Rob Kukla | MPES

KUKL

Exceeding your Expectations

METRO PHOENIX

BY THE NUMBERS

$43,604 AVERAGE INCREASE IN SALE PRICE

BY CITY

2018

MID 2019

Glendale

$272,836

$283,401

Phoenix

$324,988

$339,114

Mesa

$305,896

$318,295

Peoria

$333,194

$347,945

Litchfield Park

$362,263

$371,498

Tempe

$347,230

$356,189

Gilbert

$364,248

$380,646

Chandler

$367,987

$379,866

Cave Creek

$534,254

$536,309

Fountain Hills

$569,638

$604,946

Scottsdale

$736,923

$789,958

Carefree

$923,743

$979,988

Paradise Valley

$2,006,319

$2,328,212

Community

Average Sale Price

Aviano Arcadia Biltmore Coronado Fireside at D. Ridge Fireside at Norterra Encanto Moon Valley Tatum Highlands Tatum Ranch Desert Ridge

$704,309 102 97% $1,369,565 117 97% $1,031,883 197 96% $383,180 67 95% $631,945 61 99% $391,585 62 99% $290,482 76 97% $357,259 68 99% $397,581 70 99% $392,530 58 98% $495,149 71 98%

METRO PHOENIX ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT

Days on List/Sell # Market Price Ratio Closed 11 26 30 5 11 26 33 71 37 100 115

Statistics gathered from ARMLS. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. (Single-Family Residences) *Includes attached product.

2019 SALES STATISTICS

BY COMMUNITY 1/1/2019 - 7/1/2019

Rob Kukla

480.650.3966

RobKukla@cox.net www.RobKukla.com 4501 N 22nd St | Ste #170 | Phoenix 85016 If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing.

MPES

Produced by DLP Marketing • (480)460-0996 • DLPmarketing.com

2019

MID-YEAR

Presented Exclusively By Rob Kukla

By Tina Tamboer, The Cromford Report

T

he current national economy is a perfectly temperate bowl of porridge. That is to say, economic experts consider the country to be enjoying a Goldilocks state of affairs – not too hot, not too cold, but just right.

2

019 has been a very interesting and amazing year so far for the Greater Phoenix residential resale market. The overall market price trends for the first half of the year are as follows according to Arizona Regional MLS sales:

The six leading indicators used to measure economic growth are the gross domestic product (GDP), jobs, durable goods, inflation, the stock market and interest rates. While the U.S. is currently in the longest expansion of growth ever – breaking the record that spanned from March 1991 to March 2001 – it’s been a slow climb with factors including trade wars and tariffs keeping growth in check.

The GDP is the dollar value of everything produced in a specific range of time, and the first quarter of 2019 saw a GDP growth of 3.1%, which is ideal. Below zero indicates a recession so we’re in no imminent danger.

Although the unemployment rate remains the lowest it’s been since 1969, job growth has slowed slightly, with only 75,000 jobs added in May. The good news is that the first quarter saw personal income increase 3.4% at an annual rate in all states but South Dakota. Arizona landed near the top with a 5.5% upward tick, the highest increase being 5.6% in West Virginia.

Durable goods, which covers machinery, equipment and materials used by businesses in their operation, fell slightly in May for a weak showing according to experts. Inflation measures rising prices and the Federal Reserve sets a 2% target rate, year-over-year. It’s currently where it should be.

to maintain balance in the economy. The fed funds rate creates an important benchmark and is currently at a healthy 2.5%.

Arizona and the Phoenix area also continue to grow and thrive. A recent Census Bureau report shows Maricopa County with the largest increase in population of all U.S. counties for the third year in a row. An average of 222 people moving here per day also means Arizona has become a prime destination for employers. In fact, the job growth rate in the metro area has grown 3.2% in the past year, translating to tens of thousands of new jobs in such key industries as healthcare, technology and construction.

Since the stock market tells us what investors expect the economy to do, it’s a prime indicator of economic health. After peaks in 2018, it has corrected and expected to move laterally while cautious investors wait to see what impact the trade wars will have.

One economic factor not on this list is the effect that climate change has on our country. It’s definitely the hot-button topic – pun intended – being discussed from coffee shops to boardrooms to the highest offices around the world. Researchers estimate it could reduce U.S. economic growth by 30% in the next century. Indeed, climate change is listed by the insurance industry as the number one risk in 2019. It will be vital to watch the efforts and changes made in the coming years to combat the economic fallout.

With stable interest rates comes a stronger economy. We’re currently enjoying lower rates which allow more people to afford to buy homes and cars, and more businesses are able to expand as well. When rates fall too low banks can’t profit so the Federal Reserve influences rates

Meanwhile, we can savor the just-right temperature of the current economy. Growth so far in 2019 may be subdued, but experts and investors believe another recession is two or more years out and will probably be mild. So enjoy the porridge and keep on prospering.

PERSONAL INCOME:

PERCENT CHANGE AT ANNUAL RATE, 2018:Q4 - 2019:Q1

QUINTILE GROWTH RATES 4.6 to 5.6 3.9 to 4.6 3.5 to 3.9 2.7 to 3.5 -0.6 to 2.7 U.S growth rate =3.4

The annual average price per square foot rose 6.9% from $157.18 to $168.07 The annual average sales price increased 6.7% from $312,491 to $333,339 The annual median sales price gained 7.2% from $250,000 to $268,000

Annual sales volume is down 2.6% from last June, from 94,522 to 92,061. On the surface that may look ominous for sellers, however last April annual sales took a sharp turn upwards after 7 months of decline. What turned it around?

The start of 2019 saw buyers grappling with affordability as average mortgage rates had risen from 4.5% last August to 4.9%

by November. Despite rates dropping back down to 4.5% by February, demand didn’t improve. Resale prices had continued to rise while incomes in Greater Phoenix remained stagnate with little to zero growth. However, things began to change in March. The first thing to boost demand was a notable drop in the average mortgage rate from 4.5% to 4.1% within a matter of weeks. The second boost to demand was in April and May when private sector earnings grew 1.6% and then another 1.3% consecutively. These two factors combined with more negotiable sellers caused a rebound in sales. After a 7-month decline in demand and underperforming 10.5% in the first quarter, MLS sales in the second quarter outperformed last year by 3.9%! Now the Greater Phoenix resale market has been launched back into a stronger seller market much to the disappointment of those buyers hoping price appreciation would flatten or decline this year.

It continues to become more expensive for Greater Phoenix residents to rent. The annual average rent per square foot for single family homes through the Arizona Regional MLS went up 8.3% from $0.83 last June to $0.91. Townhouses/Patio Homes rose 7.8% to $1.11/sf and Apartment Style/Loft Condos rose 2.6% to $1.18/sf. The top 10 most expensive zip codes to rent continue to be in the Central Avenue Corridor, Biltmore, Arcadia, Paradise Valley and Scottsdale where the combined median rent was $1,950/month last quarter and the median-sized unit rented was 1,405sf. The top 10 least expensive zip codes are in Pinal County, Tonopah, Waddell, Wittmann and Buckeye where the combined median rent was $1,345/month and the median-sized unit rented was 1,877sf.

After a rough first quarter where builders fell short of last year’s sales volume by 3.6%, April and May outperformed last year by 10.1% and 4.6% respectively bringing their sales volume up 1.1% over 2018 through May. While new single family homes are still seeing strong sales in the $300K-$500K price range, new townhome/condo sales are strongest between $200K-$250K and the median size sold is 1,362sf. The top 2 builders that have sold the most townhomes/condos in this price range this year

are Lennar in Gilbert and DR Horton in Mesa. Other competing developers building multi-family between $200K-$250K include Bela Flor in Mesa and Maracay in Goodyear.

Successful flip sales dropped a whopping 30% between August 2018 and January 2019 but rebounded strong when demand took a turn. Making up for lost time after being down 4.2% in the first quarter, flip sales have now outperformed 2018 by 4.8% through May. The median sale price for a flipped home in May was $245K, up 8.4%, and the average size sold was 1,710sf.

Overall the Greater Phoenix housing market is still very healthy.

As predicted however, appreciation rates have cooled down to 6-7% instead of the 8% reported last year. The highest appreciation rates can be found below $250K, where there is a high level of flip investor activity and rapidly declining supply.

Overall supply is currently 38.4% below normal and demand has risen from 13% below normal last January to 4.9% above normal.

Thanks to increased incomes and low interest rates, prices are projected to continue rising through 2019.

ANNUAL SALES RATE GREATER PHOENIX - ARMLS RESIDENTIAL - MEASURED MONTHLY 7/2/2019 2019

12 MONTH MOVING AVERAGE SALES PRICE PER SQ. FT. GREATER PHOENIX - ARMLS RESIDENTIAL - MEASURED MONTHLY 7/4/2019

By Tina Tamboer, The Cromford Report

T

he current national economy is a perfectly temperate bowl of porridge. That is to say, economic experts consider the country to be enjoying a Goldilocks state of affairs – not too hot, not too cold, but just right.

2

019 has been a very interesting and amazing year so far for the Greater Phoenix residential resale market. The overall market price trends for the first half of the year are as follows according to Arizona Regional MLS sales:

The six leading indicators used to measure economic growth are the gross domestic product (GDP), jobs, durable goods, inflation, the stock market and interest rates. While the U.S. is currently in the longest expansion of growth ever – breaking the record that spanned from March 1991 to March 2001 – it’s been a slow climb with factors including trade wars and tariffs keeping growth in check.

The GDP is the dollar value of everything produced in a specific range of time, and the first quarter of 2019 saw a GDP growth of 3.1%, which is ideal. Below zero indicates a recession so we’re in no imminent danger.

Although the unemployment rate remains the lowest it’s been since 1969, job growth has slowed slightly, with only 75,000 jobs added in May. The good news is that the first quarter saw personal income increase 3.4% at an annual rate in all states but South Dakota. Arizona landed near the top with a 5.5% upward tick, the highest increase being 5.6% in West Virginia.

Durable goods, which covers machinery, equipment and materials used by businesses in their operation, fell slightly in May for a weak showing according to experts. Inflation measures rising prices and the Federal Reserve sets a 2% target rate, year-over-year. It’s currently where it should be.

to maintain balance in the economy. The fed funds rate creates an important benchmark and is currently at a healthy 2.5%.

Arizona and the Phoenix area also continue to grow and thrive. A recent Census Bureau report shows Maricopa County with the largest increase in population of all U.S. counties for the third year in a row. An average of 222 people moving here per day also means Arizona has become a prime destination for employers. In fact, the job growth rate in the metro area has grown 3.2% in the past year, translating to tens of thousands of new jobs in such key industries as healthcare, technology and construction.

Since the stock market tells us what investors expect the economy to do, it’s a prime indicator of economic health. After peaks in 2018, it has corrected and expected to move laterally while cautious investors wait to see what impact the trade wars will have.

One economic factor not on this list is the effect that climate change has on our country. It’s definitely the hot-button topic – pun intended – being discussed from coffee shops to boardrooms to the highest offices around the world. Researchers estimate it could reduce U.S. economic growth by 30% in the next century. Indeed, climate change is listed by the insurance industry as the number one risk in 2019. It will be vital to watch the efforts and changes made in the coming years to combat the economic fallout.

With stable interest rates comes a stronger economy. We’re currently enjoying lower rates which allow more people to afford to buy homes and cars, and more businesses are able to expand as well. When rates fall too low banks can’t profit so the Federal Reserve influences rates

Meanwhile, we can savor the just-right temperature of the current economy. Growth so far in 2019 may be subdued, but experts and investors believe another recession is two or more years out and will probably be mild. So enjoy the porridge and keep on prospering.

PERSONAL INCOME:

PERCENT CHANGE AT ANNUAL RATE, 2018:Q4 - 2019:Q1

QUINTILE GROWTH RATES 4.6 to 5.6 3.9 to 4.6 3.5 to 3.9 2.7 to 3.5 -0.6 to 2.7 U.S growth rate =3.4

The annual average price per square foot rose 6.9% from $157.18 to $168.07 The annual average sales price increased 6.7% from $312,491 to $333,339 The annual median sales price gained 7.2% from $250,000 to $268,000

Annual sales volume is down 2.6% from last June, from 94,522 to 92,061. On the surface that may look ominous for sellers, however last April annual sales took a sharp turn upwards after 7 months of decline. What turned it around?

The start of 2019 saw buyers grappling with affordability as average mortgage rates had risen from 4.5% last August to 4.9%

by November. Despite rates dropping back down to 4.5% by February, demand didn’t improve. Resale prices had continued to rise while incomes in Greater Phoenix remained stagnate with little to zero growth. However, things began to change in March. The first thing to boost demand was a notable drop in the average mortgage rate from 4.5% to 4.1% within a matter of weeks. The second boost to demand was in April and May when private sector earnings grew 1.6% and then another 1.3% consecutively. These two factors combined with more negotiable sellers caused a rebound in sales. After a 7-month decline in demand and underperforming 10.5% in the first quarter, MLS sales in the second quarter outperformed last year by 3.9%! Now the Greater Phoenix resale market has been launched back into a stronger seller market much to the disappointment of those buyers hoping price appreciation would flatten or decline this year.

It continues to become more expensive for Greater Phoenix residents to rent. The annual average rent per square foot for single family homes through the Arizona Regional MLS went up 8.3% from $0.83 last June to $0.91. Townhouses/Patio Homes rose 7.8% to $1.11/sf and Apartment Style/Loft Condos rose 2.6% to $1.18/sf. The top 10 most expensive zip codes to rent continue to be in the Central Avenue Corridor, Biltmore, Arcadia, Paradise Valley and Scottsdale where the combined median rent was $1,950/month last quarter and the median-sized unit rented was 1,405sf. The top 10 least expensive zip codes are in Pinal County, Tonopah, Waddell, Wittmann and Buckeye where the combined median rent was $1,345/month and the median-sized unit rented was 1,877sf.

After a rough first quarter where builders fell short of last year’s sales volume by 3.6%, April and May outperformed last year by 10.1% and 4.6% respectively bringing their sales volume up 1.1% over 2018 through May. While new single family homes are still seeing strong sales in the $300K-$500K price range, new townhome/condo sales are strongest between $200K-$250K and the median size sold is 1,362sf. The top 2 builders that have sold the most townhomes/condos in this price range this year

are Lennar in Gilbert and DR Horton in Mesa. Other competing developers building multi-family between $200K-$250K include Bela Flor in Mesa and Maracay in Goodyear.

Successful flip sales dropped a whopping 30% between August 2018 and January 2019 but rebounded strong when demand took a turn. Making up for lost time after being down 4.2% in the first quarter, flip sales have now outperformed 2018 by 4.8% through May. The median sale price for a flipped home in May was $245K, up 8.4%, and the average size sold was 1,710sf.

Overall the Greater Phoenix housing market is still very healthy.

As predicted however, appreciation rates have cooled down to 6-7% instead of the 8% reported last year. The highest appreciation rates can be found below $250K, where there is a high level of flip investor activity and rapidly declining supply.

Overall supply is currently 38.4% below normal and demand has risen from 13% below normal last January to 4.9% above normal.

Thanks to increased incomes and low interest rates, prices are projected to continue rising through 2019.

ANNUAL SALES RATE GREATER PHOENIX - ARMLS RESIDENTIAL - MEASURED MONTHLY 7/2/2019 2019

12 MONTH MOVING AVERAGE SALES PRICE PER SQ. FT. GREATER PHOENIX - ARMLS RESIDENTIAL - MEASURED MONTHLY 7/4/2019

KUKL

Exceeding your Expectations

METRO PHOENIX

BY THE NUMBERS

$43,604 AVERAGE INCREASE IN SALE PRICE

BY CITY

2018

MID 2019

Glendale

$272,836

$283,401

Phoenix

$324,988

$339,114

Mesa

$305,896

$318,295

Peoria

$333,194

$347,945

Litchfield Park

$362,263

$371,498

Tempe

$347,230

$356,189

Gilbert

$364,248

$380,646

Chandler

$367,987

$379,866

Cave Creek

$534,254

$536,309

Fountain Hills

$569,638

$604,946

Scottsdale

$736,923

$789,958

Carefree

$923,743

$979,988

Paradise Valley

$2,006,319

$2,328,212

Community

Average Sale Price

Aviano Arcadia Biltmore Coronado Fireside at D. Ridge Fireside at Norterra Encanto Moon Valley Tatum Highlands Tatum Ranch Desert Ridge

$704,309 102 97% $1,369,565 117 97% $1,031,883 197 96% $383,180 67 95% $631,945 61 99% $391,585 62 99% $290,482 76 97% $357,259 68 99% $397,581 70 99% $392,530 58 98% $495,149 71 98%

METRO PHOENIX ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT

Days on List/Sell # Market Price Ratio Closed 11 26 30 5 11 26 33 71 37 100 115

Statistics gathered from ARMLS. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. (Single-Family Residences) *Includes attached product.

2019 SALES STATISTICS

BY COMMUNITY 1/1/2019 - 7/1/2019

Rob Kukla

480.650.3966

RobKukla@cox.net www.RobKukla.com 4501 N 22nd St | Ste #170 | Phoenix 85016 If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing.

MPES

Produced by DLP Marketing • (480)460-0996 • DLPmarketing.com

2019

MID-YEAR

Presented Exclusively By Rob Kukla