Future Visitation Forecasts

14.2 Future Visitation Forecasts

A preliminary visitation forecast was developed for South Australian cruises, which is provided in Figure 11.

This is based on a continuing decline next year as a result of global geo-political uncertainty and related economic conditions, as well as falls in demand as a result of the recent fires (particularly on Kangaroo Island) and the Covid19 pandemic, which mean that the market will take time to fully recover.

Figure 11 Proposed SA Cruise Visits to 2070 (Black Quay, 2020)

14 South Australian Cruise Demand Cont.

This would represent a 52% increase between 2020 and 2030 (excluding the effects of Covid19). The Australian industry has been growing at approximately 20% per annum, and it is expected that this will continue for some time, dependent upon Covid-19.

If a full year is assumed for cruise visitation in 2030, this equates to 2 or 3 vessels per week, with this doubling by 2070. If we then consider an approximate split of vessels between Adelaide, Port Lincoln and Wallaroo and assuming a marginal share increase at Adelaide, we can see the forecast in the following table.

Figure 12 Proposed Port Split to 2070 (Black Quay, 2020)