85259.com
2
5
9
MPES
Ranked #24 Nationally for 2018
Rider Team Sells Scottsdale!
5
BETH
8
Community
Average Sale Price
Days on List/Sell # Market Price Ratio Closed
Ancala Clearwater Hills DC Ranch FireRock Gainey Ranch Grayhawk Kierland McDowell M. Ranch McCormick Ranch Silverleaf Troon (only) 85255
$1,192,221 171 97% $1,759,708 193 93% $1,121,224 144 97% $1,453,706 262 93% $970,118 89 95% $742,476 110 97% $462,367 127 98% $724,957 70 98% $636,681 60 97% $3,720,340 336 94% $965,200 195 96%
26 12 62 20 17 62 21 * 129 14 35 18
2018 SALES STATISTICS
BY COMMUNITY
MID-YEAR 2018
1/1/2018 - 7/1/2018
Statistics gathered from ARMLS. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. (Single-Family Residences) *Includes attached product.
METRO PHOENIX BY THE NUMBERS
$49,403 AVERAGE INCREASE IN SALE PRICE
BY CITY
2017
Glendale
$253,137
$270,212
Phoenix
$297,023
$319,498
Mesa
$277,633
$300,561
Peoria
$306,181
$327,151
Litchfield Park
$339,727
$356,526
Tempe
$317,249
$345,642
Gilbert
$339,386
$361,179
Chandler
$343,813
$367,967
Cave Creek
$490,740
$524,155
Fountain Hills
$527,217
$570,027
Scottsdale
$683,200
$744,593
Carefree
$857,812
$900,649
Paradise Valley
$1,820,556
$2,107,756
MID 2018
BethRider azEliteTeam.com
BethRider@kw.com
602.315.8749
15333 N. Pima Rd. Suite 130 Scottsdale, AZ 85260 Each office independently owned and operated.
Call Beth Rider today if you would like to sell your home faster and for top dollar! If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing.
Produced by DLP Marketing • (480)460-0996 • DLPmarketing.com
Presented By
BETH RIDER
NATIONAL & LOCAL ECONOMIES CONTINUE TO DO WELL
Current events surrounding trade tariffs on construction materials such as lumber, steel and aluminum will make it more difficult for builders to keep home prices down going forward. Despite absorbing a good portion of building cost increases over the years, a large jump in material costs mean something will have to give to keep new housing products affordable. That may be reflected in more high-density neighborhoods, fewer amenities, and smaller models.
By Elliott Pollack Elliott D. Pollack & Co.
By Michael Orr Principal of The Cromford Report
T
he residential resale market in Greater Phoenix has continued to favor sellers in 2018 and overall price trends have continued rising. For the overall market across Greater Phoenix, annual price trends since June 2017 are as follows according to Arizona Regional MLS sales:
The annual average price per square foot rose 7.7% from $145.79 to $157.06 Last Update: 1/1/2018 11:16:51 PM
50K
40K
30K
POPULATION 1.9% increase in 2018 1.9% increase in 2019
EMPLOYMENT 2.9% increase in 2018 2.7% increase in 2019
20K
10K
0K
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Maricopa
Pinal
SFR
Yavapai
Transaction Type
City
Aguila
HUD
75,071
87,920
93,511
2008
Anthem
REO
Apache Junction
Short
Arizona City
Normal
Arlington Avondale
Transaction Type HUD
Normal REO Short
58,384
55,229
60K
68,210
SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS 12% increase in 2018 10% increase in 2019
Hearing cries for more affordable housing supply, developers have sold more new homes in the low $200’s this year; selling 35% more than they did last year within the same time frame. However, the under $200,000 market remains neglected for additional supply. As of May 2018, only 6% of new homes sold were under $200,000 while 78% were between $200,000 and $500,000.
70K
62,346
RETAIL SALES 6.8% increase in 2018 6.7% increase in 2019
Sales volume has increased 2.6% from an annual rate of 94,537 to 96,965. The first half of 2018 is up 2.1% from the first half of 2017, however the 2nd Quarter of 2018 was only up 0.7% from the 2nd Quarter of 2017. At this rate, it doesn’t look promising for 2018 to outperform 2017 in transactional volume. Total dollar volume has increased 12% from $14.5B in the first half of 2017 to $16.2B in the first half of 2018, reflecting a significant increase in sales for all price ranges over $200,000. At this point 2018 has even outperformed the first half of 2005 in total dollar volume by $1.1B and could be positioned to outperform the 2005 record of $30.9B.
Source: Elliott D. Pollack & Co., July 2018
2007
90K
80K
Greater Phoenix Economic Forecast
2006
82,291
100K
2005
83,666
2004
87,728
The monthly median sales price gained 7.9% from $231,749 to $250,000 110K
County
Mobile
© 2016 Cromford Associates LLC - sharing is permitted from Cromford Report subscribers only
2003
99,527
2002
Condo
Greater Phoenix - ARMLS Residential - Measured Monthly
89,222
2001
Dwelling Type
Annual Sales Rate
91,042
The annual average sales price increased 8.8% from $287,093 to $312,390
53,131
There are always threats to expansions, especially ones this long. The possibility of a trade war is one example. The
Overall, the economic outlook for both the country and our local economy remains positive. The rest of 2018 and 2019 are likely to be periods of continued expansion. The head winds of increased tariffs and higher interest rates could affect the speed of the expansion, but are not likely to affect the positive direction of the economy.
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SALES
73,064
Other data suggesting that the expansion will continue include continued gains observed in the index of leading indicators, strong consumer confidence, a positively sloped yield curve (investors aren’t fleeing to the safety of U.S. Treasuries) and record levels of job openings. Given that this recovery/expansion is now the second longest in U.S. history, that is all good news. By this time next year, the expansion is likely to be the longest in U.S. history.
The local economy continues to move forward as well. Employment is still growing at a rate fast enough to put Greater Phoenix 7th out of the 34 major employment markets in the U.S. in percentage terms and 6th in the country in terms of absolute job gains. The unemployment rate in the Greater Phoenix area now stands at 3.4% compared to 4.1% a year ago. Given the growth in jobs, it is likely that population growth will modestly accelerate over the next year.
Residential Real Estate:
103,178
Also noteworthy for the economy, the Fed recently increased the Fed funds rate again. In fact, they believe that the economy is strong enough to allow increases in the interest rate over the next several quarters. Obviously, that is subject to change based on economic conditions. But, anticipate rising interest rates to continue over the next year.
Overall, we expect some type of compromise with all of our trading partners that will reduce trade tensions and stop or somewhat mitigate intellectual property theft. That will allow the expansion to continue. Given the massive stimulus of the tax cuts and the likely increase in government spending on infrastructure, the odds favor continued growth for the rest of 2018 and 2019.
Overall, sellers remain in good position going into the second half of 2018 as potential homebuyers struggle with low supply and increasing rents. The cost of rent per square foot rose 4.7% in the last 12 months on properties leased through the Arizona Regional MLS, pushing the median lease price to $1,450 in the 2nd Quarter of 2018. Going forward, home prices are projected to continue rising through the end of 2018.
97,634
In other good news, despite the combination of rapid increases in jobs and a low unemployment rate, wage rates have not yet ratcheted up significantly. This suggests that there is still some slack in the economy, likely in part from the labor participation rate, which is still low by historic standards. This, in turn, suggests that some discouraged workers are returning to the labor force.
term “trade war” is hardly ever defined. Tariffs, which are effectively an additional tax usually paid by the end consumer, will likely increase. Given the continuing U.S. trade deficit, the claim that the country is losing jobs because of this deficit is probably correct. However, whether or not there are enough job seekers to fill those potential jobs is open to question. Also, given that China has so much more to lose than the U.S. being so heavily reliant on exporting its goods to the U.S., it is doubtful that China wants an extended, full-blown trade war.
79,181
D
espite threats of higher tariffs on both exports and imports, the national economy continues to do well. The unemployment rate is now 3.6%, the lowest rate in almost 50 years. Job gains are not only rapid, but, they are happening across the board in every industry.
Flip sales, defined as homes purchased and re-sold within a 6-month period, are up 29% so far this year through May 2018. The growth in this segment is largely attributed to iBuyers more than doubling their output compared to last year. Tariffs will influence investors’ acquisition and renovation decisions as the costs for improvements such as new appliances, water heaters and HVAC units are affected.
Zip
Black Canyon Cit 85003 85004 85006 85007
Price Range
A. $0K to $25K
B. $25K to $50K C. $50K to $75K D. $75K to $100K E. $100K to $125K F. $125K to $150K G. $150K to $175K H. $175K to $200K I. $200K to $250K
85008 85009 85012 85013 85014 85015 85016 85017 85018
Year of Close Date 2000
J. $250K to $300K
2001
K. $300K to $400K
2002
L. $400K to $500K
2003
M. $500K to $600K
2004
N. $600K to $800K
2005
O. $800K to $1M
2006
NATIONAL & LOCAL ECONOMIES CONTINUE TO DO WELL
Current events surrounding trade tariffs on construction materials such as lumber, steel and aluminum will make it more difficult for builders to keep home prices down going forward. Despite absorbing a good portion of building cost increases over the years, a large jump in material costs mean something will have to give to keep new housing products affordable. That may be reflected in more high-density neighborhoods, fewer amenities, and smaller models.
By Elliott Pollack Elliott D. Pollack & Co.
By Michael Orr Principal of The Cromford Report
T
he residential resale market in Greater Phoenix has continued to favor sellers in 2018 and overall price trends have continued rising. For the overall market across Greater Phoenix, annual price trends since June 2017 are as follows according to Arizona Regional MLS sales:
The annual average price per square foot rose 7.7% from $145.79 to $157.06 Last Update: 1/1/2018 11:16:51 PM
50K
40K
30K
POPULATION 1.9% increase in 2018 1.9% increase in 2019
EMPLOYMENT 2.9% increase in 2018 2.7% increase in 2019
20K
10K
0K
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Maricopa
Pinal
SFR
Yavapai
Transaction Type
City
Aguila
HUD
75,071
87,920
93,511
2008
Anthem
REO
Apache Junction
Short
Arizona City
Normal
Arlington Avondale
Transaction Type HUD
Normal REO Short
58,384
55,229
60K
68,210
SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS 12% increase in 2018 10% increase in 2019
Hearing cries for more affordable housing supply, developers have sold more new homes in the low $200’s this year; selling 35% more than they did last year within the same time frame. However, the under $200,000 market remains neglected for additional supply. As of May 2018, only 6% of new homes sold were under $200,000 while 78% were between $200,000 and $500,000.
70K
62,346
RETAIL SALES 6.8% increase in 2018 6.7% increase in 2019
Sales volume has increased 2.6% from an annual rate of 94,537 to 96,965. The first half of 2018 is up 2.1% from the first half of 2017, however the 2nd Quarter of 2018 was only up 0.7% from the 2nd Quarter of 2017. At this rate, it doesn’t look promising for 2018 to outperform 2017 in transactional volume. Total dollar volume has increased 12% from $14.5B in the first half of 2017 to $16.2B in the first half of 2018, reflecting a significant increase in sales for all price ranges over $200,000. At this point 2018 has even outperformed the first half of 2005 in total dollar volume by $1.1B and could be positioned to outperform the 2005 record of $30.9B.
Source: Elliott D. Pollack & Co., July 2018
2007
90K
80K
Greater Phoenix Economic Forecast
2006
82,291
100K
2005
83,666
2004
87,728
The monthly median sales price gained 7.9% from $231,749 to $250,000 110K
County
Mobile
© 2016 Cromford Associates LLC - sharing is permitted from Cromford Report subscribers only
2003
99,527
2002
Condo
Greater Phoenix - ARMLS Residential - Measured Monthly
89,222
2001
Dwelling Type
Annual Sales Rate
91,042
The annual average sales price increased 8.8% from $287,093 to $312,390
53,131
There are always threats to expansions, especially ones this long. The possibility of a trade war is one example. The
Overall, the economic outlook for both the country and our local economy remains positive. The rest of 2018 and 2019 are likely to be periods of continued expansion. The head winds of increased tariffs and higher interest rates could affect the speed of the expansion, but are not likely to affect the positive direction of the economy.
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SALES
73,064
Other data suggesting that the expansion will continue include continued gains observed in the index of leading indicators, strong consumer confidence, a positively sloped yield curve (investors aren’t fleeing to the safety of U.S. Treasuries) and record levels of job openings. Given that this recovery/expansion is now the second longest in U.S. history, that is all good news. By this time next year, the expansion is likely to be the longest in U.S. history.
The local economy continues to move forward as well. Employment is still growing at a rate fast enough to put Greater Phoenix 7th out of the 34 major employment markets in the U.S. in percentage terms and 6th in the country in terms of absolute job gains. The unemployment rate in the Greater Phoenix area now stands at 3.4% compared to 4.1% a year ago. Given the growth in jobs, it is likely that population growth will modestly accelerate over the next year.
Residential Real Estate:
103,178
Also noteworthy for the economy, the Fed recently increased the Fed funds rate again. In fact, they believe that the economy is strong enough to allow increases in the interest rate over the next several quarters. Obviously, that is subject to change based on economic conditions. But, anticipate rising interest rates to continue over the next year.
Overall, we expect some type of compromise with all of our trading partners that will reduce trade tensions and stop or somewhat mitigate intellectual property theft. That will allow the expansion to continue. Given the massive stimulus of the tax cuts and the likely increase in government spending on infrastructure, the odds favor continued growth for the rest of 2018 and 2019.
Overall, sellers remain in good position going into the second half of 2018 as potential homebuyers struggle with low supply and increasing rents. The cost of rent per square foot rose 4.7% in the last 12 months on properties leased through the Arizona Regional MLS, pushing the median lease price to $1,450 in the 2nd Quarter of 2018. Going forward, home prices are projected to continue rising through the end of 2018.
97,634
In other good news, despite the combination of rapid increases in jobs and a low unemployment rate, wage rates have not yet ratcheted up significantly. This suggests that there is still some slack in the economy, likely in part from the labor participation rate, which is still low by historic standards. This, in turn, suggests that some discouraged workers are returning to the labor force.
term “trade war” is hardly ever defined. Tariffs, which are effectively an additional tax usually paid by the end consumer, will likely increase. Given the continuing U.S. trade deficit, the claim that the country is losing jobs because of this deficit is probably correct. However, whether or not there are enough job seekers to fill those potential jobs is open to question. Also, given that China has so much more to lose than the U.S. being so heavily reliant on exporting its goods to the U.S., it is doubtful that China wants an extended, full-blown trade war.
79,181
D
espite threats of higher tariffs on both exports and imports, the national economy continues to do well. The unemployment rate is now 3.6%, the lowest rate in almost 50 years. Job gains are not only rapid, but, they are happening across the board in every industry.
Flip sales, defined as homes purchased and re-sold within a 6-month period, are up 29% so far this year through May 2018. The growth in this segment is largely attributed to iBuyers more than doubling their output compared to last year. Tariffs will influence investors’ acquisition and renovation decisions as the costs for improvements such as new appliances, water heaters and HVAC units are affected.
Zip
Black Canyon Cit 85003 85004 85006 85007
Price Range
A. $0K to $25K
B. $25K to $50K C. $50K to $75K D. $75K to $100K E. $100K to $125K F. $125K to $150K G. $150K to $175K H. $175K to $200K I. $200K to $250K
85008 85009 85012 85013 85014 85015 85016 85017 85018
Year of Close Date 2000
J. $250K to $300K
2001
K. $300K to $400K
2002
L. $400K to $500K
2003
M. $500K to $600K
2004
N. $600K to $800K
2005
O. $800K to $1M
2006
85259.com
2
5
9
MPES
Ranked #24 Nationally for 2018
Rider Team Sells Scottsdale!
5
BETH
8
Community
Average Sale Price
Days on List/Sell # Market Price Ratio Closed
Ancala Clearwater Hills DC Ranch FireRock Gainey Ranch Grayhawk Kierland McDowell M. Ranch McCormick Ranch Silverleaf Troon (only) 85255
$1,192,221 171 97% $1,759,708 193 93% $1,121,224 144 97% $1,453,706 262 93% $970,118 89 95% $742,476 110 97% $462,367 127 98% $724,957 70 98% $636,681 60 97% $3,720,340 336 94% $965,200 195 96%
26 12 62 20 17 62 21 * 129 14 35 18
2018 SALES STATISTICS
BY COMMUNITY
MID-YEAR 2018
1/1/2018 - 7/1/2018
Statistics gathered from ARMLS. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. (Single-Family Residences) *Includes attached product.
METRO PHOENIX BY THE NUMBERS
$49,403 AVERAGE INCREASE IN SALE PRICE
BY CITY
2017
Glendale
$253,137
$270,212
Phoenix
$297,023
$319,498
Mesa
$277,633
$300,561
Peoria
$306,181
$327,151
Litchfield Park
$339,727
$356,526
Tempe
$317,249
$345,642
Gilbert
$339,386
$361,179
Chandler
$343,813
$367,967
Cave Creek
$490,740
$524,155
Fountain Hills
$527,217
$570,027
Scottsdale
$683,200
$744,593
Carefree
$857,812
$900,649
Paradise Valley
$1,820,556
$2,107,756
MID 2018
BethRider azEliteTeam.com
BethRider@kw.com
602.315.8749
15333 N. Pima Rd. Suite 130 Scottsdale, AZ 85260 Each office independently owned and operated.
Call Beth Rider today if you would like to sell your home faster and for top dollar! If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing.
Produced by DLP Marketing • (480)460-0996 • DLPmarketing.com
Presented By
BETH RIDER