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Liquid Bulk
12.2 Liquid Bulk
The majority of liquid bulk through South Australia consists of imported fuel, oil and gas products. For this reason, it is expected that these will drive the future vessel fleet and thus is the focus of liquid bulk trade, rather than non-fuel products.
Port Adelaide is a key hub for South Australian fuel imports, and therefore the capability of Port Adelaide to accommodate fuel ships is of paramount importance to the security of the State.
It is believed that the remaining Australian oil refineries will close down within the next decade as their cost effectiveness continues to reduce against competition from Asian refined product imports.
Whilst current refined product imports to South Australia are relatively stable, it is likely that future trade trends will match those of the global industry, although likely later in time.
As the world is forced towards reduction and potential elimination of fossil fuel use, this would include a reduction in oil related imports to South Australia at some stage, or at least a stabilisation of trade volumes.
Petroleum and gas trade forecasting has been informed by discussions with industry, as well as future state analysis of global fuels and an expectation of a move towards sustainable fuels.
Assumptions in the model assume that Australia takes a similar path as other countries, such as the United Kingdom, in ultimately phasing out the use of diesel fuel and motor spirit in favour of more sustainable alternatives.
It is also recognised that the South Australian Government appears committed to becoming a producer and net exporter of hydrogen in the short to medium-term, as outlined in South Australia’s Hydrogen Action Plan (September 2019). It is understood that South Australia has already undertaken early projects in this regard, with the aim to become a net exporter in the late 2020’s to 2030’s, however there is significant study yet to occur to quantify this volume.
The resulting forecasts to 2070 are depicted in the following figure.
