Kelly McLain | Orange Tree | Sept/Oct 2021 Digital Newsletter

SEPTEMBER | OCTOBER 2021

The Finishing Touch Rugs for Every Room

Pumpkin Spice Blondies GoodNes

EVENT CALENDAR SEPTEMBER | OCTOBER 2021

Fall Concert Series Scottsdale | Sept.11-Oct.23 ScottsdaleQuarter.com Saturday nights are full of music at Scottsdale Quarter. In its tenth year, this annual concert series invites the public to The Quad to mingle and listen to some of your favorite local bands.

Music styles range from country and rock to fusion and covers of ‘80s and ‘90s hits. Music is free from 5-7 p.m.

Ales on the Rails Clarkdale | Sept.14-Oct.31 VerdeCanyonrr.com Celebrate Oktoberfest with Verde Canyon Railroad’s Ales on the Rails. The tour highlights the best of Arizona craft beers from a wide range of local breweries.

Guests can sample flavors by the taste and by the glass as they enjoy the cool autumn weather.

Event tickets are good for a train ride, a logo beer glass and four beer tastings. Upgraded tickets include a patio lunch.

Fall Arizona Restaurant Week Phoenix | Sept.17-26 ArizonaRestaurantWeek.com One of the state’s most popular food events is back! Hosted by the Arizona Restaurant Association, this 10-day affair offers diners an opportunity to sample fine cuisine from various top-notch restaurants. Dishes include everything from Southwestern favorites to international fare.

Foodies will love the three-course meals and prixfixe menu options.

Red Rocks Music Festival Phoenix | Oct.2 RedRocksMusicFestival.com Showcasing extraordinary chamber music in Phoenix for 20 years, this music festival brings world-class artists to the metro area. October’s performance is a special selection from internationally acclaimed pianist Sandra Shapiro. Shapiro will perform at the Arizona Jewish Historical Society.

GET GROUNDED S

ometimes a room needs one finishing touch to pull the whole look together.

And often, that one piece is the perfect area rug to make a space spectacular. Here’s how to choose the best rug for your home and give it that undefinable designer look.

The most important thing to get right when selecting an area rug is the size. If you get this wrong, your whole room will somehow feel off. Ideally, the area rug will be large enough to cover the center of your space. In large open floor plans, a rug can anchor defined sitting areas. Think of the rug as the tablecloth when you are setting the table. If the rug is too small, the furniture can look wrong and the room can feel too large or too cramped. Prices of super-large rugs got you second guessing a bold choice? Consider layering a smaller, more expensive area rug over a larger less pricey one for a new look.

Next is color. If you have a monochromatic room of grays and whites, a muted rug will blend in nicely, allowing the eye to focus on artwork or furniture. Or opt for a statement rug. A vintage Turkish rug can offer up a pop of color and pattern to ground an all-white room. If your abode is very traditional, a colorful modern geometric rug can give it a fresh feel with just the right mix of old and new.

The texture of the rug is also key. Sisal and jute rugs remain popular as they are easy to keep clean in high-traffic areas and give a neat, casual vibe in more traditional settings. Low-pile Persian rugs are always chic and exude a vintage classy vibe to any space. And for those with small children, a funky thick-pile rug provides a soft spot to play.

Perhaps the biggest trend in area rugs today? Thin rugs that can be rolled up and tossed in the washing machine (the top layer adheres to a base layer that remains in place so the rug has a thick stable feel underfoot). Moroccan and chevron patterns are still popular as well, providing a global vibe to any simple space. Aged antique rugs—as well as new versions faded to have that bohemian look—are also popping up everywhere, from hallways to kitchens.

With endless options, this is truly the age of area rugs.

Monster Mash Dash Virtual | October VirtualRunEvents.com Get moving for a good cause with this virtual race. Runners at every level can choose to enter in distances of 1 Mile, 5K and 10K. Throughout October, races can be completed anywhere, whether that be a neighborhood park, a local gym or on a home treadmill. At least 20 percent of each fee will benefit The Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson’s Research.

REAL ESTATE

corner

THE 7 TYPES OF SELF-CARE S

interactions that are draining. If you feel burnt out, you probably need social rest.

elf-care is more than just a trend – it’s an important part of living a balanced life. When you’re creating your wellness routine, consider the seven types of rest you require and choose activities that meet each need.

5) SENSORY REST – Your mind is constantly stimulated by bright lights, computer screens and multiple conversations across different platforms. Give yourself a digital detox if the electronic noise of day-to-day life is starting to wear on you. Starting and ending the day with 15 minutes of device-free time can make a significant difference to your feeling of wellbeing.

1) PHYSICAL REST – Plain and simple, your body needs restful sleep to function properly. Gentle physical activity such as stretching or restorative yoga can also count as physical rest. Focus on letting your body recover, especially if you’re feeling extra exhausted or run down.

2) MENTAL REST – Give your brain a break from racing thoughts and full schedules. If you have trouble falling asleep, try jotting down all your thoughts before you go to bed. Stepping away from a tedious task for some fresh air can give your brain the boost it needs to be most productive moving forward.

3) EMOTIONAL REST – Being honest about your feelings and your boundaries is key. It’s easy to fall into people-pleasing when colleagues, peers or family depend on you. The best way to show up for those people is to know when you need a break, and to take it before you’re depleted.

IN GOOD TASTE

4) SOCIAL REST – For some, this means giving energy to revitalizing and rewarding social events, such as connecting with good friends.

For others, this means taking a break altogether to recuperate from

6) CREATIVE REST – Take a break from expectation, particularly if you’re working on problem-solving or brainstorming. The idea is the same as when you want to recall something but can’t seem to. The more you focus on remembering, the harder it is. When you finally move on, your brain is free to do its thing and usually finds the answer you were looking for. Trust ideas will come to you after a small time-out.

7) SPIRITUAL REST – Connect to something larger than yourself, whether that means religion, community or whatever relates you to life’s bigger picture. Spend time in prayer or meditation, volunteer at a local shelter or take a quiet walk through nature. If you’re feeling stuck or overwhelmed with personal issues, it may be time for some spiritual rest.

PUMPKIN SPICE BLONDIES INGREDIENTS 2 cups

Packed brown sugar

3 cups

All-purpose flour

1/2 cup

Butter

1 tsp

Baking powder

1/2 cup

Pure Pumpkin

1/2 tsp

Salt

2 large

Eggs

1/2 tsp

Ground nutmeg

1/2 cup

Pumpkin Spice Creamer

1/2 tsp

Ground cinnamon

1 1/2 cups

Premier White Morsels

DIRECTIONS Preheat oven to 350° F. Heat sugar and butter in a medium saucepan over medium heat until melted and smooth; remove from heat. Whisk in pumpkin, creamer, Pumpkin Spice Flavor Liquid and eggs.

Pour pumpkin mixture into flour mixture; mix until combined. Pour into 13 x 9-inch baking pan.

Bake for 28 to 30 minutes or until wooden pick inserted in center comes out clean. Cool completely in pan on wire rack before slicing.

GoodNes.com

KELLY McLAIN

ORAN

realtor® | 602.625.4653 | mclainjk@aol.com

“

THE #1 AGENT FOR THE

ORANGE TREE & EQUESTRIAN

Orange Tree Active & Pending Listings

MANOR AREA WITH OVER

”

100 TRANSACTIONS! kellymclain.com

CANDIS CREEL, Account Manager

602.697.0232 | ccreel@atsaaz.com “My team and I have had the awesome pleasure of working alongside Kelly McLain for nearly 10 years now. He is truly one of the most loyal, dedicated and knowledgeable Realtors with whom we’ve ever worked! His clients are very privileged to have him represent them, especially in a challenging market. We feel honored to handle the escrow transactions and would highly recommend him to anyone looking to buy or sell a home!”

W

e are starting to see inventories rise in and around Orange Tree, this trend looks like it should continue as sellers realize the frenzy is slowing. Below is a snap shot of the entire inventory and averages for Maricopa county, keep in mind a balanced inventory of properties for sale is between 28,000 to 32,000 properties, we remain way below that level but as you can see inventory continues to go up.

This Year Active Listings 7,105

Last Year 16.2% 8,477

Pending Listings

7,236

4.2%

Under Contract Listings

11,044

10.4%

Monthly Sales

9,131

13.4%

7,550

Last Month 24.7% 5,699 0.8%

7,294

12,332

2.9%

11,378

10,544

10.3%

10,179

Monthly Average $ per sq.ft. $250.93

31.2% $191.21

0.5% $252.15

Monthly Median Sales Price $400,000

27% $315,000

.08% $397,000

Supply continues to move higher. We would usually consider a 24.7% increase in one month to be an exceptional growth rate.

However, we are rising from a very low point and the number of active listings without a contract is still down 75% from what would be considered normal. We are witnessing new listings arrive at a faster rate than we usually see at this time of year, especially those priced between $400,000 and $1 million. This is helping buyers, but there are still far more buyers than homes for sale.

I still read articles describing demand as exceptionally strong. This is absurd. Demand is only slightly above normal and has been getting weaker over the last several months. This is obvious both from the pending and under contract counts (down compared with last month and last year). and from the monthly sales counts (down compared with last month and last year). If demand were strong, then all these numbers should be responding to the increase in supply. They are not.

The large majority of market commentators have not grasped that demand is not the issue. Interest rates are not the issue either.

If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing.

Address ACTIVE 6001 E Larkspur Dr 12246 N 59th St 10616 N 60th Pl 12031 N 53rd St 12249 N 61st Pl 10462 N 60th Pl 6002 E Corrine Dr 5540 E Corrine Dr 11636 N Blackheath Rd 12007 N 62nd Pl 6341 E Sunnyside Dr 5437 E Cortez Dr 6324 E Gold Dust Ave PENDING 5506 E Paradise Dr 5429 E Wethersfield Rd 5224 E Shaw Butte Dr 6235 E Charter Oak Rd 5222 E Windrose Dr 11660 N Saint Andrews Way 6021 E Cortez Dr 5449 E Cortez Dr

BED

BATH

SQFT List Price

Neighborhood

4 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 7 6 7

2 3 2 2.5 3 2.5 4 3 3 3.5 6.5 7 7.5

2,344 2,352 2,608 2,712 2,290 3,076 3,612 3,350 4,881 3,911 6,300 5,970 5,510

$899,000 $935,000 $949,900 $1,150,000 $1,195,000 $1,295,000 $1,500,000 $1,600,000 $1,975,000 $1,995,000 $2,495,000 $3,150,000 $3,950,000

Avant Avant Sunburst Farms Woodleaf Avant Tierra Feliz Avant Rancho Saguaro Century Club Estates Equestrian Manor Arabian Green Vista Hermosa Sunburst Farms

2 3 4 4 5 6 3 5

2 2 2.5 3.5 4.5 4.5 3.5 4

1,760 2,231 3,003 3,008 4,669 6,496 5,231 5,296

$595,000 $875,000 $1,100,000 $1,400,000 $1,695,000 $2,500,000 $2,750,000 $2,975,000

Orange Tree Villas Rancho Saguaro Woodleaf Shea North Sunburst Farms Century Club Estates Equestrian Manor Vista Hermosa

All information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Properties on this list have been listed/sold by various members of the MLS.

Everything today is about supply. Even after a rise of almost 25% there is nowhere near enough supply to take the stress out of the market.

Over the last year, prices have not been rising because of strong demand or low interest rate, as often stated by the media. They have been rising because of extremely poor supply. Buyers do not pay more for a home because they can. They pay more because they have to. Multiple bids make them pay more, unless they drop out. Low interest rates merely allow them to compete. If there were more homes for sale, they would get the home for less than the asking price. During July & August the average buyer had to pay 1.4% over the asking price.

New home builders currently experience elevated demand because so many buyers have given up on trying to find a re-sale property. But the demand they perceive is due to the low supply of re-sale homes, not some unusual build up of buyer demand. The new and re-sale markets are not really separate because almost every buyer can switch from one to the other based on personal decisions. Buyers are spilling over to the new home market that would normally have chosen a resale home.

The market remains hot but has been cooling for 4 months now and this is reflected in a large array of measurements. For example: • In June, buyers were paying 1.8% more than list price on average, well above the current 1.4% • The listing success rate is down to 89.3%, having peaked at 93.1% in May • The contract ratio is down to 155, having reached 332 in March Prices have been leveling off over the past month. This is consistent with the seasonal trend that weakens prices during the third quarter in most years. It is caused a by a slowdown in high end sales during the hottest months (May through September) We did not see that effect last year because of the lock-down, but this year we expect 3Q to be nothing like the explosive 2Q. There is still no long-term downward pressure on prices and this pressure is unlikely to emerge until supply rises much higher than current levels.

Please call me anytime for additional information, my last 5 sales all had at least 6 or more offers on each property, the seller remains in control, and working with the right agent will put more proceeds in your pocket at closing.

Kelly McLain

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