Jenn Jenkins | MPES

MID-YEAR

2017

Metro Phoenix Economic Snapshot

Finding Economic

MIDDLE GROUND in 2017

A

By Elliott Pollack Elliott D. Pollack & Co.

dvanced economies float on a sea of credit. Access to credit allows an economy to expand rapidly. Take away credit? The economy can only expand at a snail’s pace, the housing market shrinks dramatically, and the consumer can’t purchase big ticket items. Create too much credit, however, and the economy risks becoming overleveraged.

The housing bubble and Great Recession are great examples of these consequences.

A successful economy must walk the middle ground.

This is a path that the U.S. economy has, for the most part, walked successfully for a long time.

In the last 100 years, an event that forces us to use the term “for the most part” has only occurred twice. Both times were exceptionally ugly.

The latest economic data for the U.S. shows that the country continues to walk this middle ground. The average amount of personal income used to pay for previously accumulated debt is now back down to where it was in the early 1980s and is way below where it was in 2007.

Following a significant decline after 2008, revolving credit

(mostly credit card debt) is finally approaching its previous peak…nine years later. This is very healthy.

On the other hand, non-revolving credit (mainly auto and student loan debt) has dramatically ballooned since 2011.

Some point the finger at auto loans, but the fact is that the credit scores of auto loan borrowers are higher now than in previous cycles. Thus, the risks appear to be in the normal range. This is true despite the fact that some sub-prime auto lending is occurring.

That leaves student loan debt, which continues to swell by the day. Student loan debt has affected the ability of many to buy homes, furniture, and other goods. Put another way, it has affected their ability to live “normal” lives.

Especially unfortunate are those who took out student loans but did not obtain a degree at all or who did obtain a degree but not for a marketable skill that allows them to generate enough income to justify their loans. For these individuals, the debt burden will take a protracted amount of time to overcome and could end up creating a permanent problem for them as a borrower.

Even for those students who earned a marketable skill allowing the repayment of their loans and more, it may still delay entry into the housing market and other consumer markets for years. Student loans are also not dischargeable in bankruptcy, so there is no way out like there was for excess housing debt during the last economic crisis.

The bottom line is that credit accumulation by consumers remains, for the most part, well under control. The exception is student loans, which has and will continue to slow consumer markets and should be monitored carefully. Taking all of this into account, we still believe the remainder of 2017 will conclude as a good year for the economy overall.

Employment should increase by an estimated 2.1% across Arizona and 2.6% in Greater Phoenix and the unemployment rate should continue to decline. We are expecting population to grow 1.6% this year and 1.7% growth next year for the state and slightly higher growth in Greater Phoenix. Housing should continue at a strong upward pace of roughly 10% growth per year for the next two years. And retail sales, especially auto sales, should grow by 3%-4% in the short term.

Greater Phoenix Economic Forecast Source: Elliott D. Pollack & Co.,July 2017

POPULATION 1.7% increase in 2017 1.8% increase in 2018

EMPLOYMENT 2.6% increase in 2017 2.4% increase in 2018

Mid-range demand is up strongly thanks to improved credit scores and significant easing of lender underwriting conditions. Appreciation is moderate for this price segment, but comfortably exceeds the CPI inflation rate which remains low. There are occasional problems for homes that have been neglected or in great need of modernization, but in general the market below $600,000 is buoyant.

RETAIL SALES 3.8% increase in 2017 3.4% increase in 2018

SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS 10% increase in 2017 10% increase in 2018

Residential Real Estate:

MAINTAINING MOMENTUM

By Michael Orr Principal of The Cromford Report

T

he Greater Phoenix housing market started 2017 in a healthy state and has only improved since then, with sellers in a strong negotiating position across most geographies and price ranges.

For the overall market across Greater Phoenix, as of July 2017, the annual price changes were as follows, compared with July 2016:

The annual average price per sq. ft. rose by 6% from $137.54 to $145.89 The annual average sales price increased 6% from $269,475 to $286,877

The lower end of the luxury market (below $1,500,000) has regained much of the momentum it lost during 2016.

Sales volume is surging and prices are starting to harden.

Over $1,500,000 the market remains relatively weak thanks to excess supply and little growth in demand. However in recent months there have been signs of improvement compared with 2016, particularly for the segment over $3,000,000.

Despite some softness in the higher echelons of the luxury sector, the majority of the Greater Phoenix housing market is even healthier than it was 12 months ago and the prospect of steeply rising interest rates has faded. We have a large wave of baby boomers reaching retirement age and downsizing their homes, so demand for smaller and more conveniently located homes has grown while that for large and more distant homes has dissipated. However, the millennial generation is now a more significant pool of potential home buyers than the baby boomer generation and this dominance will increase over the coming decade.

SALES PER MONTH Greater Phoenix • ARMLS Residential • Measured Monthly

The annual median sales price gained 7% from $217,000 to $231,500 These are all annual averages, but the monthly median sales price has progressed to $245,000 in June this year. These price rises are consistent with a market that favors sellers over buyers, but the situation can depend on price range and the location and age of the home.

The price range below $200,000 remains extremely short of supply and the number of hopeful buyers far exceeds the low number of homes for sale. Appreciation is strongest for these entry-level homes and condition is rarely a constraint.

Location can be an issue, but the shortage of homes for sale in the central areas has encouraged more buyers to go looking in outer locations. This has led to much improved markets in locations like Buckeye, Maricopa, San Tan Valley, Florence, Casa Grande, Apache Junction and Surprise.

Between $200,000 and $600,000, supply has improved over 2016 and is being replenished by new home builders.

New single family home permits in Maricopa and Pinal Counties totaled 8,623 year to date by the end of May. This is an increase of 11% compared to 2016. However it is still inadequate to meet demand.

Lender Owned

Short Sales

SALES PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT Greater Phoenix • ARMLS Residential

Normal

Finding Economic

MIDDLE GROUND in 2017

A

By Elliott Pollack Elliott D. Pollack & Co.

dvanced economies float on a sea of credit. Access to credit allows an economy to expand rapidly. Take away credit? The economy can only expand at a snail’s pace, the housing market shrinks dramatically, and the consumer can’t purchase big ticket items. Create too much credit, however, and the economy risks becoming overleveraged.

The housing bubble and Great Recession are great examples of these consequences.

A successful economy must walk the middle ground.

This is a path that the U.S. economy has, for the most part, walked successfully for a long time.

In the last 100 years, an event that forces us to use the term “for the most part” has only occurred twice. Both times were exceptionally ugly.

The latest economic data for the U.S. shows that the country continues to walk this middle ground. The average amount of personal income used to pay for previously accumulated debt is now back down to where it was in the early 1980s and is way below where it was in 2007.

Following a significant decline after 2008, revolving credit

(mostly credit card debt) is finally approaching its previous peak…nine years later. This is very healthy.

On the other hand, non-revolving credit (mainly auto and student loan debt) has dramatically ballooned since 2011.

Some point the finger at auto loans, but the fact is that the credit scores of auto loan borrowers are higher now than in previous cycles. Thus, the risks appear to be in the normal range. This is true despite the fact that some sub-prime auto lending is occurring.

That leaves student loan debt, which continues to swell by the day. Student loan debt has affected the ability of many to buy homes, furniture, and other goods. Put another way, it has affected their ability to live “normal” lives.

Especially unfortunate are those who took out student loans but did not obtain a degree at all or who did obtain a degree but not for a marketable skill that allows them to generate enough income to justify their loans. For these individuals, the debt burden will take a protracted amount of time to overcome and could end up creating a permanent problem for them as a borrower.

Even for those students who earned a marketable skill allowing the repayment of their loans and more, it may still delay entry into the housing market and other consumer markets for years. Student loans are also not dischargeable in bankruptcy, so there is no way out like there was for excess housing debt during the last economic crisis.

The bottom line is that credit accumulation by consumers remains, for the most part, well under control. The exception is student loans, which has and will continue to slow consumer markets and should be monitored carefully. Taking all of this into account, we still believe the remainder of 2017 will conclude as a good year for the economy overall.

Employment should increase by an estimated 2.1% across Arizona and 2.6% in Greater Phoenix and the unemployment rate should continue to decline. We are expecting population to grow 1.6% this year and 1.7% growth next year for the state and slightly higher growth in Greater Phoenix. Housing should continue at a strong upward pace of roughly 10% growth per year for the next two years. And retail sales, especially auto sales, should grow by 3%-4% in the short term.

Greater Phoenix Economic Forecast Source: Elliott D. Pollack & Co.,July 2017

POPULATION 1.7% increase in 2017 1.8% increase in 2018

EMPLOYMENT 2.6% increase in 2017 2.4% increase in 2018

Mid-range demand is up strongly thanks to improved credit scores and significant easing of lender underwriting conditions. Appreciation is moderate for this price segment, but comfortably exceeds the CPI inflation rate which remains low. There are occasional problems for homes that have been neglected or in great need of modernization, but in general the market below $600,000 is buoyant.

RETAIL SALES 3.8% increase in 2017 3.4% increase in 2018

SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS 10% increase in 2017 10% increase in 2018

Residential Real Estate:

MAINTAINING MOMENTUM

By Michael Orr Principal of The Cromford Report

T

he Greater Phoenix housing market started 2017 in a healthy state and has only improved since then, with sellers in a strong negotiating position across most geographies and price ranges.

For the overall market across Greater Phoenix, as of July 2017, the annual price changes were as follows, compared with July 2016:

The annual average price per sq. ft. rose by 6% from $137.54 to $145.89 The annual average sales price increased 6% from $269,475 to $286,877

The lower end of the luxury market (below $1,500,000) has regained much of the momentum it lost during 2016.

Sales volume is surging and prices are starting to harden.

Over $1,500,000 the market remains relatively weak thanks to excess supply and little growth in demand. However in recent months there have been signs of improvement compared with 2016, particularly for the segment over $3,000,000.

Despite some softness in the higher echelons of the luxury sector, the majority of the Greater Phoenix housing market is even healthier than it was 12 months ago and the prospect of steeply rising interest rates has faded. We have a large wave of baby boomers reaching retirement age and downsizing their homes, so demand for smaller and more conveniently located homes has grown while that for large and more distant homes has dissipated. However, the millennial generation is now a more significant pool of potential home buyers than the baby boomer generation and this dominance will increase over the coming decade.

SALES PER MONTH Greater Phoenix • ARMLS Residential • Measured Monthly

The annual median sales price gained 7% from $217,000 to $231,500 These are all annual averages, but the monthly median sales price has progressed to $245,000 in June this year. These price rises are consistent with a market that favors sellers over buyers, but the situation can depend on price range and the location and age of the home.

The price range below $200,000 remains extremely short of supply and the number of hopeful buyers far exceeds the low number of homes for sale. Appreciation is strongest for these entry-level homes and condition is rarely a constraint.

Location can be an issue, but the shortage of homes for sale in the central areas has encouraged more buyers to go looking in outer locations. This has led to much improved markets in locations like Buckeye, Maricopa, San Tan Valley, Florence, Casa Grande, Apache Junction and Surprise.

Between $200,000 and $600,000, supply has improved over 2016 and is being replenished by new home builders.

New single family home permits in Maricopa and Pinal Counties totaled 8,623 year to date by the end of May. This is an increase of 11% compared to 2016. However it is still inadequate to meet demand.

Lender Owned

Short Sales

SALES PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT Greater Phoenix • ARMLS Residential

Normal

Maricopa County By The Numbers August 2017 6/12/2017 - 7/12/2017

7,448

$320,697

TOTAL #

CLOSED

98

AVG DAYS ON MARKET

LIST/SELL PRICE RATIO

[

66

[

AVG SOLD PRICE

Back to School – at Home

Once considered cutting edge or alternative, homeschooling is practically mainstream now. Approximately 2.3 million students learn at home in the U.S. Source: NHERI.org

Jenn Jenkins Realty Executives

602-214-3881 Jenn@JennJenkins.com JennJenkins.com 4700 N 12th Street | Suite #222 | Phoenix, AZ 85014 Call Jenn today if you are thinking about a new home!

If your home is currently listed, this isthis notisanot solicitation for that If your home is currently listed, a solicitation for listing. that listing.

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