Dean Badessa San Francisco Market Update | Q3 2015

San Francisco, CA

San Francisco Market Update Third Quarter 2015 Dean Badessa SAN FRANCISCO BROKERAGE 117 Greenwich Street San Francisco, CA 94111 t. 415.474.5140

deanbadessa.com All data within this document is pulled from the San Francisco MLS.

A MESSAGE FROM: DEAN BADESSA Following a robust first half of the year, tight inventory and a continued rise in the average sales price throughout San Francisco dominated the real estate landscape in the third quarter of 2015, according to our analysis of data from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service. Total sales of single-family homes and condominiums were down throughout San Francisco in Q3 2015 compared to the Q3 2014. Buyers reacted to the limited inventory in Q3 2015 by continuing to drive the average sales price up. Listings were not on the market long; a single-family home on the market in Q3 2015 closed in an average of 26 days and condominiums also saw a decreased timeframe on market, lasting an average of only 30 days.

Dean Badessa SAN FRANCISCO BROKERAGE 117 Greenwich Street San Francisco, CA 94111 t. 415.901.1715 | c. 415.474.5140

The average sales price of a single-family home across San Francisco climbed 13.6 percent from Q3 2014 to Q3 2015. In fact, certain Districts experienced more than a 20 percent increase in average sales price; including District 4 (26.8 percent), District 9 (23.3 percent), and Districts 7 and 8 (27.7 percent). Although the total number of sales in the City fell overall, each District saw different results. Some areas, like Districts 7 and 8, saw a 41.4 percent drop in total single-family homes sold from 29 units in Q3 2014 to 17 units in Q3 2015. By contrast, over twice as many single-family homes were sold in District 6, from 6 units sold in Q3 2014 to 14 units sold in Q3 2015. sothebyshomes.com/sanfrancisco

Q3 TOTAL CLOSED SALES (SINGLE FAMILY HOMES) 2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

626

638

705

612

571

DISTRICT 1

48

49

60

58

48

DISTRICT 4

64

74

78

69

82

DISTRICT 5

78

97

93

71

69

DISTRICT 6

3

8

12

6

14

DISTRICTS 7 AND 8

33

21

36

29

17

DISTRICT 9

64

70

70

69

64

SAN FRANCISCO (TOTAL)

800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source: SFARMLS - July 1-September 30 each year.

Q3 TOTAL CLOSED SALES (CONDOS) 1000

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

664

828

873

784

659

DISTRICT 1

40

39

45

54

45

DISTRICT 4

10

10

14

11

18

DISTRICT 5

115

109

130

105

90

DISTRICT 6

60

88

89

79

65

DISTRICTS 7 AND 8

191

229

233

201

172

DISTRICT 9

214

305

326

298

227

SAN FRANCISCO (TOTAL)

900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source: SFARMLS - July 1-September 30 each year.

Sotheby’s International Realty and the Sotheby’s International Realty logo are registered (or unregistered) service marks used with permission. Operated by Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. If your property is listed with a real estate broker, please disregard. It is not our intention to solicit the offerings of other real estate brokers. We are happy to work with them and cooperate fully. Real estate agents affiliated with Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. are independent contractor sales associates and are not employees of Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc.

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DISTRICT 1

SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES ABOUT DISTRICT 1 Also known as the Richmond District, District 1 is nestled on the Northwest corner of San Francisco. Home to many distinct neighborhoods, including Jordan Park, Lake, Laurel Heights, Outer Richmond, Central Richmond, Inner Richmond, and Sea Cliff, the district borders both the Golden Gate Park and the Pacific Ocean. In District 1, residents and visitors alike can enjoy some fun in the park, or sit back and gaze upon the vast ocean.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$2,000,000

70

$1,800,000 60

$1,600,000 $1,400,000

50

$1,200,000 40

$1,000,000

30

$800,000 $600,000

20

$400,000 10

$200,000 $-

2011

2012

San Francisco

2013

2014

0

2015

2011

District 1

2012

2013

2014

San Francisco

2015

District 1

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

% Change (2015 v 2014)

AVERAGE LIST PRICE

$1,162,170

$1,371,510

$1,339,550

$1,451,233

$1,535,325

5.8%

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE

$1,165,000

$1,415,380

$1,441,654

$1,638,088

$1,771,029

8.1%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

66

39

33

24

23

-4.0%

TOTAL SINGLE FAMILY HOMES SOLD

48

49

60

58

48

-17.2%

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES | Q3

SERVING SAN FRANCISCO, MARIN, THE PENINSULA AND EAST BAY sothebyshomes.com/sanfrancisco

4

DISTRICT 1

CONDOMINIUM SALES Q3 MARKET OVERVIEW

In Q3 2015, District 1 continued to mirror citywide averages. In the last few years, the average sales price for a single family home in District 1 has steadily increased. Staying right above the City, the average went from $1,638,088 in Q3 2014 to $1,771,029 in Q3 2015, an 8.1 percent increase. While slightly below the national average, the average sales price for a condominium also increased. In Q3 2014, the average sales price for a condominium was just below $1 million, at $976,361. In Q3 2015, the average increased 13.8 percent to $1,111,093. Low inventory may have contributed to higher sales prices, as total units sold were down for both single family homes and condominiums. 48 single family homes were sold in Q3 2015, a 17.2 percent decrease from the 58 units that were sold in Q3 2014. Condominiums also experienced a similar 16.7 percent drop; from 54 units sold in Q3 2014 to 45 units in Q3 2015.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$1,400,000

100 90

$1,200,000

80 $1,000,000

70 60

$800,000

50 $600,000

40 30

$400,000

20

$200,000

10 $-

2011

2012

San Francisco

2013

2014

0

2015

2011

District 1

2012

2013

San Francisco

2014

2015

District 1

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

% Change (2015 v 2014)

AVERAGE LIST PRICE

$680,494

$768,923

$828,511

$893,981

$1,019,667

14.1%

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE

$673,458

$784,397

$890,222

$976,361

$1,111,093

13.8%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

87

61

32

33

30

-7.5%

TOTAL CONDOS SOLD

40

39

45

54

45

-16.7%

CONDOMINIUMS | Q3

5

DISTRICT 4

SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES ABOUT DISTRICT 4 District 4, also referred to as West of Twin Peaks is located in a heavily wooded and picturesque area of San Francisco. District 4 encompasses 16 neighborhoods: Balboa Terrace, Diamond Heights, Forest Hill, Forest Hill Extension, Forest Knolls, Ingleside Terrace, Midtown Terrace, Miraloma Park, Monterey Heights, Mount Davidson Manor, Sherwood Forest, St. Francis Wood, Sunnyside, West Portal, Westwood Highlands and Westwood Park.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$1,800,000

90

$1,600,000

80

$1,400,000

70

$1,200,000

60

$1,000,000

50

$800,000

40

$600,000

30

$400,000

20

$200,000 $-

10 2011

2012

San Francisco

2013

2014

0

2015

2011

District 4

2012

2013

San Francisco

2014

2015

District 4

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

% Change (2015 v 2014)

AVERAGE LIST PRICE

$1,057,315

$1,017,532

$1,160,460

$1,174,547

$1,474,412

25.5%

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE

$1,043,408

$1,064,429

$1,232,323

$1,326,423

$1,681,366

26.8%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

80

38

34

20

25

27.3%

TOTAL SINGLE FAMILY HOMES SOLD

64

74

78

69

82

18.8%

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES | Q3

SERVING SAN FRANCISCO, MARIN, THE PENINSULA AND EAST BAY sothebyshomes.com/sanfrancisco

6

DISTRICT 4

CONDOMINIUM SALES Q3 MARKET OVERVIEW

While total sales decreased in most areas of San Francisco, properties in District 4 experienced some of the highest total sales seen in the last few years. Total condominium sales jumped 63.6 percent, with 18 units sold in Q3 2015 compared to 11 units sold in Q3 2014. Total sales for single family homes were also up, leaping from 69 units sold in Q3 2014 to 82 homes sold in Q3 2015, an 18.8 percent increase. The number of sales didn’t deter buyers in District 4 from paying higher prices as the average sales price continued to grow. The average sales price for a single family home in District 4 increased 26.8 percent, one of the highest increases in the city. The average sales price for a condominium also continued to steadily grow, going from $678,059 in Q3 2014 to $741,796 Q3 2015. District 4 was also one of the few areas were the average days a single family home remained on the market went up, jumping from 20 days in Q3 2014 to 25 days in Q3 2015, a 27.3 percent increase.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$1,400,000

120

$1,200,000

100

$1,000,000

80

$800,000 60

$600,000 40

$400,000 20

$200,000

$-

0

2011

2012

San Francisco

2013

2014

2015

2011

District 4

2012

2013

2014

San Francisco

2015

District 4

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

% Change (2015 v 2014)

AVERAGE LIST PRICE

$441,178

$494,590

$549,807

$628,241

$709,351

12.9%

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE

$435,750

$505,800

$598,593

$678,059

$741,796

9.4%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

98

71

31

40

35

-13.5%

TOTAL CONDOS SOLD

10

10

14

11

18

63.6%

CONDOMINIUMS | Q3

7

DISTRICT 5

SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES ABOUT DISTRICT 5 District 5, commonly known as the Central District, is in the geographic center of San Francisco. The sunny region, with its charm and vitality, is popular with both tourists and residents. The district is home to the neighborhoods of Ashbury Heights, Buena Vista Park, Clarendon Heights, Corona Heights, Cole Valley, Castro, Dolores Heights, Duboce Triangle, Glen Park, Haight Ashbury, Noe Valley, Twin Peaks and Mission Dolores.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$2,500,000

70 60

$2,000,000

50

$1,500,000

40 30

$1,000,000

20

$500,000 10

$-

2011

2012

2013

2014

0

2015

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

San Francisco

District 5

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES | Q3

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

% Change (2015 v 2014)

AVERAGE LIST PRICE

$1,444,686

$1,580,771

$1,616,117

$1,828,579

$1,911,069

4.5%

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE

$1,444,705

$1,653,235

$1,780,828

$2,025,311

$2,209,164

9.1%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

48

35

26

27

20

-27.0%

TOTAL SINGLE FAMILY HOMES SOLD

78

97

93

71

69

-2.8%

San Francisco

SERVING SAN FRANCISCO, MARIN, THE PENINSULA AND EAST BAY sothebyshomes.com/sanfrancisco

District 5

8

DISTRICT 5

CONDOMINIUM SALES Q3 MARKET OVERVIEW

In District 5, a dwindling inventory contributed to a decrease in total sales for both single family homes and condominiums. The number of condominiums sold fell to 90 units sold in Q3 2015, the first time in the last few years that number has been below triple digits in the third quarter. The total number of single family homes sold also fell 2.8 percent in Q3 2015 compared to Q3 2014. With their options limited, buyers continued to drive the average sales price higher in the district. The average sales price for a condominium climbed 18.1 percent, going from $1,165,078 in Q3 2014 to $1,375,639 in Q3 2015. The average sales price for a single family home also grew from $2,025,311 in Q3 2014 to $2,209,164 in Q3 2015. Sellers in District 5 didn’t have their properties on the market for very long. The average days on market for a single family home fell from 27 days in Q3 2014 to 20 days in Q3 2015, and condominiums remained on the market an average of 29 days in Q3 2015.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$1,600,000

90

$1,400,000

80 70

$1,200,000

60

$1,000,000

50

$800,000

40

$600,000

30

$400,000

20 10

$200,000 $-

0

2011

2012

San Francisco

2013

2014

2015

2011

District 5

2012

2013

2014

San Francisco

2015

District 5

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

% Change (2015 v 2014)

AVERAGE LIST PRICE

$726,081

$884,048

$960,318

$1,036,014

$1,241,612

19.8%

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE

$728,359

$918,505

$1,053,542

$1,165,078

$1,375,639

18.1%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

64

41

32

32

29

-11.4%

TOTAL CONDOS SOLD

115

109

130

105

90

-14.3%

CONDOMINIUMS | Q3

9

DISTRICT 6

SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES ABOUT DISTRICT 6 District 6, also referred to as the Central North, is a vibrant area with easy access to public transportation, trendy boutiques, excellent restaurants and gorgeous City views. The neighborhoods that encompass District 6 include Alamo Square, Hayes Valley, Western Addition, Lower Pacific Heights, Anza Vista and North Panhandle (NoPa). Homes vary from stunning mansions and Victorian houses to quaint single family homes and chic condominiums.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$3,000,000

80 70

$2,500,000

60 $2,000,000 50 $1,500,000

40 30

$1,000,000

20 $500,000

$-

10 0 2011

2012

San Francisco

2013

2014

2015

2011

District 6

2012

2013

San Francisco

2014

2015

District 6

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

% Change (2015 v 2014)

AVERAGE LIST PRICE

$1,046,000

$1,656,000

$1,549,417

$2,198,167

$2,326,921

5.9%

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE

$1,010,000

$1,689,854

$1,658,000

$2,496,500

$2,546,786

2.0%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

74

47

49

17

22

34.6%

TOTAL SINGLE FAMILY HOMES SOLD

3

8

12

6

14

133.3%

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES | Q3

SERVING SAN FRANCISCO, MARIN, THE PENINSULA AND EAST BAY sothebyshomes.com/sanfrancisco

10

DISTRICT 6

CONDOMINIUM SALES Q3 MARKET OVERVIEW

The sales numbers in District 5 for single family homes and condominiums told two distinct stories in Q3 2015. Going against city wide trends, the total number of single family homes sold in the district moved up to 14 units in Q3 2015, and was one of the few areas in the City to experience an increase. This influx of more sales kept the average sales price relatively flat at $2,546,786 in Q3 2015, a slight 2 percent increase over Q3 2014. Single family homes stayed on the market for 17 days Q3 2014, the lowest average seen in the last few years. That number bounded back up to 22 days in Q3 2015. Unlike single family homes, the numbers for condominiums trended with the rest of the City. The total number of condominiums sold fell from 79 units in Q3 2014 to 65 units in Q3 2015. District 6 also had one of the largest gains in the average sales price of condominiums, jumping 31.1 percent from $875,475 in Q3 2014 to $1,147,985 in Q3 2015.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$1,400,000

90 80

$1,200,000

70 $1,000,000

60

$800,000

50 40

$600,000

30 $400,000

20 10

$200,000

0 $-

2011

2012

San Francisco

2013

2014

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2015

District 6

San Francisco

District 6

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

% Change (2015 v 2014)

AVERAGE LIST PRICE

$683,630

$700,604

$782,308

$798,451

$1,037,696

30.0%

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE

$672,113

$726,193

$838,497

$875,475

$1,147,985

31.1%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

85

56

35

28

27

-5.3%

TOTAL CONDOS SOLD

60

88

89

79

65

-17.7%

CONDOMINIUMS | Q3

11

DISTRICTS 7 and 8

SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES ABOUT DISTRICTS 7 and 8 Districts 7 and 8 host some of the most impressive homes in the city. District 7 includes Cow Hollow, the Marina, Pacific Heights and Presidio Heights neighborhoods. The Golden Gate Bridge and the San Francisco Bay are to the north and downtown is to the east, making it ideal for both work and recreation. District 8 includes the business and financial center of San Francisco and serves as a popular tourist destination. Residential neighborhoods include North Beach, Russian Hill, Nob Hill, Telegraph Hill and North Waterfront.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$6,000,000

80 70

$5,000,000

60

$4,000,000 50

$3,000,000

40 30

$2,000,000

20

$1,000,000

$-

10

2011

2012

San Francisco

2013

2014

0

2015

2011

Districts 7 & 8

2012

2013

San Francisco

2014

2015

Districts 7 & 8

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

% Change (2015 v 2014)

AVERAGE LIST PRICE

$3,371,727

$4,826,086

$5,221,139

$4,274,483

$5,400,118

26.3%

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE

$3,280,730

$4,438,949

$5,206,950

$4,328,582

$5,525,471

27.7%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

74

68

41

33

75

125.9%

TOTAL SINGLE FAMILY HOMES SOLD

33

21

36

29

17

-41.4%

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES | Q3

SERVING SAN FRANCISCO, MARIN, THE PENINSULA AND EAST BAY sothebyshomes.com/sanfrancisco

12

DISTRICTS 7 and 8

CONDOMINIUM SALES Q3 MARKET OVERVIEW

Low inventory in Districts 7 and 8 continued to decrease the total number of sales of single family homes and condominiums in Q3 2015. Single family homes experienced a considerable decrease with total sales falling from 29 units sold in Q3 2014 to 17 units sold in Q3 2015. This was a 41.4 percent decline year over year, and the lowest total seen in the last few years. Condominiums in the area also experienced a similar decrease in total sales numbers going from 201 units sold in Q3 2014 to 172 units sold in Q3 2015. Shorter sales totals may have led to an increase in the average sales price in the area. In Q3 2014, the average sales price for a single family home dipped to $4,328,582, but in Q3 2015 the price rebounded, climbing 27.7 percent to $5,525,471, one of the highest gains in the city. The average sales price for a condominium also rose, going from $1,287,623 in Q3 2014 to $1,369,737in Q3 2015.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$1,600,000

120

$1,400,000

100

$1,200,000 80

$1,000,000

60

$800,000 $600,000

40

$400,000 20

$200,000 $-

0

2011

2012

San Francisco

2013

2014

2015

2011

Districts 7 & 8

2012

2013

San Francisco

2014

2015

Districts 7 & 8

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

% Change (2015 v 2014)

AVERAGE LIST PRICE

$777,494

$916,955

$1,161,293

$1,232,360

$1,282,588

4.1%

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE

$756,517

$920,780

$1,195,463

$1,287,623

$1,369,737

6.4%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

96

65

39

36

29

-20.4%

TOTAL CONDOS SOLD

191

229

233

201

172

-14.4%

CONDOMINIUMS | Q3

13

DISTRICT 9

SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES ABOUT DISTRICT 9 District 9, the central-eastern portion of San Francisco includes the neighborhoods Bernal Heights, the Central Waterfront/Dogpatch, Inner Mission, Mission Bay, Potrero Hill, South Beach and South of Market (SoMa). The area includes some of the oldest homes in San Francisco, having escaped the 1906 earthquake and fire destruction.

District 9’s real estate includes cottages, bungalows and single-family homes in Bernal Heights and Potrero Hill, and warehouse-converted lofts and condominiums in SoMa, South Beach and Yerba Buena.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$1,800,000

70

$1,600,000 60

$1,400,000 $1,200,000

50

$1,000,000

40

$800,000

30

$600,000 20

$400,000

10

$200,000 $-

2011

2012

San Francisco

2013

2014

0

2015

2011

District 9

2012

2013

San Francisco

2014

2015

District 9

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

% Change (2015 v 2014)

AVERAGE LIST PRICE

$771,864

$810,257

$944,384

$1,091,113

$1,314,194

20.4%

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE

$775,668

$864,668

$1,071,980

$1,250,019

$1,540,905

23.3%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

57

43

31

27

22

-17.3%

TOTAL SINGLE FAMILY HOMES SOLD

64

70

70

69

64

-7.2%

SINGLE FAMILY HOMES | Q3

SERVING SAN FRANCISCO, MARIN, THE PENINSULA AND EAST BAY sothebyshomes.com/sanfrancisco

14

DISTRICT 9

CONDOMINIUM SALES Q3 MARKET OVERVIEW

Total sales were down in Q3 2015, but prices continued to climb in District 9. The average sales price for a single family home increased just above $1.5 million in Q3 2015, rising 23.3 percent above the average in Q3 2014. The average sales price for a condominium also rose to $1,124,880 in Q3 2015, a 7.8 percent increase from Q3 2014. Since 2012, total sales of single family home have hovered around 70 units sold in the third quarter, but that number fell to 64 units sold in Q3 2015, closer to the total presented in Q3 2011. Total sales of condominiums also fell from 298 units sold in Q3 2014 to 227 units sold in Q3 2015, a 23.8 percent decrease year over year, and one of the lowest percentage decreases in the city. Properties in District 9 didn’t stay on the market for very long. A single family home remained on the market an average of 22 days in Q3 2015, and a condominium stayed on the market an average 31 days in Q3 2015.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

$1,400,000

90 80

$1,200,000

70 $1,000,000

60

$800,000

50 40

$600,000

30 $400,000

20 10

$200,000

$-

0 2011

2012

San Francisco

2013

2014

2015

2011

District 9

2012

2013

2014

San Francisco

2015

District 9

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

% Change (2015 v 2014)

AVERAGE LIST PRICE

$672,232

$819,552

$839,692

$1,006,254

$1,053,432

4.7%

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE

$661,527

$815,000

$878,705

$1,043,291

$1,124,880

7.8%

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

70

49

36

34

31

-9.4%

TOTAL CONDOS SOLD

214

305

326

298

227

-23.8%

CONDOMINIUMS | Q3

15

AUCTION CALENDAR OCTOBER | NOVEMBER 2015 American Paintings, Drawings and Sculpture New York 02 Oct Modern and Contemporary Asian Art Evening Sale Hong Kong 04 Oct Photographs New York 07 Oct RM Sotheby’s: Hershey Hershey 08 – 09 Oct Property from a Distinguished Private Asian Collection New York 15 Oct Château Margaux 1900–2010 Direct From The Cellars: A Celebration of the Mentzelopoulos Era New York 17 Oct Collections: European Decorative Arts New York 17 Oct The Creative Genius of Sam Simon: A Lifetime of Memorabilia New York 22 Oct Impressionist & Modern Art Evening Sale New York 05 Nov Contemporary Art Evening Auction New York 11 Nov

American Art New York 18 Nov Latin America: Modern Art Latin America: Contemporary Art New York 19 – 20 Nov Prints & Multiples New York 23 – 24 Nov

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© 2015 Andy Warhol Foundation for the Visual Arts / Artists Rights Society (ARS), New York

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