JON MIRMELLI REAL ESTATE GROUP
MARKET UPDATE
October 2022
JUST SOLD! OVER 20 INQUIRIES FIRST DAYS ON THE MARKET SECURED OVER ASKING OFFER
Just Sold Fairways
11650 N 40TH PL | Phoenix, AZ 85028 $745,000 - See back page for details.
E GROU AT
Jon Mirmelli 602.300.1900
JM
AL ES T RE
PRESENTED BY
JON M MELLI IR
P
I
nventory growth slowing as pending and closed sales start to stabilize:
As of 9/17 there were 16,050 active and coming soon listings in our MLS system in Maricopa County, an increase of 4.2% over the past 30 days, 6,480 homes under contract, a slight reduction of 3.6% over the same period and closed sales inched higher to 5,030 closings, up 1.6%. Over the past 30 days +/we have noticed a reduction of inventory being added (last newsletter noted a 44% increase in active listings from Mid-June 22 to Mid-August 22). We are also noticing that sales prices have been coming down with price reductions on a lot of listings, but pricing seems to be stabilizing. Note the chart to the right. Overall, demand is down, but good homes are still selling well and the homes that are most likely to have longer days on market were either overpriced from the beginning or are not cosmetically up to par and/or have lot conditions that make them unattractive options. Buyers aren’t buying the rotten apples with more homes to pick from unless they are priced accordingly.
For our most recent listings, including the home featured in this newsletter, we successfully have sold our homes within the first week of market and have gotten top dollar for our selling clients. Strategic pricing, marketing and communication with our sellers Search has proven effective.
Interest rates go up over the past 30 days: Over the past 30 days interest rates have accelerated above 6% for conventional mortgages (approximately 30 Year Mortgage Rate WATCHLIST 75 basis points higher than the previous month). In prior months, we noted that when interest rates rose above 6.02% for Wk of Sep 15 2022 5% the demand starting dropping quickly and new inventory was outpacing sales. Case in point, if a buyer can afford a $3,500 monthly mortgage payment when interest rates were at 3% (January 2022) the buyer could qualify for a loan of $850,000. Today, that same $3,500 monthly mortgage payment will only qualify the buyer to Overview Interactive Chart borrow $590,000 – a 30% reduction in purchasing power. Interesting timing, but the conventional loan limits in Maricopa County were just increased to $715,000 from $647,200 for 2023. A benefit for conventional loans are less rigid underwriting loans are currently Level Chart requirements that typically hit self-employed borrowers. The Jumbo VIEW FULL CHART approximately 75 basis points less expensive than conventional mortgages. 1D
5D
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
5Y
10Y
MAX 6.00%
6.02%
4.80%
OCT '21
JAN '22
APR '22
JUL '22
Where do we go from here to wrap up the year? It seems like the overall market will go as the Fed goes with interest rate policy as a market overall, but the pricier markets like Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, Fountain Hills and Cave Creek / Carefree should be less effected by interest rate changes as they have a greater percentage of cash buyer interest. Also, there are many buyers that were on the sidelines the past two years waiting to purchase and they were unwilling to participate in the frenzy. Our buying clients are watching new inventory with us each day and we are really busy working to get them the home they have been longing for. At the same time, owners that purchased over the past two years or refinanced when rates were sub 3% +/- seem to be happy and comfortable and we don’t anticipate a surge of new listings and anticipate the sellers will be “need to sell” situations. We are at the tail end of our summer and our best weather is coming in the next 30 days where Arizona will soon be hosting many big events including The WM Phoenix Open Feb 6 – 12, Super Bowl LVII Feb 12th, the Arabian Horse show Feb Basic16 Info– 26 and Spring Training begins Feb 24th.
Please call on us if you would like to review your current home valuation and/or if you want to considerThe any new purchases. Werate appreciate your 30 Year Mortgage Rate is the xed interest that US home-buyers would trust pay if theyand were toyour take out areferrals. loan lasting 30 years. There are many different kinds of mortgages that homeowners can decide on which will have varying interest rates and monthly
Thank you, payments. Jon Mirmelli & Rebecca Ponte
30 Year Mortgage Rate is at 6.02%, compared to 5.89% last week and 2.88% last year. This is lower than the long term average of 7.76%.
7/17/22 – 8/17/22
VS. SEP 2022 8/17/22 – 9/17/22
# OF CLOSED LISTINGS
CAVE CREEK/CAREFREE` 85331
51
SCOTTSDALE 85266
HOMES RECENTLY SOLD
AUG 2022
ZIP
85262
21
42
54
19
29
JM
PRESENTED BY
Jon Mirmelli Real Estate Group
AVERAGE SOLD PRICE $898,204
AVERAGE SALE/ LIST PRICE
937,279
$1,515,611
$1,869,036
98%
$1,523,854
96%
$1,867,549
97%
98% 95%
94%
AL ES T RE
CLOSED
E GROU AT
MARKET WATCH
AVERAGE $/SQFT $348.75 $460.82
$481.42
JON M MELLI IR
P
AVERAGE DOM
$365.91 $434.60
$474.00
55
56
50
48
94
91
85255 85254 85260 85259 85258 85250 85251 85257
76 68 57 43 53 31 70 38
63 77 59 44 42 43 75 34
$1,670,281 $919,192 $894,082 $1,170,962 $939,543 $599,723 $702,539 $565,720
$1,682,105 $945,709 $887,012 $1,180,581 $940,671 $686,326 $745,210 $541,162
97% 98% 98% 97% 97% 98% 98% 99%
97% 97% 97% 97% 96% 97% 97% 95%
$481.18 $402.02 $400.42 $414.30 $429.44 $368.64 $422.18 $388.73
$474.48 $387.62 $396.58 $427.96 $433.10 $407.12 $429.00 $349.17
43 29 33 34 39 31 36 32
59 45 42 48 50 40 51 45
85268
42
47
$871,929
$899,231
99%
98%
$376.60
$367.28
34
49
85253
22
28
$3,369,914
$3,473,679
94%
92%
$718.71
$632.10
57
71
85028 85016 85018
21 41 60
32 52 44
$812,333 $615,281 $1,191,064
$835,007 $667,886 $1,062,623
97% 96% 97%
98% 96% 96%
$363.53 $358.78 $489.14
$366.42 $365.04 $444.03
36 41 35
45 50 45
FOUNTAIN HILLS PARADISE VALLEY
PHOENIX/ARCADIA/BILTMORE
ZIP CODE MAP
54
SCOTTSDALE
29
19
homes closed
homes closed
homes closed
63
homes closed
77
homes closed
59
homes closed
44
homes closed
42
32
homes closed
homes closed
28
homes closed
52
homes closed
47
homes closed
43
homes closed
44
homes closed
75
homes closed
34
homes closed
The properties on this list have been listed/sold by various members of the MLS. If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing. Data reported is based upon sales information provided by the MLS as of Sep. 17, 2022. Data deemed to be reliable but not guaranteed. Each office is independently owned and operated.
LISTED
MARKET
WATCH
PRESENTED BY
Jon Mirmelli Real Estate Group
Jon Mirmelli Real Estate Group - Active, Pending, Closed
Need help selling your existing home or looking to buy? Please call Jon today! Referrals always appreciated.
JUST
LISTED
11650 N 40TH PL | Phoenix, AZ 85028 2 Beds | 2.5 Baths | 1,758 SQFT | $745,000
Fairways
B
eautifully maintained Stone Creek Golf Course home. 2 bedrooms plus den. Newer dual pane windows through out. Newer HVAC, Wood and tile floors. Newer kitchen appliances, cabinets with granite counters. Back yard has been landscaped with artificial turf. Outstanding and ''in demand'' neighborhood. Pickle Ball courts, Tennis courts, Heated Pool and Spa and community Ramada for neighborhood gatherings. 24 hour manned guard house at entry. Easy maintenance front yards are maintained by HOA. Homes are on a revolving paint schedule by HOA. Easy access to Freeways, shopping such as Whole Foods, Trader Joes, Sprouts, Frys. Community Park nearby with exercise trail. Near biking, hiking walking paths near or in the mountain preserve. Community referred to as The Springs.
If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing.
E GROU AT
JON M
JM
AL ES T RE
Rebecca Ponte | 602.390.7096
P
MELLI IR
Jon Mirmelli Real Estate Group
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