Counter-IED Report Winter 2021/22 - preview edition

ISSN 2050-6732 (Print) ISSN 2050-6740 (Online)

Counter-IED Report Winter 2021/22

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK TO HOLISTICALLY APPROACH INSTABILITY & INSECURITY LONE ACTOR TERRORISM: WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT RISKS AND THREATS? ISSUES RELATED TO ESTABLISHING CAUSES BEHIND TERRORIST ATTACKS: THE LIVERPOOL ATTACK CONUNDRUM DIPLOMATIC MISSIONS – CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER? THE BATA EXPLOSIONS: LESSONS LEARNED BOMB SUIT SURVIVABILITY EXPLAINED: THE IMPORTANCE OF BLAST TRIALS AND CRITICAL PERFORMANCE TESTING DRONE DELIVERED IEDS – HOW PREPARED IS THE WORLD? I&W NOTE: MEXICAN CARTEL DRONE IED BOMBLETS NOW APPEARING EAGLES IN PIGEON’S CLOTHING: USE OF EXPLOSIVE-LADEN DRONES BY SHIA MILITIAS IN IRAQ THE BLINDNESS OF THE WEST: OBSERVATIONS FROM TALIBAN INFLUENCE ACTIVITIES

REPORT CONTRIBUTORS

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ISSN 2050-6732 (Print) ISSN 2050-6740 (Online)

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CONTENTS

CONTENTS

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GARRETT METAL DETECTORS

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ICOR TECHNOLOGY

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AUNAV

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VIDISCO LTD

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FOREWORD

By Rob Hyde-Bales, Consulting Editor, Counter-IED Report

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3DX-RAY LTD

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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK TO HOLISTICALLY APPROACH INSTABILITY & INSECURITY

By Paul Amoroso, an explosive hazards specialist at Assessed Mitigation Options (AMO) consultancy

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COUNTER TERROR EXPO 2022

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LONE ACTOR TERRORISM: WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT RISKS AND THREATS?

By Dr Jonathan Kenyon, National Specialist Lead within the Interventions Services Counter-Terrorism Team for Her Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS), Dr Jens Binder, Senior Lecturer in Psychology at Nottingham Trent University and Dr Christopher Baker-Beall, Senior Lecturer in Crisis and Disaster Management at Bournemouth University’s Disaster Management Centre

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COUNTER-IED REPORT, Winter 2021/22

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CONTENTS

CONTENTS

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JOINT CIVIL & DOD CBRN SYMPOSIUM AND TECHNOLOGY SHOWCASE 2022

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ISSUES RELATED TO ESTABLISHING CAUSES BEHIND TERRORIST ATTACKS: THE LIVERPOOL ATTACK CONUNDRUM

By Dr David Lowe, Leeds Law School at Leeds Beckett University

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EUROSATORY 2022

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DIPLOMATIC MISSIONS – CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER?

By Vincent Deery, Sales and Marketing Director at 3DX-Ray Ltd

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MILIPOL ASIA-PACIFIC 2022

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THE BATA EXPLOSIONS: LESSONS LEARNED

By Frederic Maio Programme Manager and staff of Ammunition Management Advisory Team (AMAT) at the Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining (GICHD)

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BOMB SUIT SURVIVABILITY EXPLAINED: THE IMPORTANCE OF BLAST TRIALS AND CRITICAL PERFORMANCE TESTING

By Joe English, Lead EOD Engineer and Product Manager for NP Aerospace and Siti Pareti, formerly Counter-Explosive Ordnance Adviser, UK Defence and Security Exports, Department for International Trade

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COUNTER-IED REPORT, Winter 2021/22

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CONTENTS

CONTENTS

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DEFENSE & SECURITY 2022

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DRONE DELIVERED IEDs – HOW PREPARED IS THE WORLD?

By Colonel H R Naidu Gade - Indian Army Veteran

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I&W NOTE: MEXICAN CARTEL DRONE IED BOMBLETS NOW APPEARING

By Robert J. Bunker and David A. Kuhn, C/O Futures, LLC

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EAGLES IN PIGEON’S CLOTHING: USE OF EXPLOSIVE-LADEN DRONES

BY SHIA MILITIAS IN IRAQ

By Lieutenant Colonel Jose M Rufas, Chief of Attack the Networks Branch, C-IED Centre of Excellence

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THE BLINDNESS OF THE WEST: OBSERVATIONS FROM TALIBAN INFLUENCE ACTIVITIES

By Lieutenant Colonel Jose M Rufas, Chief of Attack the Networks Branch, C-IED Centre of Excellence

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POLSECURE 2022

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FOREWORD

FOREWORD

By Rob Hyde-Bales, Consulting Editor, Counter-IED Report

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021 like 2020 was defined by the Covid-19 pandemic. In early January this year the total number of global cases stood at more than 303 million including some 5.48 million deaths. The United States has recorded more than 835 thousand deaths and the United Kingdom more than 150 thousand. Of increasing concern globally is the exponential increase in the Covid-19 Omicron variant with numerous countries imposing new restrictions to contain the spread of this variant.

Undoubtedly the major setback for the international community in 2021 was the implosion of Afghanistan following the rapid departure of Western Forces in August and the subsequent takeover of the country by the Taliban, which resulted in a complete national breakdown. The economy has collapsed, unemployment is nationwide, starvation is rife, and people have resorted to selling their children to buy food. Hospitals are unable to operate without the requisite medical supplies and schooling for children is at a virtual standstill as teachers have not been paid since August.

All of this is a very far cry from the hopes and aspirations that the West had for the country during their occupation from 2001 until 2021 and to which they had devoted massive investment in terms of economic aid, military and technical assistance. The long running war exacted a terrible toll in the deaths and injuries of both the Afghan

currently in place. Ukraine has long been a source of tension between Russia and the West as the government in Ukraine moves politically ever closer to the West. An abiding fear of President Putin is the risk, as he sees it, of Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO. Having witnessed several other former members of the Soviet Union do this, it is likely that Putin regards this possibility as a red line. Recently Putin asked for a guarantee from the US White House that this would not happen – a guarantee that the White House is not is a position to honour. Other tensions with Moscow include the delay in certification of the Nord Stream 2 undersea gas pipeline to the West and the issue of migrants on the border between Belarus and Poland.

In terms of international security, the US State Department issued on 16 December its Country Reports on Terrorism 2020 in which it states that terrorist groups remained “a persistent and pervasive threat worldwide”.

Islamic State killed more people in 2020 than in any previous year and recently stated that the Covid pandemic resulted “From God’s wrath upon the West”.

Senior Al-Qaeda officials remain in Iran and facilitate terrorist attacks from there. Its numerous affiliated networks continue to exploit under-governed spaces and conflict zones, particularly in the Middle East and Africa, and are among the most active and dangerous groups in the world. Iran has continued to provide

people and foreign militaries.

Internationally, tensions have increased as Russia has massed troops along its border with Ukraine – estimates range of more than 100,000 combat troops

practical support to its sponsored militias, as well as Hezbollah and Hamas. Globally, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force remained the primary Iranian actors involved in supporting terrorist

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FOREWORD

recruitment, financing, and plots across Europe, Africa, Asia, and both Americas.

Paul Amoroso of Assessed Mitigation Options consultancy in his thought-provoking article uses the visual example of a Tree of Instability and Insecurity to describe how an organisation operating within an IED environment can holistically address the IED threat. He uses the example of this Tree as a conceptual framework to show how the elements of strategic vision, operational plans, and tactical methods and actions can together constitute a holistic approach to an IED threat.

Using the analogy of the Tree of Instability and Insecurity he outlines some of the root causes leading to failed or fragile states. These include poor governance, food insecurity, repressive security forces and unemployment. In such environments radical and violent extremist organisations can capitalise on and exploit these root causes for their own agendas. Such actions may result in an array of stability and security challenges that manifest themselves to include pervasive criminality, armed conflict, terrorism and the use of IEDs. He opines that a holistic approach to the problem of IEDs requires the three components of the Tree of Instability and Insecurity to be addressed – the roots – root causes of the problems, the trunk depicted as violent and extremist organisations and the branches – the manifestation of security and stability challenges.

US, the main religious cause has been the extremist Islamist cause as espoused by Al Qaeda and the Islamic State. The former’s ideology was responsible for the London Underground bombings in 2005 and the latter for the Manchester Arena bombing of 2017. Both terrorist groups wish to establish an Islamic Caliphate based on a strict interpretation of Sunni Islam and Sharia law. In relation to political causes the best- known example in the UK is that of Irish dissident republican groups and various manifestations of the IRA who seek a unified island of Ireland – north and south comprising the thirty-two counties and the end to British rule in the north. Of the assessed main causes for terrorism, the ideological rationale is the most challenging to define.

The reason for this is the manifold professed ideological causes. The bizarre nature of these causes is exemplified by the so-called incel movement – a selfprofessed, involuntary celibate group of misogynistic males angry at the sexual revolution that has, in their view, resulted in promiscuous and manipulative females.

The difficulty in defining a specific ideological cause results in the regular use of the term “unclear ideology” when describing a subject of interest.

In an informative article on the emerging use of Mexican cartel drone delivered IED bomblets, Robert J. Bunker and David A. Kuhn, C/O Futures, LLC, describe the progression from single use – point IED detonation-

In his topical article Dr David Lowe of Leeds Law School examines issues behind the causes of terrorist attacks against the backdrop of the IED attack by Emad al-Swealmeen outside the Liverpool Women’s Hospital on 14 November last year. During the subsequent investigation, the regional Counter-Terrorist (CT) unit struggled to ascertain the cause behind the attack. AlSwealmeen was born Muslim but converted to Christianity in the UK where he was seeking asylum, but his application was rejected. Dr Lowe’s article examines the main causes behind terrorist attacks and the increasing difficulty for CT specialists to define the cause. The UK Terrorism Act 2000 states that a terrorist act occurs where the action or the threat of action is used for the purpose of advancing a religious, political, ideological, or racial cause. In terms of religious motivation, since the 9/11 2001 Al Qaeda attacks in the

drones to multi-use aerial bombardment drones during 2021. This emerging capability has been employed by one of the most dominant and operationally advanced cartels in the country, Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG). They describe four incidents demonstrating this emerging capability. In the first incident in March 2021, seven IED bomblets were seized by the security forces after a firefight with assumed CJNG gunmen. The bomblets represented the most sophisticated type seized to date. Certain features in the bomblets indicated that the makers are receiving skilled technical assistance during manufacture. In the second incident in September 2021 after an incident between the security forces and CJNG elements a significant cache of ordnance and associated equipment was seized including seventeen improvised aerial drone bomblets. Again, in November 2021 the Army seized a

12 COUNTER-IED REPORT, Winter 2021/22

FOREWORD

further cache of ordnance including seven IED bomblets. The final incident in September 2021 comprised a series of screen shots taken from a CJNG video posted on their social media. It shows a Mexican cartel drone engaging in an aerial bombardment operation. Such videos are designed to engender fear and a strong psychological effect on the local population engaged in supporting militias defending territory against CJNG encroachment. The authors foresee a technical evolution in CJNG aerial bomblet production, resulting in ever increasing sophistication and the danger that this trend is likely to spread to other cartels.

In an instructive article, Vincent Deery of 3DX-Ray Ltd. examines the potential dangers faced by embassies and other diplomatic missions around the globe. Such missions can be highly vulnerable, given that they represent foreign territory situated in the heart of a sovereign state. Such diplomatic missions consist of more than just embassies. The UK for example maintains 85 embassy satellite offices and consulates in non-capital cities around the world. Such missions are responsible for their own security up to their physical perimeter. Beyond that, it is the responsibility of the host nation, which can have its own problems and challenges. The author describes the potential security weak link in all diplomatic missions – the postal system – which permits the possible entry of harmful

trials and other critical performance testing procedures on bomb disposal suits, which are the last line of defence against blast and fragmentation. Blast trials on NP Aerospace’s new 4030 ELITE bomb disposal suit against four internationally recognised scenarios are outlined. Blast can cause devastating effects on the human body in terms of rapidly increasing overpressure, fragmentation, heat, and flame. Bomb disposal suit manufacturers must be aware of these effects and accordingly undertake rigorous and extensive testing.

Live explosive blast trials offer the most realistic way to replicate real life EOD or IEDD scenarios. In these trials, conducted in both the UK and the US, NP Aerospace uses scientifically sophisticated Anthropomorphic Test Devices or “crash test dummies” to assess the level of protection provided by the 4030 ELITE PPE against both C4 and PE4 plastic explosives. The 4030 ELITE suit provides substantial reduction in blast overpressure on the chest and ears and critical head injuries. Other performance tests cover fragmentation, spine protection, heat and flame protection, optical performance, buoyancy, and ergonomics. ■

substances or devices into the mission. He goes on to describe a screening product of 3DX-Ray Ltd., the AXIS™-CXi, cabinet-based x-ray screening system, which uses a colour differentiating screening process as used in airport baggage screening. This permits the operator to determine the shape and nature of the item being screened. Orange denotes organics such as explosives, blue shows metals such as firearms and IED components, green describes inorganics such as HME component materials, and finally grey defines the shape and form of the mail contents. The AXIS™-CXi x-ray screening system is mobile and user friendly and represents a key component in the security of global diplomatic missions.

In a technically detailed article, Joe English of NP Aerospace and advanced EOD operator Siti Pareti of the British Army describe the crucial importance of blast

in Libya and, more latterly, Afghanistan in the running of the first United Nations humanitarian landmine clearance training programme – Operation Salam. The programme trained Afghan male refugees in landmine clearance techniques, and Afghan women and children in mine awareness and avoidance training. More recently he set up the Caribbean Search Centre in Kingston, Jamaica. The Centre is designed to train security forces across the Caribbean in modern search techniques. After retiring from the army he joined Cranfield University at Shrivenham, near Oxford, and

Rob Hyde-Bales biography During his career in the UK Royal Engineers, Rob Hyde-Bales was responsible for landmine clearance

undertook a research project on behalf of the UK Ministry of Defence that examined ways to improve the sharing of IED threat information between the military and civilian organisations in hazardous areas.

counteriedreport.com 13

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