than it has been in more than a decade and the unemployment rate continues to fall toward full employment. Thus, while we are not likely to see a typical boom in 2017, jobs should increase at a faster rate since any time since 2006.

All of these factors suggest a strong, but not booming economy in 2017. Given the malaise of the past several years, this is an excellent outlook.

E NT

RETAIL

ITS

3.3% increase in 2017

3.5% increase in 2018

4.0% increase in 2017 4.0% increase in 2018

M ILY PE

A

GLE F

YM

LES

RM

EMPL O

Source: Elliott D. Pollack & Co., December 2016

IN

P O P UL

1.9% increase in 2017 2.0% increase in 2018

SA

S

IO N AT

Principal of The Cromford Report

retirement and delays them moving. These trends may change. It is our expectation that population growth in Greater Phoenix will modestly accelerate in 2017. This, combined with what we believe will be a stronger job market, will cause the economy in general and new housing specifically, to accelerate.

Greater Phoenix Economic Forecast

By Michael Orr

By Elliott Pollack | Elliott D. Pollack & Co.

hat happens in the U.S. economy as a whole will have a significant impact on what happens in the Greater Phoenix economy.

Going into 2017, the outlook is improving. And given the proposed policies of the Trump administration, growth is likely to accelerate especially in the second half of 2017. This will have positive repercussions in the Greater Phoenix area.

Residential REAL ESTATE

SALES PER MONTH Greater Phoenix • ARMLS Residential • Measured Monthly

12% increase in 2017 15% increase in 2018

T

he Greater Phoenix housing market started 2016 in a healthy state and has only improved since then.

For the overall market across Greater Phoenix, as of January 2017, the annual price numbers based on ARMLS sales were as follows, compared with January 2016:

The annual average price per sq. ft. rose by 5% from $134.01 to $141.17

Lender Owned

Short Sales

Normal

SALES PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT Greater Phoenix • ARMLS Residential

The annual average sales price increased 5% from $263,054 to $277,075 The annual median sales price gained 8% from $209,000 to $225,000 Sales volume has increased 7% from an annual rate of 82,285 to 88,027. Combining the 7% increase in sales volume with the 5% increase in average prices, the total amount spent on home sales through ARMLS rose almost 13% from $21.6 billion to $24.4 billion.

These numbers confirm a market that favors sellers over buyers, but the situation does vary depending on price range and the location and age of the home.

It is worthwhile considering where the additional demand has come from. We can get a clue by examining the Origination Insight Report issued by Ellie Mae. This shows that the closing rate on purchase loans improved from a low of 66.5% in April 2015 to a high of 77.2% in October 2016. This means that a significantly higher percentage of loan applications were approved during 2016 than they were during 2015. You might wonder if lenders were relaxing their loan underwriting standards, but the same report indicates that this was not the case. Rather a higher percentage of loan applicants were achieving the set standards for income, credit-worthiness and down-payment. This is consistent with an improving economy and higher incomes which is indeed what we experienced in Central Arizona between 2015 and 2016.

During 2016 it was the West Valley that demonstrated the fastest appreciation with areas like El Mirage, Avondale and Central Glendale seeing very low supply and strong demand for affordable homes. However

higher pricing has brought out a few more sellers in the West Valley and as we enter 2017 it is the Southeast Valley that is seeing the strongest trends favorable to sellers. Low inventory and increased demand work together to apply upward pricing pressure and this particularly applies to the range between $250,000 and $350,000.

Pinal County has also seen improving trends, especially in Maricopa, San Tan Valley, Apache Junction and Florence. The luxury market went through a difficult period between August 2015 and August 2016, but has shown increasing signs of recovery since the summer of 2016.

We have a large wave of baby boomers reaching retirement age and downsizing their homes, so demand for smaller and more conveniently located homes has grown while that for large and more distant homes has dissipated. We have yet to see significant negative impact of rising mortgage interest rates, however there are signs that these higher rates have dampened demand in other localities so we continue to watch closely for changes in our market here in Greater Phoenix.

LEWIS

10xHomes.com

METRO PHOENIX BY THE NUMBERS AVERAGE SALES PRICE

BY CITY

$ $12,806 AVERAGE INCREASE IN SALE PRICE

96.6 % LIST/SELL RATIO

2015

2016

Avondale

$186,535 $202,690

Buckeye

$195,174 $210,751

Surprise

$218,217 $231,937

Glendale

$222,798 $236,776

Mesa

$240,955 $256,429

Goodyear

$252,256 $263,683

Phoenix

$259,972 $280,335

Peoria

$269,212 $283,529

Litchfield Park

$278,184

Anthem

$316,515 $317,767

Gilbert

$295,248 $313,590

Tempe

$284,547 $301,418

Chandler

$300,829 $322,313

Scottsdale

$630,484 $650,722

Paradise Valley

$1,706,251

$315,899

$1,663,500

Statistics gathered from ARMLS. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. (Single-Family Residences)

If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing.

Produced by DLP Marketing • (480)460-0996 • DLPmarketing.com

Metro Phoenix EconomIC Snapshot 2017