Jarson & Jarson | MPES Feb 2019

$45,641

AVERAGE INCREASE IN SALE PRICE

BY CITY

2017

Glendale

$253,137

$272,698

Phoenix

$297,023

$324,905

Mesa

$277,633

$305,843

Peoria

$306,181

$332,787

Litchfield Park

$339,727

$362,229

Tempe

$317,249

$347,217

Gilbert

$339,386

$364,274

Chandler

$343,813

$367,948

Cave Creek

$490,740

$533,415

Fountain Hills

$527,217

$569,638

Scottsdale

$683,200

$736,775

Carefree

$857,812

$923,743

Paradise Valley

$1,820,556

$2,005,538

Community

Average Sale Price

Aviano Arcadia Biltmore Coronado Fireside at D. Ridge Fireside at Norterra Encanto Moon Valley Tatum Highlands Tatum Ranch Desert Ridge

$642,113 133 98% $1,037,406 122 96% $840,235 121 97% $328,661 78 98% $489,837 71 98% $434,016 63 98% $496,636 87 97% $363,840 87 98% $403,830 65 98% $380,874 67 98% $495,788 68 98%

METRO PHOENIX ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT

Days on List/Sell # Market Price Ratio Closed 46 50 57 13 16 57 28 133 68 169 233

Statistics gathered from ARMLS. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. (Single-Family Residences) *Includes attached product.

2018 SALES STATISTICS

BY COMMUNITY 1/1/2018 - 1/1/2019

Scott & Debbie Jarson 480.425.9300

info@azarchitecture.com azarchitecture.com 3707 N. Marshall Way#5 Scottsdale, 85251 If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing.

MPES

2018

Produced by DLP Marketing • (480)460-0996 • DLPmarketing.com

Photographer: Bill Timmerman

Your Real Estate Connection for Buying or Selling Architecturally Unique Homes.TM

METRO PHOENIX

BY THE NUMBERS

2019

ENJOY THE RIDE BY: ELLIOTT D. POLL ACK

|

The market continues to favor sellers in 2019, but not nearly as much as it did at the beginning of 2018 as potential buyers are grappling with affordability issues. The monthly average interest rate rose to 4.64% in December 2018, up 0.69% from the previous December’s 3.95%. For homes with a median sales price of $260,000 in Greater Phoenix, that equates to approximately $100 added to the monthly payment. Meanwhile, homes continued to appreciate over the course of 2018. Buyers who decide to shoulder the extra $100 per month on a $260,000 home will be purchasing one that’s approximately 1,845 square feet; nearly 100 square feet smaller than if they had purchased last year. In the 3rd quarter, affordability measured below the normal range for the first time since 2007 according to the Home Opportunity Index (HOI) published by the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo.

ELLIOTT D. POLL ACK & COMPANY

S

tock market volatility sure does stir up a lot of emotions, doesn’t it? We see a lot of headlines lately about how bad the economy is going to do; that it will slow down; that it will start to feel like last time soon. No matter that right now the economy is doing quite well. No matter that we are still growing at rates that are respectable. No matter that there are seven million unfilled jobs in America. No matter that leading indicators are still going up, consumer confidence remains at high levels, and the Fed’s recession indicator is still well below levels that would suggest a downturn. No. Let’s focus on the negative.

Are there negatives? Of course.

There almost always are. But, while they are worth mentioning, they are not the story.

Is the economy likely to slow over the next few quarters? Yes. But the current level of growth is unsustainable in an economy that is demographically going through a period of slow labor force growth and tepid productivity growth.

Isn’t the housing market slowing? In many markets it is. This is noteworthy because housing (both new owner and rental housing) account for almost one-sixth of the economy. Yet, the recent declines have been considerably more than offset by the rest of the economy. That is likely to continue to be the case over the next year. In addition, the underlying demographics of single family housing over the next five years are amazing. That doesn’t

mean there can’t be interim declines.

Will there be another recession? Absolutely. Our economy, just like every other economy in the history of mankind, is inherently cyclical. The current expansion that we’re experiencing, by the middle of this year, will be the longest expansion is U.S. history. Also, the last recession we went through was the deepest since 1929. Probabilities are that the next recession will be like most of its post-war siblings: short and shallow. Especially if the Fed can continue to increase interest rates now to help alleviate future declines in economic activity, the next downturn is likely to be mild.

2

018 was a successful year for the Greater Phoenix residential resale market in both price appreciation and sales volume.

For the overall market, price trends capping off 2018 are as follows according to Arizona Regional MLS sales:

Take it from someone who has been trying to predict the economy for nearly a half century. Projecting the exact timing and depth of a cycle well in advance is tough to do. But that doesn’t stop us from making an experienced, educated guess. We feel confident that the economy is likely to continue to do well through 2019.

There is a great deal of stimulus right now between the tax cuts, government spending and consumer spending. It is late in the cycle but there are no signs of it ending at the moment even given the 50-year low in the unemployment rate and the age of this expansion.

• The annual average sales price increased 8.8% from $297,317 to $323,562

For the time being, enjoy the ride. The odds are that the end is not near. And the long-term outlook for the U.S. economy remains excellent regardless of where we presently stand in this cycle.

Flip sales were strong throughout most of 2018 until the last few months. The slowdown in flips could be in response to declining profit margins. Flip investors had been averaging at least a 3035% between the acquisition and sale price over the past 7 years.

However increasing acquisition costs have pushed their margins down to just under 26% as of November 2018.

Sales volume decreased, but a miniscule 0.1% from an annual rate of 93,519 to 93,420. This makes 2018 the 5th highest year overall for sales transaction volume. The top 4 years in order were 2005, 2011, 2004, and 2017. Total dollar volume increased 8.6% from $27.8 billion to $30.2 billion, placing 2018 in a close second place overall for total money spent on residential resale transactions. 2005 is still the highest year for total dollar volume at $30.9 billion and transaction volume at 103,177.

Overall the Greater Phoenix housing market is considered healthy going into 2019, however appreciation rates over 8% are not sustainable going forward. Supply is still 34% below normal, but buyer affordability concerns, rising interest rates and fears that the market is overvalued have pushed buyer demand to nearly 13% below normal in just a few months. As the seller market weakens, higher price ranges may see more sellers offer interest rate buy-downs while the lower price ranges may see higher percentages of seller assisted closing costs and concessions.

ANNUAL SALES RATE

12 MONTH MOVING AVERAGE SALES PRICE PER SQ. FT. GREATER PHOENIX - ARMLS RESIDENTIAL - MEASURED MONTHLY 1/1/2019

GREATER PHOENIX - ARMLS RESIDENTIAL - MEASURED MONTHLY 1/1/2019

EMPLOYMENT 2.4% Increase in 2019 2.2% Increase in 2020

Dwelling Type

Annual Sales Rate

Condo

Greater Phoenix - ARMLS Residential - Measured Monthly Last Update: 1/1/2018 11:16:51 PM

County

Maricopa

Mobile

Pinal

SFR

Yavapai

© 2016 Cromford Associates LLC - sharing is permitted from Cromford Report subscribers only

2007

2008

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Transaction Type

City

Aguila

HUD

87,920

82,291

75,071

83,666

87,728

Anthem

REO

Apache Junction

Short

Arizona City

Normal

Arlington Avondale

Transaction Type HUD

Normal REO Short

,384

68,210

62,346

70K

73,064

79,181

90K

80K

2009

93,511

2006

99,527

100K

2005

89,222

2004

91,042

2003

97,634

110K

2002

103,178

2001

9

SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS 0.0% Increase in 2019 5.0% Increase in 2020

• The annual median sales price gained 8.4% from $239,900 to $260,000

GREATER PHOENIX ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT

RETAIL SALES 6.7% Increase in 2019 5.5% Increase in 2020

Builders continued to focus primarily between $300,000 and $500,000 in 2018 with 41% of their sales landing in this range.

However, they also sold 24% more models in the low $200,000s last year; especially in the areas of Pinal County, Buckeye and Avondale. New homes sold between $200,000 and $250,000 in 2018 were 1,811 square feet on average compared to resale homes sold through the MLS at an average of 1,647 square feet.

• The annual average price per square foot rose 8.1% from $150.37 to $162.51

SOURCE: ELLIOTT D. POLLACK & CO., JANUARY 2019

POPULATION 1.9% Increase in 2019 2.0% Increase in 2020

Buyers are not experiencing relief by continuing to rent either.

Single family homes rented through the Arizona Regional MLS showed an increase of 8.6% in average lease price per square foot. Renters with budgets between $1,200 and $1,400 leased homes that were 1,632 square feet on average; 42 square feet smaller than a year ago.

Zip

Black Canyon City 85003 85004 85006 85007

ENJOY THE RIDE BY: ELLIOTT D. POLL ACK

|

The market continues to favor sellers in 2019, but not nearly as much as it did at the beginning of 2018 as potential buyers are grappling with affordability issues. The monthly average interest rate rose to 4.64% in December 2018, up 0.69% from the previous December’s 3.95%. For homes with a median sales price of $260,000 in Greater Phoenix, that equates to approximately $100 added to the monthly payment. Meanwhile, homes continued to appreciate over the course of 2018. Buyers who decide to shoulder the extra $100 per month on a $260,000 home will be purchasing one that’s approximately 1,845 square feet; nearly 100 square feet smaller than if they had purchased last year. In the 3rd quarter, affordability measured below the normal range for the first time since 2007 according to the Home Opportunity Index (HOI) published by the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo.

ELLIOTT D. POLL ACK & COMPANY

S

tock market volatility sure does stir up a lot of emotions, doesn’t it? We see a lot of headlines lately about how bad the economy is going to do; that it will slow down; that it will start to feel like last time soon. No matter that right now the economy is doing quite well. No matter that we are still growing at rates that are respectable. No matter that there are seven million unfilled jobs in America. No matter that leading indicators are still going up, consumer confidence remains at high levels, and the Fed’s recession indicator is still well below levels that would suggest a downturn. No. Let’s focus on the negative.

Are there negatives? Of course.

There almost always are. But, while they are worth mentioning, they are not the story.

Is the economy likely to slow over the next few quarters? Yes. But the current level of growth is unsustainable in an economy that is demographically going through a period of slow labor force growth and tepid productivity growth.

Isn’t the housing market slowing? In many markets it is. This is noteworthy because housing (both new owner and rental housing) account for almost one-sixth of the economy. Yet, the recent declines have been considerably more than offset by the rest of the economy. That is likely to continue to be the case over the next year. In addition, the underlying demographics of single family housing over the next five years are amazing. That doesn’t

mean there can’t be interim declines.

Will there be another recession? Absolutely. Our economy, just like every other economy in the history of mankind, is inherently cyclical. The current expansion that we’re experiencing, by the middle of this year, will be the longest expansion is U.S. history. Also, the last recession we went through was the deepest since 1929. Probabilities are that the next recession will be like most of its post-war siblings: short and shallow. Especially if the Fed can continue to increase interest rates now to help alleviate future declines in economic activity, the next downturn is likely to be mild.

2

018 was a successful year for the Greater Phoenix residential resale market in both price appreciation and sales volume.

For the overall market, price trends capping off 2018 are as follows according to Arizona Regional MLS sales:

Take it from someone who has been trying to predict the economy for nearly a half century. Projecting the exact timing and depth of a cycle well in advance is tough to do. But that doesn’t stop us from making an experienced, educated guess. We feel confident that the economy is likely to continue to do well through 2019.

There is a great deal of stimulus right now between the tax cuts, government spending and consumer spending. It is late in the cycle but there are no signs of it ending at the moment even given the 50-year low in the unemployment rate and the age of this expansion.

• The annual average sales price increased 8.8% from $297,317 to $323,562

For the time being, enjoy the ride. The odds are that the end is not near. And the long-term outlook for the U.S. economy remains excellent regardless of where we presently stand in this cycle.

Flip sales were strong throughout most of 2018 until the last few months. The slowdown in flips could be in response to declining profit margins. Flip investors had been averaging at least a 3035% between the acquisition and sale price over the past 7 years.

However increasing acquisition costs have pushed their margins down to just under 26% as of November 2018.

Sales volume decreased, but a miniscule 0.1% from an annual rate of 93,519 to 93,420. This makes 2018 the 5th highest year overall for sales transaction volume. The top 4 years in order were 2005, 2011, 2004, and 2017. Total dollar volume increased 8.6% from $27.8 billion to $30.2 billion, placing 2018 in a close second place overall for total money spent on residential resale transactions. 2005 is still the highest year for total dollar volume at $30.9 billion and transaction volume at 103,177.

Overall the Greater Phoenix housing market is considered healthy going into 2019, however appreciation rates over 8% are not sustainable going forward. Supply is still 34% below normal, but buyer affordability concerns, rising interest rates and fears that the market is overvalued have pushed buyer demand to nearly 13% below normal in just a few months. As the seller market weakens, higher price ranges may see more sellers offer interest rate buy-downs while the lower price ranges may see higher percentages of seller assisted closing costs and concessions.

ANNUAL SALES RATE

12 MONTH MOVING AVERAGE SALES PRICE PER SQ. FT. GREATER PHOENIX - ARMLS RESIDENTIAL - MEASURED MONTHLY 1/1/2019

GREATER PHOENIX - ARMLS RESIDENTIAL - MEASURED MONTHLY 1/1/2019

EMPLOYMENT 2.4% Increase in 2019 2.2% Increase in 2020

Dwelling Type

Annual Sales Rate

Condo

Greater Phoenix - ARMLS Residential - Measured Monthly Last Update: 1/1/2018 11:16:51 PM

County

Maricopa

Mobile

Pinal

SFR

Yavapai

© 2016 Cromford Associates LLC - sharing is permitted from Cromford Report subscribers only

2007

2008

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Transaction Type

City

Aguila

HUD

87,920

82,291

75,071

83,666

87,728

Anthem

REO

Apache Junction

Short

Arizona City

Normal

Arlington Avondale

Transaction Type HUD

Normal REO Short

,384

68,210

62,346

70K

73,064

79,181

90K

80K

2009

93,511

2006

99,527

100K

2005

89,222

2004

91,042

2003

97,634

110K

2002

103,178

2001

9

SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS 0.0% Increase in 2019 5.0% Increase in 2020

• The annual median sales price gained 8.4% from $239,900 to $260,000

GREATER PHOENIX ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT

RETAIL SALES 6.7% Increase in 2019 5.5% Increase in 2020

Builders continued to focus primarily between $300,000 and $500,000 in 2018 with 41% of their sales landing in this range.

However, they also sold 24% more models in the low $200,000s last year; especially in the areas of Pinal County, Buckeye and Avondale. New homes sold between $200,000 and $250,000 in 2018 were 1,811 square feet on average compared to resale homes sold through the MLS at an average of 1,647 square feet.

• The annual average price per square foot rose 8.1% from $150.37 to $162.51

SOURCE: ELLIOTT D. POLLACK & CO., JANUARY 2019

POPULATION 1.9% Increase in 2019 2.0% Increase in 2020

Buyers are not experiencing relief by continuing to rent either.

Single family homes rented through the Arizona Regional MLS showed an increase of 8.6% in average lease price per square foot. Renters with budgets between $1,200 and $1,400 leased homes that were 1,632 square feet on average; 42 square feet smaller than a year ago.

Zip

Black Canyon City 85003 85004 85006 85007

$45,641

AVERAGE INCREASE IN SALE PRICE

BY CITY

2017

Glendale

$253,137

$272,698

Phoenix

$297,023

$324,905

Mesa

$277,633

$305,843

Peoria

$306,181

$332,787

Litchfield Park

$339,727

$362,229

Tempe

$317,249

$347,217

Gilbert

$339,386

$364,274

Chandler

$343,813

$367,948

Cave Creek

$490,740

$533,415

Fountain Hills

$527,217

$569,638

Scottsdale

$683,200

$736,775

Carefree

$857,812

$923,743

Paradise Valley

$1,820,556

$2,005,538

Community

Average Sale Price

Aviano Arcadia Biltmore Coronado Fireside at D. Ridge Fireside at Norterra Encanto Moon Valley Tatum Highlands Tatum Ranch Desert Ridge

$642,113 133 98% $1,037,406 122 96% $840,235 121 97% $328,661 78 98% $489,837 71 98% $434,016 63 98% $496,636 87 97% $363,840 87 98% $403,830 65 98% $380,874 67 98% $495,788 68 98%

METRO PHOENIX ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT

Days on List/Sell # Market Price Ratio Closed 46 50 57 13 16 57 28 133 68 169 233

Statistics gathered from ARMLS. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. (Single-Family Residences) *Includes attached product.

2018 SALES STATISTICS

BY COMMUNITY 1/1/2018 - 1/1/2019

Scott & Debbie Jarson 480.425.9300

info@azarchitecture.com azarchitecture.com 3707 N. Marshall Way#5 Scottsdale, 85251 If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing.

MPES

2018

Produced by DLP Marketing • (480)460-0996 • DLPmarketing.com

Photographer: Bill Timmerman

Your Real Estate Connection for Buying or Selling Architecturally Unique Homes.TM

METRO PHOENIX

BY THE NUMBERS

2019